政府领导绩效评价模型与评价技术研究
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摘要
随着知识经济时代的到来,经济和社会的发展呈现出全球化、信息化、网络化以及非连续性变化的态势,决定经济竞争成败的关键因素逐渐由资本存量转变为知识力量,由于人是知识的载体,竞争的方式也主要表现为人才的竞争,作为优秀人才代表的领导者,其领导素质的高低与领导效率的优劣已经成为市场经济中核心竞争力的重要组分。
20世纪70年代以来,英国、美国等发达国家兴起了一场旨在提高政府绩效的“新政府运动”,其主要特点是以“政府绩效评估”作为核心管理工具,可以说,传统的“行政领导”正在向“绩效领导”转变。如何实现经济增长中“领导人才”这一稀有资源的开发,已经引起各国政府的高度重视和专门研究。
本文在总结以往研究成果和实践经验的基础上,构筑出一种可量化的、更具操作性的政府领导绩效评价的理论方法体系,构建政府领导绩效评价模型,采用定性模拟、边际分析、最优控制分析和数据包络分析等研究方法,通过“科学发展指数”——内含“相对贡献度”、“相对进步效度”、“综合效率指数”和“综合潜力指数”来衡量领导绩效的实力状况,以此刻画领导绩效的总体发展水平和综合进步情况。本文重在研究政府领导绩效的评价框架设计与评价模型构建,而且在评价方法上侧重于运用技术手段。
本文针对政府领导绩效评价进行定性模拟分析,构建了政府领导绩效评价的结构模型,主要由成本子模块、产出子模块、评价子模块、社会子模块和行为子模块组成,并应用定性模拟方法对其运行过程进行定性推理。本文认为在政府组织系统中,领导绩效的总体水平必然体现在投入成本和政府绩效的动态变化之中,结合动态经济学的最优控制理论,应用边际分析和最优控制方法,定量分析所投入的主观努力、边际成本以及政府绩效的边际产出对于领导绩效的影响度。
本文认为领导绩效是政府绩效的代表性反映,将领导绩效从政府绩效中分离出来,真实地刻画出领导主体的相对贡献度,为进一步实施领导绩效评价奠定坚实的基础。本文通过工作实绩的动态变化,以全局为视角,以前后时期为基准,以有效努力程度为核心,应用“三次相对评价”方法,通过前期指标和现期指标在类比群体中的差异对照测算行为绩效的相对进步效度。
本文以社会系统的持续发展为目标,以领导主体的工作职能和工作实绩为依据,应用“成本-效益”方法测算科学发展指数,由此评价领导主体的合格程度、胜任程度和优秀程度。本文结合新时期黑龙江省地方政府的领导绩效情况进行实证研究,分析领导成本的“优化机制”和领导效益的“后馈效应”,从评价结果中了解更深层次的信息,发挥由表及里、由此及彼和融会贯通的功能和效用,提高地方政府领导的工作效率,降低领导成本,从而实现政府领导绩效的优化。
对于政府领导绩效评价的综合研究,我们只有瞄准国内外领导绩效研究的技术前沿,充分借鉴和利用所有与领导绩效有关的知识,形成多学科、多方法综合运用的格局,从更深的层次发掘领导绩效的底蕴,不断改进和突破已有的定量分析方法,使我国的政府领导绩效研究在科学理论的指导下不断成熟。
Following the general trend of globalization and information and intermittence derived from knowledge economy, the key factors of economic competition is decided by knowledge instead of capital assets. Because human acts as the carrier of knowledge, main body of economic competition chiefly shows talent competition. In system of knowledge economy, leader is regarded as more important human resource, recombines factor of production which becomes basic motive force of economic growth, whose quality and efficiency have been the major composition of the core competition in market economic. We have not evaded the crucial question that how to exist and develop in the complex economic structure and how to compete with foreign opponents in the same international arena.
From the 1970s, the developed countries, such as England and the U.S.A., have proposed“New Government Movement”to promote government performance (GP), regarding“Government Performance Evaluation”as the key means, that is, great changes from“Administrative Leader”to“Performance Leader”have been taking place. Governments surrounding the world have paid more attention to technical study on how to exploit the rare human resource,“leader”, in the process of economic development.
This paper forms a general theoretical structure of evaluation of government leaders’performance (GLP) which is easy to quantitative analysis and practical measurement, sets up the evaluation model of GLP, adopts evaluation methods of qualitative reasoning and marginal analysis and optimal control and data envelopment analysis, measures comprehensive strength of GLP by scientific development index composed of relative contribution effectiveness and relative progress effectiveness and comprehensive efficiency index and comprehensive potentiality index, reflects overall development and comprehensive progress of GLP. This paper emphasizes on designing evaluation structure and constructing evaluation model of GLP, and also on putting to use technical means on evaluation way.
First, this paper sets up the evaluation structure model of GLP which consists of five subsections, such as cost subsection and outcome subsection and evaluation subsection and society subsection and action subsection. Five subsections depend on each other and interact mutually, in which evaluation subsection connects each subsection. Then the operation process of evaluation of GLP is qualitatively simulated by the method of qualitative reasoning.
Second, this paper points out that GLP is decided by action performance and cost performance and organizational performance in organizational system, quantitatively analyzes vary degrees of which main crucial factors of organizational system affect leaders’performance, depends on changes of organizational cost and GP with keeping the stable state of action performance and regarding optimum leaders’performance as the developing goal, adopts the marginal analysis method and the optimal control technology.
Third, GLP is the representative reflection of GP in this paper. We can not totally regard GP as GLP because leader is the main body in organizational system, and not treat all as equals by equalitarianism. GLP is divided from GP based on the method of effevtiveness difference. Its results actually present relative contribution effectiveness of GLP, lay a solid foundation for further implementation on evaluation of GLP.
Forth, in former researches progress effectiveness was mostly measured by the ratio of total yearly increments, this paper regards a continuous time region as evaluation bases, makes effective efforts as the core in view of overall situation, really evaluates relative progress effectiveness by dynamic changes of leaders’achievements depending on Three-time Relative Evaluations (TRE), which can be calculated by comparing the foundation index with the present index in analogy set by the method of Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA).
Fifth, this paper regards sustained growth of social system as the goal, makes utilizable costs and obtainable benefits as the core, takes omnibearing and multi- gradation as features, uses working function and leaders’achievements as the bases, measures scientific development index by the method of“Cost Benefit”, furher evaluates qualification and competence and excellence of government leader.
Finally, this paper analyses“Optimization Mechanism”of leader costs and“Feedback Effect”of leader benefits, practically researches on local GLP in a new stage. From evaluation results much deep information can be tapped through the function and usefulness of from outside to inside and from one to the other. Week and strong of GLP can reflect initiative and mission of leader; dominance and recessiveness of GLP can show potentiality and stamina of leader; pedestrian and unusualness of GLP can present ability and innovation of leader. It will realize the optimization of GLP to improve and perfect leader efficiency and reduce leader costs.
In the future, we should aim at technical frontier of leader performance evaluation around the world, fully utilize and use much of the knowledge, which relates to evaluation of GLP, to form a new pattern composed of multi-subject and multi-method, continuously improve and perfect former evaluation way, constantly promote leadership evaluation cause to be mature guiding by scientific development theory.
20世纪70年代以来,英国、美国等发达国家兴起了一场旨在提高政府绩效的“新政府运动”,其主要特点是以“政府绩效评估”作为核心管理工具,可以说,传统的“行政领导”正在向“绩效领导”转变。如何实现经济增长中“领导人才”这一稀有资源的开发,已经引起各国政府的高度重视和专门研究。
本文在总结以往研究成果和实践经验的基础上,构筑出一种可量化的、更具操作性的政府领导绩效评价的理论方法体系,构建政府领导绩效评价模型,采用定性模拟、边际分析、最优控制分析和数据包络分析等研究方法,通过“科学发展指数”——内含“相对贡献度”、“相对进步效度”、“综合效率指数”和“综合潜力指数”来衡量领导绩效的实力状况,以此刻画领导绩效的总体发展水平和综合进步情况。本文重在研究政府领导绩效的评价框架设计与评价模型构建,而且在评价方法上侧重于运用技术手段。
本文针对政府领导绩效评价进行定性模拟分析,构建了政府领导绩效评价的结构模型,主要由成本子模块、产出子模块、评价子模块、社会子模块和行为子模块组成,并应用定性模拟方法对其运行过程进行定性推理。本文认为在政府组织系统中,领导绩效的总体水平必然体现在投入成本和政府绩效的动态变化之中,结合动态经济学的最优控制理论,应用边际分析和最优控制方法,定量分析所投入的主观努力、边际成本以及政府绩效的边际产出对于领导绩效的影响度。
本文认为领导绩效是政府绩效的代表性反映,将领导绩效从政府绩效中分离出来,真实地刻画出领导主体的相对贡献度,为进一步实施领导绩效评价奠定坚实的基础。本文通过工作实绩的动态变化,以全局为视角,以前后时期为基准,以有效努力程度为核心,应用“三次相对评价”方法,通过前期指标和现期指标在类比群体中的差异对照测算行为绩效的相对进步效度。
本文以社会系统的持续发展为目标,以领导主体的工作职能和工作实绩为依据,应用“成本-效益”方法测算科学发展指数,由此评价领导主体的合格程度、胜任程度和优秀程度。本文结合新时期黑龙江省地方政府的领导绩效情况进行实证研究,分析领导成本的“优化机制”和领导效益的“后馈效应”,从评价结果中了解更深层次的信息,发挥由表及里、由此及彼和融会贯通的功能和效用,提高地方政府领导的工作效率,降低领导成本,从而实现政府领导绩效的优化。
对于政府领导绩效评价的综合研究,我们只有瞄准国内外领导绩效研究的技术前沿,充分借鉴和利用所有与领导绩效有关的知识,形成多学科、多方法综合运用的格局,从更深的层次发掘领导绩效的底蕴,不断改进和突破已有的定量分析方法,使我国的政府领导绩效研究在科学理论的指导下不断成熟。
Following the general trend of globalization and information and intermittence derived from knowledge economy, the key factors of economic competition is decided by knowledge instead of capital assets. Because human acts as the carrier of knowledge, main body of economic competition chiefly shows talent competition. In system of knowledge economy, leader is regarded as more important human resource, recombines factor of production which becomes basic motive force of economic growth, whose quality and efficiency have been the major composition of the core competition in market economic. We have not evaded the crucial question that how to exist and develop in the complex economic structure and how to compete with foreign opponents in the same international arena.
From the 1970s, the developed countries, such as England and the U.S.A., have proposed“New Government Movement”to promote government performance (GP), regarding“Government Performance Evaluation”as the key means, that is, great changes from“Administrative Leader”to“Performance Leader”have been taking place. Governments surrounding the world have paid more attention to technical study on how to exploit the rare human resource,“leader”, in the process of economic development.
This paper forms a general theoretical structure of evaluation of government leaders’performance (GLP) which is easy to quantitative analysis and practical measurement, sets up the evaluation model of GLP, adopts evaluation methods of qualitative reasoning and marginal analysis and optimal control and data envelopment analysis, measures comprehensive strength of GLP by scientific development index composed of relative contribution effectiveness and relative progress effectiveness and comprehensive efficiency index and comprehensive potentiality index, reflects overall development and comprehensive progress of GLP. This paper emphasizes on designing evaluation structure and constructing evaluation model of GLP, and also on putting to use technical means on evaluation way.
First, this paper sets up the evaluation structure model of GLP which consists of five subsections, such as cost subsection and outcome subsection and evaluation subsection and society subsection and action subsection. Five subsections depend on each other and interact mutually, in which evaluation subsection connects each subsection. Then the operation process of evaluation of GLP is qualitatively simulated by the method of qualitative reasoning.
Second, this paper points out that GLP is decided by action performance and cost performance and organizational performance in organizational system, quantitatively analyzes vary degrees of which main crucial factors of organizational system affect leaders’performance, depends on changes of organizational cost and GP with keeping the stable state of action performance and regarding optimum leaders’performance as the developing goal, adopts the marginal analysis method and the optimal control technology.
Third, GLP is the representative reflection of GP in this paper. We can not totally regard GP as GLP because leader is the main body in organizational system, and not treat all as equals by equalitarianism. GLP is divided from GP based on the method of effevtiveness difference. Its results actually present relative contribution effectiveness of GLP, lay a solid foundation for further implementation on evaluation of GLP.
Forth, in former researches progress effectiveness was mostly measured by the ratio of total yearly increments, this paper regards a continuous time region as evaluation bases, makes effective efforts as the core in view of overall situation, really evaluates relative progress effectiveness by dynamic changes of leaders’achievements depending on Three-time Relative Evaluations (TRE), which can be calculated by comparing the foundation index with the present index in analogy set by the method of Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA).
Fifth, this paper regards sustained growth of social system as the goal, makes utilizable costs and obtainable benefits as the core, takes omnibearing and multi- gradation as features, uses working function and leaders’achievements as the bases, measures scientific development index by the method of“Cost Benefit”, furher evaluates qualification and competence and excellence of government leader.
Finally, this paper analyses“Optimization Mechanism”of leader costs and“Feedback Effect”of leader benefits, practically researches on local GLP in a new stage. From evaluation results much deep information can be tapped through the function and usefulness of from outside to inside and from one to the other. Week and strong of GLP can reflect initiative and mission of leader; dominance and recessiveness of GLP can show potentiality and stamina of leader; pedestrian and unusualness of GLP can present ability and innovation of leader. It will realize the optimization of GLP to improve and perfect leader efficiency and reduce leader costs.
In the future, we should aim at technical frontier of leader performance evaluation around the world, fully utilize and use much of the knowledge, which relates to evaluation of GLP, to form a new pattern composed of multi-subject and multi-method, continuously improve and perfect former evaluation way, constantly promote leadership evaluation cause to be mature guiding by scientific development theory.
引文
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