工业生产空间分布及水污染控制研究
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摘要
随着经济快速增长,工业用水的污染在中国一直是一个严重而普遍存在的问题,产生这一问题的原因,按照现阶段分析,有很大程度上来自很多地区的经济发展战略上仍然依赖于快速工业化,忽视了生产的空间分布和区域水资源环境承载能力的关系。作为一个中小区域,柳州市是一个比较明显而具有代表性的个案,具有研究的现实意义。
为了对柳州市产业空间分布与水污染控制进行研究,本文首先展示了一个专业的系统WPC-ESi(简称ES),这一系统能分析某一个城市的工业污水污染和该城市工业企业经济活动之间的关系。这个系统包括一个核心——决策模型,其次还整合了另外的四个相关相近的副系统。本文先使用该系统对整个柳州市未来五年的总体水污染排放控制压力进行预测,得到了相对可信度较高的预测结果,该结果量化的显示了柳州市未来五年的水污染控制压力将逐步提高。
得到污染总量预测结果以后,本文提出了一个工厂一级水平的集成方法,并使用该方法来评价柳州市过去三年和估测柳州市未来五年的工业生产空间分布与用水污染压力空间分布。该方法基于对离散事件的模拟,能很好将新增的工业项目的规模大小,位置选择(指工业区位理论与产业集群理论),与可能的新增工业产值进行区域整合。然后再根据整合结果,对向区域中河流所排放的COD(化学需氧量)进行分别估算。为了在恢复水环境功能的同时又得到最大的工业产值,本文所制定的水污染控制策略的目标是将所进行的污水排放控制在区域内的每一条河流的承载能力内。结果得到了未来五年柳州市新增产业产值的空间分布和由此带来的水污染控制压力的空间分布,以及因此给当地各个河段带来的污染负荷压力,同时这一结果也显示了在经济快速增长情况下,会一定加重柳州市区域水污染控制压力。
综合以上,本文结果能为柳州市管理者提供各种决策的依据,以保证柳州市经济的合理发展以其可持续性,增强其产业竞争力,促使经济环境和谐发展。本文在最后,在确保水污染控制的前提下,建议柳州市加强其产业集群建设,以提高当地产业空间分布合理性,增强产业集群竞争力。
With fast economic growth, industrial water pollution has been a serious problem ubiquitously in China. More threatening is that lots of economic developing regions still strategically depend on fast industrialization, neglecting the relationship between production's spatial distribution and regional water environmental carrying capacity. As a small region, Liuzhou City is the objective case.
To research regional industrial production's spatial distribution and water pollution control of Liuzhou. This study at first presents an expert system called WPC-ES (ES), which can analyze relationships between industrial water pollution and economic activities of industrial enterprises of a city. The system includes a decision model as its core, which integrates another four closely related subsystems. This system was used to estimate the pressure of water pollution control of Liuzhou City in future, results of which quantitatively showed that the pressure of water pollution control has a increasing trend in next 5 years.
And then, this paper propose a plant-level aggregation method to estimate the spatial distribution of industrial productions and its water pollution pressure of Liuzhou in the future five years. Based on discrete event simulation, newly added industrial projects' sizes, location choices (refer to industrial location theory), and production values are regionally aggregated. COD (Chemical Oxygen Demand) emission into every river reach in the region is calculated respectively. In order to recover the water environmental function, the strategy aims at controlling emission within the carrying capacity of each river reach. The results include the spatial distribution of industrial production values and water pollutions' load in Liuzhou City, and the diversified uncertain bounds of river reaches' COD adoptions, which will aggravate the water pollution.
The resultes of this paper can assist Liuzhou's decision maker to support their strategies, which can ensure the rationality and sustainment of Liuzhou's development. In addition, based on the prediction of industry spatial distribution of Liuzhou City, the paper in the end proposed some strategies to strengthening Liuzhou's industrial cluster, which aim to improve the rationality of the spatial distribution of local industry, and to make its industrial clusters and industrial spatial distribution more competitive.
为了对柳州市产业空间分布与水污染控制进行研究,本文首先展示了一个专业的系统WPC-ESi(简称ES),这一系统能分析某一个城市的工业污水污染和该城市工业企业经济活动之间的关系。这个系统包括一个核心——决策模型,其次还整合了另外的四个相关相近的副系统。本文先使用该系统对整个柳州市未来五年的总体水污染排放控制压力进行预测,得到了相对可信度较高的预测结果,该结果量化的显示了柳州市未来五年的水污染控制压力将逐步提高。
得到污染总量预测结果以后,本文提出了一个工厂一级水平的集成方法,并使用该方法来评价柳州市过去三年和估测柳州市未来五年的工业生产空间分布与用水污染压力空间分布。该方法基于对离散事件的模拟,能很好将新增的工业项目的规模大小,位置选择(指工业区位理论与产业集群理论),与可能的新增工业产值进行区域整合。然后再根据整合结果,对向区域中河流所排放的COD(化学需氧量)进行分别估算。为了在恢复水环境功能的同时又得到最大的工业产值,本文所制定的水污染控制策略的目标是将所进行的污水排放控制在区域内的每一条河流的承载能力内。结果得到了未来五年柳州市新增产业产值的空间分布和由此带来的水污染控制压力的空间分布,以及因此给当地各个河段带来的污染负荷压力,同时这一结果也显示了在经济快速增长情况下,会一定加重柳州市区域水污染控制压力。
综合以上,本文结果能为柳州市管理者提供各种决策的依据,以保证柳州市经济的合理发展以其可持续性,增强其产业竞争力,促使经济环境和谐发展。本文在最后,在确保水污染控制的前提下,建议柳州市加强其产业集群建设,以提高当地产业空间分布合理性,增强产业集群竞争力。
With fast economic growth, industrial water pollution has been a serious problem ubiquitously in China. More threatening is that lots of economic developing regions still strategically depend on fast industrialization, neglecting the relationship between production's spatial distribution and regional water environmental carrying capacity. As a small region, Liuzhou City is the objective case.
To research regional industrial production's spatial distribution and water pollution control of Liuzhou. This study at first presents an expert system called WPC-ES (ES), which can analyze relationships between industrial water pollution and economic activities of industrial enterprises of a city. The system includes a decision model as its core, which integrates another four closely related subsystems. This system was used to estimate the pressure of water pollution control of Liuzhou City in future, results of which quantitatively showed that the pressure of water pollution control has a increasing trend in next 5 years.
And then, this paper propose a plant-level aggregation method to estimate the spatial distribution of industrial productions and its water pollution pressure of Liuzhou in the future five years. Based on discrete event simulation, newly added industrial projects' sizes, location choices (refer to industrial location theory), and production values are regionally aggregated. COD (Chemical Oxygen Demand) emission into every river reach in the region is calculated respectively. In order to recover the water environmental function, the strategy aims at controlling emission within the carrying capacity of each river reach. The results include the spatial distribution of industrial production values and water pollutions' load in Liuzhou City, and the diversified uncertain bounds of river reaches' COD adoptions, which will aggravate the water pollution.
The resultes of this paper can assist Liuzhou's decision maker to support their strategies, which can ensure the rationality and sustainment of Liuzhou's development. In addition, based on the prediction of industry spatial distribution of Liuzhou City, the paper in the end proposed some strategies to strengthening Liuzhou's industrial cluster, which aim to improve the rationality of the spatial distribution of local industry, and to make its industrial clusters and industrial spatial distribution more competitive.
引文
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