实际有效汇率对我国主要宏观经济变量影响的实证研究
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摘要
在中国经济日益开放和经济总量日益增长的国内形势下，同时在世界性的金融危机发生逐步频繁和经济金融冲击在国际之间越来越明显的国际形势下，我国的人民币汇率水平已经成为国内国外理论界、实业界、政府以及我国民众高度关注的一个主要核心经济变量。因此一个合理的人民币汇率水平，不仅有助于我国与世界各国之间进行经济与贸易往来，也有助于我国经济保持长期的稳定、持续以及高效发展有着重要的意义。新千年以来我国经济出现了持续高速的增长，国际社会中以美国为首的国家强烈要求人民币升值，人民币升值预期不断强化已经使我国人民币汇率升值成为今后的发展路径，然而汇率作为我国与世界国家经济交流的桥梁和媒介，人民币汇率水平的变动对我国的宏观经济将产生重大影响。我国宏观经济发展的主要目标是保持物价稳定、增加社会就业、保持国际收支平衡和促进经济增长四个基本目标。在这四个目标中虽然促进经济增长是最重要的目标，但是要实现这个最重要目标的基础是依靠物价的稳定、社会就业的增加以及保持国际收支的平衡。所以在我国对外开放水平不断深化的形势下，保持我国物价水平、增加社会就业以及保持国际收支平衡变的更加复杂，因为要实现这三个宏观经济目标不仅要保持我国内部经济的均衡，同时也要维持我国外部经济的均衡，内外均衡的同时实现的过程中汇率这个核心经济变量在其中起着决定性的作用。
随着世界经济一体化趋势的不断深化，我国的汇率制度以及汇率政策也要随着我国经济的发展和世界经济的发展而变化，先前的汇率制度以及汇率政策已经不适合我国现在经济的发展状况。因此，我国在2005年重新启动一次汇率体制改革，其实质上是为了完善我国有管理的浮动汇率制度上而做出重要调整。我国这次汇率体制的改革改变了我国汇率的决定机制以及增加了汇率的波动性，由参考一篮子货币的汇率使我国的人民币实际有效汇率在宏观经济的运行当中凸现出来，我国人民币实际有效汇率对我国宏观经济调节力度逐步深化，因此研究我国人民币实际有效汇率对我国宏观调控主要经济变量的影响摆在了更加突出与重要的位置上。
研究我国人民币实际有效汇率与我国主要宏观经济变量的影响关系也就体现在三个主要方面，即人民币实际有汇率与物价水平的关系、人民币实际有效汇率与充分就业的关系、人民币实际有效汇率与贸易收支的关系以及人民币实际有效汇率与外国直接投资的关系来实证研究。在实证研究人民币实际有效汇率与这三者关系之前，详细地研究了汇率本身的决定机制和运行规律。首先，根据我国在2005年汇率改革的基础上，依据现行的汇率制度和汇率政策对我国1994到2010年的人民币实际有效汇率的月度数据进行度量，我国人民币实际有效汇率能够真实的度量我国人民币的实际价值以及外币对比关系，采用我国与主要的贸易伙伴国之间变化的贸易量占我国总贸易的份额来衡量其外币在我国人民币实际有效汇率形成的权重，这种以动态变化度量的人民币实际有效汇率对我国利用汇率水平来调节宏观经济中的主要经济变量具有重要的参考价值和借鉴意义。
人民币实际有效汇率作为汇率真实价值的体现，其本质是度量外币的价值而具有价格的特征，作为具有价格特性的经济变量就决定了人民币实际有效汇率本身具有波动性，并在长期内有趋于均衡的目标路径，因此要保持我国人民币汇率在经济运行中处于合理和可控的范围，才能保证我国经济高效平稳发展。综合考虑以均衡实际汇率理论的基础上，以实际测算的我国1994-2010年的人民币实际有效汇率的月度数据为基础，对我国的人民币实际有效汇率的短期均衡与失调以及人民币实际有效汇率的长期均衡与失调情况进行了详细分析。在充分的了解人民币实际有效汇率自身波动性和失调性的基础上，才能更切合实际的研究人民币实际有效汇率与我国主要宏观经济变量的影响作用关系。在我国汇率自身的波动以及汇率对其他经济变量的影响中，能更加准确的把握我国人民币汇率对各个经济变量的传递影响关系，为我国制定宏观经济调控政策和调节手段提供基本的理论依据和实证检验。
物价水平的稳定是我国宏观调控的关键性目标之一，人民币实际有效汇率作为衡量本国货币的外币真实价值，其汇率自身的波动一定会经过传导作用最终作用于经济运行中价格水平这个主要的经济变量。衡量我国价格水平的主要价格指数是进口价格指数和消费者价格指数，这两个指数的变化直接影响着我国整体价格水平的变动。因此根据开放经济宏观经济学的基本理论，建立人民币实际有效汇率与价格水平的理论模型，从模型中选取主要的影响经济因素变量来分析人民币实际有效汇率对我国物价水平的影响。
就业是我国利民之本，是人民群众改善生活的基本前提和根本途径。我国就业状况切实关系到人民的切身利益，关系到改革发展稳定的全局，关系到我国全面建设小康社会的宏伟目标实现。我国的就业形势目前十分严峻，主要表现在一方面我国现在存在大量剩余劳动力的，随着农业生产力的提高大量闲置农村劳动力从农村转移到城市，另一方面我国目前的产业结构吸纳劳动力的数量有限，劳动力需求和供给的失衡导致我国的就业形势不容乐观。通过建立适合我国宏观经济发展形势的一般可计算均衡模型，分析了我国人民币实际有效汇率的变动对我国产业结构中的第一产业、第二产业以及第三产业劳动就业的影响，进而为我国通过人民币汇率变动实现增加就业缓解严峻就业形势，最终实现我国宏观调控目标提供政策性的模拟分析。
国际收支是国与国因经济贸易交易而引起的货币收付或以货币表示的财产转移。影响开放国家国际收支的两个主要因素是进出口贸易状况和资本流动状况，而汇率作为国际收支账户活动的主要交换媒介，人民币实际有效汇率的变动将对我国的贸易收支和资本流动有着重要影响作用。在总结和归纳国际收支相关理论后，结合我国贸易收支和外国直接投资的主要特征和表现，对我国人民币实际有效汇率对我国贸易收支和外国直接投资进行实证分析，在分析人民币实际有效汇率对贸易收支的影响主要应用向量误差修正模型（VEC），而在分析我国人民币实际有效汇率对外国直接投资的影响，主要采用国际面板数据对我国人民币实际有效汇率对外国直接投资的影响进行实证检验。
With the situation of economy opening up and the amount of it increasing up gradually,andwith the complexion of wordwide economic crisis occursing on step by step and the financeimpact getting more and more obvious among countries ,the level of the RMB exchange rate inour country has become a main core economic variation that the area of theorities fromcountries ,industries, government and inland public concern about severely.Therefore,Not only bea sound standard of RMB exchange rate helpful to economy and business transaction between ourcountry and other countries,but also generate important significances that keep our economydeveloping chronically,stably,constantly and effectively.Especally since the new century Chineseeconomy has always been rising rapidly, meanwhile the stressure that the countries headed byAmerica request for appreciating RMB is more and more intense ,China S exchange rate has beena development pathway later on.But as a link of conversation between China and the world,thealteration level of exchange rate will significantly influences on domestic macro-economiy.Themain aim to develop Chinese macro-economy is maintainning the price,adding socialcareer,keeping the balance of international payments .Althouh among these goals promoting theeconomy increasing is the most important,only can complete it depends on the rest of threegoals.So during the time of deepening opening up continually,holding the standard ofprice,Increasing the employment and maintaining the balance of international payments wouldbecome more complex.For finishing the three macro-economic goals supports the equal ofChinese economy and outside one.In the progression of accomplishing internal and externalbalance,the exchange rate refered to the core economic variable quantity is essential for them.
With the trends of globalization deepening,China’S policy about the exchange rate need tochange as the variation of the Chinese and world’economy developing.Because the formermonetary policy and institution has never been suitable for the developing case of Chineceeconomy today.So we resetted a great reform of the regime on exchange rate in order to make ourcountry’s fluctuate economic syetem better. This reform alter the determitive institution in ourcountry and improve the float,which makes Chinese exchange rate deepen gradually ourregulation of major macro-economy,so it is the research on exchange rate that the influence onmain economic indexes in Chinese macro-control is putted on the important and outstandingposition.
We study the relation between the exchange rate and the influence on major macro-economyindex on the basis of the three steady connections between exchange and price, full employmentand balance of income and outcome.Studying the feature and regular pattern of exchange rate is indeed in detail before discussing their connections.Firstly,in accordance of the reform aboutexchange rate since 2005,the monthly data of Real Effective Exchange Rate(REER) from 1994 to2010 is measured according to institution and policy of rate of exchange nowadays,in China,theREER is able to weigh the over real value and its contrast.We should adopt the total trade sum thatincludes the trade amount of China and the main trade partner is adopted to measure its foreigncurrency that forms weght in our exchange of RMB,and the RMB exchange rate which ismeasured dymatically would reflect the real value of RMB,.Therefore,it owns importantreferences and mirror as regard to the major economic items of macro-economy which is regulatedby the level of exchange rate.
The authentic exchange rate value shows the real effective value which owns the feature ofprice because of valuing foreign currency ,and as an economic variation which owns character ofprice,the REER decides the wave of itself and has a way to be incline to balance.So only keepingChinese exchange rate in a reasonable and managed range during the business moving can weensure a steady progress of economy.There is an explicit analysis and comprehensiveconsideration on the REER of RMB whose short term or long term equalization and imbalancein the light of theory of balancing real exchange rate along with monthly data of REER that iscalculated from 1994 to 2010.We are able to discuss on the influence on the relation betweenresearching on the REER and major macro economic index.In China, during the time of the floatof exchange rate and other economic variation that is impacted,it is critical to grasp exchangeinteracting with the transportion of other economic variation more exactly for providing the policyof macro economic control wth elementary theoretical bases of regulation and practicalexperience.
According to the goal which is achieved through daring to regulate the motion ofmacco economy by our government.in the following sections,We may study the exchange rateand its impact on them to finish the main aims of macro control to some the standard ofprice,increasing careers and the balance of international income.
One of the key aims is stabilizing the price level, as a foreign currency value which weighsdomestic money ,the wave of REER must impact on the main economic variation of the pricelevel finally through the effect of economy conduction.The price indexes of input and output aremain factors which measure the price level of China.The variation of these two indexes willdirectly influence on the transformation of the whole country’s price level,so it is necessary toestablish theoretical model of price standard and REER as well as select the correspondentinfluential variation of economy factor for analyzing the influence on our price level,which issupported by elementary theory of opening economy about macro-economy.
Employment is a basement of benefitting the people,and is a basic condition and radicalpathway which improve the living standard of public.There are a series of aspects such as theprofits of people ,the situation of stable reform,as well as the great achievement of totallyconstructing well-to-do society being correlating with the situation of employment.Nowadays,the employment situation of our country is rather stern,on the one hand,there are plenties of remaininglabor force in our country,and these people transferred from villages to cities.As the improvrmentof agriculture productivity,on the other hand,the number of recent structure of industry absorbingthe labor force is limited,therefore,the imbalance between labor force supply and demond wouldlead our situation of employment to pessimism.We should set a general calculated balanced modelwhich is suitable for Chinese macro-developing cases and ought to analyse the variation of REERinfluencing on the first ,the second and the third industry,which offers references about the policiesto the macro-control aims that are finished by the variation of exchange rate adding working torelieve severe situation of getting jobs.
The income and expenditure of internation is a property metastasis which is expressed bymonetary or currency receipts and payment resulted from dealings among countries.Two mainfactors which affected the receipts and payment of internation from opening countries are thestates about input-output trade and inflow and outflow capital,while the exchange rate is regardedas a main media of an account of international income and payment.The variation of REER willgenerate an important effect on the balance of trade and capital flow in China.After summarizingthe relevant theory of international balance of payment,in China,the real effective exchange rate ismade a positive analysis in terms of the Balance of Trade and Foreign DirectInvestment,separately,the effect on the balance of trade from the REER is analysed mainly throughthe application of Vector Error Correction Modle(VECM),while analyzing the impact on ForeignDirect Investment from REER is screened by the international panel data.
随着世界经济一体化趋势的不断深化，我国的汇率制度以及汇率政策也要随着我国经济的发展和世界经济的发展而变化，先前的汇率制度以及汇率政策已经不适合我国现在经济的发展状况。因此，我国在2005年重新启动一次汇率体制改革，其实质上是为了完善我国有管理的浮动汇率制度上而做出重要调整。我国这次汇率体制的改革改变了我国汇率的决定机制以及增加了汇率的波动性，由参考一篮子货币的汇率使我国的人民币实际有效汇率在宏观经济的运行当中凸现出来，我国人民币实际有效汇率对我国宏观经济调节力度逐步深化，因此研究我国人民币实际有效汇率对我国宏观调控主要经济变量的影响摆在了更加突出与重要的位置上。
研究我国人民币实际有效汇率与我国主要宏观经济变量的影响关系也就体现在三个主要方面，即人民币实际有汇率与物价水平的关系、人民币实际有效汇率与充分就业的关系、人民币实际有效汇率与贸易收支的关系以及人民币实际有效汇率与外国直接投资的关系来实证研究。在实证研究人民币实际有效汇率与这三者关系之前，详细地研究了汇率本身的决定机制和运行规律。首先，根据我国在2005年汇率改革的基础上，依据现行的汇率制度和汇率政策对我国1994到2010年的人民币实际有效汇率的月度数据进行度量，我国人民币实际有效汇率能够真实的度量我国人民币的实际价值以及外币对比关系，采用我国与主要的贸易伙伴国之间变化的贸易量占我国总贸易的份额来衡量其外币在我国人民币实际有效汇率形成的权重，这种以动态变化度量的人民币实际有效汇率对我国利用汇率水平来调节宏观经济中的主要经济变量具有重要的参考价值和借鉴意义。
人民币实际有效汇率作为汇率真实价值的体现，其本质是度量外币的价值而具有价格的特征，作为具有价格特性的经济变量就决定了人民币实际有效汇率本身具有波动性，并在长期内有趋于均衡的目标路径，因此要保持我国人民币汇率在经济运行中处于合理和可控的范围，才能保证我国经济高效平稳发展。综合考虑以均衡实际汇率理论的基础上，以实际测算的我国1994-2010年的人民币实际有效汇率的月度数据为基础，对我国的人民币实际有效汇率的短期均衡与失调以及人民币实际有效汇率的长期均衡与失调情况进行了详细分析。在充分的了解人民币实际有效汇率自身波动性和失调性的基础上，才能更切合实际的研究人民币实际有效汇率与我国主要宏观经济变量的影响作用关系。在我国汇率自身的波动以及汇率对其他经济变量的影响中，能更加准确的把握我国人民币汇率对各个经济变量的传递影响关系，为我国制定宏观经济调控政策和调节手段提供基本的理论依据和实证检验。
物价水平的稳定是我国宏观调控的关键性目标之一，人民币实际有效汇率作为衡量本国货币的外币真实价值，其汇率自身的波动一定会经过传导作用最终作用于经济运行中价格水平这个主要的经济变量。衡量我国价格水平的主要价格指数是进口价格指数和消费者价格指数，这两个指数的变化直接影响着我国整体价格水平的变动。因此根据开放经济宏观经济学的基本理论，建立人民币实际有效汇率与价格水平的理论模型，从模型中选取主要的影响经济因素变量来分析人民币实际有效汇率对我国物价水平的影响。
就业是我国利民之本，是人民群众改善生活的基本前提和根本途径。我国就业状况切实关系到人民的切身利益，关系到改革发展稳定的全局，关系到我国全面建设小康社会的宏伟目标实现。我国的就业形势目前十分严峻，主要表现在一方面我国现在存在大量剩余劳动力的，随着农业生产力的提高大量闲置农村劳动力从农村转移到城市，另一方面我国目前的产业结构吸纳劳动力的数量有限，劳动力需求和供给的失衡导致我国的就业形势不容乐观。通过建立适合我国宏观经济发展形势的一般可计算均衡模型，分析了我国人民币实际有效汇率的变动对我国产业结构中的第一产业、第二产业以及第三产业劳动就业的影响，进而为我国通过人民币汇率变动实现增加就业缓解严峻就业形势，最终实现我国宏观调控目标提供政策性的模拟分析。
国际收支是国与国因经济贸易交易而引起的货币收付或以货币表示的财产转移。影响开放国家国际收支的两个主要因素是进出口贸易状况和资本流动状况，而汇率作为国际收支账户活动的主要交换媒介，人民币实际有效汇率的变动将对我国的贸易收支和资本流动有着重要影响作用。在总结和归纳国际收支相关理论后，结合我国贸易收支和外国直接投资的主要特征和表现，对我国人民币实际有效汇率对我国贸易收支和外国直接投资进行实证分析，在分析人民币实际有效汇率对贸易收支的影响主要应用向量误差修正模型（VEC），而在分析我国人民币实际有效汇率对外国直接投资的影响，主要采用国际面板数据对我国人民币实际有效汇率对外国直接投资的影响进行实证检验。
With the situation of economy opening up and the amount of it increasing up gradually,andwith the complexion of wordwide economic crisis occursing on step by step and the financeimpact getting more and more obvious among countries ,the level of the RMB exchange rate inour country has become a main core economic variation that the area of theorities fromcountries ,industries, government and inland public concern about severely.Therefore,Not only bea sound standard of RMB exchange rate helpful to economy and business transaction between ourcountry and other countries,but also generate important significances that keep our economydeveloping chronically,stably,constantly and effectively.Especally since the new century Chineseeconomy has always been rising rapidly, meanwhile the stressure that the countries headed byAmerica request for appreciating RMB is more and more intense ,China S exchange rate has beena development pathway later on.But as a link of conversation between China and the world,thealteration level of exchange rate will significantly influences on domestic macro-economiy.Themain aim to develop Chinese macro-economy is maintainning the price,adding socialcareer,keeping the balance of international payments .Althouh among these goals promoting theeconomy increasing is the most important,only can complete it depends on the rest of threegoals.So during the time of deepening opening up continually,holding the standard ofprice,Increasing the employment and maintaining the balance of international payments wouldbecome more complex.For finishing the three macro-economic goals supports the equal ofChinese economy and outside one.In the progression of accomplishing internal and externalbalance,the exchange rate refered to the core economic variable quantity is essential for them.
With the trends of globalization deepening,China’S policy about the exchange rate need tochange as the variation of the Chinese and world’economy developing.Because the formermonetary policy and institution has never been suitable for the developing case of Chineceeconomy today.So we resetted a great reform of the regime on exchange rate in order to make ourcountry’s fluctuate economic syetem better. This reform alter the determitive institution in ourcountry and improve the float,which makes Chinese exchange rate deepen gradually ourregulation of major macro-economy,so it is the research on exchange rate that the influence onmain economic indexes in Chinese macro-control is putted on the important and outstandingposition.
We study the relation between the exchange rate and the influence on major macro-economyindex on the basis of the three steady connections between exchange and price, full employmentand balance of income and outcome.Studying the feature and regular pattern of exchange rate is indeed in detail before discussing their connections.Firstly,in accordance of the reform aboutexchange rate since 2005,the monthly data of Real Effective Exchange Rate(REER) from 1994 to2010 is measured according to institution and policy of rate of exchange nowadays,in China,theREER is able to weigh the over real value and its contrast.We should adopt the total trade sum thatincludes the trade amount of China and the main trade partner is adopted to measure its foreigncurrency that forms weght in our exchange of RMB,and the RMB exchange rate which ismeasured dymatically would reflect the real value of RMB,.Therefore,it owns importantreferences and mirror as regard to the major economic items of macro-economy which is regulatedby the level of exchange rate.
The authentic exchange rate value shows the real effective value which owns the feature ofprice because of valuing foreign currency ,and as an economic variation which owns character ofprice,the REER decides the wave of itself and has a way to be incline to balance.So only keepingChinese exchange rate in a reasonable and managed range during the business moving can weensure a steady progress of economy.There is an explicit analysis and comprehensiveconsideration on the REER of RMB whose short term or long term equalization and imbalancein the light of theory of balancing real exchange rate along with monthly data of REER that iscalculated from 1994 to 2010.We are able to discuss on the influence on the relation betweenresearching on the REER and major macro economic index.In China, during the time of the floatof exchange rate and other economic variation that is impacted,it is critical to grasp exchangeinteracting with the transportion of other economic variation more exactly for providing the policyof macro economic control wth elementary theoretical bases of regulation and practicalexperience.
According to the goal which is achieved through daring to regulate the motion ofmacco economy by our government.in the following sections,We may study the exchange rateand its impact on them to finish the main aims of macro control to some the standard ofprice,increasing careers and the balance of international income.
One of the key aims is stabilizing the price level, as a foreign currency value which weighsdomestic money ,the wave of REER must impact on the main economic variation of the pricelevel finally through the effect of economy conduction.The price indexes of input and output aremain factors which measure the price level of China.The variation of these two indexes willdirectly influence on the transformation of the whole country’s price level,so it is necessary toestablish theoretical model of price standard and REER as well as select the correspondentinfluential variation of economy factor for analyzing the influence on our price level,which issupported by elementary theory of opening economy about macro-economy.
Employment is a basement of benefitting the people,and is a basic condition and radicalpathway which improve the living standard of public.There are a series of aspects such as theprofits of people ,the situation of stable reform,as well as the great achievement of totallyconstructing well-to-do society being correlating with the situation of employment.Nowadays,the employment situation of our country is rather stern,on the one hand,there are plenties of remaininglabor force in our country,and these people transferred from villages to cities.As the improvrmentof agriculture productivity,on the other hand,the number of recent structure of industry absorbingthe labor force is limited,therefore,the imbalance between labor force supply and demond wouldlead our situation of employment to pessimism.We should set a general calculated balanced modelwhich is suitable for Chinese macro-developing cases and ought to analyse the variation of REERinfluencing on the first ,the second and the third industry,which offers references about the policiesto the macro-control aims that are finished by the variation of exchange rate adding working torelieve severe situation of getting jobs.
The income and expenditure of internation is a property metastasis which is expressed bymonetary or currency receipts and payment resulted from dealings among countries.Two mainfactors which affected the receipts and payment of internation from opening countries are thestates about input-output trade and inflow and outflow capital,while the exchange rate is regardedas a main media of an account of international income and payment.The variation of REER willgenerate an important effect on the balance of trade and capital flow in China.After summarizingthe relevant theory of international balance of payment,in China,the real effective exchange rate ismade a positive analysis in terms of the Balance of Trade and Foreign DirectInvestment,separately,the effect on the balance of trade from the REER is analysed mainly throughthe application of Vector Error Correction Modle(VECM),while analyzing the impact on ForeignDirect Investment from REER is screened by the international panel data.
引文
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