昆明～楚雄高速公路交通量预测与服务水平分析
摘要
交通量预测与服务水平分析是高速公路后评价的重要组成部分,它是在已有数据的基础上,通过调查研究分析预测未来年的交通量和服务水平情况。通过分析其与可行性研究报告预测情况的差距,可确定公路项目可行性研究中交通量的预测、判断、结论是否正确,并分析原因,吸取教训,总结经验,为今后改进公路项目可行性研究以及同类项目立项决策和建设提供依据。交通量预测与服务水平分析是提高公路项目投资决策和管理水平,提高公路项目评估和可行性研究工作质量的有效手段,在高速公路规划以及建成后评价的过程中,始终是一项重要而有意义的工作。
本文旨在通过对昆楚高速公路交通量预测和服务水平分析研究,寻找一种适合我国高速公路交通量预测和服务水平分析的方法,为交通量预测和服务水平分析研究给予一定的建议与帮助,促进高速公路建设项目的健康、稳定、快速发展。主要内容如下：
1、对昆楚高速公路交通流基本参数调查进行分析研究。首先,确定了昆楚高速公路交通流调查参数和调查方法,并针对昆楚高速公路组织安排交通流参数调查,得出相关数据；最后,给出昆楚高速公路交通流基本参数调查结论。
2、对昆楚高速公路交通量预测进行分析研究。首先,确定了昆楚高速公路交通量预测的方法——“四阶段”法,明确了预测的基本理论、内容和程序；最后,结合昆楚高速公路相关数据,应用“四阶段”法对昆楚高速公路进行交通量预测,得到未来特征年昆楚高速公路各路段的交通量预测值。
3、对昆楚高速公路的通行能力与服务水平进行分析研究。首先,确定了昆楚高速公路基本路段通行能力的计算方法,明确了服务水平的分级标准,提出了评价服务水平的主要指标；最后,在昆楚高速公路交通量预测结果的基础上,对该高速公路进行了通行能力计算和服务水平分析,得到未来特征年昆楚高速公路各路段服务水平等级。
本文是云南省交通科技项目《云南省高等级公路建设后评价及指标体系研究》的研究内容之一。
Traffic volume prediction and service level analysis are the most important components of the post evaluation, which, based on the existing date, does the research to analyze and to predict the traffic volume and service level in the future. We can find out whether the prediction, assessment and conclusion of the traffic volume in the feasibility study of road projects is correct or not by the comparison of it and feasibility study report, and by analyzing the reasons and learning lessons, there will be a basis for the improvement of road projects feasibility study and similar projects policy decision and construction. Traffic volume prediction and service level analysis investment decisions are efficient method to improve the highway investment and decision making and management. Besides, it is significant and meaningful to the highway planning and post evolution after it's building.
This paper aims at analyzing traffic volume prediction and service level analysis of Kun-Chu highway, trying to find out a method that suits traffic volume prediction and service level analysis in our country, hoping to give some advice and assistance in traffic prediction and service level analysis, and to promote the health, stable and rapid development of highway construction projects. Contents are as follows:
1. Analysis will be made on traffic flow detection of Kun-Chu highway. At first, it introduces the concept of traffic flow detection and survey methods.And then, it is the Kun-Chu highway that the survey of traffic flow detection will focus on, thus getting relevant statistic. Finally, findings will be made about the traffic flow detection of Kun-Chu highway.
2. Deep research will be made on traffic volume of Kun-Chu highway. At first, it focuses the prediction method of Kun-Chu highway traffic volume on"four-stage method", which nails down the basic theory, content, and procedures; And then, this chapter will apply the "four-stage method" to analyze the relevant date of Kun-Chu highway to forecast the traffic volume of Kun-Chu highway. By doing this, it predicts the predictive figure of traffic volume at different section in the typical years.
3. Analysis will be made on the capacity and service level. Firstly, this chapter will identify the calculation method of the basic section in Kun-Chu highway, clearing service level classification, proposing primary indexes on the evaluation of service level; And then, there will be an analysis of the capacity and service level of Kun-Chu highway based on the result of the predictive traffic volume of it, thus getting the service level grade on various section of Kun-Chu highway in the following typical years.
This paper is a part of traffic science and technology projects in Yunnan Province, The Study of Post Evaluation and Index System on High-Grade Pavement in Yunnan.
本文旨在通过对昆楚高速公路交通量预测和服务水平分析研究,寻找一种适合我国高速公路交通量预测和服务水平分析的方法,为交通量预测和服务水平分析研究给予一定的建议与帮助,促进高速公路建设项目的健康、稳定、快速发展。主要内容如下：
1、对昆楚高速公路交通流基本参数调查进行分析研究。首先,确定了昆楚高速公路交通流调查参数和调查方法,并针对昆楚高速公路组织安排交通流参数调查,得出相关数据；最后,给出昆楚高速公路交通流基本参数调查结论。
2、对昆楚高速公路交通量预测进行分析研究。首先,确定了昆楚高速公路交通量预测的方法——“四阶段”法,明确了预测的基本理论、内容和程序；最后,结合昆楚高速公路相关数据,应用“四阶段”法对昆楚高速公路进行交通量预测,得到未来特征年昆楚高速公路各路段的交通量预测值。
3、对昆楚高速公路的通行能力与服务水平进行分析研究。首先,确定了昆楚高速公路基本路段通行能力的计算方法,明确了服务水平的分级标准,提出了评价服务水平的主要指标；最后,在昆楚高速公路交通量预测结果的基础上,对该高速公路进行了通行能力计算和服务水平分析,得到未来特征年昆楚高速公路各路段服务水平等级。
本文是云南省交通科技项目《云南省高等级公路建设后评价及指标体系研究》的研究内容之一。
Traffic volume prediction and service level analysis are the most important components of the post evaluation, which, based on the existing date, does the research to analyze and to predict the traffic volume and service level in the future. We can find out whether the prediction, assessment and conclusion of the traffic volume in the feasibility study of road projects is correct or not by the comparison of it and feasibility study report, and by analyzing the reasons and learning lessons, there will be a basis for the improvement of road projects feasibility study and similar projects policy decision and construction. Traffic volume prediction and service level analysis investment decisions are efficient method to improve the highway investment and decision making and management. Besides, it is significant and meaningful to the highway planning and post evolution after it's building.
This paper aims at analyzing traffic volume prediction and service level analysis of Kun-Chu highway, trying to find out a method that suits traffic volume prediction and service level analysis in our country, hoping to give some advice and assistance in traffic prediction and service level analysis, and to promote the health, stable and rapid development of highway construction projects. Contents are as follows:
1. Analysis will be made on traffic flow detection of Kun-Chu highway. At first, it introduces the concept of traffic flow detection and survey methods.And then, it is the Kun-Chu highway that the survey of traffic flow detection will focus on, thus getting relevant statistic. Finally, findings will be made about the traffic flow detection of Kun-Chu highway.
2. Deep research will be made on traffic volume of Kun-Chu highway. At first, it focuses the prediction method of Kun-Chu highway traffic volume on"four-stage method", which nails down the basic theory, content, and procedures; And then, this chapter will apply the "four-stage method" to analyze the relevant date of Kun-Chu highway to forecast the traffic volume of Kun-Chu highway. By doing this, it predicts the predictive figure of traffic volume at different section in the typical years.
3. Analysis will be made on the capacity and service level. Firstly, this chapter will identify the calculation method of the basic section in Kun-Chu highway, clearing service level classification, proposing primary indexes on the evaluation of service level; And then, there will be an analysis of the capacity and service level of Kun-Chu highway based on the result of the predictive traffic volume of it, thus getting the service level grade on various section of Kun-Chu highway in the following typical years.
This paper is a part of traffic science and technology projects in Yunnan Province, The Study of Post Evaluation and Index System on High-Grade Pavement in Yunnan.
引文
[1]Special Report 87.Highway Capacity Manual. Washington DC:TRB, National Research Council. 1965.10-26
[2]Special Report 87.Highway Capacity Manual. Third edition. Washington D C:TRB, National Research Council.1994.10-38
[3]杰拉尔.山区高速公路连续上坡路段通行能力与服务水平研究[J]《长安大学硕士论文》,2007
[4]吴瑞麟.谈高速公路路段通行能力分析方法—兼议美国HCM第三版及其修订版的差异性[J].武汉城市建设学院学报.1998(4)
[5]许志红.浅析高速公路服务水平体系[J].南宁：大众科技,2005
[6]吴怀宇著.时间序列分析与综合[M].武汉：武汉大学出版社,2004：90-95
[7]王建军,严宝杰.交通调查与分析[M].北京：人民交通出版社,2004.8
[8]王炜,过秀成等编著.交通工程学[M]南京：东南大学出版社,2000
[9]中华人民共和国交通部,JTG BO1-2003,公路工程技术标准,北京人民交通出版社,2004
[10]马骏著.交通流理论基础[M].北京：中国人民公安大学出版社,2004：92-96
[11]张业平,张起森,控制出入公路车辆折算系数研究[J],长沙交通学院学报,2000
[12]荣建,任福田,石嘉玉.基于高速公路通行能力分析的车辆折算系数理论与算法[J],交通工程,1999.1：71-76
[13]熊烈强.交通流理论及其在高速公路中的应用研究田[D].武汉：武汉理工大学,2003
[14]Brian L.Smith, Billy M.Williams, R.Keith Oswald.Comparison of parametric and nonparametric models[J]. Transportation Research Part C,2002(10):303-321
[15]单文胜,宋文.浅谈公路项目诱增和转移交通量的预测方法[J].交通标准化,2006(12)
[16]王维凤,林航飞,陈小鸿.对高速公路流量预测中两个核心问题的探讨[J].中国公路学报,2001(14)：77-80
[17]沈志云,邓学钧.交通运输工程学[M].北京：人民交通出版社,2003.8
[18]陆化普,黄海军.交通规划理论研究前沿[M].北京：清华大学出版社,2007.4
[19]孟祥海.高速公路规划设计与管理[M].哈尔滨：哈尔滨工业大学出版社,2006.8： 23-44
[20]马骏著.交通流理论基础[M].北京：中国人民公安大学出版社,2004：92-96
[21]王晖,贾元华.交通量与经济量弹性关系的系统分析[J].交通运输工程与信息.2004.4(1)
[22]王军,许宏科.基于BP神经网络的高速公路动态交通流预测[J].重庆：公路交通技术,2007,2(1)： 150-152,163
[23]赵朋宾,张潇的.高速公路项目的交通量预测方法探讨[J].交通与运输,2007,(7)
[24]罗莉.基于风险分析的高速公路交通量预测模型[J].中外公路,2007.6
[25]刘静,关伟.交通流预测方法综述[J].公路交通科技,2004.121(13)： 82-85
[26]张磊.浅谈“四阶段法”在交通量预测中的应用[J].山西交通科技,2001(8)：54-55
[27]肖旭,贾元华.高速公路交通量预测模型与系统技术实现研究[D].北京：北京交通大学,2004
[28]周伟,王秉刚,路段通行能力的理论探讨[J],交通运输工程学报,
[29]周刚,常成利,高速公路收费站通行能力研究[J],公路交通科技2001,18(3)：56-59
[30]陈宽民,严宝杰,道路通行能力分析[M],北京：人民交通出版社,2003
[31]周伟,王秉刚服务水平与服务交通量的确定原理与方法研究[J].中国公路学报2001.14(2)：90-95
[32]贾元华,董平如著.高速公路建设与管理[M].北京：北方交通大学出版社,2002
[33]常成利,周刚,高速公路路段通行能力分析方法的探讨与实践[J],公路交通科技,2003,4：68-72
[34]谢瑞珑.广东省高速公路基本路段通行能力研究[D].哈尔滨：哈尔滨工业大学,2002.
[35]张云颜,李文权高速公路入口匝道通行能力模型研究[J],交通运输工程与信息学报,2004,2(3)：88-92
[36]Shuyan Chen; Yanhuai Zhou; Wei.Short-term traffic volume time series based on phase space reconstruction[J]. Machine learning and cybernetics. Volume6,2005. pages:3585-3588 forecasting 18-21 Aug.
[37]Ahmed F. Al-Kaisy, Fred L.Hall, Emi 1y S.Reisman, Developing passenger car equivalents for heavy vehicles on freeways during queue discharge flow[J], Transportation Research Part A 36 (2002): 725-742
[38]申景亮,贾元华.我国高速公路交通服务水平判定方法研究田[D].北京：北京交通大学,2006
[39]熊烈强.交通流理论及其在高速公路中的应用研究田[D].武汉：武汉理工大学,2003
[2]Special Report 87.Highway Capacity Manual. Third edition. Washington D C:TRB, National Research Council.1994.10-38
[3]杰拉尔.山区高速公路连续上坡路段通行能力与服务水平研究[J]《长安大学硕士论文》,2007
[4]吴瑞麟.谈高速公路路段通行能力分析方法—兼议美国HCM第三版及其修订版的差异性[J].武汉城市建设学院学报.1998(4)
[5]许志红.浅析高速公路服务水平体系[J].南宁：大众科技,2005
[6]吴怀宇著.时间序列分析与综合[M].武汉：武汉大学出版社,2004：90-95
[7]王建军,严宝杰.交通调查与分析[M].北京：人民交通出版社,2004.8
[8]王炜,过秀成等编著.交通工程学[M]南京：东南大学出版社,2000
[9]中华人民共和国交通部,JTG BO1-2003,公路工程技术标准,北京人民交通出版社,2004
[10]马骏著.交通流理论基础[M].北京：中国人民公安大学出版社,2004：92-96
[11]张业平,张起森,控制出入公路车辆折算系数研究[J],长沙交通学院学报,2000
[12]荣建,任福田,石嘉玉.基于高速公路通行能力分析的车辆折算系数理论与算法[J],交通工程,1999.1：71-76
[13]熊烈强.交通流理论及其在高速公路中的应用研究田[D].武汉：武汉理工大学,2003
[14]Brian L.Smith, Billy M.Williams, R.Keith Oswald.Comparison of parametric and nonparametric models[J]. Transportation Research Part C,2002(10):303-321
[15]单文胜,宋文.浅谈公路项目诱增和转移交通量的预测方法[J].交通标准化,2006(12)
[16]王维凤,林航飞,陈小鸿.对高速公路流量预测中两个核心问题的探讨[J].中国公路学报,2001(14)：77-80
[17]沈志云,邓学钧.交通运输工程学[M].北京：人民交通出版社,2003.8
[18]陆化普,黄海军.交通规划理论研究前沿[M].北京：清华大学出版社,2007.4
[19]孟祥海.高速公路规划设计与管理[M].哈尔滨：哈尔滨工业大学出版社,2006.8： 23-44
[20]马骏著.交通流理论基础[M].北京：中国人民公安大学出版社,2004：92-96
[21]王晖,贾元华.交通量与经济量弹性关系的系统分析[J].交通运输工程与信息.2004.4(1)
[22]王军,许宏科.基于BP神经网络的高速公路动态交通流预测[J].重庆：公路交通技术,2007,2(1)： 150-152,163
[23]赵朋宾,张潇的.高速公路项目的交通量预测方法探讨[J].交通与运输,2007,(7)
[24]罗莉.基于风险分析的高速公路交通量预测模型[J].中外公路,2007.6
[25]刘静,关伟.交通流预测方法综述[J].公路交通科技,2004.121(13)： 82-85
[26]张磊.浅谈“四阶段法”在交通量预测中的应用[J].山西交通科技,2001(8)：54-55
[27]肖旭,贾元华.高速公路交通量预测模型与系统技术实现研究[D].北京：北京交通大学,2004
[28]周伟,王秉刚,路段通行能力的理论探讨[J],交通运输工程学报,
[29]周刚,常成利,高速公路收费站通行能力研究[J],公路交通科技2001,18(3)：56-59
[30]陈宽民,严宝杰,道路通行能力分析[M],北京：人民交通出版社,2003
[31]周伟,王秉刚服务水平与服务交通量的确定原理与方法研究[J].中国公路学报2001.14(2)：90-95
[32]贾元华,董平如著.高速公路建设与管理[M].北京：北方交通大学出版社,2002
[33]常成利,周刚,高速公路路段通行能力分析方法的探讨与实践[J],公路交通科技,2003,4：68-72
[34]谢瑞珑.广东省高速公路基本路段通行能力研究[D].哈尔滨：哈尔滨工业大学,2002.
[35]张云颜,李文权高速公路入口匝道通行能力模型研究[J],交通运输工程与信息学报,2004,2(3)：88-92
[36]Shuyan Chen; Yanhuai Zhou; Wei.Short-term traffic volume time series based on phase space reconstruction[J]. Machine learning and cybernetics. Volume6,2005. pages:3585-3588 forecasting 18-21 Aug.
[37]Ahmed F. Al-Kaisy, Fred L.Hall, Emi 1y S.Reisman, Developing passenger car equivalents for heavy vehicles on freeways during queue discharge flow[J], Transportation Research Part A 36 (2002): 725-742
[38]申景亮,贾元华.我国高速公路交通服务水平判定方法研究田[D].北京：北京交通大学,2006
[39]熊烈强.交通流理论及其在高速公路中的应用研究田[D].武汉：武汉理工大学,2003