乡镇企业财务风险的机制与控制研究
|
摘要
当前，从企业风险管理的角度，研究较大规模乡镇企业财务风险的防范与控制问题，
对于推进现代企业制度的建立和完善，保障企业的生存与发展，进而促进我国农村经济乃
至国民经济的持续发展，具有明显现实意义和学术价值。本文在总结国内外有关企业财务
风险理论和方法研究文献的基础上，结合乡镇企业实际情况，借鉴系统理论和控制理论的
思想，运用系统分析和决策分析的方法，提出了研究乡镇企业财务风险机制与控制问题的
系统分析思维框架，包括企业财务风险生成/传导机制分析框架、防范/控制机制分析框架、
风险状态判断与原因诊断分析框架、以及风险防范/控制策略体系构成分析框架。
基于企业财务风险缘于外部经营环境和内部管理决策客观存在的不确定性的认识，针
对当前对较大规模乡镇企业持续发展影响较大的经济政策因素、市场环境因素、技术因素
以及企业内部理财决策因素，论文运用模型分析及因果分析方法，剖析了各类关键影响因
素引致乡镇企业财务风险的机理和效应，并根据系统分解与综合的分析方法，讨论了乡镇
企业财务风险生成/传导的综合效应机制。
围绕企业财务风险防范/控制机制的核心问题：动力机制和运行机制，论文深入分析
了乡镇企业相关利益主体防范/控制风险的动机和行为，总结了乡镇企业防范/控制风险的
动力机制，并将其与国有企业和上市公司进行了比较分析；然后从风险防范/控制系统运
行的分析模型、基本程序和基本方式等方面，讨论了乡镇企业财务风险防范/控制系统的
运行机制。研究认为，大部分乡镇企业财务风险的防范/控制机制存在较大的缺陷。
考虑到企业财务风险状态及原因的判断和诊断是防范/控制风险的前提和条件，论文
以企业经营绩效评价为方法和手段，根据提出的评价结果与风险状态判定准则，对我国上
市乡镇企业财务风险状态及原因进行了系统分析。结果表明，绝大多数上市乡镇企业存在
程度不同的发生财务风险的可能性，其原因主要在于企业较低的主营业务利润率、高额的
应收帐款、较低的短期偿债能力以及净利润的非持续增长。
论文把财务风险防范/控制策略作为企业财务风险研究的落脚点。在对乡镇企业财务
风险防范/控制的手段目标、直接目标、间接目标和最终目标分析的基础上，结合风险防
范/控制的基本方法，从风险状态转移、风险机制改善和企业特性优化等三个层次出发，
提出了乡镇企业财务风险防范/控制策略体系形成的基本途径，并结合案例企业，重点从
企业特性评价和优化的角度，分析了案例企业财务风险防范/控制策略的构建要点。
本文所做的工作，只是乡镇企业财务风险研究这一复杂系统问题的初步成果，因此仍
有许多问题有待继续深入研究解决。
Research on financial risk prevention and control in Chinese township enterprises (CTEs) of
larger scale, from the angle of risk management, has an evidently practical and academic
significance to propelling the foundation and consummation of Modem Enterprise System,
ensuring the survival and development of CTEs, and then promoting the sustainable development
of rural and national economy at present. On the basis of summarizing the literature of financial
risk theory and methods in China as well as in other countries, according to the practical situation
of CTEs, with the reference on system and control theory, and with the method of systematic
analysis and decision analysis, an analyzing framework to study financial risk mechanism and
control in CTEs was put forward in this paper. The framework includes the following aspects:
financial risk formation/conduct mechanism analysis, risk prevention/control mechanism analysis,
risk level estimation and cause diagnosis, and risk prevention/control tactic system analysis.
Based on the recognition of financial risk originating from the objectively existing
uncertainty of operating environment and managing decisions, in the light of the factors of
economic policy, market, technology, and financing decisions which are more relative with the
sustainable development of CTEs, with the method of model analysis and cause-result analysis,
the mechanism and effect of critical factors resulting in financial risk was analyzed in the paper.
Then the synthetical effect mechanism of financial risk formation/conduct in CTEs was discussed
with the method of system analyzing and synthesizing.
With the core issue of financial risk prevention/control mechanism, the motives and
behaviors of risk prevention/control of the subjects of the CTEs were analyzed intensively in this
paper, and the drive mechanism was summarized and compared with the state-owned and listed
company. Then the operation mechanism of risk prevention/control was discussed from the
aspects of analyzing model, basic procedure and pattern. The conclusion is that the risk
prevention/control mechanism is defective in most CTEs.
By reason that financial risk level estimation and cause diagnosis are the precondition of
risk prevention and control, by means of business performance assessment method, according to
the judgement rules, the financial risk level and causes of the listed CTEs were analyzed
systematically. The result is that absolutely most listed CTEs are in risk situation and the causes
are the lower return of main business, higher receivables, lower capability of short-term debt
redemption, and unsustainable increase of net profit.
The research on the tactic of risk prevention and control is the aim of financial risk analysis.
Based on the analysis of object system and basic method of risk prevention and control, from the
angle of risk level changing, risk mechanism improving, and business characteristic optimizing,
the basic approach to forming the tactic system of risk prevention/control was put forward. And
the formation of tactic was analyzed emphatically from the point of business characteristic
assessment and optimization with the case study.
对于推进现代企业制度的建立和完善，保障企业的生存与发展，进而促进我国农村经济乃
至国民经济的持续发展，具有明显现实意义和学术价值。本文在总结国内外有关企业财务
风险理论和方法研究文献的基础上，结合乡镇企业实际情况，借鉴系统理论和控制理论的
思想，运用系统分析和决策分析的方法，提出了研究乡镇企业财务风险机制与控制问题的
系统分析思维框架，包括企业财务风险生成/传导机制分析框架、防范/控制机制分析框架、
风险状态判断与原因诊断分析框架、以及风险防范/控制策略体系构成分析框架。
基于企业财务风险缘于外部经营环境和内部管理决策客观存在的不确定性的认识，针
对当前对较大规模乡镇企业持续发展影响较大的经济政策因素、市场环境因素、技术因素
以及企业内部理财决策因素，论文运用模型分析及因果分析方法，剖析了各类关键影响因
素引致乡镇企业财务风险的机理和效应，并根据系统分解与综合的分析方法，讨论了乡镇
企业财务风险生成/传导的综合效应机制。
围绕企业财务风险防范/控制机制的核心问题：动力机制和运行机制，论文深入分析
了乡镇企业相关利益主体防范/控制风险的动机和行为，总结了乡镇企业防范/控制风险的
动力机制，并将其与国有企业和上市公司进行了比较分析；然后从风险防范/控制系统运
行的分析模型、基本程序和基本方式等方面，讨论了乡镇企业财务风险防范/控制系统的
运行机制。研究认为，大部分乡镇企业财务风险的防范/控制机制存在较大的缺陷。
考虑到企业财务风险状态及原因的判断和诊断是防范/控制风险的前提和条件，论文
以企业经营绩效评价为方法和手段，根据提出的评价结果与风险状态判定准则，对我国上
市乡镇企业财务风险状态及原因进行了系统分析。结果表明，绝大多数上市乡镇企业存在
程度不同的发生财务风险的可能性，其原因主要在于企业较低的主营业务利润率、高额的
应收帐款、较低的短期偿债能力以及净利润的非持续增长。
论文把财务风险防范/控制策略作为企业财务风险研究的落脚点。在对乡镇企业财务
风险防范/控制的手段目标、直接目标、间接目标和最终目标分析的基础上，结合风险防
范/控制的基本方法，从风险状态转移、风险机制改善和企业特性优化等三个层次出发，
提出了乡镇企业财务风险防范/控制策略体系形成的基本途径，并结合案例企业，重点从
企业特性评价和优化的角度，分析了案例企业财务风险防范/控制策略的构建要点。
本文所做的工作，只是乡镇企业财务风险研究这一复杂系统问题的初步成果，因此仍
有许多问题有待继续深入研究解决。
Research on financial risk prevention and control in Chinese township enterprises (CTEs) of
larger scale, from the angle of risk management, has an evidently practical and academic
significance to propelling the foundation and consummation of Modem Enterprise System,
ensuring the survival and development of CTEs, and then promoting the sustainable development
of rural and national economy at present. On the basis of summarizing the literature of financial
risk theory and methods in China as well as in other countries, according to the practical situation
of CTEs, with the reference on system and control theory, and with the method of systematic
analysis and decision analysis, an analyzing framework to study financial risk mechanism and
control in CTEs was put forward in this paper. The framework includes the following aspects:
financial risk formation/conduct mechanism analysis, risk prevention/control mechanism analysis,
risk level estimation and cause diagnosis, and risk prevention/control tactic system analysis.
Based on the recognition of financial risk originating from the objectively existing
uncertainty of operating environment and managing decisions, in the light of the factors of
economic policy, market, technology, and financing decisions which are more relative with the
sustainable development of CTEs, with the method of model analysis and cause-result analysis,
the mechanism and effect of critical factors resulting in financial risk was analyzed in the paper.
Then the synthetical effect mechanism of financial risk formation/conduct in CTEs was discussed
with the method of system analyzing and synthesizing.
With the core issue of financial risk prevention/control mechanism, the motives and
behaviors of risk prevention/control of the subjects of the CTEs were analyzed intensively in this
paper, and the drive mechanism was summarized and compared with the state-owned and listed
company. Then the operation mechanism of risk prevention/control was discussed from the
aspects of analyzing model, basic procedure and pattern. The conclusion is that the risk
prevention/control mechanism is defective in most CTEs.
By reason that financial risk level estimation and cause diagnosis are the precondition of
risk prevention and control, by means of business performance assessment method, according to
the judgement rules, the financial risk level and causes of the listed CTEs were analyzed
systematically. The result is that absolutely most listed CTEs are in risk situation and the causes
are the lower return of main business, higher receivables, lower capability of short-term debt
redemption, and unsustainable increase of net profit.
The research on the tactic of risk prevention and control is the aim of financial risk analysis.
Based on the analysis of object system and basic method of risk prevention and control, from the
angle of risk level changing, risk mechanism improving, and business characteristic optimizing,
the basic approach to forming the tactic system of risk prevention/control was put forward. And
the formation of tactic was analyzed emphatically from the point of business characteristic
assessment and optimization with the case study.
引文
1 卞耀武，万宝瑞．中华人民共和国乡镇企业法释义．北京：中国商业出版社，1997：29-34
2 宗锦耀．乡镇企业发展大局观．引自：敢问路在何方——首期中国乡镇企业科技创新高级研讨班资料汇编，国家科技部农村与社会发展司，1999：20-53
3 农业部乡镇企业局．全国乡镇企业基本情况及经济运行分析(内部资料)，1996-1999
4 Megill R E. Risk Analysis.Tulsa:Petroleum Publishing Company,1977:202-212
5 Willett A H.The Economic Theory of Risk and Insurance.Philadelphia:The University of Pennsylvania Press,1951
6 Mehr R I,Hedges B A.Risk Management:Concepts and applications.Homewood:Richard D.Irwin Inc.,1974:Chap.1
7 Knight F H.Risk,Uncertainty and Profit.New York:A.M.Kelly,1964
8 Williams C A, Heins R M.Risk Management and Insurance,6~(th) ed.New York:McGraw-Hill Publishing Co.,1989:25-36
9 宋明哲．风险管理．台北：五南图书出版公司，1984
10 郭仲伟．风险分析与决策．北京：机械工业出版社，1987：1-5
11 于川．风险经济学导论．北京：中国铁道出版社，1994：2-16
12 王巍．国家风险——开放时代的不测风云．沈阳：辽宁人民出版社，1987：27-32
13 田德录，卢凤君．风险管理要素分析．中国农业大学学报，1998，3(6)：6-10
14 余绪缨．企业理财学．沈阳：辽宁人民出版社，1996：144-181
15 Horne J C V,et al.Fundamental of Financial Management, 6(th) ed. Prentice-Hall Canada Inc,1989
16 Brigham E F,Gapenski L C.Intermediate Financial Management,2~(nd) ed.The Dryden Press,1987
17 刘恩禄，汤谷良．论财务风险管理．北京商学院学报，1989(5)
18 侯红兵．树立财务风险观念，健全财务风险管理．财经论坛，1995(5)：60-62
19 马晓谨．企业财务风险分析与决策：[学位论文]．北京：中国农业大学，1998：1-10
20 尹平，陆宇健．股份制企业财务风险与防范．北京：中国财政经济出版社，1998：8-12
21 向德伟．论财务风险．会计研究，1994(4)：22-25
22 向德伟．论企业经营风险．内蒙古财经学院学报，1995(4)：37-39
23 Fayol Henri.General and Industrial Management. New York: Pitman Publishing Corporation,1949
24 Mowbray A H,Blanchard R H.Insurance.New York: McGraw-Hill Book Co.,1950
25 于九如．投资项目风险分析．北京：机械工业出版社，1999：5-10
26 王诚．竞争策略与风险管理．北京：商务印书馆，1997：22-44
27 Markwitz H M.Portfolio Section:efficient Diversification of Investment.New York:John Wiley,1959
28 Sharpe W F.Capital Asset Prices:A Theory of Market Equilibrium under Conditions of Risk.Journal of Finance,Sept.1964
29 Miller M H,Modigliani F.The Cost of Capital,Corporation Finance and the Theory of Investment.American Economic Review,June 1958
30 Pate-Cornell M Elisabeth. Global risk management.Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, v12 n2-3 1996:239-255
31 Ross S A.The Arbitrage Theory of Capital Assets Pricing.Journal of Economic Theory,Dec.1976:343-362
32 Thomas E Copeland,et al.Financial Theory and Corporate Policy,2~(nd) Ed.New York:Addison Wesley Publishing Co.Inc..1983:211-222
33 Baron Jonathen.Confusion of relative and absolute risk in valuation.Journal of Risk and Uncertainty,v13 n3 1997:301-309
34 Watson John.Do small business have high failure rates?.Journal of Small Business Management,v34 n4 1996:45-62
35 F.Zimbelman Mark.The effects of SAS No.82 on auditors attention to fraud risk factors and audit planning decisions.Journal of Accounting Research,v35 Supplement 1997:75-104
36 Schwab Bernhard, et al. Better risk management:a key to improve performance.Journal of General Management, v22 n4 1997:65-75
37 R.Lelornu Mark,et al.The small enterprise financial objective function. Journal of Small Business Management, v34 n3 1996:1-14
38 Christina G.S. Palmer, et al. Risk perception:an empirical study of the relationship between worldview and the risk construct.Risk Analysis,v16 n5 1996:717-723
39 Pate-Cornell M Elisabeth, et al. Human and management factors in probabilistic risk analysis: the SAM approach. Reliability Engineering and Safety System,v53 n2 1996:115-126
40 Robert N Bontempo,et al.Cross-cultural differences in risk perception: A model-based approach.Risk Analysis,v17 n4 1997:479-488
41 Paul Menghini,et al.Business analysis-a hotbed for strategy ideas.Proceedings of 1997 Society of Petroleum Engineering Annual Technical Conference and Exhibition,299-310
42 T Prisson,et al.Federal fiscal constitutions:risk sharing and moral hazard.Economy,v64 n3 1996:623-646
43 L Eeckhoudt, et al. Changes in background risk and risk taking behavior.Economy,v64 n3 1996:683-689
44 D Cass,et al.Individual risk and mutual insurance.Economy,v64 n2 1996:333-341
45 K Porn.Decision-oriented measure of uncertainty importance for use in PSA.Reliability Engineering and System Safety,v36 n1 1997:17-27
46 L Goossens,et al.Applications of some risk assessment techniques:formal expert judgement and accident sequence precursors.Safety Science,v26 n1-1 1997:35-47
47 Robert Schumacher,et al.Next generation risk management.Processing Safety Program,v16 n2 1997:69-71
48 Art Gemmer.Risk management:moving beyond process.Computer,v30 n5 1997:33-43
49 D A Sarigianis, et al. New concept for risk-base technology development and regulations:areas of its applicability.Risk and Safety Assessment:Where is the Balance?Proceedings of 1995 ASME/JSME pressure vessels and piping conference,375-382
50 S Scholes Myron.Global financial markets,derivative securities,and systemic risks.Journal of Risk and Uncertainty,v12 n2-3 1996:271-286
51 L P Geoge.The government, the market and the problem of catastrophic loss. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty,v12 n2-3 1996:219-237
52 J Arrow Kenneth.The theory of risk-bearing:small and great risks.Journal of Risk and Uncertainty,v12 n2-3 1996:103-111
53 Robert L.K. Ting,et al.Financial commitments for BOT projects.Journal of Project Management,v15 n2 1997:73-78
54 陈仕亮主编．风险管理．成都：西南财经大学出版社，1994：13-39
55 骆民．金融风险的基本特征及其防范．当代经济科学，1997，7(4)：91-92
56 尹平，陆宇健．股份制企业财务风险与防范．北京：中国财政经济出版社，1998：13-16
57 Williams C A,Smith M L,Young P C.Risk Management and Insurance,7~(th) ed. New York:McGraw-Hill Inc.,1995:18-96
58 陈士亮主编．风险管理．成都：西南财经大学出版社，1994：65-281
59 许谨良．保险学原理．上海：上海财经大学出版社，1997：295-322
60 R.E.麦格尔．风险分析概论．孙济元等译．北京：石油工业出版社，1985：15-22
61 E.G.亨利．可靠性工程与风险分析．吕应中等译．北京：原子能出版社，1985：14-56
62 郭仲伟．风险分析与决策．北京：机械工业出版社，1987：24-59
63 Robinson R.Brace,et al.Statistical quantification of the sources of variance in uncertainty analyzes.Risk Analysis,v17 n4 1997:447-453
64 J H William, et al. On the assessment of economic risk: factorial design versus Monte Carlo method. Reliability Engineering and System Safety,v36 n1 1997:91-102
65 Luigi Vacca.Managing options risk with genetic algorithms.Proceedings of 1997 IEEE/IAFE conference on computation intelligence for financial engineering,29-32
66 Teresa Rubinson,et al.Fuzzy logic and genetic algorithms for financial risk management.Proceedings of IEEE/IAFE 1996 Conference on Computational Intelligence for Financial Engineering,90-95
67 Jianmin Jia, et al. Standard measure of risk and risk-value models.Management Science,v42 n12 1996:1691-1705
68 Giampiero E G Beroggi,et al.Model formulation support in risk management.Safety Science,v24 n2 1996:121-142
69 Louis F Restrepo. Combining qualitative and quantitative risk assessment results into a common risk measure. Risk and Safety Assessment: Where is the Balance?,Proceedings of 1995 ASME/JSME pressure vessels and piping conference,3-14
70 Alan Webb.Software for risk analysis in business projects.Journal of Engineering Management,v6 n6 1996:283-289
71 H.G. Green. Robust estimation analytic for financial risk management.Proceedings of IEEE/IAFE 1996 Conference on Computational Intelligence for Financial Engineering,190-198
72 谭庆琏等．投资业务风险管理全书．北京：中国金融出版社，1994：17-48
73 王诚．竞争策略与风险管理．北京：商务印书馆，1997：214-253
74 尹平，陆宇健．股份制企业财务风险与防范．北京：中国财政经济出版社，1998：46-110
75 宋贵芳．投资风险分析方法．数量经济技术研究，1987(7)：31-39
76 俞察．长期投资决策中风险的衡量与计算．基建优化，1990(6)：32-37
77 全国会计专业技术资格考试领导小组办公室编．财务管理．北京：中国财政经济出版社，1998：416-457
78 谢科苑．论投资风险的计量方法．基建优化，1991(1)：28-33
79 吴晓东．投资风险分析的理论与方法及其应用研究．天津：天津大学[学位论文]，1989
80 Carter R L and Doherty N A. Handbook of Risk Management.London:Kluwer-Harrop Handbooks,1974
81 董锋．关于外贸企业财务风险的防范与对策．中央财政金融学院学报，1996(12)：12-15
82 龚兴隆．企业风险管理策略．兰州商学院学报，1999(4)：83-86
83 向德伟．财务风险管理的基本理论与方法．财政研究，1995(5)：43-48
84 韦孟文．试论企业财务风险．广西大学学报(哲学社会科学版)，1996(6)：45-47
85 李茂荣．乡镇企业发展存在的问题与对策．经济论坛，1999(7)：37-38
86 郑红亮．中国乡镇企业发展面临新的挑战和选择，浙江学刊，1999(6)：72-76
87 王林．乡镇企业持续发展面临的问题与对策．农村经济，1999(11)：33-35
88 李茂荣．乡镇企业发展存在的问题与对策．经济论坛，1999(7)：37-38
89 师桂芳．乡镇企业发展若干问题分析及其对策研究．农业部北京农垦管理干部学院学报，1999(4)：27-31
90 刘志杨．乡镇企业问题与发展思路．农业经济，1999(4)：34-35
91 郭克松，刘法金．论乡镇企业的发展趋势、面临的挑战及应对方略．河南社会科学，1999(2)：36-38
92 孙耀斌，王永德．乡镇企业存在的问题和发展对策．乡镇经济，1999(6)：20-21
93 张敦胜．我国乡镇企业再创辉煌的根本途径．山东财政学院学报，1999(3)：15-18
94 温铁军，徐雪．乡镇企业运行情况与问题分析．中国农村信用合作，1999(33)：4-5
95 Fan Y, et al. Chinese peasant entrepreneurs: an examination of township and village enterprises (TVEs) in rural China.Journal of Small Business Management,v34 n4 1996:72-76
96 姜国详．我国乡镇企业发展中的问题及对策．浙江社会科学，1998(9)：37-38
97 宗锦耀．乡镇企业发展大局观．引自：敢问路在何方——首届中国乡镇企业科技创新高级研讨班资料汇编．国家科技部农村与社会发展司，1999：20-53
98 盛荣永．乡镇企业财务风险的成因和对策．乡镇企业研究，1997(4)：7-8
99 卢凤君，田德录等．乡镇企业财务管理体系构成要素引致风险的机理和辨识方法．农业技术经济．2000(1)：9-13
100 卢凤君等．地域系统规划设计的理论及应用．北京：北京理工大学出版社，1991：16-71
101 乔迪．兰德决策——机遇预测和商业决策．成都：天地出版社，1998：10-76
2 宗锦耀．乡镇企业发展大局观．引自：敢问路在何方——首期中国乡镇企业科技创新高级研讨班资料汇编，国家科技部农村与社会发展司，1999：20-53
3 农业部乡镇企业局．全国乡镇企业基本情况及经济运行分析(内部资料)，1996-1999
4 Megill R E. Risk Analysis.Tulsa:Petroleum Publishing Company,1977:202-212
5 Willett A H.The Economic Theory of Risk and Insurance.Philadelphia:The University of Pennsylvania Press,1951
6 Mehr R I,Hedges B A.Risk Management:Concepts and applications.Homewood:Richard D.Irwin Inc.,1974:Chap.1
7 Knight F H.Risk,Uncertainty and Profit.New York:A.M.Kelly,1964
8 Williams C A, Heins R M.Risk Management and Insurance,6~(th) ed.New York:McGraw-Hill Publishing Co.,1989:25-36
9 宋明哲．风险管理．台北：五南图书出版公司，1984
10 郭仲伟．风险分析与决策．北京：机械工业出版社，1987：1-5
11 于川．风险经济学导论．北京：中国铁道出版社，1994：2-16
12 王巍．国家风险——开放时代的不测风云．沈阳：辽宁人民出版社，1987：27-32
13 田德录，卢凤君．风险管理要素分析．中国农业大学学报，1998，3(6)：6-10
14 余绪缨．企业理财学．沈阳：辽宁人民出版社，1996：144-181
15 Horne J C V,et al.Fundamental of Financial Management, 6(th) ed. Prentice-Hall Canada Inc,1989
16 Brigham E F,Gapenski L C.Intermediate Financial Management,2~(nd) ed.The Dryden Press,1987
17 刘恩禄，汤谷良．论财务风险管理．北京商学院学报，1989(5)
18 侯红兵．树立财务风险观念，健全财务风险管理．财经论坛，1995(5)：60-62
19 马晓谨．企业财务风险分析与决策：[学位论文]．北京：中国农业大学，1998：1-10
20 尹平，陆宇健．股份制企业财务风险与防范．北京：中国财政经济出版社，1998：8-12
21 向德伟．论财务风险．会计研究，1994(4)：22-25
22 向德伟．论企业经营风险．内蒙古财经学院学报，1995(4)：37-39
23 Fayol Henri.General and Industrial Management. New York: Pitman Publishing Corporation,1949
24 Mowbray A H,Blanchard R H.Insurance.New York: McGraw-Hill Book Co.,1950
25 于九如．投资项目风险分析．北京：机械工业出版社，1999：5-10
26 王诚．竞争策略与风险管理．北京：商务印书馆，1997：22-44
27 Markwitz H M.Portfolio Section:efficient Diversification of Investment.New York:John Wiley,1959
28 Sharpe W F.Capital Asset Prices:A Theory of Market Equilibrium under Conditions of Risk.Journal of Finance,Sept.1964
29 Miller M H,Modigliani F.The Cost of Capital,Corporation Finance and the Theory of Investment.American Economic Review,June 1958
30 Pate-Cornell M Elisabeth. Global risk management.Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, v12 n2-3 1996:239-255
31 Ross S A.The Arbitrage Theory of Capital Assets Pricing.Journal of Economic Theory,Dec.1976:343-362
32 Thomas E Copeland,et al.Financial Theory and Corporate Policy,2~(nd) Ed.New York:Addison Wesley Publishing Co.Inc..1983:211-222
33 Baron Jonathen.Confusion of relative and absolute risk in valuation.Journal of Risk and Uncertainty,v13 n3 1997:301-309
34 Watson John.Do small business have high failure rates?.Journal of Small Business Management,v34 n4 1996:45-62
35 F.Zimbelman Mark.The effects of SAS No.82 on auditors attention to fraud risk factors and audit planning decisions.Journal of Accounting Research,v35 Supplement 1997:75-104
36 Schwab Bernhard, et al. Better risk management:a key to improve performance.Journal of General Management, v22 n4 1997:65-75
37 R.Lelornu Mark,et al.The small enterprise financial objective function. Journal of Small Business Management, v34 n3 1996:1-14
38 Christina G.S. Palmer, et al. Risk perception:an empirical study of the relationship between worldview and the risk construct.Risk Analysis,v16 n5 1996:717-723
39 Pate-Cornell M Elisabeth, et al. Human and management factors in probabilistic risk analysis: the SAM approach. Reliability Engineering and Safety System,v53 n2 1996:115-126
40 Robert N Bontempo,et al.Cross-cultural differences in risk perception: A model-based approach.Risk Analysis,v17 n4 1997:479-488
41 Paul Menghini,et al.Business analysis-a hotbed for strategy ideas.Proceedings of 1997 Society of Petroleum Engineering Annual Technical Conference and Exhibition,299-310
42 T Prisson,et al.Federal fiscal constitutions:risk sharing and moral hazard.Economy,v64 n3 1996:623-646
43 L Eeckhoudt, et al. Changes in background risk and risk taking behavior.Economy,v64 n3 1996:683-689
44 D Cass,et al.Individual risk and mutual insurance.Economy,v64 n2 1996:333-341
45 K Porn.Decision-oriented measure of uncertainty importance for use in PSA.Reliability Engineering and System Safety,v36 n1 1997:17-27
46 L Goossens,et al.Applications of some risk assessment techniques:formal expert judgement and accident sequence precursors.Safety Science,v26 n1-1 1997:35-47
47 Robert Schumacher,et al.Next generation risk management.Processing Safety Program,v16 n2 1997:69-71
48 Art Gemmer.Risk management:moving beyond process.Computer,v30 n5 1997:33-43
49 D A Sarigianis, et al. New concept for risk-base technology development and regulations:areas of its applicability.Risk and Safety Assessment:Where is the Balance?Proceedings of 1995 ASME/JSME pressure vessels and piping conference,375-382
50 S Scholes Myron.Global financial markets,derivative securities,and systemic risks.Journal of Risk and Uncertainty,v12 n2-3 1996:271-286
51 L P Geoge.The government, the market and the problem of catastrophic loss. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty,v12 n2-3 1996:219-237
52 J Arrow Kenneth.The theory of risk-bearing:small and great risks.Journal of Risk and Uncertainty,v12 n2-3 1996:103-111
53 Robert L.K. Ting,et al.Financial commitments for BOT projects.Journal of Project Management,v15 n2 1997:73-78
54 陈仕亮主编．风险管理．成都：西南财经大学出版社，1994：13-39
55 骆民．金融风险的基本特征及其防范．当代经济科学，1997，7(4)：91-92
56 尹平，陆宇健．股份制企业财务风险与防范．北京：中国财政经济出版社，1998：13-16
57 Williams C A,Smith M L,Young P C.Risk Management and Insurance,7~(th) ed. New York:McGraw-Hill Inc.,1995:18-96
58 陈士亮主编．风险管理．成都：西南财经大学出版社，1994：65-281
59 许谨良．保险学原理．上海：上海财经大学出版社，1997：295-322
60 R.E.麦格尔．风险分析概论．孙济元等译．北京：石油工业出版社，1985：15-22
61 E.G.亨利．可靠性工程与风险分析．吕应中等译．北京：原子能出版社，1985：14-56
62 郭仲伟．风险分析与决策．北京：机械工业出版社，1987：24-59
63 Robinson R.Brace,et al.Statistical quantification of the sources of variance in uncertainty analyzes.Risk Analysis,v17 n4 1997:447-453
64 J H William, et al. On the assessment of economic risk: factorial design versus Monte Carlo method. Reliability Engineering and System Safety,v36 n1 1997:91-102
65 Luigi Vacca.Managing options risk with genetic algorithms.Proceedings of 1997 IEEE/IAFE conference on computation intelligence for financial engineering,29-32
66 Teresa Rubinson,et al.Fuzzy logic and genetic algorithms for financial risk management.Proceedings of IEEE/IAFE 1996 Conference on Computational Intelligence for Financial Engineering,90-95
67 Jianmin Jia, et al. Standard measure of risk and risk-value models.Management Science,v42 n12 1996:1691-1705
68 Giampiero E G Beroggi,et al.Model formulation support in risk management.Safety Science,v24 n2 1996:121-142
69 Louis F Restrepo. Combining qualitative and quantitative risk assessment results into a common risk measure. Risk and Safety Assessment: Where is the Balance?,Proceedings of 1995 ASME/JSME pressure vessels and piping conference,3-14
70 Alan Webb.Software for risk analysis in business projects.Journal of Engineering Management,v6 n6 1996:283-289
71 H.G. Green. Robust estimation analytic for financial risk management.Proceedings of IEEE/IAFE 1996 Conference on Computational Intelligence for Financial Engineering,190-198
72 谭庆琏等．投资业务风险管理全书．北京：中国金融出版社，1994：17-48
73 王诚．竞争策略与风险管理．北京：商务印书馆，1997：214-253
74 尹平，陆宇健．股份制企业财务风险与防范．北京：中国财政经济出版社，1998：46-110
75 宋贵芳．投资风险分析方法．数量经济技术研究，1987(7)：31-39
76 俞察．长期投资决策中风险的衡量与计算．基建优化，1990(6)：32-37
77 全国会计专业技术资格考试领导小组办公室编．财务管理．北京：中国财政经济出版社，1998：416-457
78 谢科苑．论投资风险的计量方法．基建优化，1991(1)：28-33
79 吴晓东．投资风险分析的理论与方法及其应用研究．天津：天津大学[学位论文]，1989
80 Carter R L and Doherty N A. Handbook of Risk Management.London:Kluwer-Harrop Handbooks,1974
81 董锋．关于外贸企业财务风险的防范与对策．中央财政金融学院学报，1996(12)：12-15
82 龚兴隆．企业风险管理策略．兰州商学院学报，1999(4)：83-86
83 向德伟．财务风险管理的基本理论与方法．财政研究，1995(5)：43-48
84 韦孟文．试论企业财务风险．广西大学学报(哲学社会科学版)，1996(6)：45-47
85 李茂荣．乡镇企业发展存在的问题与对策．经济论坛，1999(7)：37-38
86 郑红亮．中国乡镇企业发展面临新的挑战和选择，浙江学刊，1999(6)：72-76
87 王林．乡镇企业持续发展面临的问题与对策．农村经济，1999(11)：33-35
88 李茂荣．乡镇企业发展存在的问题与对策．经济论坛，1999(7)：37-38
89 师桂芳．乡镇企业发展若干问题分析及其对策研究．农业部北京农垦管理干部学院学报，1999(4)：27-31
90 刘志杨．乡镇企业问题与发展思路．农业经济，1999(4)：34-35
91 郭克松，刘法金．论乡镇企业的发展趋势、面临的挑战及应对方略．河南社会科学，1999(2)：36-38
92 孙耀斌，王永德．乡镇企业存在的问题和发展对策．乡镇经济，1999(6)：20-21
93 张敦胜．我国乡镇企业再创辉煌的根本途径．山东财政学院学报，1999(3)：15-18
94 温铁军，徐雪．乡镇企业运行情况与问题分析．中国农村信用合作，1999(33)：4-5
95 Fan Y, et al. Chinese peasant entrepreneurs: an examination of township and village enterprises (TVEs) in rural China.Journal of Small Business Management,v34 n4 1996:72-76
96 姜国详．我国乡镇企业发展中的问题及对策．浙江社会科学，1998(9)：37-38
97 宗锦耀．乡镇企业发展大局观．引自：敢问路在何方——首届中国乡镇企业科技创新高级研讨班资料汇编．国家科技部农村与社会发展司，1999：20-53
98 盛荣永．乡镇企业财务风险的成因和对策．乡镇企业研究，1997(4)：7-8
99 卢凤君，田德录等．乡镇企业财务管理体系构成要素引致风险的机理和辨识方法．农业技术经济．2000(1)：9-13
100 卢凤君等．地域系统规划设计的理论及应用．北京：北京理工大学出版社，1991：16-71
101 乔迪．兰德决策——机遇预测和商业决策．成都：天地出版社，1998：10-76