基于复杂性理论的质量系统分析
摘要
科技进步的推动和市场需求的拉动使质量系统日益巨型化和复杂化，已演变为一个典型的复杂系统，出现了一些以往的理论和方法无法解决的问题。复杂性科学研究系统及其复杂性，是系统科学发展的新阶段，必将对21世纪的质量系统研究产生重要影响。
本文以质量系统为研究对象，应用复杂性理论和方法，建立产品质量改进模型、顾客满意度模型，分析产品市场网络演化特性。论文研究涉及质量管理和复杂性理论的基础理论、方法及应用，论文主要内容如下：
在对质量概念、质量管理理论以及质量系统的发展演化进行回顾的基础上，对质量系统的复杂系统特性进行了全面分析，论述了质量系统是个典型的复杂系统，产品质量改进是个典型的复杂适应系统。
NK模型被用于质量系统的刻画和创新研究。通过对NK模型思想的理解，文中提出了三种NK模型的定量化描述形式。
对基本数据组合处理方法进行了改进，并将其应用于橡胶产品质量改进。
在论述顾客满意度模型是具有二分类因变量的非线性模型的基础上，提出了一种含潜在变量的Logistic联立方程模型。首先采用因子分析法提取影响满意度和忠诚度的潜在变量，然后对它们与满意与否，忠诚与否进行Logistic回归，建立了一个递归联立方程模型，并结合社区满意度实例进行了实证研究。
在介绍基本BA生长网络模型的基础上，提出了扩展BA生长网络模型，并证明了该模型的主方程与非线性Polya过程模型的等价性。进而探讨了描述顾客选择行为的概率函数类别对产品市场宏观行为的影响，包括线性概率模型、Logistic模型和抽样OC曲线模型等及其不动点分析。并结合实例进行了说明和验证。
Triggered by the improvement of the science and technology and the market demand, quality system increasingly becomes giant and complex and has evolved into a typical complex system. Thus some problems, which can't be solved with previous theories and methods, emerged. As a new stage of system science, complexity science studies systems and their complexity. It will have great influence on the reaserch of quality system in the 21 st century.
In this dissertation, we focus on the quality system. The theories and analytic methods of complexity science are applied to establish quality improvement model, customer satisfaction model and analyze the evolution of the product market network. These studies involve the fundamental theories, methods and application in many fields, such as quality management, complexity theory and so on.
The main contents in this paper can be summarized as follows:
Firstly, based on the review of the development of the quality ideas, quality management and quality system, we analyze the characteristics of the quality system expounding that the quality system is a typical complex system and the product quality improvement is a typical complex adaptive system.
Secondly, NK model is used to depict the quality system and study its innovation. Three quantitative description forms of NK model are presented in this paper based on the idea of NK model.
Thirdly, we improve the GMDH (Group Method of Data Handling) and apply it to rubber quality improvement.
Fourthly, the customer satisfaction model is a nonlinear model with dichotomous dependent variables. This paper presents a logistic simultaneous equations model with latent variables. Factor analysis is used to extract the latent variables which affect the satisfaction and loyalty. Logistic regression can be done with the latent variables and the two dependent variables--the customer satisfaction and loyalty, then a recursive simultaneous equations model are established. Finally, an example about community satisfaction is given to validate the model above.
Finally, based on the introduction of the BA growing networks, an extended BA model is proposed in this paper. The equivalence of master equation and Polya process model has been proved by the theory of probability. According to this, we discuss some kinds of probability functions, which depict the customers' choice, including linear probability model, Logistic model, and OC curve model. With these models and the analysis of their fixed points, the influence on the macroscopical behavior of the market is investigated. At last, several examples are given to illustrate and validate the conclusion of this paper.
本文以质量系统为研究对象，应用复杂性理论和方法，建立产品质量改进模型、顾客满意度模型，分析产品市场网络演化特性。论文研究涉及质量管理和复杂性理论的基础理论、方法及应用，论文主要内容如下：
在对质量概念、质量管理理论以及质量系统的发展演化进行回顾的基础上，对质量系统的复杂系统特性进行了全面分析，论述了质量系统是个典型的复杂系统，产品质量改进是个典型的复杂适应系统。
NK模型被用于质量系统的刻画和创新研究。通过对NK模型思想的理解，文中提出了三种NK模型的定量化描述形式。
对基本数据组合处理方法进行了改进，并将其应用于橡胶产品质量改进。
在论述顾客满意度模型是具有二分类因变量的非线性模型的基础上，提出了一种含潜在变量的Logistic联立方程模型。首先采用因子分析法提取影响满意度和忠诚度的潜在变量，然后对它们与满意与否，忠诚与否进行Logistic回归，建立了一个递归联立方程模型，并结合社区满意度实例进行了实证研究。
在介绍基本BA生长网络模型的基础上，提出了扩展BA生长网络模型，并证明了该模型的主方程与非线性Polya过程模型的等价性。进而探讨了描述顾客选择行为的概率函数类别对产品市场宏观行为的影响，包括线性概率模型、Logistic模型和抽样OC曲线模型等及其不动点分析。并结合实例进行了说明和验证。
Triggered by the improvement of the science and technology and the market demand, quality system increasingly becomes giant and complex and has evolved into a typical complex system. Thus some problems, which can't be solved with previous theories and methods, emerged. As a new stage of system science, complexity science studies systems and their complexity. It will have great influence on the reaserch of quality system in the 21 st century.
In this dissertation, we focus on the quality system. The theories and analytic methods of complexity science are applied to establish quality improvement model, customer satisfaction model and analyze the evolution of the product market network. These studies involve the fundamental theories, methods and application in many fields, such as quality management, complexity theory and so on.
The main contents in this paper can be summarized as follows:
Firstly, based on the review of the development of the quality ideas, quality management and quality system, we analyze the characteristics of the quality system expounding that the quality system is a typical complex system and the product quality improvement is a typical complex adaptive system.
Secondly, NK model is used to depict the quality system and study its innovation. Three quantitative description forms of NK model are presented in this paper based on the idea of NK model.
Thirdly, we improve the GMDH (Group Method of Data Handling) and apply it to rubber quality improvement.
Fourthly, the customer satisfaction model is a nonlinear model with dichotomous dependent variables. This paper presents a logistic simultaneous equations model with latent variables. Factor analysis is used to extract the latent variables which affect the satisfaction and loyalty. Logistic regression can be done with the latent variables and the two dependent variables--the customer satisfaction and loyalty, then a recursive simultaneous equations model are established. Finally, an example about community satisfaction is given to validate the model above.
Finally, based on the introduction of the BA growing networks, an extended BA model is proposed in this paper. The equivalence of master equation and Polya process model has been proved by the theory of probability. According to this, we discuss some kinds of probability functions, which depict the customers' choice, including linear probability model, Logistic model, and OC curve model. With these models and the analysis of their fixed points, the influence on the macroscopical behavior of the market is investigated. At last, several examples are given to illustrate and validate the conclusion of this paper.
引文
1 高齐圣，张嗣瀛．复杂科学与质量管理研究．管理工程学报，2005，19(4)：130-131
2 许国志．系统科学．上海：上海科技教育出版社，2000
3 成思危．复杂科学与系统工程．管理科学学报，1999，2(2)：1-7
4 张嗣瀛．复杂系统与复杂性科学简介．青岛大学学报，2001，16(4)：25-28
5 宋学锋．复杂性科学研究现状与展望．复杂系统与复杂性科学，2005，2(1)：10-17
6 金吾伦，郭元林．复杂性科学及其演变．复杂系统与复杂性科学，2004，1(1)：1-5
7 黄欣荣．复杂性科学的方法论研究．重庆：重庆大学出版社，2006
8 戴汝为，沙飞．复杂性问题研究综述：概念及研究方法．自然杂志，1995，17(2)：73-78
9 戴汝为．复杂巨系统科学—一门21世纪的科学．自然杂志，1997，19(4)：187-192
10 吕瑞华．复杂性科学及发展状况分析．中国管理科学，2000，8(11)：287-291
11 于景元．关于复杂性研究．北京：科学出版社，1993
12 钱学森等．一个科学新领域——开放的复杂巨系统及其方法论．自然杂志，1990(1)：3-10
13 金吾伦，郭元林．国外复杂性科学的研究进展．国外社会科学，2003(6)：2-5
14 戴汝为．关于“复杂性”研究——一门21世纪的科学，科学的前沿与未来．北京：科学出版社，1998：182-207
15 (美)7homas Pyzdek著，孙静译．六西格玛手册．北京：清华大学出版社，2003
16 Harry M.J. Six Sigma: A Breakthrough Strategy for Profitability. Quality Progress, 1998, 31(5): 60-64
17 韩福荣．质量生态学．北京：科学出版社，2005
18 陈楚俊．从ISO看现代质量概念．新质量，2002(1)：19-21
19 栗辉．质量是企业管理的永恒主题．市场研究，2004(1)：26-27
20 林盛．基于PLS结构方程模型的服务行业顾客满意度测评方法及应用研究：[博士论文]．天津大学，2002，12
21 李秀．CIMS环境下产品质量系统工程．北京：机械工业出版社，2004
22 S．托马斯．福斯特著，何桢译．质量管理：集成的方法．北京：中国人民大学出版社，2006
23 刘石兰，任浩．探析全面质量管理与传统管理的区别．商业研究，2006(5)：122-124
24 Alwan L.C.. General Data Analysis Supported SPC.Quality engineering, 2003, 15(3):371-382
25 Nembhard H.B. and Kao M.S.. Implementing SPC in a Simulation Model for Manufacturing Transitions. Quality engineering, 2001, 14(1): 127-136
26 Wu Z., Xie M. and Zhang S.. A Virtual System for Vision Base SPC. Quality engineering, 2005, 17(3):337-343
27 Bisgaard S. and Kulahci M.M.. Checking Process Stability with the Variogram. Quality engineering, 2005, 17(2):323-327
28 Engin A.B.. An Application and Use of Economic and Statistiacl Control Chart Design for the Textile Yarn Industry. Quality engineering, 2004, 16(4):625-635
29 William J. M.. A working definition for total quality management (TQM) researchers.Journal of Quality Management, 1996,1 (2): 149-159
30 Cengiz H.. Total Quality Management in the small business environment. Business Horizons,1996,39(2):33-40
31 Forza C. and Filippini R..TQM impact on quality conformance and customer satisfaction: A causal model. International Journal of Production Economics, 1998, 55(1): 1-20
32 Martínez-Lorente A.R., Rodríguez C.S. and Dewhurst F.W.. The effect of information technologies on TQM: An initial analysis.International Journal of Production Economics,2004, 89(1):77-93
33 Prajogo D.I. and Sohal A.S.. The relationship between organization strategy, total quality management (TQM), and organization performance-the mediating role of TQM.European Journal of Operational Research, 2006, 168(1):35-50
34 Linderman K., Schroeder R.G. and Choo A.S.. Six Sigma: The role of goals in improvement teams. Journal of Operations Management, 2006, 24(6):779-790
35 Kwak Y.H. and Anbari F.T.. Benefits, obstacles, and future of six sigma approach. Technovation, 2006, 26(5-6): 708-715
36 Manual D.. Six Sigma methodology: reducing defects in business processes. Filtration & Separation, 2006, 43(1):34-36
37 Sokovic M., Pavletic D. and Fakin S.. Application of Six Sigma methodology for process design.Journal of Materials Processing Technology, 2005(162):777-783
38 张嗣瀛．复杂性科学，整体规律与定性研究．复杂系统与复杂性科学，2005，2(1)：71-83
39 张嗣瀛．复杂系统的演化过程，n(n-1)律，自聚集．复杂系统与复杂性科学，2005，2(3)：84-90
40 郝柏林．复杂性的刻画与“复杂性科学”．科学，1999，(3)：85-89
41 (英)欧阳莹之著，田宝国，周亚，樊瑛译．复杂系统理论基础．上海：上海科技教育出版社，2002
42 陈森发．复杂系统建模理论与方法．南京：东南大学出版社，2005
43 颜泽贤，范冬萍，张华夏．系统科学导论——复杂性探索．北京：人民出版社，2006
44 成思危．复杂科学与管理．中国科学院院刊，1999，14(3)：175-183
45 张启人，林福永．复杂性科学中复杂性根源的研究．系统工程理论与实践，2002(10)：66-71
46 钟晓宏．复杂性、简单性与系统整体性的约束．系统辩证学学报，2004，12(4)：31-32
47 约翰．霍甘．科学的终结．呼和浩特：远方出版社，1997：329
48 李天民．论复杂系统．系统工程，1986，4(2)：24-29
49 王成红，王飞跃，宋苏，贺建军．复杂系统研究中几个值得关注的问题．控制理论与应用，2005，22(4)：604-608
50 宋学锋．复杂性、复杂系统与复杂性科学．中国科学基金，2003(5)：262-269
51 (美)盖尔曼著，杨建邺等译．夸克与美洲豹：简单性和复杂性的奇遇．长沙：湖南科学技术出版社，1999
52 范冬萍．复杂系统的突现与层次．学术研究，2006(12)：35-39
53 (美)Holland J．H．，陈禹译．涌现--从混沌到有序．上海：上海科学技术出版社，2006
54 Holland J.H.. Hiden Order: How adaptation builds complexity. Addison: Wesley publishing company, 1995
55 李挺．复杂系统中的自适应性．浙江师范大学学报(自然科学版)，2006，29(4)：410-413
56 刘冬梅，质量改进PDCA．企业管理，2005(6)：46-47
57 耿金花，高齐圣．质量改进——典型的复杂适应系统．商业研究(已录用)
58 方美琪，张树人．复杂系统建模与仿真．北京：中国人民大学出版社，2005
59 苗东升．系统科学精要．第2版．北京：中国人民大学出版社，2006
60 郭炳发．霍兰的复杂适应系统理论及其应用．华中科技大学学报(社会科学版)，2004(3)：70-71
61 Markose S.M.. Novelty in complex adaptive systems (CAS) dynamics: a computational theory of actor innovation. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications,2004,344(1):41-49
62 Steven F.R.. Concepts from complex adaptive systems as a framework for individual-based modeling. Ecological Modelling,2001, 139(1):47-62
63 谭跃进，邓宏钟．复杂适应系统理论及其应用研究．系统工程，2001，19(5)：1-6
64 陈禹．复杂适应系统(CAS)理论及其应用——由来、内容与启示．系统辩证学学报，2001，9(4)：35-39
65 屈坤如．六西格玛的改进方法．石油工业技术监督，2004，20(5)：58-59
66 Rasis D. and Gitlow H.S.. Edward Popovich.paper organizers international a fictitious six sigma green belt case study.I.Quality Engineering, 2002,15(1): 127-145
67 Rasis D. and Gitlow H.S.. Edward Popovich.paper organizers international a fictitious six sigma green belt case study.Ⅱ.Quality Engineering, 2002,15(2):259-274
68 Lupan R., Bacivarof I.C. and Kobi A.. Christian Robledo.A relationship between six sigma and ISO9000:2000.Quality Engineering, 2005,17(4):719-725
69 张绍镛．质量管理中的试验设计方法．北京：北京理工大学出版社，1991
70 栾军．现代试验设计优化方法．上海：上海交通大学出版社，1995
71 Gao Q.S. and Pan D.H.. Uniform grid and its application in rubber prescription optimization.合成橡胶工业，1998，21(6)：364
72 高齐圣，潘德惠．随机均匀网格优化法在橡胶配方优化中的应用研究．系统工程理论与实践，1999(11)：87-91
73 王大海．绩效管理中的PDCA循环．商场现代化，2006(485)：92
74 任锦鸾．基于复杂性理论的创新系统理论及应用研究：[博士论文]．天津大学管理学院，2002
75 Frenken K.. A Complexity Approach to Innovation Networks, The case of the aircraft industry (1909-1997). Research Policy. 2000, 29(2):257-272
76 Fleming L. and Sorenson O.. Technology as a complex adaptive system evidence from patent data. Research Policy. 2001(30):1019-1039
77 徐迪．商务模式创新复杂性研究．北京：经济管理出版社，2005
78 Welch J.J. and Waxman D.. The nk model and population genetics.Journal of Theoretical Biology. 2005(234):329-340
79 Frenken K.. A fitness landscape approach to technological complexity, modularity, and vertical disintegration. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 2006 (17): 288-305
80 Levinthal D.A.. Adaptation on rugger landscapes. Management Science,1997, 43(7): 945-950
81 Gavetti G. and Levinthal D.A.. Looking forward and looking backward: cognitive and experiential search. Administrative Science Quarterly, 2000, 45(1): 113-137
82 Rivkin J.W.. Imitation of complex stratedies. Management Science, 2000, 46(6): 824-844
83 Auerswald P., Kauffman S., Lobo J. and Shell K..The Production recipes approach to modeling technological innovation: An application to learning by doing.Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control. 2000(24):389-450
84 Frenken K.. Modeling the organization of innovation activity using the NK-model.the Nelson-and Winter conference, Aalborg.2001:12-16
85 Fath Brian D. and Grant W.E.. Ecosystems as evolutionary complex systems:Network analysis of fitness models.Environmental Modelling & Software,2007(22):693-700
86 贺昌政．自组织数据挖掘与经济预测．北京：科学出版社，2005
87 Oh S.K. and Pedrycz W.. Genetic optimization-driven multi-layer hybrid fuzzy neural networks.Simulation Modelling Paractice and Theory. 2006(14):597-613
88 高齐圣，隋树林，范汝良等．数据处理组合法在橡胶配方设计回归建模种的应用．合成橡胶工业，1997，20(3)：169-170
89 朴光哲，隋树林，高齐圣，唐学明．计算机在优化顺丁橡胶聚合过程中的应用(Ⅰ)．合成橡胶工业，1992，15(5)：315-318
90 金政吉等．用动态变换模型设计硫化胶配方．合成橡胶工业，1993，16(6)：264
91 王芳平，李炳瑞，陈建刚，武爱军．BP神经网络在橡胶试验中的应用．石化技术与应用，2004，22(2)：100-103
92 Aiello, Czepiel and Rosenberg L.J.. Consumer Satisfaction Toward and integrative framework. Proceedings of the southern marketing association, 1976:169-171
93 耿金花，高齐圣，任敬喜，张嗣瀛．基于Logistic回归的社区满意度模型．控制与决策
94 (美)德里克．艾伦，特尼鲁．拉奥，陶峻，李惠墦译．客户满意度数据分析．大连：东北财经大学出版社，2005
95 Azaranga M.R., Gonzalez G. and Reavill L.. An Empirical Investigation of the Relationship between Quality Improvement Techniques and Performance—a Mexican Case. Journal of Quality Management, 1998, 3 (2): 265-292
96 Nilsson L., Johnson M.D. and Gustafsson A.. The Impact of Quality Practices on Customer Satisfaction and Business Results: Product versus Service Organizations. Journal of Quality Management, 2001, 6(1): 5-27
97 林盛，刘金兰，韩文秀．基于PLS-结构方程的顾客满意度评价方法．系统工程学报，2005，20(6)：653-656．
98 张新安，田澎．OLS与PLS方法在顾客满意度建模中的模拟比较．生产力研究，2004，19(6)：81-83
99 张新安，田澎．顾客满意度线性建模中多重共线性处理方法的模拟研究．工业工程与管理，2004，11(4)：73-77
100 Snipes R.L., Oswald S.L., LaTour M. and etc. the Effects of Specific Job Satisfaction Facets on Customer Perceptions of Service Quality: an Employee-Level Analysis.Journal of Business Research, 2005, 58 (10):1330-1339
101 Roh T.H., Ahn C.K. and Han I.. The Priority Factor Model for Customer Relationship Management System Success. Expert Systems with Applications, 2005, 28(4): 641-654
102 Lin C., Chow W.S., Madu C.N. and etc. A Structural Equation Model of Supply Chain Quality Management and Organizational Performance.International Journal of Production Economics.2005, 96(3):355-365
103 廖颖林．结构方程模型及其在顾客满意度研究中的应用．统计与决策，2005，21(17)：24-26
104 耿金花，高齐圣．基于联立方程的社区满意度模型研究：系统工程，2007，25(3)：111-114
105 曾凤章，王元华．神经网络在顾客满意度测评中的应用．北京理工大学学报(社会科学版)，2005，7(2)：45-47
106 金少胜，周洁红．神经网络在顾客满意度研究中的应用．统计与决策，2003(5)：82
107 Shoemaker S. and Lewis R.C.. Customer Loyalty: the future of hospitality marketing. Hospitality Management, 1999(8):345-370
108 Cronin J.J. and Taylor S.A.. Measuring Service Quality: a reexamination and extension. Journal of marketing, 1992(56):55-68
109 Anderson, Eugene W. and Sullivan M.W.. Customer satisfaction and retention across firms. presentation at the time college of marketing special interest conference on service marketing, 1990
110 Woodside A.G., Frey L. and Daly R.T.. Linking service quality, customer satisfaction and behavioral intention.Journal of care marketing, 1989:5-17
111 Parasuraman A., Zeithaml V.A. and Berry L.L.. Refinement and reassessment of the SERVQUAL scale.Journal of retailing, 1991 (67):420-450
112 Zeithaml V.A., Berry L.L. and Parasuraman A. The behavioral consequences of service quality.Journal of marketing, 1996, 60(2):31-46
113 Heskett J.L., Jones T.O. and etc. Putting the service-profit chain to work.Harvard business review, 1994:164-174
114 Oliver T.A., R.L. Oliver and I. MacMilian A Catastrophe Model for Developing Service Satisfaction Strategies.Journal of Marketing. 1992(56):83-95
115 张新安，田澎，张烈平．顾客满意度测评模型．系统工程理论方法与应用，2002，11(3)：248-252
116 单菁菁．社区情感与社区建设．北京：社会科学文献出版社，2005
117 Watts D.J. and Strogatz S.H.. Collective dynamics of 'small-world' networks. Nature, 1998, 393(6684): 440-442
118 Barabasi A.L. and Albert R.. Emergence of scaling in random networks. Science, 1999, 286(5439):509-512
119 Newman M.E.J.. The structure and function of complex networks.SIAM Review, 2003(45): 167-256
120 Albert R. and Barabási A.L.. Statistical mechanics of complex networks.Reviews of Modern Physics. 2002(74): 47-97
121 高齐圣，耿金花，方爱丽，张嗣瀛．基于BA生长网络的产品市场演化分析．控制与决策，2007，22(5)：554-557
122 Erdos P. and Rényi A.. On the evolution of random graphs. Publ. Math. Inst. Hung. Acad. Sci. 1960(5):17-60
123 Bollobáis B. Random Graphs. 2nd ed. New York: Academic Press,2001
124 Newman M.E.J and Watts D.J.. Renormalization group analysis of the small-world network model. Phys. Lett. A, 1999(263): 341-346
125 Barabasi A.L., Albert R. and Jeong H.. Mean-field theory for scale-free random networks. Physica A. 1999(272): 173-187
126 张嗣瀛．自聚集、吸引核与聚集量．复杂系统与复杂性科学，2005，2(4)：84-92
127 Dorogovtsev S.N, Mendes J.F.F and Samukhin A.N.. Structure of growing networks with preferential linking.Phys. Rev. Lett., 2000(85):4633-4636
128 Krapivsky P.L, Redner S., Leyvraz F.. Connectivity of growing random networks. Phys. Rev. Lett., 2000(85):4629-4632
129 郑维敏．正反馈．北京：清华大学出版社，1998
130 罗家德．社会网络分析讲义．北京：社会科学文献出版社，2005
131 王众托．系统工程引论．第3版．北京：电子工业出版社，2006
132 孙荣恒．随机过程及应用．北京：清华大学出版社，2004
2 许国志．系统科学．上海：上海科技教育出版社，2000
3 成思危．复杂科学与系统工程．管理科学学报，1999，2(2)：1-7
4 张嗣瀛．复杂系统与复杂性科学简介．青岛大学学报，2001，16(4)：25-28
5 宋学锋．复杂性科学研究现状与展望．复杂系统与复杂性科学，2005，2(1)：10-17
6 金吾伦，郭元林．复杂性科学及其演变．复杂系统与复杂性科学，2004，1(1)：1-5
7 黄欣荣．复杂性科学的方法论研究．重庆：重庆大学出版社，2006
8 戴汝为，沙飞．复杂性问题研究综述：概念及研究方法．自然杂志，1995，17(2)：73-78
9 戴汝为．复杂巨系统科学—一门21世纪的科学．自然杂志，1997，19(4)：187-192
10 吕瑞华．复杂性科学及发展状况分析．中国管理科学，2000，8(11)：287-291
11 于景元．关于复杂性研究．北京：科学出版社，1993
12 钱学森等．一个科学新领域——开放的复杂巨系统及其方法论．自然杂志，1990(1)：3-10
13 金吾伦，郭元林．国外复杂性科学的研究进展．国外社会科学，2003(6)：2-5
14 戴汝为．关于“复杂性”研究——一门21世纪的科学，科学的前沿与未来．北京：科学出版社，1998：182-207
15 (美)7homas Pyzdek著，孙静译．六西格玛手册．北京：清华大学出版社，2003
16 Harry M.J. Six Sigma: A Breakthrough Strategy for Profitability. Quality Progress, 1998, 31(5): 60-64
17 韩福荣．质量生态学．北京：科学出版社，2005
18 陈楚俊．从ISO看现代质量概念．新质量，2002(1)：19-21
19 栗辉．质量是企业管理的永恒主题．市场研究，2004(1)：26-27
20 林盛．基于PLS结构方程模型的服务行业顾客满意度测评方法及应用研究：[博士论文]．天津大学，2002，12
21 李秀．CIMS环境下产品质量系统工程．北京：机械工业出版社，2004
22 S．托马斯．福斯特著，何桢译．质量管理：集成的方法．北京：中国人民大学出版社，2006
23 刘石兰，任浩．探析全面质量管理与传统管理的区别．商业研究，2006(5)：122-124
24 Alwan L.C.. General Data Analysis Supported SPC.Quality engineering, 2003, 15(3):371-382
25 Nembhard H.B. and Kao M.S.. Implementing SPC in a Simulation Model for Manufacturing Transitions. Quality engineering, 2001, 14(1): 127-136
26 Wu Z., Xie M. and Zhang S.. A Virtual System for Vision Base SPC. Quality engineering, 2005, 17(3):337-343
27 Bisgaard S. and Kulahci M.M.. Checking Process Stability with the Variogram. Quality engineering, 2005, 17(2):323-327
28 Engin A.B.. An Application and Use of Economic and Statistiacl Control Chart Design for the Textile Yarn Industry. Quality engineering, 2004, 16(4):625-635
29 William J. M.. A working definition for total quality management (TQM) researchers.Journal of Quality Management, 1996,1 (2): 149-159
30 Cengiz H.. Total Quality Management in the small business environment. Business Horizons,1996,39(2):33-40
31 Forza C. and Filippini R..TQM impact on quality conformance and customer satisfaction: A causal model. International Journal of Production Economics, 1998, 55(1): 1-20
32 Martínez-Lorente A.R., Rodríguez C.S. and Dewhurst F.W.. The effect of information technologies on TQM: An initial analysis.International Journal of Production Economics,2004, 89(1):77-93
33 Prajogo D.I. and Sohal A.S.. The relationship between organization strategy, total quality management (TQM), and organization performance-the mediating role of TQM.European Journal of Operational Research, 2006, 168(1):35-50
34 Linderman K., Schroeder R.G. and Choo A.S.. Six Sigma: The role of goals in improvement teams. Journal of Operations Management, 2006, 24(6):779-790
35 Kwak Y.H. and Anbari F.T.. Benefits, obstacles, and future of six sigma approach. Technovation, 2006, 26(5-6): 708-715
36 Manual D.. Six Sigma methodology: reducing defects in business processes. Filtration & Separation, 2006, 43(1):34-36
37 Sokovic M., Pavletic D. and Fakin S.. Application of Six Sigma methodology for process design.Journal of Materials Processing Technology, 2005(162):777-783
38 张嗣瀛．复杂性科学，整体规律与定性研究．复杂系统与复杂性科学，2005，2(1)：71-83
39 张嗣瀛．复杂系统的演化过程，n(n-1)律，自聚集．复杂系统与复杂性科学，2005，2(3)：84-90
40 郝柏林．复杂性的刻画与“复杂性科学”．科学，1999，(3)：85-89
41 (英)欧阳莹之著，田宝国，周亚，樊瑛译．复杂系统理论基础．上海：上海科技教育出版社，2002
42 陈森发．复杂系统建模理论与方法．南京：东南大学出版社，2005
43 颜泽贤，范冬萍，张华夏．系统科学导论——复杂性探索．北京：人民出版社，2006
44 成思危．复杂科学与管理．中国科学院院刊，1999，14(3)：175-183
45 张启人，林福永．复杂性科学中复杂性根源的研究．系统工程理论与实践，2002(10)：66-71
46 钟晓宏．复杂性、简单性与系统整体性的约束．系统辩证学学报，2004，12(4)：31-32
47 约翰．霍甘．科学的终结．呼和浩特：远方出版社，1997：329
48 李天民．论复杂系统．系统工程，1986，4(2)：24-29
49 王成红，王飞跃，宋苏，贺建军．复杂系统研究中几个值得关注的问题．控制理论与应用，2005，22(4)：604-608
50 宋学锋．复杂性、复杂系统与复杂性科学．中国科学基金，2003(5)：262-269
51 (美)盖尔曼著，杨建邺等译．夸克与美洲豹：简单性和复杂性的奇遇．长沙：湖南科学技术出版社，1999
52 范冬萍．复杂系统的突现与层次．学术研究，2006(12)：35-39
53 (美)Holland J．H．，陈禹译．涌现--从混沌到有序．上海：上海科学技术出版社，2006
54 Holland J.H.. Hiden Order: How adaptation builds complexity. Addison: Wesley publishing company, 1995
55 李挺．复杂系统中的自适应性．浙江师范大学学报(自然科学版)，2006，29(4)：410-413
56 刘冬梅，质量改进PDCA．企业管理，2005(6)：46-47
57 耿金花，高齐圣．质量改进——典型的复杂适应系统．商业研究(已录用)
58 方美琪，张树人．复杂系统建模与仿真．北京：中国人民大学出版社，2005
59 苗东升．系统科学精要．第2版．北京：中国人民大学出版社，2006
60 郭炳发．霍兰的复杂适应系统理论及其应用．华中科技大学学报(社会科学版)，2004(3)：70-71
61 Markose S.M.. Novelty in complex adaptive systems (CAS) dynamics: a computational theory of actor innovation. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications,2004,344(1):41-49
62 Steven F.R.. Concepts from complex adaptive systems as a framework for individual-based modeling. Ecological Modelling,2001, 139(1):47-62
63 谭跃进，邓宏钟．复杂适应系统理论及其应用研究．系统工程，2001，19(5)：1-6
64 陈禹．复杂适应系统(CAS)理论及其应用——由来、内容与启示．系统辩证学学报，2001，9(4)：35-39
65 屈坤如．六西格玛的改进方法．石油工业技术监督，2004，20(5)：58-59
66 Rasis D. and Gitlow H.S.. Edward Popovich.paper organizers international a fictitious six sigma green belt case study.I.Quality Engineering, 2002,15(1): 127-145
67 Rasis D. and Gitlow H.S.. Edward Popovich.paper organizers international a fictitious six sigma green belt case study.Ⅱ.Quality Engineering, 2002,15(2):259-274
68 Lupan R., Bacivarof I.C. and Kobi A.. Christian Robledo.A relationship between six sigma and ISO9000:2000.Quality Engineering, 2005,17(4):719-725
69 张绍镛．质量管理中的试验设计方法．北京：北京理工大学出版社，1991
70 栾军．现代试验设计优化方法．上海：上海交通大学出版社，1995
71 Gao Q.S. and Pan D.H.. Uniform grid and its application in rubber prescription optimization.合成橡胶工业，1998，21(6)：364
72 高齐圣，潘德惠．随机均匀网格优化法在橡胶配方优化中的应用研究．系统工程理论与实践，1999(11)：87-91
73 王大海．绩效管理中的PDCA循环．商场现代化，2006(485)：92
74 任锦鸾．基于复杂性理论的创新系统理论及应用研究：[博士论文]．天津大学管理学院，2002
75 Frenken K.. A Complexity Approach to Innovation Networks, The case of the aircraft industry (1909-1997). Research Policy. 2000, 29(2):257-272
76 Fleming L. and Sorenson O.. Technology as a complex adaptive system evidence from patent data. Research Policy. 2001(30):1019-1039
77 徐迪．商务模式创新复杂性研究．北京：经济管理出版社，2005
78 Welch J.J. and Waxman D.. The nk model and population genetics.Journal of Theoretical Biology. 2005(234):329-340
79 Frenken K.. A fitness landscape approach to technological complexity, modularity, and vertical disintegration. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 2006 (17): 288-305
80 Levinthal D.A.. Adaptation on rugger landscapes. Management Science,1997, 43(7): 945-950
81 Gavetti G. and Levinthal D.A.. Looking forward and looking backward: cognitive and experiential search. Administrative Science Quarterly, 2000, 45(1): 113-137
82 Rivkin J.W.. Imitation of complex stratedies. Management Science, 2000, 46(6): 824-844
83 Auerswald P., Kauffman S., Lobo J. and Shell K..The Production recipes approach to modeling technological innovation: An application to learning by doing.Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control. 2000(24):389-450
84 Frenken K.. Modeling the organization of innovation activity using the NK-model.the Nelson-and Winter conference, Aalborg.2001:12-16
85 Fath Brian D. and Grant W.E.. Ecosystems as evolutionary complex systems:Network analysis of fitness models.Environmental Modelling & Software,2007(22):693-700
86 贺昌政．自组织数据挖掘与经济预测．北京：科学出版社，2005
87 Oh S.K. and Pedrycz W.. Genetic optimization-driven multi-layer hybrid fuzzy neural networks.Simulation Modelling Paractice and Theory. 2006(14):597-613
88 高齐圣，隋树林，范汝良等．数据处理组合法在橡胶配方设计回归建模种的应用．合成橡胶工业，1997，20(3)：169-170
89 朴光哲，隋树林，高齐圣，唐学明．计算机在优化顺丁橡胶聚合过程中的应用(Ⅰ)．合成橡胶工业，1992，15(5)：315-318
90 金政吉等．用动态变换模型设计硫化胶配方．合成橡胶工业，1993，16(6)：264
91 王芳平，李炳瑞，陈建刚，武爱军．BP神经网络在橡胶试验中的应用．石化技术与应用，2004，22(2)：100-103
92 Aiello, Czepiel and Rosenberg L.J.. Consumer Satisfaction Toward and integrative framework. Proceedings of the southern marketing association, 1976:169-171
93 耿金花，高齐圣，任敬喜，张嗣瀛．基于Logistic回归的社区满意度模型．控制与决策
94 (美)德里克．艾伦，特尼鲁．拉奥，陶峻，李惠墦译．客户满意度数据分析．大连：东北财经大学出版社，2005
95 Azaranga M.R., Gonzalez G. and Reavill L.. An Empirical Investigation of the Relationship between Quality Improvement Techniques and Performance—a Mexican Case. Journal of Quality Management, 1998, 3 (2): 265-292
96 Nilsson L., Johnson M.D. and Gustafsson A.. The Impact of Quality Practices on Customer Satisfaction and Business Results: Product versus Service Organizations. Journal of Quality Management, 2001, 6(1): 5-27
97 林盛，刘金兰，韩文秀．基于PLS-结构方程的顾客满意度评价方法．系统工程学报，2005，20(6)：653-656．
98 张新安，田澎．OLS与PLS方法在顾客满意度建模中的模拟比较．生产力研究，2004，19(6)：81-83
99 张新安，田澎．顾客满意度线性建模中多重共线性处理方法的模拟研究．工业工程与管理，2004，11(4)：73-77
100 Snipes R.L., Oswald S.L., LaTour M. and etc. the Effects of Specific Job Satisfaction Facets on Customer Perceptions of Service Quality: an Employee-Level Analysis.Journal of Business Research, 2005, 58 (10):1330-1339
101 Roh T.H., Ahn C.K. and Han I.. The Priority Factor Model for Customer Relationship Management System Success. Expert Systems with Applications, 2005, 28(4): 641-654
102 Lin C., Chow W.S., Madu C.N. and etc. A Structural Equation Model of Supply Chain Quality Management and Organizational Performance.International Journal of Production Economics.2005, 96(3):355-365
103 廖颖林．结构方程模型及其在顾客满意度研究中的应用．统计与决策，2005，21(17)：24-26
104 耿金花，高齐圣．基于联立方程的社区满意度模型研究：系统工程，2007，25(3)：111-114
105 曾凤章，王元华．神经网络在顾客满意度测评中的应用．北京理工大学学报(社会科学版)，2005，7(2)：45-47
106 金少胜，周洁红．神经网络在顾客满意度研究中的应用．统计与决策，2003(5)：82
107 Shoemaker S. and Lewis R.C.. Customer Loyalty: the future of hospitality marketing. Hospitality Management, 1999(8):345-370
108 Cronin J.J. and Taylor S.A.. Measuring Service Quality: a reexamination and extension. Journal of marketing, 1992(56):55-68
109 Anderson, Eugene W. and Sullivan M.W.. Customer satisfaction and retention across firms. presentation at the time college of marketing special interest conference on service marketing, 1990
110 Woodside A.G., Frey L. and Daly R.T.. Linking service quality, customer satisfaction and behavioral intention.Journal of care marketing, 1989:5-17
111 Parasuraman A., Zeithaml V.A. and Berry L.L.. Refinement and reassessment of the SERVQUAL scale.Journal of retailing, 1991 (67):420-450
112 Zeithaml V.A., Berry L.L. and Parasuraman A. The behavioral consequences of service quality.Journal of marketing, 1996, 60(2):31-46
113 Heskett J.L., Jones T.O. and etc. Putting the service-profit chain to work.Harvard business review, 1994:164-174
114 Oliver T.A., R.L. Oliver and I. MacMilian A Catastrophe Model for Developing Service Satisfaction Strategies.Journal of Marketing. 1992(56):83-95
115 张新安，田澎，张烈平．顾客满意度测评模型．系统工程理论方法与应用，2002，11(3)：248-252
116 单菁菁．社区情感与社区建设．北京：社会科学文献出版社，2005
117 Watts D.J. and Strogatz S.H.. Collective dynamics of 'small-world' networks. Nature, 1998, 393(6684): 440-442
118 Barabasi A.L. and Albert R.. Emergence of scaling in random networks. Science, 1999, 286(5439):509-512
119 Newman M.E.J.. The structure and function of complex networks.SIAM Review, 2003(45): 167-256
120 Albert R. and Barabási A.L.. Statistical mechanics of complex networks.Reviews of Modern Physics. 2002(74): 47-97
121 高齐圣，耿金花，方爱丽，张嗣瀛．基于BA生长网络的产品市场演化分析．控制与决策，2007，22(5)：554-557
122 Erdos P. and Rényi A.. On the evolution of random graphs. Publ. Math. Inst. Hung. Acad. Sci. 1960(5):17-60
123 Bollobáis B. Random Graphs. 2nd ed. New York: Academic Press,2001
124 Newman M.E.J and Watts D.J.. Renormalization group analysis of the small-world network model. Phys. Lett. A, 1999(263): 341-346
125 Barabasi A.L., Albert R. and Jeong H.. Mean-field theory for scale-free random networks. Physica A. 1999(272): 173-187
126 张嗣瀛．自聚集、吸引核与聚集量．复杂系统与复杂性科学，2005，2(4)：84-92
127 Dorogovtsev S.N, Mendes J.F.F and Samukhin A.N.. Structure of growing networks with preferential linking.Phys. Rev. Lett., 2000(85):4633-4636
128 Krapivsky P.L, Redner S., Leyvraz F.. Connectivity of growing random networks. Phys. Rev. Lett., 2000(85):4629-4632
129 郑维敏．正反馈．北京：清华大学出版社，1998
130 罗家德．社会网络分析讲义．北京：社会科学文献出版社，2005
131 王众托．系统工程引论．第3版．北京：电子工业出版社，2006
132 孙荣恒．随机过程及应用．北京：清华大学出版社，2004