黑龙江省大豆期货发展对策研究
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摘要
期货市场是市场体系重要组成部分,发挥着价格发现与规避风险的作用。黑龙江省是农业大省,如何利用期货来应对现货市场上的价格波动成为新时期增强农产品竞争力,帮助农民规避风险、增加收入的有利途径。自2004年国际粮商对中国大豆产业的催击,大豆定价权逐渐被国际粮商垄断,进口转基因大豆日益增多导致国内大豆种植面积消减,威胁到民族大豆产业的发展,然而黑龙江省大豆期货市场并不完善,严重影响了农户与大豆加工企业利用大豆期货规避市场风险、控制国内大豆产品定价权。因此,发展黑龙江省大豆期货成为经济发展的大势所趋,也符合社会主义农村工作开展的要求。
文章利用规范分析方法对黑龙江省大豆期货的现状、问题进行客观阐述,明确了黑龙江省当前大豆期货发展的基本情况,随着市场经济与金融市场的发展,黑龙江省参与大豆期货市场的程度得到显著提高,但依然存在着大豆期货参与主体规模与结构不合理、期货市场功能发挥不充分、期货交易效率低下等问题;承接论文的思路,对黑龙江省大豆期货发展的影响因素进行了分析,从期货市场与现货市场两方面进行具体剖析;文章利用实证分析方法:ADF检验、Johansen协整检验、Granger因果关系检验等方法分析了黑龙江省大豆期货价格与现货价格之间的引导关系,验证了在黑龙江省大豆期货市场功能的有效性。最终提出发展黑龙江省大豆期货的大胆构想,解释了这一构想的指导思想,设计原则以及具体内容,得出发展黑龙江省大豆期货,必须本着因地制宜的思想,以国家以及省的大豆产业发展目标为指导,保障大豆产业的安全发展与在国际市场上的竞争优势,同时保障大豆种植农户的利益,确保农户具有种植大豆的生产积极性,具体在合约内容的重新设计、大豆期货交易制度对农户与农业加工企业适度放宽,在黑龙江省设立大豆期货的交割仓库,做到当地产、当地加工,输出附加值产品,保障农户与大豆加工企业能充分利用大豆期货市场价格发现与规避风险的功能,保障农户的利益与大豆加工企业的利润,以及黑龙江大豆在国际市场上的定价权。
通过文章的研究得出,黑龙江省大豆期货市场功能是存在并且可以发挥作用的,关键是如何通过各方面的努力与通力合作共同利用好期货市场功能为实际生产发挥作用,除了要遵循笔者提出的大胆构想的基本原则与发展轨迹外,提出黑龙江省大豆期货发展的对策建议,一定要同步积极地培育期货市场与现货市场两个市场,因为两者的发展呈相辅相成的关系,期货市场的发展一定要建立在完善的现货市场基础上,尤其是基础设施方面的完善,将大大提高期货交易的效率,而期货市场的发展又会反过来促进现货市场的理性发展,因此要加快大豆现货市场的建设与发展,完善大豆物流体系建设,提高现货市场完全竞争程度;期货市场方面,通过转变政府职能,由直接干预向间接扶持过度,完善大豆期货交易政策环境,积极培育黑龙江省大豆期货结构合理、规模适中的交易主体,完善以大豆期货价格为核心的信息传导机制等。总体上达到从理论上丰富大豆期货交易制度的建设,而在实践上提出对黑龙江省大豆期货发展更具有针对性与可操作性的构想与对策建议。最终帮助农户与大豆加工企业规避现货市场价格波动风险,从而提升国内大豆竞争力,保障民族大豆产业的发展。
Futures market is an important part of the market system, playing the role of price discovery and risk aversion. Heilongjiang Province is a major agricultural province, how to use futures to respond to the price volatility in the spot market become a favorable way to enhance the competitiveness of agricultural products, to help farmers avoid the risk and to increase revenue in the new era. Since the strike that came from the international food business to the Chinese soybean industry in 2004, the international grain soybean pricing rights was monopolized by the international food business gradually. Increasing imports of genetically modified soybeans led domestic soybean acreage reduction and treated the development of the nation's soybean industry. However, the soybean futures market in Heilongjiang Province was not perfect, and it seriously affected the farmers and soybean processing enterprises using the soybean futures to avoid market risks and control the soybean product pricing domestic. Therefore, the development of soybean futures in Heilongjiang Province become the general trend of economic development, and is in line with the requirements of carrying out the work in the socialist rural areas.
Paper using standard analysis of Soybean futures on the current situation, issues an objective set, clear the current soybean futures development in Heilongjiang Province basic situation, with the market economy and financial market developments, Heilongjiang Province, the degree of participation in soybean futures market, a marked improved, but there is still the main soybean futures participation scale and structure is unreasonable, inadequate functioning futures market, futures trading inefficiency, etc;Undertake dissertation ideas, Soybean futures on the factors affecting the development of the analysis, from the futures market and spot market specific analysis of two aspects; article uses empirical analysis: ADF test, Johansen cointegration tests, Granger causality test and other methods analysis of soybean futures prices and spot price relationship between the guide to verify the function of soybean futures market effectiveness. Finally proposed the development of soybean futures bold idea to explain the guiding principle of this concept, design principles and specific content of the development of soybean futures reached, thought to be in line with local conditions, to national and provincial development objectives soybean industry To guide and protect the safety of soybean industry in international market development and competitive advantage while ensuring soybean farmers interests, ensure that the farmers have planted soybean for production initiative, specifically in terms of contracts re-designed Soybean futures trading system on farmers and agricultural processing enterprises to relax, the establishment of soybean in Heilongjiang Province, futures delivery warehouse, so that when the real estate, local processing, the output value-added products, to protect farmers and the soybean processing enterprises to make full use of soybean futures market price discovery and avoid risks and safeguard the interests of farmers and the soybean processing business profits, and soybean in Heilongjiang in the international market pricing.
Research obtained through articles, Heilongjiang Province, soybean futures market functions exist and can play a role, the key is how the various aspects of Nu Li and co-operation Gongtongliyong good futures markets play a role in the actual production function, Chule to Zunxun author Tichu of bold vision of the basic principles and development path, the proposed development of Soybean futures countermeasures, must be actively engaged in cultivating futures markets and spot markets, which complement the development of the futures market must be based on sound Based on the spot market, especially in infrastructure improvement will greatly enhance the efficiency of futures trading, futures market spot market deals in turn promote the rational development of Therefore, the spot market to speed up the construction of soybean development, improve Dadou logistics system and improve the level of competition the spot market completely; futures market, the transformation of government functions, from direct intervention to Jianjiefuchi change and improve the policy environment of soybean futures to nurturing Heilongjiang Soybean futures reasonable structure, the main transactions of moderate size, improve soybean futures prices at the core of the information transmission mechanism. Generally reached in theory building abundant soybean futures trading system, but in practice made of soybean futures on the development of more targeted and workable ideas and strategy. Ultimately help farmers and soybean processors to avoid the spot market price fluctuations, so as to enhance the competitiveness of the domestic soybean, to protect national soybean industry.
文章利用规范分析方法对黑龙江省大豆期货的现状、问题进行客观阐述,明确了黑龙江省当前大豆期货发展的基本情况,随着市场经济与金融市场的发展,黑龙江省参与大豆期货市场的程度得到显著提高,但依然存在着大豆期货参与主体规模与结构不合理、期货市场功能发挥不充分、期货交易效率低下等问题;承接论文的思路,对黑龙江省大豆期货发展的影响因素进行了分析,从期货市场与现货市场两方面进行具体剖析;文章利用实证分析方法:ADF检验、Johansen协整检验、Granger因果关系检验等方法分析了黑龙江省大豆期货价格与现货价格之间的引导关系,验证了在黑龙江省大豆期货市场功能的有效性。最终提出发展黑龙江省大豆期货的大胆构想,解释了这一构想的指导思想,设计原则以及具体内容,得出发展黑龙江省大豆期货,必须本着因地制宜的思想,以国家以及省的大豆产业发展目标为指导,保障大豆产业的安全发展与在国际市场上的竞争优势,同时保障大豆种植农户的利益,确保农户具有种植大豆的生产积极性,具体在合约内容的重新设计、大豆期货交易制度对农户与农业加工企业适度放宽,在黑龙江省设立大豆期货的交割仓库,做到当地产、当地加工,输出附加值产品,保障农户与大豆加工企业能充分利用大豆期货市场价格发现与规避风险的功能,保障农户的利益与大豆加工企业的利润,以及黑龙江大豆在国际市场上的定价权。
通过文章的研究得出,黑龙江省大豆期货市场功能是存在并且可以发挥作用的,关键是如何通过各方面的努力与通力合作共同利用好期货市场功能为实际生产发挥作用,除了要遵循笔者提出的大胆构想的基本原则与发展轨迹外,提出黑龙江省大豆期货发展的对策建议,一定要同步积极地培育期货市场与现货市场两个市场,因为两者的发展呈相辅相成的关系,期货市场的发展一定要建立在完善的现货市场基础上,尤其是基础设施方面的完善,将大大提高期货交易的效率,而期货市场的发展又会反过来促进现货市场的理性发展,因此要加快大豆现货市场的建设与发展,完善大豆物流体系建设,提高现货市场完全竞争程度;期货市场方面,通过转变政府职能,由直接干预向间接扶持过度,完善大豆期货交易政策环境,积极培育黑龙江省大豆期货结构合理、规模适中的交易主体,完善以大豆期货价格为核心的信息传导机制等。总体上达到从理论上丰富大豆期货交易制度的建设,而在实践上提出对黑龙江省大豆期货发展更具有针对性与可操作性的构想与对策建议。最终帮助农户与大豆加工企业规避现货市场价格波动风险,从而提升国内大豆竞争力,保障民族大豆产业的发展。
Futures market is an important part of the market system, playing the role of price discovery and risk aversion. Heilongjiang Province is a major agricultural province, how to use futures to respond to the price volatility in the spot market become a favorable way to enhance the competitiveness of agricultural products, to help farmers avoid the risk and to increase revenue in the new era. Since the strike that came from the international food business to the Chinese soybean industry in 2004, the international grain soybean pricing rights was monopolized by the international food business gradually. Increasing imports of genetically modified soybeans led domestic soybean acreage reduction and treated the development of the nation's soybean industry. However, the soybean futures market in Heilongjiang Province was not perfect, and it seriously affected the farmers and soybean processing enterprises using the soybean futures to avoid market risks and control the soybean product pricing domestic. Therefore, the development of soybean futures in Heilongjiang Province become the general trend of economic development, and is in line with the requirements of carrying out the work in the socialist rural areas.
Paper using standard analysis of Soybean futures on the current situation, issues an objective set, clear the current soybean futures development in Heilongjiang Province basic situation, with the market economy and financial market developments, Heilongjiang Province, the degree of participation in soybean futures market, a marked improved, but there is still the main soybean futures participation scale and structure is unreasonable, inadequate functioning futures market, futures trading inefficiency, etc;Undertake dissertation ideas, Soybean futures on the factors affecting the development of the analysis, from the futures market and spot market specific analysis of two aspects; article uses empirical analysis: ADF test, Johansen cointegration tests, Granger causality test and other methods analysis of soybean futures prices and spot price relationship between the guide to verify the function of soybean futures market effectiveness. Finally proposed the development of soybean futures bold idea to explain the guiding principle of this concept, design principles and specific content of the development of soybean futures reached, thought to be in line with local conditions, to national and provincial development objectives soybean industry To guide and protect the safety of soybean industry in international market development and competitive advantage while ensuring soybean farmers interests, ensure that the farmers have planted soybean for production initiative, specifically in terms of contracts re-designed Soybean futures trading system on farmers and agricultural processing enterprises to relax, the establishment of soybean in Heilongjiang Province, futures delivery warehouse, so that when the real estate, local processing, the output value-added products, to protect farmers and the soybean processing enterprises to make full use of soybean futures market price discovery and avoid risks and safeguard the interests of farmers and the soybean processing business profits, and soybean in Heilongjiang in the international market pricing.
Research obtained through articles, Heilongjiang Province, soybean futures market functions exist and can play a role, the key is how the various aspects of Nu Li and co-operation Gongtongliyong good futures markets play a role in the actual production function, Chule to Zunxun author Tichu of bold vision of the basic principles and development path, the proposed development of Soybean futures countermeasures, must be actively engaged in cultivating futures markets and spot markets, which complement the development of the futures market must be based on sound Based on the spot market, especially in infrastructure improvement will greatly enhance the efficiency of futures trading, futures market spot market deals in turn promote the rational development of Therefore, the spot market to speed up the construction of soybean development, improve Dadou logistics system and improve the level of competition the spot market completely; futures market, the transformation of government functions, from direct intervention to Jianjiefuchi change and improve the policy environment of soybean futures to nurturing Heilongjiang Soybean futures reasonable structure, the main transactions of moderate size, improve soybean futures prices at the core of the information transmission mechanism. Generally reached in theory building abundant soybean futures trading system, but in practice made of soybean futures on the development of more targeted and workable ideas and strategy. Ultimately help farmers and soybean processors to avoid the spot market price fluctuations, so as to enhance the competitiveness of the domestic soybean, to protect national soybean industry.
引文
高铁生,朱玉辰. 2005,中国农产品期货市场功能发挥与产业发展,第二版.北京:中国财政出版社:5-13;25-29;36-42
常清. 2005,期货市场前沿理论探讨,第一版.北京:机械出版社
乔娟,李秉龙,康敏.2008,中国农产品期货市场功能与现货市场关系研究,第一版.北京:科学出版社:2-13;19-28;38-46;162-172
李斌.2007,股指期货交易基础,第一版.北京:中国宇航出版社:4-17
萨缪尔森. 2004,经济学(第17版)[M].北京:人民邮电出版社
约翰·赫尔. 2001,期货与期权市场基本原理仁M].北京:清华大学出版社
平狄克.计量经济模型与经济预测[M]2006..北京:机械工业出版社
约翰·斯蒂芬斯. 2004,用商品期货与期权管理商品风险,第二版.北京:中国人民大学出版社
王长梅.影响大豆期货价格的主要因素[J].期货天地,2005,(16)
康敏,乔娟.2004,中国大豆期货市场运行特点及其影响因素[J].调研世界,(8):20-25
熊焰,孙亚东.2004,我国大豆期货价格影响因素分析[J].中南民族大学学报,(6):100-102
陈波. 2003,我国大豆期货价格形成机制实证分析[D].中南大学硕士学位论文,
高辉.2003,大连商品期货价格协整关系与引导关系的实证研究[J].太原理工大学学报, (3)
刀韩德宗,孙亚东.2005,DCF和CBOT大豆期货价格平稳过程的比较研究[J].管理评论, (1)
华仁海,仲伟俊.2002,对我国期货市场价格发现功能的实证分析[J].南开管理评论,(5)
华仁海,仲伟俊,2003,我国期货价格收益、交易量、波动性关系的动态分析.统计研究, (7)
商如斌,伍旋,2000,期货市场有效性理论与实证研究[J].管理工程学报,(4)
司继文等. 2004,国内外期货市场相关性研究[J].华中科技大学学报(城市科学版),(4)
唐衍伟等. 2004,我国期货市场的波动性与有效性,——基于三大交易市场的实证分析.财贸研究。(5)
赵进文.2004,我国期货市场与国际期货市场关联度分析与协整检验[J].中国软科学,(5)
康敏,乔娟. 2005,中国大豆期货市场运行特点及其影响因素.调研世界. (l)
王健,黄祖辉. 2006,我国大豆期货市场价格发现功能的实证研究.农业技术经济. (3)
高辉. 2003,大连商品期货价格协整关系与引导关系的实证研究[J].太原理工大学学报(社会科学版)(1)
田新民,沈小刚.SHFE与LME期铜价格因果关系分析[J].首都经济贸易大学学报,2005,(3)
孙顶强. 2004,从市场整合看中国木材市场运行效率[D].南京农业大学,优秀硕士论文
康敏. 2005,中国农产品期货市场功能与现货市场关系研究.中国农业大学,优秀博士论文:176-186;194-197
大商所网站、www.workws.com
乔娟,李秉龙,康敏.2008,中国农产品期货市场功能与现货市场关系研究,第一版.北京:科学出版社26-27
高志杰,2007,农产品期货市场波动与效率研究,博士论文84-92
期货基础知识(期货从业资格考试教材)2007,13-17
Hilliard, J.E., J.A.Reis. 1998 ,“Valuation of Commodity Futures and Options under Stochastic Convenience Yields, Interest Rates, and Jump Diffusions in the Spot.”[J].Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis33:61–86
Fackler, P.L. 2001“Spatial Price Analysis”, Handbook of Agricultural Economics,
Hung-Gay Fung, Waik.Leung, XiaoQing Eleanor Xu. 2003,“Information Flows Bet- weep the U.S and China Commodity Futures Trading”, Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting 21 John C. Hull. 2001,“Options, Futures, and Other Derivatives”, Prentice-Hall
常清. 2005,期货市场前沿理论探讨,第一版.北京:机械出版社
乔娟,李秉龙,康敏.2008,中国农产品期货市场功能与现货市场关系研究,第一版.北京:科学出版社:2-13;19-28;38-46;162-172
李斌.2007,股指期货交易基础,第一版.北京:中国宇航出版社:4-17
萨缪尔森. 2004,经济学(第17版)[M].北京:人民邮电出版社
约翰·赫尔. 2001,期货与期权市场基本原理仁M].北京:清华大学出版社
平狄克.计量经济模型与经济预测[M]2006..北京:机械工业出版社
约翰·斯蒂芬斯. 2004,用商品期货与期权管理商品风险,第二版.北京:中国人民大学出版社
王长梅.影响大豆期货价格的主要因素[J].期货天地,2005,(16)
康敏,乔娟.2004,中国大豆期货市场运行特点及其影响因素[J].调研世界,(8):20-25
熊焰,孙亚东.2004,我国大豆期货价格影响因素分析[J].中南民族大学学报,(6):100-102
陈波. 2003,我国大豆期货价格形成机制实证分析[D].中南大学硕士学位论文,
高辉.2003,大连商品期货价格协整关系与引导关系的实证研究[J].太原理工大学学报, (3)
刀韩德宗,孙亚东.2005,DCF和CBOT大豆期货价格平稳过程的比较研究[J].管理评论, (1)
华仁海,仲伟俊.2002,对我国期货市场价格发现功能的实证分析[J].南开管理评论,(5)
华仁海,仲伟俊,2003,我国期货价格收益、交易量、波动性关系的动态分析.统计研究, (7)
商如斌,伍旋,2000,期货市场有效性理论与实证研究[J].管理工程学报,(4)
司继文等. 2004,国内外期货市场相关性研究[J].华中科技大学学报(城市科学版),(4)
唐衍伟等. 2004,我国期货市场的波动性与有效性,——基于三大交易市场的实证分析.财贸研究。(5)
赵进文.2004,我国期货市场与国际期货市场关联度分析与协整检验[J].中国软科学,(5)
康敏,乔娟. 2005,中国大豆期货市场运行特点及其影响因素.调研世界. (l)
王健,黄祖辉. 2006,我国大豆期货市场价格发现功能的实证研究.农业技术经济. (3)
高辉. 2003,大连商品期货价格协整关系与引导关系的实证研究[J].太原理工大学学报(社会科学版)(1)
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