大尺度水文模型及其与陆面模式的耦合研究
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摘要
为了确定大尺度区域水文循环及能量收支、能够根据GCM给出的气候预测，研究和解决变化环境中的水文水资源问题，评估和监测大流域的径流过程和水资源量的动态变化规律，需要研制和建立大尺度分布式水文模型。气候变化中陆面水文过程既是重要的参与者，同时也受到这些变化的影响。对气候模型中陆面水文过程的了解和模拟能力，依然是气候变化可靠预测的前提。目前气候模式中对水文过程处理相当粗糙，尤其是对径流作过分简单的处理。为了改善全球环流模型中对陆面水文过程的描述，提高气候模型的模拟预测精度，有必要实现大尺度水文模型与气候模型的联结耦合。
为了研究变化环境中的水文水资源问题以及改善陆面模式中对水文过程的描述，以提高GCM的模拟预测精度，本文主要进行了以下研究内容：
(1)分布式大尺度水文模型的研制及应用。以新安江流域水文模型为基础，建立了以网格为计算单元适合大尺度应用、时间尺度为月的分布式水文模型。所建模型主要供评价气候变化对水文水资源影响之用，同时也为陆气耦合所要求的水文模式作初步探讨。研究区域为淮河流域27万平方公里，并对该流域1953-1985年的逐月流量过程进行了模拟计算，分析了假定的气候变化情景对淮河流域年径流的影响。
(2)新安江网格化月水文模型的改进。由于计算时段加长，雨强均化，导致原新安江月水文模型在淮河流域的应用中，网格径流深出现了大量不合理的零值。本文提出了改进办法，通过对模型应用结果的分析，说明改进后的新安江月水文模型，其产流计算更加合理。针对研究过程中所遇到的实际问题，本文提出了两种解集方法，将月降雨量解集到日。然后以时间步长为日，运行新安江模型，用模拟的月径流过程验证了解集方法的合理性。
(3)水文模型与陆面模式的耦合研究。这里耦合的含义是指，把水文学中的产汇流概念和理论用于陆面模式中以改善以往陆面模式对水文过程描述的不足。而已包含在气候模型中的陆面模式正是水文模型与气候模型耦合的共同界面。本文在已建立的陆面模式AVIM中，引入产汇流模型，模拟了内蒙古锡林河流域1991-1994年的土壤温湿状况、地表通量和径流量。并对耦合水文模型的陆面模式做了敏感性试验，结果表明，陆面模式中径流的描述合理与否，将
＠8
一
对土壤温湿及地表通量产生显著影响。
Developing and establishing Macro-scale distributed hydrological model are required in order to make certain the regional water and energy cycle, study and resolve the hydrology and water resources problems under the changing environment according to the climatic prediction of GCM.
As a branch of hydrologic cycle, land-surface hydrologic processes are nearly relative to atmospheric circle by water and energy exchange between land-surface and atmosphere. Land-surface hydrologic processes are not only the main participants in climate change but are effected by the change. The capacity of understanding and simulating the land-surface hydrological processes in climatic model is the premise to accurate climate prediction. The parameterization of land-surface hydrological processes in present climatic model is quite coarse, and especially the treatment of runoff is too simple. It is needed that the coupling between Macro-scale hydrological model and climatic model for improving the parameterization of land-surface hydrological processes in GCM and the accuracy of GCM prediction.
The main contents of research work in this paper are as follows:
(1) The development and application of the Macro-scale distributed hydrological model. The Xin'anjiang Model is used as the basic model to develop a monthly grid-based distributed hydrological model for Macro-scale geographic domain. The model is mainly for assessing the effects of climate change on hydrology and water resources. The Huaihe River Basin with the area of 270,000 km2 is selected as the research area. The monthly discharge from 1953 through 1985 is simulated. And the applications have been performed to simulate the effects of climate change on the water resources of Huaihe River Basin.
(2) The improvement of grid-based monthly hydrological model. Due to the increase of time interval and decrease of precipitation intensity within a month, no monthly runoff appears in some gridded cells as the Xin'anjiang monthly hydrological model is applied to the Huaihe River Basin. An improved modification in the model is described. As a result, the modified model performs more reasonably in runoff
production. Two methods of downscaling of monthly precipitation to daily resolution are considered and the model results are compared. The two methods are validated by running the Xin'anjiang model at a daily time step from the monthly data, and the model outputs are more accurate than the monthly hydrological model.
(3) The coupling between hydrological model and land surface processes model. The coupling here means that the conception and philosophy of runoff generation and routing scheme in hydrology are introduced to land surface model. The land surface model, which has been coupled to GCM, is the common interface for the coupling between hydrological model and climatic model. The treatment of hydrological processes in land surface scheme AVTM is too rough, and runoff is simply an excess of precipitation over evapotranspiration. The parameterization of runoff generation in AVIM is improved. To represent the heterogeneity of topography, vegetation surface cover and soils, the "storage capacity distribution curve" in the Xin'anjiang model is included in AVIM. In order to evaluate the surface water budgets of AVIM and to evaluate the ability to simulate runoff, the implementation of AVIM to Xilinhe drainage basin (in Mongolia) and daily streamflow simulations from the year 1991 to 1994 are presented. The results of sensitive experiments indicate that runoff will directly affect the change of soil moisture states, thus affect sensible and latent heat fluxes and other energy terms.
为了研究变化环境中的水文水资源问题以及改善陆面模式中对水文过程的描述，以提高GCM的模拟预测精度，本文主要进行了以下研究内容：
(1)分布式大尺度水文模型的研制及应用。以新安江流域水文模型为基础，建立了以网格为计算单元适合大尺度应用、时间尺度为月的分布式水文模型。所建模型主要供评价气候变化对水文水资源影响之用，同时也为陆气耦合所要求的水文模式作初步探讨。研究区域为淮河流域27万平方公里，并对该流域1953-1985年的逐月流量过程进行了模拟计算，分析了假定的气候变化情景对淮河流域年径流的影响。
(2)新安江网格化月水文模型的改进。由于计算时段加长，雨强均化，导致原新安江月水文模型在淮河流域的应用中，网格径流深出现了大量不合理的零值。本文提出了改进办法，通过对模型应用结果的分析，说明改进后的新安江月水文模型，其产流计算更加合理。针对研究过程中所遇到的实际问题，本文提出了两种解集方法，将月降雨量解集到日。然后以时间步长为日，运行新安江模型，用模拟的月径流过程验证了解集方法的合理性。
(3)水文模型与陆面模式的耦合研究。这里耦合的含义是指，把水文学中的产汇流概念和理论用于陆面模式中以改善以往陆面模式对水文过程描述的不足。而已包含在气候模型中的陆面模式正是水文模型与气候模型耦合的共同界面。本文在已建立的陆面模式AVIM中，引入产汇流模型，模拟了内蒙古锡林河流域1991-1994年的土壤温湿状况、地表通量和径流量。并对耦合水文模型的陆面模式做了敏感性试验，结果表明，陆面模式中径流的描述合理与否，将
＠8
一
对土壤温湿及地表通量产生显著影响。
Developing and establishing Macro-scale distributed hydrological model are required in order to make certain the regional water and energy cycle, study and resolve the hydrology and water resources problems under the changing environment according to the climatic prediction of GCM.
As a branch of hydrologic cycle, land-surface hydrologic processes are nearly relative to atmospheric circle by water and energy exchange between land-surface and atmosphere. Land-surface hydrologic processes are not only the main participants in climate change but are effected by the change. The capacity of understanding and simulating the land-surface hydrological processes in climatic model is the premise to accurate climate prediction. The parameterization of land-surface hydrological processes in present climatic model is quite coarse, and especially the treatment of runoff is too simple. It is needed that the coupling between Macro-scale hydrological model and climatic model for improving the parameterization of land-surface hydrological processes in GCM and the accuracy of GCM prediction.
The main contents of research work in this paper are as follows:
(1) The development and application of the Macro-scale distributed hydrological model. The Xin'anjiang Model is used as the basic model to develop a monthly grid-based distributed hydrological model for Macro-scale geographic domain. The model is mainly for assessing the effects of climate change on hydrology and water resources. The Huaihe River Basin with the area of 270,000 km2 is selected as the research area. The monthly discharge from 1953 through 1985 is simulated. And the applications have been performed to simulate the effects of climate change on the water resources of Huaihe River Basin.
(2) The improvement of grid-based monthly hydrological model. Due to the increase of time interval and decrease of precipitation intensity within a month, no monthly runoff appears in some gridded cells as the Xin'anjiang monthly hydrological model is applied to the Huaihe River Basin. An improved modification in the model is described. As a result, the modified model performs more reasonably in runoff
production. Two methods of downscaling of monthly precipitation to daily resolution are considered and the model results are compared. The two methods are validated by running the Xin'anjiang model at a daily time step from the monthly data, and the model outputs are more accurate than the monthly hydrological model.
(3) The coupling between hydrological model and land surface processes model. The coupling here means that the conception and philosophy of runoff generation and routing scheme in hydrology are introduced to land surface model. The land surface model, which has been coupled to GCM, is the common interface for the coupling between hydrological model and climatic model. The treatment of hydrological processes in land surface scheme AVTM is too rough, and runoff is simply an excess of precipitation over evapotranspiration. The parameterization of runoff generation in AVIM is improved. To represent the heterogeneity of topography, vegetation surface cover and soils, the "storage capacity distribution curve" in the Xin'anjiang model is included in AVIM. In order to evaluate the surface water budgets of AVIM and to evaluate the ability to simulate runoff, the implementation of AVIM to Xilinhe drainage basin (in Mongolia) and daily streamflow simulations from the year 1991 to 1994 are presented. The results of sensitive experiments indicate that runoff will directly affect the change of soil moisture states, thus affect sensible and latent heat fluxes and other energy terms.
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