供应链监控仿真系统研究
摘要
随着经济全球化的到来,市场竞争形式中呈现出越来越多的市场需求变化多样性、不确定性因素,这些不确定性因素直接或间接影响到企业的绩效。如何能在供应链运营中及早发现异常,减少不确定性问题的发生,降低企业的风险,成为供应链管理的前提。由于供应链中不确定因素多数来源于供应链中生产流程中的异常和供应链中信息不共享,因此建立一个供应链监控仿真平台,实现供应链的信息共享,在仿真供应链库存策略的同时,注重供应链底层的流程状态及异常情况,实时监看整条链的运营信息,为管理者提供决策服务,具有非常重要的理论和实践意义。
本文首先较为系统而全面的分析了供应链的特征及现状,阐述了供应链管理中的常见库存策略和协调策略,并总结出降低长鞭效应和提升供应链绩效是当今供应链管理及协调的两个重要评价指标。根据供应链仿真的国内外研究现状的不足,在供应链监控系统的需求分析基础上,利用代理人形式,将供应链监控系统及代理人功能进行了分析,并设计了一种协调控制方法,将VMI库存策略与收益共享、数量折扣相结合。最终以IDEF0方法,建立了该供应链监控系统的静态模型,并利用EM-Plant仿真软件按阶层实现了供应链监控仿真系统。
最后以某一条供应链为背景,作为实例验证,通过选择传统的s-Q库存策略、VMI库存策略和结合收益共享与数量折扣的混合VMI库存策略,以长鞭效应、订单满足率、平均持有库存、等待成本率和销售利润作为供应链评价指标,进行仿真实验。证明该系统能够对供应链运营具有监控、评价的作用,也为库存策略优化提出了新的思路。
Along with the arrival of economic globalization, the market competes to present a more and more several of market needs and indetermination factor in the form. These indetermination factor influences the results of business enterprise directly or indirectly. How can discover an abnormality early in the supply chain, reduce the occurrence of problem of the indetermination, lower the risk of business enterprise, become the premise of supply chain management. Because the most indetermination factors coming from the abnormality in the supply chain’s production process and the appearance that the supply chain members doesn't share in the information. Therefore build up a supply chain supervision to imitate true terrace, carry out the information share of supply chain, pay attention to process appearance and excrescent circumstance of supply chain first floor at the time of imitating true supply chain stock strategy, solid hour monitor the luck camp of the whole chain information, provide a decision service for the managers, have count for much theories and practice meaning.
This text compares for the characteristic and present condition of supply chain completely , elaborated a supply chain management in of the familiar stock strategy and coordination strategy harmoniously, and tally up to lower long whip effect with promote supply chain results is a supply chain to management and moderate nowadays of two importance evaluation index sign. According to the shortage of the domestic and international research about supply chain simulation condition, on the foundation of analyze the need of supply chain supervised and controlled system, supply chain supervised and controlled system to carry on structure analysis by agent form, and aimed at the independent behavior of each agent in the system and handed over with each other behavior to do analysis, divide three static state models which built up the supply chain supervised and controlled system by IDEF0 at last and carry out supply chain supervised and controlled system to imitate true circumstance by EM-Plant software.
Finally, the paper selects a case study of a supply chain. On the primes of choosing traditional stock strategy, VMI stock strategy and combined VMI stock strategy which income share and quantity discounts strategy, take the long whip effect, order satisfy rate, equally hold stock and cost for waiting rate and sell profits as a supply chain an evaluation index sign, carry on the simulation system. Certificate that system can supervised and evaluate the supply chain, also put forward new way of optimizing stock strategy.
本文首先较为系统而全面的分析了供应链的特征及现状,阐述了供应链管理中的常见库存策略和协调策略,并总结出降低长鞭效应和提升供应链绩效是当今供应链管理及协调的两个重要评价指标。根据供应链仿真的国内外研究现状的不足,在供应链监控系统的需求分析基础上,利用代理人形式,将供应链监控系统及代理人功能进行了分析,并设计了一种协调控制方法,将VMI库存策略与收益共享、数量折扣相结合。最终以IDEF0方法,建立了该供应链监控系统的静态模型,并利用EM-Plant仿真软件按阶层实现了供应链监控仿真系统。
最后以某一条供应链为背景,作为实例验证,通过选择传统的s-Q库存策略、VMI库存策略和结合收益共享与数量折扣的混合VMI库存策略,以长鞭效应、订单满足率、平均持有库存、等待成本率和销售利润作为供应链评价指标,进行仿真实验。证明该系统能够对供应链运营具有监控、评价的作用,也为库存策略优化提出了新的思路。
Along with the arrival of economic globalization, the market competes to present a more and more several of market needs and indetermination factor in the form. These indetermination factor influences the results of business enterprise directly or indirectly. How can discover an abnormality early in the supply chain, reduce the occurrence of problem of the indetermination, lower the risk of business enterprise, become the premise of supply chain management. Because the most indetermination factors coming from the abnormality in the supply chain’s production process and the appearance that the supply chain members doesn't share in the information. Therefore build up a supply chain supervision to imitate true terrace, carry out the information share of supply chain, pay attention to process appearance and excrescent circumstance of supply chain first floor at the time of imitating true supply chain stock strategy, solid hour monitor the luck camp of the whole chain information, provide a decision service for the managers, have count for much theories and practice meaning.
This text compares for the characteristic and present condition of supply chain completely , elaborated a supply chain management in of the familiar stock strategy and coordination strategy harmoniously, and tally up to lower long whip effect with promote supply chain results is a supply chain to management and moderate nowadays of two importance evaluation index sign. According to the shortage of the domestic and international research about supply chain simulation condition, on the foundation of analyze the need of supply chain supervised and controlled system, supply chain supervised and controlled system to carry on structure analysis by agent form, and aimed at the independent behavior of each agent in the system and handed over with each other behavior to do analysis, divide three static state models which built up the supply chain supervised and controlled system by IDEF0 at last and carry out supply chain supervised and controlled system to imitate true circumstance by EM-Plant software.
Finally, the paper selects a case study of a supply chain. On the primes of choosing traditional stock strategy, VMI stock strategy and combined VMI stock strategy which income share and quantity discounts strategy, take the long whip effect, order satisfy rate, equally hold stock and cost for waiting rate and sell profits as a supply chain an evaluation index sign, carry on the simulation system. Certificate that system can supervised and evaluate the supply chain, also put forward new way of optimizing stock strategy.
引文
[1] LEE L, BILLINGTON C. Managing supply chain inventory: pitfalls and opportunities[J].Sloan Management Review,1993,33(3):65-73.
[2] GERWIN D. Manufacturing flexibility: a strategic perspective[J]. Management Science,1993,39(4):395-410.
[3] FISHER M. What is the right supply chain for your product[J].Harvard Business Review,1997,75(2):105-116.
[4] VICKERY V, ROGER C, Cornelia D. Supply chain flexibility: an empirical study[J].Journal of Supply Chain Management,1999,35(3):16-24.
[5] CHOPRA S, MLEINDL P. Supply chain management: strategy planning and operation[M].Prentice-Hall,2001:435-440.
[6] DAVID L, PHILIP K, EDITH L. Designing and managing the supply chain: concepts, strategies and case study[M].New York: New York McGraw-Hill, 2001:178-191.
[7] NOVACK A, SIMCO W. The industrial procurement process: a supply chain perspective[J].Journal of Business Logistics,1991,12(1):145-167.
[8] KOTTEAKU G, LAIOS G, MOSCHURISO J. The influence of product complexity on the purchasing structure[J].International Journal of Management Science,1995,23(1):27-39.
[9] SUBRAMANIAM C, SHAW M. A study of the value and the impact of b2b e-commerce: the case of web-based procurement[J].International Journal of Electronic Commerce,2002,6(4):19-40.
[10] CALINESCU A, EFSTATHIOU J, SCHIM J. Applying and assessing two methods for measuring complexity in manufacturing[J].The Journal of the Operational Research Society,1998,49(3):723-733.
[11] KHURANA A. Managing complex production processes[J].Sloan Management Review,1999,40(2):85-97.
[12] LEE Zhu, SOH C. FMS job-shop scheduling under disruptions with consideration of time and sequence deviation[C].IEEE International Symposium on Intelligent Control/Intelligent Systems and Semiotics,1999: 138-143.
[13] DOUGLAS J, THOMAS Paul, GRINFFIN M. Coordinated supply chain management[J].European Journal of Operational Research,1996,(94):1-15.
[14]王成恩.供应链中物流及信息流管理[J].中国管理科学,2000:16-23.
[15] DISNEY S M, TOWILL D R. A procedure for the optimization of the dynamic response of a vendor managed inventory system[J].Computers and Industrial Engineering,2002,43(7):27-58.
[16]仝凌云,陈增强,袁著祉.供应商管理库存中的一种供需问题及优化模[J].系统工程,2004,(9):1463-1484.
[17]马德良,张家钰.VMI系统下一个物流成本控制优化模型的建立[J].东华大学学报,2003,29(6):35-38.
[18] SILA Cetinkaya, LEE Chung Yee. Stock replenishment and shipment scheduling for vendor managed inventory systems[J].Management Science, 2000,46(2):217-232.
[19] SEVEN Axsater. A note on stock replenishment and shipment scheduling for vendor managed inventory systems[J].Management Science,2001,47(9): 1306-1310.
[20] YAN D, XU K F. A supply chain model of vendor managed inventory[J]. Logistics and Transportation Review,2002,38(2):75-95.
[21]蔡建湖,黄卫来,周根贵.基于收益分享契约的VMI模型研究[J].中国管理科学,2006,14(4):108-113.
[22]杨泽涛,海峰.VMI虚拟团队运作及其工作流管理[J].学技术管理,2001,2(10):81-85.
[23]吴文祥.VMI供应链系统的经济效果评价研究[J].应用研究,2003,15(6):55-58.
[24]徐文亮,徐青川,乔卓.VMI下的供应链库存系统分析[J].管理现代化,2002,(11):18-19.
[25]许星剑,陈颖.采用供应商库存管理(VMI)的短期内供应链绩效评价[J].中国管理科学,2004,(4):182-184.
[26]刘丽文,袁佳瑞.VMI环境下的库存与发货模型研究[J].中国管理科学,2003,(5):31-36.
[27]何俊,赵正佳.供应链协调机制与契约分析[J].物流科技,2006,(6):130-132.
[28]何勇,杨德礼,张醒洲.需求与价格具有相关性下的退货政策模型研究[J].系统工程,2004,22(9):27-31.
[29]姚忠.退货策略在单周期产品供应链管理中的作用[J].工程理论与实践,2003,23(6):69-71.
[30] DANA J, SPIER K. Revenue sharing and vertical control in the video rental industry[J].The Journal of Industrial Economics,2001,49(3):223-245.
[31] PASTERNACK B. Using revenue sharing to achieve channel coordination for a newsboy type inventory model[Z].California State University Working Paper,Fullerton,1999:201-230.
[32] CACHON G, LARIVIERE M. Supply chain coordination with revenue-sharing contracts: strengths and limitations[J].Management Science, 2005,51(1):30-44.
[33] GERCHAK Y, WANG Y. Revenue-sharing vs. wholesale-price contracts in assembly systems with random demand[R].Department of Management Sciences,University of Waterloo,2000:175-190.
[34]柳键,马士华.供应链合作及其契约研究[J].管理工程学,2004(1):85-87.
[35] KEVIN Weng. Channel coordination and quantity discounts[J].Management Science,1995,41(9):1509-1522.
[36]赵晗萍,冯允成,姚李刚.目标数量折扣下的供应链协调分析[J].系统工程,2005,23(8):51-52.
[37]关志民,徐慧,马钦海.联合协调下分销系统价格折扣问题研究[J].东北大学学报,2004,25(4):402-405.
[38]马祖军.供应链中供需协调及数量折扣定价模型[J].西南交通大学学报,2004,39(2):185-186.
[39]马士华,林勇,陈志祥.供应链管理[M].北京:机械工业出版社,2000:40-45.
[40]柴跃廷,刘义.敏捷供需链管理[M].北京:清华大学出版社, 2001:54-59.
[41] CHAOUCH Ben A. Stock levels and delivery pates in vendor managed inventory programs[J].Production and Operations Management,2001,10(1): 31-44.
[42] LEE H, PADMANABHAN P, WHANG S. The bullwhip effect in supply chains[J].Sloan Management Review,1997,38(3):93-102.
[43] ANDRES Angulo, NACHTMANN Heather, WALLER Matthew A. Supply chain information sharing in a vendor managed inventory partnership[J]. Business Logistics,2004,25(1):101-120.
[44] GRADY M W. Performance measurement: implementing strategy[J]. Management Accounting,1991,2(5):49-53.
[45] DISNEY S M, TOWILL D R. The effect of vendor managed inventory dynamics on the bullwhip effect in supply chain[J].International Journal of Production Economics,2003,85(2):199-215.
[46] MUSALEM E P, DEKKER R. Controlling inventories in a supply chain: a case study[J].International Journal of Production Economics,2005,93294(1): 179-188.
[47]马俊,孙小明.基于Petri网的生产系统仿真研究[J].起重运输机械,2004,31(4):33-36.
[48] LIN Furen, WOO Tan Gek, SHAW M J. Modeling supply chain networks by a multi-agent system[C].Proceedings of the Thirty-First Hawaii International Conference,1998:105-114.
[49]陈剑,陆今芳.多智能自主体企业供应链系统的构建及激励机制研究[J].系统工程理论与实践,2000,(7):1-9.
[50] KUBOTA F, SATO S, NAKANO M. Enterprise modeling and simulation platform integrating manufacturing system design and supply chain[C].IEEE International Conference,1999:511-515.
[51] DONG Wenyi, SOUNG Hie Kim, NAK Hyun Kim. Combined modeling with multi-agent systems and simulation: it’s application to harbor supply chain management[C].Proceedings of the 35th Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences,2002:86-92.
[2] GERWIN D. Manufacturing flexibility: a strategic perspective[J]. Management Science,1993,39(4):395-410.
[3] FISHER M. What is the right supply chain for your product[J].Harvard Business Review,1997,75(2):105-116.
[4] VICKERY V, ROGER C, Cornelia D. Supply chain flexibility: an empirical study[J].Journal of Supply Chain Management,1999,35(3):16-24.
[5] CHOPRA S, MLEINDL P. Supply chain management: strategy planning and operation[M].Prentice-Hall,2001:435-440.
[6] DAVID L, PHILIP K, EDITH L. Designing and managing the supply chain: concepts, strategies and case study[M].New York: New York McGraw-Hill, 2001:178-191.
[7] NOVACK A, SIMCO W. The industrial procurement process: a supply chain perspective[J].Journal of Business Logistics,1991,12(1):145-167.
[8] KOTTEAKU G, LAIOS G, MOSCHURISO J. The influence of product complexity on the purchasing structure[J].International Journal of Management Science,1995,23(1):27-39.
[9] SUBRAMANIAM C, SHAW M. A study of the value and the impact of b2b e-commerce: the case of web-based procurement[J].International Journal of Electronic Commerce,2002,6(4):19-40.
[10] CALINESCU A, EFSTATHIOU J, SCHIM J. Applying and assessing two methods for measuring complexity in manufacturing[J].The Journal of the Operational Research Society,1998,49(3):723-733.
[11] KHURANA A. Managing complex production processes[J].Sloan Management Review,1999,40(2):85-97.
[12] LEE Zhu, SOH C. FMS job-shop scheduling under disruptions with consideration of time and sequence deviation[C].IEEE International Symposium on Intelligent Control/Intelligent Systems and Semiotics,1999: 138-143.
[13] DOUGLAS J, THOMAS Paul, GRINFFIN M. Coordinated supply chain management[J].European Journal of Operational Research,1996,(94):1-15.
[14]王成恩.供应链中物流及信息流管理[J].中国管理科学,2000:16-23.
[15] DISNEY S M, TOWILL D R. A procedure for the optimization of the dynamic response of a vendor managed inventory system[J].Computers and Industrial Engineering,2002,43(7):27-58.
[16]仝凌云,陈增强,袁著祉.供应商管理库存中的一种供需问题及优化模[J].系统工程,2004,(9):1463-1484.
[17]马德良,张家钰.VMI系统下一个物流成本控制优化模型的建立[J].东华大学学报,2003,29(6):35-38.
[18] SILA Cetinkaya, LEE Chung Yee. Stock replenishment and shipment scheduling for vendor managed inventory systems[J].Management Science, 2000,46(2):217-232.
[19] SEVEN Axsater. A note on stock replenishment and shipment scheduling for vendor managed inventory systems[J].Management Science,2001,47(9): 1306-1310.
[20] YAN D, XU K F. A supply chain model of vendor managed inventory[J]. Logistics and Transportation Review,2002,38(2):75-95.
[21]蔡建湖,黄卫来,周根贵.基于收益分享契约的VMI模型研究[J].中国管理科学,2006,14(4):108-113.
[22]杨泽涛,海峰.VMI虚拟团队运作及其工作流管理[J].学技术管理,2001,2(10):81-85.
[23]吴文祥.VMI供应链系统的经济效果评价研究[J].应用研究,2003,15(6):55-58.
[24]徐文亮,徐青川,乔卓.VMI下的供应链库存系统分析[J].管理现代化,2002,(11):18-19.
[25]许星剑,陈颖.采用供应商库存管理(VMI)的短期内供应链绩效评价[J].中国管理科学,2004,(4):182-184.
[26]刘丽文,袁佳瑞.VMI环境下的库存与发货模型研究[J].中国管理科学,2003,(5):31-36.
[27]何俊,赵正佳.供应链协调机制与契约分析[J].物流科技,2006,(6):130-132.
[28]何勇,杨德礼,张醒洲.需求与价格具有相关性下的退货政策模型研究[J].系统工程,2004,22(9):27-31.
[29]姚忠.退货策略在单周期产品供应链管理中的作用[J].工程理论与实践,2003,23(6):69-71.
[30] DANA J, SPIER K. Revenue sharing and vertical control in the video rental industry[J].The Journal of Industrial Economics,2001,49(3):223-245.
[31] PASTERNACK B. Using revenue sharing to achieve channel coordination for a newsboy type inventory model[Z].California State University Working Paper,Fullerton,1999:201-230.
[32] CACHON G, LARIVIERE M. Supply chain coordination with revenue-sharing contracts: strengths and limitations[J].Management Science, 2005,51(1):30-44.
[33] GERCHAK Y, WANG Y. Revenue-sharing vs. wholesale-price contracts in assembly systems with random demand[R].Department of Management Sciences,University of Waterloo,2000:175-190.
[34]柳键,马士华.供应链合作及其契约研究[J].管理工程学,2004(1):85-87.
[35] KEVIN Weng. Channel coordination and quantity discounts[J].Management Science,1995,41(9):1509-1522.
[36]赵晗萍,冯允成,姚李刚.目标数量折扣下的供应链协调分析[J].系统工程,2005,23(8):51-52.
[37]关志民,徐慧,马钦海.联合协调下分销系统价格折扣问题研究[J].东北大学学报,2004,25(4):402-405.
[38]马祖军.供应链中供需协调及数量折扣定价模型[J].西南交通大学学报,2004,39(2):185-186.
[39]马士华,林勇,陈志祥.供应链管理[M].北京:机械工业出版社,2000:40-45.
[40]柴跃廷,刘义.敏捷供需链管理[M].北京:清华大学出版社, 2001:54-59.
[41] CHAOUCH Ben A. Stock levels and delivery pates in vendor managed inventory programs[J].Production and Operations Management,2001,10(1): 31-44.
[42] LEE H, PADMANABHAN P, WHANG S. The bullwhip effect in supply chains[J].Sloan Management Review,1997,38(3):93-102.
[43] ANDRES Angulo, NACHTMANN Heather, WALLER Matthew A. Supply chain information sharing in a vendor managed inventory partnership[J]. Business Logistics,2004,25(1):101-120.
[44] GRADY M W. Performance measurement: implementing strategy[J]. Management Accounting,1991,2(5):49-53.
[45] DISNEY S M, TOWILL D R. The effect of vendor managed inventory dynamics on the bullwhip effect in supply chain[J].International Journal of Production Economics,2003,85(2):199-215.
[46] MUSALEM E P, DEKKER R. Controlling inventories in a supply chain: a case study[J].International Journal of Production Economics,2005,93294(1): 179-188.
[47]马俊,孙小明.基于Petri网的生产系统仿真研究[J].起重运输机械,2004,31(4):33-36.
[48] LIN Furen, WOO Tan Gek, SHAW M J. Modeling supply chain networks by a multi-agent system[C].Proceedings of the Thirty-First Hawaii International Conference,1998:105-114.
[49]陈剑,陆今芳.多智能自主体企业供应链系统的构建及激励机制研究[J].系统工程理论与实践,2000,(7):1-9.
[50] KUBOTA F, SATO S, NAKANO M. Enterprise modeling and simulation platform integrating manufacturing system design and supply chain[C].IEEE International Conference,1999:511-515.
[51] DONG Wenyi, SOUNG Hie Kim, NAK Hyun Kim. Combined modeling with multi-agent systems and simulation: it’s application to harbor supply chain management[C].Proceedings of the 35th Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences,2002:86-92.