FX市仁用杏精深加工项目经济可行性评价
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摘要
目前,农副产品精深加工已成为国际食品业发展的趋势,发达国家初级产品与加工产品消费比已达2：8,而我国是8：2。FX市原矿产资源储量丰富,但近年来日益枯竭,作为全国唯一的“资源型城市经济转型试点市”,其将仁用杏精深加工项目列为近年的工作重点。但FX市并没有形成规模的仁用杏加工企业,因此建设大型仁用杏加工企业,拓展仁用杏产业链条迫在眉睫。
为了使该项目能够在经济、技术、环保、社会影响等众多方面收到良好效果,成功稳健的上马,本文通过以下几方面对其进行经济上的评价：
首先,本文从项目的状态入手,基于国内外的研究现状,运用可行性研究和层次分析法等理论对所采集的大量数据与信息进行科学的分析。分别采用PEST模型和SWOT分析表对其宏观市场和微观市场环境进行分析,从市场需求和市场竞争入手确定了该项目的生产方案、技术方案和设备选择。
其次,本文具体给出了该项目的相关财务基本数据和报表,建立了适合该项目的新评价体系,对相关指标进行财务评价,科学计算并做适当分析。
最后,应用层次分析法对项目相关因素进行综合评价。即对项目的财务、环境和社会影响因素进行综合评价。依照综合评价结果给出了处理措施,确保项目周到稳妥的实施,获得全面丰收。
At present, the intensive processing of agricultural byproduct has become the globle development trend of the international food products, ratio of the primary products to intensive processing products in developed countries is2:8, but China is still 8:2. Past days, mineral resources of the FX city abundant reserves, but in recent years, it gets exhausting. As the only " resource-based cities economic transformation of pilot city "in China, the intensive processing of kernel-apricot is listed on the job. But the FX city didn't have large-scaled and kernel-apricot intensive processing enterprise, thus building large-scale processing enterprises, expand the industry chain is urgently.
In order to received good effect on the economy, technology, environmental protection and social influence, to realized the project successfully, based on the following aspects we give the economic evaluation:
Firstly, based on the research situation at home and abroad, we starting from the project status, and use the feasibility study and analytic hierarchy process to analyse the large amounts of data and information science. Using PEST models and SWOT do analysis of the macro and micro market environment, from the market demand and market competition we make out the production plan, technology solutions and the equipment selection.
Secondly, this paper presents the basic data and related financial statements, establishes suitable evaluation system, make finance evaluation of index, scientific computing and make appropriate analysis
Finally, use the application of analytic hierarchy process (ahp) to comprehensive evaluate projects related factors, including the financial, environmental and social factors affecting.At last, these problems are given in accordance with the measures, to ensure that project implementation successfully.
为了使该项目能够在经济、技术、环保、社会影响等众多方面收到良好效果,成功稳健的上马,本文通过以下几方面对其进行经济上的评价：
首先,本文从项目的状态入手,基于国内外的研究现状,运用可行性研究和层次分析法等理论对所采集的大量数据与信息进行科学的分析。分别采用PEST模型和SWOT分析表对其宏观市场和微观市场环境进行分析,从市场需求和市场竞争入手确定了该项目的生产方案、技术方案和设备选择。
其次,本文具体给出了该项目的相关财务基本数据和报表,建立了适合该项目的新评价体系,对相关指标进行财务评价,科学计算并做适当分析。
最后,应用层次分析法对项目相关因素进行综合评价。即对项目的财务、环境和社会影响因素进行综合评价。依照综合评价结果给出了处理措施,确保项目周到稳妥的实施,获得全面丰收。
At present, the intensive processing of agricultural byproduct has become the globle development trend of the international food products, ratio of the primary products to intensive processing products in developed countries is2:8, but China is still 8:2. Past days, mineral resources of the FX city abundant reserves, but in recent years, it gets exhausting. As the only " resource-based cities economic transformation of pilot city "in China, the intensive processing of kernel-apricot is listed on the job. But the FX city didn't have large-scaled and kernel-apricot intensive processing enterprise, thus building large-scale processing enterprises, expand the industry chain is urgently.
In order to received good effect on the economy, technology, environmental protection and social influence, to realized the project successfully, based on the following aspects we give the economic evaluation:
Firstly, based on the research situation at home and abroad, we starting from the project status, and use the feasibility study and analytic hierarchy process to analyse the large amounts of data and information science. Using PEST models and SWOT do analysis of the macro and micro market environment, from the market demand and market competition we make out the production plan, technology solutions and the equipment selection.
Secondly, this paper presents the basic data and related financial statements, establishes suitable evaluation system, make finance evaluation of index, scientific computing and make appropriate analysis
Finally, use the application of analytic hierarchy process (ahp) to comprehensive evaluate projects related factors, including the financial, environmental and social factors affecting.At last, these problems are given in accordance with the measures, to ensure that project implementation successfully.
引文
[1]侯智霞,翟明普,蔡秀芝,等.我国仁用杏生产现状分析[J].北方园艺,2008(2)：39-41.
[2]付晶晶,汪泱.我国可行性研究现状及评价方法改[J].化工技术经济,2005,23(2)：28-34.
[3]周惠珍.可行性研究与项目评价[M].北京：中国科学技术出版社,1992.
[4]George Wu, Richard Gonzalez.Nonlinear Decision Weithts in Choice UnderUncertainty[J].Management Science,1999(1):4574-85.
[5]B.Mulholland and J.Christian, Rish Assessment in Construction Schedules[J]. Journal of Constuction Engineering and Management,1999(1):8-15.
[6]Robert T Chemen, Terence Teilly.Correlations of Copulas for Decision and Risk Analysis[J]. Management Sience,1999,45(2):280-224.
[7]Dele Cooper, Chris Chapman, RiskAnalysis for Loarge Projects Models[J]. Methods and Cades,1987:22-44.
[8]George Wu, Richard Gonzalez,国家计委.建设项目进行可行性研究的试行管理办法[Z].1983.
[9]国家计委.关于建设项目经济评价工作的若干规定[Z].1983.
[10]国家计委.建设项目经济评价方法[Z].1983.
[11]《投资项目可行性研究指南》编写组.投资项目可行性研究指南[M].北京：中国电力出版社,2002.
[12]卞纪兰.搞好农产品精深加工拉动农业发展和促进农民增收[J].大庆社会科学,2004(6)：16-18.
[13]卢根昌.在农产品精深加工上如何实现新突破[J].建设论坛,2008(8)：58.
[14]王为农,贾玉良.大力发展东北地区农产品精深加工问题研究[J].经济研究参考,2006(57)：21-36.
[15]乌本明.青岛宝兰格资源管理项目可行性研究[D].南京：南京理工大学,2007.
[16]李洪群.水产品精深加工项目可行性研究[D].济南：山东大学,2007.
[17]郭维东.运用GB／T19001-2000标准,科学管理工程项目可行性研究报告编制工作[J].中国工程咨询,2007(2)：28.
[18]王来福.如何编制投资项目可行性研究报告[J].工程建设与设计,2001(5)：56-57.
[19]王煜斋.企业工业项目可行性研究现状和建议[J].矿业快报,2004(3)：1-3.
[20]刘平乐.仁用杏的开发利用[J].甘肃农业科技,2005(9)：30-32.
[21]刘耀玺,李志西,孙新涛,等.仁用杏果肉营养成分分析[J].安徽农业科学,2007,35(14)：4175-4176.
[22]刘宁,刘威生,赵锋,等.我国仁用杏主产区生产发展概述[J].北方果树,2004(增刊)：48-49.
[23]陆致成,张静茹,王伟东,等.我国李和杏生产现状及发展对策[J].中国果树,20(3)：44-46.
[24]石海滨.中外项目管理比较及对策研究[J].湖南行政学院学报,2008(4)：82-83.
[25]李欣,白思俊.项目管理成熟度模型及其评估方法研究[J].项目管理技术,2004(4)：24-26.
[26]Hiroshi Tanaka.项目管理的变迁与发展(薛岩)[J].项目管理技术,2004(5)：14-16.
[27]王维才.投资项目可行性分析与项目管理[M].北京：冶金工业出版社,2000.
[28]白思俊.项目管理成熟度模型及其评估方法研究[D].西北工业大学,2004.
[29]Albert Lester.Project management, planning and control[M]. Butterworth Heinemann.
[30]R Miller, D Lessard. The Strategic Management of Large Engineering Projects[M].Cambridge, MA:The MIT Press,2000.
[31]类行健,郭山清.关于财务评价指标体系的思考[J].工作研究,2001(8)：21-24.
[32]杨轶,陈媛.企业财务评价指标体系构建及其优良性研究[J].财务与管理,2008(7)：56-57.
[33]杨洁,黄琦,田兵权.项目决策中财务评价出现的问题及应对措施探析[J].消费导刊,2008(2)：80.
[34]Georgios N. Angelou, Anastasios A. Economides. A compound real option and AHP methodology for evaluating ICT business alternatives[J]. Telematics and Informatics,2009,26(4):353-374.
[35]Chang-Lin Yang, Shan-Ping Chuang, Rong-Hwa Huang. Manufacturing evaluation system based on AHP/ANP approach for wafer fabricating industry[J].Expert Systems with Applications,2009,36(8):11369-11377.
[36]Yingtao Xu, Ying Zhang. A online credit evaluation method based on AHP and SPA[J]. Communications in Nonlinear Science and Numerical Simulation,2009,14(7):3031-3036.
[37]周应恒.江苏省丘陵山区农业综合开发的国民经济评价—农民收入层面[J].农业开发研究,2007,13(1)：11-18.
[38]徐洪冰,张莉.从可行性研究报告引起的深度思考[J].2000,13(2)：47-49.
[39]王 皓.我国项目可行性研究的可信度研究[D].华侨大学,2003.
[40]Project Management Institute. Practice standard for work breakdown structure[M].USA:Project Management Institute,2001.
[41]罗西瑙著,苏芳,译.成功的项目管理[M].北京：清华大学出版社,2004.
[42]巫世峰.房地产项目可行性研究的评价指标体系研究[J].国外建材科技,2006,27(5)：83-85.
[43]曾 鸣,刘万福,未瑞,沈又幸.风力发电可行性评价指标体系及方法研究[J].华东电力,2008,36(8)：961-963.
[44]姚敏,张莉莉.林业建设项目经济可行性评价系统的研建[J].河北林果 研究,2007,22(4)：368-370.
[45]周 琳,吴克宁.无居民海岛旅游开发可行性评价[J].资源与产业,2006,8(3) ： 61-64.
[46]王瑞霞.矿产勘查可行性评价中引入环境影响评价及其模型研究[D].北京：中国地质大学,2006.
[47]国家计委.建设项目经济评价参数[Z].1983.
[48]国家计委.中外合资经营项目经济评价方法[Z].1983.
[49]刘英贤.产品精深加工大有干头[J].企业活力,2007(11)：56-57.
[50]钱国胜.实施农产品精深加工科技计划促进农业跨越式大发展[J].安徽科技,2006(1)：33-34.
[51]Yu-Lung Hsu, Cheng-Haw Lee, V.B. Kreng. The Application of Fuzzy Delphi Method and Fuzzy AHP in Lubricant Regenerative Technology Selection[J].Expert Systems with Applications,2009,65:68-80.
[52]E. Demirbas, M. Kobya, M.T. Sulak. Adsorption kinetics of a basic dye from aqueous solutions onto apricot stone activated carbon[J].Bioresource Technology,2008,99(13):5368-5373.
[53]N. Sugiartha, S.A. Tassou, I. Chaer, D. Marriott. Trigeneration in food retail: An energetic, economic and environmental evaluation for a supermarket application[J].Applied Thermal Engineering,2009,29(13):2624-2632.
[54]Nelson Fumo, Pedro J. Mago, Louay M. Chamra. Energy and economic evaluation of cooling, heating, and power systems based on primary energy [J]. Applied Thermal Engineering,2009,29(13):2665-2671.
[55]葛慧明.层次分析法在专业技能评估中的应用[J].无锡南洋学院学报,2008,7(3)：19-24.
[56]沈振.基于层次分析法的教师授课质量评价[J].浙江国际海运职业技术学院学报,2008,4(9)：60-62.
[57]刘涓钰,李凤.运用层次分析法研究我国高校毕业生就业率的影响因素[J].科教纵横,2009(3)：149-150.
[2]付晶晶,汪泱.我国可行性研究现状及评价方法改[J].化工技术经济,2005,23(2)：28-34.
[3]周惠珍.可行性研究与项目评价[M].北京：中国科学技术出版社,1992.
[4]George Wu, Richard Gonzalez.Nonlinear Decision Weithts in Choice UnderUncertainty[J].Management Science,1999(1):4574-85.
[5]B.Mulholland and J.Christian, Rish Assessment in Construction Schedules[J]. Journal of Constuction Engineering and Management,1999(1):8-15.
[6]Robert T Chemen, Terence Teilly.Correlations of Copulas for Decision and Risk Analysis[J]. Management Sience,1999,45(2):280-224.
[7]Dele Cooper, Chris Chapman, RiskAnalysis for Loarge Projects Models[J]. Methods and Cades,1987:22-44.
[8]George Wu, Richard Gonzalez,国家计委.建设项目进行可行性研究的试行管理办法[Z].1983.
[9]国家计委.关于建设项目经济评价工作的若干规定[Z].1983.
[10]国家计委.建设项目经济评价方法[Z].1983.
[11]《投资项目可行性研究指南》编写组.投资项目可行性研究指南[M].北京：中国电力出版社,2002.
[12]卞纪兰.搞好农产品精深加工拉动农业发展和促进农民增收[J].大庆社会科学,2004(6)：16-18.
[13]卢根昌.在农产品精深加工上如何实现新突破[J].建设论坛,2008(8)：58.
[14]王为农,贾玉良.大力发展东北地区农产品精深加工问题研究[J].经济研究参考,2006(57)：21-36.
[15]乌本明.青岛宝兰格资源管理项目可行性研究[D].南京：南京理工大学,2007.
[16]李洪群.水产品精深加工项目可行性研究[D].济南：山东大学,2007.
[17]郭维东.运用GB／T19001-2000标准,科学管理工程项目可行性研究报告编制工作[J].中国工程咨询,2007(2)：28.
[18]王来福.如何编制投资项目可行性研究报告[J].工程建设与设计,2001(5)：56-57.
[19]王煜斋.企业工业项目可行性研究现状和建议[J].矿业快报,2004(3)：1-3.
[20]刘平乐.仁用杏的开发利用[J].甘肃农业科技,2005(9)：30-32.
[21]刘耀玺,李志西,孙新涛,等.仁用杏果肉营养成分分析[J].安徽农业科学,2007,35(14)：4175-4176.
[22]刘宁,刘威生,赵锋,等.我国仁用杏主产区生产发展概述[J].北方果树,2004(增刊)：48-49.
[23]陆致成,张静茹,王伟东,等.我国李和杏生产现状及发展对策[J].中国果树,20(3)：44-46.
[24]石海滨.中外项目管理比较及对策研究[J].湖南行政学院学报,2008(4)：82-83.
[25]李欣,白思俊.项目管理成熟度模型及其评估方法研究[J].项目管理技术,2004(4)：24-26.
[26]Hiroshi Tanaka.项目管理的变迁与发展(薛岩)[J].项目管理技术,2004(5)：14-16.
[27]王维才.投资项目可行性分析与项目管理[M].北京：冶金工业出版社,2000.
[28]白思俊.项目管理成熟度模型及其评估方法研究[D].西北工业大学,2004.
[29]Albert Lester.Project management, planning and control[M]. Butterworth Heinemann.
[30]R Miller, D Lessard. The Strategic Management of Large Engineering Projects[M].Cambridge, MA:The MIT Press,2000.
[31]类行健,郭山清.关于财务评价指标体系的思考[J].工作研究,2001(8)：21-24.
[32]杨轶,陈媛.企业财务评价指标体系构建及其优良性研究[J].财务与管理,2008(7)：56-57.
[33]杨洁,黄琦,田兵权.项目决策中财务评价出现的问题及应对措施探析[J].消费导刊,2008(2)：80.
[34]Georgios N. Angelou, Anastasios A. Economides. A compound real option and AHP methodology for evaluating ICT business alternatives[J]. Telematics and Informatics,2009,26(4):353-374.
[35]Chang-Lin Yang, Shan-Ping Chuang, Rong-Hwa Huang. Manufacturing evaluation system based on AHP/ANP approach for wafer fabricating industry[J].Expert Systems with Applications,2009,36(8):11369-11377.
[36]Yingtao Xu, Ying Zhang. A online credit evaluation method based on AHP and SPA[J]. Communications in Nonlinear Science and Numerical Simulation,2009,14(7):3031-3036.
[37]周应恒.江苏省丘陵山区农业综合开发的国民经济评价—农民收入层面[J].农业开发研究,2007,13(1)：11-18.
[38]徐洪冰,张莉.从可行性研究报告引起的深度思考[J].2000,13(2)：47-49.
[39]王 皓.我国项目可行性研究的可信度研究[D].华侨大学,2003.
[40]Project Management Institute. Practice standard for work breakdown structure[M].USA:Project Management Institute,2001.
[41]罗西瑙著,苏芳,译.成功的项目管理[M].北京：清华大学出版社,2004.
[42]巫世峰.房地产项目可行性研究的评价指标体系研究[J].国外建材科技,2006,27(5)：83-85.
[43]曾 鸣,刘万福,未瑞,沈又幸.风力发电可行性评价指标体系及方法研究[J].华东电力,2008,36(8)：961-963.
[44]姚敏,张莉莉.林业建设项目经济可行性评价系统的研建[J].河北林果 研究,2007,22(4)：368-370.
[45]周 琳,吴克宁.无居民海岛旅游开发可行性评价[J].资源与产业,2006,8(3) ： 61-64.
[46]王瑞霞.矿产勘查可行性评价中引入环境影响评价及其模型研究[D].北京：中国地质大学,2006.
[47]国家计委.建设项目经济评价参数[Z].1983.
[48]国家计委.中外合资经营项目经济评价方法[Z].1983.
[49]刘英贤.产品精深加工大有干头[J].企业活力,2007(11)：56-57.
[50]钱国胜.实施农产品精深加工科技计划促进农业跨越式大发展[J].安徽科技,2006(1)：33-34.
[51]Yu-Lung Hsu, Cheng-Haw Lee, V.B. Kreng. The Application of Fuzzy Delphi Method and Fuzzy AHP in Lubricant Regenerative Technology Selection[J].Expert Systems with Applications,2009,65:68-80.
[52]E. Demirbas, M. Kobya, M.T. Sulak. Adsorption kinetics of a basic dye from aqueous solutions onto apricot stone activated carbon[J].Bioresource Technology,2008,99(13):5368-5373.
[53]N. Sugiartha, S.A. Tassou, I. Chaer, D. Marriott. Trigeneration in food retail: An energetic, economic and environmental evaluation for a supermarket application[J].Applied Thermal Engineering,2009,29(13):2624-2632.
[54]Nelson Fumo, Pedro J. Mago, Louay M. Chamra. Energy and economic evaluation of cooling, heating, and power systems based on primary energy [J]. Applied Thermal Engineering,2009,29(13):2665-2671.
[55]葛慧明.层次分析法在专业技能评估中的应用[J].无锡南洋学院学报,2008,7(3)：19-24.
[56]沈振.基于层次分析法的教师授课质量评价[J].浙江国际海运职业技术学院学报,2008,4(9)：60-62.
[57]刘涓钰,李凤.运用层次分析法研究我国高校毕业生就业率的影响因素[J].科教纵横,2009(3)：149-150.