渤海湾富营养化模糊评价与预测研究
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摘要
由于人口的快速增长,经济的快速发展和海岸高度开发,使入海营养盐负荷不断增加,从而导致近岸海域富营养化问题不断加剧,已严重制约了滨海地区经济的可持续发展。富营养化的预测与评价模型的建立,对于近岸海域富营养化的防治、修复和管理具有重要的意义。
本文以渤海湾为研究背景,通过分析渤海湾中与富营养化有关的主要因素,综合了化学指标、浮游植物指标并考虑到细菌指标,提出了渤海湾海水富营养化的二级模糊综合评价方法,对渤海湾富营养化状态进行了评价,并用加权平均原则对结果进行了处理。对评价结果进行排序,发现渤海湾北部近岸海域和南部的养殖区富营养化程度严重,且夏季最高,秋季最低。
运用生态排序方法对2004年和2005年渤海湾浮游植物分异进行了研究,并运用局部CCA排序方法分析了空间格局和环境因子对浮游植物分异影响的大小。除十月份外,空间格局对浮游植物分异的影响都超过了环境因子对浮游植物分异的影响。在各环境因子中,磷酸盐对浮游植物分异的影响最大,其次为硅酸盐、盐度。根据排序结果对渤海湾的生态区域进行了划分。
根据生态排序划分的区域,选择赤潮监控区建立模糊逻辑富营养化模型。选择了TN和TP作为模型的输入,并考虑了温度和当前叶绿素值的影响。以赤潮监控区三个站位的实测数据建立了模型的模糊规则库,并用这三个站位的叶绿素值对模型的输出进行了拟合,表明规则库满足了基本要求。对赤潮监控区的一个站位进行了模拟研究,运行结果大部分与实测值接近。
Nutrient salt load into sea increased owing to fast rise of population, rapid development of economic and high exploitation of coast. It aggravated eutrophication of coastal water which has heavily restricted sustainable development of coastal economic. Establishing of assessment model and prediction model for eutrophication will do important signification to repair, management, prevention and cure of coastal water eutrophication.
The study in this paper is based on Bohai Bay. Through analyzing main factors related to eutrophication in Bohai Bay and synthesizing chemistry index and phytoplankton index and bacteria index also considered, the method of two-grade fuzzy synthesis assessment for seawater eutrophication is put forward. The method is applied to assess the eutrophication level in Bohai Bay and the result is transformed by weighted-average principle. Through arranging final assessment result,it can be found eutrophication is serious in north costal water and south fishery of Bohai Bay. The level of eutrophication is the highest in summer and lowest in autumn.
Phytoplankton distribution differentiation of Bohai Bay in 2004 and 2005 was studied by ecological ordination method, and influence on phytoplankton distribution differentiation by spatial distribution pattern and environment factors was analysed by local CCA ordination method.The influence on phytoplankton distribution differentiation by spatial distribution pattern is lager than by environment factors except in October.In the environment factors, P influenced phytoplankton distribution differentiation most following silicate and salinity. Ecological area in Bohai Bay was partitioned according to the result of ordination.
According to areas partitioned by ecological ordination method, red-tide survey and control area was selected to establish fuzzy logic eutrophication model. TN and TP were selected as input of model and the influence of temperature and current chlorophyll was also considered.Fuzzy inference rules were established based on survey data of three stations in red-tide control area. Output of model was fitted by chlorophyll value of these stations which indicated rules are basically satisfied. The other station was simulated and most of the results were close to fact value.
本文以渤海湾为研究背景,通过分析渤海湾中与富营养化有关的主要因素,综合了化学指标、浮游植物指标并考虑到细菌指标,提出了渤海湾海水富营养化的二级模糊综合评价方法,对渤海湾富营养化状态进行了评价,并用加权平均原则对结果进行了处理。对评价结果进行排序,发现渤海湾北部近岸海域和南部的养殖区富营养化程度严重,且夏季最高,秋季最低。
运用生态排序方法对2004年和2005年渤海湾浮游植物分异进行了研究,并运用局部CCA排序方法分析了空间格局和环境因子对浮游植物分异影响的大小。除十月份外,空间格局对浮游植物分异的影响都超过了环境因子对浮游植物分异的影响。在各环境因子中,磷酸盐对浮游植物分异的影响最大,其次为硅酸盐、盐度。根据排序结果对渤海湾的生态区域进行了划分。
根据生态排序划分的区域,选择赤潮监控区建立模糊逻辑富营养化模型。选择了TN和TP作为模型的输入,并考虑了温度和当前叶绿素值的影响。以赤潮监控区三个站位的实测数据建立了模型的模糊规则库,并用这三个站位的叶绿素值对模型的输出进行了拟合,表明规则库满足了基本要求。对赤潮监控区的一个站位进行了模拟研究,运行结果大部分与实测值接近。
Nutrient salt load into sea increased owing to fast rise of population, rapid development of economic and high exploitation of coast. It aggravated eutrophication of coastal water which has heavily restricted sustainable development of coastal economic. Establishing of assessment model and prediction model for eutrophication will do important signification to repair, management, prevention and cure of coastal water eutrophication.
The study in this paper is based on Bohai Bay. Through analyzing main factors related to eutrophication in Bohai Bay and synthesizing chemistry index and phytoplankton index and bacteria index also considered, the method of two-grade fuzzy synthesis assessment for seawater eutrophication is put forward. The method is applied to assess the eutrophication level in Bohai Bay and the result is transformed by weighted-average principle. Through arranging final assessment result,it can be found eutrophication is serious in north costal water and south fishery of Bohai Bay. The level of eutrophication is the highest in summer and lowest in autumn.
Phytoplankton distribution differentiation of Bohai Bay in 2004 and 2005 was studied by ecological ordination method, and influence on phytoplankton distribution differentiation by spatial distribution pattern and environment factors was analysed by local CCA ordination method.The influence on phytoplankton distribution differentiation by spatial distribution pattern is lager than by environment factors except in October.In the environment factors, P influenced phytoplankton distribution differentiation most following silicate and salinity. Ecological area in Bohai Bay was partitioned according to the result of ordination.
According to areas partitioned by ecological ordination method, red-tide survey and control area was selected to establish fuzzy logic eutrophication model. TN and TP were selected as input of model and the influence of temperature and current chlorophyll was also considered.Fuzzy inference rules were established based on survey data of three stations in red-tide control area. Output of model was fitted by chlorophyll value of these stations which indicated rules are basically satisfied. The other station was simulated and most of the results were close to fact value.
引文
[1] 国家环境保护局,渤海黄海海域污染防治科研协作组,渤海黄海海域污染防治研究[M],北京:科学出版社,1990
[2] Karydis M., Tsirtsis G., Ecological indices: a biometric approach for assessing eutrophication levels in the marine environment[J],The Science of the Total Environment,1996,186:209-219
[3] 邹景忠,董丽萍,秦保平,渤海湾富营养化和赤潮问题的初步探讨[J],海洋环境科学,1983,2(2):41-53
[4] 李清雪,陶建华,应用浮游植物群落结构指数评价海洋的富营养化[J],中国给水排水,1998,14(4):22-24
[5] 日本机械工业联合会等,杨祯奎等译,水域的富营养化及其防治对策[M],中国环境科学出版杜,1987,371
[6] Lgnatindes L, M Karydis and P Vounatsou, A Possible method for evaluating oligotrophy and eutrophication based on nutrient concentration scales[J], Mar Pollut Bull,1992,24(5):238-243
[7] Bricker S B,Clement C G,Pirhalla D E,et a1, National Estuarine Eutrophication Assessment, Effect of Nutrient Enrichment in the Nation's Estuaries[R], NOAA-NOS Special Projects Office, 1999
[8] 容跃,金键,用模糊集理论计算水环境综合评价指数[J],环境科学,1982,3(2):69-72
[9] 曹斌,宋建社,湖泊水质富营养化评价的模糊决策方法[J],环境科学,1991,12(5):88-91
[10] 彭云辉,王肇鼎,珠江河口富营养化水平评价[J],海洋环境科学,1991,10(3):7-l2
[11] Dillon P. J, Rigler F. H., The phosphorus-chlorophyll relationship in lakes [J],Limnol Oceanogr , 1974, 19(5) : 767-773
[12] Wang, Z., Two methods of predicting red tides, In: Smayada, T.J., Shimizu, Y.(Eds.),Toxic phytoplankton blooms in the sea. Elsevier Science Publisher, 1993, 843-847
[13] Peperzak, L., The wax and Wane of Phaeocystis globosa Blooms, PhD dissertation, University of Groningen, 2002
[14] Vollenweider R. A., Advances in defining critical loading levels for phosphorus in lake eutrophication[J], Men Ist Ital Idrobiol,1976 ,33(2): 53-83
[15] Tao J.H., Wang Z.L., Refined water quality modeling of Bohai Bay, ASCE, Environmental and coastal Hydraulics Protecting, the aquatic Habitat, Vol.2, New York, 1997
[16] 张淑珍,渤海环境数值模拟[J],山东海洋学院学报,1980,14(2)
[17] 王化桐,胶州湾环流和污染扩散的数值模拟[J],山东海洋学院学报,1980,10(1)
[18] M.L. Spaulding et al. Esturine and Coastal Modellin, Proc.2nd. Int. Conf., Tampa , FL,13-15,Nov.1991
[19] 沈永明,郑永红,吴修广,近岸海域污染物迁移转化的二维水质动力学模型[J],自然科学进展,2004,14(6):694-670
[20] Maceina M. J, Soballe D.M., Wind-related limnological variation in Lake Okeechobee, Florida Lake Research Management, 1990 6(1): 93-100
[21] Shanahan P., Luettich Jr R. A., Harleman D. R. F., Water quality modeling Application to lakes and reservoirs Case study of Lake Balaton[J], Hungary. Water Quality Modeling, 1991, 5(1): 69-114
[22] Hellstron T., The effect of resuspension on algal production in a shallow lake[J], Hydrobiologia, 1991, 213(3): 183-190
[23] Rossi G.., Premazzi G. Delay in lake recovery caused by intemal loading[J], Wat Res,1991, 25(3): 567-575
[24] 张锡辉,水环境修复工程学原理与应用[M],北京:化学工业出版社,2002,22- 26
[25] G. A. Riley et al, Quantitative ecology of the plankton of the western North Atlantic, Bull Bingham Oceanogr. Coll., 1949, 12:1-169
[26] Franks P J S, Chen C. Plankton production in tidal fronts: A model of Georges bank in summer[J]. Journal of Marine Research, 1996 ,54 :631-651
[27] Baretta J W, The European regional seas ecosystem model, a complex marine ecosystem model [J], Netherlands Journal of Sea Research, 1995, 33 (3/4): 233-246
[28] Chen Q., Mynett A.E., 2004c. Modelling algal bloom in the Dutch coast by integrated numerical and fuzzy cellular automata approaches. In: Liong P., BabovicV.(Eds.),Proceedings of the 6th Hydroinformatics Conference , Singapore
[29] M.D. Skogen, et al, Modelling the primary production in the North Sea using a coupled 3 Dimensional physical chemical biological model[J], Est. Coast Shelf Sci,1994
[30] P.G. Shuert, J.J. Walsh, A coupled physical-biological model of the BeringChukchi seas[J], Continental Shelf Research,1993,13(5/6):543-573
[31] Posetchine V., Huttula T., Savijarvi H., A three dimensional-circulation model of Lake Tanganyika[J], Hydrobiologia ,1999, 407(1): 5-35
[32] Annan J. D., Modeling under uncertainty, Monte Carlo methods for temporally varying parameters[J], Ecological Modeling ,2001, 136(3): 297-302
[33] [美]Edward A Laws,等著,余刚,张祖麟,等译,水污染导论[M],北京:科学出版社,2003 ,57- 65
[34] Bruno Tassin, Brigitte Vincon Leite, Forecasting of water quality in lakes A predictive use of a one dimensional mode1 Application to Lake Bourget (Savoie, France),Hydrobiologia, 1998, 373 /374 , 47-60
[35] 胡永宏,贺思辉,综合评价方法[M],北京:科学出版社,2000,167-188
[36] 李冠国,范振刚,海洋生态学[M],高等教育出版社,2004
[37] Danilov R, Ekelund N G A, The efficiency of seven diversity and one similarity indices based on phytoplankton data for assessing the level of eutrophication in lakes in central Sweden[J], The Science of the Total Environment,1999, 234:15-23
[38] Tsirtsis G, Karydis M., Evaluation of phytoplankton community indices for detecting eutrophic trends in the marine environment[J], Environmental Monitoring and Assessment,1998, 50(3):255-269
[39] 山田真知子,等,植物プウンクトンを用いた海域の富营养度判定,I 植物プウンクトンの富营养阶级表[Z],日水志,1980,(46):1345-1348
[40] Bricker S B, Ferreira J G., Simas T., An integrated methodology for assessment of estuarine trophic status[J],Ecological Modeling,2003,169:39-60
[41] 姚云,沈志良,胶州湾海水富营养化水平评价[J],海洋科学,2004,28(6):14-17
[42] 章守宇,杨红,焦俊鹏,等,浙江北部沿海富营养化的评价与分析[J],水产学报,2001,25(1):74-78
[43] 高玉荣,北京四海浮游藻类叶绿素含量与水体富营养水平的研究[J],水生生物学报,1992,16(3):237-244
[44] 沈艳玲,张洪,马兴,等,渤海湾无机氮、活性磷酸盐的变化对海洋初级生产力(叶绿素)的影响[J],中国环境监测,2004,20(1):52-54
[45] 徐恒振,海水水质级别的模糊综合评价法[J],海洋环境科学,1992,11(2):41-48
[46] 国家海洋局,海洋生态环境监测技术规程[Z],国家海洋局,2002
[2] Karydis M., Tsirtsis G., Ecological indices: a biometric approach for assessing eutrophication levels in the marine environment[J],The Science of the Total Environment,1996,186:209-219
[3] 邹景忠,董丽萍,秦保平,渤海湾富营养化和赤潮问题的初步探讨[J],海洋环境科学,1983,2(2):41-53
[4] 李清雪,陶建华,应用浮游植物群落结构指数评价海洋的富营养化[J],中国给水排水,1998,14(4):22-24
[5] 日本机械工业联合会等,杨祯奎等译,水域的富营养化及其防治对策[M],中国环境科学出版杜,1987,371
[6] Lgnatindes L, M Karydis and P Vounatsou, A Possible method for evaluating oligotrophy and eutrophication based on nutrient concentration scales[J], Mar Pollut Bull,1992,24(5):238-243
[7] Bricker S B,Clement C G,Pirhalla D E,et a1, National Estuarine Eutrophication Assessment, Effect of Nutrient Enrichment in the Nation's Estuaries[R], NOAA-NOS Special Projects Office, 1999
[8] 容跃,金键,用模糊集理论计算水环境综合评价指数[J],环境科学,1982,3(2):69-72
[9] 曹斌,宋建社,湖泊水质富营养化评价的模糊决策方法[J],环境科学,1991,12(5):88-91
[10] 彭云辉,王肇鼎,珠江河口富营养化水平评价[J],海洋环境科学,1991,10(3):7-l2
[11] Dillon P. J, Rigler F. H., The phosphorus-chlorophyll relationship in lakes [J],Limnol Oceanogr , 1974, 19(5) : 767-773
[12] Wang, Z., Two methods of predicting red tides, In: Smayada, T.J., Shimizu, Y.(Eds.),Toxic phytoplankton blooms in the sea. Elsevier Science Publisher, 1993, 843-847
[13] Peperzak, L., The wax and Wane of Phaeocystis globosa Blooms, PhD dissertation, University of Groningen, 2002
[14] Vollenweider R. A., Advances in defining critical loading levels for phosphorus in lake eutrophication[J], Men Ist Ital Idrobiol,1976 ,33(2): 53-83
[15] Tao J.H., Wang Z.L., Refined water quality modeling of Bohai Bay, ASCE, Environmental and coastal Hydraulics Protecting, the aquatic Habitat, Vol.2, New York, 1997
[16] 张淑珍,渤海环境数值模拟[J],山东海洋学院学报,1980,14(2)
[17] 王化桐,胶州湾环流和污染扩散的数值模拟[J],山东海洋学院学报,1980,10(1)
[18] M.L. Spaulding et al. Esturine and Coastal Modellin, Proc.2nd. Int. Conf., Tampa , FL,13-15,Nov.1991
[19] 沈永明,郑永红,吴修广,近岸海域污染物迁移转化的二维水质动力学模型[J],自然科学进展,2004,14(6):694-670
[20] Maceina M. J, Soballe D.M., Wind-related limnological variation in Lake Okeechobee, Florida Lake Research Management, 1990 6(1): 93-100
[21] Shanahan P., Luettich Jr R. A., Harleman D. R. F., Water quality modeling Application to lakes and reservoirs Case study of Lake Balaton[J], Hungary. Water Quality Modeling, 1991, 5(1): 69-114
[22] Hellstron T., The effect of resuspension on algal production in a shallow lake[J], Hydrobiologia, 1991, 213(3): 183-190
[23] Rossi G.., Premazzi G. Delay in lake recovery caused by intemal loading[J], Wat Res,1991, 25(3): 567-575
[24] 张锡辉,水环境修复工程学原理与应用[M],北京:化学工业出版社,2002,22- 26
[25] G. A. Riley et al, Quantitative ecology of the plankton of the western North Atlantic, Bull Bingham Oceanogr. Coll., 1949, 12:1-169
[26] Franks P J S, Chen C. Plankton production in tidal fronts: A model of Georges bank in summer[J]. Journal of Marine Research, 1996 ,54 :631-651
[27] Baretta J W, The European regional seas ecosystem model, a complex marine ecosystem model [J], Netherlands Journal of Sea Research, 1995, 33 (3/4): 233-246
[28] Chen Q., Mynett A.E., 2004c. Modelling algal bloom in the Dutch coast by integrated numerical and fuzzy cellular automata approaches. In: Liong P., BabovicV.(Eds.),Proceedings of the 6th Hydroinformatics Conference , Singapore
[29] M.D. Skogen, et al, Modelling the primary production in the North Sea using a coupled 3 Dimensional physical chemical biological model[J], Est. Coast Shelf Sci,1994
[30] P.G. Shuert, J.J. Walsh, A coupled physical-biological model of the BeringChukchi seas[J], Continental Shelf Research,1993,13(5/6):543-573
[31] Posetchine V., Huttula T., Savijarvi H., A three dimensional-circulation model of Lake Tanganyika[J], Hydrobiologia ,1999, 407(1): 5-35
[32] Annan J. D., Modeling under uncertainty, Monte Carlo methods for temporally varying parameters[J], Ecological Modeling ,2001, 136(3): 297-302
[33] [美]Edward A Laws,等著,余刚,张祖麟,等译,水污染导论[M],北京:科学出版社,2003 ,57- 65
[34] Bruno Tassin, Brigitte Vincon Leite, Forecasting of water quality in lakes A predictive use of a one dimensional mode1 Application to Lake Bourget (Savoie, France),Hydrobiologia, 1998, 373 /374 , 47-60
[35] 胡永宏,贺思辉,综合评价方法[M],北京:科学出版社,2000,167-188
[36] 李冠国,范振刚,海洋生态学[M],高等教育出版社,2004
[37] Danilov R, Ekelund N G A, The efficiency of seven diversity and one similarity indices based on phytoplankton data for assessing the level of eutrophication in lakes in central Sweden[J], The Science of the Total Environment,1999, 234:15-23
[38] Tsirtsis G, Karydis M., Evaluation of phytoplankton community indices for detecting eutrophic trends in the marine environment[J], Environmental Monitoring and Assessment,1998, 50(3):255-269
[39] 山田真知子,等,植物プウンクトンを用いた海域の富营养度判定,I 植物プウンクトンの富营养阶级表[Z],日水志,1980,(46):1345-1348
[40] Bricker S B, Ferreira J G., Simas T., An integrated methodology for assessment of estuarine trophic status[J],Ecological Modeling,2003,169:39-60
[41] 姚云,沈志良,胶州湾海水富营养化水平评价[J],海洋科学,2004,28(6):14-17
[42] 章守宇,杨红,焦俊鹏,等,浙江北部沿海富营养化的评价与分析[J],水产学报,2001,25(1):74-78
[43] 高玉荣,北京四海浮游藻类叶绿素含量与水体富营养水平的研究[J],水生生物学报,1992,16(3):237-244
[44] 沈艳玲,张洪,马兴,等,渤海湾无机氮、活性磷酸盐的变化对海洋初级生产力(叶绿素)的影响[J],中国环境监测,2004,20(1):52-54
[45] 徐恒振,海水水质级别的模糊综合评价法[J],海洋环境科学,1992,11(2):41-48
[46] 国家海洋局,海洋生态环境监测技术规程[Z],国家海洋局,2002