垃圾焚烧发电BOT项目风险实证研究
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摘要
焚烧发电作为一种城市生活垃圾处理方式,近几年在我国迅速发展起来。焚烧发电不仅可以有效解决城市生活垃圾无处堆放所带来的环境问题,而且能够带来丰厚的经济效益。由于我国对相关技术的研发和应用起步较晚,加之地方政府财力不足,BOT(Build-Operate-Transfer)模式成为我国建设垃圾焚烧发电项目的发展趋势。
然而,从已运营项目和在建项目实际情况来看,许多垃圾焚烧发电BOT项目在运作过程中出现一些问题。由于社会公众对垃圾焚烧发电项目不了解,政府宣传不到位,以及政府方在择址时论证不充分等问题,导致项目签约后遭到周边居民抵制;费用支付不及时、政府监管不到位、企业技术和管理水平低等问题日益凸显。由于缺乏实际经验和完备的理论指导,政府方和项目公司的特许经营协议不完备,特别是政府方与项目公司的风险分担不合理是其中的主要原因。
本文采用了案例研究与实证研究相结合、定性研究和定量研究相结合的方法。
通过对国内外该领域文献与案例的分析总结,从三个不同维度初步总结出垃圾焚烧发电BOT项目的风险,在此基础上进行了专家访谈,对于初步识别的风险作出进一步的分类、筛选、修正,最终形成城市生活垃圾焚烧发电BOT项目的风险要素集。
通过实证研究,识别出了影响城市垃圾焚烧发电BOT项目的10个关键风险:政府决策风险、法律不完善风险、技术风险、完工风险、垃圾供应风险、招标风险、设计变更风险、收益及成本变化风险、运营与维护风险以及费用支付风险,并且对政府方和项目公司对关键风险的分担情况进行了实证分析。
在实证分析的基础上,对关键风险以及政府方和项目公司的风险分担情况进行了定性分析,并结合某市生活垃圾焚烧发电BOT项目,提出了城市生活垃圾焚烧发电BOT项目的风险应对建议。
Refuse-incineration power generation has developed rapidly in recent years in China. Incineration for power can not only effectively solve environmental problems caused by urban living refuse, and can bring substantial economic benefits. Because of a late start of China's research and development of related technologies and application, coupled with insufficient financial resources of local government, BOT model has become the trend of the project construction.
However, from the already operational projects and projects under construction, some problems arise in the process. As the public do not understand the refuse-incineration power generation projects, the government's campaign is not in place and the Government's wrong decision when choosing the location, such issues leading to resistance of the surrounding residents after signing the contract. Fee payment is not timely, government regulation is not in place, technology and management problems have become increasingly prominent. Because of lack of practical experience and theoretical guidance, franchise agreement between the government and the project company is incompletely. One of the main reasons is the unreasonable risk allocation of the government and the project company.
In this paper, case studies are combined with empirical research , qualitative research are also combined with quantitative research method.
Through the analysis of literatures and case summary, we get the preliminary summary of the risks from three different dimensions. Then based on expert interviews, after further classification, screening, amendments of the preliminary summary of the risks, we get the final formation of risk factors of the municipal solid waste incineration power generation BOT projects.
Ten key risks which impact BOT projects of refuse-incineration power generation have been identified by using SPSS and STATA. And all these risks are classified taken by government, project companies and shared between the two parts. At last, the strategies on risk prevention have been analyzed for urban waste incineration power generation BOT projects.
然而,从已运营项目和在建项目实际情况来看,许多垃圾焚烧发电BOT项目在运作过程中出现一些问题。由于社会公众对垃圾焚烧发电项目不了解,政府宣传不到位,以及政府方在择址时论证不充分等问题,导致项目签约后遭到周边居民抵制;费用支付不及时、政府监管不到位、企业技术和管理水平低等问题日益凸显。由于缺乏实际经验和完备的理论指导,政府方和项目公司的特许经营协议不完备,特别是政府方与项目公司的风险分担不合理是其中的主要原因。
本文采用了案例研究与实证研究相结合、定性研究和定量研究相结合的方法。
通过对国内外该领域文献与案例的分析总结,从三个不同维度初步总结出垃圾焚烧发电BOT项目的风险,在此基础上进行了专家访谈,对于初步识别的风险作出进一步的分类、筛选、修正,最终形成城市生活垃圾焚烧发电BOT项目的风险要素集。
通过实证研究,识别出了影响城市垃圾焚烧发电BOT项目的10个关键风险:政府决策风险、法律不完善风险、技术风险、完工风险、垃圾供应风险、招标风险、设计变更风险、收益及成本变化风险、运营与维护风险以及费用支付风险,并且对政府方和项目公司对关键风险的分担情况进行了实证分析。
在实证分析的基础上,对关键风险以及政府方和项目公司的风险分担情况进行了定性分析,并结合某市生活垃圾焚烧发电BOT项目,提出了城市生活垃圾焚烧发电BOT项目的风险应对建议。
Refuse-incineration power generation has developed rapidly in recent years in China. Incineration for power can not only effectively solve environmental problems caused by urban living refuse, and can bring substantial economic benefits. Because of a late start of China's research and development of related technologies and application, coupled with insufficient financial resources of local government, BOT model has become the trend of the project construction.
However, from the already operational projects and projects under construction, some problems arise in the process. As the public do not understand the refuse-incineration power generation projects, the government's campaign is not in place and the Government's wrong decision when choosing the location, such issues leading to resistance of the surrounding residents after signing the contract. Fee payment is not timely, government regulation is not in place, technology and management problems have become increasingly prominent. Because of lack of practical experience and theoretical guidance, franchise agreement between the government and the project company is incompletely. One of the main reasons is the unreasonable risk allocation of the government and the project company.
In this paper, case studies are combined with empirical research , qualitative research are also combined with quantitative research method.
Through the analysis of literatures and case summary, we get the preliminary summary of the risks from three different dimensions. Then based on expert interviews, after further classification, screening, amendments of the preliminary summary of the risks, we get the final formation of risk factors of the municipal solid waste incineration power generation BOT projects.
Ten key risks which impact BOT projects of refuse-incineration power generation have been identified by using SPSS and STATA. And all these risks are classified taken by government, project companies and shared between the two parts. At last, the strategies on risk prevention have been analyzed for urban waste incineration power generation BOT projects.
引文
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[27]龙化良.BOT高速公路风险分担机制研究.长沙理工大学硕士研究生学位论文,2008,3.
[28]肖条军,盛昭潮,周品.交通BOT项目投资的对策分析[J].基建优化,2002,(4):7-8
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[32]Li,B.,Akintoye,A.,Edwards,P.J.,Hardcastle,C,The allocation of risk in PPP/PFI construction projects in the UK[J].International Journal of Project Management,2005,23(1):25-35.
[33]Roumboutsos,A.,Anagnostopoulos,K.P.Public-private partnership projects in Greece.Risk ranking and preferred risk allocation[J].Construction Management and Economics,2008,26(7):751-763.
[34]Jin,X.H.,Doloi,H.Interpreting risk allocation mechanism in public-private partnership projects:an empirical study in a transaction cost economics perspective[J].Construction Management and Economics,2008,26(7):707-721.
[35]Yongjian Ke,ShouQing Wang,Albert P.C.Chan,Patrick T.I.Lam.Preferred risk allocation in China's public-private partnership(PPP) projects[J],InternationalJournalof Project Management,2009(08):7
[36]Jong H.Ock,Seung H.Han,Hyung K.Park.Diekmann.Improving decision quality:a risk-based go/no-go decision for build-operate-transfer(BOT) projects,http://cjce.nrc.ca,2005.5.31
[37]刘希伟.BOT项目前期的风险分析[J].价值工程,2008(9):123-135
[38]张宝峰.垃圾发电的优势及存在问题[J].西北电力技术,2005(3):42-44.
[39]Shou Qing Wang,Robert L.K.Tiong,Seng Kiong Ting,David Ashley.Political risks:analysis of key contract clauses in China's BOT project[J].Journal of construction engineering and management,1999(5):191-196
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[42]S.Q.WANG,ROBERT L.K.TIONG,S.K.TING,D.ASHLEY.Evaluation and management of foreign exchange and revenue risks in China's BOT projects[J].Construction Management and Economics,2000(18):197-207
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[54]Robert L.K.Tiong.Risks and guarantees in BOT tenders[J].Journal of construction engineering and management,1995(6):183-187
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[56]陈晓红,夏琳,苏英.我国BOT项目中政治风险的识别和管理[J].建筑经济,2009(5):38-41
[2]曾祥耙.城市生活垃圾焚烧发电前景乐观[J].环境卫生工程,2007(1):35-36.
[3]秦宇飞,白焰,王潇,等.城市生活垃圾发电的电力市场分析[J].电力学报,2008,23(5):353-356
[4]陈善平,刘峰,孙向军.城市生活垃圾焚烧发电市场现状[J].环境卫生工程,2009,17(1):20-22
[5]何志武,帅建强,唐龙.垃圾焚烧发电产业BOT运作模式的政策评估[J].重庆科技学院学报(社会科学版),2009(2):101-102
[6]王芳,胡丽华.BOT模式在垃圾焚烧发电项目中的应用研究[J].集团经济研究,2007,7:301-302
[7]邱青云,石立成,王世宁.铁路工程建设项目风险管理[J].国防交通工程与技术,2004,(2):8-9.
[8]卢有杰.项目风险管理[J].中国投资与建设,1997,(1):5-8.
[9]范江城.BOT项目融资中的风险识别与管理[J].施工技术,2005,(8):69-70.
[10]尹志军,陈立文,王双正.我国工程项目风险管理进展研究[J].基建优化,2002,(4):7-8.
[11]刘金兰,韩文秀,李光泉.大型工程建设项目风险分析方法及应用[J].系统工程理论与实践,1996,(8):63-54
[12]许谨良.风险管理[M].北京:中国金融出版社,2003.
[13]Xing W,Wu F F.A game-theoretical model of private power production[J].Electrical Power and Energy Systems,2001,23(3):213-218.
[14]Darrin Grimsey,Mervyn K.Lewis.Evaluating the risks of public private partnerships for infrastructure projects[J].International Journal of Project Management,2002,2,20(2):107-118
[15]Antonio Dias Jr,Photios G.Ionannou.A desirability model for the development of privately-promoted infrastructure projects[J].UMCEE ReplNo 95-09,Vol 1&2,Civ and EnvirEngrg Dept.Univ of Michigan,Ann Arbor,1995.
[16]Robert L.KTiong.BOT projects:Risks and securities[J].Construction Management and Economics,1990,8:315-328.
[17]董宝珍.BOT模式用于中国城镇污水处理厂里设探讨[J].北方环境,2002,3:40-42.
[18]吴建.城镇污水处理厂BOT项目运作程序及风险管理[J].农机化研究,2004,3:187-190.
[19]宋志东.BOT融资中的风险分担及合同管理[J].吉林省经济管理干部学院学报.2004,2,18(1):28-31
[20]蹇兴超.城市污水处理厂建设和运营的服务费计算方法[J].产业与市场,2003,3:62-64.
[21]Patrick X.W.Zou,Guomin Zhang,Jiayuan Wang.Understanding the key risks in construction projects in China[J].International Journal of Project Management,2007,(25):610-614
[22]叶苏东.BOT项目主要风险的管理研究[J].项目管理技术,2008,6(8):26-31
[23]于英慧.基于风险分担的BOT项目特许定价模型研究.大连理工大学硕士研究生学位论文,2005,3.
[24]孙淑云.高速公路BOT项目特许定价的关键风险分担研究.大连理工大学硕士研究生学位论文,2006,6.
[25]史旗凯.论BOT项目的风险分担及风险管理.郑州航空工业管理学院学报,2005,23(3):109-112
[26]何伯森,万彩芸.BOT项目的风险分担与合同管理[J].中国港湾建设,2001,(5):63-66.
[27]龙化良.BOT高速公路风险分担机制研究.长沙理工大学硕士研究生学位论文,2008,3.
[28]肖条军,盛昭潮,周品.交通BOT项目投资的对策分析[J].基建优化,2002,(4):7-8
[29]赵超恩.电力BOT项目的风险分担[J].中国电力企业管理,2007,7:19.
[30]Abednego,M.P.,Ogunlana,S.O..Good project governance for proper risk allocation in public-private partnerships in Indonesia[J].International Journal of Project Management,2006,24(7):622-634.
[31]Ng,A.,Loosemore,M.Risk allocation in the private provision of public infrastructure[J].International Journal of Project Management,2007,25(1):66-76.
[32]Li,B.,Akintoye,A.,Edwards,P.J.,Hardcastle,C,The allocation of risk in PPP/PFI construction projects in the UK[J].International Journal of Project Management,2005,23(1):25-35.
[33]Roumboutsos,A.,Anagnostopoulos,K.P.Public-private partnership projects in Greece.Risk ranking and preferred risk allocation[J].Construction Management and Economics,2008,26(7):751-763.
[34]Jin,X.H.,Doloi,H.Interpreting risk allocation mechanism in public-private partnership projects:an empirical study in a transaction cost economics perspective[J].Construction Management and Economics,2008,26(7):707-721.
[35]Yongjian Ke,ShouQing Wang,Albert P.C.Chan,Patrick T.I.Lam.Preferred risk allocation in China's public-private partnership(PPP) projects[J],InternationalJournalof Project Management,2009(08):7
[36]Jong H.Ock,Seung H.Han,Hyung K.Park.Diekmann.Improving decision quality:a risk-based go/no-go decision for build-operate-transfer(BOT) projects,http://cjce.nrc.ca,2005.5.31
[37]刘希伟.BOT项目前期的风险分析[J].价值工程,2008(9):123-135
[38]张宝峰.垃圾发电的优势及存在问题[J].西北电力技术,2005(3):42-44.
[39]Shou Qing Wang,Robert L.K.Tiong,Seng Kiong Ting,David Ashley.Political risks:analysis of key contract clauses in China's BOT project[J].Journal of construction engineering and management,1999(5):191-196
[40]Robert L.K.Tiong.BOT projects:risks and securities[J].Construction Management and Economics,1990(8):315-328
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