基于免疫的关键链项目进度风险控制研究
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摘要
信息化的飞速发展导致了一个基于时间竞争时代的来临,使得项目进度管理在项目管理领域中显得尤为重要,由此催生了诸如关键链等项目进度网络计划技术。然而在这个基于时间竞争的时代中,项目面临着越来越多的风险,许多在确定环境下编制的项目进度计划在动态环境下逐渐显示出其缺陷,许多项目在风险的影响下导致进度延迟,甚至最终导致项目失败。因此,对项目的进度风险进行分析,实现对进度风险的有效控制,从而维护项目进度计划的顺利执行成为了项目进度管理的关键与研究热点。
本文研究了生物免疫与人工免疫系统领域可供项目进度风险管理借鉴的优良机理,在对比分析生物免疫与项目进度风险管理相似性的基础上,提出将免疫思想引入项目进度风险管理领域,提出了项目进度风险免疫的概念,并构建出项目进度风险免疫体系。在此基础上研究了基于免疫的关键链项目进度风险控制的机理,接着对其三个关键技术进行了研究,即关键链缓冲区的确定、关键风险免疫接种和风险学习记忆机制。最后通过VC++语言编写程序实现了这三个关键技术。
本文是在引入免疫相关理念基础上构建出了项目进度风险免疫体系并实现了对关键链项目进度风险控制技术的改进,是在将免疫应用于项目进度风险管理领域所做出的有益探索,研究结果在一定程度上丰富了项目风险管理领域的内容,且对项目组织认识项目进度风险、有效管理项目进度风险、维持项目进度稳定均具有一定的现实指导意义。
The rapid development of information technology has led to an era of time-based competition, making the project schedule management particularly important in the field of project management, thus gave birth to Critical Chain Project Management and other project progress network planning techniques. However, in this era of time-based competition, the projects are facing more risks. Many project schedules that are constructed in determinate environments gradually show their shortcomings in dynamic environments, many of the project schedules delay because of the influence of risks, and even ultimately lead to project failure. Therefore, analyze the progress of a project, control the risk of progress effectively, and finally ensuring the smooth implementation of the project schedule has become the key to the project schedule management and focus of research.
The paper studies excellent mechanisms in the field of biological immunity and artificial immune system that can be used as a source of reference in project schedule risk management. On the basis of a comparative analysis of the similarities between biological risk management and project schedule risk management, the paper proposes introducing the idea of immune to the project schedule risk management and the concept of project schedule risk immune, and build up the immune system for the project schedule risk. On this basis, the paper studies immune-based Critical Chain project schedule risk control mechanism, then studies the three key technologies, which are the buffer setting of the Critical Chain, the vaccination of the key risks, and the mechanism of the risk study and memory. Lastly, the three key technologies are achieved by a procedure compiled with VC++ language.
The paper constructs a project schedule risk immune system and achieves improvements of the Critical Chain project schedule risk control technology on the basis of introduction of immune-related ideas, It is a beneficial exploration in applying immunization to the field of project schedule risk management. The research results enriched the content of project risk management to certain extent; and also have a certain degree of practical significance in cognition schedule risk, effective management of project schedule risk and the maintenance of project progress and stability.
本文研究了生物免疫与人工免疫系统领域可供项目进度风险管理借鉴的优良机理,在对比分析生物免疫与项目进度风险管理相似性的基础上,提出将免疫思想引入项目进度风险管理领域,提出了项目进度风险免疫的概念,并构建出项目进度风险免疫体系。在此基础上研究了基于免疫的关键链项目进度风险控制的机理,接着对其三个关键技术进行了研究,即关键链缓冲区的确定、关键风险免疫接种和风险学习记忆机制。最后通过VC++语言编写程序实现了这三个关键技术。
本文是在引入免疫相关理念基础上构建出了项目进度风险免疫体系并实现了对关键链项目进度风险控制技术的改进,是在将免疫应用于项目进度风险管理领域所做出的有益探索,研究结果在一定程度上丰富了项目风险管理领域的内容,且对项目组织认识项目进度风险、有效管理项目进度风险、维持项目进度稳定均具有一定的现实指导意义。
The rapid development of information technology has led to an era of time-based competition, making the project schedule management particularly important in the field of project management, thus gave birth to Critical Chain Project Management and other project progress network planning techniques. However, in this era of time-based competition, the projects are facing more risks. Many project schedules that are constructed in determinate environments gradually show their shortcomings in dynamic environments, many of the project schedules delay because of the influence of risks, and even ultimately lead to project failure. Therefore, analyze the progress of a project, control the risk of progress effectively, and finally ensuring the smooth implementation of the project schedule has become the key to the project schedule management and focus of research.
The paper studies excellent mechanisms in the field of biological immunity and artificial immune system that can be used as a source of reference in project schedule risk management. On the basis of a comparative analysis of the similarities between biological risk management and project schedule risk management, the paper proposes introducing the idea of immune to the project schedule risk management and the concept of project schedule risk immune, and build up the immune system for the project schedule risk. On this basis, the paper studies immune-based Critical Chain project schedule risk control mechanism, then studies the three key technologies, which are the buffer setting of the Critical Chain, the vaccination of the key risks, and the mechanism of the risk study and memory. Lastly, the three key technologies are achieved by a procedure compiled with VC++ language.
The paper constructs a project schedule risk immune system and achieves improvements of the Critical Chain project schedule risk control technology on the basis of introduction of immune-related ideas, It is a beneficial exploration in applying immunization to the field of project schedule risk management. The research results enriched the content of project risk management to certain extent; and also have a certain degree of practical significance in cognition schedule risk, effective management of project schedule risk and the maintenance of project progress and stability.
引文
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[5]欧阳斌.工程网络计划进度风险分析及关键链进度计划法研究：[天津大学硕士学位论文].天津：天津大学建筑工程学院,2003
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