产品内贸易：原理、效应及对中国的适用性分析
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摘要
产品内贸易是近几年来理论界与实务界争论的热点。各方对产品内贸易的正面作用、负面效应以及中国是否适合继续做产品内贸易等问题存在很多分歧。本文一开始避开这些争议,从产品内贸易在东亚发展的特征事实入手,阐明产品内贸易的基本原理,接着站在客观的立场上,用描述性统计、理论分析与实证计量相结合的方法,较为全面的检验了产品内贸易对贸易的效应以及对宏观经济的效应,在此基础之上得出本文的结论并给出进一步开展产品内贸易的政策建议。
本论文共分六章,各部分的主要内容如下:
第一章为引论,介绍了本文的研究背景及研究意义,对国内外相关文献进行了综述,说明了本文的逻辑结构和主要创新。
第二章从三个角度探讨了产品内贸易在东亚发展的特征事实。第一个角度是从贸易流本身出发,发现东亚的贸易流量出现了非线性增长的势头;第二个角度的观察来自于东亚经济增长与产业升级;第三个角度是从东亚整体的经济贸易模式方面进行考察,发现“雁阵模式”已经破产,取而代之的是东亚国际生产网络,中国在其中发挥了重要作用,并形成一种新的“三角贸易模式”。之后,站在产品内贸易的视角,对这些特征事实进行了初步解释。
第三章解释了产品内贸易的成因,指出技术进步导致的模块化生产方式与贸易成本下降引发了产品内贸易。接着,对产品内贸易等相关概念进行界定,对1997、2000、2002年我国各部门垂直专业化比率进行测算,发现通讯、机械制造业垂直专业化比率较高。然后分析了产品内贸易的理论基础——比较优势与规模经济。详细阐述了Deardorff对产品内贸易条件下比较优势的界定。运用二维平面图,说明比较优势与规模经济对产品内贸易的作用。随后分析了产品内贸易的两种组织形式,强调特定要素的稀缺引发了外包,技术禀赋差异引起垂直专业化,并借助Grbssman与Helpman的模型加以论证。在章末,实证检验了产品内贸易的影响因素,发现良好的基础设施、较低的劳动力工资、较低的单位邮电费用以及大量的FDI能够促进产品内贸易的发展。
第四章回顾了加工贸易、中间产品贸易这两种产品内贸易形式在中国发展的情况,接着考察产品内贸易对贸易流量的影响。随后用RCA、LFI指数分别测算了我国的贸易竞争力与出口商品结构,发现在机械、电子等产品内贸易程度较高的行业,我国贸易竞争力得到了提升,相应的出口商品结构也呈现出高度化的趋势。但是我国的要素禀赋特征并没有发生根本性改变,在价值增值链中依然处于低端。这些变化是产品内贸易带来的假象。一旦跨国公司将生产环节转移到别国,我国贸易竞争力就可能发生逆转。接下来用主流方法测算了1995年至2006年我国四种贸易条件的变动趋势,发现除价格贸易条件之外,我国收入贸易条件、单要素贸易条件、双要素贸易条件均得到改善。编制了四种中间产品进口价格指数并与其他进口价格指数进行对照,发现2002年之后价格贸易条件呈现恶化,并非产品内贸易导致的。在章末,用WTO的统计数据,说明产品内贸易并非是我国贸易摩擦的根源。产品内贸易的外销渠道大多由外方控制,因而能有效避免贸易摩擦。
第五章从五个方面研究了产品内贸易对宏观经济的影响。首先,区分了垂直一体化与外包这两种产品内贸易的组织形式对技术外溢的影响,将交易成本引入到Pack与Saggi(2001)的外包模型,扩展了原始模型的结论。运用实证计量的方法,检验了影响我国技术水平提升的因素。接着,分析了产品内贸易促进经济增长的机理,主要有闲置资源的充分利用与“干中学”效应,然后用简单的国民经济恒等式测算了产品内贸易对经济增长的贡献率、贡献度。随后实证检验了产品内贸易进出口、一般贸易进出口与GDP之间的关系,发现产品内贸易出口比一般贸易出口更能促进经济增长。在该章的三、四两节,分别研究了产品内贸易对我国收入分配、就业的影响。其主要结论是:过快的产业升级会拉大我国收入差距,适当的承接符合我国劳动力要素禀赋特征的中间产品生产环节,能够增加就业,缩小收入差距。第五节研究了产品内贸易的国际收支效应。发现产品内贸易是我国外贸顺差的主要来源,它的发展也带来我国外汇储备激增的问题。由于产品内贸易自身的特点,很难通过汇率调整削减顺差。在节末构造了VAR系统,用脉冲响应函数、方差分解等方法进行了实证检验。
第六章是全文的结论。通过理论分析与实证检验,对产品内贸易做出客观的评价,并就进一步开展产品内贸易提供对策建议。
Intra-product trade is the hot topic both theoretically and practically in recent years. Each party has many divergences about the positive and negative effects of intra-product trade and whether China is adapt to develop it. This dissertation avoids these controversies firstly, it starts with the characteristic of the intra-product trade which develops in East Asia, it elaborates the fundamental principals of intra-product trade, and then from the objective point of view, it combines describing statistics, theoretical analysis and empirical analysis in order to check up the intra-product trade's effects on trade itself and macro economy. Basing on it, we draw the conclusions and bring forward the political advice on the further development of intra-product trade.
This dissertation is divided into six sections, the major contents of each part is as follows:
The first chapter is the introduction; it introduces the background and study purpose of this dissertation, summarizes the related literature both in China and abroad, explains the logistics and major innovations of this dissertation.
The second chapter discusses the characteristics of intra-product trade which develops in East Asia from three angles. The first angle is from the trade flow itself, it discovers the non-linear trend of East Asia trade flow; the second angle is from the economic growth of East Asia and industry upgrade; the third angle is from the whole economy and trade pattern of East Asia, it finds that the goose pattern has gone bankrupt, the East Asia international production network takes its place, China plays an important role in it, and forms a new triangle trade pattern. Subsequently, from the intra-product trade point of view, it makes a preliminary explanation of the characteristics.
The third chapter explains the reasons for the intra-product trade, it points out that the modular production which was resulted by the breakthrough of technology and the trade cost reduction leads to intra-product trade. Then, it makes the concept of intra-product trade clear, calculates the vertical specialization of each industry sector in China in the year 1997, 2000 and 2002. It founds that the vertical specialization in communication industry and manufacturing industry is very high. Afterwards, it makes analysis of comparative advantage and scale economy which are the theoretical foundation of intra-product trade. It elaborates the comparative advantage in intra-product trade which was defined by Deardorff. It makes use of two dimension map, illustrates the effects on intra-product trade which were made by comparative advantage and scale economy. Later, it analyzes the two organization forms of intra-product trade, emphasizes the scarce of specific factor leads to outsourcing, the differences of technology endowments lead to vertical specialization, and demonstrates it in virtue of Grossman and Helpman's model. At the end of this chapter, it verifies the factors which could affect intra-product trade, and finds that the favorable infrastructure, low labor salaries, low unit postage and large scale FDI could promote the development of intra-product trade.
The fourth chapter reviews the development of processing trade and intermediate trade which are the two forms of intra-product trade in China; afterwards it checks the effects on trade flow which are made by intra-product trade. Then it calculates Chinese trade competition force and export goods' structure by RCA and LFI respectively, finds that in highly intra-product trade industry such as machinery and electronic industry, Chinese trade competition force improves significantly, the relevant export goods' structure enhances. But Chinese factor endowment doesn't change fundamentally; it is still at the low end of value added line. These changes are the feint brought by intra-product trade. In case multinational companies transfer production tache to other countries, Chinese trade competition force may be reverse. Afterwards, it uses mainstream method to calculate Chinese four kinds of terms of trade from 1995 to 2006, finds that Chinese income terms of trade, single factor terms of trade, double factors terms of trade improve except for price terms of trade. It works out import price terms of trade which is composed by four kinds of intermediate goods, and compare it with other import price index, finds that after 2002, the price terms of trade deteriorates, but it is not the result of intra-product trade. At the end of this chapter, it uses statistics of WTO, illustrates that intra-product trade is not the principal reason for Chinese trade friction. Most of intra-product trade's export channel is controlled by foreigners, so it can avoid trade friction effectively.
The fifth chapter investigates the effects of intra-product trade on macro economy from five aspects. At first, it distinguishes the effects on technology spillover between vertical specialization and outsourcing which are the two organization forms, introduces transaction cost into Pack and Saggi's outsourcing model, and enlarges the results of original model. It uses economy method to check up the factors which could work on Chinese technology improvement. Then, it analyzes the mechanism which intra-product trade stimulates economic growth, the main mechanisms are the making fully use of the unused resources and the learning by doing effect. Afterwards, it uses simple country economy identical equation to calculate the contribution ratio and contribution degree of intra-product trade on economy. Subsequently, it checks up the relationship between intra-product trade, common trade and GDP, and finds that intra-product export trade could stimulate economic growth further than common export trade. In the third and fourth sector of this chapter, it makes research on the effects of intra-product trade on Chinese income distribution and employment respectively. The main conclusions are that rapid industry upgrade will increase Chinese income distribution disparity; carrying on intermediate products production which is suitable for Chinese labor endowment character could increase employment, decrease income disparity. The fifth sector analyzes the effects of intra-product trade on international balance, finds that intra-product trade is the main source of Chinese trade surplus, its development brings sharp increase of Chinese foreign exchange reserve. Due to the characteristics of intra-product trade itself, it is hard to reduce surplus through exchange rate adjustment. At the end of this sector, it constructs the VAR system, uses impulse response function, variance decompose to make empirical analysis.
The six chapter is the conclusion of this dissertation. Through theoretical analysis and empirical analysis, it makes objective judgment on intra-product trade, and provides suggestions on how to further carry on intra-product trade.
本论文共分六章,各部分的主要内容如下:
第一章为引论,介绍了本文的研究背景及研究意义,对国内外相关文献进行了综述,说明了本文的逻辑结构和主要创新。
第二章从三个角度探讨了产品内贸易在东亚发展的特征事实。第一个角度是从贸易流本身出发,发现东亚的贸易流量出现了非线性增长的势头;第二个角度的观察来自于东亚经济增长与产业升级;第三个角度是从东亚整体的经济贸易模式方面进行考察,发现“雁阵模式”已经破产,取而代之的是东亚国际生产网络,中国在其中发挥了重要作用,并形成一种新的“三角贸易模式”。之后,站在产品内贸易的视角,对这些特征事实进行了初步解释。
第三章解释了产品内贸易的成因,指出技术进步导致的模块化生产方式与贸易成本下降引发了产品内贸易。接着,对产品内贸易等相关概念进行界定,对1997、2000、2002年我国各部门垂直专业化比率进行测算,发现通讯、机械制造业垂直专业化比率较高。然后分析了产品内贸易的理论基础——比较优势与规模经济。详细阐述了Deardorff对产品内贸易条件下比较优势的界定。运用二维平面图,说明比较优势与规模经济对产品内贸易的作用。随后分析了产品内贸易的两种组织形式,强调特定要素的稀缺引发了外包,技术禀赋差异引起垂直专业化,并借助Grbssman与Helpman的模型加以论证。在章末,实证检验了产品内贸易的影响因素,发现良好的基础设施、较低的劳动力工资、较低的单位邮电费用以及大量的FDI能够促进产品内贸易的发展。
第四章回顾了加工贸易、中间产品贸易这两种产品内贸易形式在中国发展的情况,接着考察产品内贸易对贸易流量的影响。随后用RCA、LFI指数分别测算了我国的贸易竞争力与出口商品结构,发现在机械、电子等产品内贸易程度较高的行业,我国贸易竞争力得到了提升,相应的出口商品结构也呈现出高度化的趋势。但是我国的要素禀赋特征并没有发生根本性改变,在价值增值链中依然处于低端。这些变化是产品内贸易带来的假象。一旦跨国公司将生产环节转移到别国,我国贸易竞争力就可能发生逆转。接下来用主流方法测算了1995年至2006年我国四种贸易条件的变动趋势,发现除价格贸易条件之外,我国收入贸易条件、单要素贸易条件、双要素贸易条件均得到改善。编制了四种中间产品进口价格指数并与其他进口价格指数进行对照,发现2002年之后价格贸易条件呈现恶化,并非产品内贸易导致的。在章末,用WTO的统计数据,说明产品内贸易并非是我国贸易摩擦的根源。产品内贸易的外销渠道大多由外方控制,因而能有效避免贸易摩擦。
第五章从五个方面研究了产品内贸易对宏观经济的影响。首先,区分了垂直一体化与外包这两种产品内贸易的组织形式对技术外溢的影响,将交易成本引入到Pack与Saggi(2001)的外包模型,扩展了原始模型的结论。运用实证计量的方法,检验了影响我国技术水平提升的因素。接着,分析了产品内贸易促进经济增长的机理,主要有闲置资源的充分利用与“干中学”效应,然后用简单的国民经济恒等式测算了产品内贸易对经济增长的贡献率、贡献度。随后实证检验了产品内贸易进出口、一般贸易进出口与GDP之间的关系,发现产品内贸易出口比一般贸易出口更能促进经济增长。在该章的三、四两节,分别研究了产品内贸易对我国收入分配、就业的影响。其主要结论是:过快的产业升级会拉大我国收入差距,适当的承接符合我国劳动力要素禀赋特征的中间产品生产环节,能够增加就业,缩小收入差距。第五节研究了产品内贸易的国际收支效应。发现产品内贸易是我国外贸顺差的主要来源,它的发展也带来我国外汇储备激增的问题。由于产品内贸易自身的特点,很难通过汇率调整削减顺差。在节末构造了VAR系统,用脉冲响应函数、方差分解等方法进行了实证检验。
第六章是全文的结论。通过理论分析与实证检验,对产品内贸易做出客观的评价,并就进一步开展产品内贸易提供对策建议。
Intra-product trade is the hot topic both theoretically and practically in recent years. Each party has many divergences about the positive and negative effects of intra-product trade and whether China is adapt to develop it. This dissertation avoids these controversies firstly, it starts with the characteristic of the intra-product trade which develops in East Asia, it elaborates the fundamental principals of intra-product trade, and then from the objective point of view, it combines describing statistics, theoretical analysis and empirical analysis in order to check up the intra-product trade's effects on trade itself and macro economy. Basing on it, we draw the conclusions and bring forward the political advice on the further development of intra-product trade.
This dissertation is divided into six sections, the major contents of each part is as follows:
The first chapter is the introduction; it introduces the background and study purpose of this dissertation, summarizes the related literature both in China and abroad, explains the logistics and major innovations of this dissertation.
The second chapter discusses the characteristics of intra-product trade which develops in East Asia from three angles. The first angle is from the trade flow itself, it discovers the non-linear trend of East Asia trade flow; the second angle is from the economic growth of East Asia and industry upgrade; the third angle is from the whole economy and trade pattern of East Asia, it finds that the goose pattern has gone bankrupt, the East Asia international production network takes its place, China plays an important role in it, and forms a new triangle trade pattern. Subsequently, from the intra-product trade point of view, it makes a preliminary explanation of the characteristics.
The third chapter explains the reasons for the intra-product trade, it points out that the modular production which was resulted by the breakthrough of technology and the trade cost reduction leads to intra-product trade. Then, it makes the concept of intra-product trade clear, calculates the vertical specialization of each industry sector in China in the year 1997, 2000 and 2002. It founds that the vertical specialization in communication industry and manufacturing industry is very high. Afterwards, it makes analysis of comparative advantage and scale economy which are the theoretical foundation of intra-product trade. It elaborates the comparative advantage in intra-product trade which was defined by Deardorff. It makes use of two dimension map, illustrates the effects on intra-product trade which were made by comparative advantage and scale economy. Later, it analyzes the two organization forms of intra-product trade, emphasizes the scarce of specific factor leads to outsourcing, the differences of technology endowments lead to vertical specialization, and demonstrates it in virtue of Grossman and Helpman's model. At the end of this chapter, it verifies the factors which could affect intra-product trade, and finds that the favorable infrastructure, low labor salaries, low unit postage and large scale FDI could promote the development of intra-product trade.
The fourth chapter reviews the development of processing trade and intermediate trade which are the two forms of intra-product trade in China; afterwards it checks the effects on trade flow which are made by intra-product trade. Then it calculates Chinese trade competition force and export goods' structure by RCA and LFI respectively, finds that in highly intra-product trade industry such as machinery and electronic industry, Chinese trade competition force improves significantly, the relevant export goods' structure enhances. But Chinese factor endowment doesn't change fundamentally; it is still at the low end of value added line. These changes are the feint brought by intra-product trade. In case multinational companies transfer production tache to other countries, Chinese trade competition force may be reverse. Afterwards, it uses mainstream method to calculate Chinese four kinds of terms of trade from 1995 to 2006, finds that Chinese income terms of trade, single factor terms of trade, double factors terms of trade improve except for price terms of trade. It works out import price terms of trade which is composed by four kinds of intermediate goods, and compare it with other import price index, finds that after 2002, the price terms of trade deteriorates, but it is not the result of intra-product trade. At the end of this chapter, it uses statistics of WTO, illustrates that intra-product trade is not the principal reason for Chinese trade friction. Most of intra-product trade's export channel is controlled by foreigners, so it can avoid trade friction effectively.
The fifth chapter investigates the effects of intra-product trade on macro economy from five aspects. At first, it distinguishes the effects on technology spillover between vertical specialization and outsourcing which are the two organization forms, introduces transaction cost into Pack and Saggi's outsourcing model, and enlarges the results of original model. It uses economy method to check up the factors which could work on Chinese technology improvement. Then, it analyzes the mechanism which intra-product trade stimulates economic growth, the main mechanisms are the making fully use of the unused resources and the learning by doing effect. Afterwards, it uses simple country economy identical equation to calculate the contribution ratio and contribution degree of intra-product trade on economy. Subsequently, it checks up the relationship between intra-product trade, common trade and GDP, and finds that intra-product export trade could stimulate economic growth further than common export trade. In the third and fourth sector of this chapter, it makes research on the effects of intra-product trade on Chinese income distribution and employment respectively. The main conclusions are that rapid industry upgrade will increase Chinese income distribution disparity; carrying on intermediate products production which is suitable for Chinese labor endowment character could increase employment, decrease income disparity. The fifth sector analyzes the effects of intra-product trade on international balance, finds that intra-product trade is the main source of Chinese trade surplus, its development brings sharp increase of Chinese foreign exchange reserve. Due to the characteristics of intra-product trade itself, it is hard to reduce surplus through exchange rate adjustment. At the end of this sector, it constructs the VAR system, uses impulse response function, variance decompose to make empirical analysis.
The six chapter is the conclusion of this dissertation. Through theoretical analysis and empirical analysis, it makes objective judgment on intra-product trade, and provides suggestions on how to further carry on intra-product trade.
引文
1数据来源:国家统计局,《国民经济和社会发展统计公报》,2007
1本文所指的东亚主要包括东盟(特别是老东盟六国,分别是文莱、印度尼西亚、马来西亚、菲律宾、新加坡、泰国)、NIEs(香港、新加坡、韩国、台湾),中国与日本。
2这部分内容参考了张玉柯.从GATT到WTO:全球多边贸易体系的发展[J].河北大学学报,2002,27(2):91-95.
3宫占奎、李文韬.中国-东盟经济合作框架比较研究[J].南开学报,2004,1:107-112.
4王晓德.贸易自由化与拉美国家的经济发展[J].拉丁美洲研究,2002,2:12-17.
5Enrique lglesias,Reflections on Economic Development:Toward a New Latin American Consensus,Washington:Inter-American Development Bank,1992,E29.
6Eduardo Lora,A Decade of Structural Reforms in Latin American:What Has Been Reformed and How to Measure it,Inter-American Development Bank,Working Paper Green Series,No.348,1997,P.5.
7金戈.台湾产业结构变迁的经验对于浙江产业升级的启示[J].技术经济,2007,26(12):60-64.
8刘焰、邓明然.加工贸易:一种贸易模式向经济增长方式的演变[J].学习论坛,2007,23(1):36-38.
9郑京淑、李佳.“后雁形模式”与东亚贸易结构的变化[J].世界经济与政治论坛,2007,2:6-11.
102001年5月18日,日本政府发表了题为《面对21世纪对外经济政策挑战》的贸易白皮书,在这份官方文件中首次承认,日本充当亚洲经济发展领头雁的“雁行模式”已经崩溃,取而代之的是急速成长的中国经济,并预言亚洲从此将进入真正的“大竞争时代”。
11Borrus,M.,Emes,D.and Haggard,S.Intemational Production Networks in Asia:Rivalry or Riches[M].London and New York:Routledge,2000.
12传统“三角贸易”指16世纪开始的奴隶贸易,即欧洲商人将廉价工业品运到非洲换取奴隶,把黑奴运到美洲卖掉,从美洲购回生产原料,制成商品再运到非洲以换取奴隶的循环贸易活动。它历时四百年之久。东亚的三角贸易模式不同于传统的三角贸易,因而称为新“三角贸易”模式。
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2参考黄满盈.中国贸易条件实证分析(1981.2004)[D].北京:对外经贸大学,2006:
3数据来源:http://www.wto.org/english/tratop_e/scm_e/scm_e.htm
4据江小涓在2000-2001年主持的一系列调研项目显示,被调查对象中72%的企业使用母公司原有的销售渠道;在最终产品的生产企业中,出口商品中有较大比例返销回母国的企业约占52%。
2世贸组织的宗旨就是“降低各自的关税壁垒和非关税壁垒,建立一个‘开放、公平、无扭曲'的多边贸易体系”。
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7国家统计局在统计过程中不计入年销售收入500万以下的非国有企业,因此“规模以上企业”泛指年产品销售收入500万元以上的企业。
8http://news.sina.eom.cn/e/2008-08-04/024616054349.shtml
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1本文所指的东亚主要包括东盟(特别是老东盟六国,分别是文莱、印度尼西亚、马来西亚、菲律宾、新加坡、泰国)、NIEs(香港、新加坡、韩国、台湾),中国与日本。
2这部分内容参考了张玉柯.从GATT到WTO:全球多边贸易体系的发展[J].河北大学学报,2002,27(2):91-95.
3宫占奎、李文韬.中国-东盟经济合作框架比较研究[J].南开学报,2004,1:107-112.
4王晓德.贸易自由化与拉美国家的经济发展[J].拉丁美洲研究,2002,2:12-17.
5Enrique lglesias,Reflections on Economic Development:Toward a New Latin American Consensus,Washington:Inter-American Development Bank,1992,E29.
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102001年5月18日,日本政府发表了题为《面对21世纪对外经济政策挑战》的贸易白皮书,在这份官方文件中首次承认,日本充当亚洲经济发展领头雁的“雁行模式”已经崩溃,取而代之的是急速成长的中国经济,并预言亚洲从此将进入真正的“大竞争时代”。
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12传统“三角贸易”指16世纪开始的奴隶贸易,即欧洲商人将廉价工业品运到非洲换取奴隶,把黑奴运到美洲卖掉,从美洲购回生产原料,制成商品再运到非洲以换取奴隶的循环贸易活动。它历时四百年之久。东亚的三角贸易模式不同于传统的三角贸易,因而称为新“三角贸易”模式。
13陆燕.从贸易数据看当前贸易发展的新特点[J].国际贸易,2007,11:37-41.
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1刘德学.全球生产网络与加工贸易升级[M].2006,暨南大学出版社
2参考黄满盈.中国贸易条件实证分析(1981.2004)[D].北京:对外经贸大学,2006:
3数据来源:http://www.wto.org/english/tratop_e/scm_e/scm_e.htm
4据江小涓在2000-2001年主持的一系列调研项目显示,被调查对象中72%的企业使用母公司原有的销售渠道;在最终产品的生产企业中,出口商品中有较大比例返销回母国的企业约占52%。
2世贸组织的宗旨就是“降低各自的关税壁垒和非关税壁垒,建立一个‘开放、公平、无扭曲'的多边贸易体系”。
3易雪玲.我国加工贸易“贫困化增长”效应分析[J].湖南师范大学社会科学学报.2007,4:106-109.
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7国家统计局在统计过程中不计入年销售收入500万以下的非国有企业,因此“规模以上企业”泛指年产品销售收入500万元以上的企业。
8http://news.sina.eom.cn/e/2008-08-04/024616054349.shtml
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