我国水泥行业上市公司融资约束实证研究
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摘要
2008年源于美国的金融危机给中国经济带来巨大冲击,外部经济环境的恶化,使得以出口为导向的中国经济面临严峻的考验,为了促进经济的发展,政府执行宽松的财政政策,投资4万亿元人民币用于基础设施建设,民生保障工程建设,扩大内需,拉动经济发展。水泥行业作为非金属建材行业的重要组成部分,在我国现代化建设,城市化进程,城镇化建设中起到重要作用。水泥行业的前景与基础设施建设、城镇建设及城市化进程有很强的正相关关系。因此,水泥行业在经济危机的背景下前景依然景气,水泥行业投资高涨,市场竞争激烈。
与此同时,产品竞争的激烈程度加剧、可再生重要资源约束加重、环境的恶化,使得提高产品核心技术、调整和优化产业结构、节能减排成为当今产业发展的主题。水泥行业作为高能耗行业,理所当然成为产业政策调整的对象之一。因此,结合经济背景,在产业政策指导下,更加优化水泥行业的发展成为值得研究的课题。
本文采用1995年至2008年水泥行业上市(沪深)公司中的20家公司作为样本,利用投资——现金流量作为融资约束的度量指标,使用Eviews6.0计量分析软件,通过面板数据的实证分析,研究了水泥行业上市公司的融资约束情况,并对水泥行业上市公司融资约束进行了动因检验。文章使用资产负债率分类标准将样本公司划分为高负债率和低负债率公司,结果发现,高负债率样本公司的投资对现金流量的敏感度较高,即融资约束在水泥行业上市公司中显著存在,检验同时表明,水泥行业上市公司的投资对信贷的依赖程度较高,投资对短期贷款的依赖程度最为突出。此后的融资约束动因检验发现,水泥行业上市公司的融资约束并不是源于股东与管理者之间的冲突所产生的代理成本,也不是源于股东与债权人之间的冲突所引起的代理成本。
在实证的基础上,文章提出对水泥行业的信贷对策建议。若使用单一的信贷配额数量调控水泥行业投资,水泥行业企业转向对内部资金的依赖使信贷配额数量调控效果减弱。若使用单一的信贷成本来调控水泥行业投资,由于经营效率的不同,经营效率较低且负债率较高的企业可能会陷入财务困境,从而造成水泥行业的二级分化,不利于建立公平、公正的竞争环境。因此,对水泥行业企业投资的调控需结合企业本身情况,综合调控。为了减小融资约束,水泥行业企业可以扩展融资手段,例如,扩大证券市场融资份额,减少对银行信贷的依赖性。对水泥行业企业融资约束状况的了解,有利于银行控制对水泥行业企业的信贷风险,水泥行业企业融资手段的扩展也有利于减少银行对水泥行业企业信贷的系统风险。
对于水泥行业融资约束的动因,本文将其归结为“制度因素”,但文章未能对“制度因素”做出进一步的分析和解释,这也是本文研究的局限所在。
Financial crisis originated from the U.S.in 2008 created a huge impact on the economy of China. Export-oriented economy in China had been facing a severe test, as external economic environment worsened. In order to promote economic development, Chinese government implemented loose fiscal policy, investing 4 trillion Yuan for infrastructure construction, social insurance, unemployment insurance, expanding domestic demand and stimulating economic development. As a non-metallic building materials industry, cement industry plays an important role in China's modernization and urbanization. The prospects for the cement industry and infrastructure construction, urban development and urbanization process have a strong positive correlation. Therefore, the cement industry in the context of the economic crisis still prospected. In cement industry, investment rose, the market competition became fiercer.
At the same time, fierce competition of product, increased important-renewable resource constraints and environmental degradation make the improvement in core technology, adjustment and optimization of industrial structure and energy conservation as the themes of today's industries. Cement industry as a high-energy consumption industry, naturally became one of the objects of the adjustment of industrial policies.Therefore, in the context of the economic crisis, a more optimal development of the cement industry under the guidance of industrial policies became worthy of study.
In this paper, data was collected from 20 listed companies (listed in Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchange Market) in the cement industry from 1995 to 2006. Investment-cash flow sensitivity was taken as a measure of financial constraint indicators.Data was processed by Eviews6.0 measurement analysis software. Through empirical analysis of panel data of the cement industry, we found that financing constraints existed in these listed companies. We used the classification of assets and liabilities rate and classified the sample companies into high debt ratios and low debt ratio companies.We found that sensitivity of investment-cash flow of the sample companies with high debt ratio was more obvious.Thus financing constraints was significant in listed companies in the cement industry. Empirical analysis also showed that the cement industry investment in listed companies relied on credit. A higher degree of investment depended more on short-term loans. In the motivation test part, we found that financing constraints of listed companies in cement industry was not due to the agency costs generated by the conflict between shareholders and managers, nor is it due to the agency costs generated by the conflict between shareholders and creditors.
Based on the evidence, effect of a single quota control of investment in credit in the cement industry will be weakened because of the shift of enterprises to internal funds.Lower operating efficiency companies with higher assets and liabilities rate might fall into financial difficulties if we only raised the cost of credit in the cement industry. This is not conducive to the establishment of a fair and impartial competitive environment. Therefore, the regulation of investment of the cement industry requires an integrated solution. To reduce the financial constraints, the cement industry enterprises can diversify financing means, for example, financing in the form of equity which also can reduce companies'dependence on bank credit. Less dependence on bank credit helps banks controlling the credit risk of the enterprises in the cement industry and reduces the bank's systemic credit risk in the cement industry.
As for the factors of financing constraints for the cement industry, this article took it as "institutional factors",but the article failed to make further analysis and interpretation of "institutional factors",and this is the limitations of this study.
与此同时,产品竞争的激烈程度加剧、可再生重要资源约束加重、环境的恶化,使得提高产品核心技术、调整和优化产业结构、节能减排成为当今产业发展的主题。水泥行业作为高能耗行业,理所当然成为产业政策调整的对象之一。因此,结合经济背景,在产业政策指导下,更加优化水泥行业的发展成为值得研究的课题。
本文采用1995年至2008年水泥行业上市(沪深)公司中的20家公司作为样本,利用投资——现金流量作为融资约束的度量指标,使用Eviews6.0计量分析软件,通过面板数据的实证分析,研究了水泥行业上市公司的融资约束情况,并对水泥行业上市公司融资约束进行了动因检验。文章使用资产负债率分类标准将样本公司划分为高负债率和低负债率公司,结果发现,高负债率样本公司的投资对现金流量的敏感度较高,即融资约束在水泥行业上市公司中显著存在,检验同时表明,水泥行业上市公司的投资对信贷的依赖程度较高,投资对短期贷款的依赖程度最为突出。此后的融资约束动因检验发现,水泥行业上市公司的融资约束并不是源于股东与管理者之间的冲突所产生的代理成本,也不是源于股东与债权人之间的冲突所引起的代理成本。
在实证的基础上,文章提出对水泥行业的信贷对策建议。若使用单一的信贷配额数量调控水泥行业投资,水泥行业企业转向对内部资金的依赖使信贷配额数量调控效果减弱。若使用单一的信贷成本来调控水泥行业投资,由于经营效率的不同,经营效率较低且负债率较高的企业可能会陷入财务困境,从而造成水泥行业的二级分化,不利于建立公平、公正的竞争环境。因此,对水泥行业企业投资的调控需结合企业本身情况,综合调控。为了减小融资约束,水泥行业企业可以扩展融资手段,例如,扩大证券市场融资份额,减少对银行信贷的依赖性。对水泥行业企业融资约束状况的了解,有利于银行控制对水泥行业企业的信贷风险,水泥行业企业融资手段的扩展也有利于减少银行对水泥行业企业信贷的系统风险。
对于水泥行业融资约束的动因,本文将其归结为“制度因素”,但文章未能对“制度因素”做出进一步的分析和解释,这也是本文研究的局限所在。
Financial crisis originated from the U.S.in 2008 created a huge impact on the economy of China. Export-oriented economy in China had been facing a severe test, as external economic environment worsened. In order to promote economic development, Chinese government implemented loose fiscal policy, investing 4 trillion Yuan for infrastructure construction, social insurance, unemployment insurance, expanding domestic demand and stimulating economic development. As a non-metallic building materials industry, cement industry plays an important role in China's modernization and urbanization. The prospects for the cement industry and infrastructure construction, urban development and urbanization process have a strong positive correlation. Therefore, the cement industry in the context of the economic crisis still prospected. In cement industry, investment rose, the market competition became fiercer.
At the same time, fierce competition of product, increased important-renewable resource constraints and environmental degradation make the improvement in core technology, adjustment and optimization of industrial structure and energy conservation as the themes of today's industries. Cement industry as a high-energy consumption industry, naturally became one of the objects of the adjustment of industrial policies.Therefore, in the context of the economic crisis, a more optimal development of the cement industry under the guidance of industrial policies became worthy of study.
In this paper, data was collected from 20 listed companies (listed in Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchange Market) in the cement industry from 1995 to 2006. Investment-cash flow sensitivity was taken as a measure of financial constraint indicators.Data was processed by Eviews6.0 measurement analysis software. Through empirical analysis of panel data of the cement industry, we found that financing constraints existed in these listed companies. We used the classification of assets and liabilities rate and classified the sample companies into high debt ratios and low debt ratio companies.We found that sensitivity of investment-cash flow of the sample companies with high debt ratio was more obvious.Thus financing constraints was significant in listed companies in the cement industry. Empirical analysis also showed that the cement industry investment in listed companies relied on credit. A higher degree of investment depended more on short-term loans. In the motivation test part, we found that financing constraints of listed companies in cement industry was not due to the agency costs generated by the conflict between shareholders and managers, nor is it due to the agency costs generated by the conflict between shareholders and creditors.
Based on the evidence, effect of a single quota control of investment in credit in the cement industry will be weakened because of the shift of enterprises to internal funds.Lower operating efficiency companies with higher assets and liabilities rate might fall into financial difficulties if we only raised the cost of credit in the cement industry. This is not conducive to the establishment of a fair and impartial competitive environment. Therefore, the regulation of investment of the cement industry requires an integrated solution. To reduce the financial constraints, the cement industry enterprises can diversify financing means, for example, financing in the form of equity which also can reduce companies'dependence on bank credit. Less dependence on bank credit helps banks controlling the credit risk of the enterprises in the cement industry and reduces the bank's systemic credit risk in the cement industry.
As for the factors of financing constraints for the cement industry, this article took it as "institutional factors",but the article failed to make further analysis and interpretation of "institutional factors",and this is the limitations of this study.
引文
3 Franco Modigliani and Merton H. Miller, "The cost of capital, corporate finance and the theory of investment" American Economics Review,1958,48:261-297;
4 Franco Modigliani and Merton H. Miller,"Corporate Income Taxes and the Cost of Capital:A Correction",The American Economic Review, Vol.53, No.3 (Jun.,1963), pp.433-443;
5 Merton H. Miller, "Debt and Taxes", The Journal of Finance, Vol.32, No.2, Papers and Proceedings of the Thirty-Fifth Annual Meeting of the American Finance Association, Atlantic City, New Jersey, September 16-18,1976. (May,1977), pp.261-275;
John Meyer and Edwin Kuh,"Further Comments on the Empirical Study of Investment Functions", The Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol.39, No.2 (May,1957), pp.218-222;
7管理评论,2006年第10期
8管理评论,2007年第3期
9 John Meyer and Edwin Kuh."Acceleration and Related Theories of Investment:An Empirical Inquiry" [J].The Review of Economics and Statistics,1955, Vol.37, No.3 (Aug.,1955), pp.217-230
10 John Meyer and Edwin Kuh,"Acceleration and Related Theories of Investment:An Empirical Inquiry",The Review of Economics and Statistics,1955,Vol.37, No.3 (Aug.,1955), pp.217-230
11中国注册师协会.《财务成本管理》,北京：经济科学出版社,2007,P38-46.
12B的定义与引入参见Stephen Bond and Costas Meghir, "Dynamic Investment Models and the Firm's Financial Policy",The Review of Economic Studies, Vol.61, No.2 (Apr.,1994), pp.203-206
1.Abel, Andrew,B.,and Blanchard, Olivier J."The Present Value of Profits and Cyclical Movements in Investment"[J].Econometrica,1986(54),pp249-273.
2.Blanchard, O.,Rhee, C.and Summers, L.,"The Stock Market, Profit and Investment"[J].NBER Working Paper 3370,1990.
3.Chapman,D.R,C.W.Junor and T.R.Stegman,"Cash Flow Constraints and Firms' Investment Behaviour" [J].Applied Economics,1996(28),pp1037-1044.
4.Chow and Fung, "Ownership Structure,Lending Bias and Liquidity Constraints:Evidence from Shanghai's Manufacturing Sector"[J].Journal of Comparative Economics,1998(26),pp301-316.
5.Erickson,T and T,M,Whited."Measurement Error and the Relationship between Investment and Q" [J].Journal of Political Economy,2000(108),pp1027-1057.
6.Fazzari,Steven M.,R.Glenn Hubbard, and Bruce C.Petersen."Financing Constraints and Corporate Investment" [J].Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1988(1),pp141-206.
7.Gomes,J.F."FinancingInvestment"[J].AmericanEconomicReview,2001(91),pp1263-1285.
8.Hoshi, Takeo;Anil, Kashyap and David Scharfstein. "Corporate Structure, liquidity and Investment:Evidence from Japanese Industrial Groups" [J].Quarterly Journal of Economics".1991(106),pp33-60.
9.Hayashi, F.,"Corporate Finance Side of the Q Theory of Investment"[J].Journal of Public Economics,1985(27),pp261-280.
10.Hayashi, F.,"Tobin's Average Q and Marginal Q:a neoclassical interpretation"[J].Econometrica,1982(50),pp213-224.
11.Jensen, Michael and William Mecking, "Theory of the Firm:Managerial Behavior, Agency Costs and Ownership Structure" [J].Journal of Financial Economics,1976, 3(4),pp305-534.
12.John Meyer and Edwin Kuh,"Further Comments on the Empirical Study of Investment Functions" [J].The Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol.39, No.2, 1957,pp218-222.
13.John Meyer and Edwin Kuh."Acceleration and Related Theories of Investment:An Empirical Inquiry" [J].The Review of Economics and Statistics,1955,Vol.37, No. 3 (Aug.,1955),pp217-230
14.Jensen, M.C.,"Agent Costs of Free Cash Flow, Corporate Finance and Take-over" [J].American Economic Review,1986, pp323-329.
15.Kaplan,S.N and Zingales L."Do Investment-cash Flow Sensitivities Provide Useful Measures of Financing Constraints" [J].Quarterly Journal of Economics,1997(112),pp169-215.
16.Modiliani,Franco and Merton Miller,"The cost of capital, Corporate finance and the Theory of Investment" [J].American Economics Review,1958, (48),pp261-297.
17.Myers, Stewart and Nicholas Majluf. "Corporate Financing and Investment Decisions When Firms Have Information That Investors Do Not Have" [J]. Journal of financial economics,1984,13(2), pp187-222
18.Myers, S.C. "Determinants of Corporate Borrowing" [J].Journal of Financial Economics,1977, ppl47-175
19.Stephen D. Oliner and Glenn D. Rudebusch,"Sources of the Financing Hierarchy for Business Investment" [J].The Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol.74, No.4 1992,pp643-654
2O.Schaller, H, "Asymmetric Information, Liquidity Constraints and Canadian Investment" [J].Canadian Journal of Economics,1993,Vol.26.NO.3.
21.Stephen Bond and Costas Meghir,"Dynamic Investment Models and the Firm's Financial Policy" [J].Review of Economic Studies,1994(61),pp 197-222.
22.Stephen C.Vogt. "The Cash Flow/Investment Relationship:evidence from U. S. manufacturing firms" [J].Financial Management,1994(23),pp3-20.
23.Whited,Toni M."Debt, Liquidity Constraints and Corporate Investment:Evidence from Panel Data" [J].Journal of Finance,1992,47(4), pp1452-1460.
24.冯巍,《内部现金流量和企业投资——来自我国股票市场上市公司财务报告的证据》[J],北京：经济科学,1999年第1期。
25.冯巍、方向阳,《投资理论新进展及其启示》[J],北京：经济学动态,1998 年第8期。
26.何金耿、丁加华,《上市公司投资决策行为的实证研究》[J],深圳：证券市场导报,2001年9月号。
27.连玉君、程建,《投资——现金流敏感性：融资约束还是代理成本?》[J],上海,财经研究,2006,第33卷第2期。
28.郭丽虹、金德环,《企业投资与企业的流动性——基于中国制造业的面板数据分析》[J],上海：财经研究,2007,第33卷第3期。
29.郭丽红、马文杰,《融资约束与企业投资——现金流量敏感度的再检验：来自中国上市公司的证据》[J],北京：经济研究,2009年第2期。
30.郭丽红,《融资方式对企业投资的影响——基于中国上市公司的实证分析》[J],南昌：当代财经,2006年第8期总第261期。
31.袁申国,《企业投资与企业流动性关系的行业差异性研究——基于中国上市公司的实证分析》[J],广州：广东外语外贸大学学报,2009,第20卷第6期。
32.连玉君、苏治、丁志国,《现金——现金流敏感性能检验融资约束假说吗?》[J],北京：统计研究,2008年10月,第25卷第10期。
33.梅丹,《我国上市公司固定资产投资规模财务影响因素研究》[J],管理科学,天津：2005第18卷第5期。
34.郑江淮、何旭强、王华,《上市公司投资的融资约束：从股权结构角度的实证分析》[J],北京：金融研究,2001年第11期(总257期)。
4 Franco Modigliani and Merton H. Miller,"Corporate Income Taxes and the Cost of Capital:A Correction",The American Economic Review, Vol.53, No.3 (Jun.,1963), pp.433-443;
5 Merton H. Miller, "Debt and Taxes", The Journal of Finance, Vol.32, No.2, Papers and Proceedings of the Thirty-Fifth Annual Meeting of the American Finance Association, Atlantic City, New Jersey, September 16-18,1976. (May,1977), pp.261-275;
John Meyer and Edwin Kuh,"Further Comments on the Empirical Study of Investment Functions", The Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol.39, No.2 (May,1957), pp.218-222;
7管理评论,2006年第10期
8管理评论,2007年第3期
9 John Meyer and Edwin Kuh."Acceleration and Related Theories of Investment:An Empirical Inquiry" [J].The Review of Economics and Statistics,1955, Vol.37, No.3 (Aug.,1955), pp.217-230
10 John Meyer and Edwin Kuh,"Acceleration and Related Theories of Investment:An Empirical Inquiry",The Review of Economics and Statistics,1955,Vol.37, No.3 (Aug.,1955), pp.217-230
11中国注册师协会.《财务成本管理》,北京：经济科学出版社,2007,P38-46.
12B的定义与引入参见Stephen Bond and Costas Meghir, "Dynamic Investment Models and the Firm's Financial Policy",The Review of Economic Studies, Vol.61, No.2 (Apr.,1994), pp.203-206
1.Abel, Andrew,B.,and Blanchard, Olivier J."The Present Value of Profits and Cyclical Movements in Investment"[J].Econometrica,1986(54),pp249-273.
2.Blanchard, O.,Rhee, C.and Summers, L.,"The Stock Market, Profit and Investment"[J].NBER Working Paper 3370,1990.
3.Chapman,D.R,C.W.Junor and T.R.Stegman,"Cash Flow Constraints and Firms' Investment Behaviour" [J].Applied Economics,1996(28),pp1037-1044.
4.Chow and Fung, "Ownership Structure,Lending Bias and Liquidity Constraints:Evidence from Shanghai's Manufacturing Sector"[J].Journal of Comparative Economics,1998(26),pp301-316.
5.Erickson,T and T,M,Whited."Measurement Error and the Relationship between Investment and Q" [J].Journal of Political Economy,2000(108),pp1027-1057.
6.Fazzari,Steven M.,R.Glenn Hubbard, and Bruce C.Petersen."Financing Constraints and Corporate Investment" [J].Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1988(1),pp141-206.
7.Gomes,J.F."FinancingInvestment"[J].AmericanEconomicReview,2001(91),pp1263-1285.
8.Hoshi, Takeo;Anil, Kashyap and David Scharfstein. "Corporate Structure, liquidity and Investment:Evidence from Japanese Industrial Groups" [J].Quarterly Journal of Economics".1991(106),pp33-60.
9.Hayashi, F.,"Corporate Finance Side of the Q Theory of Investment"[J].Journal of Public Economics,1985(27),pp261-280.
10.Hayashi, F.,"Tobin's Average Q and Marginal Q:a neoclassical interpretation"[J].Econometrica,1982(50),pp213-224.
11.Jensen, Michael and William Mecking, "Theory of the Firm:Managerial Behavior, Agency Costs and Ownership Structure" [J].Journal of Financial Economics,1976, 3(4),pp305-534.
12.John Meyer and Edwin Kuh,"Further Comments on the Empirical Study of Investment Functions" [J].The Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol.39, No.2, 1957,pp218-222.
13.John Meyer and Edwin Kuh."Acceleration and Related Theories of Investment:An Empirical Inquiry" [J].The Review of Economics and Statistics,1955,Vol.37, No. 3 (Aug.,1955),pp217-230
14.Jensen, M.C.,"Agent Costs of Free Cash Flow, Corporate Finance and Take-over" [J].American Economic Review,1986, pp323-329.
15.Kaplan,S.N and Zingales L."Do Investment-cash Flow Sensitivities Provide Useful Measures of Financing Constraints" [J].Quarterly Journal of Economics,1997(112),pp169-215.
16.Modiliani,Franco and Merton Miller,"The cost of capital, Corporate finance and the Theory of Investment" [J].American Economics Review,1958, (48),pp261-297.
17.Myers, Stewart and Nicholas Majluf. "Corporate Financing and Investment Decisions When Firms Have Information That Investors Do Not Have" [J]. Journal of financial economics,1984,13(2), pp187-222
18.Myers, S.C. "Determinants of Corporate Borrowing" [J].Journal of Financial Economics,1977, ppl47-175
19.Stephen D. Oliner and Glenn D. Rudebusch,"Sources of the Financing Hierarchy for Business Investment" [J].The Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol.74, No.4 1992,pp643-654
2O.Schaller, H, "Asymmetric Information, Liquidity Constraints and Canadian Investment" [J].Canadian Journal of Economics,1993,Vol.26.NO.3.
21.Stephen Bond and Costas Meghir,"Dynamic Investment Models and the Firm's Financial Policy" [J].Review of Economic Studies,1994(61),pp 197-222.
22.Stephen C.Vogt. "The Cash Flow/Investment Relationship:evidence from U. S. manufacturing firms" [J].Financial Management,1994(23),pp3-20.
23.Whited,Toni M."Debt, Liquidity Constraints and Corporate Investment:Evidence from Panel Data" [J].Journal of Finance,1992,47(4), pp1452-1460.
24.冯巍,《内部现金流量和企业投资——来自我国股票市场上市公司财务报告的证据》[J],北京：经济科学,1999年第1期。
25.冯巍、方向阳,《投资理论新进展及其启示》[J],北京：经济学动态,1998 年第8期。
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