中国北方岩溶泉流量的影响因素研究
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摘要
在世界范围内,岩溶形态的含水层构成重要的地下水资源储存空间,据估计,世界25%左右人口的用水全部或者大部分靠岩溶地下水供给。因此,岩溶水文学的研究成为一个世界性的关键课题。我国是岩溶分布面积最为广泛的国家之一,世界上1/4的岩溶面积分布在中国,若按碳酸岩分布面积计,可达746.3万km~2,占我国国土面积1/3左右,其中碳酸岩裸露面积达90.7万。
在我国北方地区,由于岩溶地下水分布面积广泛,贮存量大,流量稳定,水质良好,它已经成为该地区工业农业及居民生活的主要供水水源,对华北地区的国民经济建设,具有非常特殊的重要地位,它直接关系到我国北方地区经济和社会的可持续发展。由于岩溶含水层内部管道、裂隙发育强烈以及石灰岩所具有的溶蚀特性,它对环境变化非常敏感,因此,岩溶泉已经成为人们研究气候变化与人类活动对环境影响的重要信息载体。
20世纪50年代以来,北方岩溶泉流量在总体上普遍下降,流量衰减已经成为岩溶泉变化的主要特征,究其原因主要有两个方面:气候变化和人类活动的影响。作为中国北方地区国民生活生产用水的主要来源,岩溶地下水资源的日益减少,甚至枯竭,势必引起该地区水资源紧张,影响该地区的经济发展。因此,定量地分别获得区域气候变化和人类活动这两个因素对泉域地下水位与泉水流量的影响过程,才能更加明确地指导泉域地下水的开发利用与保护。
本文选择中国北方山西省吕梁市最大的岩溶大泉—柳林泉为研究对象。经过分析,我们认为在70年代以前,柳林泉域的地下水的补给排泄基本上仅受气候影响,无外界人为干扰的自然平衡状态。而在1974年-2005年这段时间内,柳林泉域因受到人类活动的影响而导致水文循环过程的破坏,使得泉水流量不断下降。因此,我们选择1957-1973年柳林泉流量作为原始序列建立区域性气候变化条件下柳林泉的流量的灰色系统GM(1,1)分解模型,将该模型外推预测1974-2005年气候变化条件下的泉水流量,从中减去相应年份的观测流量,获得人类活动对泉水流量衰减的影响。结果表明,1973年以后,随着人类活动的加剧,泉水流量呈现出迅速下降的趋势。在这一阶段,人类活动对泉水流量的衰减起着主要的作用,而气候变化的影响次之。1974到2005年,气候变化对泉水流量衰减的贡献仅占到人类活动对泉水流量衰减贡献量的8.1%-8.6%,在1973年之后的人类活动对泉水流量衰减的贡献中,地下水开采量的贡献仅占到20%-35%:泉域内水库的修建、周边地区地下水超采而造成的跨区域地下水袭夺、煤炭生产中的矿坑排水、泉域内森林植被的破坏等等,这些因素对泉水流量的衰减贡献占到65%-80%。因此,传统的单纯以地下水开采量作为人类活动对泉水的影响是不合理的。本文将灰色系统理论应用于地下水研究中,成功地将气候变化和人类活动对泉水流量的影响过程分别模拟出来,揭示了泉水流量对气候变化及人类活动的响应过程,为区域地下水规划及可持续开发利用提供了科学依据。
In the worldwide, karst aquifer is important for groundwater. Twenty-five percent of population is rely on karst groundwater. So study of karst hydrology is one important topic for world. China is one of the most karst well-developed countries, and one quarter of world karst regions distributes in China which is occupied one third of our country.
Karst groundwater in the north China is the main supply source of industry and agriculture and residents' life. It is extreme crucial for national economy and sustainable development of society. Because the complex of karst and chemical denudation character, it is sensitive for chang of environment. So karst spring had became the information for the study of climatic change and effects of human activities for natural environment.
However, the discharging of karst springs in north China was declining from 1950's. There are two reasons for attenuation, climate change and human activities. As the main source of north China for residents' life and industry, decrease even dry up of karst groundwater can give rise to water resources shortage and influence economic development. So obtain the quantitative two factors respectively can definitely conduct the exploitation and protection of karst springs.
This paper focused on the Liulin Springs which is the biggest karst spring in the Luliang city Shanxi province in the north China. By analyzing the spring flow and groundwater development, we found that the Liulin Springs were in natural conditions before 1973. Using the spring discharge of 1957-1973, we constructed the grey system decomposition model of spring flow in natural conditions. Then we run the model to predict the spring flow from 1974 to 2005. Comparing the predicted spring flow to the observed, we obtained the contribution of human activities to flow decay. The result shows that the contribution of climate change to spring flow decay is only 8.1%-8.6% comparing to anthropogenic effect. Human activities play a more important role in the process of flow decay. In the human activities, groundwater development accounts for 20%-35%, while other factors such as over-exploitation of groundwater in vicinity area, construction of reservoirs, ecosystem destruction, and mine drainage et al account for 65%-80%. Therefore, it is unscientific that simply consider groundwater development as human activities, which make us thought climate change was the main reason to flow decay, it will lead us make the wrong decision to environment. We had applied grey system theory in the groundwater research which simulated the climate change and human activities for influence of spring flow successfully, and afford scientific proof for protection of groundwater.
在我国北方地区,由于岩溶地下水分布面积广泛,贮存量大,流量稳定,水质良好,它已经成为该地区工业农业及居民生活的主要供水水源,对华北地区的国民经济建设,具有非常特殊的重要地位,它直接关系到我国北方地区经济和社会的可持续发展。由于岩溶含水层内部管道、裂隙发育强烈以及石灰岩所具有的溶蚀特性,它对环境变化非常敏感,因此,岩溶泉已经成为人们研究气候变化与人类活动对环境影响的重要信息载体。
20世纪50年代以来,北方岩溶泉流量在总体上普遍下降,流量衰减已经成为岩溶泉变化的主要特征,究其原因主要有两个方面:气候变化和人类活动的影响。作为中国北方地区国民生活生产用水的主要来源,岩溶地下水资源的日益减少,甚至枯竭,势必引起该地区水资源紧张,影响该地区的经济发展。因此,定量地分别获得区域气候变化和人类活动这两个因素对泉域地下水位与泉水流量的影响过程,才能更加明确地指导泉域地下水的开发利用与保护。
本文选择中国北方山西省吕梁市最大的岩溶大泉—柳林泉为研究对象。经过分析,我们认为在70年代以前,柳林泉域的地下水的补给排泄基本上仅受气候影响,无外界人为干扰的自然平衡状态。而在1974年-2005年这段时间内,柳林泉域因受到人类活动的影响而导致水文循环过程的破坏,使得泉水流量不断下降。因此,我们选择1957-1973年柳林泉流量作为原始序列建立区域性气候变化条件下柳林泉的流量的灰色系统GM(1,1)分解模型,将该模型外推预测1974-2005年气候变化条件下的泉水流量,从中减去相应年份的观测流量,获得人类活动对泉水流量衰减的影响。结果表明,1973年以后,随着人类活动的加剧,泉水流量呈现出迅速下降的趋势。在这一阶段,人类活动对泉水流量的衰减起着主要的作用,而气候变化的影响次之。1974到2005年,气候变化对泉水流量衰减的贡献仅占到人类活动对泉水流量衰减贡献量的8.1%-8.6%,在1973年之后的人类活动对泉水流量衰减的贡献中,地下水开采量的贡献仅占到20%-35%:泉域内水库的修建、周边地区地下水超采而造成的跨区域地下水袭夺、煤炭生产中的矿坑排水、泉域内森林植被的破坏等等,这些因素对泉水流量的衰减贡献占到65%-80%。因此,传统的单纯以地下水开采量作为人类活动对泉水的影响是不合理的。本文将灰色系统理论应用于地下水研究中,成功地将气候变化和人类活动对泉水流量的影响过程分别模拟出来,揭示了泉水流量对气候变化及人类活动的响应过程,为区域地下水规划及可持续开发利用提供了科学依据。
In the worldwide, karst aquifer is important for groundwater. Twenty-five percent of population is rely on karst groundwater. So study of karst hydrology is one important topic for world. China is one of the most karst well-developed countries, and one quarter of world karst regions distributes in China which is occupied one third of our country.
Karst groundwater in the north China is the main supply source of industry and agriculture and residents' life. It is extreme crucial for national economy and sustainable development of society. Because the complex of karst and chemical denudation character, it is sensitive for chang of environment. So karst spring had became the information for the study of climatic change and effects of human activities for natural environment.
However, the discharging of karst springs in north China was declining from 1950's. There are two reasons for attenuation, climate change and human activities. As the main source of north China for residents' life and industry, decrease even dry up of karst groundwater can give rise to water resources shortage and influence economic development. So obtain the quantitative two factors respectively can definitely conduct the exploitation and protection of karst springs.
This paper focused on the Liulin Springs which is the biggest karst spring in the Luliang city Shanxi province in the north China. By analyzing the spring flow and groundwater development, we found that the Liulin Springs were in natural conditions before 1973. Using the spring discharge of 1957-1973, we constructed the grey system decomposition model of spring flow in natural conditions. Then we run the model to predict the spring flow from 1974 to 2005. Comparing the predicted spring flow to the observed, we obtained the contribution of human activities to flow decay. The result shows that the contribution of climate change to spring flow decay is only 8.1%-8.6% comparing to anthropogenic effect. Human activities play a more important role in the process of flow decay. In the human activities, groundwater development accounts for 20%-35%, while other factors such as over-exploitation of groundwater in vicinity area, construction of reservoirs, ecosystem destruction, and mine drainage et al account for 65%-80%. Therefore, it is unscientific that simply consider groundwater development as human activities, which make us thought climate change was the main reason to flow decay, it will lead us make the wrong decision to environment. We had applied grey system theory in the groundwater research which simulated the climate change and human activities for influence of spring flow successfully, and afford scientific proof for protection of groundwater.
引文
[1].Jaquet O.,P.Siegel,G.Klubertanz,et al.Stochastic discrete model of karstic networks.Advances in Water Resources,2004,27:751-760.
[2].袁道先.中国岩溶学.北京,地质出版社,1994.
[3].Sweeting,M.M..Karst in China:Its Geomorphology and Environment.Berlin,Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg,1995.
[4].郝永红,王玮,王国卿等.气候变化及人类活动对中国北方岩溶泉的影响-以山西柳林泉为例.地质学报,2009,83(1):138-144.
[5].韩行瑞,鲁荣安,李庆松等.岩溶水系统-山西岩溶大泉研究.北京,地质出版社.1993.
[6].何宇彬,韩宝平,徐超等.中国喀斯特水研究.上海,同济大学出版社,1997.
[7].Alley,W.M.Ground water and climate.Ground Water,2001,39(2):161.
[8].White,W.B.Karst hydrology:recent developments and open questions.Engineering geology,2002,65:85-105.
[9].李砚阁,杨昌兵,耿雷华.北方岩溶大泉流量动态模拟及其管理.水科学进展,1998,9(3):275-281.
[10].Hao Y.H.,Yeh T.J.,Gao Z.Q.,et al.A gray system model for studying the response to climatic change:the Liulin karst springs,China.Journal of Hydrology,2006,328:668-676.
[11].夏日元,郭纯青.岩溶地下水系统单元网络数学模拟方法研究.中国岩溶,1992,11(4):267-277
[12].凤山.中国地下水资源与环境.北京,地震出版社,2002.
[13].郭纯青,李文兴.岩溶多重介质环境与岩溶地下水系统.北京,化学工业出版社,2006.
[14].韩宝平.国外岩溶水文地质学进展.中国岩溶,1993,2(4):400-406
[15].Labat,D.,R.Ababou,A.Mangin.Linear and nonlinear input/output models for karstic spring flow and flood prediction at different time scales,Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment 1999,3:337-364.
[16].Martin,JB,RW.Dean.Exchange of water between conduits and matrix in the Floridan aquifer,Chemistry Geololgy 2001,79:145-165.
[17].Scanlon,B.R.,R.E.Mace,M.E.Barrett,B.Smith.Can we simulate regional groundwater flow in a karst system using equivalent porous media models?Case study,Barton Springs Edwards aquifer,USA.Journal of Hydrology 2003,76:137-158.
[18].White,W.B..Geomorphology and hydrology of karst terrains,Oxford University Press,New York.1988.
[19].Zhang,Y.-K.,E.-W.Bai,R.Libra,R.Rowden,H.Liu,Simulation of spring discharge from a limestone aquifer in Iowa,Hydrogeology Journal 1996.4:41-54.
[20].Dreiss,S.J.Linear kernels for karst aquifers.Water Resources Research,1982,18(4):865-876.
[21].Halihan T.,Wicks C.M.Modeling of storm responses in conduit flow aquifers with reservoirs.Journal of hydrology,1998,208:82-91.
[22].Labat D.,Ababou R.,Mangin A.Linear and nonlinear input/output models for karstic spring flow and flood prediction at different time scales.Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment,1999,13:337-364.
[23].Padilla A.,Pulido-Bosch A.,Margin A.Relative importance of baseflow and quickflow from hydrographs of karst spring.Ground Water,1994,32(2):267-277.
[24].杨天行,王洪涛,谢秀辉.双重介质污染质运移模型研究及其在岩溶区的应用.水文地质工程地质,1989,2.
[25].韩宝平,于礼山,李明等.红岩煤矿岩溶双重介质对降雨响应特征的研究.煤田地质与勘探,1998,2(1):45-47.
[26].潘国营,武强.焦作煤矿区双重介质裂隙网络渗流与渗流模型研究.中国岩溶,1998,12(4):364-366.
[27].薛禹群,吴吉春.面临21世纪的中国地下水模拟问题.水文地质工程地质,1999,(5):1-3.
[28].Guo Q.H.,Wang Y.X.,Ma T.,et al.Variation of karst spring discharge in the recent five decades as an indicator of global climate change:A case study at Shanxi,northern China.Science in Chnia Series D-Earth Sciences,2005,48(11):2001-2010.
[29].Ma,T.,Wang Y.,Guo Q.Response of carbonate aquifer to climate change in northern China:a case study at the Shentou springs.Journal of hydrology,2004,297:274-284.
[30].Hao Y.H.,Jim Y.,Gao Z.Q.,et al.A gray system model for studying the response to climatic change:the Liulin karst springs,China.Journal of Hydrology,2006,328:668-676.
[31].Hao Y.H.,Jim Y.,Hu C.H.,et al.Karst groundwater management by defining protection zones based on regional geological structures and groundwater flow fields.Environmental Geology,2006,50(3):415-422.
[32].Hao Y.H.,Jim Y.,Wang Y.R.,et al.Analysis ofkarst aquifer spring flows with a gray system decomposition model.Ground Water,2007,45(1):46-52.
[33].刘思峰,党耀国,方志耕等.灰色系统理论及其应用.北京,科学出版社.2004.
[34].夏军.灰色系统水文学.武汉,华中理工大学出版社.2000.
[35].Scanlon,B.R.,Mace R.E.,Barrett M.E.,et al.Can we simulate regional groundwater flow in a karst system using equivalent porous media models?Case study Barton Springs Edwards aquifer,USA.Journal of Hydrology,2003,276:137-158.
[36].Zhang Y.K.,Bai E.W.,Libra R.,et al.Simulation of spring discharge from a limestone aquifer in Iowa.Hydrogeology Journal,1996,4:41-54.
[37].Dassargues A.Application of groundwater models in karstic aquifers,IASH Publication,1998,247:7-14.
[38].王学盟,聂宏声,李晋陵.灰色系统模型在农村经济中的应用.武汉,华中理工大学出版社,1989.
[39].卫中平,马来旺等.山西省吕梁市第二次水资源评价.山西,联众出版社,2005.
[2].袁道先.中国岩溶学.北京,地质出版社,1994.
[3].Sweeting,M.M..Karst in China:Its Geomorphology and Environment.Berlin,Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg,1995.
[4].郝永红,王玮,王国卿等.气候变化及人类活动对中国北方岩溶泉的影响-以山西柳林泉为例.地质学报,2009,83(1):138-144.
[5].韩行瑞,鲁荣安,李庆松等.岩溶水系统-山西岩溶大泉研究.北京,地质出版社.1993.
[6].何宇彬,韩宝平,徐超等.中国喀斯特水研究.上海,同济大学出版社,1997.
[7].Alley,W.M.Ground water and climate.Ground Water,2001,39(2):161.
[8].White,W.B.Karst hydrology:recent developments and open questions.Engineering geology,2002,65:85-105.
[9].李砚阁,杨昌兵,耿雷华.北方岩溶大泉流量动态模拟及其管理.水科学进展,1998,9(3):275-281.
[10].Hao Y.H.,Yeh T.J.,Gao Z.Q.,et al.A gray system model for studying the response to climatic change:the Liulin karst springs,China.Journal of Hydrology,2006,328:668-676.
[11].夏日元,郭纯青.岩溶地下水系统单元网络数学模拟方法研究.中国岩溶,1992,11(4):267-277
[12].凤山.中国地下水资源与环境.北京,地震出版社,2002.
[13].郭纯青,李文兴.岩溶多重介质环境与岩溶地下水系统.北京,化学工业出版社,2006.
[14].韩宝平.国外岩溶水文地质学进展.中国岩溶,1993,2(4):400-406
[15].Labat,D.,R.Ababou,A.Mangin.Linear and nonlinear input/output models for karstic spring flow and flood prediction at different time scales,Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment 1999,3:337-364.
[16].Martin,JB,RW.Dean.Exchange of water between conduits and matrix in the Floridan aquifer,Chemistry Geololgy 2001,79:145-165.
[17].Scanlon,B.R.,R.E.Mace,M.E.Barrett,B.Smith.Can we simulate regional groundwater flow in a karst system using equivalent porous media models?Case study,Barton Springs Edwards aquifer,USA.Journal of Hydrology 2003,76:137-158.
[18].White,W.B..Geomorphology and hydrology of karst terrains,Oxford University Press,New York.1988.
[19].Zhang,Y.-K.,E.-W.Bai,R.Libra,R.Rowden,H.Liu,Simulation of spring discharge from a limestone aquifer in Iowa,Hydrogeology Journal 1996.4:41-54.
[20].Dreiss,S.J.Linear kernels for karst aquifers.Water Resources Research,1982,18(4):865-876.
[21].Halihan T.,Wicks C.M.Modeling of storm responses in conduit flow aquifers with reservoirs.Journal of hydrology,1998,208:82-91.
[22].Labat D.,Ababou R.,Mangin A.Linear and nonlinear input/output models for karstic spring flow and flood prediction at different time scales.Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment,1999,13:337-364.
[23].Padilla A.,Pulido-Bosch A.,Margin A.Relative importance of baseflow and quickflow from hydrographs of karst spring.Ground Water,1994,32(2):267-277.
[24].杨天行,王洪涛,谢秀辉.双重介质污染质运移模型研究及其在岩溶区的应用.水文地质工程地质,1989,2.
[25].韩宝平,于礼山,李明等.红岩煤矿岩溶双重介质对降雨响应特征的研究.煤田地质与勘探,1998,2(1):45-47.
[26].潘国营,武强.焦作煤矿区双重介质裂隙网络渗流与渗流模型研究.中国岩溶,1998,12(4):364-366.
[27].薛禹群,吴吉春.面临21世纪的中国地下水模拟问题.水文地质工程地质,1999,(5):1-3.
[28].Guo Q.H.,Wang Y.X.,Ma T.,et al.Variation of karst spring discharge in the recent five decades as an indicator of global climate change:A case study at Shanxi,northern China.Science in Chnia Series D-Earth Sciences,2005,48(11):2001-2010.
[29].Ma,T.,Wang Y.,Guo Q.Response of carbonate aquifer to climate change in northern China:a case study at the Shentou springs.Journal of hydrology,2004,297:274-284.
[30].Hao Y.H.,Jim Y.,Gao Z.Q.,et al.A gray system model for studying the response to climatic change:the Liulin karst springs,China.Journal of Hydrology,2006,328:668-676.
[31].Hao Y.H.,Jim Y.,Hu C.H.,et al.Karst groundwater management by defining protection zones based on regional geological structures and groundwater flow fields.Environmental Geology,2006,50(3):415-422.
[32].Hao Y.H.,Jim Y.,Wang Y.R.,et al.Analysis ofkarst aquifer spring flows with a gray system decomposition model.Ground Water,2007,45(1):46-52.
[33].刘思峰,党耀国,方志耕等.灰色系统理论及其应用.北京,科学出版社.2004.
[34].夏军.灰色系统水文学.武汉,华中理工大学出版社.2000.
[35].Scanlon,B.R.,Mace R.E.,Barrett M.E.,et al.Can we simulate regional groundwater flow in a karst system using equivalent porous media models?Case study Barton Springs Edwards aquifer,USA.Journal of Hydrology,2003,276:137-158.
[36].Zhang Y.K.,Bai E.W.,Libra R.,et al.Simulation of spring discharge from a limestone aquifer in Iowa.Hydrogeology Journal,1996,4:41-54.
[37].Dassargues A.Application of groundwater models in karstic aquifers,IASH Publication,1998,247:7-14.
[38].王学盟,聂宏声,李晋陵.灰色系统模型在农村经济中的应用.武汉,华中理工大学出版社,1989.
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