多普勒天气雷达和TCFM导风资料同化在个例分析中的应用研究
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摘要
南京信息工程大学硕士学位论文摘要
本研究以多普勒天气雷达和TCFM导风等遥感资料同化在个例分析中的应用为研究目的,利用NCEP资料、新一代多普勒雷达网、FY-2D气象卫星等观资料,通过诊断、同化模拟以及理论分析等方法,对气象遥感资料的同化方法设计及强对流天气预测等方面的应用进行研究和分析。
以2009年7月一次暴雨和2010年第3号台风灿都为研究对象,用NCEP资料作为背景场,通过ARPS-3DVar和ADAS同化系统直接同化多普勒天气雷达资料,可以看到对气象要素场产生显著的影响和改善。结果表明,多普勒天气雷达资料的同化时次越多,对于风场、水汽场等的调整效果与实际观测越接近,尤其是水汽场,使得短时降水模拟与实况越吻合。个例研究表明,径向速度资料对初始风场调整显著,使中尺度特征明显地表现出来,当积分开始进行1h后,径向速度资料同化试验的水汽场出现大值中心,但这种水汽状况与实际不符；反射率因子资料对初始水汽场调整明显,在风暴发生处产生清晰的水汽中心,当积分进行1h后,反射率因子资料同化试验对风场的调整己经相对清晰,与此时的径向速度同化试验类似,基本可以模拟出风暴的中尺度风场特征,并且在随后的模拟积分中一直保持。因此,个例试验说明反射率因子资料在改进模式预报场方面效果更好。
以2009年第8号台风莫拉克个例作为研究对象,利用TCFM导风技术进行了卫星资料间接同化试验。TCFM云导风资料同化试验对初始的垂直风场调整显著,不论是低、中、高层,在台风眼壁区域均出现强烈的上升运动,且这种特征一直持续数小时。配合此处模式模拟得到的水汽中心,为台风眼壁区的强风暴、降雨创造了条件。同化试验对于台风眼区的螺旋形雨带贡献显著,说明TCFM导风资料同化试验不仅有效调整了模式的垂直速度场,还对降水模拟有了明显改善。
Herein main purpose is study on CINRAD (Chinese Next Generation Weather Radar) and satellite data assimilation in the application of the examples analysis. Based on data of NCEP, CINRAD net, FY-2D meteorological satellite, remote sensing observations assimilaton are studied and analyzed with diagnosis, numerical simulation and theories.
By means of ARPS-3DVar and ADAS (ARPS Data Analysis/Assimilation System), CINRAD observations are assimilated only with NCEP reanalysis data for the forecast of a rainstorm occurred in July 2009, and 2010 No.3 Typhoon Chanthu. Results show that meteorological element fields are improved observably by assimilation experiments. And more assimilation times lead to better wind field, water vapor field and the like, which are closer to observations insitu, especially for water vapor field, leading to the fact that short-time precipitation simulation is also closer to observations. Thereinto radar radial velocity data improve mostly upon initial wind field with obvious mesoscale structures. The corresponding assimilation experiment improves effectively on water vapor field, causing clear water vapor center, just in actual rainstorm center. After one hour integral, reflectivity data's role on wind field is clear and mesoscale structure can be simulated continually, similarly with radial velocity data assimilation experiment. For radial velocity data, followed with the beginning of one hour integral, radial velocity data assimilation experiment appears water vapor centers with great values, wherever these are not concerned with actual condition. It is showed that reflectivity data assimilation experiments are briefly marked on improving forecast fields than that of radial velocity.
Typhoon Morakot is a case to study FY-2D satellite observations indirect assimilation experiments. CMW (Cloud Motion Wind) data from TCFM Tracking Cloud with Combined Fourier Phase Analysis and Maximum Correlation) method data are assimilated into numerical model. CMW data from TCFM method assimilation experiment adjusts effectively on initial vertical wind field, resulting intense ascent motions at eyewall of the typhoon, whatever in lower, middle or upper levels, lasting for hours. These ascent motions are just at the center of modeled water vapor fields, which leading to severe storm and rainfall at eyewall of typhoon Morakot. It is presented that indirect assimilation experiment of CMW data from TCFM method improves effectively not only on vertical velocity field but for precipitation.
本研究以多普勒天气雷达和TCFM导风等遥感资料同化在个例分析中的应用为研究目的,利用NCEP资料、新一代多普勒雷达网、FY-2D气象卫星等观资料,通过诊断、同化模拟以及理论分析等方法,对气象遥感资料的同化方法设计及强对流天气预测等方面的应用进行研究和分析。
以2009年7月一次暴雨和2010年第3号台风灿都为研究对象,用NCEP资料作为背景场,通过ARPS-3DVar和ADAS同化系统直接同化多普勒天气雷达资料,可以看到对气象要素场产生显著的影响和改善。结果表明,多普勒天气雷达资料的同化时次越多,对于风场、水汽场等的调整效果与实际观测越接近,尤其是水汽场,使得短时降水模拟与实况越吻合。个例研究表明,径向速度资料对初始风场调整显著,使中尺度特征明显地表现出来,当积分开始进行1h后,径向速度资料同化试验的水汽场出现大值中心,但这种水汽状况与实际不符；反射率因子资料对初始水汽场调整明显,在风暴发生处产生清晰的水汽中心,当积分进行1h后,反射率因子资料同化试验对风场的调整己经相对清晰,与此时的径向速度同化试验类似,基本可以模拟出风暴的中尺度风场特征,并且在随后的模拟积分中一直保持。因此,个例试验说明反射率因子资料在改进模式预报场方面效果更好。
以2009年第8号台风莫拉克个例作为研究对象,利用TCFM导风技术进行了卫星资料间接同化试验。TCFM云导风资料同化试验对初始的垂直风场调整显著,不论是低、中、高层,在台风眼壁区域均出现强烈的上升运动,且这种特征一直持续数小时。配合此处模式模拟得到的水汽中心,为台风眼壁区的强风暴、降雨创造了条件。同化试验对于台风眼区的螺旋形雨带贡献显著,说明TCFM导风资料同化试验不仅有效调整了模式的垂直速度场,还对降水模拟有了明显改善。
Herein main purpose is study on CINRAD (Chinese Next Generation Weather Radar) and satellite data assimilation in the application of the examples analysis. Based on data of NCEP, CINRAD net, FY-2D meteorological satellite, remote sensing observations assimilaton are studied and analyzed with diagnosis, numerical simulation and theories.
By means of ARPS-3DVar and ADAS (ARPS Data Analysis/Assimilation System), CINRAD observations are assimilated only with NCEP reanalysis data for the forecast of a rainstorm occurred in July 2009, and 2010 No.3 Typhoon Chanthu. Results show that meteorological element fields are improved observably by assimilation experiments. And more assimilation times lead to better wind field, water vapor field and the like, which are closer to observations insitu, especially for water vapor field, leading to the fact that short-time precipitation simulation is also closer to observations. Thereinto radar radial velocity data improve mostly upon initial wind field with obvious mesoscale structures. The corresponding assimilation experiment improves effectively on water vapor field, causing clear water vapor center, just in actual rainstorm center. After one hour integral, reflectivity data's role on wind field is clear and mesoscale structure can be simulated continually, similarly with radial velocity data assimilation experiment. For radial velocity data, followed with the beginning of one hour integral, radial velocity data assimilation experiment appears water vapor centers with great values, wherever these are not concerned with actual condition. It is showed that reflectivity data assimilation experiments are briefly marked on improving forecast fields than that of radial velocity.
Typhoon Morakot is a case to study FY-2D satellite observations indirect assimilation experiments. CMW (Cloud Motion Wind) data from TCFM Tracking Cloud with Combined Fourier Phase Analysis and Maximum Correlation) method data are assimilated into numerical model. CMW data from TCFM method assimilation experiment adjusts effectively on initial vertical wind field, resulting intense ascent motions at eyewall of the typhoon, whatever in lower, middle or upper levels, lasting for hours. These ascent motions are just at the center of modeled water vapor fields, which leading to severe storm and rainfall at eyewall of typhoon Morakot. It is presented that indirect assimilation experiment of CMW data from TCFM method improves effectively not only on vertical velocity field but for precipitation.
引文
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