浙江金融发展与经济增长关系研究
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摘要
经济增长是社会发展和政治稳定的前提条件,因此,不断探索、发现和优化促进经济增长的要素,以发挥其促进经济增长的积极作用,是经济学界一直关注和研究的焦点。由于金融发展在经济生活中发挥了越来越重要的作用,众多学者对金融发展和经济增长之间的关系进行了研究。研究普遍发现,金融发展和经济增长之间存在相关关系,金融发展不足和过度都会对经济发展产生不良影响。近年来,国外更是有很多学者研究发现,完善的金融系统可以促进经济增长,经济增长反过来又影响金融的发展,两者之间存在相互促进的良性机制；与国外相比,国内的相关研究结论并不统一,这主要是与我国目前的金融发展状况有关。
改革开放以来,浙江经济发展快速,成为了整个中国经济最为活跃的地区之一。在浙江经济发展过程中,浙江金融整体态势呈现了良好的发展势头。本文立足于金融发展理论,在对浙江金融发展定性分析的基础上,采用了单位根检验、协整检验和格兰杰因果检验,对浙江金融发展和经济增长的关系进行了实证分析；并结合浙江经济和金融发展的实际情况,提出了一些建议和措施。经过研究,笔者发现,浙江的金融发展和经济增长之间存在单向的格兰杰因果关系,浙江经济增长是金融发展的格兰杰因,浙江经济增长促进了本地区的金融发展,但金融发展对经济增长的解释力不足。研究结果与帕特里克提出的需求遵从型相符,即当经济发展进入了较为发达的阶段,金融发展是经济增长需求的被动反映。也就是说,浙江经济已经进入了较发达的阶段。
本文主要包括五部分：第一部分主要介绍了研究的背景、意义和方法以及技术路线等；第二部分是金融发展与经济增长关系理论概述,介绍国内外相关的理论和实证研究；第三部分是对浙江金融发展现状的分析,主要包括浙江金融发展的整体状况、民间金融的发展分析及其发展中存在的问题；第四部分是实证分析,通过单位根检验、协整检验和格兰杰因果检验,对浙江金融发展和经济增长两者的关系进行实证分析,并得出结论；第五部分是根据浙江金融发展和经济增长的实际情况,提出的建议和措施。
The economic growth is the prerequisite of social development and political stability, therefore, it is the hot point in the economic circles to continue to explore, discover and optimize the elements of economic growth and make them play their positive role in promoting economic growth. As financial development has played more and more vital role in the economic life, a lot of scholars have conducted the study on the relationship between the financial development and economic growth. The studies generally hold the view that there was a associative relationship between the financial development and the economic growth, the insufficiency and excess of financial development both have the negative impact on the economic development. In recent years, many scholars abroad found that a sound financial system can promote the economic growth and economic growth in turn affects financial development, between them there is a mutual promotion mechanism. Compare with the research abroad, the domestic related research conclusion is not unified, and this is mainly concerns with the current financial development condition of China.
Since the Chinese Economic Reform, Zhejiang economic develop fast, it has become one of the most active areas entire Chinese economy. In Zhejiang economic development process, Zhejiang finance overall situation has showed a good development momentum. Based on the theory of the financial development and the qualitative analysis on the Zhejiang financial development, using the unit root test, cointegration test and Granger causality test, this paper has carried on the empirical analysis on the relationship between Zhejiang financial development and the economic growth. And based on the actual development situation of Zhejiang economy and finance, the paper has made some proposals and the measures. The paper discovered that there was a long-term cointegration relationship between the financial development and the economic growth of Zhejiang, and the economic growth has made a significant impact on the regional financial development in Zhejiang. However, the financial development is lack of explanatory power to the economic growth. It has not established a mutual promotion mechanism between the financial development and the economic growth.
The main content of this paper are as follows:The first part mainly introduced the research background, the significance and the method as well as the technical route and so on. The second part is literature review on the theory of the financial development, including the relevant theoretic and empirical study at home and abroad. The third part is the status of financial development of Zhejiang, mainly including the overall state of financial development, the development of private financial in Zhejiang and problems in their development. The fourth part is the empirical analysis, through the unit root test, cointegration test and Granger causality test, the paper made the empirical analysis on the relationship between financial development and economic growth of Zhejiang and made conclusions. The fifth part is based on the actual situation of financial development and economic growth in Zhejiang, the paper made some recommendations and measures.
改革开放以来,浙江经济发展快速,成为了整个中国经济最为活跃的地区之一。在浙江经济发展过程中,浙江金融整体态势呈现了良好的发展势头。本文立足于金融发展理论,在对浙江金融发展定性分析的基础上,采用了单位根检验、协整检验和格兰杰因果检验,对浙江金融发展和经济增长的关系进行了实证分析；并结合浙江经济和金融发展的实际情况,提出了一些建议和措施。经过研究,笔者发现,浙江的金融发展和经济增长之间存在单向的格兰杰因果关系,浙江经济增长是金融发展的格兰杰因,浙江经济增长促进了本地区的金融发展,但金融发展对经济增长的解释力不足。研究结果与帕特里克提出的需求遵从型相符,即当经济发展进入了较为发达的阶段,金融发展是经济增长需求的被动反映。也就是说,浙江经济已经进入了较发达的阶段。
本文主要包括五部分：第一部分主要介绍了研究的背景、意义和方法以及技术路线等；第二部分是金融发展与经济增长关系理论概述,介绍国内外相关的理论和实证研究；第三部分是对浙江金融发展现状的分析,主要包括浙江金融发展的整体状况、民间金融的发展分析及其发展中存在的问题；第四部分是实证分析,通过单位根检验、协整检验和格兰杰因果检验,对浙江金融发展和经济增长两者的关系进行实证分析,并得出结论；第五部分是根据浙江金融发展和经济增长的实际情况,提出的建议和措施。
The economic growth is the prerequisite of social development and political stability, therefore, it is the hot point in the economic circles to continue to explore, discover and optimize the elements of economic growth and make them play their positive role in promoting economic growth. As financial development has played more and more vital role in the economic life, a lot of scholars have conducted the study on the relationship between the financial development and economic growth. The studies generally hold the view that there was a associative relationship between the financial development and the economic growth, the insufficiency and excess of financial development both have the negative impact on the economic development. In recent years, many scholars abroad found that a sound financial system can promote the economic growth and economic growth in turn affects financial development, between them there is a mutual promotion mechanism. Compare with the research abroad, the domestic related research conclusion is not unified, and this is mainly concerns with the current financial development condition of China.
Since the Chinese Economic Reform, Zhejiang economic develop fast, it has become one of the most active areas entire Chinese economy. In Zhejiang economic development process, Zhejiang finance overall situation has showed a good development momentum. Based on the theory of the financial development and the qualitative analysis on the Zhejiang financial development, using the unit root test, cointegration test and Granger causality test, this paper has carried on the empirical analysis on the relationship between Zhejiang financial development and the economic growth. And based on the actual development situation of Zhejiang economy and finance, the paper has made some proposals and the measures. The paper discovered that there was a long-term cointegration relationship between the financial development and the economic growth of Zhejiang, and the economic growth has made a significant impact on the regional financial development in Zhejiang. However, the financial development is lack of explanatory power to the economic growth. It has not established a mutual promotion mechanism between the financial development and the economic growth.
The main content of this paper are as follows:The first part mainly introduced the research background, the significance and the method as well as the technical route and so on. The second part is literature review on the theory of the financial development, including the relevant theoretic and empirical study at home and abroad. The third part is the status of financial development of Zhejiang, mainly including the overall state of financial development, the development of private financial in Zhejiang and problems in their development. The fourth part is the empirical analysis, through the unit root test, cointegration test and Granger causality test, the paper made the empirical analysis on the relationship between financial development and economic growth of Zhejiang and made conclusions. The fifth part is based on the actual situation of financial development and economic growth in Zhejiang, the paper made some recommendations and measures.
引文
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①胡鞍钢,周立.对中国金融发展地区差距的补充分析[J].中国国情分析研究报告,2001a(85).
①约瑟夫·熊彼特.经济发展理论：对于利润、资本、信贷利息和经济周期的考察[M].何畏等译.北京：商务印书馆,1990：82.
①约翰·希克斯.经济史理论[M].厉以平.北京：商务印书馆,1998：56-144.
①雷蒙德·w·戈德史密斯.金融结构与金触发展[M].周硕等,译.上海：上海三联书店,]994：23.
①罗纳德·I·麦金农.经济发展中的货币与资本[M].卢骢,译.上海：上海三联书店,1988.
②爱德华·肖.经济发展中的金融深化[M].邵伏军等,译.上海：上海三联书店,1988.
①雷蒙德·w·戈德史密斯.金融结构与金融发展[M].周硕等,译.上海：上海三联书店，1994：41-42.
①King R, Levine R. Finance and Growth:Schumpeter Might Be Right[J]. Quarterly Journal of Economics,1993,108 (3):717-737.
②Rajan,R., Zingales, L.. Financial dependence and growth[J]. The American Economic Review,1998a,88,559-586.
① Levine R, Zervos S. Stock Market Development and Long-run Growth[J]. World Bank Economic Review,1996. 10(5):323-340.
② Wang F. Financial Distortions and Economic Growth Empirical Evidence[J]. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade. 2009,45(3):56-66.
① Chen H, Guo J T. Social Status and the Growth Effect of Money[J]. The Japanese Economic Review,2009,60(1): 133-141.
①周建松.浙江地方金融发展研究[M].杭州：浙江大学出版社,2005：44-55.
①周业梁.浙江金融业改革开放30年成就辉煌[J].浙江金融,2008(11)：4-6.
①刘仁伍.区域金融结构和金融发展理论与实证研究[M].北京：经济管理出版社,2003：46-48.
②姜旭朝.中国民间金融研究[M].济南：山东人民出版社,2006：1-2.
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①这是杜润生2000年5月25日,在学习温州、台州工作经验座谈会上的讲话,后经整理刊登在科技导报上(2000年10期)。
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①亚当·斯密.国富论[M].谢祖钧等,译.北京：新世界出版社,2007：13-30.
①徐诺金.论我国的金融生态问题[J].金融研究，2005(2)：35.
[2]约瑟夫·熊彼特.经济发展理论：对于利润、资本、信贷利息和经济周期的考察[M].何畏等,译.北京：商务印书馆,1990：82.
[3]约翰·希克斯.经济史理论[M].厉以平,译.北京：商务印书馆,1998：56-144.
[4]雷蒙德·W·戈德史密斯.金融结构与金融发展[M].周硕等,译.上海：上海三联书店,1994：23-42.
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①这是杜润生2000年5月25日,在学习温州、台州工作经验座谈会上的讲话,后经整理刊登在科技导报上(2000年10期)。
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