新疆棉花生产波动及其影响因素研究
|
摘要
棉花是我国重要经济作物,其产业关联度大。中国目前已经成为世界上最大的棉花生产国和消费国,棉花年产量和消费量均占世界总产量和总消费量的四分之一左右。新疆是我国最古老的棉区之一,有悠久的植棉历史,全疆86个县(市)中有63个县(市)常年植棉。据统计,2006年棉花(皮棉)产值占农业总产值的35.7%,占种植业产值的50.88%,占GDP的13.1%;全疆农牧民人均纯收入中20%来自棉花。目前新疆棉花在面积、总产、单产、调出量、商品出口率、人均占有量六个方面位列全国第一。
改革开放以来,我国棉花生产一直处于明显的波动之中,其年际波动幅度之大,远远超出了正常的范围。波动(Fluctuation)原来是一个物理学名词,指物体有规律上下反复运动的过程。波动被引入到经济学中时泛指经济变量在时间序列上的变动过程或状态,在本研究中,棉花生产波动主要指主要年际棉花总产量的实际变化偏离正常的长期趋势产量。与全国的棉花生产形势一样,新疆的棉花生产也一直处于明显的波动之中。棉花价格暴涨暴跌,棉花总产量大起大落,卖棉难和买棉难交替出现。棉花价格、产量、供求关系的巨大波动,对棉花的生产者、经营者、消费者和国家财政都带来了不利的影响[1]。
本文运用剩余法对新疆1985—2006年的棉花总产量进行了分析,得出1987—2005年间新疆棉花总产量波动周期的平均长度大约为4年的结论。影响新疆棉花生产的因素除了国家及自治区的棉花政策以外,还受棉花播种面积、受灾面积、农业机械总动力等因素的影响。也就是说,种植规模、气象因子、农业机械化程度是影响新疆棉花生产最主要的因素。因此,稳定新疆棉花生产的政策建议有:⑴建立一个更加开放的棉花流通体制;⑵合理布局棉花生产,适当压缩棉花种植面积,走高产优质低成本之路;⑶大力加强棉花科技投入,提高棉花生产的科技水平;⑷强化棉花市场监管;⑸建立新疆储备棉新机制——预警机制。
Cotton is an important cash crop in China, and the degree of the industrial is deep. At present, China has become the world's largest cotton producing and consuming countries, with cotton output and consumption volume accounting for one quarter of the world's total. Xinjiang is one of China's most ancient cotton-growing areas, with a long history of the cotton.There are 63 counties (cities) producing in the whole 86 counties (cities) in annual cotton. According to statistics, the 2006 cotton (lint) accounted for 35.7% of the total agricultural output value, accounting for the value of planting 50.88%, accounting for 13.1 per cent of GDP; the whole per capita net income of peasants and herdsmen in 20% from cotton. Xinjiang cotton ranked first in the country in the following areas: total production, yield, transfer volume, merchandise export rate, and per capita consumption.
Since the reform and opening up, China's cotton production has been in obvious fluctuations, the annual fluctuations of the scale, being far beyond the normal scope. Fluctuations used to be a physics term which refers to the process in which objects repeatedly from top to bottom. Fluctuations are introduced to economics, referring to the time series of economic variables in process or state of change. In this study, it mainly refers to fluctuations in cotton production in major cotton production occasion of the actual changes in the long-term trend of deviating from normal yield. As the situation of the whole country's cotton production, cotton production in Xinjiang has been in a significant fluctuation. Cotton prices rose sharply and plummeted, cotton production ups and downs, and difficulty selling and buying cotton alternated. Fierce fluctuation in the price, production, and supply-demand relationship of cotton has brought negative influence to cotton producers, operators, consumers and the state finance.
This paper uses residual method of Xinjiang cotton output in 1985-2006 to analyze, and that between 1987-2005, drawing the conclusion of four years length. Besides the cotton policy of the state and the autonomous region, what affect Xinjiang cotton production are the cotton acreage, the suffered areas, the total machinery motive force, and other factors. In other words, growing scale, meteorological factors, the degree of agricultural mechanization are the most important factors affecting cotton production in Xinjiang. Therefore, proposals for policy on stabilizing Xinjiang cotton production are as follows:⑴establishment of a more open cotton circulation system;⑵rational distribution of cotton production, cotton acreage appropriate compression, and take the road of low-cost and high yield and high quality;⑶vigorously strengthen scientific and technological input of cotton, improve technological level of cotton production;⑷strengthen supervision of the cotton market;⑸establishment of a new mechanism of Xinjiang cotton reserves - early-warning mechanism.
改革开放以来,我国棉花生产一直处于明显的波动之中,其年际波动幅度之大,远远超出了正常的范围。波动(Fluctuation)原来是一个物理学名词,指物体有规律上下反复运动的过程。波动被引入到经济学中时泛指经济变量在时间序列上的变动过程或状态,在本研究中,棉花生产波动主要指主要年际棉花总产量的实际变化偏离正常的长期趋势产量。与全国的棉花生产形势一样,新疆的棉花生产也一直处于明显的波动之中。棉花价格暴涨暴跌,棉花总产量大起大落,卖棉难和买棉难交替出现。棉花价格、产量、供求关系的巨大波动,对棉花的生产者、经营者、消费者和国家财政都带来了不利的影响[1]。
本文运用剩余法对新疆1985—2006年的棉花总产量进行了分析,得出1987—2005年间新疆棉花总产量波动周期的平均长度大约为4年的结论。影响新疆棉花生产的因素除了国家及自治区的棉花政策以外,还受棉花播种面积、受灾面积、农业机械总动力等因素的影响。也就是说,种植规模、气象因子、农业机械化程度是影响新疆棉花生产最主要的因素。因此,稳定新疆棉花生产的政策建议有:⑴建立一个更加开放的棉花流通体制;⑵合理布局棉花生产,适当压缩棉花种植面积,走高产优质低成本之路;⑶大力加强棉花科技投入,提高棉花生产的科技水平;⑷强化棉花市场监管;⑸建立新疆储备棉新机制——预警机制。
Cotton is an important cash crop in China, and the degree of the industrial is deep. At present, China has become the world's largest cotton producing and consuming countries, with cotton output and consumption volume accounting for one quarter of the world's total. Xinjiang is one of China's most ancient cotton-growing areas, with a long history of the cotton.There are 63 counties (cities) producing in the whole 86 counties (cities) in annual cotton. According to statistics, the 2006 cotton (lint) accounted for 35.7% of the total agricultural output value, accounting for the value of planting 50.88%, accounting for 13.1 per cent of GDP; the whole per capita net income of peasants and herdsmen in 20% from cotton. Xinjiang cotton ranked first in the country in the following areas: total production, yield, transfer volume, merchandise export rate, and per capita consumption.
Since the reform and opening up, China's cotton production has been in obvious fluctuations, the annual fluctuations of the scale, being far beyond the normal scope. Fluctuations used to be a physics term which refers to the process in which objects repeatedly from top to bottom. Fluctuations are introduced to economics, referring to the time series of economic variables in process or state of change. In this study, it mainly refers to fluctuations in cotton production in major cotton production occasion of the actual changes in the long-term trend of deviating from normal yield. As the situation of the whole country's cotton production, cotton production in Xinjiang has been in a significant fluctuation. Cotton prices rose sharply and plummeted, cotton production ups and downs, and difficulty selling and buying cotton alternated. Fierce fluctuation in the price, production, and supply-demand relationship of cotton has brought negative influence to cotton producers, operators, consumers and the state finance.
This paper uses residual method of Xinjiang cotton output in 1985-2006 to analyze, and that between 1987-2005, drawing the conclusion of four years length. Besides the cotton policy of the state and the autonomous region, what affect Xinjiang cotton production are the cotton acreage, the suffered areas, the total machinery motive force, and other factors. In other words, growing scale, meteorological factors, the degree of agricultural mechanization are the most important factors affecting cotton production in Xinjiang. Therefore, proposals for policy on stabilizing Xinjiang cotton production are as follows:⑴establishment of a more open cotton circulation system;⑵rational distribution of cotton production, cotton acreage appropriate compression, and take the road of low-cost and high yield and high quality;⑶vigorously strengthen scientific and technological input of cotton, improve technological level of cotton production;⑷strengthen supervision of the cotton market;⑸establishment of a new mechanism of Xinjiang cotton reserves - early-warning mechanism.
引文
[1]蔡派.当前棉花产销形势及对策研究.中国农业信息快讯.2001(2):12～13
[2]约瑟夫.熊彼特著.经济发展理论[M].北京:商务印书馆,2000.56～59
[3]阿瑟.刘易斯著.增长与波动[M].北京:华夏出版社,1987.13～17
[4]刘江.21世纪中国农业发展战略[M].北京:中国农业出版社,2000.109～112
[5]杨继良.中国棉业发展和棉区划分及棉种和原棉质量现状.中国棉花网.2006年9月5日.
[6]杜珉.2001年中国棉花供求形势分析[J].中国棉花.2002(2):11～13
[7]胡凤玲,上官学进.我国棉花生产滑坡的原因与可持续发展的构想[J].中国农村经济.1998(6):50～54
[8]冀名峰.合理粮棉比价的区域差异性及其政策含义[J].农业经济学, 2002(2):13～15
[9]蒋逸民.中国棉花进出口研究[J].2001(5): 19～21
[10]何炳生,何秀荣,田维明等著.WTO与中国农业简明读本[M].中国农业出版社.2002.96～102
[11]卢锋.棉花供求变化周期性与我国棉花积压亏损问题.北京大学中国经济研究中心简报.1999(35):21～23
[12]卢锋.我国棉花外贸“贱卖贵卖”现象及其根源.北京大学中国经济研究中心简报.2000(9).
[13]卢锋.价格干预稳定性绩效[J].农业经济学,2001(2):180～189
[14]缪建平等.新中国棉花生产发展的历史回顾及其经验教训.中国农村研究报告(1990—1998年):812～831.中国财政经济出版社.1999.
[15]张泉欣.棉花购销制度改革研究[J].中国农村经济,1998(4):22～26
[16]李文娟主编.中国棉花产需平衡研究[M].纺织工业出版社.1996.77～83
[17]周曙东.中国棉花长期波动的规律及深层次原因[J].农业经济问题,2001(6):44～48
[18]李岳云,蒋乃华,郭忠兴著.中国粮食波动论[M].中国农业出版社.2001.144～157
[19]罗英姿.加入WTO后对我国棉花流通体制及政策的影响[J].农业经济问题,2001(5):32～35
[20]李明.中国加入WTO对棉花生产的影响[J].农业经济,2002(增刊):25～27
[21]缪建平,郑有贵.棉花产销波动分析.中国农业年鉴.1995:515～517
[22]毛树春.我国棉花发展展望[J].中国棉花.1998,25(9):2～6
[23]杜珉.对改革开放以来我国棉花生产波动原因的思考.中国农村研究报告(1990—1998年):832～851.中国财政经济出版社.1999.
[24]毛树春.当前我国棉花生产热点、难点问题及其解决途径.中国棉花.2000,27(2):27～28
[25]周署东.中国棉花长期波动的规律及深层次原因[J].农业经济问题,2001(6):6～11
[26]毛树春.2001年棉花生产、消费和价格走势综合分析[J].中国棉花,2001(8):46～47
[27]马淑萍.当前棉花生产形势及发展对策建议[J].众多棉花,2003(1):3
[28]牛若峰等.中国发展报告——农业与发展[M].浙江人民出版社,2000.116～120
[29]潘文卿.面对WTO中国农产品外贸有世纪战略选择[J].农业经济问题,2000(10):6～12
[30]王凯,罗英姿,李明等.加入世贸组织与我国棉花产业链的发展[J].现代经济探讨,2001(12):13～15
[31]王凯,方成,罗英姿,李明等.加入WTO对我国棉花产业链的影响及对策[J].2001年中国国际棉花会议论文集,2001.
[32]王淑民,项时康.近年世界棉花形势及我国棉业发展对策建议[J].中国棉花,1990(10):2～8
[33]汪若海.科技对发展我国棉花生产的重大作用[J].中国棉花,2004(4):2～4
[34]徐立华.我国棉花高产、高效栽培技术研究现状与发展思路[J].中国棉花,2001(3):5～8
[35]尹宗员,孙玮琪.我国棉花流通体制改革的思路与建议[J].中国棉花,1999(1):4～6
[36]马淑萍.试论我国棉花产业化经营及其发展对策[J].中国棉花,2001,28(1):21～22
[37]王淑民,项时康.近年世界棉花形势及我国棉业发展对策研究[J].中国棉花,2000(1):2～8
[37]杨世基.中国棉业经济探析[J].农业经济与科技发展研究中国农业出版社.2000. 207～217
[2]约瑟夫.熊彼特著.经济发展理论[M].北京:商务印书馆,2000.56～59
[3]阿瑟.刘易斯著.增长与波动[M].北京:华夏出版社,1987.13～17
[4]刘江.21世纪中国农业发展战略[M].北京:中国农业出版社,2000.109～112
[5]杨继良.中国棉业发展和棉区划分及棉种和原棉质量现状.中国棉花网.2006年9月5日.
[6]杜珉.2001年中国棉花供求形势分析[J].中国棉花.2002(2):11～13
[7]胡凤玲,上官学进.我国棉花生产滑坡的原因与可持续发展的构想[J].中国农村经济.1998(6):50～54
[8]冀名峰.合理粮棉比价的区域差异性及其政策含义[J].农业经济学, 2002(2):13～15
[9]蒋逸民.中国棉花进出口研究[J].2001(5): 19～21
[10]何炳生,何秀荣,田维明等著.WTO与中国农业简明读本[M].中国农业出版社.2002.96～102
[11]卢锋.棉花供求变化周期性与我国棉花积压亏损问题.北京大学中国经济研究中心简报.1999(35):21～23
[12]卢锋.我国棉花外贸“贱卖贵卖”现象及其根源.北京大学中国经济研究中心简报.2000(9).
[13]卢锋.价格干预稳定性绩效[J].农业经济学,2001(2):180～189
[14]缪建平等.新中国棉花生产发展的历史回顾及其经验教训.中国农村研究报告(1990—1998年):812～831.中国财政经济出版社.1999.
[15]张泉欣.棉花购销制度改革研究[J].中国农村经济,1998(4):22～26
[16]李文娟主编.中国棉花产需平衡研究[M].纺织工业出版社.1996.77～83
[17]周曙东.中国棉花长期波动的规律及深层次原因[J].农业经济问题,2001(6):44～48
[18]李岳云,蒋乃华,郭忠兴著.中国粮食波动论[M].中国农业出版社.2001.144～157
[19]罗英姿.加入WTO后对我国棉花流通体制及政策的影响[J].农业经济问题,2001(5):32～35
[20]李明.中国加入WTO对棉花生产的影响[J].农业经济,2002(增刊):25～27
[21]缪建平,郑有贵.棉花产销波动分析.中国农业年鉴.1995:515～517
[22]毛树春.我国棉花发展展望[J].中国棉花.1998,25(9):2～6
[23]杜珉.对改革开放以来我国棉花生产波动原因的思考.中国农村研究报告(1990—1998年):832～851.中国财政经济出版社.1999.
[24]毛树春.当前我国棉花生产热点、难点问题及其解决途径.中国棉花.2000,27(2):27～28
[25]周署东.中国棉花长期波动的规律及深层次原因[J].农业经济问题,2001(6):6～11
[26]毛树春.2001年棉花生产、消费和价格走势综合分析[J].中国棉花,2001(8):46～47
[27]马淑萍.当前棉花生产形势及发展对策建议[J].众多棉花,2003(1):3
[28]牛若峰等.中国发展报告——农业与发展[M].浙江人民出版社,2000.116～120
[29]潘文卿.面对WTO中国农产品外贸有世纪战略选择[J].农业经济问题,2000(10):6～12
[30]王凯,罗英姿,李明等.加入世贸组织与我国棉花产业链的发展[J].现代经济探讨,2001(12):13～15
[31]王凯,方成,罗英姿,李明等.加入WTO对我国棉花产业链的影响及对策[J].2001年中国国际棉花会议论文集,2001.
[32]王淑民,项时康.近年世界棉花形势及我国棉业发展对策建议[J].中国棉花,1990(10):2～8
[33]汪若海.科技对发展我国棉花生产的重大作用[J].中国棉花,2004(4):2～4
[34]徐立华.我国棉花高产、高效栽培技术研究现状与发展思路[J].中国棉花,2001(3):5～8
[35]尹宗员,孙玮琪.我国棉花流通体制改革的思路与建议[J].中国棉花,1999(1):4～6
[36]马淑萍.试论我国棉花产业化经营及其发展对策[J].中国棉花,2001,28(1):21～22
[37]王淑民,项时康.近年世界棉花形势及我国棉业发展对策研究[J].中国棉花,2000(1):2～8
[37]杨世基.中国棉业经济探析[J].农业经济与科技发展研究中国农业出版社.2000. 207～217