考虑消费者有限理性行为的动态定价研究
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摘要
近年来，越来越多的厂商在运营中采用收益管理和动态定价，厂商要成功实施收益管理和动态定价的关键是正确地理解消费者行为。目前国内外学者对于动态定价的研究大都假设消费者是完全理性的（full rational），例如消费者有无限的认知和计算能力来对其购买决策进行完美的优化。然而，现实中面对复杂的市场环境，受心理偏差、认知偏差、计算能力和不完全信息等因素的影响，消费者无法进行完全理性的决策，相反他们通常是在有限理性的（bounded rational）框架下进行购买决策。
决策偏差是一类典型的有限理性行为，它是指个人受自身认知能力限制、心理偏差、情感影响等因素作用而做出偏离完全理性最优决策时所产生的偏差。虽然，动态定价研究和应用中考虑对消费者有限理性行为的建模有着重要的理论意义和现实需求，但是，关于消费者决策偏差有限理性行为下的动态定价研究尚处于起步阶段。本论文提出了消费者决策偏差有限理性行为下的动态定价问题，特别针对消费者惰性（consumer inertia）行为和两阶段选择（two-stage choice）行为下的厂商动态定价问题进行具体深入的研究。
以运筹学、经济学、营销学等多学科交叉理论为基础，采用动态规划、现代启发式算法、数值实验和仿真等方法研究了消费者惰性行为和两阶段选择行为下的动态定价与品类优化问题，分析消费者决策偏差有限理性行为对厂商动态定价的影响，探讨可行的干预策略来缓解消费者惰性行为和两阶段选择行为对厂商定价与品类优化决策的不利影响。综述了消费者行为理论和动态定价建模的研究进展。主要研究工作及成果总结如下：
（1）研究了考虑消费者惰性行为的垄断厂商的单产品动态定价问题。消费者惰性行为是指消费者具有的固有的购买延迟倾向，这种倾向能够使消费者从目标角度看来立即购买是最优选择的情况下，仍然选择等待。构建了考虑消费者惰性行为的垄断厂商多阶段动态定价的动态规划模型，推导了厂商最优定价策略。研究表明：1）消费者惰性行为会损害厂商的预期利润；2）产品的最优价格随着惰性深度（惰性的程度）和惰性宽度（消费者表现出惰性行为的概率）的增加而单调递减；3）数值算例表明惰性深度对最优价格和预期利润的边际效应是递减的，而惰性深度的边际效应是递增的。针对消费者惰性行为的负面影响，给出了一些可行的干预策略。研究成果为厂商认识消费者惰性行为，了解消费者惰性深度和宽度对其预期利润以及最优动态价格的影响提供了理论基础，并为厂商开发和改进其营销策略提供了决策支持。
（2）研究了考虑消费者惰性行为的可替代产品动态定价问题。消费者通常在众多竞争的替代产品之间进行选择。首先，构建了考虑消费者惰性行为的可替代产品动态定价决策模型，然后，在给定初始库存和消费者惰性水平下，推导了厂商最优动态定价策略。研究表明：1）在可替代产品情形下，消费者惰性行为同样对厂商的预期利润具有显著的负面效应；2）消费者惰性行为的惰性深度和惰性宽度两个维度都对每个产品的最优价格产生负面影响；3）消费者惰性行为的边际效应随着惰性深度的增加而降低，随着惰性宽度的增加而增加；4）探讨了不同库存水平下产品之间的最优价格演化模式，论证了在动态替代情形下，每一个产品变量的最优价格不一定随着销售时间的流逝而递减，而且，每一个产品变量的最优价格也不一定随着库存水平的减少而上升。研究成果为可替代产品情形下考虑消费者惰性行为的动态定价策略制定提供了理论依据。
（3）研究了考虑消费者两阶段选择行为的垄断厂商的多阶段动态定价问题。消费者两阶段选择行为是指：由于决策偏差和能力的限制，在产品浏览阶段，消费者首先从可用的产品中挑选一部分产品，形成选择子集，然后在产品购买阶段，消费者从精简的选择子集中购买产品。在网络收益管理框架下，运用动态规划方法构建了考虑消费者两阶段选择行为的可替代产品动态定价决策模型，并且运用非线性规划方法对原问题进行了近似，运用增广的拉格朗日方法得出了静态的最优价格。通过数值算例表明：1）消费者两阶段选择行为损害垄断厂商的预期收益；2）随着初始资源容量水平不足的增加，平均预期收益首先保持稳定，然后显著下降；3）随着初始资源容量水平不足的增加，平均静态最优价格先逐渐上升，然后迅速提升；4）厂商的平均预期收益总是随消费者选择子集大小的增加而增加，且平均预期收益的增加速率单调下降。研究成果为厂商了解两阶段选择行为对厂商预期收益与静态最优价格的影响提供了理论基础，为厂商应对消费者两阶段选择行为产生的负面效应、优化和改进动态定价策略提供了决策支持。
（4）研究了考虑消费者两阶段选择行为的垄断厂商的多阶段动态价格结构与品类优化问题。首先，在网络收益管理框架下，研究了固定价格情形下的考虑消费者两阶段选择行为的品类优化问题，建立了动态规划模型，设计了基于选择的确定性线性规划（choice-based deterministic linearprogramming，CDLP）的近似求解算法，推导了最优的品类组合。然后，进一步拓展模型，研究了考虑消费者两阶段选择行为的联合动态定价结构和品类优化问题，建立了问题的决策优化模型，并设计了有效的求解方法。在固定价格情形下，通过数值算例表明：1）消费者两阶段选择行为损害厂商的平均预期收益；2）厂商的平均预期收益随着选择子集大小的增加而增加；3）厂商提供的产品平均种数与平均总时间均随消费者选择子集大小的增加先增加后减小。研究成果为厂商理解消费者两阶段选择行为对品类优化的影响提供了初步的理论基础，为制定相应的营销策略提供了方向。
本文的主要创新点及贡献可以归纳为以下几个方面：
（1）放松了现有文献中关于考虑两个销售阶段的惰性行为动态定价的假设，分别针对垄断厂商销售单产品和可替代产品的情形，首次将考虑多个销售阶段的消费者惰性行为引入动态规划模型，提出了最优价格的求解方法与最优价格的结构，得出了一系列新的结论，如验证了消费者惰性深度和宽度对厂商预期利润的负面影响，系统地分析了不同库存水平下的最优定价策略、可替代产品的价格演变模式以及产品间最优价格的关系等。
（2）首次在动态定价研究中引入了消费者两阶段选择行为，建立了考虑消费者两阶段选择行为的新的需求模型与动态定价决策模型，并在模型中加入了补偿性的线性启发式规则，考虑了产品属性、消费者偏好和厂商营销策略之间的关系。第一次较全面地分析了消费者两阶段选择行为对厂商预期收益和静态最优价格的影响。
（3）首次把消费者两阶段选择行为引入动态定价结构与品类优化研究中，构建了一个新的考虑消费者两阶段选择行为的动态定价结构与品类优化决策模型，从厂商预期收益和品类优化的角度，第一次较具体地分析了消费者两阶段选择行为的影响。
（4）基于对消费者惰性与两阶段选择行为动态定价及品类优化的分析，结合消费者惰性与两阶段选择行为产生的原因，分别提出了一些新的可操作的营销策略来消除或减缓消费者惰性与两阶段选择行为的不利影响。
Recent years, more and more firms adopt dynamic pricing and revenue management strategy inmarketing and operations management. The key of implementing revenue management and dynamicpricing strategy lies in correctly understanding the consumer behavior. Nowadays, most of the scholarsin the field of revenue management and dynamic pricing assume that consumers are full rational, forexample, consumers have unlimited knowledge and computational abilities to make perfect purchasingdecisions. However, when faced with complicated market environment, and affected by incompleteinformation factors such as, psychological biases, cognitive biases as well as computational abilities,consumers cannot make rational decisions, and they rather make decisions in the framework ofbounded rationality.
Decision bias is a classical bounded rational behavior, and it means the deviations from theoptimal decisions made by full rational behavior due to the factors such as, psychological biases,cognitive biases as well as affection influences. Although it is very important both academically andpractically to investigate the dynamic pricing strategies and its application under consumers’ boundedrational behavior in revenue management, the research on dynamic pricing considering consumerdecision bias bounded rational behavior, is still in its infancy. This dissertation proposes the dynamicpricing problem in the presence of consumers’ decision bias bounded rational behavior, and especiallyfocuses on the dynamic pricing strategies problem faced by firms who consider consumer inertia andconsumer two-stage choice behavior.
This dissertation applies multiple theories such as operations management, economics, marketingscience, and adopts various research methods such as dynamic programming, modern heuristicalgorithms, numerical experiments and simulation to examine the dynamic pricing and assortmentoptimization strategies in the presence of decision biases of bounded rational consumers. The effects ofconsumers’ decision bias bounded rational behavior on firms’ dynamic pricing strategies are analyzed.Some practical marketing strategies are also discussed to mitegate the negative effects generated byconsumer inertia and two-stage choice behavior. The main literatures on consumer behavior theory anddynamic pricing models are reviewed. The literature review covers the following topics, including theconcept and research areas of revenue management, the theory and research method of dynamic pricing,consumers’ behavior theory, consumers’ full rational behavior theory, consumers’ bounded rational behavior theory, the theory and application of consumer inertia and two-stage choice behavior, dynamicpricing of full rational consumers, and dynamic pricing and assortment optimization under consumer’sbounded rational behavior. Future research areas are also proposed regarding the aspects on dynamicpricing and revenue management of bounded rational consumer behavior.The main research work andresults are summarized as below:
（1）A dynamic pricing problem for a monopolist selling single perishable good to consumerswho may be influenced by inertia is studied. Consumer inertia refers to consumers’ inherent tendencyof purchase procrastination and may induce consumers to wait even when immediate purchase isoptimal from an objective perspective. A multiperiod dynamic programming model of a monopolistwho dynamically pricing its products in the presence of consumer inertia is developed and the optimaldynamic pricing policy is also derived. The results show that1）consumer inertia hurts firm’s expectedrevenues;2）the optimal prices are monotonically decreasing in both inertia depth（the extent of inertia）and inertia breadth（the probability with which a consumer exhibits inertial bias）;3）through numericalillustrations, it shows that the marginal effects of inertia depth on optimal prices and expected revenuesare decreasing, whereas the marginal effects of inertia breadth are increasing. Some marketingstrategies are provided to mitigate the negative effects of consumer inertia. This research provides thetheoretical foundation for firms to understand consumers’ inertia behavior, and the effects of consumerinertia depth as well as inertia breadth on its expected revenues and optimal prices. The research alsoprovides decision supports to develop and improve firms’ operational management.
（2）A dynamic pricing problem for substitutable products in the presence of inertial consumers isstudied. Consumers typically choose among a variety of competing substitutes. First, a dynamic pricingdecision model of substitutable products considerting consumer inertia is developed. Then the firm’soptimal prices given initial inventory of substitutable products and consumer inertia are presented.Through numerical illustrations, it is demonstrated that1）under substitutable products’ situation,consumer inertia significantly produce negative effects on firm’s expected revenues;2）the negativeeffect is decreasing as inertia depth increases, and increasing as inertia breadth increases;3）the optimalprices’ evolvement patterns of substitutable products under different inventory levels are also examined，that is，the optimal price of each product variate does not necessarily decreases in time or inventorylevel.This research provides theoretical basis for firms to understand the effects of consumer inertia onthe dynamic pricing strategies of substitutable products.
（3）A multiperiod dynamic pricing problem of a monopolist selling substitutable perishable products to consumers who have two-stage choice behavior is studied. Consumer’s two-stage choicebehavior refers to the phenomenon that due to decision bias and ability limitation, consumers usuallyform a choice set first during the products viewing stage, and then select a product from this simplifiedchoice set. In the framework of network revenue management, a decision model of substitutableproducts considering the two-stage choice behavior is formulated using the finite-horizon dynamicprogramming. It is then approximated as a constrained nonlinear programming problem, and the staticoptimal pricing policy is derived using augmented Lagrange method. Finally, through numericalexperiments, it finds that1）consumers’ two-stage choice behavior hurt retailers’ expected revenues;2）the expected revenues stay stable and then drop significantly as the intial resource capacity scarcitylevel increases;3）the static optimal prices increase gradually first and then pick up quickly as the intialresource capacity scarcity level increases.4）the average expected revenues increase as the size ofchoice set increases, and the increase rates of the average expected revenues are monotically decreasing.This research provides theoretical basis for firms to understand the effects of two-stage choice behavioron retailers’ expected revenues as well as static optimal prices. Furthermore, it provides decisionsupports for firms to cope with the negative effects generated by consumers’ two-stage choice behavior,and it helps firms to optimize as well as improve its’ dynamic pricing policies.
（4）A multiple stage assortment optimization problem faced by a monopoly firm in the presenceof consumers’ two-stage choice behavior is studied. In the framework of revenue management, anassortment optimization model with fixed prices considering consumer’s two-stage choice behavior isfirst proposed, and the choice deterministic linear programming method（CDLP）is designed toapproximate the solution. Furthermore, the maximum expected revenues and the static optimal pricesare derived. Moreover, the above model is expanded to jointly optimize pricing structure andassortment optimization, and its solution is also derived. Through numerical examples, it shows that1）consumers’ two-stage choice behavior hurt firms’ average expected revenues;2）firms’ averageexpected revenues increase as the size of choice set increases;3）the average types of products offerand the average time of products offer first increase and then decrease as the size of choice setincreases. This research provides theoretical foundation for retailers to thoroughly understand theeffects of consumers’ two-stage choice behavior on its expected revenues and optimal productassortments. Also, the research provides directions for making corresponding marketing strategieswhen facing two-stage choice behavior.
Based on the above analysis and discussion, the main innovations and contributions of thisdissertation are summarized as below:
（1）Relax the assumptions of two stage consumer inertia dynamic pricing. Both situations wherea monopolist sells single product and substitutable products are considered, and consumer inertia isincorporated in the mutiperiod dynamic pricing programming models for the first time. Moreover, thestructure properties are analyzed and the optimal dynamic pricing strategies are derived. A series ofnew results are developed. For example, the negative effects of consumer inertia depth and inertiabreadth on firms’ expected profits are verified, as well as the relationship between optimal pricingpolicies under different inventoy levels, the price evolvement patterns of substitutable products and theoptimal prices of different products is systematically analyzed.
（2）By incorporating consumers’ two-stage choice behavior in the context of dynamic pricing forthe first time, a new dynamic pricing model based on two-stage choice demand is constructed. Acompensate linear decision heuristics are incorporated in the model, and the relationship betweenproducts attributes, consumer preferences and marketing strategies are considered. The effects oftwo-stage choice behavior on firms’ expected revenues and static optimal prices are systematicallyinvestigated for the first time.
（3）By incorporating consumers’ two-stage choice behavior in the context of dynamic pricingstructure and assortment optimization for the first time, a dynamic pricing structure and assortmentoptimization model considering two-stage choice behavior is constructed. The effects of two-stagechoice behavior on firms’ expected revenues and optimal assortment selections are systematicallyinvestigated for the first time.
（4）Based on the above theoretical analysis and the causes of consumers’ inertia and two-stagechoice behavior, some new practical marketing strategies to eliminate or mitigate the negative effectsgenerated by these two behaviors are provided.
决策偏差是一类典型的有限理性行为，它是指个人受自身认知能力限制、心理偏差、情感影响等因素作用而做出偏离完全理性最优决策时所产生的偏差。虽然，动态定价研究和应用中考虑对消费者有限理性行为的建模有着重要的理论意义和现实需求，但是，关于消费者决策偏差有限理性行为下的动态定价研究尚处于起步阶段。本论文提出了消费者决策偏差有限理性行为下的动态定价问题，特别针对消费者惰性（consumer inertia）行为和两阶段选择（two-stage choice）行为下的厂商动态定价问题进行具体深入的研究。
以运筹学、经济学、营销学等多学科交叉理论为基础，采用动态规划、现代启发式算法、数值实验和仿真等方法研究了消费者惰性行为和两阶段选择行为下的动态定价与品类优化问题，分析消费者决策偏差有限理性行为对厂商动态定价的影响，探讨可行的干预策略来缓解消费者惰性行为和两阶段选择行为对厂商定价与品类优化决策的不利影响。综述了消费者行为理论和动态定价建模的研究进展。主要研究工作及成果总结如下：
（1）研究了考虑消费者惰性行为的垄断厂商的单产品动态定价问题。消费者惰性行为是指消费者具有的固有的购买延迟倾向，这种倾向能够使消费者从目标角度看来立即购买是最优选择的情况下，仍然选择等待。构建了考虑消费者惰性行为的垄断厂商多阶段动态定价的动态规划模型，推导了厂商最优定价策略。研究表明：1）消费者惰性行为会损害厂商的预期利润；2）产品的最优价格随着惰性深度（惰性的程度）和惰性宽度（消费者表现出惰性行为的概率）的增加而单调递减；3）数值算例表明惰性深度对最优价格和预期利润的边际效应是递减的，而惰性深度的边际效应是递增的。针对消费者惰性行为的负面影响，给出了一些可行的干预策略。研究成果为厂商认识消费者惰性行为，了解消费者惰性深度和宽度对其预期利润以及最优动态价格的影响提供了理论基础，并为厂商开发和改进其营销策略提供了决策支持。
（2）研究了考虑消费者惰性行为的可替代产品动态定价问题。消费者通常在众多竞争的替代产品之间进行选择。首先，构建了考虑消费者惰性行为的可替代产品动态定价决策模型，然后，在给定初始库存和消费者惰性水平下，推导了厂商最优动态定价策略。研究表明：1）在可替代产品情形下，消费者惰性行为同样对厂商的预期利润具有显著的负面效应；2）消费者惰性行为的惰性深度和惰性宽度两个维度都对每个产品的最优价格产生负面影响；3）消费者惰性行为的边际效应随着惰性深度的增加而降低，随着惰性宽度的增加而增加；4）探讨了不同库存水平下产品之间的最优价格演化模式，论证了在动态替代情形下，每一个产品变量的最优价格不一定随着销售时间的流逝而递减，而且，每一个产品变量的最优价格也不一定随着库存水平的减少而上升。研究成果为可替代产品情形下考虑消费者惰性行为的动态定价策略制定提供了理论依据。
（3）研究了考虑消费者两阶段选择行为的垄断厂商的多阶段动态定价问题。消费者两阶段选择行为是指：由于决策偏差和能力的限制，在产品浏览阶段，消费者首先从可用的产品中挑选一部分产品，形成选择子集，然后在产品购买阶段，消费者从精简的选择子集中购买产品。在网络收益管理框架下，运用动态规划方法构建了考虑消费者两阶段选择行为的可替代产品动态定价决策模型，并且运用非线性规划方法对原问题进行了近似，运用增广的拉格朗日方法得出了静态的最优价格。通过数值算例表明：1）消费者两阶段选择行为损害垄断厂商的预期收益；2）随着初始资源容量水平不足的增加，平均预期收益首先保持稳定，然后显著下降；3）随着初始资源容量水平不足的增加，平均静态最优价格先逐渐上升，然后迅速提升；4）厂商的平均预期收益总是随消费者选择子集大小的增加而增加，且平均预期收益的增加速率单调下降。研究成果为厂商了解两阶段选择行为对厂商预期收益与静态最优价格的影响提供了理论基础，为厂商应对消费者两阶段选择行为产生的负面效应、优化和改进动态定价策略提供了决策支持。
（4）研究了考虑消费者两阶段选择行为的垄断厂商的多阶段动态价格结构与品类优化问题。首先，在网络收益管理框架下，研究了固定价格情形下的考虑消费者两阶段选择行为的品类优化问题，建立了动态规划模型，设计了基于选择的确定性线性规划（choice-based deterministic linearprogramming，CDLP）的近似求解算法，推导了最优的品类组合。然后，进一步拓展模型，研究了考虑消费者两阶段选择行为的联合动态定价结构和品类优化问题，建立了问题的决策优化模型，并设计了有效的求解方法。在固定价格情形下，通过数值算例表明：1）消费者两阶段选择行为损害厂商的平均预期收益；2）厂商的平均预期收益随着选择子集大小的增加而增加；3）厂商提供的产品平均种数与平均总时间均随消费者选择子集大小的增加先增加后减小。研究成果为厂商理解消费者两阶段选择行为对品类优化的影响提供了初步的理论基础，为制定相应的营销策略提供了方向。
本文的主要创新点及贡献可以归纳为以下几个方面：
（1）放松了现有文献中关于考虑两个销售阶段的惰性行为动态定价的假设，分别针对垄断厂商销售单产品和可替代产品的情形，首次将考虑多个销售阶段的消费者惰性行为引入动态规划模型，提出了最优价格的求解方法与最优价格的结构，得出了一系列新的结论，如验证了消费者惰性深度和宽度对厂商预期利润的负面影响，系统地分析了不同库存水平下的最优定价策略、可替代产品的价格演变模式以及产品间最优价格的关系等。
（2）首次在动态定价研究中引入了消费者两阶段选择行为，建立了考虑消费者两阶段选择行为的新的需求模型与动态定价决策模型，并在模型中加入了补偿性的线性启发式规则，考虑了产品属性、消费者偏好和厂商营销策略之间的关系。第一次较全面地分析了消费者两阶段选择行为对厂商预期收益和静态最优价格的影响。
（3）首次把消费者两阶段选择行为引入动态定价结构与品类优化研究中，构建了一个新的考虑消费者两阶段选择行为的动态定价结构与品类优化决策模型，从厂商预期收益和品类优化的角度，第一次较具体地分析了消费者两阶段选择行为的影响。
（4）基于对消费者惰性与两阶段选择行为动态定价及品类优化的分析，结合消费者惰性与两阶段选择行为产生的原因，分别提出了一些新的可操作的营销策略来消除或减缓消费者惰性与两阶段选择行为的不利影响。
Recent years, more and more firms adopt dynamic pricing and revenue management strategy inmarketing and operations management. The key of implementing revenue management and dynamicpricing strategy lies in correctly understanding the consumer behavior. Nowadays, most of the scholarsin the field of revenue management and dynamic pricing assume that consumers are full rational, forexample, consumers have unlimited knowledge and computational abilities to make perfect purchasingdecisions. However, when faced with complicated market environment, and affected by incompleteinformation factors such as, psychological biases, cognitive biases as well as computational abilities,consumers cannot make rational decisions, and they rather make decisions in the framework ofbounded rationality.
Decision bias is a classical bounded rational behavior, and it means the deviations from theoptimal decisions made by full rational behavior due to the factors such as, psychological biases,cognitive biases as well as affection influences. Although it is very important both academically andpractically to investigate the dynamic pricing strategies and its application under consumers’ boundedrational behavior in revenue management, the research on dynamic pricing considering consumerdecision bias bounded rational behavior, is still in its infancy. This dissertation proposes the dynamicpricing problem in the presence of consumers’ decision bias bounded rational behavior, and especiallyfocuses on the dynamic pricing strategies problem faced by firms who consider consumer inertia andconsumer two-stage choice behavior.
This dissertation applies multiple theories such as operations management, economics, marketingscience, and adopts various research methods such as dynamic programming, modern heuristicalgorithms, numerical experiments and simulation to examine the dynamic pricing and assortmentoptimization strategies in the presence of decision biases of bounded rational consumers. The effects ofconsumers’ decision bias bounded rational behavior on firms’ dynamic pricing strategies are analyzed.Some practical marketing strategies are also discussed to mitegate the negative effects generated byconsumer inertia and two-stage choice behavior. The main literatures on consumer behavior theory anddynamic pricing models are reviewed. The literature review covers the following topics, including theconcept and research areas of revenue management, the theory and research method of dynamic pricing,consumers’ behavior theory, consumers’ full rational behavior theory, consumers’ bounded rational behavior theory, the theory and application of consumer inertia and two-stage choice behavior, dynamicpricing of full rational consumers, and dynamic pricing and assortment optimization under consumer’sbounded rational behavior. Future research areas are also proposed regarding the aspects on dynamicpricing and revenue management of bounded rational consumer behavior.The main research work andresults are summarized as below:
（1）A dynamic pricing problem for a monopolist selling single perishable good to consumerswho may be influenced by inertia is studied. Consumer inertia refers to consumers’ inherent tendencyof purchase procrastination and may induce consumers to wait even when immediate purchase isoptimal from an objective perspective. A multiperiod dynamic programming model of a monopolistwho dynamically pricing its products in the presence of consumer inertia is developed and the optimaldynamic pricing policy is also derived. The results show that1）consumer inertia hurts firm’s expectedrevenues;2）the optimal prices are monotonically decreasing in both inertia depth（the extent of inertia）and inertia breadth（the probability with which a consumer exhibits inertial bias）;3）through numericalillustrations, it shows that the marginal effects of inertia depth on optimal prices and expected revenuesare decreasing, whereas the marginal effects of inertia breadth are increasing. Some marketingstrategies are provided to mitigate the negative effects of consumer inertia. This research provides thetheoretical foundation for firms to understand consumers’ inertia behavior, and the effects of consumerinertia depth as well as inertia breadth on its expected revenues and optimal prices. The research alsoprovides decision supports to develop and improve firms’ operational management.
（2）A dynamic pricing problem for substitutable products in the presence of inertial consumers isstudied. Consumers typically choose among a variety of competing substitutes. First, a dynamic pricingdecision model of substitutable products considerting consumer inertia is developed. Then the firm’soptimal prices given initial inventory of substitutable products and consumer inertia are presented.Through numerical illustrations, it is demonstrated that1）under substitutable products’ situation,consumer inertia significantly produce negative effects on firm’s expected revenues;2）the negativeeffect is decreasing as inertia depth increases, and increasing as inertia breadth increases;3）the optimalprices’ evolvement patterns of substitutable products under different inventory levels are also examined，that is，the optimal price of each product variate does not necessarily decreases in time or inventorylevel.This research provides theoretical basis for firms to understand the effects of consumer inertia onthe dynamic pricing strategies of substitutable products.
（3）A multiperiod dynamic pricing problem of a monopolist selling substitutable perishable products to consumers who have two-stage choice behavior is studied. Consumer’s two-stage choicebehavior refers to the phenomenon that due to decision bias and ability limitation, consumers usuallyform a choice set first during the products viewing stage, and then select a product from this simplifiedchoice set. In the framework of network revenue management, a decision model of substitutableproducts considering the two-stage choice behavior is formulated using the finite-horizon dynamicprogramming. It is then approximated as a constrained nonlinear programming problem, and the staticoptimal pricing policy is derived using augmented Lagrange method. Finally, through numericalexperiments, it finds that1）consumers’ two-stage choice behavior hurt retailers’ expected revenues;2）the expected revenues stay stable and then drop significantly as the intial resource capacity scarcitylevel increases;3）the static optimal prices increase gradually first and then pick up quickly as the intialresource capacity scarcity level increases.4）the average expected revenues increase as the size ofchoice set increases, and the increase rates of the average expected revenues are monotically decreasing.This research provides theoretical basis for firms to understand the effects of two-stage choice behavioron retailers’ expected revenues as well as static optimal prices. Furthermore, it provides decisionsupports for firms to cope with the negative effects generated by consumers’ two-stage choice behavior,and it helps firms to optimize as well as improve its’ dynamic pricing policies.
（4）A multiple stage assortment optimization problem faced by a monopoly firm in the presenceof consumers’ two-stage choice behavior is studied. In the framework of revenue management, anassortment optimization model with fixed prices considering consumer’s two-stage choice behavior isfirst proposed, and the choice deterministic linear programming method（CDLP）is designed toapproximate the solution. Furthermore, the maximum expected revenues and the static optimal pricesare derived. Moreover, the above model is expanded to jointly optimize pricing structure andassortment optimization, and its solution is also derived. Through numerical examples, it shows that1）consumers’ two-stage choice behavior hurt firms’ average expected revenues;2）firms’ averageexpected revenues increase as the size of choice set increases;3）the average types of products offerand the average time of products offer first increase and then decrease as the size of choice setincreases. This research provides theoretical foundation for retailers to thoroughly understand theeffects of consumers’ two-stage choice behavior on its expected revenues and optimal productassortments. Also, the research provides directions for making corresponding marketing strategieswhen facing two-stage choice behavior.
Based on the above analysis and discussion, the main innovations and contributions of thisdissertation are summarized as below:
（1）Relax the assumptions of two stage consumer inertia dynamic pricing. Both situations wherea monopolist sells single product and substitutable products are considered, and consumer inertia isincorporated in the mutiperiod dynamic pricing programming models for the first time. Moreover, thestructure properties are analyzed and the optimal dynamic pricing strategies are derived. A series ofnew results are developed. For example, the negative effects of consumer inertia depth and inertiabreadth on firms’ expected profits are verified, as well as the relationship between optimal pricingpolicies under different inventoy levels, the price evolvement patterns of substitutable products and theoptimal prices of different products is systematically analyzed.
（2）By incorporating consumers’ two-stage choice behavior in the context of dynamic pricing forthe first time, a new dynamic pricing model based on two-stage choice demand is constructed. Acompensate linear decision heuristics are incorporated in the model, and the relationship betweenproducts attributes, consumer preferences and marketing strategies are considered. The effects oftwo-stage choice behavior on firms’ expected revenues and static optimal prices are systematicallyinvestigated for the first time.
（3）By incorporating consumers’ two-stage choice behavior in the context of dynamic pricingstructure and assortment optimization for the first time, a dynamic pricing structure and assortmentoptimization model considering two-stage choice behavior is constructed. The effects of two-stagechoice behavior on firms’ expected revenues and optimal assortment selections are systematicallyinvestigated for the first time.
（4）Based on the above theoretical analysis and the causes of consumers’ inertia and two-stagechoice behavior, some new practical marketing strategies to eliminate or mitigate the negative effectsgenerated by these two behaviors are provided.
引文
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