区域气候模式中陆面水文过程优化及应用研究
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摘要
20世纪以来,全球气候变化和人类活动的影响使水循环的时空演变规律发生了变化,从而加剧了某些地区的洪涝和干旱灾害。研究气候变化与水循环之间的响应关系,对水资源的可持续开发利用、缓解水资源的供需矛盾等问题具有重要的科学意义。
区域气候模式RegCM3对区域气候具有较好的模拟能力,但在不同地区的有着不同的模拟精度。为进一步提高气候模拟精度,需要结合区域下垫面条件和环流动力特征进行参数优化。本研究以区域气候模式RegCM3为模拟工具,以南水北调西线工程水源区(长江宜宾以上流域)为研究靶区,针对水源区的具体特征进行了物理参数方案优化,并结合RegCM3中陆面模式BATS对产汇流过程描述的不足,采用分布式水文模型WEP中的产汇流计算方案对其优化,构建起适合本区的气候.水文耦合模拟模型。以此为支撑,通过设置不同CO_2排放和下垫面情景,剖析全球变化和人类活动对区域气候及水循环与水资源的影响。
研究结果表明:①通过参数化方案和侧边界初始场选取的对比试验,确定了采用Grell积云对流参数化方案和NRA资料作为侧边界初始场,可以获得较为真实的模拟结果。②引进WEP产汇流方案后,模拟的气温、降水和径流都比原来方案更加接近观测场:③CO_2加倍后水源区近地面气温普遍升高、降水和径流(尤其是夏季)增加;④草地退化后水源区的气候将会出现暖干化的趋势,具体表现为使地表温度升高,而降水和径流都有一定减少。
通过对陆面水文过程的优化增强了区域气候模式对水文过程的数值模拟能力,这对进一步研究全球变化和人类活动干扰背景下的气候-水文-生态之间的相互影响机制具有十分重大的理论意义和实践意义。
Since the twentieth century,due to the global warming and the negative affections caused by human activities,the hydrological cycle on the earth has changed.At the same time the drought and flood envents in some area are strengthened.There is a great significance to study the relationship between the climate change and the hydrological cycle.
It has been proved that there are great advantages and foreground of Regional Climate Model in the area of regional climate simulation.But due to the different land-surface features and circumfluence characteristics,there would present distinguishing simulation effects by the choosing of different parameters.Consequently,it was needed to optimize the parameters to get a suited numerical simulation scheme. Aimed at the characteristics of the simulation domain,especially the shortage of runoff routing calculation in BATS model,the corresponding method of WEP was introduced.With the tools of Regional Climate Model,a basin-scale climate-hydrology coupling simulation model has been set up,which is particularly proper to the Source Region of the West-route of South-to-North Water Transfer Project(the upper Yibin area of Yangze river basin).On the basis of the coupling model,to research the impact of greenhouse gas and land surface change in simulation domain,two experiments were carried out:doubling the density of CO_2 and changing the land cover type.
Through this study,conclusions are drawn as follows:①A more accurate result would be obtained by taking Grell as convective precipitation scheme and using NRA data to drive the model.②The simulated temperature,precipitation,and runoff will more closely to the real under the substituted runoff methods;③The surface temperature, precipitation,and runoff(especially in summer) will raise,if the density of CO_2 is doubled;④The climate of the research region will trend to warm and drought after grassland degradation.
The simulation precision of RegCM was enhanced by the optimization of the land surface hydrological process,which is a key point to the research of climate-hydrology-ecology interactions and influencing mechanism under the climate change and affections of human activities on both theory and practice.
区域气候模式RegCM3对区域气候具有较好的模拟能力,但在不同地区的有着不同的模拟精度。为进一步提高气候模拟精度,需要结合区域下垫面条件和环流动力特征进行参数优化。本研究以区域气候模式RegCM3为模拟工具,以南水北调西线工程水源区(长江宜宾以上流域)为研究靶区,针对水源区的具体特征进行了物理参数方案优化,并结合RegCM3中陆面模式BATS对产汇流过程描述的不足,采用分布式水文模型WEP中的产汇流计算方案对其优化,构建起适合本区的气候.水文耦合模拟模型。以此为支撑,通过设置不同CO_2排放和下垫面情景,剖析全球变化和人类活动对区域气候及水循环与水资源的影响。
研究结果表明:①通过参数化方案和侧边界初始场选取的对比试验,确定了采用Grell积云对流参数化方案和NRA资料作为侧边界初始场,可以获得较为真实的模拟结果。②引进WEP产汇流方案后,模拟的气温、降水和径流都比原来方案更加接近观测场:③CO_2加倍后水源区近地面气温普遍升高、降水和径流(尤其是夏季)增加;④草地退化后水源区的气候将会出现暖干化的趋势,具体表现为使地表温度升高,而降水和径流都有一定减少。
通过对陆面水文过程的优化增强了区域气候模式对水文过程的数值模拟能力,这对进一步研究全球变化和人类活动干扰背景下的气候-水文-生态之间的相互影响机制具有十分重大的理论意义和实践意义。
Since the twentieth century,due to the global warming and the negative affections caused by human activities,the hydrological cycle on the earth has changed.At the same time the drought and flood envents in some area are strengthened.There is a great significance to study the relationship between the climate change and the hydrological cycle.
It has been proved that there are great advantages and foreground of Regional Climate Model in the area of regional climate simulation.But due to the different land-surface features and circumfluence characteristics,there would present distinguishing simulation effects by the choosing of different parameters.Consequently,it was needed to optimize the parameters to get a suited numerical simulation scheme. Aimed at the characteristics of the simulation domain,especially the shortage of runoff routing calculation in BATS model,the corresponding method of WEP was introduced.With the tools of Regional Climate Model,a basin-scale climate-hydrology coupling simulation model has been set up,which is particularly proper to the Source Region of the West-route of South-to-North Water Transfer Project(the upper Yibin area of Yangze river basin).On the basis of the coupling model,to research the impact of greenhouse gas and land surface change in simulation domain,two experiments were carried out:doubling the density of CO_2 and changing the land cover type.
Through this study,conclusions are drawn as follows:①A more accurate result would be obtained by taking Grell as convective precipitation scheme and using NRA data to drive the model.②The simulated temperature,precipitation,and runoff will more closely to the real under the substituted runoff methods;③The surface temperature, precipitation,and runoff(especially in summer) will raise,if the density of CO_2 is doubled;④The climate of the research region will trend to warm and drought after grassland degradation.
The simulation precision of RegCM was enhanced by the optimization of the land surface hydrological process,which is a key point to the research of climate-hydrology-ecology interactions and influencing mechanism under the climate change and affections of human activities on both theory and practice.
引文
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