多元平衡与“准联盟”理论研究
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摘要
联盟是国际安全合作的重要模式，联盟理论也是国际安全合作研究的重要对象。然而，行为体之间的安全合作除依靠正式的联盟关系得以维系外，常常还依靠另一类特殊的安全管理机制。这些国际实体进行了各种形式的安全合作，却不能够、或不愿意为具体的安全合作签订具有法律效力的军事盟约。按照主流联盟理论的界定标准，这类特殊的安全合作模式不属于联盟，也有别于中立。作者将这类介于正式联盟和中立之间的“灰色”关系界定为“准联盟”。准联盟系指“两个或两个以上国际实体在次级安全合作方针而非军事盟约之上形成的持久性或临时性安全管理模式”。简言之，联盟是“联”而又“盟”，准联盟就是“联”而不“盟”。准联盟关系主要有六个基本特征。一、从参与方的多少来看，准联盟可分为双边和多边准联盟两类；二、从构成来看，准联盟的成员不仅包括主权国家，而且包括其他非主权政治实体；三、从形成的标识来看，准联盟关系的构建首先是不同成员体的决策者在心理上达成了某种程度的默契；四、从合作期限来看，准联盟可分为持久性准联盟与临时性准联盟；五、从表现形式来看，准联盟的载体往往是非正式协定，包括外交公报、联合声明、备忘录、友好合作条约、联合记者招待会、国内立法或联合国某项决议。而不是正式军事盟约；六、从合作内容来看，准联盟关系主要是国际实体之间针对第三方的军事与安全合作关系，而非经济、社会与文化合作关系。
促进准联盟关系构建的变量主要有四个：共同的安全威胁和发展利益、一致的意识形态和文化认同。
在这四个变量中，安全威胁和发展利益是构建准联盟关系的硬基础，意识形态和文化认同是准联盟关系构建的软基础。硬基础和软基础单独或共同影响准联盟关系的构建。同时，准联盟关系的构建与发展还受成员体之间的分歧与联盟安全困境的制约，其主要表现为四个制约变量——分歧、牵连、抛弃和挑衅。准联盟的实质是安全合作关系，而后者最重要内容就是国际实体付出一定成本，以图获得回报。对外决策者必须在获得利益回报与付出成本之间进行权衡，以求收益的最大化。在国际安全领域，决策者会在安全合作的促进因素——安全威胁、发展利益、意识形态和文化认同中的若干变量与安全合作的制约因素——分歧、牵连、抛弃和挑衅中的若干变量之间进行成本核算。如果决策者认为只有避免纷争才能保全自己从而实现收益最大化，他们就宁可不参与国际安全合作而倾向于选择中立政策，并可能通过提高自身实力来解决面临的问题；如果决策者认为只有结盟才能实现收益最大化，他们就会不顾联盟安全困境和成员之间的差异而倾向于选择结盟政策；如果决策者认为只有兼顾结盟带来的收益并降低结盟所需的成本才能实现收益最大化，他们就会倾向于选择准结盟政策。具有相同关切的国家就会建立准联盟关系。在准联盟状态下，促进准联盟关系构建的变量(安全威胁、发展利益、意识形态和文化认同中若干项)和制约准联盟关系的变量(分歧、牵连、抛弃和挑衅中若干项)便会在决策者心里形成一组“多元平衡”。简言之，多元平衡是准联盟关系构建的原动力。当国际实体选择中立政策时，它们多表现为超脱政策与逃避政策；当国际实体选择结盟政策时，它们多表现为制衡与追随政策；当国际实体选择准联盟关系时，它们多表现为准制衡政策与准追随政策。权力平衡、威胁平衡与利益平衡均属一种静态平衡，而多元平衡则属一种动态平衡；同样，联盟属一种静态的安全合作，准联盟则属一种动态的安全合作。
同正式联盟相比，准联盟的优点主要体现在它的隐蔽性、便利性和灵活性，准联盟成员拥有更多的行动自由。同时，准联盟有其自身难以克服的缺陷。首先，准联盟成员之间的安全合作关系较为松散，口头或书面安全承诺不具有法律效力，各行为体往往在危机爆发之后
In international security cooperation, regimes rely not only on formal alliances, but also on informal security arrangement—Quasi-Alliance, which is hereby defined as permanent or ad hoc informal security cooperation arrangement, based not on military treaties, but on tacit agreements between two or among more international regimes. Quasi-Alliance is characterized by six features. First, in terms of size, there exist both bilateral and multilateral Quasi-Alliances. Second, Quasi-Alliance consists of both sovereign states and non-sovereign entities. Third, the founding of Quasi-Alliance hinges on the formation of tacit agreement between and among the elites of different states. Fourth, Quasi-Alliance can be either tacit or ad hoc, or both. Fifth, the management of Quasi-Alliance relies on mutual expectation based on communiques, joint declarations, memorandums, treaties of friendship and cooperation, declarations on the press conference, domestic laws or even UN resolutions, instead of trading military treaties. Finally, the essence of Quasi-Alliance is military and security cooperation targeting at the third party, not economic, social or cultural one.
There are four encouraging variables shaping Quasi-Alliance formation, among which the common threat and development interest form the core, while ideology and cultural identity act as the periphery. Likewise, due to the differences and alliance security dilemma, there exist four discouraging variables shaping Quasi-Alliance formation: divergence, entrapment, abandonment and provocation. For its essence of security cooperation, Quasi-Alliance members not only can profit from the promises of support from quasi-allies, but need to pay their share of costs as well. Hence policy-makers may have a delicate calculation between costs and rewards. The process of their calculation involves all the encouraging and discouraging variables concerned. If they think they can only maximize the rewards by self-reliance, policy-makers would rather not engage in such cooperation and may choose neutrality; if they think they can only maximize the rewards by joining in an alliance, policy-makers will ignore their divergence and obstacles framed by alliance dilemma, tending to form alliance with the states which share the common concerns; if they think they can only maximize the rewards by participating in a limited security cooperation and meanwhile keep a certain degree of independent action, policy-makers will form a Quasi-Alliance with parties concerned, and the encouraging variables and discouraging variables will compose a multi-facet balance, which is the engine driving Quasi-Alliance formation. When regimes choose neutrality, they will tend to evade threat or hide themselves from a dispute; when regimes choose alliance, they will tend to balance or bandwagon; when they choose Quasi-Alliance, they will tend to follow quasi-balancing or quasi-bandwagoning. Multi-facet balancing is a more dynamic compared with balance of power, balance of threat or balance of interest; Quasi-Alliance is also more dynamic, compared with alliance.
Quasi-Alliance exhibits functions that formal alliance cannot provide, as the security cooperation in Quasi-Alliance is secret, temporary, expedient and flexible. On
促进准联盟关系构建的变量主要有四个：共同的安全威胁和发展利益、一致的意识形态和文化认同。
在这四个变量中，安全威胁和发展利益是构建准联盟关系的硬基础，意识形态和文化认同是准联盟关系构建的软基础。硬基础和软基础单独或共同影响准联盟关系的构建。同时，准联盟关系的构建与发展还受成员体之间的分歧与联盟安全困境的制约，其主要表现为四个制约变量——分歧、牵连、抛弃和挑衅。准联盟的实质是安全合作关系，而后者最重要内容就是国际实体付出一定成本，以图获得回报。对外决策者必须在获得利益回报与付出成本之间进行权衡，以求收益的最大化。在国际安全领域，决策者会在安全合作的促进因素——安全威胁、发展利益、意识形态和文化认同中的若干变量与安全合作的制约因素——分歧、牵连、抛弃和挑衅中的若干变量之间进行成本核算。如果决策者认为只有避免纷争才能保全自己从而实现收益最大化，他们就宁可不参与国际安全合作而倾向于选择中立政策，并可能通过提高自身实力来解决面临的问题；如果决策者认为只有结盟才能实现收益最大化，他们就会不顾联盟安全困境和成员之间的差异而倾向于选择结盟政策；如果决策者认为只有兼顾结盟带来的收益并降低结盟所需的成本才能实现收益最大化，他们就会倾向于选择准结盟政策。具有相同关切的国家就会建立准联盟关系。在准联盟状态下，促进准联盟关系构建的变量(安全威胁、发展利益、意识形态和文化认同中若干项)和制约准联盟关系的变量(分歧、牵连、抛弃和挑衅中若干项)便会在决策者心里形成一组“多元平衡”。简言之，多元平衡是准联盟关系构建的原动力。当国际实体选择中立政策时，它们多表现为超脱政策与逃避政策；当国际实体选择结盟政策时，它们多表现为制衡与追随政策；当国际实体选择准联盟关系时，它们多表现为准制衡政策与准追随政策。权力平衡、威胁平衡与利益平衡均属一种静态平衡，而多元平衡则属一种动态平衡；同样，联盟属一种静态的安全合作，准联盟则属一种动态的安全合作。
同正式联盟相比，准联盟的优点主要体现在它的隐蔽性、便利性和灵活性，准联盟成员拥有更多的行动自由。同时，准联盟有其自身难以克服的缺陷。首先，准联盟成员之间的安全合作关系较为松散，口头或书面安全承诺不具有法律效力，各行为体往往在危机爆发之后
In international security cooperation, regimes rely not only on formal alliances, but also on informal security arrangement—Quasi-Alliance, which is hereby defined as permanent or ad hoc informal security cooperation arrangement, based not on military treaties, but on tacit agreements between two or among more international regimes. Quasi-Alliance is characterized by six features. First, in terms of size, there exist both bilateral and multilateral Quasi-Alliances. Second, Quasi-Alliance consists of both sovereign states and non-sovereign entities. Third, the founding of Quasi-Alliance hinges on the formation of tacit agreement between and among the elites of different states. Fourth, Quasi-Alliance can be either tacit or ad hoc, or both. Fifth, the management of Quasi-Alliance relies on mutual expectation based on communiques, joint declarations, memorandums, treaties of friendship and cooperation, declarations on the press conference, domestic laws or even UN resolutions, instead of trading military treaties. Finally, the essence of Quasi-Alliance is military and security cooperation targeting at the third party, not economic, social or cultural one.
There are four encouraging variables shaping Quasi-Alliance formation, among which the common threat and development interest form the core, while ideology and cultural identity act as the periphery. Likewise, due to the differences and alliance security dilemma, there exist four discouraging variables shaping Quasi-Alliance formation: divergence, entrapment, abandonment and provocation. For its essence of security cooperation, Quasi-Alliance members not only can profit from the promises of support from quasi-allies, but need to pay their share of costs as well. Hence policy-makers may have a delicate calculation between costs and rewards. The process of their calculation involves all the encouraging and discouraging variables concerned. If they think they can only maximize the rewards by self-reliance, policy-makers would rather not engage in such cooperation and may choose neutrality; if they think they can only maximize the rewards by joining in an alliance, policy-makers will ignore their divergence and obstacles framed by alliance dilemma, tending to form alliance with the states which share the common concerns; if they think they can only maximize the rewards by participating in a limited security cooperation and meanwhile keep a certain degree of independent action, policy-makers will form a Quasi-Alliance with parties concerned, and the encouraging variables and discouraging variables will compose a multi-facet balance, which is the engine driving Quasi-Alliance formation. When regimes choose neutrality, they will tend to evade threat or hide themselves from a dispute; when regimes choose alliance, they will tend to balance or bandwagon; when they choose Quasi-Alliance, they will tend to follow quasi-balancing or quasi-bandwagoning. Multi-facet balancing is a more dynamic compared with balance of power, balance of threat or balance of interest; Quasi-Alliance is also more dynamic, compared with alliance.
Quasi-Alliance exhibits functions that formal alliance cannot provide, as the security cooperation in Quasi-Alliance is secret, temporary, expedient and flexible. On
引文
① Mancur Olson Jr. and Richard Zeckhauser, "An Economic Theory of Alliances," The Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 48, No. 3, 1966.
② William H. Riker, The Theory of Folitical Coalitions, CT: Yale University, Press, 1962, pp. 32-33.
① 本文中的国际实体系指那些在国际上有独立行为能力的国际政治实体，它包括主权国家和非主权政治实体，后者如中国台湾、中国香港等。
② 关于这一概念的提出可参见孙德刚：《论约翰逊政府时期美以‘准联盟’关系的形成》，载《中东研究》，2003年第2期，第30页：《国际关系中准联盟现象初探》，载《西亚非洲》，2005年第4期，第29页。
③ Samuel P. Huntington, "America's Changing Strategic Interests," Survival, Vol. 33, No. 1, 1991, p. 6.
① Michael Donelan, Elements of International Political Theory, Oxford: Clarendon Press, 1992, p. 121. 汉语中联盟的含义比较宽泛，往往有不同的内涵，如东南亚国家联盟(Association)、欧洲联盟(Union)、国际联盟(League)、反恐联盟(Coalition)等，本章主要探讨国际安全领域中的联盟(Alliance)理论。另外，有些学者也用“同盟”一词，为行文统一，本文一律使用“联盟”一词。
② [美]兹比格纽·布热律斯基著，中国国际问题研究所译：《大棋局——美国的首要地位及其地缘战略》，上海：上海人民出版社，1998年版，第36页。
③ Francis A. Beer, ed., Alliances: Latent War Communities in the Contemporary World, New York: Holt, Rinehart and Winston, 1970, p. 4.
④ George Liska, Nations in Alliance: The Limits of Interdependence, Baltimore: Johns Hopkins Press, 1968, p.116.
⑤ William C. Olson, The Theory and Practice of International Relations, 7th ed., New Jersey: Englewood Cliffs, 1987, p. 174.
① See Stephen M. Walt, The Origins of Alliances, Ithaca: Cornell University press, 1987; D. Scott Bennett, "Testing Alternative Models of Alliance Duration, 1816-1984,"American Journal of Political Science. Vol. 41. No.3, 1997,pp. 846-878．沃尔特主要探讨了联盟形成的主要原因：贝内特主要考察了联盟解体(以及存在)的内存动力。
② See Mancur Olson Jr., The Logic of Collective Action: Public Goods and the Theory of Groups, Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1971.
③ See David J. Singer, ed., Quantitative International Politics: Insights and Evidence, New York: Free Press, 1968.
④ Richard E. Neustadt, Alliance Politics, Columbia: Columbia University Press, 1970, p. 1.
⑤ Jack S. Levy, "Alliance Formation and War Behavior: An Analysis of the Great Powers, 1495-1975," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 25, No. 4, 1981, p. 582.
① Julian R., Christopher Bidden and Stevcn Rosen, eds., Alliance in International Politics, Boston, Mass.: Allyn and Bacon, Inc., 1970, p. 25.
② Arnold Wolfers, Discord and Collaboration: Essays on International Politics, Baltimore: The Johns Hopkins Press, 1967, pp. 183-189.
③ Hans J. Morgenthau and Kenneth W. Thompson, Politics among Nations: The Struggle for Power and Peace, 7th ed., New Delhi: Alfred A. Knopf, 1985, p. 213.
④ 集体安全与联盟区别的示意图可参见Hans J．Morgenthau and Kenneth W. Thompson, Politics among Nations, p.456.
⑤ Arnold Wolfers, "Alliances," in David L. Sillls, ed., International Encyclopedia of Social Sciences, New York: Macmillan press, 1968, p. 270; Hans J. Morgenthau and Kenneth W. Thompson, Politics among Nations, p. 311.
⑥ Julian R. Friedman, Christopher Biaden and Steven Rosen, eds., Alliance in International Politics, p. 25.
⑦ 系统论述联盟与集体安全关系的论著并不多，可参见Tunde Adeniran, Introduction to International Relations, Yaba Lagos：Macmillan, 1983, Chapter 18, pp. 129-134．
① Arnold Wolfers, "Alliances," in Sills, ed., International Encyclopedia of Social Sciences, pp. 269-272.
② Martin Wight, Power Politics, Leicester, UK: Leicester University Press, 1978, p. 122.
③ Edwin Fedder, "The Concept of Alliance," International Studies Quarterly, Vol. 12, No. 1, 1968, p. 67.
④ Liska, Nations in Alliance, pp. 12-13.
⑤ Ibid., pp. 5-13.
⑥ Woosang Kim, "Power, Alliance, and Major Wars, 1816-1975,"Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 33, No. 2, 1989, p. 255.
⑦ Charles W. Kegley and Gregory A. Raymond, "Alliance Norms and War:A New Piece in an Old Puzzle," in J. David Singer and Richard J. Stoll, eds., Quantitative Indicators in World Politics, New York: Praeger, 1984,p. 573.
① David Singer and Melvin Small, "Alliance Aggregation and the Onset of War," in Francis A. Beer, ed., Alliances: Latent War Communities in the Contemporary World, New York: Holt, Rinehart and Winston, 1970; Mancur Olson Jr. and Richard Zeckhauser, "An Economic Theory of Alliances," Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 48, No. 3,1966. 在考察联盟与战争之间关系的研究成果中，多数学者采用量化分析方法，以找出二者之间内在的关联。可参见Douglas M. Gibler and John A. Vasquez, "Uncovering the Dangerous Alliances, 1495-1980," International Studies Quarterly, Vol. 42, No. 4, 1998, pp. 785-807．对这种研究方法提出批评的是史密斯。他认为，盟友之间安全承诺的可信度减小可能会诱发潜在敌人发动战争。另外，联盟的攻防态势也影响战争。一方面，防御性联盟的存在能够鼓励受到威胁的国家采取抵抗措施，这增加了爆发战争的可能性：另一方面，防御性联盟的存在又能够对潜在对手起到威慑作用，从而又抑制了战争的爆发。所以史密斯认为，以往关于联盟与战争频率关系的研究存在问题。Alastair Smith, "Alliance Formation and War," International Studies Quarterly, Vol. 39, No. 4, 1995, p. 419.
② Hans J. Morgenthau and Kenneth W. Thompson, Politics among Nations, pp. 198-213 ; Hans J. Morgenthau, "Alliances in Theory and Practice", in Arnold Wolfers, ed., Alliance Policy in the Cold War, Baltimore, MD: The Johns Hopkins Press, 1959, pp. 213-217.
③ Hans J. Morgenthau and Kenneth W. Thompson, Politics among Nations, pp. 201-202.
④ Gen. Wesley Clark, "America's Virtual Empire," Washington Monthly, November 2003.http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/features/2003/0311.clark.html.
① Hans J. Morgenthau and Kenneth W. Thompson, Politics among Nations, pp. 203-204.
② [美]约翰·米尔斯海默著，王义桅、唐小松译：《大国政治的悲剧》，上海：上海人民出版社，2003年版，第60页。
③ Edwin Fedder,“The Concept of Alliance," p.71.
④ 关于国际关系中的知觉与错觉对国家决策行为的影响可参见Robert Jervis, Perception and Misperception in International Politics, Princeton, N. J.: Princeton University Press, 1976.
⑤ Hans J. Morgenthau and Kenneth W. Thompson, Politics among Nations, pp. 201-203．
⑥ Arnold Wolfers. ed., Alliance Policy in the Cold War, p. 270.
⑦ Alexander Wendt, Social Theory of International Politics, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press,1999, p. 124.也可参阅孙德刚：《攻防态势与政治联合的最佳规模》，载《外交评论》．2006年第2期。
① Julian R. Friedman, Christopher Bladen and Steven Rosen, eds., Alliance in International Politics, p. 95.
② Ibid., pp. 21-22.
③ Pierre M. Gallois, "U. S. Strategy and the Defense of Europe"，Obis, Vol. Ⅶ. No. 2, Summer 1963, pp. 226-249;Henry A. Kissinger, The Troubled Partnership, Greenwood Press, 1982, pp. 11-13.两人都认为，核武器使大国具有了强大的威慑能力，盟友的战略作用下降，同时盟友不会为了信守承诺而冒与敌人同归于尽的风险，因此传统的联盟从实质来看已经过时了，至少作用和功能已大大降低。关于这一点，利斯卡在20世纪60年代也有过相似的论述，他认为：“在多极体系下，只要大国具有强大的核能力与远程投送工具，联盟就会成为不必要的东西。”参见George F. Liska, Nations in Alliance: The Limits of Interdependence, p. 272.
④ See William H. Riker, The Theory of Political Coalition, New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 1962.
⑤ See Robert L. Rothstein, Alliances and Small Powers, New York: Columbia University Ptess, 1968.
⑥ G. R. Berridge, International Politics: States, Power and Conflict since 1945, New York: Prentice Hall, 1997, p. 175.
⑦ See Mancur Olson Jr. and Richard Zeckhauser, "An Economic Theory of Alliances."
① Todd Sander, "The Economic Theory of Alliances: A Survey," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 37, No. 3, September 1993, p. 446.
② Glenn Palmer, "Corralling the Free Rider: Deterrence and the Western Alliance," International Studies Quarterly, Vol. 34. No.1, p. 162.
③ 有学者将物品分为三类：公共物品、私有物品和模糊物品，参见John G. Head and Carl S. Shoup, "Public Goods, Private Goods, and Ambiguous Goods," The Economic Journal, Vol. 79, No. 315, 1969, p. 567.
④ Todd Sandier, and Jon Cauley, "On The Economic Theory of Alliances," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 19, No. 2, 1975, pp. 330-332.
⑤ T. Sandler, "The Economic Theory of Alliances: Realized," in C. Liske, W. Loehr and J. McCamant, eds., Comparative Public Policy: Issues, Theories, and Methods, New York: Wiley, 1975, pp. 223-226.
⑥ Avery Goldstein, "Discounting the Free Ride: Alliances and Security in the Postwar World," International Organization, Vol. 49, No. 1, Winter 1995, pp. 68-69.
⑦ Glenn Palmer, and J Sky David, "Multiple Goals or Detterence: A Test of Two Models in Nuclear and Nonnuclear Alliances, The Joural of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 43, No. 6, 1999, pp. 751-754.
① Rothstein, Alliances and Small Powers, p. 55.
② Kenneth Waltz, Theory of International Politics, Mass.: Addison Wesley, 1979, pp. 117-118; p. 126.
③ Walt, The Origins of Alliances, pp. 274-275.
④ Waltz, Theory of International Politics, p. 126.
① Walt, The Origins of Alliances, pp. 17-49.
② 尽管威胁的大小与地缘临近性之间存在重要关联，但结盟与地缘临近性之间并不存在必然的联系。参见K. J. Holsti, "Diplomatic Coalition and Military Alliances", in Julian R. Friedman, Christopher Bladen and Steven Rosen, eds, Alliance in International Politics, p. 8.
③ 这还表现在沃尔特撰写的两篇文章中，可参见Stephen M. walt, "Testing Theories of Alliance Formation: The Case of Southeast Asia," International Organization, Vol. 43, No.1, Spring 1992, pp, 448-482; Stephen M. Walt, "Alliance, Threats, and U. S. Grand Strategy: A Reply to Kaufman and Labs," Security Studies, Vol. 1, No. 1,Spring 1992, pp. 448-482.
④ Erick Gartzke and Kristian S. Gleditsch, "Balancing, Bandwagoning, Bargaining, and War," March 2002, pp. 4-5. http://www.essex.ac.uk/ecpr/events/jointsessions/paperarchive/edinburgh/ws9/GleditschGartzke.pdf.
⑤ Glenn H. Snyder, "Alliances, Balances and Stability," International Organization, Vol. 45, No. 1, 1991, pp.121-142.
① Chong Ja Ian, Revisiting Responses to Power Preponderance: Going Beyond the Balancing-Bandwagoning Dichotomy, Singapore: Institute of Defense and Strategic Studies, 2003, pp. 10-14; 汪伟民：《联盟理论与美国的联盟战略》(复旦大学博士论文)，2005年4月，第180—183页。
② Ibid., p. 10.
③ Wendt, Social Theory of International Politics, pp. 17-18.
④ [美]米尔斯海默著：《大国政治的悲剧》，第203、219页。
⑤ David Priess, "Balance-of-threat Theory and the Genesis of the Gulf Cooperation Council," Security Studies, Vol. 5, No. 4, 1996, pp. 143-171; Scott Cooper, "State-Centric Balance-of-Threat Theory: Explaining the Misunderstood Gulf Cooperation Council," Security Studies, Vol. 13, No. 2, 2003, pp. 306-349. 库帕的观点与罗伯特·罗思坦关于小国与联盟的观点较为接近。罗思坦也认为，小国不仅关注外来威胁，而且关注国内稳定。
① Randall L. Schweller, "Neorealism's Status-Quo Bias: What Security Dilemma?".in Benjamin Frankel, ed., Realism: Restatements and Renewal, London: Frank Cass, 1996, pp. 90-121; Randall L, Schweller, "Bandwagoning for Profit: Bring the Revisionist State Back In," International Organization, Vol. 42, No.1, Spring 1988, pp. 104-105.
② See Robert Powell, In the Shadow of Power, New Jersey: Princeton University Press, 1999, Chapter 5.
③ See Paul W Schroeder, "Historical Reality vs. Neo-realist Theory", International Security, Vol, 19, No. 2, Summer 1994.
④ See Neustadt, Alliance Politics, Introduction and Chapter One.
⑤ Steven David, Choosing Sides: Alignment and Realignment in the Third World, Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1991, Introduction.
① Robert O. Keohane, "Alliance, Threats and the Uses of Neorealism," International Security, Vol. 13, No. 2,Summer 1988, pp. 174-175.
② Michael F. Altfeld, "The Decision to Ally: and Test, "The Western Political Quarterly, Vol. 37, No. 4, December 1984, pp. 523-544.
③ James Morrow. "Alliances and Asymmetry: An Alternative to the Capability Model of Alliances,"American Journal of, Political. Science, Vol. 47, No. 4, 1991, p. 904. 就联盟内部力量分部(对称性或非对称性)与联盟凝聚力关系问题，学界存在不同看法。如韦茨曼(Patricia A. Weitsman)认为，就战时联盟而言，对称性联盟将增强联盟的凝聚力，非对称性联盟将导致联盟四分五裂。Patricia A. Weitsman, "Alliance Cohesion and Coalition Warfare: The Central Powers and Triple Entente," Security Studies, Vol. 12, No. 3, 2003, p. 85.
④ Randolph M. Siverson and Harvey Start, "Regime Change and the Restructuring of Alliances," American Journal of Political Science, Vol. 38, No. 1, 1994, pp. 145-161.
⑤ Thomas J. Christensen and Jack Snyder, "Chain Gangs and Passed Bucks: Predicting Alliance Patterns in Multinolarity". International Organization, Vol. 44, No. 1, Spring 1990, p. 143.
⑥ 安全困境也叫安全两难，是指在缺乏互信的国际无政府状态下，国际实体为寻求安全而相互竞争、最终 由于无法获得绝对安全而注定在竞争中失败这一状态。John H. Herz, International Politics in the Atomic Age, New York: Columbia University Press, 1959, pp. 230-231; Robert Jervis, "Cooperation under the Security Dilemma," World Politics, Vol. 30, No. 2, 1978.
① Thomas J. Christensen and Jack Snyder, "Chain Gangs and Passed Bucks: Predicting Alliance Patterns in Multipolarity", pp. 144—167．至于为什么双边联盟比多边联盟更容易引发战争，辛格等人认为主要是因为双边联盟多为进攻性联盟，而多边联盟多为防御性联盟。参见Volker Ksause and J. David Singer, "Patterns of Alliance Commitments and the Risk of Armed Conflict Involvement, 1816-1984," in Gerald Schneider and Patricia A. Weitsman, eds., Enforcing Cooperation: Risky States and International Management of Conflict, Hampshire and London: Macmillan Press Ltd., 1997, pp. 88-89.
② 于铁军：《国际政治中的同盟理论：进展与争论》．载《欧洲》，1999年第5期，第46页。
③ James D. Morrow, "Arms versus Allies: Trade-Offs in the Search for Security," International Organization, Vol. 47, No. 2, 1993, p. 208.
① Glenn H. Snyder, "The Security Dilemma in Alliance Politics", World Politics, Vol. 34, No. 3, July 1984, pp.461-495.
② See Singer and Small, "Alliance Aggregation and the Onset of War."
③ Alvin M. Saperstein, "Alliance Building versus Independent Action," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 36,No. 3, Spring 1992, pp. 518-545.
④ Kegley and Raymond, "Alliance Norms and War: A New Piece in an Old Puzzle," p. 572．后来两人在此文章的基础上完成了一本论著，参见Charles W. Jr. Kegley and Gregory A. Raymond, When Trust Breaks Down: Alliance Norms and World Politics, Columbia: University of South Carolina Press, 1990.
⑤ Kegley and Raymond, When Trust Breaks Down, p. 254.
⑥ Randolph M. Siverson and Joel King, "Attributes of National Alliance Membership and War Participation, 1815-1965," American Journal of Political Science, Vol. 24, No. 1, 1980, p. 1.
① Shu Guang Zhang, Economic Cold War: America's Economic Embargo against China and the Sino-Soviet Alliance, 1949-1963, Washington, DC and Stanford, Calif.: Woodrow Wilson Center Press and Stanford University Press. 2001. p. 268.
② 陈兼：《张曙光著“经济冷战：美国对华经济禁运和中苏同盟”》，载《历史研究》，2003年第4期，第188页。
③ Saperstein, "Alliance Building versus Independent Action," pp. 518-545.
④ Riker. The Theory of Political Coalitions, pp. 32-33.
① Ibid., pp. 167—168.
② 关于“零和游戏”的论述可参见Riker, The Theoly of Political Coalition, p. 15.
③ Riker, The Theory of Political Coalition, pp. 213-214.
④ Ole R. Holsti, "Alliance and Coalition Diplomacy," in James N. Rosenau, Kenneth W. Thompson and Gavin Boyd, eds., World Politics, New York: Free Press, 1976, p. 342.
⑤ Fedder, "The Concept of Alliance," pp. 67-71.
⑥ 目前国内学界普遍将基欧汉视作制度主义的代表人物，但基欧汉本人却认为自已并不属于自由主义，而属于现实主义。基欧汉认为，制度主义的理论分析框架实际上是结构现实主义。参见李少军：《国际政治学概论》，上海：上海人民出版社，2002年版，第62页。
① Keohane, "Alliances, Threats, and the Uses of Neorealism," pp. 174-175; Joseph Nye, "Multilateralism", Foreign Policy, No. 2, Summer 1985.
② 功能主义的代表人物是米特尼(David Mitrany)。参见L. Claude Jr., Swords into Plowshares: The Problems and Progress of International Organization, New York: Random House, 1971.
③ George Liska, Alliances and the Third World, Baltimore: The Johns Hopkins Press, 1968, p. 23.
④ Friedman, Bladen and Rosen, eds., Alliance in International Politics, p. 8.
⑤ Morgenthau and Thompson, Politics among Nations, p. 553.
⑥ Philip H. Gordon, "Recasting the Atlantic Alliance," Survival, Vol. 38, No. 1, Spring 1996, p.151; Michael Ruhle and Nick Williams, Why NATO Will Survive, Comparative Strategy, Vol. 16, No. 1, 1997, p. 111. 该文章认为，“北约的存在是为了抵抗苏联的威胁”这一看法是完全错误的。
⑦ Robert O. Keohane, After Hegemony: Cooperation and Discord in the World Political Econony, Princeton:Princeton University Press, 1984, pp. 243-247.
⑧ Karl Deutsch, Political Community at the International Level: Problems of Measurement and Definition, N. Y.:Garden City, 1954, p. 33; Karl Deutsch., Political Community and the North Atlantic Area: International Organization in the Light of Historical Experience, Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1957, Chapter Two. 多伊奇提出的理论假设既促进了制度主义联盟理论的发展，也促进了建构主义联盟理论的发展。
① Deutsch., Political Community and the North Atlantic Area, p. 7.
② John S. Duffield, "International Regimes and Alliance Behavior: Explaining NATO Conventional Force Levels," International Organization, Vol. 46; No. 4, 1992, pp. 832-840.
③ Barry Rubin and Thomas A. Keaney eds., US Allies in A Changing World, London: FRANK CASS, 2001, p. 31.
④ Robert McCalla, "NATO's Persistence after the Cold War," International Organization, Vol. 50, No. 3, Summer 1996, p. 445.
① See Celeste A. Wallander, "Institutional Assets and Adaptability: NATO after the Cold War," International Organization, Vol. 54, No. 4, Autumn 2000; David Lake, "Beyond Anarchy: The Importance of Security Institutions," International Security, Vol. 26, No. 1, Summer 2001.
② Philip R. Jones, "Defense Alliances and International Trade," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 32, No. 1,1988, pp. 123-124.
③ Joanne Gowa, Allies, Adversaries, and International Trade, Princeton, New Jersey: Princeton University Press,p. 6.
④ Ibid., p. 7.
⑤ Edward D. Mansfleld, "Alliances, Preferential Trading Arrangements and Sanctions," Journal of International Affairs, Summer 1994, Vol. 48, No. 1, conclusion. 关于经济制裁与联盟关系的研究成果还可以参见Shu Guang zhang. Economic Cold War.
① Bennett, "Testing Alternative Models of Alliance Duration, 1816-1984," pp. 874-875.
② [美]米尔斯海默 著：《人国政治的悲剧》，第46页；John J. Mearsheimer, "The False Promise of International Institution," International Security, Vol. 19, No. 4, Winter 1994-1995, p. 47.
③ Stephen M. Walt, "Why Alliances Endure or Collapse," Survival, Vol. 39, No. 1, Spring 1997, pp. 166-167.
④ 倪世雄等著：《当代西方国际关系理论》，上海：复旦大学出版社，2001年版，第227页。另可参见Michael N. Barnett, "Identity and Alliances in the Middle East," in Peter J. Katzenstein, ed., The Culture of National Security: Norms and Identity in World Politics. New York: Columbia University Press, 1996.
① Friedman, Bladen and Rosen, eds., Alliance in International Politics, p. 125.
② Liska, Nations in Alliance, pp.12-13.
③ Alexander Wendt, Social Theory of International Politics, pp. 4-6.
④ Thomas Risse-Kappen, "Collective Identity in a Democratic Community: The Case of NATO," in Peter J. Katzenstein ed., The Culture of National Security: Norms and ldentity in World Politics, p. 367.
⑤ Ibid., pp. 364-365.
⑥ Ibid., p. 371
康德文化的联盟观属于建构主义联盟观的一部分，可参见Wendt, Social Theory of International Politics, pp.301-312.
① 也有些中国学者将其译为“认知联盟”，参见王帆：《认知联盟理论评析》，载《欧洲研究》．2003年第1期。
② Amos A. Jordan, American National Security, Baltimore: The Johns Hopkins Press, 1989, pp. 500-501.
③ Rubin and Keaney, US Allies in A Changing World, pp.29-48.
④ Alexander Wendt, "Collective Identity Formation and the International State", American Political Science Review, Vol. 88, No. 2, 1994, p.167.
⑤ Barnett, "Identity and Alliances in the Middle East," pp. 403-408.
⑥ Ibid., pp. 413-436.
① F. Gregory Gause, "Balancing What? Threat Perception and Alliance Choice in the Gulf," Security Studies, Vol. 13. No. 2. 2003. pp. 273-305.
② 温特在《国际政治的社会理论》一书曾试图将科学的研究方法(实证主义)和建构主义完美地结合到起，但结果似乎并不令人满意。参见Wendt, Social Theory of International Politics,pp.40—41.
③ Ibid., pp. 370-376: 于铁军：《国际政治中的同盟理论：进展与争论》，第24页。
① 当然，这五个概念当中有的属于政治术语(如Alignment)，有的属于外交用语(如Coalilion和Entente)，有的则属于学术概念(如Aliance)，在探讨它们的运作过程时学界常常并不拘泥于严格的界定。
② Julian R. Friedman, Christopher Bladen and Steven Rosen, eds., Alliance in lnternational Politics, Boston, Mass.: Allyn and Bacon, Inc., 1970, p. 321.
③ Roger V. Dingman, "Theories of, and Approaches to, Alliance Politics," in Paul Gordon Lauren ed., Diplomacy: New Approaches in History, Theory, and Policy, London: Collier Macmillan Publishers, 1979, p. 249.
④ Michael Don Ward, Research Gaps in Alliance Dynamics: Bolk 1, Denver, Colorado: University of Denver, 1982, pp. 4-5. 不过，签订了《中立协定》或《互不侵犯条约》是否意味着结盟还值得商榷，详见下文分析。
① Robert E. Osgood, Alliances and American Foreign Policy, Baltimore and London: The Johns Hopkins Press, 1968, p. 17.
② Julian R. Friedman, Christopher Bladen and Steven Rosen, eds., Alliance in International Politics, p. 5.
③ Edwin Fedder, "The Concept of Alliance,"International Studies Quarterly, Vol. 12, No. 1, 1968, p. 68; P. 81.
④ Douglas M. Gibler and John A. Vasquez, "Uncovering the Dangerous Alliances, 1495-1980,"International Studies Quarterly, Vol. 42, No. 4, 1998, p. 787.
⑤ Glenn H. Snyder, Alliance Politics, Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 1997, p. 4.
⑥ Glenn H. Snyder, "Alliance Theory: A Neorealist First Cut", Journal of International Affairs, Vol.44, No, 1,Spring 1990.
⑦ T. N. Dupuy, ed., International Military and Defense Encyclopedia, Maxwell Macmillan. Item "Alliance, Military and Political", Maxwell Macmillan Inc., 1993, p. 135.
⑧ Webster's Encyclopedic Unabridged Dictionary of the English Language, New York: Gramercy Books, 1996, p.39.
① 将此学派关于联盟的界定视为主流联盟定义主要基于两点考虑，一是因为持这一观点的学者在数量上占主导地位，二是因为持这一观点的学者在联盟理论研究的深度方面处于领先位置。参见Ole R. Holsti, Unity and Disintegration in International Alliances: Comparative Studies, New York: John Wiley & Sons, 1973, p. 4;Charles W. Kegley Jr. and Gregory A. Raymond, When Trust Breaks Down: Alliance Norms and World Politics, Columbia: University of South Carolina Press, 1990, p. 52; Warren E Kimbal, "Alliances, Coalitions, and Ententes," in Encyclopedia of American Foreign Policy, Vol.1, New York: Charles Scribner's Sons, 2002, p. 14; Glenn H. Snyder, Alliance Politics, p. 4; Bruce Russett, "An Empirical Typology of International Military Alliances," Midwest Journal of Political Science, Vol. 15, No. 2, May 1971; David V. Edwards, International Political Analysis, New York: Holt, Rinehart and Wintston, 1969, p. 206; Roger V. Dingman, "Theories of, and Approaches to, Alliance Politics," p. 249.
② Friedman, Bladen and Rosen, eds, Alliance in International Politics, p. 15.
③ Ole R. Holsti, "Alliance and Coalition Diplomacy," in James N. Rosenau, Kenneth W. Thompson and Gavin Boyd, eds., World Politics, New York: Free Press, 1976, p. 339.
④ Charles W. Kegley Jr. and Eugene R. Wittkopf, World Politics: Trend and Transformation, 7th ed., Boston and New York: Bedford/St. Marlin's, 1999, p, 463.
⑤ 中国社会科学院语言研究所词典编辑室编：《现代汉语词典》，北京：商务印书馆，1998年版，第785页。
⑥ Henry A. Kissinger, The Troubled Partnership, New York: Greenwood Press, 1982, p. 11.
⑦ Joshna S. Goldstein, International Relations, 2~(nd) ed., Happer Collins: Happer Collins College Publisher. 1996, p.83.
⑧ Joseph S. Nye Jr., Understanding International Conflicts: An Introduction to Theory and History, 2~(nd) ed., New York: Longman, 1997, p. 58.
① J. David Singer and Melvin Small, "Formal Alliances, 1815-1939," Journal of Peace Research, Vol. 3, No. 1,1966, p. 5; Jack S. Levy, "Alliance Formation and War Behavior: An Analysis of the Great Powers, 1495-1975," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 25, No. 4, 1981, p. 588. 当然，将《互不侵犯条约》视作结盟的标志在实证上面临许多难题。例如，1970年苏联与联邦德国签订了《苏德放弃使用武力协定》，按照此标准苏德应是军事联盟关系。实际上《互不侵犯条约》与《共同防御条约》存在较大的差别，前者主要基于双方或多方并行不悖的利益，后者主要基于共同敌人或共同威胁。
② Ward, Research Gaps in Alliance Dynamics, p. 5.
③ Stephen M. Walt, The Origins of Alliances, Ithaca: Cornell University press, 1987, p. 1. 索罗金对沃尔特提出的联盟的概念提出了质疑。他认为：“美国同以色列从来就没有建立正式的联盟关系……将肯尼迪政府以来美国同以色列的关系看作是联盟关系在理论上是误导的，在实证上也是站不住脚的。”参见Gerald L. Sorokin,"Alliance Formation and General Deterrence: A Game-Theoretic Model and the Case of Israel," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 38, No. 2, June 1994, pp. 300-301.
④ 参见Barry Rubin and Thomas A. Keaney, eds., US Allies in A Changing World, London: Frank Cass, 2001. 此书第8篇和第10篇文章分别探讨了美以关系和美台关系，并认为它们都是联盟关系的实例。
⑤ 梅孜主编：《美台关系重要资料选编：1948．11-1996．4》，北京：时事出版社，1996年版，第318页。
① 传统现实主义联盟理论认为，联盟不同于松散型联盟(Alignment)在很大程度上在于前者的安全合作指向第三方，并且存在与第三方爆发冲突的潜在危险。参见George Modelski, "The Study of Alliances: A Review," The Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 7, No. 4, 1963, pp. 774-775.
② Francis A. Beer, ed., Alliances: Latent War Communities in the Contemporary World, New York: Holt, Rinehart and Winston, 1970, p. 92.
③ Michael Don Ward. Research Gaps in Alliance Dynamics, p. 6; Nazli Choucri, "The Perceptual Base of Nonalignment," The Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol, 13, No. 1, 1969. 这两篇文章所进行的研究都基于同样的理论假定，即国家要么与东方或西方国家结盟，要么像印度、埃及、印尼和南斯拉夫等亚非国家那样追求不结盟政策。
④ Hans J. Morgenthau and Kenneth W. Thompson. Politics among Nations: The Struggle for Power and Peace. 7th ed., New Delhi:Alfred A. Knopf, 1985, p. 203.
① 关于“特殊关系”的理论探讨可参见 Alex Danchev, "On specialness," International Affairs, Vol. 72, No. 4, 1996．
② Walt, The Origins of Alliances, Introduction; Rubin and Keaney, eds., US Allies in A Changing Wbrld, pp.145-180, pp. 201-224.
③ See Edward A. Olsen, US National Defense for the Twenty-First Century: The Grand Exit Strategy, London: Frank Cass, 2002.
④ Victor D. Cha, Alignment Despite Antagonism: The Unites States-Korea-Japan Security Triangle, Stanford: Stanford University Press, 1999, pp. 36-37.
① 参见Sylvia K. Crosbie, A Tacit Alliance: France and Israel fron Suez to The Six-Day War, Princeton: Princeton university Press, 1974. 该书主要梳理了1956-1967年法以关系发展的历史脉络。
② Gerald L. Sorokin, "Alliance Formation and General Deterrence: A Game-Theoretic Model and the Case of Israel," pp. 299-303.
③ [美]约翰·米尔斯海默著，王义桅、唐小松译：《大国政治的悲剧》，上海：上海人民出版社，2003年版．第355页。
④ George F. Lisla, Nations in Alliance: The Limits of Interdependence,Baltimore: Johns Hopkins Press, 1968, p.85.
① Osgood. Alliances and American Foreign Policy, p,20.
② 近代欧洲历史上也曾出现过准联盟关系，如1904年《英法协约》签署后的英法准联盟关系。
③ Christopher Marquis, "For Allies, 'I Do' Becomes 'Hey, Want to Dance?'" The New York Times, April 14, 2002, p. 16.
① Charles W. Kegley Jr. and Gregory A. Raymond, When Trust Breaks Down: Alliance Norms and World Politics, pp. 2-8.
② 孙德刚：《约翰逊政府时期美以“准联盟”关系的形成》，载《中东研究》，2003年第2期，第25-30页。
③ See Sylvia K. Crosbie, A Tacit Alliance.
① Bruce D. Berkowitz, "Realignment in International Treaty Organizations." International Studies Quarterly, Vol. 27, No. 1, March 1983, p. 85.
② Brent J. Talbot, Cooperative Security in the Era of US Primacy: Exploring the Leader-Follower Relationship During Coalition Operations, (A Dissertation), Ann Arbor: UMI, 2003, p. 34.
① Michael T. Klare, "Subterranean Alliances: America's Global Proxy Network," Journal of International Affairs, Vol. 43, No. 2, Summer/Fall 1989, pp. 102-105.
② 陈效卫著：《美国联盟战略研究》，北京：国防大学出版社，2002年版，第40页。
③ Madeleine Albright, "The Testing of American Foreign Policy," Foreign Affairs, Vol. 32, No, 6, Nov/Dec 1998, pp. 51-52.
① Richard N. Haass, "Defining U. S. Foreign Policy in Post-Post-Cold War World", Remarks to Foreign Polio, Association, New York, April 22, 2002. 转引自郑迎平：《布什政府的新联盟战略思想》，载《现代国际关系》，2002年第11期，第46—48页。
② Williamson Murray and Robert H. Scales, Jr., The Iraq War: A Military History, Cambridge: The Belknap Press,2003, p. 487.
① Ido Oren, "The War Proneness of Alliances," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 34, No. 2, 1990, p. 208.
② [美]理查德·N．哈斯著，陈谣遥、荣凌译：《规制主义——冷战后的美国全球战略》，北京：新华出版社1999年版，第100页。
① Michael T. Klare, "Subterranean Alliances: America's Global Proxy Network," pp.97-118.
② Thomas L. MacNaugher, Arms and Oil, U. S. Military Strategy and the Persian Gulf, Washington D. C.: Brookings, 1985, pp. 199-206.
③ Rajan Menon, "The End of Alliances", World Politics Journal, Vol. 20, No. 2, Summer 2003, pp. 1-20.
④ Kimbal, "Alliances, Coalitions, and Ententes," p. 13.
① 华尔兹对立足于单元进行研究的简化理论(还原理论)(Rcductionist Theory)提出了批评，认为应当从国际结构的层面构建体系理论(Systemic Theory)．体系理论主要考察两个方而：国际体系的结构和各单元的互动。相关重要图表可参见Kenneth N. Waltz, Theory of International Politics, Mass.: Addison Wesley,1979, pp.99-101.
① George F. Liska, Nations in Alliance: The Limits of Interdependence, Baltimore: Johns Hopkins Press, 1968, p.106.
② 对安全困境研究颇为深入的是罗伯特·杰维斯(Robert Jervis)，特别是他的论文"Cooperation Under the Security Dilemma," World Politics, Vol. 30, No. 2, January 1978, pp.167-214; 也可参见Charles L: Glaser, "The Security Dilemma Revisited", WorldPolitics, Vol. 50, No. 1, October 1997, pp. 171-201.专门研究联盟安全困境的成果目前还比较少见，多散见于一些论文中，如Glenn H. Snyder, "The Security Dilemma in Alliance Politics," World Politics, Vol. 34, No. 3, July 1984, pp. 461-495.
③ Waltz, Theory of International Politics, pp. 103-105.
④ George Liska, Resurrecting a Discipline: Enduring Scholarship for Evolving World Politics, Lanham: Lexington Books, 1999, p. 67.
⑤ Arnold Wolfers, ed., Discord and Collaboration. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1962, p. 28. 当然， 西方有些学者，如布赞(Barry Buzan)、费赖(Daniel Frei)、杰维斯则认为安全没有确切的定义，而是一个模糊的象征，参见Peter Mangold, National Security and International Relations, London: Rouledge, 1990, pp.2-3.
① David A. Baldwin, "Thinking about Threat," The Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 15, No. 1, 1971, p. 72.
② David A. Baldwin, "The Concept of Security," Review oflnternational Studies, Vol. 23, No. 1, 1997, pp. 13-17.
③ 可参见张曙光的两本著作：《美国对华战略：考虑与决策(1949-1972)》，上海：上海外语教育出版社2003年版，前言部分第6页；Mao'sMilitary Romanticism: China and the Korean War, 1950-1953, Lawrence,KS: University Press of Kansas, 1994, Chapter 1.
④ Ibid.
⑤ Ole R. Holsti, Unity and Disintegration in International Alliances: Comparative Studies, New York: John Wiley& Sons, 1973, p. 11; Dan Reiter, Crucible of Beliefs: Learning, Alliances, and Worm Politics, Ithaca and London:Cornell University Press, 1996, p. 2.
⑥ Stephen M. Walt, The Origins of Alliances, Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 1987, p. 25.
⑦ US Reaction to Soviet Destruction of CPR Nuclear Capability, August 18, 1969, Nixon Presidential Material Project (NPMP), National Archives II, College Park, MD, USA (1969-1973), Box 334.
① 综合制衡(Omnibalancing)一词首先是由大卫(Steven David)提出的。参见Steven David, Choosing Sides:Alignment and Realignment in the Third World, Baltimore: The Johns Hopkins University Press, 1991.
② 最后这一点成为建构主义学派研究安全和威胁问题的突破口。参见David Campbell, Writing Security: United States Foreign Policy and the Politics of ldentity, Minneapolis: University of Minnesota Press, 1992.
③ 对安全和威胁研究的最近成果包括Michael C. Williams, ed., Critical Security Studies: Concepts and Cases, Minneapolis: University of Minnesota Press, 1997; Richard Wyn Jones, Security, Strategy and Critical Theory, Boulder: Lynne Rienne Publishers, 1999; Ronnie D. Lipschutz, ed., On Security, New York: Columbia University Press, 1995.
④ See Waltz, Theory of lnternational Politics; Walt, The Origins of Alliances.
⑤ See J. Ann Ticker, "Re-Visioning Security", in Ken Booth and Steve Smith, eds., International Relations Today, Pennsylvania: The Pennsylvania State University Press, 1995.
⑥ G. R. Berridge, International Politics: States, Power and Conflict since 1945, New York: Prentice Hall, 1997, p.177.
① Holsti, Unity and Disintegration in International Alliances, pp. 1-2.
② Hans Morgenthau, "The National Interest of the United States", American Political Science Review, Vol. 66, No.4, 1952, P. 961.
③ See Hans J. Morgenthau and Kenneth W. Thompson, Politics Among Nations: The Struggle for Power and Peace, New Delhi: Kalyani Publishers, 1985, Chapter Three.
④ Mark R. Armstutz, International Conflict and Cooperation, Boston: McGraw- Hill, 1999, pp. 778-779.
⑤ Charles A. Beard, The Idea of National Interest: An Analytical Study in American Foreign Policy, Chicago: Quadrangle Books, 1966, pp. 32-36.
⑥ Donald Naechtelein, "The Concept of National Interests: A Time for New Approach," Orbis, Vol.23, No. 1, Spring 1979, p. 73-92.
⑦ Frderic S. Pearson and J. Martin Rochester, International Relations, 4th ed., New York: McGraw-Hill, 1998, pp.177-178.
① Alexander Wendt, Social Theory of International Politics, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1999, pp.235-236.
② Andrew M. Scott, The Dynamics of Interdependence, NC: Chapel Hill, 1982; Alen Tonelson, "What is the National Interest", Atlantic Vol.268, No. 1, July 1991, pp.35-52; Condoleezza Rice, "Promoting the National Interest", Foreign Affairs, Vol. 79, No. 1, January/February 2000, pp. 45-62.
③ [美]约翰·米尔斯海默著，王义桅、唐小松译：《大国政治的悲剧》，上海：上海人民出版社，2003年版，第64页。
④ [美]费丽莫著，袁正清译：《国际社会中的发展利益》，杭州：浙江人民出版社，2001年版，第2—3页；Wendt, Social Theory of International Politics, p. 115.
⑤ Wendt, Social Theory of International Politics, p. 234.
⑥ 方长平著：《发展利益的建构主义分析》，北京：当代世界出版社，2002年版，第2页。
① Robert L. Rothstein, Alliance and Small Powers, New York and London: Columbia University Press, 1968, p.1.
② Kevin Narizny, "The Political Economy of Alignment: Great Britain's Commitments to Europe, 1905-39," International Security, Vol. 27, No. 4, Spring 2003, pp. 217-219.
③ 意识形态的相关研究成果包括George Schwab, ed., Ideology and Foreign Policy, New York: Cyroo Press, 1978; Alan Cassels, Ideology and International Relations in the Modern World, London and New York: Routledge, 1986; George F. Kennan, Around the Cragged Hill: A Personal and Political Philosophy, New York: and London:W. W. Nonton, 1993; Henry Kissinger, Does America Need a Foreign Policy?: Toward A Diplomacy for the 21~(st) Century, New York: Simon & Schuster, 2001.
④ Abthomy Downs, An Economic Theory of Democracy, New York: Harper &Row, 1957, Introduction.
⑤ Michael Freeden, Ideology and Political Theory, Oxford: Clarendon Press. 1996, pp. 12-15.也有学者认为，划 分标准不同，意识形态的内涵也不一样。例如可以根据思想的内容和结构、功能(包括个人——社会功能和组织功能)和社会性等来解读意识形态的内涵。参见David M. Minar, "Ideology and Political Behavior,"Midwest Journal of Political Science, Vol. 5, No. 4, 1961, pp. 317-331.
① Charles W. Kegley Jr. and Gregory A. Raymond, When Trust Breaks Down: Alliance Norms and World Politics, Columbia: University of South Carolina Press, 1990, p. 56.
② 王晓德著：《美国文化与外交》，北京：世界知识出版社，2000年版，第18-20页。
③ [美]迈克尔·H·亨特著，褚律元译：《意识形态与美国外交政策》，北京：世界知识出版社，1999年版，第182页。
④ Robert Jervis and Jack Snyder, Dominoes and Bandwagons: Strategic Beliefs and Great Power Competition in the Eurasian Rimland, New York and Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1991, p. 103.
⑤ Holsti, Unity and Disintegration in International Alliances, p. 53.
① Randolph M. Siverson and Juliann Emmons, "Birds of a Feather: Democratic Political Systems and Alliance Choices in the 20th Century," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 35, No. 2, 1991, pp. 304-305.
② 这就是所谓的“亲和力理论”(Affinity Theories)，即相同的制度、文化传统和意识形态价值观会具有重要的吸引力，国家在选择盟友时会因此而带有某种程度的偏见。参见Ole R. Holsti, "Alliance and Coalition Diplomacy," in James N. Rosenau, Kenneth W. Thompson, and Gavin Boyd, eds., World Politics, New York: Free Press. 1976. p. 345.
③ 关于这一点，可参考哈斯的实证研究。Mark L Haas, "Ideology and Alliances: British and French External Balancing Decisions in the 1930s, Security Studies, Vol. 12, No: 4, 2003, pp. 34-79.
④ [英]马丁·怀特著，宋爱群译：《权力政治》，北京：世界知识出版社，2004年版，第80页。
⑤ 近些年来涉及文明或文化的研究成果较为丰富，国内外学者的研究成果包括Samuel P. Huntington, The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order, New York: Simon＆Schuster,1996; 王缉思主编：《文明与国际政治——中国学者评亨廷顿的文明冲突论》，上海：上海人民出版社，1995年版；王晓德著：《美国文化与外交》。
⑥ See Wendt, Social Theory of International Politics, Chapter 6.
① 这里土耳其可能是个特例，该国属于世俗的伊斯兰文化，与西方文化存在重要差异。这也是土耳其长期以来不为欧洲国家吸纳为欧盟成员的重要原因。
② 美国学者麦克尔·莫萨尔(Michael Mazarr)归纳了文化与国际关系之间的5种模式。参见Michael J. Mazarr, "Culture and International Relations: A Review Essay," The Washington Quarterly, Vol. 19, No. 2, Spring 1996, pp.177-195.
③ 《中国大百科全书》(哲学卷)，北京：中国大百科全书出版社1987年版，第924页；Akira Iriye, "Culture and International History", in Michael J. Hogan and Thomas G. Paterson, eds., Explaining the Histoty of American Foreign Relations, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1991, p. 215.
④ 王缉思主编：《文明与国际政治——中国学者评亨廷顿的文明冲突论》，第2-3页；Samuel P. Huntinglon,"The Clash of Civilization?" Foreign Affairs, Summer 1993, Vol. 72, No. 3, pp. 22-49.
⑤ See Sylvia K. Crosbie, A Tacit Alliance: Francc and Israel from Suez to the Six Day War, Princeton, New Jersey: Princeton University Press, 1974.
① Alexander Wendt, Social theory of international politics, p. 1; Alexander Wendt, "Anarchy is What Stales Make of It: The Social Construction of Power Politics", in James Der Derian, ed., International Theory: Critical lnvestigations, New York: New York University Press, 1995, pp. 129-177.
② Arthur A. Stein, Why Nations Cooperate: Circumstance and Choice in International Relations, Ithaca and London: Cornell University Press, 1990, pp. 166-168.
③ Charles W. Kegley Jr. and Gregory A., Raymond, When Trust Breaks Down: Alliance Norms and World Politics, p. 59.
④ Robert L. Rothstein, Alliance and Small Powers, pp.49—50; Michael N. Barnett, and Jack S. Levy, "Domestic Sources of Alliances and Alignments: the Case of Egypt, 1962-73," International Organization, Vol. 45, No. 3, Summer 1991, p. 371.
① Liska, Nations in Alliance, p. 30.
② Alastair Buchan, "Problems of an Alliance Policy," in Michael Howard, ed., The Theory and Practice of War, Bloomington: Indiana University Press, 1965, p. 295.
③ Charles W. Kegley Jr. and Eugene R. Wittkopf, World Politics: Trend and Transformation, 7th ed., Boston and New York: Bedford/St. Martin's, 1999, p. 465.
④ Berridge, International Politics, p. 177.
⑤ 关于这一时期的中美关系可参见Robert S. Ross, China, The United States and the Soviet Union: Tripolarity and Policy Making in the Cold War, Armonk and New York: An East Gate Book, 1993.
⑥ Yaacov Bar-Siman-Tov, "The United States and Israel since 1948: A 'Special Relationship'?" Diplomatic History, Vol. 22, No. 2, Spring 1998, p. 236.
① Arnold Wolfers, "Alliances," in David L Sills, ed., International Encyclopedia of Social Sciences, New York: Macmillan, 1968, p. 269.
② Rothstein, Alliance and Small Powers, p.48.
③ Robert Jervis, System Effects: Complexity in, Political and Social Life, Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1997, p. 6.
④ Arnold Wolfers, ed., Discord and Collaboration, p. 218.
⑤ See Luigi Albertini, The Origins of the War of 1914, London: Oxford University Press, 1952.
① 这是新现实主义的主要观点，参见waltz, theory of International Politics,p.88.
② [美]米尔斯海默著：《大国政治的悲剧》第65页。
③ Joshna S. Goldstein, International Relations, 2~(nd) ed., Happer Collins: Happer Collins College Publisher, 1996, p.85.
④ Thomas J. Christensen and Jack Snyder, "Chain Gangs and Passed Bucks: Predicting Alliance Patterns in Multipolarity," International Organization, Vol. 44, No. 2, Spring 1990, pp. 140-143.
⑤ Rothstein.Alliance and Small Powers, p.13.
① 这一时期的欧洲国际关系的研究成果可以参见两本书E. C. Helmreich, The Diplomacy of the Balkan Wars, Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1938; R. J. Crampton, The Hollow Détente, London: George Prior Publishers, 1979.
② Memo of Conversation between Kissinger and Zhou, July 10, 1971, NPMP, Box 1033.
③ Snyder, "The Security Dilemma in Alliance Politics," pp. 461-495.
④ Robert E. Osgood, Alliance and American Foreign Policy, Baltimore: Johns Hopkins Press, 1968, p. 19.
① Glenn H. Snyder, Alliance Politics, Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 1997, p. 12.
② Jervis, "Cooperation under the Security Dilemma," pp. 167-214.
③ 关于安全困境呈螺旋模式发展，可参见罗伯特·杰维斯著，秦亚青译：《国际政治中的知觉与错觉》，北京：世界知识出版社，2003年版，第三章“威慑理论、螺旋模式与对手意向”。
④ Memocon between the President Nixon and Prime Minster Wilson, January 27, 1970, NPMP, Box 1023/3.
① Ole R. Holsti, Unity and Disintegration in International Alliances, p. 25.
① 系统论述权力平衡(均势)的经典著作有: Max Beloff and Baron Beloff, The balance of power, Montreal: McGill University Press, 1967; Michael Sheehan, The Balance of Power: History and Theory, London: Routledge, 1996; Emerson M. S. Niou, The Balance of Power: Stability in International Systems, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1989; F H. Hinsley, Power and the Pursuit of Peace: Theory and Practice in the History of Relations between States, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1963.
② Hans J. Morgenthau, "alliance in Theory and Practice," in Arnold Wolfers cal.,Alliance Policy in the Cold War ,Baltimore, MD: The Johns Hopkins Press, 1959.
③ Stephen M. Walt, The Origins of the AIliances, Ithaca: Cornell University press, 1987, p. 1.
④ 参见Hans J. Morgenthau and Kenneth W. Thompson, Politics among Nations: The Struggle for Power and Peace, 6th ed., New Delhi: Kalyani Publishers, 1985, 第二章第四、五节。
① Randall L. Schweller, "Bandwagoning for Profit: Bring the Revisionist State Back in", International Security, Vol. 19, Summer 1994, pp.79-81.
② Dan Reiter, Crucible of Beliefs: Learning, Alliances, and World Politics, Ithaca and London: Cornell University Press, 1996. p. 59.
③ 李少军：《国际政治学概论》，上海：上海人民出版社，2002年版，第224页。
④ Reiter, Crucible of Beliefs, p. 11.
① Charles W. Kegley Jr. and Gregory A. Raymond, When Trust Breaks Down: Alliance Norms and World Politics, Columbia: University of South Carolina Press, 1990, p. 265.科尼比尔(John A. C. Conybeare)则把结盟看作一项证券投资(Portfolio), 并认为国家在选择结盟前通常会在回报率(Rate of Return )和风险(Risk)之间进行权衡。参见John A. C. Conybeare, "A Portfolio Diversification Model of Alliances: The Triple Alliance and Triple Entente, 1879-1914," The Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 36, No. 1, 1992, pp. 61-64.
② Glenn H. Snyder, "The Security Dilemma in Alliance Politics", World Politics, Vol.34, No.3, July 1984, p. 462.
① 关于这一点，弗里德曼也有一定的论述，参见Julian R. Friedman, Christopher Bladen, and Steven Rosen, Alliance in International Politics, Boston, Mass.: Allyn and Bacon, Inc., 1970, p. 18.
② Glenn H. Snyder, Alliance Politics, Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 1997. p. 158.
③ 进攻性现实主义代表人物米尔斯海默认为，由于国家安全的稀缺性，世界上所有的国家都对现状不满， 都是挑战现状的国家，所以国际实体只可能存追随和推卸责任之间选择其一。参见[美]约翰·米尔斯海默著，王义桅、唐小松译：《大国政治的悲剧》，上海：上海人民出版社，2003年版，第8章。
① Snyder, Alliance Politics, p. 51.
② Wall, The Origins of the Alliances, p. 175.
① John A. C. Conybeare, "The Portfolio Benefits of Free Riding in Military Alliances," International Studies Quarterly, Vol. 38. 1994, p. 405.
① Norman Podhoretz, "Israel and the United States: A Complex History," Commentary, Vol. 105, No. 5, May 1998, p. 48.
② Yaacov Bar-Siman-Tov, "The United States and Israel since 1948: A 'Special Relationship'?" Diplomatic History, No. 2, Spring 1998, p.233.
③ See Mohamed Al-Kiswani and Khawas Mohamed, The U.S. and Israel: .4 Very Special Relationship, London: Zed Press, 1984; Abraham Ben-Zvi, The United States and Israel: The Limits of the Special Relationship, New York: Columbia University Press, 1990; Bernard Reich, The United States and Israel: Influence in the Special Relationship, New York: Praeger, 1984; Claudia Wright, Spy, Steal, and Smuggle: Israel's Special Relationship with the United States, Belmont, Mass.: AAUG Press, 1986; Herbert Druks, The Uncertain Alliance: The U.S. and Israel from Kennedy to the Peace Process, Westport: Greenwood Press, 2001.
④ Warren Bass, Support Any Friend: Kennedy's Middle East and the Making of the US-lsrael Alliance, London: Oxford University Press, 2003; Grace Halsell, Prophecy and Politics: The Secret Alliance between Israel and the U.S. Christian Right, Chicago: Lawrence Hill Books, 1986; Camille Mansour, Beyond Alliance: Israel and U.S. Foreign Policy, New York: Columbia University Press, 1994; Yossi Melmann and Dan Raviv, Friends in Deed: Inside the U.S.-Israel Alliance, New York: Hyperion, 1994.
① See David Schoenaum, The United States and the State of Israel, New York and Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1993.
② Aaron S. Klieman and Adrian L. Klieman, eds., American Zionism: A Documentary History, New York and London: A Garland Series, 1991, pp. 2-4.
③ George W. Ball and Douglas B. Ball, The Passionate Attachment: America's Involvement with Israel 1947 to the Present, New York: W. W. Norton, 1992, p. 52.
④ Mitchell Geoffrey Bard, The Water's Edge and Beyond, New Brunswick: Transaction Publishers, 1991, p. 182.
⑤ Bat-Ami Zucker, U.S. Aid to Israel and Its Reflection in the New York Times and Washington Post: 1948-1973, Lewiston: The Edwin Mellen Press, 1991, p. 26.
⑥ Steven L. Spiegel, The Other Arab-Israeli Conflict, Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1986, p. 56.
⑦ Herbert Druks, The Uncertain Friendship: The U.S. and Israel from Roosevelt to Kennedy, pp. 153-173.
① Barry Rubin and Thomas A. Keaney, eds., US Allies in A Changing World, London: FRANK CASS, 2001, p.145.
② Bar-Siman-Tov, "The United States and Israel since 1948: A 'Special Relationship'?" p. 236.
③ See Sylvia K. Crosbie, A Tacit Alliance: France and Israel From Suez to The Six Day War, Princeton, New Jersey: Princeton University Press, 1974.
④ Cheryl Rubenberg, Israel and the American National Interest, Urbana: University of Illinois Press, 1986, p. 91.
⑤ John P. Miglietta, American Alliance Policy in the Middle East, 1945-1992: Iran, Israel and Saudi Arabia, Lanham, M.D.: Lexington Books, 2002, p. 133; Abraham Ben-Zvi, Decade of Transition: Eisenhower, Kennedy and the Origins of the American-Israeli Alliance, New York: Columbia University Press, 1998, p. 97.
⑥ John P. Miglietta, American Alliance Policy in the Middle East, 1945-1992, p. 134.
⑦ Stephen Green, Taking Sides: America's Relations with a Militant Israel, New York: William Morrow, 1984, p.211.
① 有些学者也称阿联，全称阿拉伯联合共和国，1958年埃及与叙利亚合并而成。1961年9月叙利亚脱离后，埃及仍以“阿联”为国名，直至1971年9月才改名为阿拉伯埃及共和国。为行文统一，本文一律使用“埃及”一词。
② Andrew Cockburn and Leslie Cockburn, Dangerous Liaison: The Inside Story of the US-Israeli Covert Relationship, New York: HarperCollins Publishers, 1991, p. 190.
③ Judith A. Klinghoffer, Vietnam, Jews and the Middle East: Unintended Consequences, New York: St. Martin's Press, 1999, p. 10.
④ "Toast to the President and Prime Minster Eshkol at of Israel at a Dinner at the LBJ Ranch, January 7, 1968," Public Papers of the Presidents of the United States, Lyndon B. Johnson, 1968-69, Book I, Washington D.C.: United States GPO, 1970, p. 19.
⑤ Naseer H. Aruri, The Obstruction of Peace: The United States, Israel, and the Palestinians, Monroe: Common Congress Press, 1995, pp. 86-87. http.//www.fas.org//asmp.html
⑥ Bar-Siman-Tov, "The United States and Israel since 1948:A 'Special Relationship'?" p. 246.
⑦ Warren I. Cohen, "Balancing American Interests in the Middle East: Lyndon Baines Johnson vs. Gamal Abdul Nasser," in Warren I. Cohen and Nancy Bernkopf Tucker, eds.,Lyndon Johnson Confronts the World: American Foreign Policy, 1963-1968, New York: Cambridge University Press, 1994, p. 279.
① Memoramdum, Talk with Israeli Defense Minister Shimon Peres, June 1964, Foreign Relations of the United States (FRUS) 1964-1968, Vol. ⅩⅧ, Arab-Israeli Dispute 1964-67, No. 69.
② Aruri, The Obstruction of Peace, pp. 86-87.
③ Mansour, Beyond Alliance: Israel in U.S. Foreign Policy, p. 190.
④ Bard, The Water's Edge and Beyond, p. 195.
⑤ Abraham Ben-Zvi, "Influence and Arms: John F. Kennedy, Lvndon B. Johnson and the Politics of Arms Sales to Israel, 1962-1966," lsraeI Affairs, Vol, 10, No. 1-2, 2004, p. 35.
① Memorandum of Conversation between US Secretary of States and Israeli Ambassador Avraham Harman, January 3, 1964, FRUS 1964-1968, No. 3.
② Memoramdun from the Joint Chiefs of Staffto Secretary of Defense McNamara on Military Assistance for Israel, March 12, 1964, FRUS, 1964-1968, No. 28.
③ Ibid.
④ Memorandum from the President's Deputy Special Counsel Feldman to President Johnson on Tanks for Israel, March 14, 1964, FRUS 1964-1968, No. 29.
⑤ Memorandum for the Standing Group on Response to NSAM 290, (Undated), FRUS 1964-1968, No.47.
⑥ Memorandum for the Record on Israeli Requests for U. S. Tanks, April 30, 1964, FRUS 1964-1968, No. 49.
① Memorandum from President Johnson to His Deputy Special Counsel Feldman, May 15, 1964, FRUS 1964-1968, No. 55.
② Memorandum of Conversation between Levi Eshkol and Myer Feldman, May 17, 1964, FRUS 1964-1968, No. 58.
③ Memorandum for Record among Johnson, Secretary Rusk and Secretary of Defense McNamara, May 16, 1964, FRUS 1964-1968, No. 57.
④ Memorandum of conversation between Levi Eshkol and Harriman, June 2, 1964, FRUS 1964-1968, No. 67.
⑤ Memorandum for Record between Shimon Peres and Komer, (Undated), FRUS 1964-1968, No. 69.
⑥ Memorandum from the President's Deputy Special Counsel Feldman to President, October 19, 1964, FRUS 1964-1968, No. 99.
⑦ Memorandum from Secretary of State Rusk to President Johnson, October 10, 1964, FRUS 1964-1968, No.99.
① 详见下文“经济援助”部分。
② Saudia Touval, The Peace Brokers, New Jersey: Princeton University Press, 1982, p. 135.
③ Stephen Green, Living by the Sword, Brattleboro, Vt.: Amana Books, 1988, p. 10.
④ Telegram from the Embassy in Israel to the Department of State, March 11, 1965, FRUS 1964-1968, No. 185.
① Druks, The Uncertain Alliance, p. 45.
② William B. Quandt, Decade of Decision—Araerican Policy toward the Arab-Israeli Conflict, California: University of California Press, 1977, p. 66.
③ Ibid., p. 67.
④ Memorandum of Conversation between President Johnson and Prime Minister Eshkol, June 1, 1964, FRUS 1964-1968, No. 65.
① Telegram from the Embassy in Israel to the Department of State, March 11, 1965, FRUS 1964-1968, No.185.
② Memorandum of Conversation between Secretary of State and Ephraim Evron, August 21, 1965, FRUS 1964-1968, No.260.
③ Telegram from the Department of State to the Embassy in Israel, December 22, 1966, FRUS 1964-1968, No.374.
④ Memorandum for Record: Israeli Arms Needs, January 10, 1964, FRUS 1964-1968, No.7.
⑤ Airgram from the Department of State to the Embassy in Israel, June 17, 1966, FRUS 1964-1968, No.301.
⑥ Quandt, Decade of Decision, p. 50.
① Benjamin Beit-Hallahmi, The Israeli Connection, New York: Pantheon Books, 1987, p. 198.
② Memorandum of Conversation between Johnson and Eshkol, June 1, 1964, FRUS 1964-1968, No. 65.
③ Miglietta, American Alliance Policy in the Middle East, 1945-1992, p. 176.
④ Aruri, The Obstruction of Peace. pp. 86-87.
① Ibid., pp. 86-87.
② Memorandum from Robert W. Komer of the National Security Council Staff to President Johnson, May 28, 1964, FRUS 1964-1968, No.63.
③ Zucker, U.S. Aid to Israel and Its Reflection in the New York Times and Washington Post, p. 30.
④ Memorandum of Conversation between Johnson and Eshkol, June 1, 1964, FRUS 1964-1968, No.65.
⑤ Memorandum from Robert W. Komer of the National Security Council Staff to the President Deputy Special Counsel Feldman, March 23, 1964, FRUS 1964-1968, No. 33.
⑥ Aruri, The Obstruction of Peace, pp. 86-87.
① Memorandum from Secretary of State Rusk to President Johnson, October 10, 1964, FRUS 1964-1968, No. 99.
② Memorandum from the President's Deputy Special Assistant for National Security Affairs Komer to President in Texas, December 28, 1965, FRUS 1964-1968, No. 259.
③ Memorandum from the President's Special Assistant Rostow to President Johnson, April 29, 1966, FRUS 1964-1968, No. 285.
④ See Robert J. Lieber, "U.S.-Israeli Relations Since 1948", Middle East Review of International Affairs, Vol. 2, No. 3, September 1998.
⑤ Memorandum from the Representative to the United Nations Goldberg to President Johnson, May 1, 1967, FRUS 1964-1968, No. 414.
⑥ Stephen M. Walt, The Origins of Alliances, Ithaca: Cornwell University Press, 1987, p. 46.
① James Lee Ray, The Future of American-Israeli Relations, Kentucky: The University Press of Kentucky Press, 1985, p. 1; Adam Garfinkle, "US-Israeli Relations after the Cold War," Orbis, Vol. 40, No.4, Fall 1996, p. 1.
② 又译为“果尔达·梅厄”。
③ Druks, The Uncertain Alliance, pp. 6-7.
④ Letter from President Johnson to Prime Minister Eshkol, January 2, 1964, FRUS 1964-1968, No. 1.
⑤ Telegram from the Department of State to the Embassy in Israel, February 20, 1964, FRUS 1964-1968, No. 14.
⑥ Memorandum of Conversation between President Johnson and Prime Minister Eshkol, June 1, 1964, FRUS 1964-1968, No. 65.
⑦ Ibid.
⑧ Memorandum from Robert W. Komer of the National Security Council Staff to the President's Deputy Special Counsel, March 23, 1964, FRUS 1964-196,9, No. 33.
⑨ Memorandum from President Johnson to His Deputy Special Counsel Feldman, May 15, 1964, FRUS 1964-1968, No. 55.
⑩ Telegram from the Embassy in Israel to the Department of State, March 11, 1965, FRUS 1964-1968, No.185.
① Druks, The Uncertain Alliance, p. 38.
② Telegram from the Department of State to the Embassy in Israel, January 25, 1964, FRUS 1964-1968, No. 11.
③ Memorandum of Conversation between King Hussein and Present Johnson, April 14, 1964, FRUS 1964-1968,No. 39.
④ Telegram from the Departmeht of State to the Embassy in Israel, March 14, 1964, FRUS 1964-1968, No. 30.
⑤ Circular Telegram from the Department of State to Certain Posts, November 17, 1964, FRUS 1964-1968, No.106.
⑥ Circular Telegram from the Department of State to Certain Posts on U. S. Contacts with Palestine Liberation Organization, March 30, 1965, FRUS 1964-1968, No. 199.
⑦ Special Report Prepared by the Central lntelligence Agency, December 3, 1965, FRUS 1964-1968, No. 255.
① Bar-Siman-Tov, "The United States and Israel since 1948: A 'Special Relationship'?" p. 240.
② Quandt, Decade of Decision, p. 53; Druks, The Uncertain Alliance, p. 34.
③ Druids, The Uncertain Alliance, p. 35.
④ Cohen, "Balancing American Interests in the Middle East," p. 301.
⑤ Druks, The Uncertain Alliance, pp. 51-52.
⑥ Lorenza Rossi, Who Shall Guard the Guardian Themselves? New York: Peter Lang Publishing Group, 1996, p.81.
① "Toast of the President and President Zalman Shazar of Israel, August 2, 1966," in Public Papers of the Presidents of the United States. Lyndon B. Johnson, p. 796.
② Miglietta, American Alliance Policy in the Middle East, 1945-1992, pp. 118-119.
③ Summary Prepared in the Department of State, (Undated), FRUS 1964-1968, No. 5.
④ Action Memorandum from the Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern and South Asian Affairs Talbot to Secretary Rusk, April 20, 1964, FRUS 1964-1968, No. 45.
① Ibid.
② Rossi, Who Shall Guard the Guardian Themselves, p. 83.
③ Memorandum of Conversation between President Johnson and UAR Ambassador Mustafa Kamel, May 25,1964, FRUS 1964-1968, No. 60.
④ Robert E. Osgood, Alliance and American Foreign Policy, Baltimore and London: The Johns Hopkins Press, 1968, p. 83.
⑤ Memorandum from Secretary of State Rusk to President Johnson, February 1, 1965, FRUS 1964-1968, No. 129.
⑥ National Intelligence Estimate, The Outlook for the United Arab Republic, May 19, 1966, FRUS 1964-1968, No.290.
① Memorandum from Robert W. Komer to the National Security Council Staff to President Johnson, January 8, 1964, FRUS 1964-1968, No. 72. 另可参见Warren I. Cohen, "Balancing American Interests in the Middle East: Lyndon Baines Johnson vs. Gamal Abdul Nasser," p. 297.
② Telegram from the Department of State to the Consulate in Dhahran, November 20, 1964, FRUS 1964-1968, No.107.
③ Martin Gilbert, Israel:A History, London and New York: Doubleday, 1998, pp. 365-366.
④ Zucker, U.S. Aid to Israel and Its Reflection in the New York Times and the Washington Post, p. 27.
① Arnold Blumberg, The History of Israel, Westport: Greenwood Press, 1998, p. 104.
② Telegram from the Department of State to the Embassy in the United Arab Republic, June 27, 1966, FRUS 1964-1968, No. 306.
③ Memorandum of Conversation between the Secretary of State and Ambassador of Avraham Harman, December 29, 1965, FRUS 1964-1968, No. 260.
④ Memorandum of Conversation between President Johnson and Prime Minister Eshkol, June 1, 1964, FRUS 1964-1968, No. 65.
⑤ Gregory Gause Ⅲ, Saudi-Yemeni Relations: Domestic Structures and Foreign Influence, New York: Columbia University Press, 1990, p. 59.
⑥ David Ben-Gurion, lsrael:A Personal History, New York: Herzl Press, 1972, p. 758.
⑦ Memorandum from the Embassy in the United Kingdom to the Department of State, March 25, 1964, FRUS 1964-1968, No. 34.
⑧ Moshe Gut, "Britain and Lsrael before and after the Six Day War, June 1967: from Support to Hostility," Conternporary British History, Vol 18, No. 1, Spring 2004, pp. 54-56; Podhoretz, "Israel and the United States," pp. 28-43.
① Michael Brecher, "The Middle East Subordinate System and Its Impact on Israel's Foreign Policy," International Studies Quarterly, Vol. 13, No. 2, 1969, p. 137.
② Gilbert, Israel:A History, p. 365.
③ Letter from Prime Minister Eshkol to President Johnson, March 12, 1965, FRUS 1964-1968, No. 189.
④ Green. Living by Sword, p. 10.
⑤ Blumberg, The History of Israel, p. 105.
① 其中不包括吉布提、索马里和巴勒斯坦。
② David S. Painter, Oil and the American Century: The Political Economy of U.S. Foreign Oil Policy, 1941-1954,Baltimore: Johns Hopkins Press, 1986, pp. 1-4.
③ Secretary of Defense, "A Report to the National Security Council, NSC-47," May 17, 1949, in Klinman and Klieman, eds., American Zionism, pp. 2-4.
④ Letter from the Assistant Secretary of State fro Near Eastern and South Asian Affairs Hare to the Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs ttoopes, August 22, 1966, FRUS 1964-1968, No. 316.
① Clyde R. Mark, Israel: U.S. Foreign Assistance, CRS Issue Brief, Washington D.C: Library of Congress, January 5, 1993, pp. 6-7; Mansour, Beyond Alliance, p. 190.
② Julian R. Friedman, Christopher Bladen and Steven Rosen, eds., Alliance in International Politics, Boston,. Mass.: Allyn and Bacon, Inc., 1970, p. 77.
③ Edward Bernard Glick, The Triangular Connection: America, Israel, and American Jews, London: George Allen & Unwin, 1982, p. 106.
④ Zucker, U.S. Aid to Israel and Its Reflection in the New York Times and the Washington Post, 1948-1973, p. 27.
⑤ Henry Jackson's Statement, Congressional Record, 91~(st) Congress. 2~(nd) Session, December 1970, p. 14867.
⑥ Senator Clark's Statement, Congressional Record, p. 11541.
① Zucker, U.S. Aid to Israel and Its Reflection in the New York Times and the Washington Post, 1948-1973, p. 28.
② Rubenberg, Israel and the American National Interest, p. 15.
③ Congressman Woff's Statement, Congressional Record, May 2, 1968, p. 11424.
④ Editorial, "Israel's Tenth," New York Times, April 24, 1958.
⑤ Zucker, U.S. Aid to Israel and Its Reflection in the New York Times and the Washington Post, 1948-1973. p. 28.
⑥ Alexander Wendt, Social Theory of International Politics, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1999, p. 31;pp. 42-43.
⑦ J. Kraft, "The Prophet Fulbright," Washington Post, August 23, 1970.
① Zucker, U.S. Aid to Israel and Its Reflection in the New York Times and the Washington Post, 1948-1973, p. 29.
② "US Presidents on Israel." http://www, us-israel.org//jsource/AJS -Istael//presquote.html.
③ "Toast of the President and Prime Ministet Eshkol at a Dinner at the LBJ Ranch, January 7, 1968," in Public Papers of the Presidents of the United States, Lyndon B. Johnson, 1968-69, p. 19.
④ C.L. Sulzberger. "The Roots of Hell," New York Times, June 9, 1963.
① Charles W. Yost, The Conduct and Misconduct of Foreign Affairs, New York: Random House, 1972, p. 41.
② George F. Liska, Nations in Alliance: The Limits of Interdependence, Baltimore: Johns Hopkins Press, 1968, pp.20-21.
③ Podhoretz, "Israel and the United States," p. 48.
④ Memorandum from Robert W. Komer of the National Security Council Staff to the President's Special Council Feldman, March 23, 1964, FRUS 1964-1968, No. 33.
⑤ William J. Lanouthe, "The Many Faces of the Jewish Lobby in America," National Journal, Vol. 19, May 13,1978, p. 748.
⑥ Bar-Siman-Tov, "The United States and Israel since 1948: A 'Special Relationship'?" p. 265.
⑦ Warren I. Cohen, "Balancing American Interests in the Middle East: Lyndon Baines Johnson vs. Gamal Abdul Nasser," p. 302.
⑧ Melman and Raviv, Friends in Deed, pp. 132-133.
⑨ Edward Tivnan, The Lobby, New York: Simon and Schuster. 1987, p. 66.
① Gerald L. Sorokin, "Alliance Formation and General Deterrence: A Game-Theoretic Model andthe Case of Israel," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 38, No. 2, June 1994, p. 319.
② Telegram from the Embassy in Israel to the Department of State, April 7, 1964, FRUS 1964-1968, No. 37.
③ 在这一点上，联盟与准联盟具有相似之处。关于联盟的情况可参见Friedman, Bladen and Rosen, eds., Alliance in International Politics, p.99.
① Memorandum from the President's Deputy Special Assistant for National Security Affairs Komer to President Johnson, February 8, 1966, FRUS 1964-1968, No. 267.
② Klinghoffer, Vietnam, Jews and the Middle East, p. 66.另可参见Warren I. Cohen, "Balancing American Interests in the Middle East: Lyndon Baines Johnson vs. Gamal Abdul Nasser," p. 295.
③ Garfinkle, "US-Israeli Relations after the Cold War," p. 1.
④ Podhoretz, "Israel and the United States: A Compoex History," p. 48.
⑤ Hans J. Morgenthau, "Alliances in Theory and Practice", in Arnold Wolfers, ed.,Alliance Policy in the Cold War, Baltimore, MD: The Johns Hopkins Press, 1959, p. 185.
⑥ Zucker, U.S. Aid to Israel and Its Reflection in the New York Times and the Washington Post, 1948-1973, p. 26.
⑦ Cohen, "Balancing American Interests in the Middle East," p. 306.
① Telegram from the Department of State to the Embassy in Israel, November 25, 1964, FRUS 1964-1968, No. 109.
② Memorandum from the Embassy in Israel to the Department of State, September: 14, 1966, FRUS 1964-1968,No. 322.
③ Memorandum of Conversation between President Johnson and Prime Minister Eshkol, June 1, 1964, FRUS 1964-1968, No. 65.
④ Telegram from the Embassy in Israel to the Department of State, February 28, 1965, FRUS 1964-1968, No. 168.
⑤ National Intelligence Estimate, The Arab-Israeli Problem, March 10, 1965, FRUS 1964-1968, No. 187.
① Circular Telegram from the Department of State to Certain Posts, November 17, 1964, FRUS 1964-1968, No. 106.
② Memorandum from Secretary of State Rusk to President Johnson, January 16, 1964, FRUS 1964-1968, No. 9.
③ Memorandum from the Joint Chiefs of Staff to Secretary of Defense McNamara, May 6, 1965, FRUS 1964-1968,No. 211.
④ Letter from the Assistant Secretary of State of Near Eastern and South Asian Affairs Hare to the Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs Hopes, August 22, 1966, FRUS 1964-1968, No. 316.
⑤ Telegram from the Embassy in Israel to the Department of State, February 28, 1965, FRUS 1964-1968, No. 165.
⑥ Circular Telegram from the Department of State to the Embassy in Israel, August 22, 1965, FRUS 1964-1968,No. 317.
⑦ Telegram from the Department of State to the Embassy in Israel, March 1, 1965, FRUS 1964-1968, No. 169.
① Liska, Nations in Alliance, p. 65, p. 69.
② Telegram from the Embassy in Israel to the Department of State, April 7, 1964, FRUS 1964-1968, No. 37.
③ Memorandum from the President's Special Assistant for National Security Affairs Bundy to President Johnson, March 8, 1964, FRUS 1964-1968, No. 27.
④ Telegram from the Embassy in Lebanon to the Department of State, April 20, 1967, FRUS 1964-1968, No. 409.
⑤ Memorandum from the Secretary of State Rusk to President Johnson on Preventing Nuclear Proliferation in the Near East, May 10, 1965, FRUS 1964-1968, No. 214.
⑥ Robert O. Keohane, Alliances, Threats and the Uses of Neorealism, Ithaca: Cornell University Press.1987, p. 174.
① Friedman, Bladen and Rosen, eds., Alliance in International Politics, p. 12.
② Noam Chomsky, The Fateful Triangle: The United States, Israel and the Palestinians, Boston: South End Press, 1983, pp. 98-99.
③ Glenn H. Snyder, "The Security Dilemma in Alliance Politics," World Politics, Vol.34, No.3, July 1984, P. 461.
④ Action Memorandum from the Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern and South Asian Affairs Talbot to Secretary of State Rusk, April 20, 1964, FRUS 1964.1968, No. 45.
⑤ Memorandum from President Johnson to His Deputy Special Counsel Feldman, May 15, 1964, FRUS 1964-1968, No. 55.
⑥ Podhoretz, "Israel and the United States," p. 49.
① Letter from President Johnson to President Nasser, February 27, 1964, FRUS 1964-1968, No. 20.
② Walt, The Origins of Alliances, p. 246.
③ Telegram from the Department of State to the Embassy in Israel, November 15, 1966, FRUS 1964-1968,No. 335.
④ Telegram from the Department of State to the Embassy in Jordan, November 24, 1966, FRUS 1964-1968,No. 347.
⑤ Telegram from the Department of State to the Embassy in the United Arab Republic, November 25, 1966, FRUS 1964-1968, No. 348.
① 索罗金也认为埃及低估了美国卷入1967年阿以冲突的可能性，参见Sorokin, "Alliance Formation and General Deterrence,"p. 322.
① Nixon to Kissinger, February 1, 1969, Box 341, Nixon Presidential Material Project (NPMP), National Archives Ⅱ, College Park, MD, USA (1969-1973).
② William Buur ed., Kissinger Transcripts: The Top Secret Talks with Beijing and Moscow, New York: The New Press, 1998, pp. 208-210; 陶文钊、杜瑞清、王旭主编：《中美关系与东亚国际格局》，北京：中国社会科学出版社，2003年版，第430页。
③ See Alexander Wendt, Social Theory of International Politics, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1999, Chapter 6.
④ See John W. Garver, China's Decision for Rapprocheraent with the United States, 1968-1971, Colorado: West View Press, 1982; Robert S. Litwak, Détente and Nixon Doctrine: American Foreign Policy and the Pursuit of Stability, New York: Cambridge University Press, 1984; Robert G. Sutter, China Watch: Toward Sino-American Reconciliation, Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1978; Jaw-ling Joanne Chang, United States-China Normalization: An Evaluation of Foreign Policy Decision Making, Colorado: Graduate School of International Studies University of Denver, 1986;张曙光著：《美国对华战略考虑与决策(1949-1972)》，上海：上海外语教育出版社2003年版；胡礼忠等著：《从望厦条约到克林顿访华——中美关系：1884-1996》，福州：福建人民出版社1996年版；资中筠主编：《战后美国外交史——从杜鲁门到里根》(下册)，北京：世界知识出版社1994年版；宫力著：《跨越鸿沟——1969-1979年中美关系的演变》，郑州：河南人民出版社1992年版；陶文钊主编：《中美关系史，1949-1972》，上海：上海人民出版社，2000年版。
⑤ see Gordon Chang, Friends and Enemies: The United States, Chinu, and the Soviet Union, 1948-1972, Stanford,CA: Stanford University Press, 1990;Harvey W. Nelsen, Power and Insecurity: Beijing, Moscow, and Washigton, 1949-1988, Boulder: Lynne Rienner Publishers, 1989; Ilpyong Kim, The Strategic Triangle: China, the United States and the Soviet Union, New York: Paragon House, 1987; Raymond Garthoff, Détente and Confrontation: American-Soviet Relations from Nixon to Reagan, Washington D. C.: Brookings Institution, 1985; Elizabeth Wishnick, "In the Region and in the Center; Soviet Reactions to the Border Rift", Cold War Internatioal History Project Bulletin, No. 6/7, Winter 1995/1996, pp. 194-201; John Spanier and Steven W. Hook, American Foreign Policy Since World War Л, Washington D. C.: Congressional Quarterly Inc., 1995, pp. 150-170.
⑥ 在前期研究成果中，有一篇文章认为1972年中期到1973年早期中美出现过心照不宣的联盟关系(Tacit Alliance)，参见Evelyn Goh, "Nixon, Kissinger, and the 'Soviet Card' in the U.S. Opening to China, 1970-19745," Diplomatic History, Vol. 29, No. 3, June 2005, pp. 485-499.
① Memorandum of Conversation between Kissinger and Ye Jianying, July 11, 1971, Box 1033, NPMP.
② 萧冬连著：《五十年国事纪要》(外交卷)，长沙：湖南人民出版社，1999年版，第317-318页。
③ “尼克松主义”的主要内容是：以伙伴关系为核心，以实力为基础，以现实威慑为后盾，以谈判为手段， 在“五大力量”、“三角关系”中推行“均势外交”。参见《建国以来毛泽东文稿》(第13册)，北京：中央文献出版社，1998年版，第262页。
① Lawrence Freedman, U.S. Intelligence and the Soviet Strategic Threat, 2~(nd) ed., Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1986, pp. 129-144.
② Robert S. Ross, Negotiating Cooperation: The United States and China, 1969-1989, California: Stanford University Press, 1995, p. 20.
③ HAK Administrative and Staff Files: U. S. China Policy 1969-1972, Undated, Box 13, NPMP.
④ Document from Chairman, EA/IG-Marshall Green to Chairman, NSC Review Group, November 12, 1969, Box 2, NPMP.
⑤ Air gram from Amembassy Taipei to the Department of State, January 20, 1969, Box 341, NPMP. Conference on American Foreign Policy in the 1970's, December 31, 1969, Box 1, NPMP.
① 李捷：“从解冻到建交：中国政治变动与中美关系”，载《党的文献》，2002年第5期，第69页。相关内容也可参见《聂荣臻年谱》，北京：人民出版社，1999年版。
② Nixon to Kissinger, February 1, 1969, Box 341, NPMP.
③ Memorandum from Paul Findley to William P. Rogers, January 30, 1969, Box 1032/4, NPMP.
④ Ibid.
⑤ Ibid.
⑥ 宫力著：《毛泽东外交风云录》，北京：中央民族大学出版社，2004年版，第511页。
① Hughes to Rogers, June 13, 1969, Box 1, NPMP.
② State Department cable to Embassy Moscow, August 2, 1969, Box700, NPMP.
③ “苏军总参谋部侦查总局关于国际形势调查给苏共中央的报告”，1969年7月19日，参见沈志华总主编，叶书宗主编：《苏联历史档案选编》，第31卷，北京：社会科学文献出版社．2002年版，第395页。
④ US Reaction to Soviet Destruction of CPR Nuclear Capability, August 18, 1969, Box 334, NPMP.
⑤ Ibid.
⑥ Letter from Allen S. Whiting to Dr. Kissinger, August 16, 1969, Box 839, NPMP.
⑦ Memorandum from Helmut Sonnenfeldt and John H. Holdridge to Kissinger, September 12, 1969, Box 710, NPMP．
① 《建国以来毛泽东文稿》(第13册)，第66页。
② Letter from Allen S. Whiting to Dr. Kissinger, August 16, 1969, Box 839, NPMP.
③ Memorandum by Ambassador Walter Stoessel, September 9, 1969, Box 1032/4, NPMP.
④ Memorandum to members of NSC staff from Robert E. Osgood, July 7, 1969, Box 1, NPMP.
⑤ Letter from Congressman H. Allen Smith to John II. Holdridge, March 9, 1970, Box 138, NPMP.
⑥ Memorandum of Conversation, President Nixon, Ellsworth Bunker etc, July 29, 1969, Box 1026, NPMP..
⑦ Memorandum of Conversation between President Georges Pompidou and Kissinger, August 4, 1969, Box 1023, NPMP.
⑧ Secretary of State William P. Rogers' Speech before the National Press Club, Canberra, Australia, August 8, 1969, Box 334, NPMP.
① Ibid.
② Henry A. Kissinger to Nixon, February 11, 1969, Box 700, NPMP.
③ Ibid.
④ Henry A. Kissinger to Nixon. February 12, 1969, Box 700, NPMP.
⑤ 廖和叔事件是指1969年2月初中国驻荷兰临时代办廖和叔叛逃、并由美国中情局送往美国的事件。可参见熊向晖：“我的情报与外交生涯，”《中共党史资料》第42辑，北京：中共党史出版社，1992年版。
⑥ Thomas L. Hughes to Rogers, February 18, 1969, Box 700, NPMP.
⑦ Document from Marshall Green to the Under Secretary, October 6, 1969, POL. Chicom-US, Box 710, NPMP.
① Document from Ray S. Clilne to Rogers, November 21, 1969, POL. Chicom-US, Box 700, NPMP.
② Central Intelligence Agency, FOIA Release to National Security, Intelligence Memorandum, April 11, 1970,Box 710, NPMP.
③ Memorandum of conversation by President Nixon and General De Gaulle, March 1, 1969, Box 1023, NPMP.
④ Ibid.
⑤ Memorandum of Conversation, President Nixon and Ellsworth Bunker etc, July 29, 1969, Box 1026, NPMP.
⑥ Memorandum for the president from Henry A. Kissinger, June 13, 1969, Box 822, NPMP.
⑦ Memorandum of Conversation between President Georges Pompidou and Kissinger, August 4, 1969, Box 1023, NPMP.
⑧ Memorandum of Conversation between president Nixon and Ceausescu, August 2, 1969, Box 1023, NPMP.
① Ibid.
② Ibid.
③ Memorandum by Harold Saunders, National Security Council Staff of Conversation with Ambassador Agha Hilaly, August 28, 1969, Box 1032, NPMP.
④ Memorandum from Kissinger to Nixon, December 23, 1969, Box 1031, NPMP.
⑤ Memorandum by Ambassador Walter sloessel, September 9, 1969, POL. Chicom-US, Box 1032,NPMP.这一点在中文文献中并没有明显的说明。
⑥ Memorandum from Henry A. Kissinger to the President Nixon, December 10, 1969, Box 700, NPMP.
① 李丹慧主编：《国际冷战史研究》(第1集)，上海：华东师范大学国际冷战史研究中心，2004年版，第114—115页。
② Sadako Ogata, Normalization with China: A Comparative Study of U.S. and Japanese Processes, Berkley: University of California, 1988, p. 16.
③ Warsaw Embassy Airgram A-25 IV to Secretary of State, January 24, 1970, RG59, Subject-Numeric Files 70-73, Box 700, NPMP.
④ Ibid.
⑤ Memorandum from Kissinger to the President, January 21, 1970, Box 334, NPMP.
⑥ Memorandum from Holdridge to Kissinger, February 10, 1970, Box 70, NPMP.
⑦ Ibid.
⑧ Kissinger's Talking points: President's Foreign Policy, 1970 National Review, HAK 13/5, Box 1031, NPMP.
① 张曙光著：《美国对华战略：考虑与决策(1949-1972)》，前言。
② 5月20日，毛泽东在声明中将美国在印度支那的军事行动称作是“尼克松的法西斯暴行”，并认为“美国的法西斯统治必然失败。”参见《建国以来毛泽东文稿》(第13册)，第96-97页。该声明也表明中国当时在对苏缓和问题上看法并不一致。国防部长林彪藉口美国攻打柬埔寨，抨击周恩来与美国试探修好的政策。参见[美]陶涵著，林添贵译：《蒋经国传》，北京：新华出版社，2002年版，第325页。
③ Memorandum from Green to Rogers, May 18, 1970, RG 59, SN 70-73, Box 6/3, NPMP.
④ Airgram from Hong Kong Consulate to Rogers, July 21, 1970, RG 59, SN 70-73, Box 1032, NPMP.
⑤ Marshall Green to Kissinger, October 20, 1970, CO 34-2, Box 18, NPMP.
⑥ Memorandum from Kissinger to President Nixon, May 19, 1970, Box 1032, NPMP.
⑦ Memocon between President Nixon and President Yahya, October 25, 1970, Box 1032, NPMP.
① Memcon between Henry A. Kissinger and Ceausescu, October 10, 1970, Box 1032/4, NPME.
② From Kissinger to Nixon, December 10, 1970, Box 1031, NPMP.
③ Secretary of State William P. Rogers' Speech before the National Press Club, Canberra, Australia, August 8, 1969, Box 334, NPMP.
④ Document from Marshall Green to the Under Secretary, October 6, 1969, POL. Chicom-US, Box 710, NPMP.
⑤ Memorandum from Henry Kissinger to the President Nixon, December 11, 1969, Box 700, NPMP.
⑥ 胡涵钧著：《当今中美贸易：1972—2001》，上海：复旦大学出版社，2002年版，第91页。
⑦ President's Personal Files, February 3, 1971, Box 166, NPMP.
⑧ Secretary of State William P. Rogers' Speech before the National Press Club, Canberra, Australia, August 8, 1969, Box 334, NPMP.
⑨ Memocon by Nixon and Kissinger etc, July 19, 1971, Box 1036, NPMP.
① 《建国以来毛泽东文稿》(第13册)，第166页。
② 陶文钊、杜瑞清、王旭主编：《中美关系与东亚国际格局》，第426页。
③ 安建设编著：《周恩来的最后岁月1966—1976》，北京：中央文献出版社，2002年版，第313页。
④ Message from Zhou to Nixon, May 29, 1971, Box 1031, NPMP.
⑤ Memocon by Henry Grunwald, Hugh Sidey and Jerry Schecter, August 13, 1971, Box 1026/23, NPMP.
⑥ Scope Paper, Chinese Objective, July 1971, Box 1039.2/1, NPMP.
① Memorandum from Winston Lord to Kissinger, May 12, 1971, Box 1032/4, NPMP.
② Memorandum from Kissinger to Nixon, January 12, 1971, Box 1033, NPMP.
③ 中华人民共和国外交部，中共中央文献研究室：《周恩来外交文选》，北京：中央文献出版社，1990年版，第474页。
④ Ray Cline to Acting Secretary Irwin, April 14. 1071. Box 1031, NPMP.
⑤ Statement by Nixon on Travel and Trade with PRC, April 14, 1971, Box1031, NPMP.
⑥ HAK Administrative and Staff Files: Who Invited Whom?October 13, 1971, Box 13, NPMP; 《毛泽东外交文选》，北京：中央文献出版社、世界知识出版社1994年10月版，第593页；《建国以来毛泽东文稿》(第13册)，第166-167页。
⑦ Statement by Nixon to American Society of Newspaper Editors, April 16, 1971, Box 1031, NPMP.
⑧ Chert Jian and David L. Wilson, "All under the Heaven Is Great Chaos: Beijing, The Sino-Soviet Border Clashes and the Turn toward Sino-American Rapprochement, 1968-1969," Cold War International History Projcct Bulletin, No. 11, Winter 1998/1999, pp. 155-175.
⑨ National Security Study Memorandum 124, April 19. 1971, Box 1031, NPMP.
① Henry Kissinger, White Hottse Years, Boston and Toronto: Little, Brown and Company. 1979, p. 1088.
② Memorandum from Kissinger to Farland, May 20, 1971, Box 1031, NPMP.
③ Memorandum of Conversation between Kissinger and Zhou. July 9, 1971, Box 1033. NPMP.
④ 邢广程著：《苏联高层决策70年——从列宁到戈尔巴乔夫》(第四分册)，北京：世界知识出版社，1998年版，第144页。
⑤ Memorandum of Convérsation between Kissinger and Zhou. July 10, 1971, Box 1033,NPMP.
⑥ [美]陶涵著：《蒋经国传》第313页；第327页。
⑦ Memorandum of Conversation between Kissinger and Zhou, July 10, 1971, Box 1033. NPMP.
① Memorandum of Conversation between Huang Chen and Kissinger, August 19, 1971. Box. 330, NPMP.
② Memorandum from Kissinger to Nixon, November 11, 1971, Box 1035/1, NPMP.
③ Memorandum of Conversation between Kissinger and Huang Hua, December 15, 1971, Box 330, NPMP.
④ 1999年尼克松时期外交档案部分解密时，这几句话未能得到公开，直至2003年11月14日美国才公开这几句话。参见张曙光、周建明编译：《中美“解冻”与台湾问题——尼克松外交文献选编》(尚未出版)，2004年4月，第138页。
⑤ Memorandum of Conversation between Nixon and Mao. February 21, 1972, Box 16/3, NPMP.
⑥ Memorandum of Conversation between Kissinger and Zhou, July 11, 1971, Box 1033, NPMP.
① Memorandum of Conversation between Kissinger and Zhou", July 10, 1971, Box 1033, NPMP. 1952年4月28日《旧金山和约》签订的同一天，日本吉田政府和蒋介石集团签订了“日台条约”，建立了“外交关系”，日本与台湾当局在遏制新中国的目标下形成了密切的战略关系。
② Memorandum of Conversation between Kissinger and Zhou, July 11, 1971, Box 1033, NPMP.
③ Memorandum of Conversation between Kissinger and Zhou, October 22, 1971, Box 1033, NPMP.
④ Memorandum of Conversation between Kissinger and Zhou, July 9, 1971, Box 1033, NPMP.
⑤ Memorandum of Conversation between Kissinger and Zhou, July 10, 1971, Box 1033, NPMP; Memorandum of Conversation between Kissinger and Zbou, February 24, 1972, Box 1033, NPMP.
⑥ Memorandum of Conversation between Kissinger and Zhou, October 20, 1971, Box 1033, NPMP.
⑦ Memorandum of Conversation between Kissinger and Zhou, July 10, 1971, Box 1033, NPMP.
⑧ Ibid.
① Memorandum of Conversation between Kissinger and Zhou, October 21, 1971, Box 1033, NPMP.
② Issues and Talking Points: Taiwan, December 31, 1971, Box 91/3, NPMP.
③ Memorandum of Conversation between Kissinger and Zhou, October 21, 1971, Box 1033, NPMP.
④ Ibid.
⑤ Ibid.
⑥ Memorandum from Kissinger to Nixon, November 11, 1971, Box 1035/1, NPMP.
① Memorandum of Conversation between Kissinger and Zhou, July 9, 1971, Box 1033, NPMP.
② Memorandum of Conversation between Kissinger and Zhou, July 10, 1971, Box 1033, NPMP.
③ Memorandum of Conversation between Kissinger and Zhou, October 21, 1971, Box 1033, NPMP.
④ Memorandum of Conversation between Kissinger and Zhou, July 10, 1971, Box 1033, NPMP.
⑤ Memorandum of Conversation between Anatolia, Dobrvnin and Kissinger. August 17. 1971, Box 340. NPMP.
⑥ [俄]多勃雷宁著，肖敏、王为等译：《信赖：多勃雷宁回忆录》，北京：世界知识出版社，1997年版，第273页。
⑦ Memorandum of Conversation between Kissinger and Huang Hua, December 15, 1971, Box 330, NPMP.
⑧ Memorandum of Conversation between Kissinger and Huang Hua, November 29, 1971, Box 330, NPMP.
① Memorandum of Conversation between Huang Chen and Kissinger, August 19, 1971, Box 330, NPMP.
② Memorandum from Kissinger to Nixon, September 13, 1971, Box 330, NPMP.
③ Memorandum of Conversation between Kissinger and Huang Hua, December 15, 1971, Box 330; NPMP.
④ Ibid.
⑤ Ibid.
⑥ 由于内容的敏感性，美国国务院直至2003年11月14日才解密这段话。参见张曙光、周建明编译：《中美“解冻”与台湾问题——尼克松外交文献选编》，第138页。
⑦ Memorandum from Kissinger to Nixon, November 11, 1971, Box 1035/1, NPMP.
① HAK Administrative and Staff Files: U. S. China Policy 1969-1972, 1971? Box 13, NPMP.
② Memorandum of Conversation between Nixon and Mao, February 21, 1972, Box 16/3,NPMP; 逢先知、金冲及主编：《毛泽东传(1949-1976)》(下)，北京：中央文献出版社，2003年版，第1638页。
③ Memorandum of Conversation between Nixon and Zhou, February 23, 1972, Box 16/3, NPMP.
④ Memorandum from Robert Hormats to General Haig, June 25, 1972, Box 329, NPMP.
⑤ Memorandum of Conversation between Nixon and Mao, February 21, 1972, Box 16/3, NPMP.
⑥ George F. Liska, Nations in Alliance: The Limits of Interdependence, Baltimore: Johns Hopkins Press, 1968, p.99.
⑦ Memorandum of Conversation between Nixon and Mao, February 21, 1972, Box16/3, NPMP.
① U. S. Foreign Policy for the 1970's: New Departures for Peace, December 14, 1971, Box 13/1, NPMP.
② 张曙光著：《美国对华战略：考虑与决策(1949-1972)》，前言。
③ Memorandum of Conversation between Kissinger and M. Froment-Meurice, August 19, 1971, Box 1026,NPMP.
④ Annual Review: Outline and Possible Themes, 1971, Box 13/4, NPMP.
⑤ Memorandum of Conversation between French Prime Minister Chaban-Delmas and Kissinger, August 4, 1969, Box 1023, NPMP.
⑥ Henry Kissinger, White House Years, pp. 638-639.
⑦ Jonathan B. Isacoff and Wesley W. Widmaier, "Systemic Interpretations and the National Interest: Presidential 'Lessons of Vietnam' and Policy Deliberation." International Relations Vol 17 No. 2. 2003. p. 182.
⑧ [俄]多勃雷宁著：《信赖：多勃雷宁回忆录》，第272页。
① 萧冬连著：《五十年国事纪要》(外交卷)，第301页。
② From George C. Denney to Rogers, Intelligence Note, March 4, 1969, RG59, Box 1023, NPMP.
③ Memorandum of Conversation between Nixon and Zhou, February 23, 1972, Box 16/3, NPMP.
④ 宫力著：《毛泽东外交风云录》，北京：中央民族大学出版社，2004年版，第506页。
⑤ 萧冬连著：《五十年国事纪要》(外交卷)，第334页。
⑥ Memorandum of Conversation between Nixon and Zhou, February 21, 1972, Box 16/3, NPMP.
⑦ Memorandumcon among Kissinger, Jay Lovestone, Thomas Gleason" June 9, 1969, Box 1026/23, NPMP.
⑧ Memorandum of Conversation between Kissinger and Zhou, October 22, 1971, Box 1033, NPMP.
① Haig's January 12 China Trip", Undated, Undated, Box 1037/4, NPMP.
② Memorandum of Conversation between Nixon and Mao, February 21, 1972, Box 16/3, NPMP.
③ Memorandum of Conversation between Nixon and Zhou, February 22, 1972, Box 16/3, NPMP.
④ Memorandum of Conversation between Nixon and Zhou, February 21, 1972, Box 16/3, NPMP.
⑤ 关于这一点，两方学者强更多的是第一点，而忽略了第二和第三点。参见论文G. W. Choudhury, "Bangladesh: Why It Happened," International Affairs, Vol. 48, No. 2, 1972.
⑥ Haig's January 12 China Trip, Undated, Box 1037/4, NPMP.
⑦ Memocon between Haig and Zhou, January 3, 1972, Box 1037. NPMP.
⑧ 萧冬连著：《五十年国事纪要》(外交卷)，第327页。
⑨ Memocon between Nixon and Zhou, February 23, 1972, Box 16/3, NPMP.
⑩ Memocon between Haig and Zhou, January 3, 1972, Box 1037, NPMP.
① Memocon between Nixon and Zhou, Febmary 23, 1972, Box 16/3, NPMP.
② Memocon between Haig and Zhou,January 7, 1972, Box 1037, NPMP.
③ 美国国务院直至2003年11月14日才解密这段内容。参见张曙光、周建明编译：《中美“解冻”与台湾问题——尼克松外交文献选编》，第166页。
④ Memocon between Nixon and Zhou, February 24, 1972, Box 16/3, NPMP.
⑤ Memorandum from the Situation room to Kissinger, March 2, 1972, Box343, NPMP.
⑥ 陶文钊著：《中美关系史(1972-2000)》，上海：上海人民出版社，2004年版，第8页。
① James Lee Ray, Global Politics, 4th ed., Boston: Houghton Miffiim Company, 1990, p. 405.
② Memocon between Nixon and Zhou, February 22, 1972, Box 16/3, NPMP.
③ Memorandum from Kissinger to Nixon, July 14, 1971, Box 1033, NPMP.
④ Memorandum of Conversation between Nixon and Zhou, February 21, 1972, Box 16/3, NPMP.
⑤ Memorandumcon between Nixon and Zhou, February 28, 1972, Box 16/3, NPMP.
⑥ Letter from Marshall Green to the Acting Secretary, August 12, 1969, Box 334, NPMP.
⑦ Ibid.
⑧ Haig's January 12 China Trip, Undated, Box 1037/4, NPMP.
① Memocon between Haig and Zhou, January 3, 1972, Box 1037, NPMP.
② Ibid.
③ Meeting with the Congressional Leadership on China, February 1972, Box 16/2, NPMP.
④ Weekly Review, released by Directorate of Intelligence, March 21, 1969, Box 28, NPMP.
⑤ Memorandum from General Haig to Nixon, April, 1972, Box 1036/4, NPMP.
⑥ Bevin Alexander, The Strange Connection: U.S. Intervention in China, 1944-1972, New York: Greenwood Press, 1992, p. 216.
① 电报。美国驻台大使马康卫致国务院，1969年6月4日，题日：“日本在台湾的影响提升”。参见张曙光、周建明编译：《中美“解冻”与台湾问题——尼克松外交文献选编》，第52—60页。
② 同上，第134页。
③ Memorandum from Kissinger to Nixon, July 14, 1971, Box 1033, NPMP.
④ Memorandum of Conversation between Kissinger and Zhou, October 22, 1971, Box 1033, NPMP.
⑤ 这是2003年11月14日才解密的部分。参见张曙光、周建明编译：《中美“解冻”与台湾问题——尼克松外交文献选编》，第164页。
① 这是2003年11月14日才解密的部分。参见张曙光、周建明编译：《中美“解冻”与台湾问题——尼克松外交文献选编》，第186页。
② Opening remarks by Kissinger, July 16, 1971, Box 1036/1, NPMP.
③ Memorandum of Conversation between Nixon and Zhou, February 26, 1972, Box 16/3, NPMP.
④ Henry Kissinger, White House Years, p. 1090.
⑤ Memorandum of Conversation between Kissinger and Zhou, October 20, 1971, Box 1033, NPMP.
⑥ Memorandum of Conversation between Kissinger and Zhou, July 10, 1971, Box 1033, NPMP.
⑦ Memorandum from Kissinger to Nixon, February 5, 1972, Box 1033, NPMP.
① Memorandum of Conversation between Kissinger and Zhou, October 20, 1971, Box 16/3, NPMP.
② Memorandum for the president from Maurice H. Stans, May 19, 1969, Box 2/1, NPMP.
③ Warsaw Embassy Airgram A-25 IV to Secretary of State, January 24, 1970, RG59, Subject-Numeric Files 70-73,Box 700, NPMP.
④ President's Personal Files, Februarv 3. 1971. Box 166, NPMP.
⑤ Taiwan, June 30, 1971, Box 1032/1, NPMP.该文件可能是一份研究报告，但目前尚不清楚起草者是谁。
⑥ Next Steps toward the People's Republic of China, Issues Paper, June 1, 1971, Box 3, NPMP.
⑦ Memorandum of Conversation between Kissinger and Zhou, July 10, 1971, Box 1033, NPMP.
① Memorandum for Nixon, February 2, 1972, Box 1036/4, NPMP.
② Memorandum from Phil Odeen to Kissinger, March 28, 1972, Box 1036/4, NPMP.
③ Memorandum from John H. Holdridge to Kissinger, November 3, 1972, Box 329, NPMP.
④ Memorandum from General Haig to Hood, December 29, 1972, Box329, NPMP.关于尼克松政府对台军售情况可参见相关的数据：Memorandum from Richard T. Kennedy to Kissinger, March 3, 1973, Box 329, NPMP.
⑤ Statement by Senator Peter H. Dominick, March 3, 1972, Box 16/3, NPMP.
⑥ Memocon between Yen Chia-ken and Nixon, January 5, 1973, Box 1026/23, NPMP.
⑦ NSCF, Current Problem Book, January 19737 Box 91/2, NPMP.
① HAK Administrative and Staff Files: China, 1971, Box 13, NPMP.
② Memorandum of Conversation between Kissinger and Zhou, July 9, 1971, Box 1033, NPMP.
③ Briefing given by Kissinger in the Family Theater of the White House, March 7, 1972, Box 1026/2, NPMP.
④ Memorandum of Conversation between Nixon and Zhou, February 22, 1972, Box 16/3, NPMP.
⑤ Memocon between Haig and Zhou, January 7, 1972, Box 1037, NPMP.
⑥ Memocon between Haig and Zhou, January 3, 1972, Box 1037, NPMP.
⑦ Memocon by Henry Grunwald, Hugh Sidey and Jerry Schecter, August 13, 1971, Box 1026/23, NPMP.
① Memorandum of Conversation between Nixon andZhou, February 22, 1972, Box 16/3, NPMP;《建国以来毛泽东文稿》(第13册)，第282页。
② Violation of People's Republic of China Airspace, April 19, 1972, Box329, NPMP.
③ Memorandum of Conversation between Nixon and Zhou, February 22, 1972, Box 16/3, NPMP.
④ Memorandum of Conversation between Nixon and Zhou, February 28, 1972, Box 16/3, NPMP.
⑤ Henry Kissinger, Years of Upheaval, Boston and Toronto: Little, Brown and Company, 1982, p. 690; 陶文钊著：《中美关系史(1972-2000)》，第7页。
⑥ Memorandum of Conversation between Nixon and Mao, February 21, 1972, Box 16/3, NPMP.
⑦ 《律国以来毛泽东文稿》(第13册)，第356-357页。
⑧ Memocon by Nixon and Kissinger etc, July 19. 1971, Box 1036, NPMP.
① Memocon by Nixon and Kissinger etc, July 19, 1971, Box 1036, NPMP.
② Memorandum from Kissinger to Nixon on Warsaw Talks, February 20, 1970, Box 700, NPMP.
③ Memorandum of Conversation between Nixon and Zhou, February 28, 1972, Box 16/3, NPMP.
④ Memorandum of Conversation between Kissinger and Zhou, October 24, 1971, Box 1033, NPMP.
⑤ Ibid.
⑥ Ibid.
⑦ Memocon between Haig and Zhou, January 3, 1972, Box 1037, NPMP.
⑧ Security assistance and the Nixon Doctrine by Kissinger, August 1969, Box 324/1, NPMP.
① Memorandum from Kissinger to Nixon, July 14, 1971, Box 1033, NPMP.
② Kissinger's speech at Asian Soxiety Dinner, Plaza Hotel, New York City, May 5, 1972, Box 1026/5, NPMP.
③ [美]约翰米尔斯海默著，王义桅、唐小松译：《大国政治的悲剧》，上海：上海人民出版社，2003年版，第391页。
④ Henry Kissinger, Years of Upheavals, pp. 692-694.
① Ibid., pp. 692-694.
② Hou Tsung Chien, U.S. Policy toward China, 1912 to Present, (A dissertation), Michigan: University Microfilms International, 1986, p. 308.
③ Kissinger, White House Years, p. 1060; Yufan Hao, Dilemma and Decision: An Organizational Perspective on American China Policy, Berkeley, C. A.: Institute of East Asian Studies, 1997, p.36;陶文钊著：《中美关系史(1972-2000)》，第11页。
④ Kissinger. White House Years, pp. 1090-1091.
⑤ “浪漫三角关系”是指A、B、C三国中，A国同时与B国和C国保持友好关系，而B国与C国处于敌对关系。
⑥ [美]约翰·米尔斯海默著：《大国政治的悲剧》，第216页。
① Memocon between the President Nixon and Prime Minster Wilson, January 27, 1970, Box 1023/3, NPMP.
② Memorandum from Kissinger to Nixon, July 14, 1971, Box 1033, NPMP.
③ Kissinger, White House Years, pp. 1090-1092.
④ Ibid., pp. 191-194.
⑤ [俄]多勃雷宁著：《信赖：多勃雷宁回忆录》，第262页。
⑥ Memorandum of Conversation between Nixon and Zhou. February 28. 1972, Box 16/3.
⑦ 逢先知、金冲及主编：《毛泽东传(1949-1976)》(下)，第1671页,第1680页。
① Henry Kissinger, White House Years, pp. 1089-1092.
② 参见附录部分：《中华人民共和国和美利坚合众国联合公报》(《上海公报》)。
③ “谢尔巴科夫‘关于越南劳动党解决印度支那问题的政策与苏联根据苏共二十四大决议所面临的任务’的政治信函”，1971年5月21日。参见沈志华总主编，叶书宗主编：《苏联历史档案选编》，第460页。
① 国内也有些学者将“Taiwan Relations Act”译为“台湾关系法”，为保持行文统一，本文一律使用《与台湾关系法》。
② 如Robert S. Ross, Negotiating Cooperation: The United States and China, 1969-1989, California: Stanford University Press, 1995; Ilpyong Kim, The Strategic Triangle: China, the United States and the Soviet Union, New York: Paragon House, 1987;苏茖著：美国对华政策与台湾问题，北京：世界知识出版社，1998年版。
③ 如Barnett, A. Doak, U.S. Arms Sales: the China-Taiwan Tangle, Washington D. C.: Brookings Institutions, 1982; King-yuh Chang, ed., ROC-U.S. Relations under the Taiwan Relations Act: Practice and Prospects, Taipei: Institute of International Relations, 1988；肖元恺著：《百年之结——美国与中国台湾地区关系的历史透视》，北京：人民出版社，2001年版等。
④ 参见孙德刚：《美台准联盟关系的源起：1979—1980》，载《社会科学》，2006年第第1期，第70—80页。
① Department of State, "U.S. Policy Toward China, July 15, 1971-January 15, 1979," Selected Documents, No. 9, Office of Public Communication, Bureau of Public Affairs, 1979, p. 32.
② Tan Qingshan, The Making of U.S. China Policy: From Normalization to the Post-Cold War Era, Boulder: Lynne Rienner Publishers, 1992, pp. 26-27.
③ Robert Downen, The Taiwan Pawn in the China Game: Congress to the Rescue, Washington D.C.: The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 1979, p. 20.
④ "Diplomatic Relations between the United States and the People's Republic of China, Address to the Nation," December 15, 1978, Public papers of the Presidents of the United States, Jimmy Carter, 1978, Washington D. C.: GPO, 1979, p. 2265.
⑤ Senate Taiwan Hearings before the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations, Washington DC: GPO, 1979, pp. 35-37.
⑥ “卡特总统致电蒋经国，1978年12月16日”，参见梅孜主编：《美台关系重要资料选编：1948．11-1996．4》，北京：时事出版社，1996年版，第140页。
① “卡特总统致电蒋经国，1978年12月16日”，参见梅孜主编：《美台关系重要资料选编：1948．11-1996．4)，北京：时事出版社，1996年版，第140页。
② 台湾《中央日报》，1978年12月17日。转引自肖元恺著：《百年之结——美国与中国台湾地区关系的历史透视》，北京：人民出版社，2001年版，第179-180页。
③ “卡特总统与哥伦比亚广播公司记者的谈话，1978年12月19日，梅孜主编：《美台关系重要资料选编：1948．11-1996．4》，第140—142页。
④ David Taiwei Lee, The Making of the Taiwan RelationsAct: Twenty Years in Retrospect, Oxford and New York: Oxford University Press, 2000, p. 19.
⑤ 沈剑虹著：《使美八年纪要》，北京：世界知识出版社，1983年版，第199—201页：苏格著：美国对华政策与台湾问题，北京：世界知识出版社，1998年版，第452页：[美]陶涵著，林添贵译：《蒋经国传》，
① 1979年1月10日，美国曾通知台湾当局，美国将在台湾建立“美洲在台湾协会”的非官方机构，后来经台湾谈判代表的交涉，原来的中文译名改为“美国在台协会”。
② “美国政府宣布建立‘美国在台协会’，1979年1月16日”，梅孜主编：《美台关系重要资料选编：1948．11-1996．4》．第153—154页。
③ “Taiwan Reluctantly Agrees to Non-government US Tie,”Washington Post，February13，1979．另可参见[美]陶涵著：《蒋经国传》，第373页。
④ "Taipei to Set up New Organization to Continue Its Ties with the U S," New York Times, February 16, 1979.
① Scott Kennedy, ed., China Cross Talk: The American Debate over China Policy since Normalization, Lanham: Rowman & Littlefield Publishers, 2003, pp. 11-23.
② 苏格著：《美国对华政策与台湾问题》，第458页。
③ David N. Rowe, Ally Betrayed: The Republic of China, Alexandria, Va.: Western Goals, 1982, p, 15.
④ 又名《台湾授权法案》(Taiwan Enabling Act)。
⑤ Senate Taiwan Hearings before the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations, p. 261. 《美国国会与中美关系》，北京：新华出版社，2004年版，第168—174页。
① Senate Taiwan Hearings before the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations, pp. 15-16.
② Ibid., pp. 35—37.
③ Ibid., pp. 368—370.
④ Ibid., pp. 784—785.
⑤ Ibid., pp. 29—30.
① Ibid., pp. 29—30.
② Ibid., pp. 453—454.
③ Ibid., pp. 464—466.
④ Ibid., pp. 448-450.
① Ibid., p. 43.
② Congressional Record, March 7, 1979, Washington D. C.: GPO, 1979, p. S2132.
③ Lester L. Wolff and David L. Simon, eds., Legislative History of the Taiwan Relations Act:AnAnalytic Compilation on Subsequet Developments, Jamaica: American Association for Chinese Studies, 1982, p.19.
④ Congressional Record, March 7, 1979, p. S2117.
① Congressional Record, March 7, 1979, p. S2117.
② Congressional Record，March 8，1979，p．S2139．另可参见苏格著：《美国对华政策与台湾问题》，第470—472页。
③ Wolff and Simon, eds., Legislative History of the Taiwan Relations Act, pp.20—21.
④ Congressional Record, March 8, 1979, p. H1149.
⑤ Ibid, p. H1151.
⑥ Ibid, p. H1182.
⑦ Wolff and Simon, eds., Legislative History of the Taiwan Relations Act, pp.17—18.
① Congressional Record, March 13, 1979, p. H1255.
② Congressional Record, March 8, 1979, p. Hl151.
③ Congressional Record. March 13, 1979, p. H1266.
④ “参众两院协商委员会对《与台湾关系法》的联合解释声明，1979”，梅孜主编：《美台关系重要资料选编：1948．11-1996．4》．第177—178页。
⑤ Lester L. Wolff and David L. Simon, eds., Legislative History of the Taiwan Relations Act, p. 86; pp. 95-96.
① Lester L. Wolff and David L. Simon, eds., Legislative History of the Taiwan Relations Act, p. 86; pp. 95-96
② 《与台湾关系法》英文全义可参见Lester L．Wolff and David L．Simon，eds．，Legislative History of the Taiwan Relations Act，pp．288-295．
③ "Taiwan Conference Issue Papers," House Foreign Affairs Committee Files, 96th Session, 1st Session, 1979, Washington D. C.: GPO, 1979, p. 8.
④ Ibid., pp.17-19.
⑤ Taiwan Relations Act Conference Report, House of Representative, March 24, 1979, Washington D. C.: GPO, 1979, p. 14.
⑥ Ibid., p. 17.
⑦ Congressional Record, March 28, 1979, p. H1764. Westview Press, 1983, pp. 89-110.
① 苏格著：《美国对华政策与台湾问题》，第478—479页。
② Francis Clines, "President Invites Deal in Congress for Jobs," New York Times, December 18, 1982.
③ 下文中的“卡特—里根时期”除特别说明外，一律特指1979—1982年这四年。
④ Cyrus Vance, Hard. Choices: Critical Years in America's Foreign Policy, New York: Simon and Schuster, 1983, P. 115.
⑤ Zbigniew Brzezinski, Power and Principle: Memoirs of the National Security Advisor, 1977-1981, New York: Farrar, Straus, and Giroux, 1983, p. 231.
① Cyrus Vance, Hard Choices: Critical Years in America's Foreign Policy, New York: Simon and Schuster, 1983, p. 115.
② Zbigniew Brzezinski, Power and Principle: Memoirs of the National Security Advisor, 1977-1981, New York: Farrar, Straus, and Giroux, 1983, p. 231.
③ Jimmy Carter, Keeping Faith, New York: Bantam Boos, 1992, pp. 209-210.
④ Robert G. Sutter, The China Quandary: Domestic Determinants of U. S. China Policy, 1972-1982, pp. 145-146.
⑤ House, Subcommittee on Asian and Pacific Affairs of the Committee on Foreign Affairs, Implementation of the Taiwan Relations Act: Hearings before the Subcommittee on Asian and Pacific Affairs of the Committee on Foreign Affairs, House of Representatives, 96th Congress, 2nd Session, 1980, pp. 28-29.
⑥ Ibid．，pp．28-29．另可参见“美国会总审计局国际处处长肯尼思·法西克在参议院外委会亚太事务小组委员会上的证词，1980年5月14日”，梅孜主编：《美台关系重要资料选编：1948．11-1996．4》，第189页。
⑦ Hungdah Chiu, Hsihg-Wei Lee and Chih-Yu T. Wu, eds., Implementation of Taiwan Relations Act: An Examination after Twenty Years, Baltimore, MD.: University of Maryland, 2001, p. 24.
⑧ Dennis Van Vranken Hickey, United States-Taiwan Security lies: From Cold War to beyond Containment, Westport, C. T.: Praeger Publishers, 1993, p. 31.
⑨ World Military Expenditures and Arms Transfers, 1972-1982, Washington D. C.: GPO, 1984, p. 64.
⑩ Jaw-Ling Joanne Chang and William W. Bayer, eds., United States-Taiwan Relations: Twenty Years After the
① 梅孜主编：《美台关系重要资料选编：1948．11-1996．4》，第22-23页。
② [美]陶涵著：《蒋经国传》，第373-374页。
③ 沈剑虹著：《使美八年纪要》，第213页。
④ 肖元恺著：《百年之结——美国与中国台湾地区关系的历史透视》，第210页。另可参见Robert L．Downen，The Tattered China Card: Reality of Illusion in United Strategy? Washington D．C．：Council for Social and Economic Studies，1984，pp．75-76．
⑤ [美]陶涵著：《蒋经国传》，第398页。
⑥ 宫力著：《峰谷间的震荡：1979年以来的中美关系》，北京：中国青年出版社，1996年版，第61、64、69页。
⑦ Ramon Hawley Myers, ed., A Unique Relationship: The United States and the Republic of China Under the Taiwan Relations Act, Stanford: Hoover Institution Press, 1989, p. 67.
⑧ Alexander Jr. Haig, Caveat: Realism, Reagan and Foreign Policy,, New York: Macmillan, 1984, p. 208.
① "Letter to Premier Zhao Ziyang of the People's Republic of China on the 10th Anniversary of the Shanghai Communiqué, February 28, 1982," Public papers of the Presidents of the United States, Arnold Reagan, 1982, p.234.
② Wolff and Simon, eds., Legislative History of the Taiwan Relations Act, pp. 323-324.
③ US Congress, Senate, Committee on Foreign Relations, "US Policy toward China and Taiwan, Hearings," 97th Congress, 2nd Session, August 17, 1982, p. 3.
④ Public papers of the Presidents of the United States, Ronald Reagan, 1982, p. 1054.
① Steven W. Mosher, ed., The United States and the Republic of China: Democratic Friends, Strategic Allies and Economic Partners, New Brunswick, N. J.: Transaction Publishers, 1992, p. 107.
② "Remarks at a Meeting with Republican Congressional Candidates," October 6, 1982, Public papers of the Presidents of the United States, Ronald Reagan, 1982, p. 1274.
③ Public papers of the Presidents of the United States, Jimmy Carter, 1979, p. 257.
④ Public papers of the Presidents of the United States, Ronald Reagan, 1983, p. 1646.
⑤ 梅孜主编：《美台关系重要资料选编：1948．11-1996．4》，第154-155页。
⑥ Lai To Lee, The Reunification of China: PRC-Taiwan Relations in Flux, New York: Praeger Publishers, 1991, pp. 62-65.
① House, Hearings on Implementation of the Taiwan Relations Act, 96th Congress, 1st Session, pp. 66-67.
② Senate, Committee on Foreign Affairs, Hearings on Implementation of the Taiwan Relations Act: The First Year, 96th Congress, 1st Session, November 8, 1979, pp. 66-67.
③ King-yuh Chang, ed., ROC-U. S. Relations under the Taiwan Relations Act: Practice and Prospects, Taipei: Institute of International Relations, 1988, p. 29.
④ US Department of State, Office of Treaty Affairs, Treaties in Force, Washihgton D.C.: US GPO, 1987, pp. 1558-1559.
⑤ Robert L. Downen, Of Grave Concern: US-Taiwan Relations on the Threshold of the 1980s, Washington D. C.: Georgetown University Press, Center for Strategic and International Studies, 1981, p. 61.
⑥ Haig, Caveat, p.200.
⑦ 陶文钊著：《中美关系史(1972-2000)》，上海：上海人民出版社，2004年版，第110-111页。
① House, Implementation of the Taiwan Relations Act, 96th Congress, 1st Session, 1979, p. 42.
② Senate, Committee on Foreign Relations, Hearings on Taiwan Relations Act, 96th Congress, 1st Session, 1979, p.778.
③ Jen-Kun Fu, Taiwan and the Geopolitics of the Asian-American Dilemma, Westport: Praeger Publishers, 1992, p.82.
④ Senate Taiwan Hearings before the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations, Washington DC: GPO, 1979, pp. 463-464.
① Lee, The Reunification of China, p. 62.
② Jen-Kun Fu, Taiwan and the Geopolitics of the Asian-American Dilemma, p. 80.
③ Hungdah Chiu, Hsing-Wei Lee and Chih-Yu T. Wu, eds., Implementation of Taiwan Relations Act: An Examination after Twenty Years, p. 223,
① King-yuh Chang ed., ROC-U. S. Relations under the Taiwan Relations Act, p. 29.
② Chiu, Lee and T. Wu, eds., Implementation of Taiwan Relations Act, p. 231
③ Leonard Unger, "The Cultural Intermingling of China and America," Sino-American Relations, Vol. 6, No. 2, Summer 1980, p. 33.
④ Ramon Hawley Myers. ed., A Unique Relationship, p. 156.
⑤ 肖元恺著：《百年之结——美国与中国台湾地区关系的历史透视》，第221页。
⑥ King-yuh Chang ed., ROC-U. S. Relations under the Taiwan Relations Act, p. 118.
⑦ Chiu, Lee and Wu, eds., Implementation of Taiwan Relations Act, p. 233.
① David N. Rowe, Ally Betrayed: The Republic of China, p. 44.
① US Department of State Bulletin, Vol. 66, 1972, Washington D. C.: US GPO, 1972, p.2022.
② Congressional and Administrative News, 96th Congress, 1st Session, 1979, p. 88.
③ Senate Taiwan Hearings, 1979, pp. 706-707.
④ Taiwan Relations Act: Conference Report Accompanying House of Representatives, 96th Congress, 1st Session, 1979, pp. 7-8.
⑤ A. James Gregor and Maria Hsia Chang, The Republic of China and the U.S. Policy, Washington D.C.: Ethics and Public Policy Center, 1983, p. 41.
① A. James Gregor and Maria Hsia Chang, The Republic of China and the U.S. Policy, Washington D. C.: Ethics and Public Policy Center, 1983, p. 41.
② Taiwan Relations Act: Conference ReportAccompanying House of Representatives, p.586.
③ Congressional Record, March 7, 1979, p. S2163.
④ Hans J. Morgenthau and Kenneth W. Thompson, Politics Among Nations: The Struggle for Power and Peace, New Delhi: Kalyani Publishers, 1985, p. 5.
① Downen, The Tattered China Card, pp. 75-76.
② Martin L. Lasater, The Taiwan Conundrum in U. S. China Policy, Boulder: Westview Press, 2000, p. 51.
③ Senate Committee Hearings, 96th Congress, 1st Session, 1979, p. 649.
④ Ibid., p. 439.
⑤ Congressional Record, March 13, 1979, p. H1256.
⑥ U. S. Congress, Senate, "U. S. Policy toward China and Taiwan, Hearings before the Committee on Foreign Relations," 97th Congress, 2nd Session, 1982, p. 3.
① "Taiwan Legislation," Hearings before the House Committee on Foreign Affairs, 96th Congress, 1st Session, 1979, pp. 20-21.
② Tom W. Smith, "The Poll's: American Attitudes towards the Soviet Union and Communism," Public Opinion Quarterly, Vol. 47, 1983, p. 281.
③ Ole R. Holsti and James N. Rosenau, Araerican Leadership in World Affairs: Vietnam and the Breakdown of Consensus, Boston: Allen & Unwin, 1984, p. 231.
④ Congressional Record, March 13, 1979, p. H1279.
⑤ Rowe, Ally Betrayed, p. 51.
① Sutter, The China Quandary, p. 53.
② Gallop Opinion Index Report, January 1980, Washington D. C.: US GPO, 1980, pp. 37-38.
③ Public Papers of the Presidents of the United States, Ronald Reagan, 1981, p. 1646.
④ Michael Hunt, Ideology and U. S. Foreign Policy, New Haven: Yale University Press, 1987, p. 186.
⑤ "Statement on Singing H. R. 2479 Into Law," April 10, 1979, Public Papers of the Presidents of the United States, Jimmy Carter, 1979, p. 641.
⑥ Chen Jie, Ideology in U. S. Foreign Policy: Case Studies in U. S. China Policy, Westport: Praeger Publishers, 1995, p. 100.
⑦ James Mann, About Face: A History of America "s Curious Relationship with China, from Nixon to Clinton, New York: Knopf, 1999, p. 115.
① James Mann, About Face: A History of America's Curious Relationship with China, fi'om Nixon to Clinton, New York: Knopf, 1999, p. 115.
② Martin L. Lasater, Policy in Evolution: The U. S. Role in China "s Reunification, Boulder: Westview Press, 1989, p. 41, The President s Ne s Conference, June 16, 1981, Pubhc Papers of the Presidents of the United States, Ronald Reagan, 1981, p. 526.
③ 梅孜主编：《美台关系重要资料选编：1948．11．1996．4》，第270页。
④ American Council for Free China, Press Release, Washington D. C.: US GPO, June 21, 1981; Lasater, Policy in Evolution, p. 79.
① Senate Taiwan Hearings, February 6, 1979, 96th Congress, 1st Session, 1979, p. 549.
② Elizabeth Van Wie Dabis, Chinese Perspectives on Sino-American Relations, 1950-2000, Lewiston: E. Mellen Press, 2000, p. 135.
① Karl W. Deutsch and Morton A. Kaplan, "The Limits of International Coalitions," in Julian R. Friedman, Christopher Bladen, and Steven Rosen, eds., Alliance in International Politics, Boston, Mass.: Allyn and Bacon, Inc., 1970, p. 278.
② Benjamin I. Page, "The Theory of Political Ambiguity," The American Political Science Review, Vol. 76, 1982, p. 742.
③ Barry Rubin and Thomas A. Keaney, eds., USAllies in A Changing World, London: FRANK CASS, 2001, p. 226.
④ Lee, The Reunification of China, p.62.
① Lee. The Making of the Taiwan Relations Act, p. 185.
② [美]约翰·米尔斯海默著，王义桅、唐小松译：《大国政治的悲剧》，上海：上海人民出版社，2003年版，第220页。
③ James Shen, The United States and Free China: How the US Sold out Its Ally, Washington D. C.: Acropolis Books, 1983, p. 243. 第220页。
① James Shen, The United States and Free China: How the US Sold out Its Ally, Washington D. C.: Acropolis Books, 1983, p. 243.
② "The President's News Conference of January 17, 1979," Public Papers of the Presidents of the United States, Jimmy Carter; 1979, p. 257.
③ Myers, ed., A Unique Relationship, p. 37.
④ Senate Taiwan Hearings, 96th Congress, 1st Session, 1979, p. 11.
⑤ Oversight of Taiwan Relations Act: Hearings before the Subcommittee on East Asia and Pacific Affairs, 96th Congress, 1st Session, 1979, p. 13.
⑥ House, Implementation of the Taiwan Relations Act: Hearings before the Subcommittee on Foreign Affairs, 96th Congress, 2nd Session, 1980, p. 6.
① Hickey, United States-Taiwan Security Ties, p. 34.
② "Remarks on Receiving the Council's Final Report," December 22, 1980, Public Papers of the Presidents of the United States, Jimmy Carter, 1980-81, p. 2828.
③ "Message to the Congress on Trade with Romania, Hungary and People's Republic of China," June 2, 1981, Public Papers of the Presidents of the United States, Ronald Reagan, 1981, p. 479.
④ 这就是“卡特主义”。参见Robert S. Ross, Negotiating Cooperation: The United States and China, 1969-1989, Stanford: Stanford University Press, 1995, p. 165.
⑤ 1980年波兰国内局势动荡，苏联以此为借口封锁了民主德国与波兰的边界，并与东欧社会主义国家学行联合军事演习。以美国为首的西方国家警告苏联不要入侵波兰。
⑥ American Foreign Policy: Current Documents, 1981, Washington D. C: US GPO, 1984, p. 545.
⑦ "The President's News Conference," June 16, 1981, Public Papers of the Presidents of the United States, Ronald Reagan, 1981, p. 526.
① American Foreign Policy: Current Documents, 1981, Washington D.C: US GPO, 1984, p. 545.
② "The President's News Conference," June 16, 1981, Public Papers of the Presidents of the United States, Ronald Reagan, 1981, p. 526.
③ American Foreign Policy: Current Documents, 1981, pp. 948-949.
④ Haig, Caveat, p. 199.
⑤ 梅孜主编：《美台关系重要资料选编：1948．11-1996．4》，第218-219页。
① 肖元恺著：《百年之结——美国与中国台湾地区关系的历史透视》，第187页。
① 如Lawrence Freedman and Efraim Karsh, The Gulf Conflict, 1990-1991: Diplomacy and War in the New World Order, Princeton, New Jersey: Princeton University Press, 1993; M. Weller, ed., Iraq and Kuwait." The Hostilities and Their Aftermath, Cambridge: Grotius Publications, 1993等。
② 如Anthony H. Cordesman and Abraham R. Wagner, The Lessons of Modern War: The Gulf War, Boulder, Colo.: Westview Press, 1996; Head, William and Earl H. Tilford, Jr., The Eagle in the Desert: Looking. Back on U. S. Involvement in the Persian Gulf War, Westport and London: Praeger, 1991等。
③ 如Dennis Van Vranken Hickey, United States-Taiwan Security lies: From Cold War to beyond Containment, Westport, C. T.: Praeger Publishers, 1993; Alex Danchev, ed., International Perspectives on the Gulf Conflict, 1990-91, Oxford: St. Martin's Press, 1994; Robert J Art and Patrick M. Cronin, eds., The United States and Coercive Diplomacy, Washington D.C.: United States Institute of Peace Press, 2003等。
① Jean Smith, George Bush's War, New York: Henry Holt, 1992, p. 14; George Bush and Brent Scowcroft, A World Transformed, New York: Knopf, 1998, p. 319.
① Jean Smith, George Bush's War, New York: Henry Holt, 1992, p. 14; George Bush and Brent Scowcroft, A World Transformed, New York: Knopf, 1998, p. 319.
② "Remarks and a Question-and-Answer Session with Reporters in Aspen, Colorado, Following a Meeting with Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher of the United Kingdom, August 2, 1990, Public Papers of the Presidents of the United States, George Bush, 1990, p. 1085.
③ Ihid.
④ 分析美国在海湾战争中决策过程的文章较多，例如Steve A．Yetiv，“Testing the Government Politics Model：U．S．Decision Making in the 1990-91Persian Gulf Crisis，”Security Studies，Vol．11，No．2，2001，pp．50-84．
① Lawrence Freedman and Efraim Karsh, The Gulf Conflict, 1990-1991: Diplomacy and War in the New World Order, Princeton, New Jersey: Princeton University Press, 1993, p. 76.
② Ibid.
③ "Message to the Congress on the Declaration of a National Emergency with Respect to Iraq," August 3, 1990, Public Papers of the Presidents of the United States, George Bush, 1990, p. 1095.
④ 贝内特等人认为，支持美国发动海湾战争的国家主要有英国、埃及、法国、德国、日本等，它们参与战争的行为可以同时用集体行动理论(Collective Action)、威胁平衡理论(Balance of Threat)和联盟依赖理论(Alliance Dependence)来解释。Andrew Bennett，Joseph Lepgold and Danny Unger，“Burden-Sharing in the Persian Gulf War，”Internationa，Organization，Vol．48，No．1，Winter 1994，pp．39-75．
⑤ Bush and Scoweroft, A Worm Transformed, p. 319.
⑥ E. Lauterpacht, ed., The Kuwait Crisis: Basic Documents, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1995, pp. 99-100.
⑦ John Pimlott and Stephen Badsey, The Gulf War Assessed, London: Arms and Armor Press, 1992, p. 136.
⑧ 除美国、苏联、英国、法国和中国五个安理会常任理事国外，海湾危机爆发时非常任理事国分别是：古巴、也门、加拿大、芬兰、哥伦比亚、埃塞俄比亚、马来西亚、科特迪瓦(象牙海岸)、扎伊尔和罗马尼亚。
① E. Lauterpacht, ed., The Kuwait Crisis: Basic Documents, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1995, pp. 99-100.
② John Pimlott and Stephen Badsey, The Gulf War Assessed, London: Arms and Armor Press, 1992, p. 136.
③ 除美国、苏联、英国、法国和中国五个安理会常任理事国外，海湾危机爆发时非常任理事国分别是：古巴、也门、加拿大、芬兰、哥伦比亚、埃塞俄比亚、马米西亚、科特迪瓦(象牙海岸)、扎伊尔和罗马尼亚。
④ Lauterpacht, ed., The Kuwait Crisis, pp.102-103．
⑤ Anthony H. Cordesman and Abraham R. Wagner, The Lessons of Modern War: The Gulf War, Boulder, Colo.: Westview Press, 1996, p.51.
⑥ Freedman and Karsh, The Gulf Conflict 1990-1991, p. 141.
⑦ "Statement by Press Secretary Fitzwater on Japanese Economic Sanctions Against lraq,"August 5, 1990, Public Papers of the Presidents of the United States, George Bush, 1990, p. 1100.
① Lauterpacht, ed., The Kuwait Crisis, pp. 108-109.
② Bush and Scowcroft, A World Transformed, p. 303.
③ Haim Bresheeth and Nira Yuval-Davis, eds., The Gulf War and the New World Order, London and New Jersey: Zed Books Ltd, 1991, p. 32.
④ Alex Danchdv and Dan Keohane, eds., International Perspective on the Gulf Conflict, 1990-1991, Oxford: St. Martin's Press, 1994, p. 138.
⑤ David Hoffman, "Coalition Diplomacy," in David Newsom, ed., The Diplomatic Record: 1990-1991, Boulder: Westview Press, 1992, p. 61.
① David Hoffman, "Coalition Diplomacy," in David Newsom, ed., The Diplomatic Record: 1990-1991, Boulder: Westview Press, 1992, p. 61.
② Freedman and Karsh, The Gulf Conflict 1990-1991, p. 78.
③ Lauterpacht, ed., The Kuwait Crisis., p. 103.
④ Nichol, Iraq-Kuwait Crisis, p. 2.
⑤ Freedman and Karsh, The Gulf Conflict1990-1991, p. 80.
⑥ Jim Nichol, Iraq-Kuwait Crisis: Soviet Response, Washington D.C.: Congressional Research Service, August 17, 1990, pp. 3-4.
⑦ William Head and Earl H. Tilford Jr., eds., The Eagle in the Desert, London and Westport: Praeger, 1996, p. 25.
⑧ Nichol, Iraq-Kuwait Crisis, p. 2.
① Bush and Scoweroft, A World Transformed, p. 314.
② James Blackwell, Thunder in the Desert: The Strategy and the Tactics of the Persian Gulf War, New York: Bantam Books, 1991, p. 86.
③ Freedman and Karsh, The Gulf Conflict 1990-1991, p. 86.
④ William Hale, "Turkey, the Middle East and the Gulf Crisis," International Affairs, Vol. 68, No. 4, 1992, p. 683.
⑤ Pimlott and Badsey, The Gulf War Assessed, p. 42.
⑥ Itamar Robinovieh, "External Pressures, Internal Strains-- The Middle East in 1990," the RUSIJournal, Winter 1990, p. 46.
⑦ Yezid Sayidh, "The Gulf Crisis: Why the Arab Regional Order Failed," International Affairs, Vol. 67, No. 3, 1991, pp. 487-507.
⑧ Pierre Salinger and Eric Laurent, Secret Dossier: The Hidden Agenda behind the Gulf War, London: Penguin Books, 1991, p. 31.
① Pierre Salinger and Eric Laurent, Secret Dossier: The Hidden Agenda behind the Gulf War, London: Penguin Books, 1991, p. 31.
② Head and Tilford, eds., The Eagle in the Desert, p. 29.
③ Woodward, The Commanders, p. 254.
④ H. Norman Schwarzkopf and Peter Petre, The Autobiography: It Doesn't TakeA Hero, London: Bantam Press, 1992, pp. 305-317.
⑤ "Address to the Nation Announcing the Deployment of US Armed Forces to Saudi Arabia, August 8, 1990, Public Papers of the Presidents of the United States, George Bush, 1990, p. 1107; Michah Sifry and Christopher Cerf, ed., The Gulf War Reader: History, Documents, Opinions, New York: Random House, 1991, pp. 197-199.
⑥ Woodward, The Commanders, pp. 255-276.
⑦ Jeseph P. Englehardt, Desert Shield and Desert Storm: A Chronology and Troop List for the 1990-1991 Persian Gulf Crisis, Carliscle, Pa.: Strategic Studies Institute, March 1991, p. 15.
① "Statement by Press Secretary Fitzwater on the Arab League's Statement on the Persian Gulf Crisis," August 10, 1990, Public Papers of the Presidents of the United States, George Bush, 1990, p. 1123.
② "Excerpts of a Statement by Press Secretary Fitzwater on the Persian Gulf Crisis," August 11, 1990, Public Papers of the Presidents of the United States, George Bush, 1990, p. 1124.
③ George C. Herring, America's Longest War: The United States and Vietnam, 1950-1975, New York: Knoll, 1986, p. 353.
④ Schwarzkopf and Petre, The Autobiography, PP. 317-320.
⑤ Department of Defense, Conduct of the Persian Gulf War: Final Report, Washington D.C.: GPO, 1992, p. 93.
⑥ Cordesman and Wagner, The Lessons of Modern War, p.82.
⑦ Robert H. Scales, Certain Victory, Washington D. C.: Office of the Chief of Staff of the US Army, 1993, pp.
① Cordesman and Wagner, The Lessons of Modern War, p.82.
② Robert H. Scales, Certain Victory, Washington D. C.: Office of the Chief of Staff of the US Army, 1993, pp. 142-145.
③ Bennett, Lepgnld and Unger, "Burden-Sharing in the Persian Gulf War," p. 56.
④ Cordesman and Wagner, The Lessons of Modern War, p.84.
⑤ Thomas A. Keaney and Eliot A. Cohen, GulfWarAir Power Survey: Summary Report, Washington D. C.: The Department of theAir Force, 1993, pp. 188-189.
⑥ Cordesman and Wagner, The Lessons of Modern War, pp.84-85.
① Englehardt，Desert Shield and Desert Storm，p．67．当然，不同文献对准联盟行为体总数和战斗人员人数的统计存在差别。据另一项统计，除美国外，共有28个国家提供了陆海空三军，战斗人数25.5万人，战舰64艘，飞机650架，坦克1300辆。参见Brent J．Talbot，Cooperative Security in the Era of US Primacy：Exloring the Leader-Follower Relationship During Coalition Operations，(A Dissertation)，Ann Arbor：UMI，2003，p．78．
② 德国的18架飞机全部部署在土耳其。
① "Address to the People of Iraq on the Persian Gulf Crisis," September 16, 1990, Public Papers of the Presidents of the United States, George Bush, 1990, p. 1239.
② "Remarks to Department of Defense Employees," August 15, 1990, Public Papers of the Presidents of the United States, George Bush, 1990, p. 1138.
③ "Excerpt of a Statement by Press Secretary Fitzwater on Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev's Endorsement of United States Economic Sanctions Against Iraq," August 25, 1990, Public Papers of the Presidents of the United States, George Bush, 1990, p. 1165.
④ Freedman and Karsh, The Gulf Conflict, 1990-1991, p. 228.
① 邢广程著：《苏联高层决策70年——从列宁到戈尔巴乔夫》(第五分册)，北京：世界知识出版社，1998年版，第291页。
② "Soviet Union-United States Joint Statement on the Persian Gulf Crisis," September 9, 1990, Public Papers of the Presidents of the United States, George Bush, 1990, p. 1203.
③ Freedman and Karsh, The Gulf Conflict, 1990-1991, p. 231.
④ Bush and Scowcroft, A World Transformed, pp. 403-404.
⑤ "Exchange with Reporters Prior to a Meeting with Presidents Mikhail Gorbachev of the Soviet Union in Paris France, November 19. 1990, Public Papers of the Presidents of the United States, George Bush, 1990, pp. 1645-1646.
⑥ "Lillian Craig Haris, "The Gulf Crisis and China's Middle East Dilemma," The Pacific Review, Vol. 4, No. 2, 1991, p. 65.
① "Lillian Craig Haris, "The Gulf Crisis and China's Middle East Dilemma," The Pacific Review, Vol. 4, No. 2, 1991, p. 65.
② 当然，有些国外学者认为中国同苏联郁是反伊统一战线的成员，只不过苏联是主动支持者，中国是被动支持者。参见Head and Tilford Jr．，eds．，The Eagle in the Desert，pp．32-33．
③ "Remarks and a Question-and-Answer Session with Reporters in Kennebunkport, Maine, Following a Meeting with Prime Minister Brian Mulroney of Canada," August 27, 1990, Public Papers of the Presidents of the United States, George Bush, 1990, p. 1166.
④ "The President's News Conference," November 30, 1990, Public Papers of the Presidents of the United States, George Bush, 1990, p. 1719.
⑤ "Statement by Press Secretary Fitzwater on Japanese Economic Sanctions Against Iraq," August 5, 1990, Public Papers of the Presidents of the United States, George Bush, 1990, p. 1100.
① Lawrence Freedman and Efraim Karsh, The Gulf Conflict, 1990-1991, p. 123.
② "Remarks at a Fundraising Luncheon for Cubernatorial Candidate Pete Wilson in San Francisco, California," September 19, 1990, Public Papers of the Presidents of the United States, George Bush, 1990, p. 1260.
③ Freedman and Karsh, The Gulf Conflict, 1990-1991, p. 118.
④ International Herald Tribune, September 10, 1990.
⑤ Cohen, ed., Gulf War Air Power Survey, p. 45.
⑥ See "Remarks at a Fundraising Luncheon for Cubernatorial Candidate Pete Wilson in San Francisco, California," September 19, 1990, Public Papers of the Presidents of the United States, George Bush, 1990, p. 1260; Bennett, Andrew, Joseph Lepgold and Danny Unger, "Burden-Sharing in the Persian Gulf War," p. 66.
① See "Remarks at a Fundraising Luncheon for Cubernatorial Candidate Pete Wilson in San Francisco, California," September 19, 1990, Public Papers of the Presidents of the United States, George Bush, 1990, p. 1260; Bennett, Andrew, Joseph Lepgold and Danny Unger, "Burden-Sharing in the Persian Gulf War," p. 66.
② International Institute for Strategic Studies, The Military Balance, 1991-1992, London: International Institute for Strategic Studies, 1991, p. 242.
③ New York Times, November 15, 1990.
④ Marcia Lynn Whicker, James P. Pfiffner and Raymond A. Moore, eds., The Presidency and the Persian Gulf War, Westport and London: Praeger, 1993, pp. 425-426.
① James R. Schlesinger, General David Jones and Admiral William Crove Jr., "Crisis in the Persian Gulf Region: US Policy Options and Implications," 101st Congress, 2nd Session, November 27-28, 1990, Congressional Record, 1990, Washington D.C.: GPO, 1992, pp.113-257.
② Ibid.
③ Ted Galen Carpenter, "US Policy in the Persian Gulf," December 1990, Congressional Record, 1990, p. 258.
④ James R. Schlesinger, etc., "Crisis in the Persian Gulf Region: US Policy Options and Implications," Congressional Record, 1990, p.116.
⑤ Michael Howard, "Why United Nations Sanctions Are Better than a Prolonged War, The Times, August 17, 1990.
⑥ Hermann Eilts, former US Ambassador to Egypt and Saudi Arabia, House Hearings, "Crisis in the Persian Gulf, "Congressional Record, 1990, p. 610.
⑦ Sam Nunn, "Crisis in the Persian Gulf Region: US Policy Options and Implications," Congressional Record, 1990, pp.113-257.
① Sam Nunn, "Crisis in the Persian Gulf Region: US Policy Options and Implications," Congressional Record, 1990, pp.113-257.
② "Statement by Press Secretary on President Bush's Telephone Conversations with Foreign Leaders, November 30, 1990, Public Papers of the Presidents of the United States, George Bush, 1990, p. 1729.
③ Bush and Scowcroft, A World Transformed, p. 446. Washington D. C.: GPO, 1991, pp.4-5.
① Ofra Bengio, Saddam Speaks on the Gulf Crisis: A Collection of Documents, Tel-Aviv: TeI-Aviv University Press, 1992, pp. 114-115.
② Bush and Scoweroft, A World Transformed, p. 329.
③ Freedman and Karsh, The Gulf Conflict, 1990-1991, p. 89.
④ "Remarks and an Exchange with Reporters on the Iraqi Invasion of Kuwait," August 5, 1990, Public Papers of the Presidents of the United States, George Bush, 1990, p. 1101.
⑤ Woodward, The Commanders, pp. 258-259.
① Pimlott and Badsey, The Gulf War Assessed, p. 42.
② Bush and Scowcroft, A Worm Transformed, pp. 321-325.
③ 这一术语的来源可参见Michael Brenner，“The Alliance：A Gulf Post-Mortem，”International Affairs，Vol．67，No．4，1991，p．674．
④ "Address to the Nation Announcing the Deployment of United States Armed Forces to Saudi Arabia," August 8, 1990, Public Papers of the Presidents of the United States, George Bush, 1990, p. 1108.
⑤ Bresheeth and Yuval-Davis, eds., The Gulf War and the New Worm Order, p. 253.
⑥ Bennett, Lepgold and Unger, "Burden-Sharing in the Persian Gulf War," p. 50.
① "Remarks and an Exchange with Reporters on the Iraqi Invasion of Kuwait," August 2, 1990, Public Papers of the Presidents of the United States, George Bush, 1990, p.1083.
② Bush and Scowcroft, A World Transformed, p. 319.
③ "Soviet Union- United States Joint Statement on the Persian Gulf Crisis," September 9, 1990, Public Papers of the Presidents of the United States, George Bush, 1990, p. 1204.
④ Danchev and Keohane, eds., International Perspective on the Gulf Conflict, 1990-1991, p. 136.
⑤ Pimlott and Badsey, The Gulf War Assessed, p. 50.
⑥ Hale, "Turkey, the Middle East and the Gulf Crisis," p. 684.
⑦ Freedman and Karsh, The Gulf Conflict 1990-1991, p. 6.
① Hale, "Turkey, the Middle East and the Gulf Crisis," p. 684.
② Freedman and Karsh, The Gulf Conflict 1990-1991, p. 6.
③ International Institute for Strategic Studies, The Military Balance, 1991-1992, p. 242.
④ Bennett, Lepgold and Unger, "Burden-Sharing in the Persian Gulf War," p. 58.
⑤ Head and Tilford, eds., The Eagle in the Desert, p. 31.
⑥ Bresheeth and Yuval-Davis, eds., The Gulf War and the New World Order, p. 9.
⑦ Pimlott and Badsey, The Gulf War Assessed, p. 52. 61.
① Edwin Fedder. "The Concept of Alliance," International Studies Quarterly, Vol. 12, No. 1,1986, p. 86.
② 也有学者认为，日本加入反伊准联盟除了维护石油利益外，还希望增加在国际上的影响力，特别是在亚洲的领导权。Talbot，Cooperative Security in the Era of US Primacy，p．224．
③ "Address Before a Joint Session of the Congress of the State of the Union, anuary 29, 1991, Public Papers of the Presidents of the United States, George Bush, 1991, Washington D. C.: United States GPO, 1992, p. 74.
④ Stephen M. Walt, The Origins of Alliances, Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 1987, p. 34.
⑤ Woodward, The Commanders, p. 407.
⑥ Leigh Bruce, "Britain's Dogged Attitudes," International Herald Tribune, January 31, 1991.
⑦ 当然，也有学者认为美国的盟友参与海湾战争主要是因为它们对美国的依赖(Dependence)大于它们对受到美国牵连的担心。参见Bennett，Lepgold and．Unger，“Burden-Sharing in the Persian Gulf War，”p．44．
⑧ Danchev and Keohan，eds．，International Perspectives on the Gulf Conflict，1990-91，p．187．
① 当然，也有学者认为美国的盟友参与海湾战争主要是因为它们对美国的依赖(Dependence)大于它们对受到美国牵连的担心。参见Bennett，Lepgold and Unger，“Burden-Sharing in the Persian Gulf War，”p．44．
② Danchev and Keohan, eds., International Perspectives on the Gulf Conflict, 1990-91, p. 187.
③ "Appendix," Public Papers of the Presidents of the United States, George Bush, 1990, p. 1832.
④ Viberto Selochan ed., The Gulf War: Issues and lmplications for Australia andAsia, Queensland: Griffith Univeristy Press, 1992, p. 32.
⑤ Sydney Morning Herald, January 24, 1991.
⑥ Mohammed Ayub Kahn, "The Pakistan-American Alliance: Stresses and Strains," Foreign Affairs, Vol. 42, January 1964, pp. 196-199.
① John Pimlott and Stephen Badsey, The Gulf War Assessed, p. 52.
② Haim Bresheeth and Nira Yuval-Davis, eds., The Gulf War and the New World Order, p. 81.
③ Danchev and Keohane, eds., International Perspective on the Gulf Conflict, 1990-1991, p. 140.
④ Woodward, The Commanders, p.338.
① Danchev and Keohane, eds., International Perspective on the Gulf Conflict, 1990-1991, p. 140.
② Woodward, The Commanders, p.338.
③ Lawrence E. Cline, "Defending the End: Decision Making in Terminating the Persian Gulf War," Comparative Strategy, Vol. 17, No. 4, 1998, p. 371.
④ 有限战争并不意味着“小战”。“有限”不仅体现在战争规模上，而且体现在政治目标上。有限战争主要有以下三个特征。一、从规模上来看，有限战争不是世界大战，它是在有限的地域范围内的一场局部战争；二、从政治目标来看，有限战争并不追求敌人无条件投降，或者将侵略者彻底打垮、消灭，而只追求有限的目标，如迫使敌人撤军、谈判等；三、从军事手段来看，有限战争选择使用一定的武器和打击目标。参见G．Van Rentham and Van der Bergh，“Limited War，”in Ervin Laszlo and Jong Youl Yoo．eds．，World Encyclopedia of Peace，Vol．1，Oxford：Pergamon Press，1986，pp．541-542．
⑤ George Bush, "Go the Extra Mile for Peace," International Herald Tribune, December 2, 1990.
⑥ Representative Les Aspin, "The Military Option: The Conduct and Consequences of War in the Persian Gulf," January 8, 1991, 101st Congress, 2nd Session, Congressional Record, Washington D.C.: GPO, 1992, p. 916.
⑦ "Address to the Nation Announcing Allied Military Action in the Persian Gulf," January 16, 1991, Public Papers of the Presidents of the United States, George Bush, 1991, pp. 43-44.
① Liska, Nations in Alliance, p. 13.
② "President Warns Israel, Criticizes US, April 1, 1990," in Ofra Bengio ed., Saddam Speaks on the Gulf Crisis: A Collection of Documents, pp. 50-61; Erairn Karsh and Inari Rautsi, Saddam Hussein: A Political Biography, London: Brassey's, 1991, pp. 207-211.
③ Washington Post, January 10, 1991.
① Washington Post, January 10, 1991.
② New York limes, September 25, 1990.
③ "Saddam Hussein's Speech on 'Linkage'," August 23, 1990, in Ofra Bengio ed., Saddam Speaks on the Gulf Crisis: A Collection of Documents, p. 125.
④ Danchev and Keohane, eds., International Perspective on the Gulf Conflict, 1990-1991, p. 72.
⑤ Salinger and Laurent, Secret Dossier, pp. 186-191.
① Ibid., p. 325.
② Freedman and Karsh, The Gulf Conflict, 1990-1991, p. 155.
③ Ibid., p. 159.
④ Bush and Scowcroft, A World Transformed, p. 406.
⑤ Freedman and Karsh, The Gulf Conflict, 1990-1991, p. 250.
① Freedman and Karsh, The Gulf Coflict, 1990-1991, p.250．
② 这里的“多边主义”(Multilateralism)是指众多国家为了共同利益和共同目标而采取的共同行动。参见Bertele and Mey,“Unilateralism in Theory and Practice，”p．198．
③ 军事科学院军事历史研究部：《海湾战争全史》，第147页。
① 反恐统一战线和意愿联合按照严格界定应该是“Coalition”而不是“Alliance”，因为二者不是根据正式盟约进行的安全合作，它们实际上属临时准联盟。
② 如Stephen Jukes, Under Fire: Untold Stories from the Front Line of the Iraq War, Upper Saddle River, NJ: Reuters Prentice Hall, 2004; James Carroll, Crusade: Chronicles of an Unjust War, New York: Metropolitan Books, 20o4等。
③ 如Williamson Murray and Robert H. Scales, Jr., The Iraq War: A Military History, Cambridge: The Belknap Press, 2003; Anthony H. Cordesman, The Iraq War: Strategy, Tactics, and Military Lessons, Washington D. C.: Center for Strategic and Interaational Studies Press, 2003等。
④ 如David Harvey, The New Imperialism, Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2003; Gerhard Beestermoller and David Little, eds., lraq: Threat and Response, London: Transaction Publishers, 2003等。
⑤ George F. Liska, Nations in Alliance: The Limits of Interdependence, Baltimore: Johns Hopkins Press, 1968, p. 21.
⑥ See Michael L. Silty and Christopher Cerf, eds., Iraq War Reader: History, Documents, Opinions, New York: Simon & Schuster, 2003; Weekly Compilation of Presidential Documents, Vol. 37-40, 2001-2004, Washington DC: United States GPO, 2001-2004.
⑦ See David From. The Right Man: The Surprise Presidency of George W. Bush, New York: Random House, 2003.
⑧ 本章中所提到的小布什指的是继克林顿之后入主白宫的George W．Bush。
⑨ 小布什曾经在许多场合提及萨达姆在海湾战争结束后曾企图暗杀具父杀布什。参见Saul Laudau，The Pre-emptive Empire：A Guide to Bush’s Kingdom，London：Pluto Press，2003，P．197．
① 本章中所提到的小布什指的是继克林顿之后入后白宫的George W．Bush。
② 小布什曾经在许多场合提及萨达姆在海湾战争结束后曾企图暗杀其父亲布什。参见Saul Laudau，The Pre-emptive Empire：A Guide to Bush’s Kingdom，London：Pluto Press，2003，p．197．
③ Condoleezza Rice, "Campaign 2000—Promoting the National Interest," Foreign Affairs, January/February 2000.
④ Frum, The Right Man, p. 224.
⑤ "Remarks prior to discussions with Prime Minister Bulent Ecevit of Turkey and an exchange with reporters," Weekly Compilation of Presidential Documents, Jan 21, 2002.Vol.38, Iss. 3, p. 75.
⑥ Bob Woodward, Plan of Attack, New York: Simon & Schuster, 2004, p, 86.
⑦ Ibid., p. 87.
① George W Bush, "Address before a joint session of the Congress on the State of the Union," Weekly Compilation of Presidential Documents, Washington: Feb 4, 2002.Vol.38, Iss. 5, p. 133.
② Ibid.
③ Suzanne Daley, "Many in Europe Voice Worry U.S. Will Not Consult Them," New York Times, Jan 31, 2002.
④ James Brooke, "South Korea and Japan Begin to Sweat After Bush Turns Up the Heat on North Korea," New York Times, Jan 31, 2002.
⑤ John Ward Anderson, "Angry Denials From the 'Axis'; Iran, Iraq and N. Korea Slam Bush Charges on Arms,
① Suzanne Daley, "Many in Europe Voice Worry U. S. Will Not Consult Them," New York Times, Jan 31, 2002.
② James Brooke, "South Korea and Japan Begin to Sweat After Bush Turns Up the Heat on North Korea," New York Times, Jan 31, 2002.
③ John Ward Anderson, "Angry Denials From the 'Axis'; Iran, Iraq and N. Korea Slam Bush Charges on Arms, Terror Support," The Washington Post, Jan 31, 2002.
④ George W Bush, "Remarks on arrival in Daytona Beach, Florida," Weekly Compilation of Presidential Documents, Washington: Feb 4, 2002, Vol. 38, Iss. 5, p. 148.
⑤ George W Bush, "Remarks to the Armed forces at Eglin Air Force base in Fort Walton Beach, Florida," Weekly Compilation of Presidential Documents, Feb 11, 2002.Vol.38, Iss. 6, p. 176.
⑥ Serge Schmemann, "At Least 17 Are Killed in lsraeli Raid at Palestinian Camp in Gaza," New York Times, Mar 12, 2002.
⑦ George W Bush and Tony Blair, "Remarks on the situation in the Middle East and an exchange with reporters in Crawford, Texas," Weekly Compilation of Presidential Documents, Apt 8, 2002, Vol.38, Iss. 14, p. 541.
⑧ Lawrence F. Kaplan and William Kristol, The War over Iraq: Saddam's Tyranny and America's Mission, San Francisco: Encounter Books, 2003, p. 85.
① Kaplan and Kristol, The War over Iraq, p. 89.
② Quadrennial Defense Report, September 30, 2001.
③ Gerhard Schroeder and George W. Bush, "The President's news conference with Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder of Germany in Berlin," Weekly Compilation of Presidential Documents, May 27, 2002, Vol.38, lss. 21, p. 875
④ Woodward, Plan ofAttack, p. 132.
⑤ George W Bush, "Commencement address at the United States Military Academy in West Point, New York," Weekly Compilation of Presidential Documents, Jun 10, 2002, Vol.38, Iss. 23, p. 944.
① Annual Report to the President and Congress, 2002. http:www.defenselink.mil/execsec/adr2002.
② The National Security of the United States of America, September 20, 2002. http:www.whitehouse.gov/
③ Ibid.
④ Frank Hoffman, "The Transformation of Defense and Proliferation Policies after September 11," http: www.cid.org/files
⑤ Jimmy Carter, "There Is No Current Danger to the United States," The Washington Post, September 5, 2002.
⑥ Kaplan and Kristol, The War over Iraq, p. 89.
⑦ James Dao, "Experts Warn of High Risk for American Invasion of Iraq," New York Times, August 1, 2002.
① 这里的单边主义(Unilateralism)是指国家在采取行动时尽可能保持自主性，限制与他国的合作，减少对第三方的承诺。单边主义有两类：消极单边主义(Passive Unilateralism)和积极单边主义(Active Unilateralism)，前者主要是指孤立主义，后者是指大国采取行动时无视弱小成员的反应和利益，本文主要是指后者。参见Mantled Bertele and Holger H．Mey，“Unilateralism in Theory and Practice，”Comparative Strategy，Vol．17，No．2，1998，pp．198-199．
② Lawrence F. Kaplan and William Kristol, The War over Iraq, p. 92.
③ The National Security of the United States of America, September 20, 2002. http://www.whitehouse.gov/
① The National Security of the United States of America, September 20, 2002. http://www.whitehouse.gov/
② Woodward, Plan of Attack, p. 150.
③ Ibid., p. 183.
④ George W Bush and Tony Blair, "Remarks prior to discussions with Prime Minister Tony Blair of the United Kingdom and an exchange with reporters at Camp David, Maryland," Weekly Compilation of Presidential Documents, Sep 16, 2002, Vol.38, Iss. 37, p. 1518.
⑤ George W Bush, "Address to the United Nations General Assembly in New York City," Weekly Compilation of Presidential Documents, Sep 16, 2002, Vol.38, Iss. 37. p. 1529.
① Woodward, Plan of Attack, p. 222.
② 王律文著：《伊接克战争》，香港：鼎城出版有限公司，2003年版，第104页。1441号决议的全文可参见附录部分。
③ George W Bush, "Remarks on the passage of a United Nations Secunty Council resolution on Iraq," Weekly Compilation of Providential Documents, Nov 11, 2002, Vol.38, Iss. 45, p. 2009.
④ 参见袁鹏：《伊拉克战争与世界政治主要矛盾》，载《现代国际关系》，2003年第5期。
① Richard W. Stevenson and James Dao, "Bush Says lraqis Are Still Resisting Demand to Disarm," New York Times, Jan 22, 2003.
② Julia Preston, "France, Backed by Germany, Calls for Stronger Inspections, but the U.S. Is Unmoved," New York Times, Feb 6, 2003; Laurent, Cohen-Tanugi, Translated by George A. Holoch Jr., An Alliance At Risk: The United States and Europe since September 11, Baltimore arid London: The Johns Hopkins University Press, 2003, p. xi.
③ George W Bush and John Howard, "Remarks following discussions with Prime Minister John Howard of Australia and an exchange with reporters," Weekly Compilation of Presidential Documents, Feb 17, 2003, Vol.39, Iss. 7. p. 184.
④ 苏长和：《帝国、超国家与东亚的未来》，载《国际观察》，2003年第2期，第1-2页。
⑤ Dominique Moisi, "Europe Must Not Retreat from America's Army," Financial Times, August 26. 2002.
① Dexter Filkins, "Turkey Backs United States Plans for Iraq," New York Times, Feb 6, 2003. p. A. 17
② "The Willing and Not So-Willing in Europe," Perspectives on World History and Current Events, March 2003. http://www.geocities.com/pwhce/willing.html.
① George W Bush, "Remarks prior to discussions with President Aleksander Kwasniewski of Poland and exchange with reporters," Weekly Compilation of Presidential Documents, Jan 20, 2003, Vol.39, Iss. 3, p. 64
② Woodward, Plan of Attack, p. 285; p. 296.
③ "The Willing and Not So-Willing in Europe," Perspectives on World History and Current Events, March 2003.http://www.geocities.com/pwhce/willing.html/
① Woodward, Plan of Attack, p. 315.
② George W Bush, "The President's new conference," Weekly Compilation of Presidential Documents, Mar 10, 2003. Vol.39, Iss. 10, p. 295.
③ 展学习著：《伊拉克战争》，北京：人民出版社，2004年版，第37页。
④ Woodward, Plan of Attack, pp. 313-315.
⑤ Sarah Anderson, Phyllis Bennis, and John Cavanagh, Coalition of the Willing or the Coalition of the Coerced: How the Bush Administration Influences Allies in Its War on Iraq, Washington DC: Institute for Policy Studies, 2003, p. 3.
⑥ Ibid., p. 4.
⑦ Glenn Frankel, "Chirac Fortifies Antiwar Caucus," Washington Post, Feb. 22, 2003.
① Colum Lynch, "Costa Rica Reprimands UN Envoy over lraq," Washington Post, Feb. 21, 2003.
② Woodward, Plan of Attack, p. 339.
③ George W Bush, "Remarks at Naval Station Mayport in Jacksonville," Weekly Compilation of Presidential Documents, Feb 17, 2003, Vol.39, Iss. 7, p. 200.
④ 王赓武、宫少朋主编：《伊战启示录》，新加坡：八方文化企业公司，2003年版，第32页。
① Sarah Anderson, Phyllis Bennis, and John Cavanagh, Coalition of the Willing or the Coalition of the Coerced, p. 10.
② Laurie Mylroie, Bush vs. Beltway: How the CIA and the State Department Tried to Stop the War on Terror, New York: Regan Books, 2003, p. 211.
③ Paul Rutherford, Weapons of Mass Persuasion, Toronto: University of Toronto Press, 2004, p. 39.
④ Mattew Rhodes, "Central Europe and Iraq: Balance, Bandwagon, or Bridge?" Orbis, Vol. 48, No. 3, 2004, p.423.
① Woodward, Plan of Attack, p. 356.
② 王律文著：《伊拉克战争》，香港：鼎城出版有限公司，2003年版，第185页。
③ George W Bush, "Statement of the Atlantic Summit: A vision for lraq and the Iraqi people," Weekly Compilation of Presidential Documents, Mar 24, 2003, Vol.39, lss. 12, p. 336.
① George W. Bush, "The Iraq War Begins: The Tyrant Will Soon Be Gone," in Michael U Silty and Christopher Cerf, eels., Iraq War Reader: History, Documents, Opinions, pp. 503-504.
② George W. Bush, "Address to the nation on Iraq," Weekly Compilation of Presidential Documents, March 24, 2003, Vol.39, Iss. 12, p. 342.
③ Williamson Murray and Robert H. Scales, Jr., The Iraq War: A Military History, Cambridge: The Belknap Press, 2003, p. 487; "Coalition of the Willing," Perspectives on World History and Current Events.
① Williamson Murray and Robert H. Scales, Jr., The lraq War: A Military History, Cambridge: The Belknap Press, 2003, p. 487; "Coalition of the Willing," Perspectives on World History and Current Events.
② Kaplan and Kristol, The War Over Iraq, pp.3-14.
③ Senator John McCain, "Iraq's Disarmament Is Impossible Without Regime Change," in Michael L. Sifry and Christopher Cerf, eds., Iraq War Reader: History, Documents, Opinions, pp. 370-377.
① George W. Bush, Remarks at West Point: "New Threats Require New Thinking," in Michael L. Sift), and Christopher Cerf, eds., Iraq War Reader: History, Documents, Opinions, p. 269; George W Bush, "Commencement address at the United States Military Academy in West Point," Weekly Compilation of Presidential Documents, Jun 10, 2002, Vol.38, Iss. 23, p. 944.
② Rice, "Why We Know Iraq Is Lying," in Sifry and Cerf, eds., Iraq War Reader, p. 451.
③ George W. Bush, "Address to the nation on Iraq," Weekly Compilation of Presidential Documents, Mar ch 24, 2003, Vol.39, lss. 12, p. 338.
④ 王逸舟：《伊拉克危机启示录》，载王赓武、宫少朋主编：《伊战启示录》，第7页。
⑤ Dick Cheney, "The Risks of Inaction are Far Greater Than Risk of Action," in Silty and Cerf, eds., Iraq War Reader, pp. 298-300.
⑥ John McCain, "Iraq's Disarmament Is Impossible Without Regime Change," in Sifry and Ceff, eds., Iraq War Reader, p. 370.
① 王逸舟：《伊拉克危机启示录》，载王赓武、宫少朋主编：《伊战启示录》，第7页。
② Dick Cheney, "The Risks of Inaction are Far Greater Than Risk of Action," in Silty and Ceil, eds., Iraq War Reader, pp. 298-300.
③ John McCain, "Iraq's Disarmament Is Impossible Without Regime Change," in Silty and Cerf, eds., Iraq War Reader, p. 370.
④ George W Bush, "Statement on the terrorist attack in Indonesia," Weekly Compilation of Presidential Documents. Oct 21, 2002, Vol.38, Iss. 42, p. 1754.
⑤ Woodward, Plan of Attack, pp. 362-363.
① Woodward, Plan of Attack, pp. 263-266.
② N. Banerjee, "Energy Companies Weigh Their Possible Future in Iraq," New York Times, Oct. 26, 2002; Jon Kraus Kevin J. McMabon and David M. Rank'in, Transformed by Crisis: The Presidency of George W. Bush and American Politics, New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2004, p. 171.
③ David Harvey, The New Imperialism, Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2003, p. 16.
④ Sarah Anderson, Phyllis Bennis, and John Cavanagh, Coalition of the Willing or the Coalition of the Coerced, pp. 8-9.
① David Harvey, The New Imperialism, Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2003, p. 16.
② Sarah Anderson, Phyllis Bennis, and John Cavanagh, Coalition of the Willing or the Coalition of the Coerced, pp.8-9.
③ 当然，对于中东欧国家来说，获得军事和经济援助也是它们选择追随英国政策的重要动力。例如，2003年3月，波兰获得了美国提供的贷款，从而确保了从美国购买48架F—16喷气式飞机的资会。波兰总统克瓦希涅夫斯基还公开声明：支持美国就是希望在伊拉克重建中占有一定的份额。Rhodes，“Central Europe and Iraq：Balance，Bandwagon，or Bridge?”pp．431-432．
④ Anderson, Bennis, and Cavanagh, Coalition of the Willing or the Coalition of the Coerced, p.9.
⑤ Paul Gilfeather, "Coalition of the Bribed, Bullied & Blind," Common Dreams, March 22, 2003.
⑥ Anderson, Bennis, and Cavanagh, Coalition of the Willing or the Coalition of the Coerced, p.9.
⑦ William D. Hartung and Michelle Ciarrocca, "Buying A Coalition." The Nation, March 17, 2003.
① 关于“特殊关系”，有学者认为它应具有以下十个特征：一、透明性(Transparency)：二、随意性(Informality)：三、普遍性(Generality)；四、相互性(Riciprocity)：五、排他性(Exclusivity)：六、秘密性(Clandesfinity)：七、可靠性(Reliability)；八、长期性(Durability)：九、潜在性(Potentiality)：十、神秘性(Mythicality)。英美特殊关系无疑是其中的典型。参见Alex Danchev,“On Specialness，”International Affairs，Vol．72，No．4，1996，p．743．
② Woodward，Plan of Attack，p．337．
③ John Dumbrell，A Secial Relationship：Anglo-American Relations in the Cold War and After，New York：St．Martin's Press，2001，p．1．两国战后建立起来的情报关系成为维系特殊关系的重要纽带。参见Richard J．Aldrich，“British Intelligence and the Anglo-American‘Special Relationship’during the Cold War,”Review of International Studies，Vo．24，No．3，1998，pp．331-351．
④ [美]迈克尔．H．亨特著，褚律元译：《意识形态与美国外交政策》，北京：世界知识出版社，1999年版，第51页。
⑤ Barry Rubin and Thomas A. Keaney, eds., US Allies in A Changing World, London: FRANK CASS, 2001, p. 92.
⑥ Bulent Gokay and R. B. J. Walker, 11 September 2001: War, Terror and Judgment, London and Portland: FRANK CASS. 2003. p.111.
① [美]迈克尔·H·亨特著，褚律元译：《意识形态与美国外交政策》，北京：世界知识出版社，1999年版，第51页。
② Barry Rubin and Thomas A. Keaney, eds., US Allies in A Changing World, London: FRANK CASS, 2001, p. 92.
③ Bulent Gokay and R. B. J. Walker, 11 September 2001: War, Terror and Judgment, London and Portland: FRANK CASS, 2003, p.111.
④ Peter L. Bergen, Holy War, Inc.: Inside the Secret World of Osama bin Laden, London: Weidenfeld and Nicolson, 2001, pp. 19-24.
⑤ Gokay and Walker, 11 September 2001, pp. 110-1.11.
⑥ Speech by British Prime Minister Tony Blair at the Lord Mayor's Banquet, Nov. 12, 2001. http://www.number 10.gov.uk/news.asp?newsld=2996.
① Liska, Nations in Alliance, p. 77.
② The White House, Operation Iraqi Freedom, March 21, 2003. http://www.whitehouse/gov/nes/releases/2003/03/20030321-4html
③ George W Bush, "Remarks at MacDill Air Force Base in Tampa, Florida," Weekly Compilation of Presidential Documents, Mar 31, 2003, Vol.39, Iss. 13, p. 379.
④ Dan Balz and Mike Allen, "U. S. Names 30 Countries Supporting War Effort," Washington Post, March 19, 2003.
① Dan Balz and Mike Allen, "U. S. Names 30 Countries Supporting War Effort," Washington Post, March 19, 2003.
② Sarah Anderson, Phyllis Bennis and John Cavanagh, Coalition of the Willing or the Coalition of the Coerced, p. 1.
③ Ibid., p. 2.
④ Erik Leaver and Sara Johnson, "Human Rights Records of Coalition Countries," Institute for Policy Studies, Foreign Policy in Focus Project, March 24, 2003. http://www.ips-dc.org.html
① "A Coalition of Willing?" Misnomer, February 11, 2003.http://www.nusbiner.dru.ca/2OO3/02/11/a_coalition of the willing.html/
② Woodward, Plan of Attack. p. 366.
③ “影子准盟友”的成员情况目前主要依据西方材料，具体情况还有待相关一手资料的解密。Murray and Scales，The Iraq War，p．487．
① Paolo Pasicolan and Carrie Satterlee, "Coalition of the Willing Already Larger Than 1991 Gulf War Coalition," The Heritage Foundation, March 19, 2003.
② Ibid.
③ Michael Dobbs, "U. S. -Saudi Alliance Appears Strong," Washington Post, Apr 27, 2003.
④ "Arab States Line Up behind Iraq," BBC News (World Edition), March 25, 2003. http://www.news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middleeast/2882851.stm.
⑤ George W. Bush, "The President's radio address," Weekly Compilation of Presidential Documents, February 17, 2003, Vol.39, Iss. 7, p. 175.
⑥ ibid., March 10, 2003, Vol.39, Iss. 10, p. 295.
① George W. Bush, "The President's radio address," Weekly Compilation of Presidential Documents, February 17, 2003, Vol.39, Iss. 7, p. 175.
② Ibid., March 10, 2003, Vol.39, Iss. 10, p. 295.
③ Kirsten Aiken, "Spain Withdraws Iraq War Support Following Madrid Bombings," The World Today, March 16,2004.
④ Liska, Nations in Alliance, p. 103.
⑤ David E. Sanger, "Blow to Bush: Ally Rejected," New York Times, March 15, 2004.
⑥ Gustavo Palencia, "Spain, Honduras to Pull out Troops. and Thais Look Shaky," Common Dreams, December 9, 2004.
① "Countries Supporting Ops in Iraq," Global Security, March 21, 2005.http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/ops/iraq_coaliton.htm
① Ole R. Holsti, Unity and Disintegration in International Alliances: Comparative Studies, New York: John Wiley & Sons, 1973, pp. 52-53.
② 从此图可看出，影响国家目标选择的有多元因素，安全威胁和发展利益是主要影响因素，意识形态与文化认同是次要影响因素。地缘政治和权力变化因素常常成为安全威胁与发展利益判断的一部分，它们使决策者在下列四个选项中进行权衡：一、消极中立，即被动地采取中立政策，并有条约作保证，如近代以来的瑞士和奥地利(上述困素影响力比较有限)；二、积极中立，即国家主动地采取中立政策，如决策者声明采取中立政策，但没有条约作保证；三、结盟，即国家与他国建立密切的安全合作关系，并有盟约作保证，如美日关系；四、准结盟，即国家在一定限度内同他国建立安全合作关系，同时没有盟约作保证，如美国和以色列。这里“积极中立”的概念可能首先由利斯卡提出，参见George F．Liska，Nations in Alliance：The
① 从此图可看出，影响国家目标选择的有多元因素，安全威胁和发展利益是主要影响因素，意识形态文化认同是次要影响因素。地缘政治和权力变化因素常常成为安全威胁与发展利益判断的一部分，它们使决策者在下列四个选项中进行权衡：一、消极中立，即被动地采取中立政策，并有条约作保证，如近代以来的瑞士和奥地利(上述因素影响力比较有限)：二、积极中立，即国家主动地采取中立政策，如决策者声明采取中立政策，但没有条约作保证；三、结盟，即国家与他国建立密切的安全合作关系，并有盟约作保证，如美日关系；四、准结盟，即国家在一定限度内同他国建立安全合作关系，同时没有盟约作保证，如美国和以色列。这里“积极中立”的概念可能首先由利斯卡提出，参见George F．Liska，Nations in Alliance：The Limits of Interdependence，Baltimore：Johns Hopkins Press，1968，pp．203—204．“消极中立”是本人在“积极中立”概念基础上归纳提出的。本文其他处挺到的中立一律特指“积极中立”。
① [德]马克斯·韦伯著．胡景北译：《社会学的基本概念》，上海：上海人民出版社，2000年版，第1页。
① [德]马克斯·书伯著，胡景北译：《社会学的基本概念》，上海：上海人民出版社，2000年版，第1页。
① The National Security of the United States of America, September20, 2002. http://www.whitehouse.gov/
② 理查德·N．哈斯著，陈谣遥、荣凌译：《规制主义——冷战后的美国全球战略》，北京：新华出版社 1999年版，第100页。 年版，第100页。
① 张文木：《大国崛起的历史经验与中国的选择》，载《战略与管理》，2004年第2期，第70页。
① 洪明：《重振河山待后生——中日关系的过去、现在和将来》，载《战略与管理》，2004年第1期，第57
② 时殷弘认为，未来中国可供选择的三大战略是自助、不出头和搭车。自助主要是指“独立自主”，不出头主要是指“韬光养晦”，搭车主要是指“与大国及国际机制合作”。参见时殷弘：《国际政治的世纪性规律及其对中国的启示》，载《战略与管理》，1995年第5期，第2页。
① 较为系统阐述中立概念及中立政策的文章有：Francis Low-Beer，“The Concept of Neutralism，”The American Political Science Review，Vol．58，No．2，1964，pp 383-391；Michael Breche “Neulralism：An Analysis，” Iternational Journal，Vol．42，No．1，1963，pp．224-236．
② Raymond则认为，中立就是一国不卷入其他国家之间冲突的一种法律姿态(Legal status)。参见Gregory A．Raymond，“Neutrality Norms and lhe Balance of Power，”Cooperation and Conflict Vol．32．No．2，1997，p．125．
① Ernest Lefever, "Nehru, Nasser, and Nkrumah on Neutralism," in Laurence Martin ed., Neutralism and Nonalignment. New York: Frederick A. Praeger, 1962, p. 95.
② 当然，辛格认为，“中立协定”也是联盟关系建立的标志，如《苏德互不侵犯条约》的签订标志着斯大林与希特勒建立了联盟关系，这种观点值得商榷，因为“中立协定”与“北同防御条约”存在本质上的区别。
③ Michael Donelan, Elements of International Political Theory, Oxford: Clarendon Press, 1992, p. 123.
④ Samir N. Anabtawi, "Neutralists and Neutralism," The Journal of Politics, Vol. 27, No. 2, 1965, p. 354.
① Samir N. Anabtawi, "Neutralists and Neutralism," The Journal of Politics, Vol. 27, No. 2, 1965, p. 354.
② 《邓小平文选》(第三卷)，北京：人民出版社，1999年版，第57页。
③ Ole R. Holsti, Unity and Disintegration in International Alliances, p. 2.
④ Barry Rubin and Thomas A. Keaney, eds., US Allies inA Changing World, London: FRANK CASS, 2001, p. 4.
⑤ Hans J. Morgenthau and Kenneth W. Thompson, Politics Among Nations: The Struggle for Power and Peace, New Delhi: Kalyani Publishers, 1985, p. 22.
① 关于中国与国际机制的关系问题可参见刘杰著：《机制化生存：中国和平崛起的战略选择》，北京：新华出版社，2004年版。
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倪世雄等著：《当代西方国际关系理论》，上海：复旦大学出版社，2001年版。
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潘光、余建华、王健主编：《犹太民旅复兴之路》，上海：上海社会科学院出版社，1997年版。
潘叔明著：《“一国两制”与台湾问题》，北京：人民出版社，2003年版。
沈伟烈、陆俊元、孙建军著：《国家安全地理》，北京：时事出版社，1995年版。
申钟编著：《战后中东四次战争》，上海：上海人民出版社，1978年版。
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苏格著：《美国对华政策与台湾问题》，北京：世界知识出版社，1998年版。
孙哲等著：《美国国会与中美关系》，北京：新华出版社，2004年版。
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唐正瑞著：《中美棋局中的台湾问题：1969．1～1999．12》，上海：上海人民出版社，2000年版
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陶文钊主编：《中美关系史，1949～1972》，上海：上海人民出版社，2000年版。
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陶文钊、杜瑞清、王旭著：《中美关系与东亚国际格局》，北京中国社会科学出版社，2003年版。
外交部外交史编辑室主编：《研究周恩来—一外交思想与实践》．北京：世界知识出版社，1989年版。
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王缉思：《文明与国际政治——中国学者评亨廷顿的文明冲突论》，上海：上海人民出版社，1995年版。
王杰主编：《国际机制论》，北京：新华出版社2002年版。
王景弘主编：《中美关系的轨迹》，台北：联经出版事业公司，1987年版。
王京烈编著：《面向二十一世纪的中东》，北京：社会科学文献出版社，1999年版。
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王明亮著《“沙漠风暴”行动——海湾战争纪实》，北京：世界知识出版社，1997年版。
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汪熙编：《中美关系史论丛》，上海：复旦大学出版社，1985年版。
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王永钦主编：《太平洋上空的彩虹》，北京：中央文献出版社，1998年版。
王晓德著：《美国文化与外交》，北京：世界知识出版社，2000年版。
卫林主编：《第二次世界大战后国际关系大事记》，北京：中国社会科学出版社，1983年版。
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项立领主编：《中美关系史全编》，上海：华东师范大学出版社，2002年版。
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萧新煌著：《台湾问题》，台北：二理出版社，1987年版。
肖元恺著：《百年之结——美国与中国台湾地区关系的历史透视》，北京：人民出版社，2001年版。
谢力夫著：《中东战争》，北京：世界知识出版社，1994年版。
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王永钦主编：《太平洋上空的彩虹》，北京：中央文献出版社，1998年版。
王晓德著：《美国文化与外交》，北京：世界知识出版社，2000年版。
卫林主编：《第二次世界大战后国际关系大事记》，北京：中国社会科学出版社，1983年版。
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项立领主编：《中美关系史全编》，上海：华东师范大学出版社，2002年版。
萧冬连著：《五十年国事纪要》(外交卷)，长沙：湖南人民出版社，1999年版。
萧新煌著：《台湾问题》，台北：二理出版社，1987年版。
肖元恺著：《百年之结——美国与中国台湾地区关系的历史透视》，北京：人民出版社，2001年版。
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徐向群、余崇健著：《第三圣殿——以色列的崛起》，上海：上海远东出版社，1994年版。
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杨灏城、江淳著：《纳赛尔和萨达特时代的埃及》，北京：商务印书馆，1997年版。
杨基铨主编：《台湾关系法二十年》，台北：前卫出版社，1999年版。
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杨曼苏主编：《以色列——谜一般的国家》，北京：世界知识出版社，1992年版。
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叶进、李长久著：《里根》，杭州：浙江人民出版社，1989年版。
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殷罡、秦海波主编：《萨达姆，注定要震惊世界的人》，北京：警官教育出版社，1990年版。
袁文靖主编：《里根政府对华政策》，台北：国际形势周刊社，1984年版。
[美]约翰·米尔斯海默著，王义桅、唐小松译：《人国政治的悲剧》，上海：上海人民出版社，2003年版。
夏保成著：《国家安全论》，长春：长春出版社，1999年版。
翟晓敏著：《冷战后的美国军事战略》，北京：国防大学出版社，1999年版。
[美]詹姆斯·多尔蒂，小罗伯特·普法尔茨格拉夫著，阎学通、陈寒溪等译：《争论中的国际关系理论》，北京：世界知识出版社，2003年版。
展学习著：《伊拉克战争》，北京：人民出版社，2004年版。
张春华等著：《一路坎坷的犹太人》，北京：时事出版社，1997年版。
张富美主编：《台湾问题讨论集》，台北：前卫出版社，1989年版。
张贺福、孔圣根著：《犹太民族不灭之谜》，北京：解放军文艺出版社，1994年版。
张景旭著：《台湾问题：中美关系的焦点》，福州：福建人民出版社，1999年版。
张山克编：《台湾问题大事记：1948．8～1987．12》，北京：华文出版社，1988年版。
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赵国忠主编：《海湾战争后的中东格局》，北京：中国社会科学出版社，1995年版。
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何文胜：《浅析国际关系中的权力平衡问题》，载《解放军外语学院学报》，1997年第2期。
胡剑萍、江涌：《全球化进程中的国家安全选择》，载《国际论坛》，2002年第7期。
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Daalder, Ivo H., and Robert Kagan, "The 'Allies' Must Step Up," Washington Post, June 20, 2004.
Dobbs, Michael, "US-Saudi Alliance Appears Strong," Washington Post, April 27. 2003.
Fuerth, Leon, "Alliances for the Next Generation", Washington Post, August 23, 2002.
Kissinger, Henry A., "Role Reversal and Alliance Realities," Washington Post, February 10, 2003.
Loeb, Vernon, "US Military Will Leave Saudi Arabia This Year," Washington Post, April 30, 2003.
Mann, Jim. "U. S. Has Secretly Expanded Military Ties with Taiwan, "Los Angles Times, July 24,
Daalder, Ivo H., and Robert Kagan, "The 'Allies' Must Step Up," Washington Post, June 20, 2004.
Dobbs, Michael, "US-Saudi Alliance Appears Strong," Washington Post, April 27, 2003.
Fuerth, Leon, "Alliances for the Next Generation", Washington Post, August 23, 2002.
Kissinger, Henry A., "Role Reversal and Alliance Realities," Washington Post, February 10, 2003.
Loeb, Vernon, "US Military Will Leave Saudi Arabia This Year," Washington Post, April 30, 2003.
Mann, Jim, "U. S. Has Secretly Expanded Military Ties with Taiwan, "Los Angles Times, July 24, 1999.
Marquis, Christopher, "For Allies, 'I Do' Becomes 'Hey, Want to Dance?'" New York Times, April 14, 2002.
http://www.israel.org//jsource//US-Israel//polls.html(美以关系)
http://www.us-israel.org//jsource//US-lsrael/presquole.himl(美以关系)
http://www.fas.org//asmp.html(美国对以军售情况)
http://www.cdi.org//sc//javaclock.html(世界各国国防与开支情况)
http://www.state.gov//aboutstatedepartment/history//frusonline.html(美国外交档案)
② William H. Riker, The Theory of Folitical Coalitions, CT: Yale University, Press, 1962, pp. 32-33.
① 本文中的国际实体系指那些在国际上有独立行为能力的国际政治实体，它包括主权国家和非主权政治实体，后者如中国台湾、中国香港等。
② 关于这一概念的提出可参见孙德刚：《论约翰逊政府时期美以‘准联盟’关系的形成》，载《中东研究》，2003年第2期，第30页：《国际关系中准联盟现象初探》，载《西亚非洲》，2005年第4期，第29页。
③ Samuel P. Huntington, "America's Changing Strategic Interests," Survival, Vol. 33, No. 1, 1991, p. 6.
① Michael Donelan, Elements of International Political Theory, Oxford: Clarendon Press, 1992, p. 121. 汉语中联盟的含义比较宽泛，往往有不同的内涵，如东南亚国家联盟(Association)、欧洲联盟(Union)、国际联盟(League)、反恐联盟(Coalition)等，本章主要探讨国际安全领域中的联盟(Alliance)理论。另外，有些学者也用“同盟”一词，为行文统一，本文一律使用“联盟”一词。
② [美]兹比格纽·布热律斯基著，中国国际问题研究所译：《大棋局——美国的首要地位及其地缘战略》，上海：上海人民出版社，1998年版，第36页。
③ Francis A. Beer, ed., Alliances: Latent War Communities in the Contemporary World, New York: Holt, Rinehart and Winston, 1970, p. 4.
④ George Liska, Nations in Alliance: The Limits of Interdependence, Baltimore: Johns Hopkins Press, 1968, p.116.
⑤ William C. Olson, The Theory and Practice of International Relations, 7th ed., New Jersey: Englewood Cliffs, 1987, p. 174.
① See Stephen M. Walt, The Origins of Alliances, Ithaca: Cornell University press, 1987; D. Scott Bennett, "Testing Alternative Models of Alliance Duration, 1816-1984,"American Journal of Political Science. Vol. 41. No.3, 1997,pp. 846-878．沃尔特主要探讨了联盟形成的主要原因：贝内特主要考察了联盟解体(以及存在)的内存动力。
② See Mancur Olson Jr., The Logic of Collective Action: Public Goods and the Theory of Groups, Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1971.
③ See David J. Singer, ed., Quantitative International Politics: Insights and Evidence, New York: Free Press, 1968.
④ Richard E. Neustadt, Alliance Politics, Columbia: Columbia University Press, 1970, p. 1.
⑤ Jack S. Levy, "Alliance Formation and War Behavior: An Analysis of the Great Powers, 1495-1975," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 25, No. 4, 1981, p. 582.
① Julian R., Christopher Bidden and Stevcn Rosen, eds., Alliance in International Politics, Boston, Mass.: Allyn and Bacon, Inc., 1970, p. 25.
② Arnold Wolfers, Discord and Collaboration: Essays on International Politics, Baltimore: The Johns Hopkins Press, 1967, pp. 183-189.
③ Hans J. Morgenthau and Kenneth W. Thompson, Politics among Nations: The Struggle for Power and Peace, 7th ed., New Delhi: Alfred A. Knopf, 1985, p. 213.
④ 集体安全与联盟区别的示意图可参见Hans J．Morgenthau and Kenneth W. Thompson, Politics among Nations, p.456.
⑤ Arnold Wolfers, "Alliances," in David L. Sillls, ed., International Encyclopedia of Social Sciences, New York: Macmillan press, 1968, p. 270; Hans J. Morgenthau and Kenneth W. Thompson, Politics among Nations, p. 311.
⑥ Julian R. Friedman, Christopher Biaden and Steven Rosen, eds., Alliance in International Politics, p. 25.
⑦ 系统论述联盟与集体安全关系的论著并不多，可参见Tunde Adeniran, Introduction to International Relations, Yaba Lagos：Macmillan, 1983, Chapter 18, pp. 129-134．
① Arnold Wolfers, "Alliances," in Sills, ed., International Encyclopedia of Social Sciences, pp. 269-272.
② Martin Wight, Power Politics, Leicester, UK: Leicester University Press, 1978, p. 122.
③ Edwin Fedder, "The Concept of Alliance," International Studies Quarterly, Vol. 12, No. 1, 1968, p. 67.
④ Liska, Nations in Alliance, pp. 12-13.
⑤ Ibid., pp. 5-13.
⑥ Woosang Kim, "Power, Alliance, and Major Wars, 1816-1975,"Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 33, No. 2, 1989, p. 255.
⑦ Charles W. Kegley and Gregory A. Raymond, "Alliance Norms and War:A New Piece in an Old Puzzle," in J. David Singer and Richard J. Stoll, eds., Quantitative Indicators in World Politics, New York: Praeger, 1984,p. 573.
① David Singer and Melvin Small, "Alliance Aggregation and the Onset of War," in Francis A. Beer, ed., Alliances: Latent War Communities in the Contemporary World, New York: Holt, Rinehart and Winston, 1970; Mancur Olson Jr. and Richard Zeckhauser, "An Economic Theory of Alliances," Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 48, No. 3,1966. 在考察联盟与战争之间关系的研究成果中，多数学者采用量化分析方法，以找出二者之间内在的关联。可参见Douglas M. Gibler and John A. Vasquez, "Uncovering the Dangerous Alliances, 1495-1980," International Studies Quarterly, Vol. 42, No. 4, 1998, pp. 785-807．对这种研究方法提出批评的是史密斯。他认为，盟友之间安全承诺的可信度减小可能会诱发潜在敌人发动战争。另外，联盟的攻防态势也影响战争。一方面，防御性联盟的存在能够鼓励受到威胁的国家采取抵抗措施，这增加了爆发战争的可能性：另一方面，防御性联盟的存在又能够对潜在对手起到威慑作用，从而又抑制了战争的爆发。所以史密斯认为，以往关于联盟与战争频率关系的研究存在问题。Alastair Smith, "Alliance Formation and War," International Studies Quarterly, Vol. 39, No. 4, 1995, p. 419.
② Hans J. Morgenthau and Kenneth W. Thompson, Politics among Nations, pp. 198-213 ; Hans J. Morgenthau, "Alliances in Theory and Practice", in Arnold Wolfers, ed., Alliance Policy in the Cold War, Baltimore, MD: The Johns Hopkins Press, 1959, pp. 213-217.
③ Hans J. Morgenthau and Kenneth W. Thompson, Politics among Nations, pp. 201-202.
④ Gen. Wesley Clark, "America's Virtual Empire," Washington Monthly, November 2003.http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/features/2003/0311.clark.html.
① Hans J. Morgenthau and Kenneth W. Thompson, Politics among Nations, pp. 203-204.
② [美]约翰·米尔斯海默著，王义桅、唐小松译：《大国政治的悲剧》，上海：上海人民出版社，2003年版，第60页。
③ Edwin Fedder,“The Concept of Alliance," p.71.
④ 关于国际关系中的知觉与错觉对国家决策行为的影响可参见Robert Jervis, Perception and Misperception in International Politics, Princeton, N. J.: Princeton University Press, 1976.
⑤ Hans J. Morgenthau and Kenneth W. Thompson, Politics among Nations, pp. 201-203．
⑥ Arnold Wolfers. ed., Alliance Policy in the Cold War, p. 270.
⑦ Alexander Wendt, Social Theory of International Politics, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press,1999, p. 124.也可参阅孙德刚：《攻防态势与政治联合的最佳规模》，载《外交评论》．2006年第2期。
① Julian R. Friedman, Christopher Bladen and Steven Rosen, eds., Alliance in International Politics, p. 95.
② Ibid., pp. 21-22.
③ Pierre M. Gallois, "U. S. Strategy and the Defense of Europe"，Obis, Vol. Ⅶ. No. 2, Summer 1963, pp. 226-249;Henry A. Kissinger, The Troubled Partnership, Greenwood Press, 1982, pp. 11-13.两人都认为，核武器使大国具有了强大的威慑能力，盟友的战略作用下降，同时盟友不会为了信守承诺而冒与敌人同归于尽的风险，因此传统的联盟从实质来看已经过时了，至少作用和功能已大大降低。关于这一点，利斯卡在20世纪60年代也有过相似的论述，他认为：“在多极体系下，只要大国具有强大的核能力与远程投送工具，联盟就会成为不必要的东西。”参见George F. Liska, Nations in Alliance: The Limits of Interdependence, p. 272.
④ See William H. Riker, The Theory of Political Coalition, New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 1962.
⑤ See Robert L. Rothstein, Alliances and Small Powers, New York: Columbia University Ptess, 1968.
⑥ G. R. Berridge, International Politics: States, Power and Conflict since 1945, New York: Prentice Hall, 1997, p. 175.
⑦ See Mancur Olson Jr. and Richard Zeckhauser, "An Economic Theory of Alliances."
① Todd Sander, "The Economic Theory of Alliances: A Survey," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 37, No. 3, September 1993, p. 446.
② Glenn Palmer, "Corralling the Free Rider: Deterrence and the Western Alliance," International Studies Quarterly, Vol. 34. No.1, p. 162.
③ 有学者将物品分为三类：公共物品、私有物品和模糊物品，参见John G. Head and Carl S. Shoup, "Public Goods, Private Goods, and Ambiguous Goods," The Economic Journal, Vol. 79, No. 315, 1969, p. 567.
④ Todd Sandier, and Jon Cauley, "On The Economic Theory of Alliances," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 19, No. 2, 1975, pp. 330-332.
⑤ T. Sandler, "The Economic Theory of Alliances: Realized," in C. Liske, W. Loehr and J. McCamant, eds., Comparative Public Policy: Issues, Theories, and Methods, New York: Wiley, 1975, pp. 223-226.
⑥ Avery Goldstein, "Discounting the Free Ride: Alliances and Security in the Postwar World," International Organization, Vol. 49, No. 1, Winter 1995, pp. 68-69.
⑦ Glenn Palmer, and J Sky David, "Multiple Goals or Detterence: A Test of Two Models in Nuclear and Nonnuclear Alliances, The Joural of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 43, No. 6, 1999, pp. 751-754.
① Rothstein, Alliances and Small Powers, p. 55.
② Kenneth Waltz, Theory of International Politics, Mass.: Addison Wesley, 1979, pp. 117-118; p. 126.
③ Walt, The Origins of Alliances, pp. 274-275.
④ Waltz, Theory of International Politics, p. 126.
① Walt, The Origins of Alliances, pp. 17-49.
② 尽管威胁的大小与地缘临近性之间存在重要关联，但结盟与地缘临近性之间并不存在必然的联系。参见K. J. Holsti, "Diplomatic Coalition and Military Alliances", in Julian R. Friedman, Christopher Bladen and Steven Rosen, eds, Alliance in International Politics, p. 8.
③ 这还表现在沃尔特撰写的两篇文章中，可参见Stephen M. walt, "Testing Theories of Alliance Formation: The Case of Southeast Asia," International Organization, Vol. 43, No.1, Spring 1992, pp, 448-482; Stephen M. Walt, "Alliance, Threats, and U. S. Grand Strategy: A Reply to Kaufman and Labs," Security Studies, Vol. 1, No. 1,Spring 1992, pp. 448-482.
④ Erick Gartzke and Kristian S. Gleditsch, "Balancing, Bandwagoning, Bargaining, and War," March 2002, pp. 4-5. http://www.essex.ac.uk/ecpr/events/jointsessions/paperarchive/edinburgh/ws9/GleditschGartzke.pdf.
⑤ Glenn H. Snyder, "Alliances, Balances and Stability," International Organization, Vol. 45, No. 1, 1991, pp.121-142.
① Chong Ja Ian, Revisiting Responses to Power Preponderance: Going Beyond the Balancing-Bandwagoning Dichotomy, Singapore: Institute of Defense and Strategic Studies, 2003, pp. 10-14; 汪伟民：《联盟理论与美国的联盟战略》(复旦大学博士论文)，2005年4月，第180—183页。
② Ibid., p. 10.
③ Wendt, Social Theory of International Politics, pp. 17-18.
④ [美]米尔斯海默著：《大国政治的悲剧》，第203、219页。
⑤ David Priess, "Balance-of-threat Theory and the Genesis of the Gulf Cooperation Council," Security Studies, Vol. 5, No. 4, 1996, pp. 143-171; Scott Cooper, "State-Centric Balance-of-Threat Theory: Explaining the Misunderstood Gulf Cooperation Council," Security Studies, Vol. 13, No. 2, 2003, pp. 306-349. 库帕的观点与罗伯特·罗思坦关于小国与联盟的观点较为接近。罗思坦也认为，小国不仅关注外来威胁，而且关注国内稳定。
① Randall L. Schweller, "Neorealism's Status-Quo Bias: What Security Dilemma?".in Benjamin Frankel, ed., Realism: Restatements and Renewal, London: Frank Cass, 1996, pp. 90-121; Randall L, Schweller, "Bandwagoning for Profit: Bring the Revisionist State Back In," International Organization, Vol. 42, No.1, Spring 1988, pp. 104-105.
② See Robert Powell, In the Shadow of Power, New Jersey: Princeton University Press, 1999, Chapter 5.
③ See Paul W Schroeder, "Historical Reality vs. Neo-realist Theory", International Security, Vol, 19, No. 2, Summer 1994.
④ See Neustadt, Alliance Politics, Introduction and Chapter One.
⑤ Steven David, Choosing Sides: Alignment and Realignment in the Third World, Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1991, Introduction.
① Robert O. Keohane, "Alliance, Threats and the Uses of Neorealism," International Security, Vol. 13, No. 2,Summer 1988, pp. 174-175.
② Michael F. Altfeld, "The Decision to Ally: and Test, "The Western Political Quarterly, Vol. 37, No. 4, December 1984, pp. 523-544.
③ James Morrow. "Alliances and Asymmetry: An Alternative to the Capability Model of Alliances,"American Journal of, Political. Science, Vol. 47, No. 4, 1991, p. 904. 就联盟内部力量分部(对称性或非对称性)与联盟凝聚力关系问题，学界存在不同看法。如韦茨曼(Patricia A. Weitsman)认为，就战时联盟而言，对称性联盟将增强联盟的凝聚力，非对称性联盟将导致联盟四分五裂。Patricia A. Weitsman, "Alliance Cohesion and Coalition Warfare: The Central Powers and Triple Entente," Security Studies, Vol. 12, No. 3, 2003, p. 85.
④ Randolph M. Siverson and Harvey Start, "Regime Change and the Restructuring of Alliances," American Journal of Political Science, Vol. 38, No. 1, 1994, pp. 145-161.
⑤ Thomas J. Christensen and Jack Snyder, "Chain Gangs and Passed Bucks: Predicting Alliance Patterns in Multinolarity". International Organization, Vol. 44, No. 1, Spring 1990, p. 143.
⑥ 安全困境也叫安全两难，是指在缺乏互信的国际无政府状态下，国际实体为寻求安全而相互竞争、最终 由于无法获得绝对安全而注定在竞争中失败这一状态。John H. Herz, International Politics in the Atomic Age, New York: Columbia University Press, 1959, pp. 230-231; Robert Jervis, "Cooperation under the Security Dilemma," World Politics, Vol. 30, No. 2, 1978.
① Thomas J. Christensen and Jack Snyder, "Chain Gangs and Passed Bucks: Predicting Alliance Patterns in Multipolarity", pp. 144—167．至于为什么双边联盟比多边联盟更容易引发战争，辛格等人认为主要是因为双边联盟多为进攻性联盟，而多边联盟多为防御性联盟。参见Volker Ksause and J. David Singer, "Patterns of Alliance Commitments and the Risk of Armed Conflict Involvement, 1816-1984," in Gerald Schneider and Patricia A. Weitsman, eds., Enforcing Cooperation: Risky States and International Management of Conflict, Hampshire and London: Macmillan Press Ltd., 1997, pp. 88-89.
② 于铁军：《国际政治中的同盟理论：进展与争论》．载《欧洲》，1999年第5期，第46页。
③ James D. Morrow, "Arms versus Allies: Trade-Offs in the Search for Security," International Organization, Vol. 47, No. 2, 1993, p. 208.
① Glenn H. Snyder, "The Security Dilemma in Alliance Politics", World Politics, Vol. 34, No. 3, July 1984, pp.461-495.
② See Singer and Small, "Alliance Aggregation and the Onset of War."
③ Alvin M. Saperstein, "Alliance Building versus Independent Action," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 36,No. 3, Spring 1992, pp. 518-545.
④ Kegley and Raymond, "Alliance Norms and War: A New Piece in an Old Puzzle," p. 572．后来两人在此文章的基础上完成了一本论著，参见Charles W. Jr. Kegley and Gregory A. Raymond, When Trust Breaks Down: Alliance Norms and World Politics, Columbia: University of South Carolina Press, 1990.
⑤ Kegley and Raymond, When Trust Breaks Down, p. 254.
⑥ Randolph M. Siverson and Joel King, "Attributes of National Alliance Membership and War Participation, 1815-1965," American Journal of Political Science, Vol. 24, No. 1, 1980, p. 1.
① Shu Guang Zhang, Economic Cold War: America's Economic Embargo against China and the Sino-Soviet Alliance, 1949-1963, Washington, DC and Stanford, Calif.: Woodrow Wilson Center Press and Stanford University Press. 2001. p. 268.
② 陈兼：《张曙光著“经济冷战：美国对华经济禁运和中苏同盟”》，载《历史研究》，2003年第4期，第188页。
③ Saperstein, "Alliance Building versus Independent Action," pp. 518-545.
④ Riker. The Theory of Political Coalitions, pp. 32-33.
① Ibid., pp. 167—168.
② 关于“零和游戏”的论述可参见Riker, The Theoly of Political Coalition, p. 15.
③ Riker, The Theory of Political Coalition, pp. 213-214.
④ Ole R. Holsti, "Alliance and Coalition Diplomacy," in James N. Rosenau, Kenneth W. Thompson and Gavin Boyd, eds., World Politics, New York: Free Press, 1976, p. 342.
⑤ Fedder, "The Concept of Alliance," pp. 67-71.
⑥ 目前国内学界普遍将基欧汉视作制度主义的代表人物，但基欧汉本人却认为自已并不属于自由主义，而属于现实主义。基欧汉认为，制度主义的理论分析框架实际上是结构现实主义。参见李少军：《国际政治学概论》，上海：上海人民出版社，2002年版，第62页。
① Keohane, "Alliances, Threats, and the Uses of Neorealism," pp. 174-175; Joseph Nye, "Multilateralism", Foreign Policy, No. 2, Summer 1985.
② 功能主义的代表人物是米特尼(David Mitrany)。参见L. Claude Jr., Swords into Plowshares: The Problems and Progress of International Organization, New York: Random House, 1971.
③ George Liska, Alliances and the Third World, Baltimore: The Johns Hopkins Press, 1968, p. 23.
④ Friedman, Bladen and Rosen, eds., Alliance in International Politics, p. 8.
⑤ Morgenthau and Thompson, Politics among Nations, p. 553.
⑥ Philip H. Gordon, "Recasting the Atlantic Alliance," Survival, Vol. 38, No. 1, Spring 1996, p.151; Michael Ruhle and Nick Williams, Why NATO Will Survive, Comparative Strategy, Vol. 16, No. 1, 1997, p. 111. 该文章认为，“北约的存在是为了抵抗苏联的威胁”这一看法是完全错误的。
⑦ Robert O. Keohane, After Hegemony: Cooperation and Discord in the World Political Econony, Princeton:Princeton University Press, 1984, pp. 243-247.
⑧ Karl Deutsch, Political Community at the International Level: Problems of Measurement and Definition, N. Y.:Garden City, 1954, p. 33; Karl Deutsch., Political Community and the North Atlantic Area: International Organization in the Light of Historical Experience, Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1957, Chapter Two. 多伊奇提出的理论假设既促进了制度主义联盟理论的发展，也促进了建构主义联盟理论的发展。
① Deutsch., Political Community and the North Atlantic Area, p. 7.
② John S. Duffield, "International Regimes and Alliance Behavior: Explaining NATO Conventional Force Levels," International Organization, Vol. 46; No. 4, 1992, pp. 832-840.
③ Barry Rubin and Thomas A. Keaney eds., US Allies in A Changing World, London: FRANK CASS, 2001, p. 31.
④ Robert McCalla, "NATO's Persistence after the Cold War," International Organization, Vol. 50, No. 3, Summer 1996, p. 445.
① See Celeste A. Wallander, "Institutional Assets and Adaptability: NATO after the Cold War," International Organization, Vol. 54, No. 4, Autumn 2000; David Lake, "Beyond Anarchy: The Importance of Security Institutions," International Security, Vol. 26, No. 1, Summer 2001.
② Philip R. Jones, "Defense Alliances and International Trade," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 32, No. 1,1988, pp. 123-124.
③ Joanne Gowa, Allies, Adversaries, and International Trade, Princeton, New Jersey: Princeton University Press,p. 6.
④ Ibid., p. 7.
⑤ Edward D. Mansfleld, "Alliances, Preferential Trading Arrangements and Sanctions," Journal of International Affairs, Summer 1994, Vol. 48, No. 1, conclusion. 关于经济制裁与联盟关系的研究成果还可以参见Shu Guang zhang. Economic Cold War.
① Bennett, "Testing Alternative Models of Alliance Duration, 1816-1984," pp. 874-875.
② [美]米尔斯海默 著：《人国政治的悲剧》，第46页；John J. Mearsheimer, "The False Promise of International Institution," International Security, Vol. 19, No. 4, Winter 1994-1995, p. 47.
③ Stephen M. Walt, "Why Alliances Endure or Collapse," Survival, Vol. 39, No. 1, Spring 1997, pp. 166-167.
④ 倪世雄等著：《当代西方国际关系理论》，上海：复旦大学出版社，2001年版，第227页。另可参见Michael N. Barnett, "Identity and Alliances in the Middle East," in Peter J. Katzenstein, ed., The Culture of National Security: Norms and Identity in World Politics. New York: Columbia University Press, 1996.
① Friedman, Bladen and Rosen, eds., Alliance in International Politics, p. 125.
② Liska, Nations in Alliance, pp.12-13.
③ Alexander Wendt, Social Theory of International Politics, pp. 4-6.
④ Thomas Risse-Kappen, "Collective Identity in a Democratic Community: The Case of NATO," in Peter J. Katzenstein ed., The Culture of National Security: Norms and ldentity in World Politics, p. 367.
⑤ Ibid., pp. 364-365.
⑥ Ibid., p. 371
康德文化的联盟观属于建构主义联盟观的一部分，可参见Wendt, Social Theory of International Politics, pp.301-312.
① 也有些中国学者将其译为“认知联盟”，参见王帆：《认知联盟理论评析》，载《欧洲研究》．2003年第1期。
② Amos A. Jordan, American National Security, Baltimore: The Johns Hopkins Press, 1989, pp. 500-501.
③ Rubin and Keaney, US Allies in A Changing World, pp.29-48.
④ Alexander Wendt, "Collective Identity Formation and the International State", American Political Science Review, Vol. 88, No. 2, 1994, p.167.
⑤ Barnett, "Identity and Alliances in the Middle East," pp. 403-408.
⑥ Ibid., pp. 413-436.
① F. Gregory Gause, "Balancing What? Threat Perception and Alliance Choice in the Gulf," Security Studies, Vol. 13. No. 2. 2003. pp. 273-305.
② 温特在《国际政治的社会理论》一书曾试图将科学的研究方法(实证主义)和建构主义完美地结合到起，但结果似乎并不令人满意。参见Wendt, Social Theory of International Politics,pp.40—41.
③ Ibid., pp. 370-376: 于铁军：《国际政治中的同盟理论：进展与争论》，第24页。
① 当然，这五个概念当中有的属于政治术语(如Alignment)，有的属于外交用语(如Coalilion和Entente)，有的则属于学术概念(如Aliance)，在探讨它们的运作过程时学界常常并不拘泥于严格的界定。
② Julian R. Friedman, Christopher Bladen and Steven Rosen, eds., Alliance in lnternational Politics, Boston, Mass.: Allyn and Bacon, Inc., 1970, p. 321.
③ Roger V. Dingman, "Theories of, and Approaches to, Alliance Politics," in Paul Gordon Lauren ed., Diplomacy: New Approaches in History, Theory, and Policy, London: Collier Macmillan Publishers, 1979, p. 249.
④ Michael Don Ward, Research Gaps in Alliance Dynamics: Bolk 1, Denver, Colorado: University of Denver, 1982, pp. 4-5. 不过，签订了《中立协定》或《互不侵犯条约》是否意味着结盟还值得商榷，详见下文分析。
① Robert E. Osgood, Alliances and American Foreign Policy, Baltimore and London: The Johns Hopkins Press, 1968, p. 17.
② Julian R. Friedman, Christopher Bladen and Steven Rosen, eds., Alliance in International Politics, p. 5.
③ Edwin Fedder, "The Concept of Alliance,"International Studies Quarterly, Vol. 12, No. 1, 1968, p. 68; P. 81.
④ Douglas M. Gibler and John A. Vasquez, "Uncovering the Dangerous Alliances, 1495-1980,"International Studies Quarterly, Vol. 42, No. 4, 1998, p. 787.
⑤ Glenn H. Snyder, Alliance Politics, Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 1997, p. 4.
⑥ Glenn H. Snyder, "Alliance Theory: A Neorealist First Cut", Journal of International Affairs, Vol.44, No, 1,Spring 1990.
⑦ T. N. Dupuy, ed., International Military and Defense Encyclopedia, Maxwell Macmillan. Item "Alliance, Military and Political", Maxwell Macmillan Inc., 1993, p. 135.
⑧ Webster's Encyclopedic Unabridged Dictionary of the English Language, New York: Gramercy Books, 1996, p.39.
① 将此学派关于联盟的界定视为主流联盟定义主要基于两点考虑，一是因为持这一观点的学者在数量上占主导地位，二是因为持这一观点的学者在联盟理论研究的深度方面处于领先位置。参见Ole R. Holsti, Unity and Disintegration in International Alliances: Comparative Studies, New York: John Wiley & Sons, 1973, p. 4;Charles W. Kegley Jr. and Gregory A. Raymond, When Trust Breaks Down: Alliance Norms and World Politics, Columbia: University of South Carolina Press, 1990, p. 52; Warren E Kimbal, "Alliances, Coalitions, and Ententes," in Encyclopedia of American Foreign Policy, Vol.1, New York: Charles Scribner's Sons, 2002, p. 14; Glenn H. Snyder, Alliance Politics, p. 4; Bruce Russett, "An Empirical Typology of International Military Alliances," Midwest Journal of Political Science, Vol. 15, No. 2, May 1971; David V. Edwards, International Political Analysis, New York: Holt, Rinehart and Wintston, 1969, p. 206; Roger V. Dingman, "Theories of, and Approaches to, Alliance Politics," p. 249.
② Friedman, Bladen and Rosen, eds, Alliance in International Politics, p. 15.
③ Ole R. Holsti, "Alliance and Coalition Diplomacy," in James N. Rosenau, Kenneth W. Thompson and Gavin Boyd, eds., World Politics, New York: Free Press, 1976, p. 339.
④ Charles W. Kegley Jr. and Eugene R. Wittkopf, World Politics: Trend and Transformation, 7th ed., Boston and New York: Bedford/St. Marlin's, 1999, p, 463.
⑤ 中国社会科学院语言研究所词典编辑室编：《现代汉语词典》，北京：商务印书馆，1998年版，第785页。
⑥ Henry A. Kissinger, The Troubled Partnership, New York: Greenwood Press, 1982, p. 11.
⑦ Joshna S. Goldstein, International Relations, 2~(nd) ed., Happer Collins: Happer Collins College Publisher. 1996, p.83.
⑧ Joseph S. Nye Jr., Understanding International Conflicts: An Introduction to Theory and History, 2~(nd) ed., New York: Longman, 1997, p. 58.
① J. David Singer and Melvin Small, "Formal Alliances, 1815-1939," Journal of Peace Research, Vol. 3, No. 1,1966, p. 5; Jack S. Levy, "Alliance Formation and War Behavior: An Analysis of the Great Powers, 1495-1975," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 25, No. 4, 1981, p. 588. 当然，将《互不侵犯条约》视作结盟的标志在实证上面临许多难题。例如，1970年苏联与联邦德国签订了《苏德放弃使用武力协定》，按照此标准苏德应是军事联盟关系。实际上《互不侵犯条约》与《共同防御条约》存在较大的差别，前者主要基于双方或多方并行不悖的利益，后者主要基于共同敌人或共同威胁。
② Ward, Research Gaps in Alliance Dynamics, p. 5.
③ Stephen M. Walt, The Origins of Alliances, Ithaca: Cornell University press, 1987, p. 1. 索罗金对沃尔特提出的联盟的概念提出了质疑。他认为：“美国同以色列从来就没有建立正式的联盟关系……将肯尼迪政府以来美国同以色列的关系看作是联盟关系在理论上是误导的，在实证上也是站不住脚的。”参见Gerald L. Sorokin,"Alliance Formation and General Deterrence: A Game-Theoretic Model and the Case of Israel," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 38, No. 2, June 1994, pp. 300-301.
④ 参见Barry Rubin and Thomas A. Keaney, eds., US Allies in A Changing World, London: Frank Cass, 2001. 此书第8篇和第10篇文章分别探讨了美以关系和美台关系，并认为它们都是联盟关系的实例。
⑤ 梅孜主编：《美台关系重要资料选编：1948．11-1996．4》，北京：时事出版社，1996年版，第318页。
① 传统现实主义联盟理论认为，联盟不同于松散型联盟(Alignment)在很大程度上在于前者的安全合作指向第三方，并且存在与第三方爆发冲突的潜在危险。参见George Modelski, "The Study of Alliances: A Review," The Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 7, No. 4, 1963, pp. 774-775.
② Francis A. Beer, ed., Alliances: Latent War Communities in the Contemporary World, New York: Holt, Rinehart and Winston, 1970, p. 92.
③ Michael Don Ward. Research Gaps in Alliance Dynamics, p. 6; Nazli Choucri, "The Perceptual Base of Nonalignment," The Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol, 13, No. 1, 1969. 这两篇文章所进行的研究都基于同样的理论假定，即国家要么与东方或西方国家结盟，要么像印度、埃及、印尼和南斯拉夫等亚非国家那样追求不结盟政策。
④ Hans J. Morgenthau and Kenneth W. Thompson. Politics among Nations: The Struggle for Power and Peace. 7th ed., New Delhi:Alfred A. Knopf, 1985, p. 203.
① 关于“特殊关系”的理论探讨可参见 Alex Danchev, "On specialness," International Affairs, Vol. 72, No. 4, 1996．
② Walt, The Origins of Alliances, Introduction; Rubin and Keaney, eds., US Allies in A Changing Wbrld, pp.145-180, pp. 201-224.
③ See Edward A. Olsen, US National Defense for the Twenty-First Century: The Grand Exit Strategy, London: Frank Cass, 2002.
④ Victor D. Cha, Alignment Despite Antagonism: The Unites States-Korea-Japan Security Triangle, Stanford: Stanford University Press, 1999, pp. 36-37.
① 参见Sylvia K. Crosbie, A Tacit Alliance: France and Israel fron Suez to The Six-Day War, Princeton: Princeton university Press, 1974. 该书主要梳理了1956-1967年法以关系发展的历史脉络。
② Gerald L. Sorokin, "Alliance Formation and General Deterrence: A Game-Theoretic Model and the Case of Israel," pp. 299-303.
③ [美]约翰·米尔斯海默著，王义桅、唐小松译：《大国政治的悲剧》，上海：上海人民出版社，2003年版．第355页。
④ George F. Lisla, Nations in Alliance: The Limits of Interdependence,Baltimore: Johns Hopkins Press, 1968, p.85.
① Osgood. Alliances and American Foreign Policy, p,20.
② 近代欧洲历史上也曾出现过准联盟关系，如1904年《英法协约》签署后的英法准联盟关系。
③ Christopher Marquis, "For Allies, 'I Do' Becomes 'Hey, Want to Dance?'" The New York Times, April 14, 2002, p. 16.
① Charles W. Kegley Jr. and Gregory A. Raymond, When Trust Breaks Down: Alliance Norms and World Politics, pp. 2-8.
② 孙德刚：《约翰逊政府时期美以“准联盟”关系的形成》，载《中东研究》，2003年第2期，第25-30页。
③ See Sylvia K. Crosbie, A Tacit Alliance.
① Bruce D. Berkowitz, "Realignment in International Treaty Organizations." International Studies Quarterly, Vol. 27, No. 1, March 1983, p. 85.
② Brent J. Talbot, Cooperative Security in the Era of US Primacy: Exploring the Leader-Follower Relationship During Coalition Operations, (A Dissertation), Ann Arbor: UMI, 2003, p. 34.
① Michael T. Klare, "Subterranean Alliances: America's Global Proxy Network," Journal of International Affairs, Vol. 43, No. 2, Summer/Fall 1989, pp. 102-105.
② 陈效卫著：《美国联盟战略研究》，北京：国防大学出版社，2002年版，第40页。
③ Madeleine Albright, "The Testing of American Foreign Policy," Foreign Affairs, Vol. 32, No, 6, Nov/Dec 1998, pp. 51-52.
① Richard N. Haass, "Defining U. S. Foreign Policy in Post-Post-Cold War World", Remarks to Foreign Polio, Association, New York, April 22, 2002. 转引自郑迎平：《布什政府的新联盟战略思想》，载《现代国际关系》，2002年第11期，第46—48页。
② Williamson Murray and Robert H. Scales, Jr., The Iraq War: A Military History, Cambridge: The Belknap Press,2003, p. 487.
① Ido Oren, "The War Proneness of Alliances," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 34, No. 2, 1990, p. 208.
② [美]理查德·N．哈斯著，陈谣遥、荣凌译：《规制主义——冷战后的美国全球战略》，北京：新华出版社1999年版，第100页。
① Michael T. Klare, "Subterranean Alliances: America's Global Proxy Network," pp.97-118.
② Thomas L. MacNaugher, Arms and Oil, U. S. Military Strategy and the Persian Gulf, Washington D. C.: Brookings, 1985, pp. 199-206.
③ Rajan Menon, "The End of Alliances", World Politics Journal, Vol. 20, No. 2, Summer 2003, pp. 1-20.
④ Kimbal, "Alliances, Coalitions, and Ententes," p. 13.
① 华尔兹对立足于单元进行研究的简化理论(还原理论)(Rcductionist Theory)提出了批评，认为应当从国际结构的层面构建体系理论(Systemic Theory)．体系理论主要考察两个方而：国际体系的结构和各单元的互动。相关重要图表可参见Kenneth N. Waltz, Theory of International Politics, Mass.: Addison Wesley,1979, pp.99-101.
① George F. Liska, Nations in Alliance: The Limits of Interdependence, Baltimore: Johns Hopkins Press, 1968, p.106.
② 对安全困境研究颇为深入的是罗伯特·杰维斯(Robert Jervis)，特别是他的论文"Cooperation Under the Security Dilemma," World Politics, Vol. 30, No. 2, January 1978, pp.167-214; 也可参见Charles L: Glaser, "The Security Dilemma Revisited", WorldPolitics, Vol. 50, No. 1, October 1997, pp. 171-201.专门研究联盟安全困境的成果目前还比较少见，多散见于一些论文中，如Glenn H. Snyder, "The Security Dilemma in Alliance Politics," World Politics, Vol. 34, No. 3, July 1984, pp. 461-495.
③ Waltz, Theory of International Politics, pp. 103-105.
④ George Liska, Resurrecting a Discipline: Enduring Scholarship for Evolving World Politics, Lanham: Lexington Books, 1999, p. 67.
⑤ Arnold Wolfers, ed., Discord and Collaboration. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1962, p. 28. 当然， 西方有些学者，如布赞(Barry Buzan)、费赖(Daniel Frei)、杰维斯则认为安全没有确切的定义，而是一个模糊的象征，参见Peter Mangold, National Security and International Relations, London: Rouledge, 1990, pp.2-3.
① David A. Baldwin, "Thinking about Threat," The Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 15, No. 1, 1971, p. 72.
② David A. Baldwin, "The Concept of Security," Review oflnternational Studies, Vol. 23, No. 1, 1997, pp. 13-17.
③ 可参见张曙光的两本著作：《美国对华战略：考虑与决策(1949-1972)》，上海：上海外语教育出版社2003年版，前言部分第6页；Mao'sMilitary Romanticism: China and the Korean War, 1950-1953, Lawrence,KS: University Press of Kansas, 1994, Chapter 1.
④ Ibid.
⑤ Ole R. Holsti, Unity and Disintegration in International Alliances: Comparative Studies, New York: John Wiley& Sons, 1973, p. 11; Dan Reiter, Crucible of Beliefs: Learning, Alliances, and Worm Politics, Ithaca and London:Cornell University Press, 1996, p. 2.
⑥ Stephen M. Walt, The Origins of Alliances, Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 1987, p. 25.
⑦ US Reaction to Soviet Destruction of CPR Nuclear Capability, August 18, 1969, Nixon Presidential Material Project (NPMP), National Archives II, College Park, MD, USA (1969-1973), Box 334.
① 综合制衡(Omnibalancing)一词首先是由大卫(Steven David)提出的。参见Steven David, Choosing Sides:Alignment and Realignment in the Third World, Baltimore: The Johns Hopkins University Press, 1991.
② 最后这一点成为建构主义学派研究安全和威胁问题的突破口。参见David Campbell, Writing Security: United States Foreign Policy and the Politics of ldentity, Minneapolis: University of Minnesota Press, 1992.
③ 对安全和威胁研究的最近成果包括Michael C. Williams, ed., Critical Security Studies: Concepts and Cases, Minneapolis: University of Minnesota Press, 1997; Richard Wyn Jones, Security, Strategy and Critical Theory, Boulder: Lynne Rienne Publishers, 1999; Ronnie D. Lipschutz, ed., On Security, New York: Columbia University Press, 1995.
④ See Waltz, Theory of lnternational Politics; Walt, The Origins of Alliances.
⑤ See J. Ann Ticker, "Re-Visioning Security", in Ken Booth and Steve Smith, eds., International Relations Today, Pennsylvania: The Pennsylvania State University Press, 1995.
⑥ G. R. Berridge, International Politics: States, Power and Conflict since 1945, New York: Prentice Hall, 1997, p.177.
① Holsti, Unity and Disintegration in International Alliances, pp. 1-2.
② Hans Morgenthau, "The National Interest of the United States", American Political Science Review, Vol. 66, No.4, 1952, P. 961.
③ See Hans J. Morgenthau and Kenneth W. Thompson, Politics Among Nations: The Struggle for Power and Peace, New Delhi: Kalyani Publishers, 1985, Chapter Three.
④ Mark R. Armstutz, International Conflict and Cooperation, Boston: McGraw- Hill, 1999, pp. 778-779.
⑤ Charles A. Beard, The Idea of National Interest: An Analytical Study in American Foreign Policy, Chicago: Quadrangle Books, 1966, pp. 32-36.
⑥ Donald Naechtelein, "The Concept of National Interests: A Time for New Approach," Orbis, Vol.23, No. 1, Spring 1979, p. 73-92.
⑦ Frderic S. Pearson and J. Martin Rochester, International Relations, 4th ed., New York: McGraw-Hill, 1998, pp.177-178.
① Alexander Wendt, Social Theory of International Politics, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1999, pp.235-236.
② Andrew M. Scott, The Dynamics of Interdependence, NC: Chapel Hill, 1982; Alen Tonelson, "What is the National Interest", Atlantic Vol.268, No. 1, July 1991, pp.35-52; Condoleezza Rice, "Promoting the National Interest", Foreign Affairs, Vol. 79, No. 1, January/February 2000, pp. 45-62.
③ [美]约翰·米尔斯海默著，王义桅、唐小松译：《大国政治的悲剧》，上海：上海人民出版社，2003年版，第64页。
④ [美]费丽莫著，袁正清译：《国际社会中的发展利益》，杭州：浙江人民出版社，2001年版，第2—3页；Wendt, Social Theory of International Politics, p. 115.
⑤ Wendt, Social Theory of International Politics, p. 234.
⑥ 方长平著：《发展利益的建构主义分析》，北京：当代世界出版社，2002年版，第2页。
① Robert L. Rothstein, Alliance and Small Powers, New York and London: Columbia University Press, 1968, p.1.
② Kevin Narizny, "The Political Economy of Alignment: Great Britain's Commitments to Europe, 1905-39," International Security, Vol. 27, No. 4, Spring 2003, pp. 217-219.
③ 意识形态的相关研究成果包括George Schwab, ed., Ideology and Foreign Policy, New York: Cyroo Press, 1978; Alan Cassels, Ideology and International Relations in the Modern World, London and New York: Routledge, 1986; George F. Kennan, Around the Cragged Hill: A Personal and Political Philosophy, New York: and London:W. W. Nonton, 1993; Henry Kissinger, Does America Need a Foreign Policy?: Toward A Diplomacy for the 21~(st) Century, New York: Simon & Schuster, 2001.
④ Abthomy Downs, An Economic Theory of Democracy, New York: Harper &Row, 1957, Introduction.
⑤ Michael Freeden, Ideology and Political Theory, Oxford: Clarendon Press. 1996, pp. 12-15.也有学者认为，划 分标准不同，意识形态的内涵也不一样。例如可以根据思想的内容和结构、功能(包括个人——社会功能和组织功能)和社会性等来解读意识形态的内涵。参见David M. Minar, "Ideology and Political Behavior,"Midwest Journal of Political Science, Vol. 5, No. 4, 1961, pp. 317-331.
① Charles W. Kegley Jr. and Gregory A. Raymond, When Trust Breaks Down: Alliance Norms and World Politics, Columbia: University of South Carolina Press, 1990, p. 56.
② 王晓德著：《美国文化与外交》，北京：世界知识出版社，2000年版，第18-20页。
③ [美]迈克尔·H·亨特著，褚律元译：《意识形态与美国外交政策》，北京：世界知识出版社，1999年版，第182页。
④ Robert Jervis and Jack Snyder, Dominoes and Bandwagons: Strategic Beliefs and Great Power Competition in the Eurasian Rimland, New York and Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1991, p. 103.
⑤ Holsti, Unity and Disintegration in International Alliances, p. 53.
① Randolph M. Siverson and Juliann Emmons, "Birds of a Feather: Democratic Political Systems and Alliance Choices in the 20th Century," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 35, No. 2, 1991, pp. 304-305.
② 这就是所谓的“亲和力理论”(Affinity Theories)，即相同的制度、文化传统和意识形态价值观会具有重要的吸引力，国家在选择盟友时会因此而带有某种程度的偏见。参见Ole R. Holsti, "Alliance and Coalition Diplomacy," in James N. Rosenau, Kenneth W. Thompson, and Gavin Boyd, eds., World Politics, New York: Free Press. 1976. p. 345.
③ 关于这一点，可参考哈斯的实证研究。Mark L Haas, "Ideology and Alliances: British and French External Balancing Decisions in the 1930s, Security Studies, Vol. 12, No: 4, 2003, pp. 34-79.
④ [英]马丁·怀特著，宋爱群译：《权力政治》，北京：世界知识出版社，2004年版，第80页。
⑤ 近些年来涉及文明或文化的研究成果较为丰富，国内外学者的研究成果包括Samuel P. Huntington, The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order, New York: Simon＆Schuster,1996; 王缉思主编：《文明与国际政治——中国学者评亨廷顿的文明冲突论》，上海：上海人民出版社，1995年版；王晓德著：《美国文化与外交》。
⑥ See Wendt, Social Theory of International Politics, Chapter 6.
① 这里土耳其可能是个特例，该国属于世俗的伊斯兰文化，与西方文化存在重要差异。这也是土耳其长期以来不为欧洲国家吸纳为欧盟成员的重要原因。
② 美国学者麦克尔·莫萨尔(Michael Mazarr)归纳了文化与国际关系之间的5种模式。参见Michael J. Mazarr, "Culture and International Relations: A Review Essay," The Washington Quarterly, Vol. 19, No. 2, Spring 1996, pp.177-195.
③ 《中国大百科全书》(哲学卷)，北京：中国大百科全书出版社1987年版，第924页；Akira Iriye, "Culture and International History", in Michael J. Hogan and Thomas G. Paterson, eds., Explaining the Histoty of American Foreign Relations, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1991, p. 215.
④ 王缉思主编：《文明与国际政治——中国学者评亨廷顿的文明冲突论》，第2-3页；Samuel P. Huntinglon,"The Clash of Civilization?" Foreign Affairs, Summer 1993, Vol. 72, No. 3, pp. 22-49.
⑤ See Sylvia K. Crosbie, A Tacit Alliance: Francc and Israel from Suez to the Six Day War, Princeton, New Jersey: Princeton University Press, 1974.
① Alexander Wendt, Social theory of international politics, p. 1; Alexander Wendt, "Anarchy is What Stales Make of It: The Social Construction of Power Politics", in James Der Derian, ed., International Theory: Critical lnvestigations, New York: New York University Press, 1995, pp. 129-177.
② Arthur A. Stein, Why Nations Cooperate: Circumstance and Choice in International Relations, Ithaca and London: Cornell University Press, 1990, pp. 166-168.
③ Charles W. Kegley Jr. and Gregory A., Raymond, When Trust Breaks Down: Alliance Norms and World Politics, p. 59.
④ Robert L. Rothstein, Alliance and Small Powers, pp.49—50; Michael N. Barnett, and Jack S. Levy, "Domestic Sources of Alliances and Alignments: the Case of Egypt, 1962-73," International Organization, Vol. 45, No. 3, Summer 1991, p. 371.
① Liska, Nations in Alliance, p. 30.
② Alastair Buchan, "Problems of an Alliance Policy," in Michael Howard, ed., The Theory and Practice of War, Bloomington: Indiana University Press, 1965, p. 295.
③ Charles W. Kegley Jr. and Eugene R. Wittkopf, World Politics: Trend and Transformation, 7th ed., Boston and New York: Bedford/St. Martin's, 1999, p. 465.
④ Berridge, International Politics, p. 177.
⑤ 关于这一时期的中美关系可参见Robert S. Ross, China, The United States and the Soviet Union: Tripolarity and Policy Making in the Cold War, Armonk and New York: An East Gate Book, 1993.
⑥ Yaacov Bar-Siman-Tov, "The United States and Israel since 1948: A 'Special Relationship'?" Diplomatic History, Vol. 22, No. 2, Spring 1998, p. 236.
① Arnold Wolfers, "Alliances," in David L Sills, ed., International Encyclopedia of Social Sciences, New York: Macmillan, 1968, p. 269.
② Rothstein, Alliance and Small Powers, p.48.
③ Robert Jervis, System Effects: Complexity in, Political and Social Life, Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1997, p. 6.
④ Arnold Wolfers, ed., Discord and Collaboration, p. 218.
⑤ See Luigi Albertini, The Origins of the War of 1914, London: Oxford University Press, 1952.
① 这是新现实主义的主要观点，参见waltz, theory of International Politics,p.88.
② [美]米尔斯海默著：《大国政治的悲剧》第65页。
③ Joshna S. Goldstein, International Relations, 2~(nd) ed., Happer Collins: Happer Collins College Publisher, 1996, p.85.
④ Thomas J. Christensen and Jack Snyder, "Chain Gangs and Passed Bucks: Predicting Alliance Patterns in Multipolarity," International Organization, Vol. 44, No. 2, Spring 1990, pp. 140-143.
⑤ Rothstein.Alliance and Small Powers, p.13.
① 这一时期的欧洲国际关系的研究成果可以参见两本书E. C. Helmreich, The Diplomacy of the Balkan Wars, Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1938; R. J. Crampton, The Hollow Détente, London: George Prior Publishers, 1979.
② Memo of Conversation between Kissinger and Zhou, July 10, 1971, NPMP, Box 1033.
③ Snyder, "The Security Dilemma in Alliance Politics," pp. 461-495.
④ Robert E. Osgood, Alliance and American Foreign Policy, Baltimore: Johns Hopkins Press, 1968, p. 19.
① Glenn H. Snyder, Alliance Politics, Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 1997, p. 12.
② Jervis, "Cooperation under the Security Dilemma," pp. 167-214.
③ 关于安全困境呈螺旋模式发展，可参见罗伯特·杰维斯著，秦亚青译：《国际政治中的知觉与错觉》，北京：世界知识出版社，2003年版，第三章“威慑理论、螺旋模式与对手意向”。
④ Memocon between the President Nixon and Prime Minster Wilson, January 27, 1970, NPMP, Box 1023/3.
① Ole R. Holsti, Unity and Disintegration in International Alliances, p. 25.
① 系统论述权力平衡(均势)的经典著作有: Max Beloff and Baron Beloff, The balance of power, Montreal: McGill University Press, 1967; Michael Sheehan, The Balance of Power: History and Theory, London: Routledge, 1996; Emerson M. S. Niou, The Balance of Power: Stability in International Systems, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1989; F H. Hinsley, Power and the Pursuit of Peace: Theory and Practice in the History of Relations between States, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1963.
② Hans J. Morgenthau, "alliance in Theory and Practice," in Arnold Wolfers cal.,Alliance Policy in the Cold War ,Baltimore, MD: The Johns Hopkins Press, 1959.
③ Stephen M. Walt, The Origins of the AIliances, Ithaca: Cornell University press, 1987, p. 1.
④ 参见Hans J. Morgenthau and Kenneth W. Thompson, Politics among Nations: The Struggle for Power and Peace, 6th ed., New Delhi: Kalyani Publishers, 1985, 第二章第四、五节。
① Randall L. Schweller, "Bandwagoning for Profit: Bring the Revisionist State Back in", International Security, Vol. 19, Summer 1994, pp.79-81.
② Dan Reiter, Crucible of Beliefs: Learning, Alliances, and World Politics, Ithaca and London: Cornell University Press, 1996. p. 59.
③ 李少军：《国际政治学概论》，上海：上海人民出版社，2002年版，第224页。
④ Reiter, Crucible of Beliefs, p. 11.
① Charles W. Kegley Jr. and Gregory A. Raymond, When Trust Breaks Down: Alliance Norms and World Politics, Columbia: University of South Carolina Press, 1990, p. 265.科尼比尔(John A. C. Conybeare)则把结盟看作一项证券投资(Portfolio), 并认为国家在选择结盟前通常会在回报率(Rate of Return )和风险(Risk)之间进行权衡。参见John A. C. Conybeare, "A Portfolio Diversification Model of Alliances: The Triple Alliance and Triple Entente, 1879-1914," The Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 36, No. 1, 1992, pp. 61-64.
② Glenn H. Snyder, "The Security Dilemma in Alliance Politics", World Politics, Vol.34, No.3, July 1984, p. 462.
① 关于这一点，弗里德曼也有一定的论述，参见Julian R. Friedman, Christopher Bladen, and Steven Rosen, Alliance in International Politics, Boston, Mass.: Allyn and Bacon, Inc., 1970, p. 18.
② Glenn H. Snyder, Alliance Politics, Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 1997. p. 158.
③ 进攻性现实主义代表人物米尔斯海默认为，由于国家安全的稀缺性，世界上所有的国家都对现状不满， 都是挑战现状的国家，所以国际实体只可能存追随和推卸责任之间选择其一。参见[美]约翰·米尔斯海默著，王义桅、唐小松译：《大国政治的悲剧》，上海：上海人民出版社，2003年版，第8章。
① Snyder, Alliance Politics, p. 51.
② Wall, The Origins of the Alliances, p. 175.
① John A. C. Conybeare, "The Portfolio Benefits of Free Riding in Military Alliances," International Studies Quarterly, Vol. 38. 1994, p. 405.
① Norman Podhoretz, "Israel and the United States: A Complex History," Commentary, Vol. 105, No. 5, May 1998, p. 48.
② Yaacov Bar-Siman-Tov, "The United States and Israel since 1948: A 'Special Relationship'?" Diplomatic History, No. 2, Spring 1998, p.233.
③ See Mohamed Al-Kiswani and Khawas Mohamed, The U.S. and Israel: .4 Very Special Relationship, London: Zed Press, 1984; Abraham Ben-Zvi, The United States and Israel: The Limits of the Special Relationship, New York: Columbia University Press, 1990; Bernard Reich, The United States and Israel: Influence in the Special Relationship, New York: Praeger, 1984; Claudia Wright, Spy, Steal, and Smuggle: Israel's Special Relationship with the United States, Belmont, Mass.: AAUG Press, 1986; Herbert Druks, The Uncertain Alliance: The U.S. and Israel from Kennedy to the Peace Process, Westport: Greenwood Press, 2001.
④ Warren Bass, Support Any Friend: Kennedy's Middle East and the Making of the US-lsrael Alliance, London: Oxford University Press, 2003; Grace Halsell, Prophecy and Politics: The Secret Alliance between Israel and the U.S. Christian Right, Chicago: Lawrence Hill Books, 1986; Camille Mansour, Beyond Alliance: Israel and U.S. Foreign Policy, New York: Columbia University Press, 1994; Yossi Melmann and Dan Raviv, Friends in Deed: Inside the U.S.-Israel Alliance, New York: Hyperion, 1994.
① See David Schoenaum, The United States and the State of Israel, New York and Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1993.
② Aaron S. Klieman and Adrian L. Klieman, eds., American Zionism: A Documentary History, New York and London: A Garland Series, 1991, pp. 2-4.
③ George W. Ball and Douglas B. Ball, The Passionate Attachment: America's Involvement with Israel 1947 to the Present, New York: W. W. Norton, 1992, p. 52.
④ Mitchell Geoffrey Bard, The Water's Edge and Beyond, New Brunswick: Transaction Publishers, 1991, p. 182.
⑤ Bat-Ami Zucker, U.S. Aid to Israel and Its Reflection in the New York Times and Washington Post: 1948-1973, Lewiston: The Edwin Mellen Press, 1991, p. 26.
⑥ Steven L. Spiegel, The Other Arab-Israeli Conflict, Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1986, p. 56.
⑦ Herbert Druks, The Uncertain Friendship: The U.S. and Israel from Roosevelt to Kennedy, pp. 153-173.
① Barry Rubin and Thomas A. Keaney, eds., US Allies in A Changing World, London: FRANK CASS, 2001, p.145.
② Bar-Siman-Tov, "The United States and Israel since 1948: A 'Special Relationship'?" p. 236.
③ See Sylvia K. Crosbie, A Tacit Alliance: France and Israel From Suez to The Six Day War, Princeton, New Jersey: Princeton University Press, 1974.
④ Cheryl Rubenberg, Israel and the American National Interest, Urbana: University of Illinois Press, 1986, p. 91.
⑤ John P. Miglietta, American Alliance Policy in the Middle East, 1945-1992: Iran, Israel and Saudi Arabia, Lanham, M.D.: Lexington Books, 2002, p. 133; Abraham Ben-Zvi, Decade of Transition: Eisenhower, Kennedy and the Origins of the American-Israeli Alliance, New York: Columbia University Press, 1998, p. 97.
⑥ John P. Miglietta, American Alliance Policy in the Middle East, 1945-1992, p. 134.
⑦ Stephen Green, Taking Sides: America's Relations with a Militant Israel, New York: William Morrow, 1984, p.211.
① 有些学者也称阿联，全称阿拉伯联合共和国，1958年埃及与叙利亚合并而成。1961年9月叙利亚脱离后，埃及仍以“阿联”为国名，直至1971年9月才改名为阿拉伯埃及共和国。为行文统一，本文一律使用“埃及”一词。
② Andrew Cockburn and Leslie Cockburn, Dangerous Liaison: The Inside Story of the US-Israeli Covert Relationship, New York: HarperCollins Publishers, 1991, p. 190.
③ Judith A. Klinghoffer, Vietnam, Jews and the Middle East: Unintended Consequences, New York: St. Martin's Press, 1999, p. 10.
④ "Toast to the President and Prime Minster Eshkol at of Israel at a Dinner at the LBJ Ranch, January 7, 1968," Public Papers of the Presidents of the United States, Lyndon B. Johnson, 1968-69, Book I, Washington D.C.: United States GPO, 1970, p. 19.
⑤ Naseer H. Aruri, The Obstruction of Peace: The United States, Israel, and the Palestinians, Monroe: Common Congress Press, 1995, pp. 86-87. http.//www.fas.org//asmp.html
⑥ Bar-Siman-Tov, "The United States and Israel since 1948:A 'Special Relationship'?" p. 246.
⑦ Warren I. Cohen, "Balancing American Interests in the Middle East: Lyndon Baines Johnson vs. Gamal Abdul Nasser," in Warren I. Cohen and Nancy Bernkopf Tucker, eds.,Lyndon Johnson Confronts the World: American Foreign Policy, 1963-1968, New York: Cambridge University Press, 1994, p. 279.
① Memoramdum, Talk with Israeli Defense Minister Shimon Peres, June 1964, Foreign Relations of the United States (FRUS) 1964-1968, Vol. ⅩⅧ, Arab-Israeli Dispute 1964-67, No. 69.
② Aruri, The Obstruction of Peace, pp. 86-87.
③ Mansour, Beyond Alliance: Israel in U.S. Foreign Policy, p. 190.
④ Bard, The Water's Edge and Beyond, p. 195.
⑤ Abraham Ben-Zvi, "Influence and Arms: John F. Kennedy, Lvndon B. Johnson and the Politics of Arms Sales to Israel, 1962-1966," lsraeI Affairs, Vol, 10, No. 1-2, 2004, p. 35.
① Memorandum of Conversation between US Secretary of States and Israeli Ambassador Avraham Harman, January 3, 1964, FRUS 1964-1968, No. 3.
② Memoramdun from the Joint Chiefs of Staffto Secretary of Defense McNamara on Military Assistance for Israel, March 12, 1964, FRUS, 1964-1968, No. 28.
③ Ibid.
④ Memorandum from the President's Deputy Special Counsel Feldman to President Johnson on Tanks for Israel, March 14, 1964, FRUS 1964-1968, No. 29.
⑤ Memorandum for the Standing Group on Response to NSAM 290, (Undated), FRUS 1964-1968, No.47.
⑥ Memorandum for the Record on Israeli Requests for U. S. Tanks, April 30, 1964, FRUS 1964-1968, No. 49.
① Memorandum from President Johnson to His Deputy Special Counsel Feldman, May 15, 1964, FRUS 1964-1968, No. 55.
② Memorandum of Conversation between Levi Eshkol and Myer Feldman, May 17, 1964, FRUS 1964-1968, No. 58.
③ Memorandum for Record among Johnson, Secretary Rusk and Secretary of Defense McNamara, May 16, 1964, FRUS 1964-1968, No. 57.
④ Memorandum of conversation between Levi Eshkol and Harriman, June 2, 1964, FRUS 1964-1968, No. 67.
⑤ Memorandum for Record between Shimon Peres and Komer, (Undated), FRUS 1964-1968, No. 69.
⑥ Memorandum from the President's Deputy Special Counsel Feldman to President, October 19, 1964, FRUS 1964-1968, No. 99.
⑦ Memorandum from Secretary of State Rusk to President Johnson, October 10, 1964, FRUS 1964-1968, No.99.
① 详见下文“经济援助”部分。
② Saudia Touval, The Peace Brokers, New Jersey: Princeton University Press, 1982, p. 135.
③ Stephen Green, Living by the Sword, Brattleboro, Vt.: Amana Books, 1988, p. 10.
④ Telegram from the Embassy in Israel to the Department of State, March 11, 1965, FRUS 1964-1968, No. 185.
① Druks, The Uncertain Alliance, p. 45.
② William B. Quandt, Decade of Decision—Araerican Policy toward the Arab-Israeli Conflict, California: University of California Press, 1977, p. 66.
③ Ibid., p. 67.
④ Memorandum of Conversation between President Johnson and Prime Minister Eshkol, June 1, 1964, FRUS 1964-1968, No. 65.
① Telegram from the Embassy in Israel to the Department of State, March 11, 1965, FRUS 1964-1968, No.185.
② Memorandum of Conversation between Secretary of State and Ephraim Evron, August 21, 1965, FRUS 1964-1968, No.260.
③ Telegram from the Department of State to the Embassy in Israel, December 22, 1966, FRUS 1964-1968, No.374.
④ Memorandum for Record: Israeli Arms Needs, January 10, 1964, FRUS 1964-1968, No.7.
⑤ Airgram from the Department of State to the Embassy in Israel, June 17, 1966, FRUS 1964-1968, No.301.
⑥ Quandt, Decade of Decision, p. 50.
① Benjamin Beit-Hallahmi, The Israeli Connection, New York: Pantheon Books, 1987, p. 198.
② Memorandum of Conversation between Johnson and Eshkol, June 1, 1964, FRUS 1964-1968, No. 65.
③ Miglietta, American Alliance Policy in the Middle East, 1945-1992, p. 176.
④ Aruri, The Obstruction of Peace. pp. 86-87.
① Ibid., pp. 86-87.
② Memorandum from Robert W. Komer of the National Security Council Staff to President Johnson, May 28, 1964, FRUS 1964-1968, No.63.
③ Zucker, U.S. Aid to Israel and Its Reflection in the New York Times and Washington Post, p. 30.
④ Memorandum of Conversation between Johnson and Eshkol, June 1, 1964, FRUS 1964-1968, No.65.
⑤ Memorandum from Robert W. Komer of the National Security Council Staff to the President Deputy Special Counsel Feldman, March 23, 1964, FRUS 1964-1968, No. 33.
⑥ Aruri, The Obstruction of Peace, pp. 86-87.
① Memorandum from Secretary of State Rusk to President Johnson, October 10, 1964, FRUS 1964-1968, No. 99.
② Memorandum from the President's Deputy Special Assistant for National Security Affairs Komer to President in Texas, December 28, 1965, FRUS 1964-1968, No. 259.
③ Memorandum from the President's Special Assistant Rostow to President Johnson, April 29, 1966, FRUS 1964-1968, No. 285.
④ See Robert J. Lieber, "U.S.-Israeli Relations Since 1948", Middle East Review of International Affairs, Vol. 2, No. 3, September 1998.
⑤ Memorandum from the Representative to the United Nations Goldberg to President Johnson, May 1, 1967, FRUS 1964-1968, No. 414.
⑥ Stephen M. Walt, The Origins of Alliances, Ithaca: Cornwell University Press, 1987, p. 46.
① James Lee Ray, The Future of American-Israeli Relations, Kentucky: The University Press of Kentucky Press, 1985, p. 1; Adam Garfinkle, "US-Israeli Relations after the Cold War," Orbis, Vol. 40, No.4, Fall 1996, p. 1.
② 又译为“果尔达·梅厄”。
③ Druks, The Uncertain Alliance, pp. 6-7.
④ Letter from President Johnson to Prime Minister Eshkol, January 2, 1964, FRUS 1964-1968, No. 1.
⑤ Telegram from the Department of State to the Embassy in Israel, February 20, 1964, FRUS 1964-1968, No. 14.
⑥ Memorandum of Conversation between President Johnson and Prime Minister Eshkol, June 1, 1964, FRUS 1964-1968, No. 65.
⑦ Ibid.
⑧ Memorandum from Robert W. Komer of the National Security Council Staff to the President's Deputy Special Counsel, March 23, 1964, FRUS 1964-196,9, No. 33.
⑨ Memorandum from President Johnson to His Deputy Special Counsel Feldman, May 15, 1964, FRUS 1964-1968, No. 55.
⑩ Telegram from the Embassy in Israel to the Department of State, March 11, 1965, FRUS 1964-1968, No.185.
① Druks, The Uncertain Alliance, p. 38.
② Telegram from the Department of State to the Embassy in Israel, January 25, 1964, FRUS 1964-1968, No. 11.
③ Memorandum of Conversation between King Hussein and Present Johnson, April 14, 1964, FRUS 1964-1968,No. 39.
④ Telegram from the Departmeht of State to the Embassy in Israel, March 14, 1964, FRUS 1964-1968, No. 30.
⑤ Circular Telegram from the Department of State to Certain Posts, November 17, 1964, FRUS 1964-1968, No.106.
⑥ Circular Telegram from the Department of State to Certain Posts on U. S. Contacts with Palestine Liberation Organization, March 30, 1965, FRUS 1964-1968, No. 199.
⑦ Special Report Prepared by the Central lntelligence Agency, December 3, 1965, FRUS 1964-1968, No. 255.
① Bar-Siman-Tov, "The United States and Israel since 1948: A 'Special Relationship'?" p. 240.
② Quandt, Decade of Decision, p. 53; Druks, The Uncertain Alliance, p. 34.
③ Druids, The Uncertain Alliance, p. 35.
④ Cohen, "Balancing American Interests in the Middle East," p. 301.
⑤ Druks, The Uncertain Alliance, pp. 51-52.
⑥ Lorenza Rossi, Who Shall Guard the Guardian Themselves? New York: Peter Lang Publishing Group, 1996, p.81.
① "Toast of the President and President Zalman Shazar of Israel, August 2, 1966," in Public Papers of the Presidents of the United States. Lyndon B. Johnson, p. 796.
② Miglietta, American Alliance Policy in the Middle East, 1945-1992, pp. 118-119.
③ Summary Prepared in the Department of State, (Undated), FRUS 1964-1968, No. 5.
④ Action Memorandum from the Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern and South Asian Affairs Talbot to Secretary Rusk, April 20, 1964, FRUS 1964-1968, No. 45.
① Ibid.
② Rossi, Who Shall Guard the Guardian Themselves, p. 83.
③ Memorandum of Conversation between President Johnson and UAR Ambassador Mustafa Kamel, May 25,1964, FRUS 1964-1968, No. 60.
④ Robert E. Osgood, Alliance and American Foreign Policy, Baltimore and London: The Johns Hopkins Press, 1968, p. 83.
⑤ Memorandum from Secretary of State Rusk to President Johnson, February 1, 1965, FRUS 1964-1968, No. 129.
⑥ National Intelligence Estimate, The Outlook for the United Arab Republic, May 19, 1966, FRUS 1964-1968, No.290.
① Memorandum from Robert W. Komer to the National Security Council Staff to President Johnson, January 8, 1964, FRUS 1964-1968, No. 72. 另可参见Warren I. Cohen, "Balancing American Interests in the Middle East: Lyndon Baines Johnson vs. Gamal Abdul Nasser," p. 297.
② Telegram from the Department of State to the Consulate in Dhahran, November 20, 1964, FRUS 1964-1968, No.107.
③ Martin Gilbert, Israel:A History, London and New York: Doubleday, 1998, pp. 365-366.
④ Zucker, U.S. Aid to Israel and Its Reflection in the New York Times and the Washington Post, p. 27.
① Arnold Blumberg, The History of Israel, Westport: Greenwood Press, 1998, p. 104.
② Telegram from the Department of State to the Embassy in the United Arab Republic, June 27, 1966, FRUS 1964-1968, No. 306.
③ Memorandum of Conversation between the Secretary of State and Ambassador of Avraham Harman, December 29, 1965, FRUS 1964-1968, No. 260.
④ Memorandum of Conversation between President Johnson and Prime Minister Eshkol, June 1, 1964, FRUS 1964-1968, No. 65.
⑤ Gregory Gause Ⅲ, Saudi-Yemeni Relations: Domestic Structures and Foreign Influence, New York: Columbia University Press, 1990, p. 59.
⑥ David Ben-Gurion, lsrael:A Personal History, New York: Herzl Press, 1972, p. 758.
⑦ Memorandum from the Embassy in the United Kingdom to the Department of State, March 25, 1964, FRUS 1964-1968, No. 34.
⑧ Moshe Gut, "Britain and Lsrael before and after the Six Day War, June 1967: from Support to Hostility," Conternporary British History, Vol 18, No. 1, Spring 2004, pp. 54-56; Podhoretz, "Israel and the United States," pp. 28-43.
① Michael Brecher, "The Middle East Subordinate System and Its Impact on Israel's Foreign Policy," International Studies Quarterly, Vol. 13, No. 2, 1969, p. 137.
② Gilbert, Israel:A History, p. 365.
③ Letter from Prime Minister Eshkol to President Johnson, March 12, 1965, FRUS 1964-1968, No. 189.
④ Green. Living by Sword, p. 10.
⑤ Blumberg, The History of Israel, p. 105.
① 其中不包括吉布提、索马里和巴勒斯坦。
② David S. Painter, Oil and the American Century: The Political Economy of U.S. Foreign Oil Policy, 1941-1954,Baltimore: Johns Hopkins Press, 1986, pp. 1-4.
③ Secretary of Defense, "A Report to the National Security Council, NSC-47," May 17, 1949, in Klinman and Klieman, eds., American Zionism, pp. 2-4.
④ Letter from the Assistant Secretary of State fro Near Eastern and South Asian Affairs Hare to the Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs ttoopes, August 22, 1966, FRUS 1964-1968, No. 316.
① Clyde R. Mark, Israel: U.S. Foreign Assistance, CRS Issue Brief, Washington D.C: Library of Congress, January 5, 1993, pp. 6-7; Mansour, Beyond Alliance, p. 190.
② Julian R. Friedman, Christopher Bladen and Steven Rosen, eds., Alliance in International Politics, Boston,. Mass.: Allyn and Bacon, Inc., 1970, p. 77.
③ Edward Bernard Glick, The Triangular Connection: America, Israel, and American Jews, London: George Allen & Unwin, 1982, p. 106.
④ Zucker, U.S. Aid to Israel and Its Reflection in the New York Times and the Washington Post, 1948-1973, p. 27.
⑤ Henry Jackson's Statement, Congressional Record, 91~(st) Congress. 2~(nd) Session, December 1970, p. 14867.
⑥ Senator Clark's Statement, Congressional Record, p. 11541.
① Zucker, U.S. Aid to Israel and Its Reflection in the New York Times and the Washington Post, 1948-1973, p. 28.
② Rubenberg, Israel and the American National Interest, p. 15.
③ Congressman Woff's Statement, Congressional Record, May 2, 1968, p. 11424.
④ Editorial, "Israel's Tenth," New York Times, April 24, 1958.
⑤ Zucker, U.S. Aid to Israel and Its Reflection in the New York Times and the Washington Post, 1948-1973. p. 28.
⑥ Alexander Wendt, Social Theory of International Politics, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1999, p. 31;pp. 42-43.
⑦ J. Kraft, "The Prophet Fulbright," Washington Post, August 23, 1970.
① Zucker, U.S. Aid to Israel and Its Reflection in the New York Times and the Washington Post, 1948-1973, p. 29.
② "US Presidents on Israel." http://www, us-israel.org//jsource/AJS -Istael//presquote.html.
③ "Toast of the President and Prime Ministet Eshkol at a Dinner at the LBJ Ranch, January 7, 1968," in Public Papers of the Presidents of the United States, Lyndon B. Johnson, 1968-69, p. 19.
④ C.L. Sulzberger. "The Roots of Hell," New York Times, June 9, 1963.
① Charles W. Yost, The Conduct and Misconduct of Foreign Affairs, New York: Random House, 1972, p. 41.
② George F. Liska, Nations in Alliance: The Limits of Interdependence, Baltimore: Johns Hopkins Press, 1968, pp.20-21.
③ Podhoretz, "Israel and the United States," p. 48.
④ Memorandum from Robert W. Komer of the National Security Council Staff to the President's Special Council Feldman, March 23, 1964, FRUS 1964-1968, No. 33.
⑤ William J. Lanouthe, "The Many Faces of the Jewish Lobby in America," National Journal, Vol. 19, May 13,1978, p. 748.
⑥ Bar-Siman-Tov, "The United States and Israel since 1948: A 'Special Relationship'?" p. 265.
⑦ Warren I. Cohen, "Balancing American Interests in the Middle East: Lyndon Baines Johnson vs. Gamal Abdul Nasser," p. 302.
⑧ Melman and Raviv, Friends in Deed, pp. 132-133.
⑨ Edward Tivnan, The Lobby, New York: Simon and Schuster. 1987, p. 66.
① Gerald L. Sorokin, "Alliance Formation and General Deterrence: A Game-Theoretic Model andthe Case of Israel," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 38, No. 2, June 1994, p. 319.
② Telegram from the Embassy in Israel to the Department of State, April 7, 1964, FRUS 1964-1968, No. 37.
③ 在这一点上，联盟与准联盟具有相似之处。关于联盟的情况可参见Friedman, Bladen and Rosen, eds., Alliance in International Politics, p.99.
① Memorandum from the President's Deputy Special Assistant for National Security Affairs Komer to President Johnson, February 8, 1966, FRUS 1964-1968, No. 267.
② Klinghoffer, Vietnam, Jews and the Middle East, p. 66.另可参见Warren I. Cohen, "Balancing American Interests in the Middle East: Lyndon Baines Johnson vs. Gamal Abdul Nasser," p. 295.
③ Garfinkle, "US-Israeli Relations after the Cold War," p. 1.
④ Podhoretz, "Israel and the United States: A Compoex History," p. 48.
⑤ Hans J. Morgenthau, "Alliances in Theory and Practice", in Arnold Wolfers, ed.,Alliance Policy in the Cold War, Baltimore, MD: The Johns Hopkins Press, 1959, p. 185.
⑥ Zucker, U.S. Aid to Israel and Its Reflection in the New York Times and the Washington Post, 1948-1973, p. 26.
⑦ Cohen, "Balancing American Interests in the Middle East," p. 306.
① Telegram from the Department of State to the Embassy in Israel, November 25, 1964, FRUS 1964-1968, No. 109.
② Memorandum from the Embassy in Israel to the Department of State, September: 14, 1966, FRUS 1964-1968,No. 322.
③ Memorandum of Conversation between President Johnson and Prime Minister Eshkol, June 1, 1964, FRUS 1964-1968, No. 65.
④ Telegram from the Embassy in Israel to the Department of State, February 28, 1965, FRUS 1964-1968, No. 168.
⑤ National Intelligence Estimate, The Arab-Israeli Problem, March 10, 1965, FRUS 1964-1968, No. 187.
① Circular Telegram from the Department of State to Certain Posts, November 17, 1964, FRUS 1964-1968, No. 106.
② Memorandum from Secretary of State Rusk to President Johnson, January 16, 1964, FRUS 1964-1968, No. 9.
③ Memorandum from the Joint Chiefs of Staff to Secretary of Defense McNamara, May 6, 1965, FRUS 1964-1968,No. 211.
④ Letter from the Assistant Secretary of State of Near Eastern and South Asian Affairs Hare to the Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs Hopes, August 22, 1966, FRUS 1964-1968, No. 316.
⑤ Telegram from the Embassy in Israel to the Department of State, February 28, 1965, FRUS 1964-1968, No. 165.
⑥ Circular Telegram from the Department of State to the Embassy in Israel, August 22, 1965, FRUS 1964-1968,No. 317.
⑦ Telegram from the Department of State to the Embassy in Israel, March 1, 1965, FRUS 1964-1968, No. 169.
① Liska, Nations in Alliance, p. 65, p. 69.
② Telegram from the Embassy in Israel to the Department of State, April 7, 1964, FRUS 1964-1968, No. 37.
③ Memorandum from the President's Special Assistant for National Security Affairs Bundy to President Johnson, March 8, 1964, FRUS 1964-1968, No. 27.
④ Telegram from the Embassy in Lebanon to the Department of State, April 20, 1967, FRUS 1964-1968, No. 409.
⑤ Memorandum from the Secretary of State Rusk to President Johnson on Preventing Nuclear Proliferation in the Near East, May 10, 1965, FRUS 1964-1968, No. 214.
⑥ Robert O. Keohane, Alliances, Threats and the Uses of Neorealism, Ithaca: Cornell University Press.1987, p. 174.
① Friedman, Bladen and Rosen, eds., Alliance in International Politics, p. 12.
② Noam Chomsky, The Fateful Triangle: The United States, Israel and the Palestinians, Boston: South End Press, 1983, pp. 98-99.
③ Glenn H. Snyder, "The Security Dilemma in Alliance Politics," World Politics, Vol.34, No.3, July 1984, P. 461.
④ Action Memorandum from the Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern and South Asian Affairs Talbot to Secretary of State Rusk, April 20, 1964, FRUS 1964.1968, No. 45.
⑤ Memorandum from President Johnson to His Deputy Special Counsel Feldman, May 15, 1964, FRUS 1964-1968, No. 55.
⑥ Podhoretz, "Israel and the United States," p. 49.
① Letter from President Johnson to President Nasser, February 27, 1964, FRUS 1964-1968, No. 20.
② Walt, The Origins of Alliances, p. 246.
③ Telegram from the Department of State to the Embassy in Israel, November 15, 1966, FRUS 1964-1968,No. 335.
④ Telegram from the Department of State to the Embassy in Jordan, November 24, 1966, FRUS 1964-1968,No. 347.
⑤ Telegram from the Department of State to the Embassy in the United Arab Republic, November 25, 1966, FRUS 1964-1968, No. 348.
① 索罗金也认为埃及低估了美国卷入1967年阿以冲突的可能性，参见Sorokin, "Alliance Formation and General Deterrence,"p. 322.
① Nixon to Kissinger, February 1, 1969, Box 341, Nixon Presidential Material Project (NPMP), National Archives Ⅱ, College Park, MD, USA (1969-1973).
② William Buur ed., Kissinger Transcripts: The Top Secret Talks with Beijing and Moscow, New York: The New Press, 1998, pp. 208-210; 陶文钊、杜瑞清、王旭主编：《中美关系与东亚国际格局》，北京：中国社会科学出版社，2003年版，第430页。
③ See Alexander Wendt, Social Theory of International Politics, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1999, Chapter 6.
④ See John W. Garver, China's Decision for Rapprocheraent with the United States, 1968-1971, Colorado: West View Press, 1982; Robert S. Litwak, Détente and Nixon Doctrine: American Foreign Policy and the Pursuit of Stability, New York: Cambridge University Press, 1984; Robert G. Sutter, China Watch: Toward Sino-American Reconciliation, Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1978; Jaw-ling Joanne Chang, United States-China Normalization: An Evaluation of Foreign Policy Decision Making, Colorado: Graduate School of International Studies University of Denver, 1986;张曙光著：《美国对华战略考虑与决策(1949-1972)》，上海：上海外语教育出版社2003年版；胡礼忠等著：《从望厦条约到克林顿访华——中美关系：1884-1996》，福州：福建人民出版社1996年版；资中筠主编：《战后美国外交史——从杜鲁门到里根》(下册)，北京：世界知识出版社1994年版；宫力著：《跨越鸿沟——1969-1979年中美关系的演变》，郑州：河南人民出版社1992年版；陶文钊主编：《中美关系史，1949-1972》，上海：上海人民出版社，2000年版。
⑤ see Gordon Chang, Friends and Enemies: The United States, Chinu, and the Soviet Union, 1948-1972, Stanford,CA: Stanford University Press, 1990;Harvey W. Nelsen, Power and Insecurity: Beijing, Moscow, and Washigton, 1949-1988, Boulder: Lynne Rienner Publishers, 1989; Ilpyong Kim, The Strategic Triangle: China, the United States and the Soviet Union, New York: Paragon House, 1987; Raymond Garthoff, Détente and Confrontation: American-Soviet Relations from Nixon to Reagan, Washington D. C.: Brookings Institution, 1985; Elizabeth Wishnick, "In the Region and in the Center; Soviet Reactions to the Border Rift", Cold War Internatioal History Project Bulletin, No. 6/7, Winter 1995/1996, pp. 194-201; John Spanier and Steven W. Hook, American Foreign Policy Since World War Л, Washington D. C.: Congressional Quarterly Inc., 1995, pp. 150-170.
⑥ 在前期研究成果中，有一篇文章认为1972年中期到1973年早期中美出现过心照不宣的联盟关系(Tacit Alliance)，参见Evelyn Goh, "Nixon, Kissinger, and the 'Soviet Card' in the U.S. Opening to China, 1970-19745," Diplomatic History, Vol. 29, No. 3, June 2005, pp. 485-499.
① Memorandum of Conversation between Kissinger and Ye Jianying, July 11, 1971, Box 1033, NPMP.
② 萧冬连著：《五十年国事纪要》(外交卷)，长沙：湖南人民出版社，1999年版，第317-318页。
③ “尼克松主义”的主要内容是：以伙伴关系为核心，以实力为基础，以现实威慑为后盾，以谈判为手段， 在“五大力量”、“三角关系”中推行“均势外交”。参见《建国以来毛泽东文稿》(第13册)，北京：中央文献出版社，1998年版，第262页。
① Lawrence Freedman, U.S. Intelligence and the Soviet Strategic Threat, 2~(nd) ed., Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1986, pp. 129-144.
② Robert S. Ross, Negotiating Cooperation: The United States and China, 1969-1989, California: Stanford University Press, 1995, p. 20.
③ HAK Administrative and Staff Files: U. S. China Policy 1969-1972, Undated, Box 13, NPMP.
④ Document from Chairman, EA/IG-Marshall Green to Chairman, NSC Review Group, November 12, 1969, Box 2, NPMP.
⑤ Air gram from Amembassy Taipei to the Department of State, January 20, 1969, Box 341, NPMP. Conference on American Foreign Policy in the 1970's, December 31, 1969, Box 1, NPMP.
① 李捷：“从解冻到建交：中国政治变动与中美关系”，载《党的文献》，2002年第5期，第69页。相关内容也可参见《聂荣臻年谱》，北京：人民出版社，1999年版。
② Nixon to Kissinger, February 1, 1969, Box 341, NPMP.
③ Memorandum from Paul Findley to William P. Rogers, January 30, 1969, Box 1032/4, NPMP.
④ Ibid.
⑤ Ibid.
⑥ 宫力著：《毛泽东外交风云录》，北京：中央民族大学出版社，2004年版，第511页。
① Hughes to Rogers, June 13, 1969, Box 1, NPMP.
② State Department cable to Embassy Moscow, August 2, 1969, Box700, NPMP.
③ “苏军总参谋部侦查总局关于国际形势调查给苏共中央的报告”，1969年7月19日，参见沈志华总主编，叶书宗主编：《苏联历史档案选编》，第31卷，北京：社会科学文献出版社．2002年版，第395页。
④ US Reaction to Soviet Destruction of CPR Nuclear Capability, August 18, 1969, Box 334, NPMP.
⑤ Ibid.
⑥ Letter from Allen S. Whiting to Dr. Kissinger, August 16, 1969, Box 839, NPMP.
⑦ Memorandum from Helmut Sonnenfeldt and John H. Holdridge to Kissinger, September 12, 1969, Box 710, NPMP．
① 《建国以来毛泽东文稿》(第13册)，第66页。
② Letter from Allen S. Whiting to Dr. Kissinger, August 16, 1969, Box 839, NPMP.
③ Memorandum by Ambassador Walter Stoessel, September 9, 1969, Box 1032/4, NPMP.
④ Memorandum to members of NSC staff from Robert E. Osgood, July 7, 1969, Box 1, NPMP.
⑤ Letter from Congressman H. Allen Smith to John II. Holdridge, March 9, 1970, Box 138, NPMP.
⑥ Memorandum of Conversation, President Nixon, Ellsworth Bunker etc, July 29, 1969, Box 1026, NPMP..
⑦ Memorandum of Conversation between President Georges Pompidou and Kissinger, August 4, 1969, Box 1023, NPMP.
⑧ Secretary of State William P. Rogers' Speech before the National Press Club, Canberra, Australia, August 8, 1969, Box 334, NPMP.
① Ibid.
② Henry A. Kissinger to Nixon, February 11, 1969, Box 700, NPMP.
③ Ibid.
④ Henry A. Kissinger to Nixon. February 12, 1969, Box 700, NPMP.
⑤ 廖和叔事件是指1969年2月初中国驻荷兰临时代办廖和叔叛逃、并由美国中情局送往美国的事件。可参见熊向晖：“我的情报与外交生涯，”《中共党史资料》第42辑，北京：中共党史出版社，1992年版。
⑥ Thomas L. Hughes to Rogers, February 18, 1969, Box 700, NPMP.
⑦ Document from Marshall Green to the Under Secretary, October 6, 1969, POL. Chicom-US, Box 710, NPMP.
① Document from Ray S. Clilne to Rogers, November 21, 1969, POL. Chicom-US, Box 700, NPMP.
② Central Intelligence Agency, FOIA Release to National Security, Intelligence Memorandum, April 11, 1970,Box 710, NPMP.
③ Memorandum of conversation by President Nixon and General De Gaulle, March 1, 1969, Box 1023, NPMP.
④ Ibid.
⑤ Memorandum of Conversation, President Nixon and Ellsworth Bunker etc, July 29, 1969, Box 1026, NPMP.
⑥ Memorandum for the president from Henry A. Kissinger, June 13, 1969, Box 822, NPMP.
⑦ Memorandum of Conversation between President Georges Pompidou and Kissinger, August 4, 1969, Box 1023, NPMP.
⑧ Memorandum of Conversation between president Nixon and Ceausescu, August 2, 1969, Box 1023, NPMP.
① Ibid.
② Ibid.
③ Memorandum by Harold Saunders, National Security Council Staff of Conversation with Ambassador Agha Hilaly, August 28, 1969, Box 1032, NPMP.
④ Memorandum from Kissinger to Nixon, December 23, 1969, Box 1031, NPMP.
⑤ Memorandum by Ambassador Walter sloessel, September 9, 1969, POL. Chicom-US, Box 1032,NPMP.这一点在中文文献中并没有明显的说明。
⑥ Memorandum from Henry A. Kissinger to the President Nixon, December 10, 1969, Box 700, NPMP.
① 李丹慧主编：《国际冷战史研究》(第1集)，上海：华东师范大学国际冷战史研究中心，2004年版，第114—115页。
② Sadako Ogata, Normalization with China: A Comparative Study of U.S. and Japanese Processes, Berkley: University of California, 1988, p. 16.
③ Warsaw Embassy Airgram A-25 IV to Secretary of State, January 24, 1970, RG59, Subject-Numeric Files 70-73, Box 700, NPMP.
④ Ibid.
⑤ Memorandum from Kissinger to the President, January 21, 1970, Box 334, NPMP.
⑥ Memorandum from Holdridge to Kissinger, February 10, 1970, Box 70, NPMP.
⑦ Ibid.
⑧ Kissinger's Talking points: President's Foreign Policy, 1970 National Review, HAK 13/5, Box 1031, NPMP.
① 张曙光著：《美国对华战略：考虑与决策(1949-1972)》，前言。
② 5月20日，毛泽东在声明中将美国在印度支那的军事行动称作是“尼克松的法西斯暴行”，并认为“美国的法西斯统治必然失败。”参见《建国以来毛泽东文稿》(第13册)，第96-97页。该声明也表明中国当时在对苏缓和问题上看法并不一致。国防部长林彪藉口美国攻打柬埔寨，抨击周恩来与美国试探修好的政策。参见[美]陶涵著，林添贵译：《蒋经国传》，北京：新华出版社，2002年版，第325页。
③ Memorandum from Green to Rogers, May 18, 1970, RG 59, SN 70-73, Box 6/3, NPMP.
④ Airgram from Hong Kong Consulate to Rogers, July 21, 1970, RG 59, SN 70-73, Box 1032, NPMP.
⑤ Marshall Green to Kissinger, October 20, 1970, CO 34-2, Box 18, NPMP.
⑥ Memorandum from Kissinger to President Nixon, May 19, 1970, Box 1032, NPMP.
⑦ Memocon between President Nixon and President Yahya, October 25, 1970, Box 1032, NPMP.
① Memcon between Henry A. Kissinger and Ceausescu, October 10, 1970, Box 1032/4, NPME.
② From Kissinger to Nixon, December 10, 1970, Box 1031, NPMP.
③ Secretary of State William P. Rogers' Speech before the National Press Club, Canberra, Australia, August 8, 1969, Box 334, NPMP.
④ Document from Marshall Green to the Under Secretary, October 6, 1969, POL. Chicom-US, Box 710, NPMP.
⑤ Memorandum from Henry Kissinger to the President Nixon, December 11, 1969, Box 700, NPMP.
⑥ 胡涵钧著：《当今中美贸易：1972—2001》，上海：复旦大学出版社，2002年版，第91页。
⑦ President's Personal Files, February 3, 1971, Box 166, NPMP.
⑧ Secretary of State William P. Rogers' Speech before the National Press Club, Canberra, Australia, August 8, 1969, Box 334, NPMP.
⑨ Memocon by Nixon and Kissinger etc, July 19, 1971, Box 1036, NPMP.
① 《建国以来毛泽东文稿》(第13册)，第166页。
② 陶文钊、杜瑞清、王旭主编：《中美关系与东亚国际格局》，第426页。
③ 安建设编著：《周恩来的最后岁月1966—1976》，北京：中央文献出版社，2002年版，第313页。
④ Message from Zhou to Nixon, May 29, 1971, Box 1031, NPMP.
⑤ Memocon by Henry Grunwald, Hugh Sidey and Jerry Schecter, August 13, 1971, Box 1026/23, NPMP.
⑥ Scope Paper, Chinese Objective, July 1971, Box 1039.2/1, NPMP.
① Memorandum from Winston Lord to Kissinger, May 12, 1971, Box 1032/4, NPMP.
② Memorandum from Kissinger to Nixon, January 12, 1971, Box 1033, NPMP.
③ 中华人民共和国外交部，中共中央文献研究室：《周恩来外交文选》，北京：中央文献出版社，1990年版，第474页。
④ Ray Cline to Acting Secretary Irwin, April 14. 1071. Box 1031, NPMP.
⑤ Statement by Nixon on Travel and Trade with PRC, April 14, 1971, Box1031, NPMP.
⑥ HAK Administrative and Staff Files: Who Invited Whom?October 13, 1971, Box 13, NPMP; 《毛泽东外交文选》，北京：中央文献出版社、世界知识出版社1994年10月版，第593页；《建国以来毛泽东文稿》(第13册)，第166-167页。
⑦ Statement by Nixon to American Society of Newspaper Editors, April 16, 1971, Box 1031, NPMP.
⑧ Chert Jian and David L. Wilson, "All under the Heaven Is Great Chaos: Beijing, The Sino-Soviet Border Clashes and the Turn toward Sino-American Rapprochement, 1968-1969," Cold War International History Projcct Bulletin, No. 11, Winter 1998/1999, pp. 155-175.
⑨ National Security Study Memorandum 124, April 19. 1971, Box 1031, NPMP.
① Henry Kissinger, White Hottse Years, Boston and Toronto: Little, Brown and Company. 1979, p. 1088.
② Memorandum from Kissinger to Farland, May 20, 1971, Box 1031, NPMP.
③ Memorandum of Conversation between Kissinger and Zhou. July 9, 1971, Box 1033. NPMP.
④ 邢广程著：《苏联高层决策70年——从列宁到戈尔巴乔夫》(第四分册)，北京：世界知识出版社，1998年版，第144页。
⑤ Memorandum of Convérsation between Kissinger and Zhou. July 10, 1971, Box 1033,NPMP.
⑥ [美]陶涵著：《蒋经国传》第313页；第327页。
⑦ Memorandum of Conversation between Kissinger and Zhou, July 10, 1971, Box 1033. NPMP.
① Memorandum of Conversation between Huang Chen and Kissinger, August 19, 1971. Box. 330, NPMP.
② Memorandum from Kissinger to Nixon, November 11, 1971, Box 1035/1, NPMP.
③ Memorandum of Conversation between Kissinger and Huang Hua, December 15, 1971, Box 330, NPMP.
④ 1999年尼克松时期外交档案部分解密时，这几句话未能得到公开，直至2003年11月14日美国才公开这几句话。参见张曙光、周建明编译：《中美“解冻”与台湾问题——尼克松外交文献选编》(尚未出版)，2004年4月，第138页。
⑤ Memorandum of Conversation between Nixon and Mao. February 21, 1972, Box 16/3, NPMP.
⑥ Memorandum of Conversation between Kissinger and Zhou, July 11, 1971, Box 1033, NPMP.
① Memorandum of Conversation between Kissinger and Zhou", July 10, 1971, Box 1033, NPMP. 1952年4月28日《旧金山和约》签订的同一天，日本吉田政府和蒋介石集团签订了“日台条约”，建立了“外交关系”，日本与台湾当局在遏制新中国的目标下形成了密切的战略关系。
② Memorandum of Conversation between Kissinger and Zhou, July 11, 1971, Box 1033, NPMP.
③ Memorandum of Conversation between Kissinger and Zhou, October 22, 1971, Box 1033, NPMP.
④ Memorandum of Conversation between Kissinger and Zhou, July 9, 1971, Box 1033, NPMP.
⑤ Memorandum of Conversation between Kissinger and Zhou, July 10, 1971, Box 1033, NPMP; Memorandum of Conversation between Kissinger and Zbou, February 24, 1972, Box 1033, NPMP.
⑥ Memorandum of Conversation between Kissinger and Zhou, October 20, 1971, Box 1033, NPMP.
⑦ Memorandum of Conversation between Kissinger and Zhou, July 10, 1971, Box 1033, NPMP.
⑧ Ibid.
① Memorandum of Conversation between Kissinger and Zhou, October 21, 1971, Box 1033, NPMP.
② Issues and Talking Points: Taiwan, December 31, 1971, Box 91/3, NPMP.
③ Memorandum of Conversation between Kissinger and Zhou, October 21, 1971, Box 1033, NPMP.
④ Ibid.
⑤ Ibid.
⑥ Memorandum from Kissinger to Nixon, November 11, 1971, Box 1035/1, NPMP.
① Memorandum of Conversation between Kissinger and Zhou, July 9, 1971, Box 1033, NPMP.
② Memorandum of Conversation between Kissinger and Zhou, July 10, 1971, Box 1033, NPMP.
③ Memorandum of Conversation between Kissinger and Zhou, October 21, 1971, Box 1033, NPMP.
④ Memorandum of Conversation between Kissinger and Zhou, July 10, 1971, Box 1033, NPMP.
⑤ Memorandum of Conversation between Anatolia, Dobrvnin and Kissinger. August 17. 1971, Box 340. NPMP.
⑥ [俄]多勃雷宁著，肖敏、王为等译：《信赖：多勃雷宁回忆录》，北京：世界知识出版社，1997年版，第273页。
⑦ Memorandum of Conversation between Kissinger and Huang Hua, December 15, 1971, Box 330, NPMP.
⑧ Memorandum of Conversation between Kissinger and Huang Hua, November 29, 1971, Box 330, NPMP.
① Memorandum of Conversation between Huang Chen and Kissinger, August 19, 1971, Box 330, NPMP.
② Memorandum from Kissinger to Nixon, September 13, 1971, Box 330, NPMP.
③ Memorandum of Conversation between Kissinger and Huang Hua, December 15, 1971, Box 330; NPMP.
④ Ibid.
⑤ Ibid.
⑥ 由于内容的敏感性，美国国务院直至2003年11月14日才解密这段话。参见张曙光、周建明编译：《中美“解冻”与台湾问题——尼克松外交文献选编》，第138页。
⑦ Memorandum from Kissinger to Nixon, November 11, 1971, Box 1035/1, NPMP.
① HAK Administrative and Staff Files: U. S. China Policy 1969-1972, 1971? Box 13, NPMP.
② Memorandum of Conversation between Nixon and Mao, February 21, 1972, Box 16/3,NPMP; 逢先知、金冲及主编：《毛泽东传(1949-1976)》(下)，北京：中央文献出版社，2003年版，第1638页。
③ Memorandum of Conversation between Nixon and Zhou, February 23, 1972, Box 16/3, NPMP.
④ Memorandum from Robert Hormats to General Haig, June 25, 1972, Box 329, NPMP.
⑤ Memorandum of Conversation between Nixon and Mao, February 21, 1972, Box 16/3, NPMP.
⑥ George F. Liska, Nations in Alliance: The Limits of Interdependence, Baltimore: Johns Hopkins Press, 1968, p.99.
⑦ Memorandum of Conversation between Nixon and Mao, February 21, 1972, Box16/3, NPMP.
① U. S. Foreign Policy for the 1970's: New Departures for Peace, December 14, 1971, Box 13/1, NPMP.
② 张曙光著：《美国对华战略：考虑与决策(1949-1972)》，前言。
③ Memorandum of Conversation between Kissinger and M. Froment-Meurice, August 19, 1971, Box 1026,NPMP.
④ Annual Review: Outline and Possible Themes, 1971, Box 13/4, NPMP.
⑤ Memorandum of Conversation between French Prime Minister Chaban-Delmas and Kissinger, August 4, 1969, Box 1023, NPMP.
⑥ Henry Kissinger, White House Years, pp. 638-639.
⑦ Jonathan B. Isacoff and Wesley W. Widmaier, "Systemic Interpretations and the National Interest: Presidential 'Lessons of Vietnam' and Policy Deliberation." International Relations Vol 17 No. 2. 2003. p. 182.
⑧ [俄]多勃雷宁著：《信赖：多勃雷宁回忆录》，第272页。
① 萧冬连著：《五十年国事纪要》(外交卷)，第301页。
② From George C. Denney to Rogers, Intelligence Note, March 4, 1969, RG59, Box 1023, NPMP.
③ Memorandum of Conversation between Nixon and Zhou, February 23, 1972, Box 16/3, NPMP.
④ 宫力著：《毛泽东外交风云录》，北京：中央民族大学出版社，2004年版，第506页。
⑤ 萧冬连著：《五十年国事纪要》(外交卷)，第334页。
⑥ Memorandum of Conversation between Nixon and Zhou, February 21, 1972, Box 16/3, NPMP.
⑦ Memorandumcon among Kissinger, Jay Lovestone, Thomas Gleason" June 9, 1969, Box 1026/23, NPMP.
⑧ Memorandum of Conversation between Kissinger and Zhou, October 22, 1971, Box 1033, NPMP.
① Haig's January 12 China Trip", Undated, Undated, Box 1037/4, NPMP.
② Memorandum of Conversation between Nixon and Mao, February 21, 1972, Box 16/3, NPMP.
③ Memorandum of Conversation between Nixon and Zhou, February 22, 1972, Box 16/3, NPMP.
④ Memorandum of Conversation between Nixon and Zhou, February 21, 1972, Box 16/3, NPMP.
⑤ 关于这一点，两方学者强更多的是第一点，而忽略了第二和第三点。参见论文G. W. Choudhury, "Bangladesh: Why It Happened," International Affairs, Vol. 48, No. 2, 1972.
⑥ Haig's January 12 China Trip, Undated, Box 1037/4, NPMP.
⑦ Memocon between Haig and Zhou, January 3, 1972, Box 1037. NPMP.
⑧ 萧冬连著：《五十年国事纪要》(外交卷)，第327页。
⑨ Memocon between Nixon and Zhou, February 23, 1972, Box 16/3, NPMP.
⑩ Memocon between Haig and Zhou, January 3, 1972, Box 1037, NPMP.
① Memocon between Nixon and Zhou, Febmary 23, 1972, Box 16/3, NPMP.
② Memocon between Haig and Zhou,January 7, 1972, Box 1037, NPMP.
③ 美国国务院直至2003年11月14日才解密这段内容。参见张曙光、周建明编译：《中美“解冻”与台湾问题——尼克松外交文献选编》，第166页。
④ Memocon between Nixon and Zhou, February 24, 1972, Box 16/3, NPMP.
⑤ Memorandum from the Situation room to Kissinger, March 2, 1972, Box343, NPMP.
⑥ 陶文钊著：《中美关系史(1972-2000)》，上海：上海人民出版社，2004年版，第8页。
① James Lee Ray, Global Politics, 4th ed., Boston: Houghton Miffiim Company, 1990, p. 405.
② Memocon between Nixon and Zhou, February 22, 1972, Box 16/3, NPMP.
③ Memorandum from Kissinger to Nixon, July 14, 1971, Box 1033, NPMP.
④ Memorandum of Conversation between Nixon and Zhou, February 21, 1972, Box 16/3, NPMP.
⑤ Memorandumcon between Nixon and Zhou, February 28, 1972, Box 16/3, NPMP.
⑥ Letter from Marshall Green to the Acting Secretary, August 12, 1969, Box 334, NPMP.
⑦ Ibid.
⑧ Haig's January 12 China Trip, Undated, Box 1037/4, NPMP.
① Memocon between Haig and Zhou, January 3, 1972, Box 1037, NPMP.
② Ibid.
③ Meeting with the Congressional Leadership on China, February 1972, Box 16/2, NPMP.
④ Weekly Review, released by Directorate of Intelligence, March 21, 1969, Box 28, NPMP.
⑤ Memorandum from General Haig to Nixon, April, 1972, Box 1036/4, NPMP.
⑥ Bevin Alexander, The Strange Connection: U.S. Intervention in China, 1944-1972, New York: Greenwood Press, 1992, p. 216.
① 电报。美国驻台大使马康卫致国务院，1969年6月4日，题日：“日本在台湾的影响提升”。参见张曙光、周建明编译：《中美“解冻”与台湾问题——尼克松外交文献选编》，第52—60页。
② 同上，第134页。
③ Memorandum from Kissinger to Nixon, July 14, 1971, Box 1033, NPMP.
④ Memorandum of Conversation between Kissinger and Zhou, October 22, 1971, Box 1033, NPMP.
⑤ 这是2003年11月14日才解密的部分。参见张曙光、周建明编译：《中美“解冻”与台湾问题——尼克松外交文献选编》，第164页。
① 这是2003年11月14日才解密的部分。参见张曙光、周建明编译：《中美“解冻”与台湾问题——尼克松外交文献选编》，第186页。
② Opening remarks by Kissinger, July 16, 1971, Box 1036/1, NPMP.
③ Memorandum of Conversation between Nixon and Zhou, February 26, 1972, Box 16/3, NPMP.
④ Henry Kissinger, White House Years, p. 1090.
⑤ Memorandum of Conversation between Kissinger and Zhou, October 20, 1971, Box 1033, NPMP.
⑥ Memorandum of Conversation between Kissinger and Zhou, July 10, 1971, Box 1033, NPMP.
⑦ Memorandum from Kissinger to Nixon, February 5, 1972, Box 1033, NPMP.
① Memorandum of Conversation between Kissinger and Zhou, October 20, 1971, Box 16/3, NPMP.
② Memorandum for the president from Maurice H. Stans, May 19, 1969, Box 2/1, NPMP.
③ Warsaw Embassy Airgram A-25 IV to Secretary of State, January 24, 1970, RG59, Subject-Numeric Files 70-73,Box 700, NPMP.
④ President's Personal Files, Februarv 3. 1971. Box 166, NPMP.
⑤ Taiwan, June 30, 1971, Box 1032/1, NPMP.该文件可能是一份研究报告，但目前尚不清楚起草者是谁。
⑥ Next Steps toward the People's Republic of China, Issues Paper, June 1, 1971, Box 3, NPMP.
⑦ Memorandum of Conversation between Kissinger and Zhou, July 10, 1971, Box 1033, NPMP.
① Memorandum for Nixon, February 2, 1972, Box 1036/4, NPMP.
② Memorandum from Phil Odeen to Kissinger, March 28, 1972, Box 1036/4, NPMP.
③ Memorandum from John H. Holdridge to Kissinger, November 3, 1972, Box 329, NPMP.
④ Memorandum from General Haig to Hood, December 29, 1972, Box329, NPMP.关于尼克松政府对台军售情况可参见相关的数据：Memorandum from Richard T. Kennedy to Kissinger, March 3, 1973, Box 329, NPMP.
⑤ Statement by Senator Peter H. Dominick, March 3, 1972, Box 16/3, NPMP.
⑥ Memocon between Yen Chia-ken and Nixon, January 5, 1973, Box 1026/23, NPMP.
⑦ NSCF, Current Problem Book, January 19737 Box 91/2, NPMP.
① HAK Administrative and Staff Files: China, 1971, Box 13, NPMP.
② Memorandum of Conversation between Kissinger and Zhou, July 9, 1971, Box 1033, NPMP.
③ Briefing given by Kissinger in the Family Theater of the White House, March 7, 1972, Box 1026/2, NPMP.
④ Memorandum of Conversation between Nixon and Zhou, February 22, 1972, Box 16/3, NPMP.
⑤ Memocon between Haig and Zhou, January 7, 1972, Box 1037, NPMP.
⑥ Memocon between Haig and Zhou, January 3, 1972, Box 1037, NPMP.
⑦ Memocon by Henry Grunwald, Hugh Sidey and Jerry Schecter, August 13, 1971, Box 1026/23, NPMP.
① Memorandum of Conversation between Nixon andZhou, February 22, 1972, Box 16/3, NPMP;《建国以来毛泽东文稿》(第13册)，第282页。
② Violation of People's Republic of China Airspace, April 19, 1972, Box329, NPMP.
③ Memorandum of Conversation between Nixon and Zhou, February 22, 1972, Box 16/3, NPMP.
④ Memorandum of Conversation between Nixon and Zhou, February 28, 1972, Box 16/3, NPMP.
⑤ Henry Kissinger, Years of Upheaval, Boston and Toronto: Little, Brown and Company, 1982, p. 690; 陶文钊著：《中美关系史(1972-2000)》，第7页。
⑥ Memorandum of Conversation between Nixon and Mao, February 21, 1972, Box 16/3, NPMP.
⑦ 《律国以来毛泽东文稿》(第13册)，第356-357页。
⑧ Memocon by Nixon and Kissinger etc, July 19. 1971, Box 1036, NPMP.
① Memocon by Nixon and Kissinger etc, July 19, 1971, Box 1036, NPMP.
② Memorandum from Kissinger to Nixon on Warsaw Talks, February 20, 1970, Box 700, NPMP.
③ Memorandum of Conversation between Nixon and Zhou, February 28, 1972, Box 16/3, NPMP.
④ Memorandum of Conversation between Kissinger and Zhou, October 24, 1971, Box 1033, NPMP.
⑤ Ibid.
⑥ Ibid.
⑦ Memocon between Haig and Zhou, January 3, 1972, Box 1037, NPMP.
⑧ Security assistance and the Nixon Doctrine by Kissinger, August 1969, Box 324/1, NPMP.
① Memorandum from Kissinger to Nixon, July 14, 1971, Box 1033, NPMP.
② Kissinger's speech at Asian Soxiety Dinner, Plaza Hotel, New York City, May 5, 1972, Box 1026/5, NPMP.
③ [美]约翰米尔斯海默著，王义桅、唐小松译：《大国政治的悲剧》，上海：上海人民出版社，2003年版，第391页。
④ Henry Kissinger, Years of Upheavals, pp. 692-694.
① Ibid., pp. 692-694.
② Hou Tsung Chien, U.S. Policy toward China, 1912 to Present, (A dissertation), Michigan: University Microfilms International, 1986, p. 308.
③ Kissinger, White House Years, p. 1060; Yufan Hao, Dilemma and Decision: An Organizational Perspective on American China Policy, Berkeley, C. A.: Institute of East Asian Studies, 1997, p.36;陶文钊著：《中美关系史(1972-2000)》，第11页。
④ Kissinger. White House Years, pp. 1090-1091.
⑤ “浪漫三角关系”是指A、B、C三国中，A国同时与B国和C国保持友好关系，而B国与C国处于敌对关系。
⑥ [美]约翰·米尔斯海默著：《大国政治的悲剧》，第216页。
① Memocon between the President Nixon and Prime Minster Wilson, January 27, 1970, Box 1023/3, NPMP.
② Memorandum from Kissinger to Nixon, July 14, 1971, Box 1033, NPMP.
③ Kissinger, White House Years, pp. 1090-1092.
④ Ibid., pp. 191-194.
⑤ [俄]多勃雷宁著：《信赖：多勃雷宁回忆录》，第262页。
⑥ Memorandum of Conversation between Nixon and Zhou. February 28. 1972, Box 16/3.
⑦ 逢先知、金冲及主编：《毛泽东传(1949-1976)》(下)，第1671页,第1680页。
① Henry Kissinger, White House Years, pp. 1089-1092.
② 参见附录部分：《中华人民共和国和美利坚合众国联合公报》(《上海公报》)。
③ “谢尔巴科夫‘关于越南劳动党解决印度支那问题的政策与苏联根据苏共二十四大决议所面临的任务’的政治信函”，1971年5月21日。参见沈志华总主编，叶书宗主编：《苏联历史档案选编》，第460页。
① 国内也有些学者将“Taiwan Relations Act”译为“台湾关系法”，为保持行文统一，本文一律使用《与台湾关系法》。
② 如Robert S. Ross, Negotiating Cooperation: The United States and China, 1969-1989, California: Stanford University Press, 1995; Ilpyong Kim, The Strategic Triangle: China, the United States and the Soviet Union, New York: Paragon House, 1987;苏茖著：美国对华政策与台湾问题，北京：世界知识出版社，1998年版。
③ 如Barnett, A. Doak, U.S. Arms Sales: the China-Taiwan Tangle, Washington D. C.: Brookings Institutions, 1982; King-yuh Chang, ed., ROC-U.S. Relations under the Taiwan Relations Act: Practice and Prospects, Taipei: Institute of International Relations, 1988；肖元恺著：《百年之结——美国与中国台湾地区关系的历史透视》，北京：人民出版社，2001年版等。
④ 参见孙德刚：《美台准联盟关系的源起：1979—1980》，载《社会科学》，2006年第第1期，第70—80页。
① Department of State, "U.S. Policy Toward China, July 15, 1971-January 15, 1979," Selected Documents, No. 9, Office of Public Communication, Bureau of Public Affairs, 1979, p. 32.
② Tan Qingshan, The Making of U.S. China Policy: From Normalization to the Post-Cold War Era, Boulder: Lynne Rienner Publishers, 1992, pp. 26-27.
③ Robert Downen, The Taiwan Pawn in the China Game: Congress to the Rescue, Washington D.C.: The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 1979, p. 20.
④ "Diplomatic Relations between the United States and the People's Republic of China, Address to the Nation," December 15, 1978, Public papers of the Presidents of the United States, Jimmy Carter, 1978, Washington D. C.: GPO, 1979, p. 2265.
⑤ Senate Taiwan Hearings before the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations, Washington DC: GPO, 1979, pp. 35-37.
⑥ “卡特总统致电蒋经国，1978年12月16日”，参见梅孜主编：《美台关系重要资料选编：1948．11-1996．4》，北京：时事出版社，1996年版，第140页。
① “卡特总统致电蒋经国，1978年12月16日”，参见梅孜主编：《美台关系重要资料选编：1948．11-1996．4)，北京：时事出版社，1996年版，第140页。
② 台湾《中央日报》，1978年12月17日。转引自肖元恺著：《百年之结——美国与中国台湾地区关系的历史透视》，北京：人民出版社，2001年版，第179-180页。
③ “卡特总统与哥伦比亚广播公司记者的谈话，1978年12月19日，梅孜主编：《美台关系重要资料选编：1948．11-1996．4》，第140—142页。
④ David Taiwei Lee, The Making of the Taiwan RelationsAct: Twenty Years in Retrospect, Oxford and New York: Oxford University Press, 2000, p. 19.
⑤ 沈剑虹著：《使美八年纪要》，北京：世界知识出版社，1983年版，第199—201页：苏格著：美国对华政策与台湾问题，北京：世界知识出版社，1998年版，第452页：[美]陶涵著，林添贵译：《蒋经国传》，
① 1979年1月10日，美国曾通知台湾当局，美国将在台湾建立“美洲在台湾协会”的非官方机构，后来经台湾谈判代表的交涉，原来的中文译名改为“美国在台协会”。
② “美国政府宣布建立‘美国在台协会’，1979年1月16日”，梅孜主编：《美台关系重要资料选编：1948．11-1996．4》．第153—154页。
③ “Taiwan Reluctantly Agrees to Non-government US Tie,”Washington Post，February13，1979．另可参见[美]陶涵著：《蒋经国传》，第373页。
④ "Taipei to Set up New Organization to Continue Its Ties with the U S," New York Times, February 16, 1979.
① Scott Kennedy, ed., China Cross Talk: The American Debate over China Policy since Normalization, Lanham: Rowman & Littlefield Publishers, 2003, pp. 11-23.
② 苏格著：《美国对华政策与台湾问题》，第458页。
③ David N. Rowe, Ally Betrayed: The Republic of China, Alexandria, Va.: Western Goals, 1982, p, 15.
④ 又名《台湾授权法案》(Taiwan Enabling Act)。
⑤ Senate Taiwan Hearings before the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations, p. 261. 《美国国会与中美关系》，北京：新华出版社，2004年版，第168—174页。
① Senate Taiwan Hearings before the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations, pp. 15-16.
② Ibid., pp. 35—37.
③ Ibid., pp. 368—370.
④ Ibid., pp. 784—785.
⑤ Ibid., pp. 29—30.
① Ibid., pp. 29—30.
② Ibid., pp. 453—454.
③ Ibid., pp. 464—466.
④ Ibid., pp. 448-450.
① Ibid., p. 43.
② Congressional Record, March 7, 1979, Washington D. C.: GPO, 1979, p. S2132.
③ Lester L. Wolff and David L. Simon, eds., Legislative History of the Taiwan Relations Act:AnAnalytic Compilation on Subsequet Developments, Jamaica: American Association for Chinese Studies, 1982, p.19.
④ Congressional Record, March 7, 1979, p. S2117.
① Congressional Record, March 7, 1979, p. S2117.
② Congressional Record，March 8，1979，p．S2139．另可参见苏格著：《美国对华政策与台湾问题》，第470—472页。
③ Wolff and Simon, eds., Legislative History of the Taiwan Relations Act, pp.20—21.
④ Congressional Record, March 8, 1979, p. H1149.
⑤ Ibid, p. H1151.
⑥ Ibid, p. H1182.
⑦ Wolff and Simon, eds., Legislative History of the Taiwan Relations Act, pp.17—18.
① Congressional Record, March 13, 1979, p. H1255.
② Congressional Record, March 8, 1979, p. Hl151.
③ Congressional Record. March 13, 1979, p. H1266.
④ “参众两院协商委员会对《与台湾关系法》的联合解释声明，1979”，梅孜主编：《美台关系重要资料选编：1948．11-1996．4》．第177—178页。
⑤ Lester L. Wolff and David L. Simon, eds., Legislative History of the Taiwan Relations Act, p. 86; pp. 95-96.
① Lester L. Wolff and David L. Simon, eds., Legislative History of the Taiwan Relations Act, p. 86; pp. 95-96
② 《与台湾关系法》英文全义可参见Lester L．Wolff and David L．Simon，eds．，Legislative History of the Taiwan Relations Act，pp．288-295．
③ "Taiwan Conference Issue Papers," House Foreign Affairs Committee Files, 96th Session, 1st Session, 1979, Washington D. C.: GPO, 1979, p. 8.
④ Ibid., pp.17-19.
⑤ Taiwan Relations Act Conference Report, House of Representative, March 24, 1979, Washington D. C.: GPO, 1979, p. 14.
⑥ Ibid., p. 17.
⑦ Congressional Record, March 28, 1979, p. H1764. Westview Press, 1983, pp. 89-110.
① 苏格著：《美国对华政策与台湾问题》，第478—479页。
② Francis Clines, "President Invites Deal in Congress for Jobs," New York Times, December 18, 1982.
③ 下文中的“卡特—里根时期”除特别说明外，一律特指1979—1982年这四年。
④ Cyrus Vance, Hard. Choices: Critical Years in America's Foreign Policy, New York: Simon and Schuster, 1983, P. 115.
⑤ Zbigniew Brzezinski, Power and Principle: Memoirs of the National Security Advisor, 1977-1981, New York: Farrar, Straus, and Giroux, 1983, p. 231.
① Cyrus Vance, Hard Choices: Critical Years in America's Foreign Policy, New York: Simon and Schuster, 1983, p. 115.
② Zbigniew Brzezinski, Power and Principle: Memoirs of the National Security Advisor, 1977-1981, New York: Farrar, Straus, and Giroux, 1983, p. 231.
③ Jimmy Carter, Keeping Faith, New York: Bantam Boos, 1992, pp. 209-210.
④ Robert G. Sutter, The China Quandary: Domestic Determinants of U. S. China Policy, 1972-1982, pp. 145-146.
⑤ House, Subcommittee on Asian and Pacific Affairs of the Committee on Foreign Affairs, Implementation of the Taiwan Relations Act: Hearings before the Subcommittee on Asian and Pacific Affairs of the Committee on Foreign Affairs, House of Representatives, 96th Congress, 2nd Session, 1980, pp. 28-29.
⑥ Ibid．，pp．28-29．另可参见“美国会总审计局国际处处长肯尼思·法西克在参议院外委会亚太事务小组委员会上的证词，1980年5月14日”，梅孜主编：《美台关系重要资料选编：1948．11-1996．4》，第189页。
⑦ Hungdah Chiu, Hsihg-Wei Lee and Chih-Yu T. Wu, eds., Implementation of Taiwan Relations Act: An Examination after Twenty Years, Baltimore, MD.: University of Maryland, 2001, p. 24.
⑧ Dennis Van Vranken Hickey, United States-Taiwan Security lies: From Cold War to beyond Containment, Westport, C. T.: Praeger Publishers, 1993, p. 31.
⑨ World Military Expenditures and Arms Transfers, 1972-1982, Washington D. C.: GPO, 1984, p. 64.
⑩ Jaw-Ling Joanne Chang and William W. Bayer, eds., United States-Taiwan Relations: Twenty Years After the
① 梅孜主编：《美台关系重要资料选编：1948．11-1996．4》，第22-23页。
② [美]陶涵著：《蒋经国传》，第373-374页。
③ 沈剑虹著：《使美八年纪要》，第213页。
④ 肖元恺著：《百年之结——美国与中国台湾地区关系的历史透视》，第210页。另可参见Robert L．Downen，The Tattered China Card: Reality of Illusion in United Strategy? Washington D．C．：Council for Social and Economic Studies，1984，pp．75-76．
⑤ [美]陶涵著：《蒋经国传》，第398页。
⑥ 宫力著：《峰谷间的震荡：1979年以来的中美关系》，北京：中国青年出版社，1996年版，第61、64、69页。
⑦ Ramon Hawley Myers, ed., A Unique Relationship: The United States and the Republic of China Under the Taiwan Relations Act, Stanford: Hoover Institution Press, 1989, p. 67.
⑧ Alexander Jr. Haig, Caveat: Realism, Reagan and Foreign Policy,, New York: Macmillan, 1984, p. 208.
① "Letter to Premier Zhao Ziyang of the People's Republic of China on the 10th Anniversary of the Shanghai Communiqué, February 28, 1982," Public papers of the Presidents of the United States, Arnold Reagan, 1982, p.234.
② Wolff and Simon, eds., Legislative History of the Taiwan Relations Act, pp. 323-324.
③ US Congress, Senate, Committee on Foreign Relations, "US Policy toward China and Taiwan, Hearings," 97th Congress, 2nd Session, August 17, 1982, p. 3.
④ Public papers of the Presidents of the United States, Ronald Reagan, 1982, p. 1054.
① Steven W. Mosher, ed., The United States and the Republic of China: Democratic Friends, Strategic Allies and Economic Partners, New Brunswick, N. J.: Transaction Publishers, 1992, p. 107.
② "Remarks at a Meeting with Republican Congressional Candidates," October 6, 1982, Public papers of the Presidents of the United States, Ronald Reagan, 1982, p. 1274.
③ Public papers of the Presidents of the United States, Jimmy Carter, 1979, p. 257.
④ Public papers of the Presidents of the United States, Ronald Reagan, 1983, p. 1646.
⑤ 梅孜主编：《美台关系重要资料选编：1948．11-1996．4》，第154-155页。
⑥ Lai To Lee, The Reunification of China: PRC-Taiwan Relations in Flux, New York: Praeger Publishers, 1991, pp. 62-65.
① House, Hearings on Implementation of the Taiwan Relations Act, 96th Congress, 1st Session, pp. 66-67.
② Senate, Committee on Foreign Affairs, Hearings on Implementation of the Taiwan Relations Act: The First Year, 96th Congress, 1st Session, November 8, 1979, pp. 66-67.
③ King-yuh Chang, ed., ROC-U. S. Relations under the Taiwan Relations Act: Practice and Prospects, Taipei: Institute of International Relations, 1988, p. 29.
④ US Department of State, Office of Treaty Affairs, Treaties in Force, Washihgton D.C.: US GPO, 1987, pp. 1558-1559.
⑤ Robert L. Downen, Of Grave Concern: US-Taiwan Relations on the Threshold of the 1980s, Washington D. C.: Georgetown University Press, Center for Strategic and International Studies, 1981, p. 61.
⑥ Haig, Caveat, p.200.
⑦ 陶文钊著：《中美关系史(1972-2000)》，上海：上海人民出版社，2004年版，第110-111页。
① House, Implementation of the Taiwan Relations Act, 96th Congress, 1st Session, 1979, p. 42.
② Senate, Committee on Foreign Relations, Hearings on Taiwan Relations Act, 96th Congress, 1st Session, 1979, p.778.
③ Jen-Kun Fu, Taiwan and the Geopolitics of the Asian-American Dilemma, Westport: Praeger Publishers, 1992, p.82.
④ Senate Taiwan Hearings before the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations, Washington DC: GPO, 1979, pp. 463-464.
① Lee, The Reunification of China, p. 62.
② Jen-Kun Fu, Taiwan and the Geopolitics of the Asian-American Dilemma, p. 80.
③ Hungdah Chiu, Hsing-Wei Lee and Chih-Yu T. Wu, eds., Implementation of Taiwan Relations Act: An Examination after Twenty Years, p. 223,
① King-yuh Chang ed., ROC-U. S. Relations under the Taiwan Relations Act, p. 29.
② Chiu, Lee and T. Wu, eds., Implementation of Taiwan Relations Act, p. 231
③ Leonard Unger, "The Cultural Intermingling of China and America," Sino-American Relations, Vol. 6, No. 2, Summer 1980, p. 33.
④ Ramon Hawley Myers. ed., A Unique Relationship, p. 156.
⑤ 肖元恺著：《百年之结——美国与中国台湾地区关系的历史透视》，第221页。
⑥ King-yuh Chang ed., ROC-U. S. Relations under the Taiwan Relations Act, p. 118.
⑦ Chiu, Lee and Wu, eds., Implementation of Taiwan Relations Act, p. 233.
① David N. Rowe, Ally Betrayed: The Republic of China, p. 44.
① US Department of State Bulletin, Vol. 66, 1972, Washington D. C.: US GPO, 1972, p.2022.
② Congressional and Administrative News, 96th Congress, 1st Session, 1979, p. 88.
③ Senate Taiwan Hearings, 1979, pp. 706-707.
④ Taiwan Relations Act: Conference Report Accompanying House of Representatives, 96th Congress, 1st Session, 1979, pp. 7-8.
⑤ A. James Gregor and Maria Hsia Chang, The Republic of China and the U.S. Policy, Washington D.C.: Ethics and Public Policy Center, 1983, p. 41.
① A. James Gregor and Maria Hsia Chang, The Republic of China and the U.S. Policy, Washington D. C.: Ethics and Public Policy Center, 1983, p. 41.
② Taiwan Relations Act: Conference ReportAccompanying House of Representatives, p.586.
③ Congressional Record, March 7, 1979, p. S2163.
④ Hans J. Morgenthau and Kenneth W. Thompson, Politics Among Nations: The Struggle for Power and Peace, New Delhi: Kalyani Publishers, 1985, p. 5.
① Downen, The Tattered China Card, pp. 75-76.
② Martin L. Lasater, The Taiwan Conundrum in U. S. China Policy, Boulder: Westview Press, 2000, p. 51.
③ Senate Committee Hearings, 96th Congress, 1st Session, 1979, p. 649.
④ Ibid., p. 439.
⑤ Congressional Record, March 13, 1979, p. H1256.
⑥ U. S. Congress, Senate, "U. S. Policy toward China and Taiwan, Hearings before the Committee on Foreign Relations," 97th Congress, 2nd Session, 1982, p. 3.
① "Taiwan Legislation," Hearings before the House Committee on Foreign Affairs, 96th Congress, 1st Session, 1979, pp. 20-21.
② Tom W. Smith, "The Poll's: American Attitudes towards the Soviet Union and Communism," Public Opinion Quarterly, Vol. 47, 1983, p. 281.
③ Ole R. Holsti and James N. Rosenau, Araerican Leadership in World Affairs: Vietnam and the Breakdown of Consensus, Boston: Allen & Unwin, 1984, p. 231.
④ Congressional Record, March 13, 1979, p. H1279.
⑤ Rowe, Ally Betrayed, p. 51.
① Sutter, The China Quandary, p. 53.
② Gallop Opinion Index Report, January 1980, Washington D. C.: US GPO, 1980, pp. 37-38.
③ Public Papers of the Presidents of the United States, Ronald Reagan, 1981, p. 1646.
④ Michael Hunt, Ideology and U. S. Foreign Policy, New Haven: Yale University Press, 1987, p. 186.
⑤ "Statement on Singing H. R. 2479 Into Law," April 10, 1979, Public Papers of the Presidents of the United States, Jimmy Carter, 1979, p. 641.
⑥ Chen Jie, Ideology in U. S. Foreign Policy: Case Studies in U. S. China Policy, Westport: Praeger Publishers, 1995, p. 100.
⑦ James Mann, About Face: A History of America "s Curious Relationship with China, from Nixon to Clinton, New York: Knopf, 1999, p. 115.
① James Mann, About Face: A History of America's Curious Relationship with China, fi'om Nixon to Clinton, New York: Knopf, 1999, p. 115.
② Martin L. Lasater, Policy in Evolution: The U. S. Role in China "s Reunification, Boulder: Westview Press, 1989, p. 41, The President s Ne s Conference, June 16, 1981, Pubhc Papers of the Presidents of the United States, Ronald Reagan, 1981, p. 526.
③ 梅孜主编：《美台关系重要资料选编：1948．11．1996．4》，第270页。
④ American Council for Free China, Press Release, Washington D. C.: US GPO, June 21, 1981; Lasater, Policy in Evolution, p. 79.
① Senate Taiwan Hearings, February 6, 1979, 96th Congress, 1st Session, 1979, p. 549.
② Elizabeth Van Wie Dabis, Chinese Perspectives on Sino-American Relations, 1950-2000, Lewiston: E. Mellen Press, 2000, p. 135.
① Karl W. Deutsch and Morton A. Kaplan, "The Limits of International Coalitions," in Julian R. Friedman, Christopher Bladen, and Steven Rosen, eds., Alliance in International Politics, Boston, Mass.: Allyn and Bacon, Inc., 1970, p. 278.
② Benjamin I. Page, "The Theory of Political Ambiguity," The American Political Science Review, Vol. 76, 1982, p. 742.
③ Barry Rubin and Thomas A. Keaney, eds., USAllies in A Changing World, London: FRANK CASS, 2001, p. 226.
④ Lee, The Reunification of China, p.62.
① Lee. The Making of the Taiwan Relations Act, p. 185.
② [美]约翰·米尔斯海默著，王义桅、唐小松译：《大国政治的悲剧》，上海：上海人民出版社，2003年版，第220页。
③ James Shen, The United States and Free China: How the US Sold out Its Ally, Washington D. C.: Acropolis Books, 1983, p. 243. 第220页。
① James Shen, The United States and Free China: How the US Sold out Its Ally, Washington D. C.: Acropolis Books, 1983, p. 243.
② "The President's News Conference of January 17, 1979," Public Papers of the Presidents of the United States, Jimmy Carter; 1979, p. 257.
③ Myers, ed., A Unique Relationship, p. 37.
④ Senate Taiwan Hearings, 96th Congress, 1st Session, 1979, p. 11.
⑤ Oversight of Taiwan Relations Act: Hearings before the Subcommittee on East Asia and Pacific Affairs, 96th Congress, 1st Session, 1979, p. 13.
⑥ House, Implementation of the Taiwan Relations Act: Hearings before the Subcommittee on Foreign Affairs, 96th Congress, 2nd Session, 1980, p. 6.
① Hickey, United States-Taiwan Security Ties, p. 34.
② "Remarks on Receiving the Council's Final Report," December 22, 1980, Public Papers of the Presidents of the United States, Jimmy Carter, 1980-81, p. 2828.
③ "Message to the Congress on Trade with Romania, Hungary and People's Republic of China," June 2, 1981, Public Papers of the Presidents of the United States, Ronald Reagan, 1981, p. 479.
④ 这就是“卡特主义”。参见Robert S. Ross, Negotiating Cooperation: The United States and China, 1969-1989, Stanford: Stanford University Press, 1995, p. 165.
⑤ 1980年波兰国内局势动荡，苏联以此为借口封锁了民主德国与波兰的边界，并与东欧社会主义国家学行联合军事演习。以美国为首的西方国家警告苏联不要入侵波兰。
⑥ American Foreign Policy: Current Documents, 1981, Washington D. C: US GPO, 1984, p. 545.
⑦ "The President's News Conference," June 16, 1981, Public Papers of the Presidents of the United States, Ronald Reagan, 1981, p. 526.
① American Foreign Policy: Current Documents, 1981, Washington D.C: US GPO, 1984, p. 545.
② "The President's News Conference," June 16, 1981, Public Papers of the Presidents of the United States, Ronald Reagan, 1981, p. 526.
③ American Foreign Policy: Current Documents, 1981, pp. 948-949.
④ Haig, Caveat, p. 199.
⑤ 梅孜主编：《美台关系重要资料选编：1948．11-1996．4》，第218-219页。
① 肖元恺著：《百年之结——美国与中国台湾地区关系的历史透视》，第187页。
① 如Lawrence Freedman and Efraim Karsh, The Gulf Conflict, 1990-1991: Diplomacy and War in the New World Order, Princeton, New Jersey: Princeton University Press, 1993; M. Weller, ed., Iraq and Kuwait." The Hostilities and Their Aftermath, Cambridge: Grotius Publications, 1993等。
② 如Anthony H. Cordesman and Abraham R. Wagner, The Lessons of Modern War: The Gulf War, Boulder, Colo.: Westview Press, 1996; Head, William and Earl H. Tilford, Jr., The Eagle in the Desert: Looking. Back on U. S. Involvement in the Persian Gulf War, Westport and London: Praeger, 1991等。
③ 如Dennis Van Vranken Hickey, United States-Taiwan Security lies: From Cold War to beyond Containment, Westport, C. T.: Praeger Publishers, 1993; Alex Danchev, ed., International Perspectives on the Gulf Conflict, 1990-91, Oxford: St. Martin's Press, 1994; Robert J Art and Patrick M. Cronin, eds., The United States and Coercive Diplomacy, Washington D.C.: United States Institute of Peace Press, 2003等。
① Jean Smith, George Bush's War, New York: Henry Holt, 1992, p. 14; George Bush and Brent Scowcroft, A World Transformed, New York: Knopf, 1998, p. 319.
① Jean Smith, George Bush's War, New York: Henry Holt, 1992, p. 14; George Bush and Brent Scowcroft, A World Transformed, New York: Knopf, 1998, p. 319.
② "Remarks and a Question-and-Answer Session with Reporters in Aspen, Colorado, Following a Meeting with Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher of the United Kingdom, August 2, 1990, Public Papers of the Presidents of the United States, George Bush, 1990, p. 1085.
③ Ihid.
④ 分析美国在海湾战争中决策过程的文章较多，例如Steve A．Yetiv，“Testing the Government Politics Model：U．S．Decision Making in the 1990-91Persian Gulf Crisis，”Security Studies，Vol．11，No．2，2001，pp．50-84．
① Lawrence Freedman and Efraim Karsh, The Gulf Conflict, 1990-1991: Diplomacy and War in the New World Order, Princeton, New Jersey: Princeton University Press, 1993, p. 76.
② Ibid.
③ "Message to the Congress on the Declaration of a National Emergency with Respect to Iraq," August 3, 1990, Public Papers of the Presidents of the United States, George Bush, 1990, p. 1095.
④ 贝内特等人认为，支持美国发动海湾战争的国家主要有英国、埃及、法国、德国、日本等，它们参与战争的行为可以同时用集体行动理论(Collective Action)、威胁平衡理论(Balance of Threat)和联盟依赖理论(Alliance Dependence)来解释。Andrew Bennett，Joseph Lepgold and Danny Unger，“Burden-Sharing in the Persian Gulf War，”Internationa，Organization，Vol．48，No．1，Winter 1994，pp．39-75．
⑤ Bush and Scoweroft, A Worm Transformed, p. 319.
⑥ E. Lauterpacht, ed., The Kuwait Crisis: Basic Documents, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1995, pp. 99-100.
⑦ John Pimlott and Stephen Badsey, The Gulf War Assessed, London: Arms and Armor Press, 1992, p. 136.
⑧ 除美国、苏联、英国、法国和中国五个安理会常任理事国外，海湾危机爆发时非常任理事国分别是：古巴、也门、加拿大、芬兰、哥伦比亚、埃塞俄比亚、马来西亚、科特迪瓦(象牙海岸)、扎伊尔和罗马尼亚。
① E. Lauterpacht, ed., The Kuwait Crisis: Basic Documents, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1995, pp. 99-100.
② John Pimlott and Stephen Badsey, The Gulf War Assessed, London: Arms and Armor Press, 1992, p. 136.
③ 除美国、苏联、英国、法国和中国五个安理会常任理事国外，海湾危机爆发时非常任理事国分别是：古巴、也门、加拿大、芬兰、哥伦比亚、埃塞俄比亚、马米西亚、科特迪瓦(象牙海岸)、扎伊尔和罗马尼亚。
④ Lauterpacht, ed., The Kuwait Crisis, pp.102-103．
⑤ Anthony H. Cordesman and Abraham R. Wagner, The Lessons of Modern War: The Gulf War, Boulder, Colo.: Westview Press, 1996, p.51.
⑥ Freedman and Karsh, The Gulf Conflict 1990-1991, p. 141.
⑦ "Statement by Press Secretary Fitzwater on Japanese Economic Sanctions Against lraq,"August 5, 1990, Public Papers of the Presidents of the United States, George Bush, 1990, p. 1100.
① Lauterpacht, ed., The Kuwait Crisis, pp. 108-109.
② Bush and Scowcroft, A World Transformed, p. 303.
③ Haim Bresheeth and Nira Yuval-Davis, eds., The Gulf War and the New World Order, London and New Jersey: Zed Books Ltd, 1991, p. 32.
④ Alex Danchdv and Dan Keohane, eds., International Perspective on the Gulf Conflict, 1990-1991, Oxford: St. Martin's Press, 1994, p. 138.
⑤ David Hoffman, "Coalition Diplomacy," in David Newsom, ed., The Diplomatic Record: 1990-1991, Boulder: Westview Press, 1992, p. 61.
① David Hoffman, "Coalition Diplomacy," in David Newsom, ed., The Diplomatic Record: 1990-1991, Boulder: Westview Press, 1992, p. 61.
② Freedman and Karsh, The Gulf Conflict 1990-1991, p. 78.
③ Lauterpacht, ed., The Kuwait Crisis., p. 103.
④ Nichol, Iraq-Kuwait Crisis, p. 2.
⑤ Freedman and Karsh, The Gulf Conflict1990-1991, p. 80.
⑥ Jim Nichol, Iraq-Kuwait Crisis: Soviet Response, Washington D.C.: Congressional Research Service, August 17, 1990, pp. 3-4.
⑦ William Head and Earl H. Tilford Jr., eds., The Eagle in the Desert, London and Westport: Praeger, 1996, p. 25.
⑧ Nichol, Iraq-Kuwait Crisis, p. 2.
① Bush and Scoweroft, A World Transformed, p. 314.
② James Blackwell, Thunder in the Desert: The Strategy and the Tactics of the Persian Gulf War, New York: Bantam Books, 1991, p. 86.
③ Freedman and Karsh, The Gulf Conflict 1990-1991, p. 86.
④ William Hale, "Turkey, the Middle East and the Gulf Crisis," International Affairs, Vol. 68, No. 4, 1992, p. 683.
⑤ Pimlott and Badsey, The Gulf War Assessed, p. 42.
⑥ Itamar Robinovieh, "External Pressures, Internal Strains-- The Middle East in 1990," the RUSIJournal, Winter 1990, p. 46.
⑦ Yezid Sayidh, "The Gulf Crisis: Why the Arab Regional Order Failed," International Affairs, Vol. 67, No. 3, 1991, pp. 487-507.
⑧ Pierre Salinger and Eric Laurent, Secret Dossier: The Hidden Agenda behind the Gulf War, London: Penguin Books, 1991, p. 31.
① Pierre Salinger and Eric Laurent, Secret Dossier: The Hidden Agenda behind the Gulf War, London: Penguin Books, 1991, p. 31.
② Head and Tilford, eds., The Eagle in the Desert, p. 29.
③ Woodward, The Commanders, p. 254.
④ H. Norman Schwarzkopf and Peter Petre, The Autobiography: It Doesn't TakeA Hero, London: Bantam Press, 1992, pp. 305-317.
⑤ "Address to the Nation Announcing the Deployment of US Armed Forces to Saudi Arabia, August 8, 1990, Public Papers of the Presidents of the United States, George Bush, 1990, p. 1107; Michah Sifry and Christopher Cerf, ed., The Gulf War Reader: History, Documents, Opinions, New York: Random House, 1991, pp. 197-199.
⑥ Woodward, The Commanders, pp. 255-276.
⑦ Jeseph P. Englehardt, Desert Shield and Desert Storm: A Chronology and Troop List for the 1990-1991 Persian Gulf Crisis, Carliscle, Pa.: Strategic Studies Institute, March 1991, p. 15.
① "Statement by Press Secretary Fitzwater on the Arab League's Statement on the Persian Gulf Crisis," August 10, 1990, Public Papers of the Presidents of the United States, George Bush, 1990, p. 1123.
② "Excerpts of a Statement by Press Secretary Fitzwater on the Persian Gulf Crisis," August 11, 1990, Public Papers of the Presidents of the United States, George Bush, 1990, p. 1124.
③ George C. Herring, America's Longest War: The United States and Vietnam, 1950-1975, New York: Knoll, 1986, p. 353.
④ Schwarzkopf and Petre, The Autobiography, PP. 317-320.
⑤ Department of Defense, Conduct of the Persian Gulf War: Final Report, Washington D.C.: GPO, 1992, p. 93.
⑥ Cordesman and Wagner, The Lessons of Modern War, p.82.
⑦ Robert H. Scales, Certain Victory, Washington D. C.: Office of the Chief of Staff of the US Army, 1993, pp.
① Cordesman and Wagner, The Lessons of Modern War, p.82.
② Robert H. Scales, Certain Victory, Washington D. C.: Office of the Chief of Staff of the US Army, 1993, pp. 142-145.
③ Bennett, Lepgnld and Unger, "Burden-Sharing in the Persian Gulf War," p. 56.
④ Cordesman and Wagner, The Lessons of Modern War, p.84.
⑤ Thomas A. Keaney and Eliot A. Cohen, GulfWarAir Power Survey: Summary Report, Washington D. C.: The Department of theAir Force, 1993, pp. 188-189.
⑥ Cordesman and Wagner, The Lessons of Modern War, pp.84-85.
① Englehardt，Desert Shield and Desert Storm，p．67．当然，不同文献对准联盟行为体总数和战斗人员人数的统计存在差别。据另一项统计，除美国外，共有28个国家提供了陆海空三军，战斗人数25.5万人，战舰64艘，飞机650架，坦克1300辆。参见Brent J．Talbot，Cooperative Security in the Era of US Primacy：Exloring the Leader-Follower Relationship During Coalition Operations，(A Dissertation)，Ann Arbor：UMI，2003，p．78．
② 德国的18架飞机全部部署在土耳其。
① "Address to the People of Iraq on the Persian Gulf Crisis," September 16, 1990, Public Papers of the Presidents of the United States, George Bush, 1990, p. 1239.
② "Remarks to Department of Defense Employees," August 15, 1990, Public Papers of the Presidents of the United States, George Bush, 1990, p. 1138.
③ "Excerpt of a Statement by Press Secretary Fitzwater on Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev's Endorsement of United States Economic Sanctions Against Iraq," August 25, 1990, Public Papers of the Presidents of the United States, George Bush, 1990, p. 1165.
④ Freedman and Karsh, The Gulf Conflict, 1990-1991, p. 228.
① 邢广程著：《苏联高层决策70年——从列宁到戈尔巴乔夫》(第五分册)，北京：世界知识出版社，1998年版，第291页。
② "Soviet Union-United States Joint Statement on the Persian Gulf Crisis," September 9, 1990, Public Papers of the Presidents of the United States, George Bush, 1990, p. 1203.
③ Freedman and Karsh, The Gulf Conflict, 1990-1991, p. 231.
④ Bush and Scowcroft, A World Transformed, pp. 403-404.
⑤ "Exchange with Reporters Prior to a Meeting with Presidents Mikhail Gorbachev of the Soviet Union in Paris France, November 19. 1990, Public Papers of the Presidents of the United States, George Bush, 1990, pp. 1645-1646.
⑥ "Lillian Craig Haris, "The Gulf Crisis and China's Middle East Dilemma," The Pacific Review, Vol. 4, No. 2, 1991, p. 65.
① "Lillian Craig Haris, "The Gulf Crisis and China's Middle East Dilemma," The Pacific Review, Vol. 4, No. 2, 1991, p. 65.
② 当然，有些国外学者认为中国同苏联郁是反伊统一战线的成员，只不过苏联是主动支持者，中国是被动支持者。参见Head and Tilford Jr．，eds．，The Eagle in the Desert，pp．32-33．
③ "Remarks and a Question-and-Answer Session with Reporters in Kennebunkport, Maine, Following a Meeting with Prime Minister Brian Mulroney of Canada," August 27, 1990, Public Papers of the Presidents of the United States, George Bush, 1990, p. 1166.
④ "The President's News Conference," November 30, 1990, Public Papers of the Presidents of the United States, George Bush, 1990, p. 1719.
⑤ "Statement by Press Secretary Fitzwater on Japanese Economic Sanctions Against Iraq," August 5, 1990, Public Papers of the Presidents of the United States, George Bush, 1990, p. 1100.
① Lawrence Freedman and Efraim Karsh, The Gulf Conflict, 1990-1991, p. 123.
② "Remarks at a Fundraising Luncheon for Cubernatorial Candidate Pete Wilson in San Francisco, California," September 19, 1990, Public Papers of the Presidents of the United States, George Bush, 1990, p. 1260.
③ Freedman and Karsh, The Gulf Conflict, 1990-1991, p. 118.
④ International Herald Tribune, September 10, 1990.
⑤ Cohen, ed., Gulf War Air Power Survey, p. 45.
⑥ See "Remarks at a Fundraising Luncheon for Cubernatorial Candidate Pete Wilson in San Francisco, California," September 19, 1990, Public Papers of the Presidents of the United States, George Bush, 1990, p. 1260; Bennett, Andrew, Joseph Lepgold and Danny Unger, "Burden-Sharing in the Persian Gulf War," p. 66.
① See "Remarks at a Fundraising Luncheon for Cubernatorial Candidate Pete Wilson in San Francisco, California," September 19, 1990, Public Papers of the Presidents of the United States, George Bush, 1990, p. 1260; Bennett, Andrew, Joseph Lepgold and Danny Unger, "Burden-Sharing in the Persian Gulf War," p. 66.
② International Institute for Strategic Studies, The Military Balance, 1991-1992, London: International Institute for Strategic Studies, 1991, p. 242.
③ New York Times, November 15, 1990.
④ Marcia Lynn Whicker, James P. Pfiffner and Raymond A. Moore, eds., The Presidency and the Persian Gulf War, Westport and London: Praeger, 1993, pp. 425-426.
① James R. Schlesinger, General David Jones and Admiral William Crove Jr., "Crisis in the Persian Gulf Region: US Policy Options and Implications," 101st Congress, 2nd Session, November 27-28, 1990, Congressional Record, 1990, Washington D.C.: GPO, 1992, pp.113-257.
② Ibid.
③ Ted Galen Carpenter, "US Policy in the Persian Gulf," December 1990, Congressional Record, 1990, p. 258.
④ James R. Schlesinger, etc., "Crisis in the Persian Gulf Region: US Policy Options and Implications," Congressional Record, 1990, p.116.
⑤ Michael Howard, "Why United Nations Sanctions Are Better than a Prolonged War, The Times, August 17, 1990.
⑥ Hermann Eilts, former US Ambassador to Egypt and Saudi Arabia, House Hearings, "Crisis in the Persian Gulf, "Congressional Record, 1990, p. 610.
⑦ Sam Nunn, "Crisis in the Persian Gulf Region: US Policy Options and Implications," Congressional Record, 1990, pp.113-257.
① Sam Nunn, "Crisis in the Persian Gulf Region: US Policy Options and Implications," Congressional Record, 1990, pp.113-257.
② "Statement by Press Secretary on President Bush's Telephone Conversations with Foreign Leaders, November 30, 1990, Public Papers of the Presidents of the United States, George Bush, 1990, p. 1729.
③ Bush and Scowcroft, A World Transformed, p. 446. Washington D. C.: GPO, 1991, pp.4-5.
① Ofra Bengio, Saddam Speaks on the Gulf Crisis: A Collection of Documents, Tel-Aviv: TeI-Aviv University Press, 1992, pp. 114-115.
② Bush and Scoweroft, A World Transformed, p. 329.
③ Freedman and Karsh, The Gulf Conflict, 1990-1991, p. 89.
④ "Remarks and an Exchange with Reporters on the Iraqi Invasion of Kuwait," August 5, 1990, Public Papers of the Presidents of the United States, George Bush, 1990, p. 1101.
⑤ Woodward, The Commanders, pp. 258-259.
① Pimlott and Badsey, The Gulf War Assessed, p. 42.
② Bush and Scowcroft, A Worm Transformed, pp. 321-325.
③ 这一术语的来源可参见Michael Brenner，“The Alliance：A Gulf Post-Mortem，”International Affairs，Vol．67，No．4，1991，p．674．
④ "Address to the Nation Announcing the Deployment of United States Armed Forces to Saudi Arabia," August 8, 1990, Public Papers of the Presidents of the United States, George Bush, 1990, p. 1108.
⑤ Bresheeth and Yuval-Davis, eds., The Gulf War and the New Worm Order, p. 253.
⑥ Bennett, Lepgold and Unger, "Burden-Sharing in the Persian Gulf War," p. 50.
① "Remarks and an Exchange with Reporters on the Iraqi Invasion of Kuwait," August 2, 1990, Public Papers of the Presidents of the United States, George Bush, 1990, p.1083.
② Bush and Scowcroft, A World Transformed, p. 319.
③ "Soviet Union- United States Joint Statement on the Persian Gulf Crisis," September 9, 1990, Public Papers of the Presidents of the United States, George Bush, 1990, p. 1204.
④ Danchev and Keohane, eds., International Perspective on the Gulf Conflict, 1990-1991, p. 136.
⑤ Pimlott and Badsey, The Gulf War Assessed, p. 50.
⑥ Hale, "Turkey, the Middle East and the Gulf Crisis," p. 684.
⑦ Freedman and Karsh, The Gulf Conflict 1990-1991, p. 6.
① Hale, "Turkey, the Middle East and the Gulf Crisis," p. 684.
② Freedman and Karsh, The Gulf Conflict 1990-1991, p. 6.
③ International Institute for Strategic Studies, The Military Balance, 1991-1992, p. 242.
④ Bennett, Lepgold and Unger, "Burden-Sharing in the Persian Gulf War," p. 58.
⑤ Head and Tilford, eds., The Eagle in the Desert, p. 31.
⑥ Bresheeth and Yuval-Davis, eds., The Gulf War and the New World Order, p. 9.
⑦ Pimlott and Badsey, The Gulf War Assessed, p. 52. 61.
① Edwin Fedder. "The Concept of Alliance," International Studies Quarterly, Vol. 12, No. 1,1986, p. 86.
② 也有学者认为，日本加入反伊准联盟除了维护石油利益外，还希望增加在国际上的影响力，特别是在亚洲的领导权。Talbot，Cooperative Security in the Era of US Primacy，p．224．
③ "Address Before a Joint Session of the Congress of the State of the Union, anuary 29, 1991, Public Papers of the Presidents of the United States, George Bush, 1991, Washington D. C.: United States GPO, 1992, p. 74.
④ Stephen M. Walt, The Origins of Alliances, Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 1987, p. 34.
⑤ Woodward, The Commanders, p. 407.
⑥ Leigh Bruce, "Britain's Dogged Attitudes," International Herald Tribune, January 31, 1991.
⑦ 当然，也有学者认为美国的盟友参与海湾战争主要是因为它们对美国的依赖(Dependence)大于它们对受到美国牵连的担心。参见Bennett，Lepgold and．Unger，“Burden-Sharing in the Persian Gulf War，”p．44．
⑧ Danchev and Keohan，eds．，International Perspectives on the Gulf Conflict，1990-91，p．187．
① 当然，也有学者认为美国的盟友参与海湾战争主要是因为它们对美国的依赖(Dependence)大于它们对受到美国牵连的担心。参见Bennett，Lepgold and Unger，“Burden-Sharing in the Persian Gulf War，”p．44．
② Danchev and Keohan, eds., International Perspectives on the Gulf Conflict, 1990-91, p. 187.
③ "Appendix," Public Papers of the Presidents of the United States, George Bush, 1990, p. 1832.
④ Viberto Selochan ed., The Gulf War: Issues and lmplications for Australia andAsia, Queensland: Griffith Univeristy Press, 1992, p. 32.
⑤ Sydney Morning Herald, January 24, 1991.
⑥ Mohammed Ayub Kahn, "The Pakistan-American Alliance: Stresses and Strains," Foreign Affairs, Vol. 42, January 1964, pp. 196-199.
① John Pimlott and Stephen Badsey, The Gulf War Assessed, p. 52.
② Haim Bresheeth and Nira Yuval-Davis, eds., The Gulf War and the New World Order, p. 81.
③ Danchev and Keohane, eds., International Perspective on the Gulf Conflict, 1990-1991, p. 140.
④ Woodward, The Commanders, p.338.
① Danchev and Keohane, eds., International Perspective on the Gulf Conflict, 1990-1991, p. 140.
② Woodward, The Commanders, p.338.
③ Lawrence E. Cline, "Defending the End: Decision Making in Terminating the Persian Gulf War," Comparative Strategy, Vol. 17, No. 4, 1998, p. 371.
④ 有限战争并不意味着“小战”。“有限”不仅体现在战争规模上，而且体现在政治目标上。有限战争主要有以下三个特征。一、从规模上来看，有限战争不是世界大战，它是在有限的地域范围内的一场局部战争；二、从政治目标来看，有限战争并不追求敌人无条件投降，或者将侵略者彻底打垮、消灭，而只追求有限的目标，如迫使敌人撤军、谈判等；三、从军事手段来看，有限战争选择使用一定的武器和打击目标。参见G．Van Rentham and Van der Bergh，“Limited War，”in Ervin Laszlo and Jong Youl Yoo．eds．，World Encyclopedia of Peace，Vol．1，Oxford：Pergamon Press，1986，pp．541-542．
⑤ George Bush, "Go the Extra Mile for Peace," International Herald Tribune, December 2, 1990.
⑥ Representative Les Aspin, "The Military Option: The Conduct and Consequences of War in the Persian Gulf," January 8, 1991, 101st Congress, 2nd Session, Congressional Record, Washington D.C.: GPO, 1992, p. 916.
⑦ "Address to the Nation Announcing Allied Military Action in the Persian Gulf," January 16, 1991, Public Papers of the Presidents of the United States, George Bush, 1991, pp. 43-44.
① Liska, Nations in Alliance, p. 13.
② "President Warns Israel, Criticizes US, April 1, 1990," in Ofra Bengio ed., Saddam Speaks on the Gulf Crisis: A Collection of Documents, pp. 50-61; Erairn Karsh and Inari Rautsi, Saddam Hussein: A Political Biography, London: Brassey's, 1991, pp. 207-211.
③ Washington Post, January 10, 1991.
① Washington Post, January 10, 1991.
② New York limes, September 25, 1990.
③ "Saddam Hussein's Speech on 'Linkage'," August 23, 1990, in Ofra Bengio ed., Saddam Speaks on the Gulf Crisis: A Collection of Documents, p. 125.
④ Danchev and Keohane, eds., International Perspective on the Gulf Conflict, 1990-1991, p. 72.
⑤ Salinger and Laurent, Secret Dossier, pp. 186-191.
① Ibid., p. 325.
② Freedman and Karsh, The Gulf Conflict, 1990-1991, p. 155.
③ Ibid., p. 159.
④ Bush and Scowcroft, A World Transformed, p. 406.
⑤ Freedman and Karsh, The Gulf Conflict, 1990-1991, p. 250.
① Freedman and Karsh, The Gulf Coflict, 1990-1991, p.250．
② 这里的“多边主义”(Multilateralism)是指众多国家为了共同利益和共同目标而采取的共同行动。参见Bertele and Mey,“Unilateralism in Theory and Practice，”p．198．
③ 军事科学院军事历史研究部：《海湾战争全史》，第147页。
① 反恐统一战线和意愿联合按照严格界定应该是“Coalition”而不是“Alliance”，因为二者不是根据正式盟约进行的安全合作，它们实际上属临时准联盟。
② 如Stephen Jukes, Under Fire: Untold Stories from the Front Line of the Iraq War, Upper Saddle River, NJ: Reuters Prentice Hall, 2004; James Carroll, Crusade: Chronicles of an Unjust War, New York: Metropolitan Books, 20o4等。
③ 如Williamson Murray and Robert H. Scales, Jr., The Iraq War: A Military History, Cambridge: The Belknap Press, 2003; Anthony H. Cordesman, The Iraq War: Strategy, Tactics, and Military Lessons, Washington D. C.: Center for Strategic and Interaational Studies Press, 2003等。
④ 如David Harvey, The New Imperialism, Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2003; Gerhard Beestermoller and David Little, eds., lraq: Threat and Response, London: Transaction Publishers, 2003等。
⑤ George F. Liska, Nations in Alliance: The Limits of Interdependence, Baltimore: Johns Hopkins Press, 1968, p. 21.
⑥ See Michael L. Silty and Christopher Cerf, eds., Iraq War Reader: History, Documents, Opinions, New York: Simon & Schuster, 2003; Weekly Compilation of Presidential Documents, Vol. 37-40, 2001-2004, Washington DC: United States GPO, 2001-2004.
⑦ See David From. The Right Man: The Surprise Presidency of George W. Bush, New York: Random House, 2003.
⑧ 本章中所提到的小布什指的是继克林顿之后入主白宫的George W．Bush。
⑨ 小布什曾经在许多场合提及萨达姆在海湾战争结束后曾企图暗杀具父杀布什。参见Saul Laudau，The Pre-emptive Empire：A Guide to Bush’s Kingdom，London：Pluto Press，2003，P．197．
① 本章中所提到的小布什指的是继克林顿之后入后白宫的George W．Bush。
② 小布什曾经在许多场合提及萨达姆在海湾战争结束后曾企图暗杀其父亲布什。参见Saul Laudau，The Pre-emptive Empire：A Guide to Bush’s Kingdom，London：Pluto Press，2003，p．197．
③ Condoleezza Rice, "Campaign 2000—Promoting the National Interest," Foreign Affairs, January/February 2000.
④ Frum, The Right Man, p. 224.
⑤ "Remarks prior to discussions with Prime Minister Bulent Ecevit of Turkey and an exchange with reporters," Weekly Compilation of Presidential Documents, Jan 21, 2002.Vol.38, Iss. 3, p. 75.
⑥ Bob Woodward, Plan of Attack, New York: Simon & Schuster, 2004, p, 86.
⑦ Ibid., p. 87.
① George W Bush, "Address before a joint session of the Congress on the State of the Union," Weekly Compilation of Presidential Documents, Washington: Feb 4, 2002.Vol.38, Iss. 5, p. 133.
② Ibid.
③ Suzanne Daley, "Many in Europe Voice Worry U.S. Will Not Consult Them," New York Times, Jan 31, 2002.
④ James Brooke, "South Korea and Japan Begin to Sweat After Bush Turns Up the Heat on North Korea," New York Times, Jan 31, 2002.
⑤ John Ward Anderson, "Angry Denials From the 'Axis'; Iran, Iraq and N. Korea Slam Bush Charges on Arms,
① Suzanne Daley, "Many in Europe Voice Worry U. S. Will Not Consult Them," New York Times, Jan 31, 2002.
② James Brooke, "South Korea and Japan Begin to Sweat After Bush Turns Up the Heat on North Korea," New York Times, Jan 31, 2002.
③ John Ward Anderson, "Angry Denials From the 'Axis'; Iran, Iraq and N. Korea Slam Bush Charges on Arms, Terror Support," The Washington Post, Jan 31, 2002.
④ George W Bush, "Remarks on arrival in Daytona Beach, Florida," Weekly Compilation of Presidential Documents, Washington: Feb 4, 2002, Vol. 38, Iss. 5, p. 148.
⑤ George W Bush, "Remarks to the Armed forces at Eglin Air Force base in Fort Walton Beach, Florida," Weekly Compilation of Presidential Documents, Feb 11, 2002.Vol.38, Iss. 6, p. 176.
⑥ Serge Schmemann, "At Least 17 Are Killed in lsraeli Raid at Palestinian Camp in Gaza," New York Times, Mar 12, 2002.
⑦ George W Bush and Tony Blair, "Remarks on the situation in the Middle East and an exchange with reporters in Crawford, Texas," Weekly Compilation of Presidential Documents, Apt 8, 2002, Vol.38, Iss. 14, p. 541.
⑧ Lawrence F. Kaplan and William Kristol, The War over Iraq: Saddam's Tyranny and America's Mission, San Francisco: Encounter Books, 2003, p. 85.
① Kaplan and Kristol, The War over Iraq, p. 89.
② Quadrennial Defense Report, September 30, 2001.
③ Gerhard Schroeder and George W. Bush, "The President's news conference with Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder of Germany in Berlin," Weekly Compilation of Presidential Documents, May 27, 2002, Vol.38, lss. 21, p. 875
④ Woodward, Plan ofAttack, p. 132.
⑤ George W Bush, "Commencement address at the United States Military Academy in West Point, New York," Weekly Compilation of Presidential Documents, Jun 10, 2002, Vol.38, Iss. 23, p. 944.
① Annual Report to the President and Congress, 2002. http:www.defenselink.mil/execsec/adr2002.
② The National Security of the United States of America, September 20, 2002. http:www.whitehouse.gov/
③ Ibid.
④ Frank Hoffman, "The Transformation of Defense and Proliferation Policies after September 11," http: www.cid.org/files
⑤ Jimmy Carter, "There Is No Current Danger to the United States," The Washington Post, September 5, 2002.
⑥ Kaplan and Kristol, The War over Iraq, p. 89.
⑦ James Dao, "Experts Warn of High Risk for American Invasion of Iraq," New York Times, August 1, 2002.
① 这里的单边主义(Unilateralism)是指国家在采取行动时尽可能保持自主性，限制与他国的合作，减少对第三方的承诺。单边主义有两类：消极单边主义(Passive Unilateralism)和积极单边主义(Active Unilateralism)，前者主要是指孤立主义，后者是指大国采取行动时无视弱小成员的反应和利益，本文主要是指后者。参见Mantled Bertele and Holger H．Mey，“Unilateralism in Theory and Practice，”Comparative Strategy，Vol．17，No．2，1998，pp．198-199．
② Lawrence F. Kaplan and William Kristol, The War over Iraq, p. 92.
③ The National Security of the United States of America, September 20, 2002. http://www.whitehouse.gov/
① The National Security of the United States of America, September 20, 2002. http://www.whitehouse.gov/
② Woodward, Plan of Attack, p. 150.
③ Ibid., p. 183.
④ George W Bush and Tony Blair, "Remarks prior to discussions with Prime Minister Tony Blair of the United Kingdom and an exchange with reporters at Camp David, Maryland," Weekly Compilation of Presidential Documents, Sep 16, 2002, Vol.38, Iss. 37, p. 1518.
⑤ George W Bush, "Address to the United Nations General Assembly in New York City," Weekly Compilation of Presidential Documents, Sep 16, 2002, Vol.38, Iss. 37. p. 1529.
① Woodward, Plan of Attack, p. 222.
② 王律文著：《伊接克战争》，香港：鼎城出版有限公司，2003年版，第104页。1441号决议的全文可参见附录部分。
③ George W Bush, "Remarks on the passage of a United Nations Secunty Council resolution on Iraq," Weekly Compilation of Providential Documents, Nov 11, 2002, Vol.38, Iss. 45, p. 2009.
④ 参见袁鹏：《伊拉克战争与世界政治主要矛盾》，载《现代国际关系》，2003年第5期。
① Richard W. Stevenson and James Dao, "Bush Says lraqis Are Still Resisting Demand to Disarm," New York Times, Jan 22, 2003.
② Julia Preston, "France, Backed by Germany, Calls for Stronger Inspections, but the U.S. Is Unmoved," New York Times, Feb 6, 2003; Laurent, Cohen-Tanugi, Translated by George A. Holoch Jr., An Alliance At Risk: The United States and Europe since September 11, Baltimore arid London: The Johns Hopkins University Press, 2003, p. xi.
③ George W Bush and John Howard, "Remarks following discussions with Prime Minister John Howard of Australia and an exchange with reporters," Weekly Compilation of Presidential Documents, Feb 17, 2003, Vol.39, Iss. 7. p. 184.
④ 苏长和：《帝国、超国家与东亚的未来》，载《国际观察》，2003年第2期，第1-2页。
⑤ Dominique Moisi, "Europe Must Not Retreat from America's Army," Financial Times, August 26. 2002.
① Dexter Filkins, "Turkey Backs United States Plans for Iraq," New York Times, Feb 6, 2003. p. A. 17
② "The Willing and Not So-Willing in Europe," Perspectives on World History and Current Events, March 2003. http://www.geocities.com/pwhce/willing.html.
① George W Bush, "Remarks prior to discussions with President Aleksander Kwasniewski of Poland and exchange with reporters," Weekly Compilation of Presidential Documents, Jan 20, 2003, Vol.39, Iss. 3, p. 64
② Woodward, Plan of Attack, p. 285; p. 296.
③ "The Willing and Not So-Willing in Europe," Perspectives on World History and Current Events, March 2003.http://www.geocities.com/pwhce/willing.html/
① Woodward, Plan of Attack, p. 315.
② George W Bush, "The President's new conference," Weekly Compilation of Presidential Documents, Mar 10, 2003. Vol.39, Iss. 10, p. 295.
③ 展学习著：《伊拉克战争》，北京：人民出版社，2004年版，第37页。
④ Woodward, Plan of Attack, pp. 313-315.
⑤ Sarah Anderson, Phyllis Bennis, and John Cavanagh, Coalition of the Willing or the Coalition of the Coerced: How the Bush Administration Influences Allies in Its War on Iraq, Washington DC: Institute for Policy Studies, 2003, p. 3.
⑥ Ibid., p. 4.
⑦ Glenn Frankel, "Chirac Fortifies Antiwar Caucus," Washington Post, Feb. 22, 2003.
① Colum Lynch, "Costa Rica Reprimands UN Envoy over lraq," Washington Post, Feb. 21, 2003.
② Woodward, Plan of Attack, p. 339.
③ George W Bush, "Remarks at Naval Station Mayport in Jacksonville," Weekly Compilation of Presidential Documents, Feb 17, 2003, Vol.39, Iss. 7, p. 200.
④ 王赓武、宫少朋主编：《伊战启示录》，新加坡：八方文化企业公司，2003年版，第32页。
① Sarah Anderson, Phyllis Bennis, and John Cavanagh, Coalition of the Willing or the Coalition of the Coerced, p. 10.
② Laurie Mylroie, Bush vs. Beltway: How the CIA and the State Department Tried to Stop the War on Terror, New York: Regan Books, 2003, p. 211.
③ Paul Rutherford, Weapons of Mass Persuasion, Toronto: University of Toronto Press, 2004, p. 39.
④ Mattew Rhodes, "Central Europe and Iraq: Balance, Bandwagon, or Bridge?" Orbis, Vol. 48, No. 3, 2004, p.423.
① Woodward, Plan of Attack, p. 356.
② 王律文著：《伊拉克战争》，香港：鼎城出版有限公司，2003年版，第185页。
③ George W Bush, "Statement of the Atlantic Summit: A vision for lraq and the Iraqi people," Weekly Compilation of Presidential Documents, Mar 24, 2003, Vol.39, lss. 12, p. 336.
① George W. Bush, "The Iraq War Begins: The Tyrant Will Soon Be Gone," in Michael U Silty and Christopher Cerf, eels., Iraq War Reader: History, Documents, Opinions, pp. 503-504.
② George W. Bush, "Address to the nation on Iraq," Weekly Compilation of Presidential Documents, March 24, 2003, Vol.39, Iss. 12, p. 342.
③ Williamson Murray and Robert H. Scales, Jr., The Iraq War: A Military History, Cambridge: The Belknap Press, 2003, p. 487; "Coalition of the Willing," Perspectives on World History and Current Events.
① Williamson Murray and Robert H. Scales, Jr., The lraq War: A Military History, Cambridge: The Belknap Press, 2003, p. 487; "Coalition of the Willing," Perspectives on World History and Current Events.
② Kaplan and Kristol, The War Over Iraq, pp.3-14.
③ Senator John McCain, "Iraq's Disarmament Is Impossible Without Regime Change," in Michael L. Sifry and Christopher Cerf, eds., Iraq War Reader: History, Documents, Opinions, pp. 370-377.
① George W. Bush, Remarks at West Point: "New Threats Require New Thinking," in Michael L. Sift), and Christopher Cerf, eds., Iraq War Reader: History, Documents, Opinions, p. 269; George W Bush, "Commencement address at the United States Military Academy in West Point," Weekly Compilation of Presidential Documents, Jun 10, 2002, Vol.38, Iss. 23, p. 944.
② Rice, "Why We Know Iraq Is Lying," in Sifry and Cerf, eds., Iraq War Reader, p. 451.
③ George W. Bush, "Address to the nation on Iraq," Weekly Compilation of Presidential Documents, Mar ch 24, 2003, Vol.39, lss. 12, p. 338.
④ 王逸舟：《伊拉克危机启示录》，载王赓武、宫少朋主编：《伊战启示录》，第7页。
⑤ Dick Cheney, "The Risks of Inaction are Far Greater Than Risk of Action," in Silty and Cerf, eds., Iraq War Reader, pp. 298-300.
⑥ John McCain, "Iraq's Disarmament Is Impossible Without Regime Change," in Sifry and Ceff, eds., Iraq War Reader, p. 370.
① 王逸舟：《伊拉克危机启示录》，载王赓武、宫少朋主编：《伊战启示录》，第7页。
② Dick Cheney, "The Risks of Inaction are Far Greater Than Risk of Action," in Silty and Ceil, eds., Iraq War Reader, pp. 298-300.
③ John McCain, "Iraq's Disarmament Is Impossible Without Regime Change," in Silty and Cerf, eds., Iraq War Reader, p. 370.
④ George W Bush, "Statement on the terrorist attack in Indonesia," Weekly Compilation of Presidential Documents. Oct 21, 2002, Vol.38, Iss. 42, p. 1754.
⑤ Woodward, Plan of Attack, pp. 362-363.
① Woodward, Plan of Attack, pp. 263-266.
② N. Banerjee, "Energy Companies Weigh Their Possible Future in Iraq," New York Times, Oct. 26, 2002; Jon Kraus Kevin J. McMabon and David M. Rank'in, Transformed by Crisis: The Presidency of George W. Bush and American Politics, New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2004, p. 171.
③ David Harvey, The New Imperialism, Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2003, p. 16.
④ Sarah Anderson, Phyllis Bennis, and John Cavanagh, Coalition of the Willing or the Coalition of the Coerced, pp. 8-9.
① David Harvey, The New Imperialism, Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2003, p. 16.
② Sarah Anderson, Phyllis Bennis, and John Cavanagh, Coalition of the Willing or the Coalition of the Coerced, pp.8-9.
③ 当然，对于中东欧国家来说，获得军事和经济援助也是它们选择追随英国政策的重要动力。例如，2003年3月，波兰获得了美国提供的贷款，从而确保了从美国购买48架F—16喷气式飞机的资会。波兰总统克瓦希涅夫斯基还公开声明：支持美国就是希望在伊拉克重建中占有一定的份额。Rhodes，“Central Europe and Iraq：Balance，Bandwagon，or Bridge?”pp．431-432．
④ Anderson, Bennis, and Cavanagh, Coalition of the Willing or the Coalition of the Coerced, p.9.
⑤ Paul Gilfeather, "Coalition of the Bribed, Bullied & Blind," Common Dreams, March 22, 2003.
⑥ Anderson, Bennis, and Cavanagh, Coalition of the Willing or the Coalition of the Coerced, p.9.
⑦ William D. Hartung and Michelle Ciarrocca, "Buying A Coalition." The Nation, March 17, 2003.
① 关于“特殊关系”，有学者认为它应具有以下十个特征：一、透明性(Transparency)：二、随意性(Informality)：三、普遍性(Generality)；四、相互性(Riciprocity)：五、排他性(Exclusivity)：六、秘密性(Clandesfinity)：七、可靠性(Reliability)；八、长期性(Durability)：九、潜在性(Potentiality)：十、神秘性(Mythicality)。英美特殊关系无疑是其中的典型。参见Alex Danchev,“On Specialness，”International Affairs，Vol．72，No．4，1996，p．743．
② Woodward，Plan of Attack，p．337．
③ John Dumbrell，A Secial Relationship：Anglo-American Relations in the Cold War and After，New York：St．Martin's Press，2001，p．1．两国战后建立起来的情报关系成为维系特殊关系的重要纽带。参见Richard J．Aldrich，“British Intelligence and the Anglo-American‘Special Relationship’during the Cold War,”Review of International Studies，Vo．24，No．3，1998，pp．331-351．
④ [美]迈克尔．H．亨特著，褚律元译：《意识形态与美国外交政策》，北京：世界知识出版社，1999年版，第51页。
⑤ Barry Rubin and Thomas A. Keaney, eds., US Allies in A Changing World, London: FRANK CASS, 2001, p. 92.
⑥ Bulent Gokay and R. B. J. Walker, 11 September 2001: War, Terror and Judgment, London and Portland: FRANK CASS. 2003. p.111.
① [美]迈克尔·H·亨特著，褚律元译：《意识形态与美国外交政策》，北京：世界知识出版社，1999年版，第51页。
② Barry Rubin and Thomas A. Keaney, eds., US Allies in A Changing World, London: FRANK CASS, 2001, p. 92.
③ Bulent Gokay and R. B. J. Walker, 11 September 2001: War, Terror and Judgment, London and Portland: FRANK CASS, 2003, p.111.
④ Peter L. Bergen, Holy War, Inc.: Inside the Secret World of Osama bin Laden, London: Weidenfeld and Nicolson, 2001, pp. 19-24.
⑤ Gokay and Walker, 11 September 2001, pp. 110-1.11.
⑥ Speech by British Prime Minister Tony Blair at the Lord Mayor's Banquet, Nov. 12, 2001. http://www.number 10.gov.uk/news.asp?newsld=2996.
① Liska, Nations in Alliance, p. 77.
② The White House, Operation Iraqi Freedom, March 21, 2003. http://www.whitehouse/gov/nes/releases/2003/03/20030321-4html
③ George W Bush, "Remarks at MacDill Air Force Base in Tampa, Florida," Weekly Compilation of Presidential Documents, Mar 31, 2003, Vol.39, Iss. 13, p. 379.
④ Dan Balz and Mike Allen, "U. S. Names 30 Countries Supporting War Effort," Washington Post, March 19, 2003.
① Dan Balz and Mike Allen, "U. S. Names 30 Countries Supporting War Effort," Washington Post, March 19, 2003.
② Sarah Anderson, Phyllis Bennis and John Cavanagh, Coalition of the Willing or the Coalition of the Coerced, p. 1.
③ Ibid., p. 2.
④ Erik Leaver and Sara Johnson, "Human Rights Records of Coalition Countries," Institute for Policy Studies, Foreign Policy in Focus Project, March 24, 2003. http://www.ips-dc.org.html
① "A Coalition of Willing?" Misnomer, February 11, 2003.http://www.nusbiner.dru.ca/2OO3/02/11/a_coalition of the willing.html/
② Woodward, Plan of Attack. p. 366.
③ “影子准盟友”的成员情况目前主要依据西方材料，具体情况还有待相关一手资料的解密。Murray and Scales，The Iraq War，p．487．
① Paolo Pasicolan and Carrie Satterlee, "Coalition of the Willing Already Larger Than 1991 Gulf War Coalition," The Heritage Foundation, March 19, 2003.
② Ibid.
③ Michael Dobbs, "U. S. -Saudi Alliance Appears Strong," Washington Post, Apr 27, 2003.
④ "Arab States Line Up behind Iraq," BBC News (World Edition), March 25, 2003. http://www.news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middleeast/2882851.stm.
⑤ George W. Bush, "The President's radio address," Weekly Compilation of Presidential Documents, February 17, 2003, Vol.39, Iss. 7, p. 175.
⑥ ibid., March 10, 2003, Vol.39, Iss. 10, p. 295.
① George W. Bush, "The President's radio address," Weekly Compilation of Presidential Documents, February 17, 2003, Vol.39, Iss. 7, p. 175.
② Ibid., March 10, 2003, Vol.39, Iss. 10, p. 295.
③ Kirsten Aiken, "Spain Withdraws Iraq War Support Following Madrid Bombings," The World Today, March 16,2004.
④ Liska, Nations in Alliance, p. 103.
⑤ David E. Sanger, "Blow to Bush: Ally Rejected," New York Times, March 15, 2004.
⑥ Gustavo Palencia, "Spain, Honduras to Pull out Troops. and Thais Look Shaky," Common Dreams, December 9, 2004.
① "Countries Supporting Ops in Iraq," Global Security, March 21, 2005.http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/ops/iraq_coaliton.htm
① Ole R. Holsti, Unity and Disintegration in International Alliances: Comparative Studies, New York: John Wiley & Sons, 1973, pp. 52-53.
② 从此图可看出，影响国家目标选择的有多元因素，安全威胁和发展利益是主要影响因素，意识形态与文化认同是次要影响因素。地缘政治和权力变化因素常常成为安全威胁与发展利益判断的一部分，它们使决策者在下列四个选项中进行权衡：一、消极中立，即被动地采取中立政策，并有条约作保证，如近代以来的瑞士和奥地利(上述困素影响力比较有限)；二、积极中立，即国家主动地采取中立政策，如决策者声明采取中立政策，但没有条约作保证；三、结盟，即国家与他国建立密切的安全合作关系，并有盟约作保证，如美日关系；四、准结盟，即国家在一定限度内同他国建立安全合作关系，同时没有盟约作保证，如美国和以色列。这里“积极中立”的概念可能首先由利斯卡提出，参见George F．Liska，Nations in Alliance：The
① 从此图可看出，影响国家目标选择的有多元因素，安全威胁和发展利益是主要影响因素，意识形态文化认同是次要影响因素。地缘政治和权力变化因素常常成为安全威胁与发展利益判断的一部分，它们使决策者在下列四个选项中进行权衡：一、消极中立，即被动地采取中立政策，并有条约作保证，如近代以来的瑞士和奥地利(上述因素影响力比较有限)：二、积极中立，即国家主动地采取中立政策，如决策者声明采取中立政策，但没有条约作保证；三、结盟，即国家与他国建立密切的安全合作关系，并有盟约作保证，如美日关系；四、准结盟，即国家在一定限度内同他国建立安全合作关系，同时没有盟约作保证，如美国和以色列。这里“积极中立”的概念可能首先由利斯卡提出，参见George F．Liska，Nations in Alliance：The Limits of Interdependence，Baltimore：Johns Hopkins Press，1968，pp．203—204．“消极中立”是本人在“积极中立”概念基础上归纳提出的。本文其他处挺到的中立一律特指“积极中立”。
① [德]马克斯·韦伯著．胡景北译：《社会学的基本概念》，上海：上海人民出版社，2000年版，第1页。
① [德]马克斯·书伯著，胡景北译：《社会学的基本概念》，上海：上海人民出版社，2000年版，第1页。
① The National Security of the United States of America, September20, 2002. http://www.whitehouse.gov/
② 理查德·N．哈斯著，陈谣遥、荣凌译：《规制主义——冷战后的美国全球战略》，北京：新华出版社 1999年版，第100页。 年版，第100页。
① 张文木：《大国崛起的历史经验与中国的选择》，载《战略与管理》，2004年第2期，第70页。
① 洪明：《重振河山待后生——中日关系的过去、现在和将来》，载《战略与管理》，2004年第1期，第57
② 时殷弘认为，未来中国可供选择的三大战略是自助、不出头和搭车。自助主要是指“独立自主”，不出头主要是指“韬光养晦”，搭车主要是指“与大国及国际机制合作”。参见时殷弘：《国际政治的世纪性规律及其对中国的启示》，载《战略与管理》，1995年第5期，第2页。
① 较为系统阐述中立概念及中立政策的文章有：Francis Low-Beer，“The Concept of Neutralism，”The American Political Science Review，Vol．58，No．2，1964，pp 383-391；Michael Breche “Neulralism：An Analysis，” Iternational Journal，Vol．42，No．1，1963，pp．224-236．
② Raymond则认为，中立就是一国不卷入其他国家之间冲突的一种法律姿态(Legal status)。参见Gregory A．Raymond，“Neutrality Norms and lhe Balance of Power，”Cooperation and Conflict Vol．32．No．2，1997，p．125．
① Ernest Lefever, "Nehru, Nasser, and Nkrumah on Neutralism," in Laurence Martin ed., Neutralism and Nonalignment. New York: Frederick A. Praeger, 1962, p. 95.
② 当然，辛格认为，“中立协定”也是联盟关系建立的标志，如《苏德互不侵犯条约》的签订标志着斯大林与希特勒建立了联盟关系，这种观点值得商榷，因为“中立协定”与“北同防御条约”存在本质上的区别。
③ Michael Donelan, Elements of International Political Theory, Oxford: Clarendon Press, 1992, p. 123.
④ Samir N. Anabtawi, "Neutralists and Neutralism," The Journal of Politics, Vol. 27, No. 2, 1965, p. 354.
① Samir N. Anabtawi, "Neutralists and Neutralism," The Journal of Politics, Vol. 27, No. 2, 1965, p. 354.
② 《邓小平文选》(第三卷)，北京：人民出版社，1999年版，第57页。
③ Ole R. Holsti, Unity and Disintegration in International Alliances, p. 2.
④ Barry Rubin and Thomas A. Keaney, eds., US Allies inA Changing World, London: FRANK CASS, 2001, p. 4.
⑤ Hans J. Morgenthau and Kenneth W. Thompson, Politics Among Nations: The Struggle for Power and Peace, New Delhi: Kalyani Publishers, 1985, p. 22.
① 关于中国与国际机制的关系问题可参见刘杰著：《机制化生存：中国和平崛起的战略选择》，北京：新华出版社，2004年版。
Foreign Relations of the United States (FRUS) 1964～1968, Vol. ⅩⅧ, Arab-Israeli Dispute 1964-67, No. 1～No. 418.
Nixon Presidential Material Project (NPMP), National Archives Ⅱ, College Park, MD, USA, 1969-1973.
① Jervis Robert, The Logic of Images in, International Relations. Oxford and New York: Columbia University Press. 1989, p. 111.
Foreign Relations of the United States (FRUS) 1964-196& Vol.ⅩⅧ, Arab-Israeli Dispute 1964～67, No.1～No. 418.
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季鸿生著：《中美关系五十年》，上海：百家出版社，1993年版。
贾庆国编著：《未实现的和解：中美关系的隔阂与危机》，北京：文化艺术出版社，1998年版。
姜长斌、罗伯特·罗斯主编：《从对峙走向缓和——冷战时期中美关系再探讨))，北京：世界知识出版社，2000年版。
金秀明，胡祖庆编译：《台湾关系法：过去与未来五十年》，台北：五南图书出版公司，1991年版。
军事科学院军事历史研究部：《海湾战争全史》，北京：解放军出版社，2000年版。
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[美]坎农著，潘世强译：《从演员到总统罗纳德·里根》，北京：中国社会科学出版社，1986年版。
[美]肯尼斯·华尔兹著，胡绍华、王红缨等译：《国际政治理论》，北京：中国人民公安大学出版社，1992年版。
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[美]劳伦斯·迈耶著，钱及复等译：《今日以色列》，北京：新华出版社，1987年版。
李本京著：《七十年中美关系评估：1913～1984》，台北：黎明文化事业公司，1985年版。
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李达著：《美台关系与中国统一》，香港：广角镜出版社，1987年版。
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李捷著：《毛泽东与新中国的内政外交》．北京：中国青年出版社，2003年版。
李仁质编：《台湾问题一百问》，北京：台海出版社，2001年版。
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李达著：《美台关系与中国统一》．香港：广角镜出版社，1987年版。
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李捷著：《毛泽东与新中国的内政外交》，北京：中国青年出版社，2003年版。
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倪世雄等著：《当代西方国际关系理论》，上海：复旦大学出版社，2001年版。
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王晓德著：《美国文化与外交》，北京：世界知识出版社，2000年版。
卫林主编：《第二次世界大战后国际关系大事记》，北京：中国社会科学出版社，1983年版。
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项立领主编：《中美关系史全编》，上海：华东师范大学出版社，2002年版。
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肖元恺著：《百年之结——美国与中国台湾地区关系的历史透视》，北京：人民出版社，2001年版。
谢力夫著：《中东战争》，北京：世界知识出版社，1994年版。
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王永钦主编：《太平洋上空的彩虹》，北京：中央文献出版社，1998年版。
王晓德著：《美国文化与外交》，北京：世界知识出版社，2000年版。
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项立领主编：《中美关系史全编》，上海：华东师范大学出版社，2002年版。
萧冬连著：《五十年国事纪要》(外交卷)，长沙：湖南人民出版社，1999年版。
萧新煌著：《台湾问题》，台北：二理出版社，1987年版。
肖元恺著：《百年之结——美国与中国台湾地区关系的历史透视》，北京：人民出版社，2001年版。
谢力夫著：《中东战争》，北京：世界知识出版社，1994年版。
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徐向群、余崇健著：《第三圣殿——以色列的崛起》，上海：上海远东出版社，1994年版。
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[美]亚历山大·温特著，秦亚青译：《国际政治的社会理论》，上海：上海人民出版社，2000年版。
阎瑞松著：《以色列政治》，西安：西北大学出版社，1995年版。
杨灏城、江淳著：《纳赛尔和萨达特时代的埃及》，北京：商务印书馆，1997年版。
杨基铨主编：《台湾关系法二十年》，台北：前卫出版社，1999年版。
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殷罡、秦海波主编：《萨达姆，注定要震惊世界的人》，北京：警官教育出版社，1990年版。
袁文靖主编：《里根政府对华政策》，台北：国际形势周刊社，1984年版。
[美]约翰·米尔斯海默著，王义桅、唐小松译：《人国政治的悲剧》，上海：上海人民出版社，2003年版。
夏保成著：《国家安全论》，长春：长春出版社，1999年版。
翟晓敏著：《冷战后的美国军事战略》，北京：国防大学出版社，1999年版。
[美]詹姆斯·多尔蒂，小罗伯特·普法尔茨格拉夫著，阎学通、陈寒溪等译：《争论中的国际关系理论》，北京：世界知识出版社，2003年版。
展学习著：《伊拉克战争》，北京：人民出版社，2004年版。
张春华等著：《一路坎坷的犹太人》，北京：时事出版社，1997年版。
张富美主编：《台湾问题讨论集》，台北：前卫出版社，1989年版。
张贺福、孔圣根著：《犹太民族不灭之谜》，北京：解放军文艺出版社，1994年版。
张景旭著：《台湾问题：中美关系的焦点》，福州：福建人民出版社，1999年版。
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赵国忠主编：《海湾战争后的中东格局》，北京：中国社会科学出版社，1995年版。
——《冷眼向洋——百年风云启示录》，上海：三联书店，1994年版。
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Kissinger, Henry A., "Role Reversal and Alliance Realities," Washington Post, February 10, 2003.
Loeb, Vernon, "US Military Will Leave Saudi Arabia This Year," Washington Post, April 30, 2003.
Mann, Jim. "U. S. Has Secretly Expanded Military Ties with Taiwan, "Los Angles Times, July 24,
Daalder, Ivo H., and Robert Kagan, "The 'Allies' Must Step Up," Washington Post, June 20, 2004.
Dobbs, Michael, "US-Saudi Alliance Appears Strong," Washington Post, April 27, 2003.
Fuerth, Leon, "Alliances for the Next Generation", Washington Post, August 23, 2002.
Kissinger, Henry A., "Role Reversal and Alliance Realities," Washington Post, February 10, 2003.
Loeb, Vernon, "US Military Will Leave Saudi Arabia This Year," Washington Post, April 30, 2003.
Mann, Jim, "U. S. Has Secretly Expanded Military Ties with Taiwan, "Los Angles Times, July 24, 1999.
Marquis, Christopher, "For Allies, 'I Do' Becomes 'Hey, Want to Dance?'" New York Times, April 14, 2002.
http://www.israel.org//jsource//US-Israel//polls.html(美以关系)
http://www.us-israel.org//jsource//US-lsrael/presquole.himl(美以关系)
http://www.fas.org//asmp.html(美国对以军售情况)
http://www.cdi.org//sc//javaclock.html(世界各国国防与开支情况)
http://www.state.gov//aboutstatedepartment/history//frusonline.html(美国外交档案)