陕西省地区经济增长差距及收敛性研究
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摘要
改革开放以来,陕西经济经历了深刻的经济和社会转型后持续稳定增长,但同时地区经济增长不平衡的深层次矛盾正逐步显露出来,这些矛盾处理得当与否将决定陕西未来的发展进程。为解决这一问题,陕西省政府提出“关中率先发展,陕南突破发展,陕北跨越发展”的平衡增长战略。本文意在现有理论基础之上通过实证分析,为这一问题的最终解决做出贡献。
地区经济增长差距是普遍存在的经济现象,它的研究理论与方法也不断进步,目前不平等指数测度与分解和经济增长收敛理论已成为对地区经济增长差距问题普遍采用的分析理论和研究方法。目前这些理论也被大量运用到中国地区经济增长差距问题的研究中,然而对省份内部的研究,却鲜见这些理论与方法的应用。本文基于这两种方法进行研究,在实证分析时借鉴上述理论的一般范式,建立分析框架时充分吸收现有的研究成果,以期尽可能的解读陕西省地区经济增长差距的演变趋势、结构性原因和影响经济增长收敛的因素。具体的框架结构与研究结论如下所示:
第一章导论。该部分在对国内外地区经济增长差距及收敛研究进行综述的基础上,阐述本研究的背景、思路、方法、目的与意义,并给出了论文的创新点。
第二章地区经济增长差距及收敛的理论基础。该章节分别介绍了目前关于经济增长差距和收敛研究的两个路径的相关理论,为后面经济增长差距的分析与计量做好铺垫。
第三章陕西省地区经济增长的演变格局及影响因素分析。本章在上章的基础上,首先通过描述性统计方法从绝对差距和相对差距的角度对改革开放以来陕西省地区经济增长不平衡的现状及其演变进行系统描述,认为陕西省地区经济增长差距在1978-2005年间经历一个双峰演变,其中峰值分别出现在1987和1999年,而1987-1999年的谷底值出现在1990年;其次本章分析了资源禀赋、政策、人力资本等影响地区经济增长差距的因素,笔者认为影响地区经济增长差距变动的最主要因素为经济改革因素。
第四章陕西省地区经济增长差距的结构性分析。本章运用不平等指数分解的方法对陕西各地区及其农村各地区经济增长差距分别从产业和地区层面做出结构性分解,以探究这种差距演变背后的产业和地区层面的原因,结果如下所示:
(1)陕西省地区经济增长差距在1995-1999年间的增加是第二产业向关中的西安、咸阳和宝鸡等具有传统重工业基础的地区过分集中的结果;而2000-2004年间出现的反常的地区经济增长差距减少的结构性原因是陕北地区能源开采行业的发展减少了地区差距。
(2)农村工业化进程中的时空不平衡性是陕西省农村各地区经济增长差距的主要原因,积极发展落后地区的农村非农产业以减少其在部分地区的过度集中是我们在农村工业化进程中防止农村地区差距过大的切入点。
(3)地区工业化和农村工业化相辅相成。地区工业的发展必然会带动农村工业的进步,同时欠发达地区也能够以农业产业化为突破口,进而以农村工业化带动整个地区工业化。
第五章陕西省地区经济增长的收敛性分析。本章利用改革开放以来的数据对陕西地区经济增长的σ-收敛和β-收敛研究作出经验性分析,结果显示:在1978-2005年间陕西省地级行政区域既不存在σ-收敛也不存在绝对β-收敛;在加入地区虚拟变量后,整体呈现出微弱的发散趋势,这说明陕西省地区经济增长不存在俱乐部收敛的特征,至少不存在以关中、陕南和陕北划分的区域间的俱乐部收敛;分成几个子时期后部分时段显现出显著的绝对β-收敛;进一步加入期初人力资本变量、投资率变量和劳动力增长率变量后,陕西地区经济增长条件收敛显著,其中劳动力增长率和投资率是实现条件收敛的决定条件。
第六章促进陕西地区经济协调增长的政策建议。第六章在前三章实证分析的基础上给陕西省各地区经济增长和协调发展提出简短的政策建议。
Since the reformation and openness, shaanxi province has experienced prominent increase after the reformation of economy and society, but the contradiction of the imbalance in the regional economic growth has appeared step by step at the same time, which will decide the developing process of shaanxi in the future .To solve the problem, shaanxi’s government has proposed the balanced development strategy which has been described as“Guanzhong take the lead, Shaanan break through and Shanbei experice spanning type in the developing process”. This article intended to contribute to the solution of the problem through empirical analysis based on the existing thesis.
Regional disparities are widespread phenomenon in the process of the economic growth, Its theory and research methods are continually achieving new progress. The measurement of inequality coefficient and the application of convergence theory in economic growth has become a common way of regional inequality analysis theory in research, which has been widely-used in the studies of china’s regional imbalance of economic growth. But there is rare application of this theory and methodology in the studies of internal inequalities of the western provinces. The article is based on such ideas and empirical studies using the convergence theory for reference , which tries to find the changing pattern ,structural reason and the accurate factors that affects the economic growth of Shaanxi province .
Chapter One: Introduction. This part elaborates the research’s background, mentality, method, goal and significance based on the domestic and foreign regional disparities, then gives the innovation spots.
Chapter Two: The Academic Foundation of Regional Disparities and Convergence in Economic Growth. This chapter introduced the theories of regional disparities and convergence in economic growth, based on which we will make the analysis and measurement of the regional disparities and convergence.
Chapter Three: The Pattern of Evolution and Influencing Factors of Regional Economic Growth in Shaanxi province. Based on the last chapter, this chapter makes systemic description of the status quo and evolution of the imbalance in economic growth through the point of view of the absolute and relative disparities since the reformation and openness. We regard that Shaanxi’s regional disparities of economic growth has experienced a double- apex change between the periods of 1978 and 2005,in which the peak value appeared in the year 1987 and 1999, and the valley value appeared in the year 1990. Secondly, we consider the influencing factors of Shaanxi’s regional disparities as the gift of resource, policy, human resources, and economic reformation, the most important of which is the economic reformation.
Chapter Four: The Structural Analysis of Shaanxi’s Regional Disparities of Economic Growth. This chapter analyses Shaanxi’s regional disparities of economic growth of regions and rural regions by using the inequality coefficients, and makes a structural decomposition through the point of view of industry to explore the causation. The results are listed as followed:
(1) The increase of the disparities of economic growth in Shaanxi province is the result of that the second industry concentrates excessively into xi’an, xianyang and baoji where there is basis of traditional heavy industry between the period of 1995 and 1999, and the decrease between 2000 and 2004 has been resulted from the development of the energy sources-exploiting industry .
(2) The main causation of the disparities is the spatial-temporal imbalance in the course of rural industrialization, and the method to prevent the excessive disparities is to develop the country non-agriculture industry in the laggard area which will reduce the excessive concentration .
(3) The industrialization and rural industrialization supplement each other in each region. The development of the regional industry will bring the progress of the rural industry consequentially , and the undeveloped areas such as the south of Shaanxi province can make a breakthrough in industrialization by developing agricultural and rural industrialization.
Chapter Five: The Convergence of Economic Growth in Shaanxi Province. The chapter makes an empirical analysis to theσ-convergence andβ-convergence of economic growth in shaanxi province by using the data since the reformation and openness, the results reveal that : there is neitherσ-convergence norβ-convergence in shaanxi province between the period of 1978 and 2005; it shows weak emanative trend after the joining of regional invented variable, which indicates that there is no club convergence in shannxi province ,or at least no club convergence among the regions of Guanzhong, Shannan and Shanbei ; some of the periods of time show prominent absoluteβ-convergence when being divided into several phases; joining the incipient variable of human resource, the rate of investment , the rising rate of work force ,the result of the conditionalβ-convergence is prominent ,of which the rate of investment and the rising rate of work force are the crucial condition .
Chapter Six: The Policy Suggestion for Promoting Economic Growth in a Harmonious Way. Based on the analysis of the previous three chapters, we proposed the brief policy suggestions of Shaanxi’s economic growth and development in a harmonious way.
地区经济增长差距是普遍存在的经济现象,它的研究理论与方法也不断进步,目前不平等指数测度与分解和经济增长收敛理论已成为对地区经济增长差距问题普遍采用的分析理论和研究方法。目前这些理论也被大量运用到中国地区经济增长差距问题的研究中,然而对省份内部的研究,却鲜见这些理论与方法的应用。本文基于这两种方法进行研究,在实证分析时借鉴上述理论的一般范式,建立分析框架时充分吸收现有的研究成果,以期尽可能的解读陕西省地区经济增长差距的演变趋势、结构性原因和影响经济增长收敛的因素。具体的框架结构与研究结论如下所示:
第一章导论。该部分在对国内外地区经济增长差距及收敛研究进行综述的基础上,阐述本研究的背景、思路、方法、目的与意义,并给出了论文的创新点。
第二章地区经济增长差距及收敛的理论基础。该章节分别介绍了目前关于经济增长差距和收敛研究的两个路径的相关理论,为后面经济增长差距的分析与计量做好铺垫。
第三章陕西省地区经济增长的演变格局及影响因素分析。本章在上章的基础上,首先通过描述性统计方法从绝对差距和相对差距的角度对改革开放以来陕西省地区经济增长不平衡的现状及其演变进行系统描述,认为陕西省地区经济增长差距在1978-2005年间经历一个双峰演变,其中峰值分别出现在1987和1999年,而1987-1999年的谷底值出现在1990年;其次本章分析了资源禀赋、政策、人力资本等影响地区经济增长差距的因素,笔者认为影响地区经济增长差距变动的最主要因素为经济改革因素。
第四章陕西省地区经济增长差距的结构性分析。本章运用不平等指数分解的方法对陕西各地区及其农村各地区经济增长差距分别从产业和地区层面做出结构性分解,以探究这种差距演变背后的产业和地区层面的原因,结果如下所示:
(1)陕西省地区经济增长差距在1995-1999年间的增加是第二产业向关中的西安、咸阳和宝鸡等具有传统重工业基础的地区过分集中的结果;而2000-2004年间出现的反常的地区经济增长差距减少的结构性原因是陕北地区能源开采行业的发展减少了地区差距。
(2)农村工业化进程中的时空不平衡性是陕西省农村各地区经济增长差距的主要原因,积极发展落后地区的农村非农产业以减少其在部分地区的过度集中是我们在农村工业化进程中防止农村地区差距过大的切入点。
(3)地区工业化和农村工业化相辅相成。地区工业的发展必然会带动农村工业的进步,同时欠发达地区也能够以农业产业化为突破口,进而以农村工业化带动整个地区工业化。
第五章陕西省地区经济增长的收敛性分析。本章利用改革开放以来的数据对陕西地区经济增长的σ-收敛和β-收敛研究作出经验性分析,结果显示:在1978-2005年间陕西省地级行政区域既不存在σ-收敛也不存在绝对β-收敛;在加入地区虚拟变量后,整体呈现出微弱的发散趋势,这说明陕西省地区经济增长不存在俱乐部收敛的特征,至少不存在以关中、陕南和陕北划分的区域间的俱乐部收敛;分成几个子时期后部分时段显现出显著的绝对β-收敛;进一步加入期初人力资本变量、投资率变量和劳动力增长率变量后,陕西地区经济增长条件收敛显著,其中劳动力增长率和投资率是实现条件收敛的决定条件。
第六章促进陕西地区经济协调增长的政策建议。第六章在前三章实证分析的基础上给陕西省各地区经济增长和协调发展提出简短的政策建议。
Since the reformation and openness, shaanxi province has experienced prominent increase after the reformation of economy and society, but the contradiction of the imbalance in the regional economic growth has appeared step by step at the same time, which will decide the developing process of shaanxi in the future .To solve the problem, shaanxi’s government has proposed the balanced development strategy which has been described as“Guanzhong take the lead, Shaanan break through and Shanbei experice spanning type in the developing process”. This article intended to contribute to the solution of the problem through empirical analysis based on the existing thesis.
Regional disparities are widespread phenomenon in the process of the economic growth, Its theory and research methods are continually achieving new progress. The measurement of inequality coefficient and the application of convergence theory in economic growth has become a common way of regional inequality analysis theory in research, which has been widely-used in the studies of china’s regional imbalance of economic growth. But there is rare application of this theory and methodology in the studies of internal inequalities of the western provinces. The article is based on such ideas and empirical studies using the convergence theory for reference , which tries to find the changing pattern ,structural reason and the accurate factors that affects the economic growth of Shaanxi province .
Chapter One: Introduction. This part elaborates the research’s background, mentality, method, goal and significance based on the domestic and foreign regional disparities, then gives the innovation spots.
Chapter Two: The Academic Foundation of Regional Disparities and Convergence in Economic Growth. This chapter introduced the theories of regional disparities and convergence in economic growth, based on which we will make the analysis and measurement of the regional disparities and convergence.
Chapter Three: The Pattern of Evolution and Influencing Factors of Regional Economic Growth in Shaanxi province. Based on the last chapter, this chapter makes systemic description of the status quo and evolution of the imbalance in economic growth through the point of view of the absolute and relative disparities since the reformation and openness. We regard that Shaanxi’s regional disparities of economic growth has experienced a double- apex change between the periods of 1978 and 2005,in which the peak value appeared in the year 1987 and 1999, and the valley value appeared in the year 1990. Secondly, we consider the influencing factors of Shaanxi’s regional disparities as the gift of resource, policy, human resources, and economic reformation, the most important of which is the economic reformation.
Chapter Four: The Structural Analysis of Shaanxi’s Regional Disparities of Economic Growth. This chapter analyses Shaanxi’s regional disparities of economic growth of regions and rural regions by using the inequality coefficients, and makes a structural decomposition through the point of view of industry to explore the causation. The results are listed as followed:
(1) The increase of the disparities of economic growth in Shaanxi province is the result of that the second industry concentrates excessively into xi’an, xianyang and baoji where there is basis of traditional heavy industry between the period of 1995 and 1999, and the decrease between 2000 and 2004 has been resulted from the development of the energy sources-exploiting industry .
(2) The main causation of the disparities is the spatial-temporal imbalance in the course of rural industrialization, and the method to prevent the excessive disparities is to develop the country non-agriculture industry in the laggard area which will reduce the excessive concentration .
(3) The industrialization and rural industrialization supplement each other in each region. The development of the regional industry will bring the progress of the rural industry consequentially , and the undeveloped areas such as the south of Shaanxi province can make a breakthrough in industrialization by developing agricultural and rural industrialization.
Chapter Five: The Convergence of Economic Growth in Shaanxi Province. The chapter makes an empirical analysis to theσ-convergence andβ-convergence of economic growth in shaanxi province by using the data since the reformation and openness, the results reveal that : there is neitherσ-convergence norβ-convergence in shaanxi province between the period of 1978 and 2005; it shows weak emanative trend after the joining of regional invented variable, which indicates that there is no club convergence in shannxi province ,or at least no club convergence among the regions of Guanzhong, Shannan and Shanbei ; some of the periods of time show prominent absoluteβ-convergence when being divided into several phases; joining the incipient variable of human resource, the rate of investment , the rising rate of work force ,the result of the conditionalβ-convergence is prominent ,of which the rate of investment and the rising rate of work force are the crucial condition .
Chapter Six: The Policy Suggestion for Promoting Economic Growth in a Harmonious Way. Based on the analysis of the previous three chapters, we proposed the brief policy suggestions of Shaanxi’s economic growth and development in a harmonious way.
引文
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