三峡水库区域土地利用动态分析与变化趋势预测方法研究
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摘要
本文以三峡水库区域为研究对象,按照现状数据获取—动态分析—驱动机制探讨—变化趋势预测方法研究的路线展开理论应用研究与分析。
采用面向对象影像分类方法获取土地利用现状数据,通过对比研究,揭示该方法能够克服传统分类方法的不足,提高数据获取精度。通过区域生长和均值漂移分割算法的对比研究,表明运用均值漂移分割方法对研究区域影像进行分割的效果更好。
运用土地利用时空变化分析模型,从数量、速率、转移方向和区域差异四个方面对研究区域土地利用时空变化展开深入的分析,研究显示研究区域在2000-2004年间水域和城乡工矿居住用地在数量和速率变化均较大,距离三峡大坝较近乡县的土地利用类型区域差异大都比较显著。
针对土地利用驱动机制定量分析中样本点少、样本间常常具有多重相关性等问题,采用偏最小二乘回归模型进行分析,通过对比研究,揭示了该方法比普通最小二乘回归具有更好地驱动力解释能力。
采用马尔科夫预测模型对研究区域的土地利用变化趋势进行预测分析,结果表明研究区域水域和城乡工矿居住用地在短期内呈现逐渐增加趋势,林地、草地和耕地表现出逐渐减少的趋势,而未利用地的变化趋势为先逐渐增加后又逐渐减少。
The paper takes the Three Gorges Reservoir Area as research object, does theory application research and analysis according to the flow which is the status quo data acquisition - the analysis of the change characteristic - the discussion about driven mechanism - the study of the trend forecasting method.
Land use status quo data is obtained by object-oriented algorithm, which could overcome the defect of traditional algorithm and improve the precision of data acquisition. The region grow algorithm is compared with mean shift algorithm. The result indicates that the classification result is better by segmenting image of research area using mean shift algorithm.
The land use time-space change of research area is analyzed from number, speed, transfer direction and regional difference by using land use time-space analysis model, which indicates that the study region change of the land for water use and inhabitancy is bigger than other land type in 2000-2004, and the regional difference of land use is remarkable for the towns that shorter distance to the Three Gorges Dam.
Aim at that there are less sample and the serious relevance often is found between the sample, the partial least squares regression model is introduced, result shows that the method of the partial least squares regression could interpret the drive of the land use better than ordinary least squares by contrast .
The Markov forecasting model is utilized to analyze the land use change trend of research area, the result indicates that the land for water use and inhabitancy is increasing gradually in a short time, forest land, grassland and cultivated land show a decreasing trend year by year, the change trend of unused land is increasing gradually firstly and then reducing gradually.
采用面向对象影像分类方法获取土地利用现状数据,通过对比研究,揭示该方法能够克服传统分类方法的不足,提高数据获取精度。通过区域生长和均值漂移分割算法的对比研究,表明运用均值漂移分割方法对研究区域影像进行分割的效果更好。
运用土地利用时空变化分析模型,从数量、速率、转移方向和区域差异四个方面对研究区域土地利用时空变化展开深入的分析,研究显示研究区域在2000-2004年间水域和城乡工矿居住用地在数量和速率变化均较大,距离三峡大坝较近乡县的土地利用类型区域差异大都比较显著。
针对土地利用驱动机制定量分析中样本点少、样本间常常具有多重相关性等问题,采用偏最小二乘回归模型进行分析,通过对比研究,揭示了该方法比普通最小二乘回归具有更好地驱动力解释能力。
采用马尔科夫预测模型对研究区域的土地利用变化趋势进行预测分析,结果表明研究区域水域和城乡工矿居住用地在短期内呈现逐渐增加趋势,林地、草地和耕地表现出逐渐减少的趋势,而未利用地的变化趋势为先逐渐增加后又逐渐减少。
The paper takes the Three Gorges Reservoir Area as research object, does theory application research and analysis according to the flow which is the status quo data acquisition - the analysis of the change characteristic - the discussion about driven mechanism - the study of the trend forecasting method.
Land use status quo data is obtained by object-oriented algorithm, which could overcome the defect of traditional algorithm and improve the precision of data acquisition. The region grow algorithm is compared with mean shift algorithm. The result indicates that the classification result is better by segmenting image of research area using mean shift algorithm.
The land use time-space change of research area is analyzed from number, speed, transfer direction and regional difference by using land use time-space analysis model, which indicates that the study region change of the land for water use and inhabitancy is bigger than other land type in 2000-2004, and the regional difference of land use is remarkable for the towns that shorter distance to the Three Gorges Dam.
Aim at that there are less sample and the serious relevance often is found between the sample, the partial least squares regression model is introduced, result shows that the method of the partial least squares regression could interpret the drive of the land use better than ordinary least squares by contrast .
The Markov forecasting model is utilized to analyze the land use change trend of research area, the result indicates that the land for water use and inhabitancy is increasing gradually in a short time, forest land, grassland and cultivated land show a decreasing trend year by year, the change trend of unused land is increasing gradually firstly and then reducing gradually.
引文
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[30]王秀兰.土地利用/土地覆盖变化中的人口因素分析[J].资源科学,2002,(27)3:39~42.
[31]徐岚,赵羿.利用马尔科夫过程预测东陵区土地利用格局的变化[J].应用生态学报,1663,4(3):272~277
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[36]明冬萍,骆剑承,周成虎等.高分辨率遥感影像信息提取及块状基元特征提取研究[J].数据采集与处理.2005, 20(1):34~39.
[37] MASELLIF, RUDOLFA, CONESEC. Fuzzy classification of spatially degraded Thematic Mapper data for the estimation of sub-pixel components [J].International Journal of Remote Sensing , 1996, 17:537-551.
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[39] Caprioli M, Tarantino E. Urban Features Recognition from VHR Satellite Data with an Object-oriented Approach[A]. Proceedings of Commission IV Joint Workshop, Challenges in Geospatial Analysis, Integration and Visualization II, Stuttgart[C].Germany,September8-9,2003.
[40]黄慧萍,面向对象影像分析中的尺度问题研究[D],北京:中国科学研究院应用研究所博士论文,2003.5.
[41]章晋等.图像处理和分析[M].北京:清华大学出版社,1999.
[42] Defineiens Image GmbH. eCognition User Guide[M]. German,2004.60-165.
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[49]周芳芳,樊晓平等.均值漂移算法的研究与应用[J].控制与决,2007,22(8).841~487.
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[51]面向对象高分辨率遥感影像分类研究[J].遥感应用,2007,58(4):57~63.
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[2]蔡运龙.土地利用/土地覆被变化研究:寻求新的综合途径.地理研究,2001,20(6):645~651.
[3]王秀兰,包玉海.土地利用动态变化研究方法探讨.地理科学进展,1999,18(1):82~87.
[4]史培军,宫鹏,李晓兵等.土地利用/覆盖变化研究的方法和实践[M].北京,科学出版社,2000.
[5]刘英,赵荣钦.土地利用/覆盖变化研究的现状与趋势[J].河北师范大学学报,2004,28(3):310~315.
[6] Meyer W.B, Turner B.L. Changes in Land Use and Land Cover: A Global Perspective. Cambridge University Press.1994.
[7] Imbernon J. Pattern and development of land use changes in the Kinyan highlands since the 1950s[J]. Agric Ecos Environ,1999,76(1):67~73.
[8]李秀彬,全球环境变化的核心领域——土地利用/覆被变化的国际研究动向[J].地理科学报,1996,51(6):553~557.
[9] Kienast F. Analysis of historic landscape patterns with a geographical information system a methodological outlines [J].Landscape Ecology, 1993 , 8(2):103~108.
[10] Iverson LR. Land-use changes in Illinois, USA-The influence of landscape attributes on current and historic landuse [J]. Landscape Ecology, 1988, 2(1):45~61.
[11] Boerner RE. Markov models of inertia and dynamism on two contiguous Ohio landscape[J]. Analysis, 1996,28(1):55~56.
[12] Kasperson RE,Turner BL. Regions at risk-comparisons of threatened environments[J].Tokyo,New York,Paris:United Nations University Press,1995.
[13] Ehrich BL and G.C.Daily, Population extinction and saving boi-diversity [J]. Ambio, 1993, 22(2-3): 64~68.
[14] Turner BL, Clark WC, Kates RW et al.1990. The earth as transformed by human action-global and regional changed in the biosphere over the past 300 years.Cambridge, New York, Port Chester, Melbourne, Sidney: Cambridge University Press with Clark University.
[15] Fischer G,Ermoliev Y, et al. Simulating the socio-economic and biogeophysical driving forces of land-use and land-cover change: the IIASA Land-Use Change Model, WP-96-010. Laxenburg, IIASA,1996.
[16]董玉祥,全洪,张青年等.大比例尺土地利用更新调查技术与方法[M].北京,科学出版社,2004,148~149.
[17] Clarke K.C and Gaydos L.J 1998. Loose-coupling a cellular automation model and GIS: long-term urban growth prediction for San Fransisco and Washington Baltimore[J].
[18] Kasper Kok, Free de Koning, Johan Bouma 2000. Possibilities of land use modeling at the supra-national scale: the case of Central America[J].GIS/EM4 No. 163. 4th International Conference on Integrating GIS and Environmental Modeling(GIS/EM4):Problems, Prospects and Research Needs, Banff,Alberta, Canada, September 2-8.
[19] Bryan C. Pijianowski,Daniel G. 2002. Using neural networks and GIS to forecast land use changes: a Land Transformation Model[J]. Computers, Environment and Urban Systems,26:553~575.
[20] Laney R.M. 2004. A process-led approach to modeling land change in agricultural landscapes: a case study from Madagascar[J]. Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment 101: 135~153.
[21]顾朝林.北京市土地利用/覆被变化机制研究[J].自然资源学报,1999,14(4):307~312.
[22]杨桂山.长江三角洲近50年耕地数量变化的过程与驱动机制研究[J].自然资源学报, 2001,11(6):400~401.
[23]史纪安,陈利顶.榆林地区土地利用/土地覆被变化区域特征及驱动力机制分析[J].地理科学,2003,23(4):493~498.
[24]曹银贵,王静等.三峡库区近30年土地利用时空变化特征分析[J].测绘科学,2007,32(6):167~170.
[25]王思远,刘纪元等.中国土地利用时空特征分析[J].地理学报,2001,56(6):631~369.
[26]刘胜和,何书金.土地利用动态变化的空间分析测算模型[J].自然资源学报,2002,17(5):533~540.
[27]史培军,陈晋,潘耀忠.深圳市土地利用变化机制分析[J]地理学报,2000,55(2):151~160.
[28]庄大方,邓祥等.北京市土地利用变化的空间分布特征[J].地理研究,2002,21(6):667~674.
[29]张明.区域土地利用结构及其驱动因子的统计分析-以榆林地区为例[J].自然资源学报.1999,14(4):381~384.
[30]王秀兰.土地利用/土地覆盖变化中的人口因素分析[J].资源科学,2002,(27)3:39~42.
[31]徐岚,赵羿.利用马尔科夫过程预测东陵区土地利用格局的变化[J].应用生态学报,1663,4(3):272~277
[32]张永民,赵士洞等.CLUE-S模型及其奈曼旗土地利用时空动态变化模拟中的应用[J].自然资源学报,2003,18(3):310~318.
[33]摆万奇.深圳市土地利用动态趋势分析[J].自然资源学报,2000,15(2):112~116.
[34]龙花楼,李秀彬.长江沿线样带土地利用变化时空模拟及其对策地理研究[J].2001,20(6):660~668.
[35]赵英时等.遥感应用分析原理与方法[M].北京,科学出版社.2006.
[36]明冬萍,骆剑承,周成虎等.高分辨率遥感影像信息提取及块状基元特征提取研究[J].数据采集与处理.2005, 20(1):34~39.
[37] MASELLIF, RUDOLFA, CONESEC. Fuzzy classification of spatially degraded Thematic Mapper data for the estimation of sub-pixel components [J].International Journal of Remote Sensing , 1996, 17:537-551.
[38]骆剑承,梁怡,周成虎.基于尺度空间的分层聚类方法及其在遥感图像分类中的作用[J].测绘学报, 1999,28(4):319-324.
[39] Caprioli M, Tarantino E. Urban Features Recognition from VHR Satellite Data with an Object-oriented Approach[A]. Proceedings of Commission IV Joint Workshop, Challenges in Geospatial Analysis, Integration and Visualization II, Stuttgart[C].Germany,September8-9,2003.
[40]黄慧萍,面向对象影像分析中的尺度问题研究[D],北京:中国科学研究院应用研究所博士论文,2003.5.
[41]章晋等.图像处理和分析[M].北京:清华大学出版社,1999.
[42] Defineiens Image GmbH. eCognition User Guide[M]. German,2004.60-165.
[47]童庆喜,张兵,郑兰芬.高光谱遥感—原理、技术与应用[M].北京:高等教育出版社,2006.
[48]陈忠.高分辨率遥感图像分类技术研究[D].中国科学研究院,博士学位论文,2006.
[49]周芳芳,樊晓平等.均值漂移算法的研究与应用[J].控制与决,2007,22(8).841~487.
[50]莫登奎.中高分辨率遥感影像分割与信息提取研究[D].中南林业科技大学,2006.
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