试论人民币升值对外商对华直接投资的影响
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摘要
2005年7月中国人民银行宣布改变人民币汇率形成机制,自此人民币开始显著、持续升值,根据国际投资理论,一国汇率水平会对外资进入产生影响,中国是世界引进外资大国,我们有必要深入研究人民币升值究竟会对外商对华直接投资产生什么影响。
国外学者一般认为,一国货币贬值具有促进外资流入的作用,而升值则相反。国内学者就我国情况进行了研究,结论却大相径庭。本文在将外商对华直接投资分成中国市场投资型外资与非中国市场投资型外资的基础上,就人民币升值对外商对华直接投资数量的影响进行了重新分析,并首次分析了人民币升值对外商对华直接投资质量产生的影响,从而得出新的结论和对策建议。论文在第一章对国内外相关研究进行了综述和评价。第二章分析了汇率影响外资流动的机制,包括财富效应、生产成本效应、资本化率、进出口效应和心里预期等。第三章详细分析了我国汇率特点,得出人民币将长期、持续升值的结论;同时就外商对华直接投资特点进行了专门分析:中国市场投资型外资以占领中国市场、规避贸易壁垒为主要目的,产品主要在中国国内销售,项目规模大,技术水平高;非中国市场投资型外资主要目的是利用中国廉价劳动力和其它资源,产品主要用于出口,多属于劳动密集型投资项目,规模普遍较小。这为分析人民币升值对这两种不同特点的外资产生不同的影响打下基础。第四章具体分析人民币升值对这两类外资的影响:对中国市场投资型外资,人民币升值能够降低这类外企在华生产成本,提高经营业绩;能够通过汇率折算提高外企汇回利润的外币价值,提高公司资产以外币衡量的价值;人民币升值的心里预期能够促进外商对华投资;人民币升值虽然会提高以外币衡量的劳动力成本和出口价格,但由于劳动力成本在这类企业的产品成本中只占很小比例,并且出口较少,所以对外企的影响很小,因此,人民币升值在一定条件下能够促进这类外资流入。对非中国市场投资型外资,人民币升值会使得该类外企出口下降,但这类企业产品的价格弹性较小,出口下降的幅度有限;由于人民币升值会影响这类企业出口,影响其经营业绩,对这类企业投资信心产生不利影响;人民币升值后,能够通过汇率折算提高外企汇回利润的外币价值,提高以外币衡量的公司资产价值;预期到人民币进一步升值时,从保值增值角度考虑,外商将加速对华投资;从经营业绩角度考虑,将减少投资,人民币升值总体上不利于这类外资流入。非中国市场投资型外资流入的减少对我国是有利的,我国目前不缺乏资金,缺乏的是高新技术和经营管理经验,而这种外资在我国利用的外资中占比太高,造成我国产业结构失衡,技术水平提高缓慢。人民币升值能够促使外商投资的产业结构趋向合理化,使外资来源结构更为合理,从而促进在华外资企业技术层次提升。
基于人民币升值对外商对华直接投资的上述影响,我们应坚持人民币升值不动摇,同时要加强外资监管,严防投机资本扰乱我国金融秩序,要采取积极的财政政策,拉动消费。我们今后应更为关注引资质量,优化国内投资环境,吸引高质量外资进入。
The People’s Bank of China announced to transform the exchange rate-forming mechanism of RMB on July 21 of 2005. From that time, RMB began to appreciate remarkably and constantly. According to international investment theory, exchange rate level will influence FDI. China is a large host country of FDI in the world, we have necessity to study deeply the influence of RMB appreciation on Chinese inward FDI.
Foreign scholars commonly consider the devaluation of one currency will promote FDI, and appreciation of one currency will have opposite effect. Our scholars studied facts in China, but the conclusions are quite different. This paper analyzes again the influence of RMB appreciating on FDI quantity on the basis of classifying the FDI into Chinese-market-seeking type of FDI and non-Chinese-seeking type of FDI, and for the first time analyzes the influence of RMB appreciating on FDI quality, thereby I draw a new conclusion and make new countermeasures. The first chapter sums up and comments on the related studies domestically and abroad. The second chapter analyses the mechanisms of exchange rate influencing foreign capital flow, including wealth effect, production cost effect, capitalization rate, import and export effect, expectation effect. The third chapter analyses RMB exchange rate features, and draws a conclusion: RMB will appreciate constantly in the long run. This chapter also analyses the features of FDI in China, the main purpose of Chinese-market-seeking type of FDI is to evade trade barrier and occupy Chinese market. Products manufactured by this type of FDI are mainly sold in China, their projects scale are large, their technique is advanced. The main purpose of non-Chinese-market-seeking type of FDI is using Chinese cheap labor resources and other resources, their products are labor intensive and export in large scale, their projects scale are commonly small. This is the foundation for analysing influences of appreciating of RMB on the two type of FDI. The fourth chapter analyses the effects of RMB appreciation on these two type of FDI. For Chinese-market-seeking type of FDI, appreciating of RMB will reduce cost of their production, it also will increase their revenues. When profits are exchanged into foreign currency, they will appreciate at the same rate of RMB appreciating, the enterprise assets will appreciate when it is measured by foreign currency. The expectation of RMB appreciating will promote this type of investors to invest in China, labor cost increasing measured by foreign currency will not restrain FDI, because labor cost only constitute a little proportion in total cost. Since this type of foreign enterprises only export a little, appreciating of RMB influences this type of enterprises slightly. Therefore, appreciating of RMB will promote this type of FDI inflow. For non-Chinese-market-seeking type of FDI, appreciating of RMB will decrease their export, but their products are lack of price-elasticity, so the decreasing extent of export is limited. Appreciating decreases their revenues and weaken investor’s faith in investment. Their profits and enterprise assets will appreciate when they are measured by foreign currency with the appreciating of RMB. When this type investors expect appreciating of RMB, from the point of maintaining value and appreciation, investors will accelerate investing, from the point of revenue, investors will decrease investing. As a whole, appreciating of RMB will decrease this type of FDI inflow. Decrease in non-Chinese- market-seeking type of FDI inflow is favorable for China. For the moment, China is not lack of funds, but China is lack of advanced technique, lack of organization and management knowledge. Non-Chinese-market-seeking type of FDI constitute a big proportion of our inward FDI, this causes imbalance of our industrial structure and causes our technique developing slowly. Appreciating of RMB will lead to appropriate source and industrial structure of FDI, consequently promote foreign enterprises upgrading their technique.
Considering influences of appreciating of RMB on FDI mentioned above, we should appreciate RMB steadily, at the same time, finance supervise section should reinforce supervising and management to prevent speculative capital disturbing finance stability. Government should execute positive fiscal policy for the purpose of promoting consuming. From now on, we should pay more attention to the quality of FDI, optimize domestic invest environment, so that we can attract more high quality FDI.
国外学者一般认为,一国货币贬值具有促进外资流入的作用,而升值则相反。国内学者就我国情况进行了研究,结论却大相径庭。本文在将外商对华直接投资分成中国市场投资型外资与非中国市场投资型外资的基础上,就人民币升值对外商对华直接投资数量的影响进行了重新分析,并首次分析了人民币升值对外商对华直接投资质量产生的影响,从而得出新的结论和对策建议。论文在第一章对国内外相关研究进行了综述和评价。第二章分析了汇率影响外资流动的机制,包括财富效应、生产成本效应、资本化率、进出口效应和心里预期等。第三章详细分析了我国汇率特点,得出人民币将长期、持续升值的结论;同时就外商对华直接投资特点进行了专门分析:中国市场投资型外资以占领中国市场、规避贸易壁垒为主要目的,产品主要在中国国内销售,项目规模大,技术水平高;非中国市场投资型外资主要目的是利用中国廉价劳动力和其它资源,产品主要用于出口,多属于劳动密集型投资项目,规模普遍较小。这为分析人民币升值对这两种不同特点的外资产生不同的影响打下基础。第四章具体分析人民币升值对这两类外资的影响:对中国市场投资型外资,人民币升值能够降低这类外企在华生产成本,提高经营业绩;能够通过汇率折算提高外企汇回利润的外币价值,提高公司资产以外币衡量的价值;人民币升值的心里预期能够促进外商对华投资;人民币升值虽然会提高以外币衡量的劳动力成本和出口价格,但由于劳动力成本在这类企业的产品成本中只占很小比例,并且出口较少,所以对外企的影响很小,因此,人民币升值在一定条件下能够促进这类外资流入。对非中国市场投资型外资,人民币升值会使得该类外企出口下降,但这类企业产品的价格弹性较小,出口下降的幅度有限;由于人民币升值会影响这类企业出口,影响其经营业绩,对这类企业投资信心产生不利影响;人民币升值后,能够通过汇率折算提高外企汇回利润的外币价值,提高以外币衡量的公司资产价值;预期到人民币进一步升值时,从保值增值角度考虑,外商将加速对华投资;从经营业绩角度考虑,将减少投资,人民币升值总体上不利于这类外资流入。非中国市场投资型外资流入的减少对我国是有利的,我国目前不缺乏资金,缺乏的是高新技术和经营管理经验,而这种外资在我国利用的外资中占比太高,造成我国产业结构失衡,技术水平提高缓慢。人民币升值能够促使外商投资的产业结构趋向合理化,使外资来源结构更为合理,从而促进在华外资企业技术层次提升。
基于人民币升值对外商对华直接投资的上述影响,我们应坚持人民币升值不动摇,同时要加强外资监管,严防投机资本扰乱我国金融秩序,要采取积极的财政政策,拉动消费。我们今后应更为关注引资质量,优化国内投资环境,吸引高质量外资进入。
The People’s Bank of China announced to transform the exchange rate-forming mechanism of RMB on July 21 of 2005. From that time, RMB began to appreciate remarkably and constantly. According to international investment theory, exchange rate level will influence FDI. China is a large host country of FDI in the world, we have necessity to study deeply the influence of RMB appreciation on Chinese inward FDI.
Foreign scholars commonly consider the devaluation of one currency will promote FDI, and appreciation of one currency will have opposite effect. Our scholars studied facts in China, but the conclusions are quite different. This paper analyzes again the influence of RMB appreciating on FDI quantity on the basis of classifying the FDI into Chinese-market-seeking type of FDI and non-Chinese-seeking type of FDI, and for the first time analyzes the influence of RMB appreciating on FDI quality, thereby I draw a new conclusion and make new countermeasures. The first chapter sums up and comments on the related studies domestically and abroad. The second chapter analyses the mechanisms of exchange rate influencing foreign capital flow, including wealth effect, production cost effect, capitalization rate, import and export effect, expectation effect. The third chapter analyses RMB exchange rate features, and draws a conclusion: RMB will appreciate constantly in the long run. This chapter also analyses the features of FDI in China, the main purpose of Chinese-market-seeking type of FDI is to evade trade barrier and occupy Chinese market. Products manufactured by this type of FDI are mainly sold in China, their projects scale are large, their technique is advanced. The main purpose of non-Chinese-market-seeking type of FDI is using Chinese cheap labor resources and other resources, their products are labor intensive and export in large scale, their projects scale are commonly small. This is the foundation for analysing influences of appreciating of RMB on the two type of FDI. The fourth chapter analyses the effects of RMB appreciation on these two type of FDI. For Chinese-market-seeking type of FDI, appreciating of RMB will reduce cost of their production, it also will increase their revenues. When profits are exchanged into foreign currency, they will appreciate at the same rate of RMB appreciating, the enterprise assets will appreciate when it is measured by foreign currency. The expectation of RMB appreciating will promote this type of investors to invest in China, labor cost increasing measured by foreign currency will not restrain FDI, because labor cost only constitute a little proportion in total cost. Since this type of foreign enterprises only export a little, appreciating of RMB influences this type of enterprises slightly. Therefore, appreciating of RMB will promote this type of FDI inflow. For non-Chinese-market-seeking type of FDI, appreciating of RMB will decrease their export, but their products are lack of price-elasticity, so the decreasing extent of export is limited. Appreciating decreases their revenues and weaken investor’s faith in investment. Their profits and enterprise assets will appreciate when they are measured by foreign currency with the appreciating of RMB. When this type investors expect appreciating of RMB, from the point of maintaining value and appreciation, investors will accelerate investing, from the point of revenue, investors will decrease investing. As a whole, appreciating of RMB will decrease this type of FDI inflow. Decrease in non-Chinese- market-seeking type of FDI inflow is favorable for China. For the moment, China is not lack of funds, but China is lack of advanced technique, lack of organization and management knowledge. Non-Chinese-market-seeking type of FDI constitute a big proportion of our inward FDI, this causes imbalance of our industrial structure and causes our technique developing slowly. Appreciating of RMB will lead to appropriate source and industrial structure of FDI, consequently promote foreign enterprises upgrading their technique.
Considering influences of appreciating of RMB on FDI mentioned above, we should appreciate RMB steadily, at the same time, finance supervise section should reinforce supervising and management to prevent speculative capital disturbing finance stability. Government should execute positive fiscal policy for the purpose of promoting consuming. From now on, we should pay more attention to the quality of FDI, optimize domestic invest environment, so that we can attract more high quality FDI.
引文
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[2] Cushman D. O. Real Exchange Rate Risk, Expectations and the Level of Direct Investment[J].The Review of Economics and Ststistics,1985,67(2):298-306.
[3] Cushman D. O. Exchange-rate Uncertainty and Foreign Direct Investment in the United States[J].Review of World Economics, 1988,124(2):329-334.
[4] Steven W. Kohlhagen. Exchange Rate Changes, Profitability, and Direct Foreign Investment[J].Southern Economic Journal,1997,44(1):43-52.转引自: 陈阳.基于汇率动因的国际直接投资理论及其实证研究[D].湘潭:湘潭大学商学院,2005:12
[5] Froot Kenneth A. and Stein Jeremy C. Exchange Rates and Foreign Direct Investment: An Imperfect Capital Market Approach[J].Quarterly Journal of Economics, 1991,106(4):1193-1215.
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