我国房地产行业景气波动
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摘要
房地产业是国民经济的重要组成部分,在一个国家和地区的国民经济体系中,有着非常重要的地位和作用。它是国民经济的基础性产业和先导性产业,在一定条件下,房地产业更是国民经济的“晴雨表”。因此,分析我国房地产行业的景气波动,对促进房地产行业和整个国民经济的健康发展,以及维护整个社会的稳定都具有十分重要的意义。作者撰写本论文的目的就是将时间序列中的谱分析估计方法应用到房地产行业景气波动分析中,通过对全国房地产开发投资总额1999-2008年的月度数据进行谱分析,证实了房地产行业对整个国民经济的先导作用,也进一步通过房地产行业的景气波动来预测整个国民经济的景气波动情况。
全国房地产开发投资总额,是住宅投资开发建设及出售数量的指标,反映的是全国范围内的房屋兴建量,一般被认为是未来经济发展的领先指标。本文为了研究房地产行业的景气波动,在实证方面采取了时间序列中的谱分析方法。首先分析了作为先行指数行业的房地产行业景气波动对国民经济周期波动的预测和引导作用,再根据所分析的房地产行业的景气波动,给予国家宏观经济政策以有力的建议,作者对全国房地产行业开发投资总额进行了季节性调整,平稳性检验,剔除了趋势和季节因素后的循环项进行谱分析,把离散的全国房地产开发投资总额样本分解到频域上来进行研究。希望以此来判断房地产行业的景气波动趋势,进一步预测整个国民经济的景气波动。再根据预测结果向国家的相关政府部门提出合理的宏观经济政策建议。
The real estate industry is a complicated sector engaging in investment, development, management and service. It features as fundamental, driving and risky. The three sections in real estate including investment, development, management occupy a 93% proportion of the whole real estate economy, so this thesis commit to analyze the current situation of the development and investment of our country’s real estate industry. From 1999 to 2008, our country’s real estate industry grow dramatically, it has become one of the most important industries in national economical progress.
In the beginning of the year 2008, preferential conditions are spread in buying houses. The developers are eager to boost economy of the real estate through such methods. In 2009, with the loose currency credit policy, lots of money rush into the market of real estate, the vibrant market cause a lot of consumers who urgently need houses give up waiting, and buy the house promptly. The ascents of the housing prices appeal many property investors to seek exorbitant profits. With the interaction of the rigid demand for houses and lucrative market, between 3, 2009 and 7, 2009, many big cities around the country continually hit the records of transaction volume. After the 8, 2009 the transaction volumes continually decrease, so the turning point becomes the focus of people’s talk. Will the property price drop, how much will it drop? Currently, such problems relevant to the property price and fluctuation of the market have become a hot issue.
We name the indicators leading index which expand, contract and hint before the running of the whole national economy. When the leading index rises, it forecast the economy will rebound after a short time, the whole economy prosperity will advent soon. When the leading index descends, it forecast the whole economy will shrink, into the recession period. So, we can speculate the variation of the whole national economical prospect, through analyzing the numerical changes of the leading index.
The overall investment in the development of the national real estate reflects the amount of the construction nationwide. It indicates the number of house being built and been sold, generally it is considered as the leading index for future economical progress. This thesis picks up the data of the national real estate investment between 1999 and 2008 as the original sample. All of the data comes from“Chinese economical prospect report”. Because of the loss of a month’s data, we have to speculate it first. Based on this, we make seasonal adjustment for the monthly data of the national real estate investment, stability also is tested. Such methods ensure the data not to be influenced by the season, or other irregular factors. It is a stable sequence because of no unit root. After the data is preliminarily processed, we take the sum of money invested in the real estate into the frequency domain, then make spectrum analysis. In the end, we ensure the precision of the results.
With the demonstration of this thesis, the result reveals: from 1, 1999 to 12, 2008, the spectrum peak of the money invested in real estate appeared around the year 2000; the spectrum value is relatively high between 1999 and 2005. Through analyzing the third section of the spectrum image, we can deduce that after the year 2006, 2007 or so, the sum of money invested in the land development will gradually decreases. It has also proved, with the impact American subprime mortgage economical crisis, Chinese real estate industry will face a downturn. The spectrum image shows that between 2007 and 2008 the whole investment of real estate goes into the trough lowest for the nearest 10 years; it foretells the coming of the macro-economy crisis.
This thesis can speculate the fluctuation of macro-economical climate index, through the spectrum data analysis of the real estate industry. As we take the total sum invested in the real industry as the leading indictors, it is proved feasible and accurately. But there also exist a series of problems in Chinese real estate market, the housing structural contradiction in some areas is still outstanding, the commercial.
Housing price soars, the supervision system of the market is not perfect, the information system of the market is not complete, etc. The government continues to reinforce the housing security system, stabilize the progress of the real estate market, support the entrepreneur to act positively with the alteration of the market, push forward the sales with a reasonable price, strengthen the speculation and test for the situation of the real estate, reorganize and standardize the order of the real estate market. All of these questions will affect the collection of the data and the construction of the model, and then it will influence the decision and speculation for the whole process of the macro-economy.
全国房地产开发投资总额,是住宅投资开发建设及出售数量的指标,反映的是全国范围内的房屋兴建量,一般被认为是未来经济发展的领先指标。本文为了研究房地产行业的景气波动,在实证方面采取了时间序列中的谱分析方法。首先分析了作为先行指数行业的房地产行业景气波动对国民经济周期波动的预测和引导作用,再根据所分析的房地产行业的景气波动,给予国家宏观经济政策以有力的建议,作者对全国房地产行业开发投资总额进行了季节性调整,平稳性检验,剔除了趋势和季节因素后的循环项进行谱分析,把离散的全国房地产开发投资总额样本分解到频域上来进行研究。希望以此来判断房地产行业的景气波动趋势,进一步预测整个国民经济的景气波动。再根据预测结果向国家的相关政府部门提出合理的宏观经济政策建议。
The real estate industry is a complicated sector engaging in investment, development, management and service. It features as fundamental, driving and risky. The three sections in real estate including investment, development, management occupy a 93% proportion of the whole real estate economy, so this thesis commit to analyze the current situation of the development and investment of our country’s real estate industry. From 1999 to 2008, our country’s real estate industry grow dramatically, it has become one of the most important industries in national economical progress.
In the beginning of the year 2008, preferential conditions are spread in buying houses. The developers are eager to boost economy of the real estate through such methods. In 2009, with the loose currency credit policy, lots of money rush into the market of real estate, the vibrant market cause a lot of consumers who urgently need houses give up waiting, and buy the house promptly. The ascents of the housing prices appeal many property investors to seek exorbitant profits. With the interaction of the rigid demand for houses and lucrative market, between 3, 2009 and 7, 2009, many big cities around the country continually hit the records of transaction volume. After the 8, 2009 the transaction volumes continually decrease, so the turning point becomes the focus of people’s talk. Will the property price drop, how much will it drop? Currently, such problems relevant to the property price and fluctuation of the market have become a hot issue.
We name the indicators leading index which expand, contract and hint before the running of the whole national economy. When the leading index rises, it forecast the economy will rebound after a short time, the whole economy prosperity will advent soon. When the leading index descends, it forecast the whole economy will shrink, into the recession period. So, we can speculate the variation of the whole national economical prospect, through analyzing the numerical changes of the leading index.
The overall investment in the development of the national real estate reflects the amount of the construction nationwide. It indicates the number of house being built and been sold, generally it is considered as the leading index for future economical progress. This thesis picks up the data of the national real estate investment between 1999 and 2008 as the original sample. All of the data comes from“Chinese economical prospect report”. Because of the loss of a month’s data, we have to speculate it first. Based on this, we make seasonal adjustment for the monthly data of the national real estate investment, stability also is tested. Such methods ensure the data not to be influenced by the season, or other irregular factors. It is a stable sequence because of no unit root. After the data is preliminarily processed, we take the sum of money invested in the real estate into the frequency domain, then make spectrum analysis. In the end, we ensure the precision of the results.
With the demonstration of this thesis, the result reveals: from 1, 1999 to 12, 2008, the spectrum peak of the money invested in real estate appeared around the year 2000; the spectrum value is relatively high between 1999 and 2005. Through analyzing the third section of the spectrum image, we can deduce that after the year 2006, 2007 or so, the sum of money invested in the land development will gradually decreases. It has also proved, with the impact American subprime mortgage economical crisis, Chinese real estate industry will face a downturn. The spectrum image shows that between 2007 and 2008 the whole investment of real estate goes into the trough lowest for the nearest 10 years; it foretells the coming of the macro-economy crisis.
This thesis can speculate the fluctuation of macro-economical climate index, through the spectrum data analysis of the real estate industry. As we take the total sum invested in the real industry as the leading indictors, it is proved feasible and accurately. But there also exist a series of problems in Chinese real estate market, the housing structural contradiction in some areas is still outstanding, the commercial.
Housing price soars, the supervision system of the market is not perfect, the information system of the market is not complete, etc. The government continues to reinforce the housing security system, stabilize the progress of the real estate market, support the entrepreneur to act positively with the alteration of the market, push forward the sales with a reasonable price, strengthen the speculation and test for the situation of the real estate, reorganize and standardize the order of the real estate market. All of these questions will affect the collection of the data and the construction of the model, and then it will influence the decision and speculation for the whole process of the macro-economy.
引文
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[5]郑恒.炒楼投机对房地产价格的影响分析[J].预测, 2004, 23(4): 41-44.
[6]施建刚,朱华.影响房价的相关性因素实证分析[J].上海房地产, 2004, 7: 35-39.
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[10] szymon Borak,Kai Detlefsen,Wolfgang Hardle. FFT Based Option Pricing[M]. Berlin:SFB 649 Discussion Paper,2005.
[11]曾尚璀,沈华.基于MATLAB系统的信号FFT频谱分析与显示[J].科学通报, 2000, 16(4): 241-246.
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[19] Karl E.Case,John M.Quigley,Robert J.shiller. Comparing Wealth Effects:the stock market versus the housing market [J].Advance in Macroeconomics, 2005, 5(1): 1-32.
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[21]时筠仑.房地产波动规律研究[D]:博士学位论文.上海:同济大学,2005.
[22]才元.中国房地产业波动对国民经济的影响研究[D]:博士学位论文.长春:吉林大学,2007.
[23] Peijie wang. Econometrics Analysis of the Real Estate Marker and Investment [M].Routledge,2001.
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[26]李深.中国房地产政策走势与房地产企业的对策研究[D]:南宁:2005.
[27]陈磊.我国宏观经济指标周期波动相关性的互谱分析[J].经济统计, 2001: 38-41.
[28]黄建国.现代谱分析的发展及应用(一)[J].数据采集与处理, 1990, 6(1): 47-55.
[29]郭晶;孙伟娟.小波分析理论与MATLAB7实现[M].北京:电子工业出版社,2005.
[30]冉启文,谭立英.小波分析与分数傅里叶变换及应用[M].北京:国防工业出版社,2002.
[31]陈磊.我国转轨时期经济周期波动的谱分析[J].数量经济技术经济研究, 2001: 18-21.
[32]徐梅,李宗耀.谱分析方法在经济波动分析中的应用研究[J].系统工程学报, 1999, 14: 272-275.
[33]詹姆斯D。汉密尔顿.时间序列分析[M].北京:中国社会科学出版社,1999.
[34]曾峣.经济周期与谱分析研究[J].贵州财经学院学报, 1999: 43-46.
[35] Victor Z.Geoftver H. Sequential Signals of Recession and Recover[J].journal of Business, 1982, 55(1): 345-352.
[36]郭仕剑,邱志模,陆静芳. MATLAN入门与实战[M].北京:人民邮电出版社,2008.
[37]李金明、李金荣. MATLAB基础及其应用教程[M].北京:电子工业出版社,2009.
[38]段新生. MATLAB财务建模与分析[M].北京:中国金融出版社,2007.
[39]阳明盛,熊西文,林建华. MATLAB基础及数学软件[M].大连:大连理工出版社,2003.
[40]张树德. MATLAB金融计算与金融数据处理[M].北京:北京航空航天大学出版社,2008.
[41]李正周. matlab数字信号处理与应用[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2008.
[42]刘嵩,罗敏.基于MATLAB的Welch法功率谱估计[J].湖北民族学院学报, 2007, 25(2): 215-216.
[43]张瑜.我国房地产经济周期波动研究[J].经济研究, 2007, 10: 47-48.
[44] Helbling,ThomasF. Housing Price Bubbles - A Tale Based on Housing Price Booms and Busts [J].World Economic Outlook IMF, 2003, 4: 30-41.
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[51] Sock-Yong Phang. House prices and aggregate consumption:do they move together?Evidence from Singapore[J].journal of Housing Economics 2004, 13(2): 101-119.
[2]金海燕.我国房地产宏观调控政策运行过程研究[D]:博士学位论文.哈尔滨:哈尔滨工业大学,2008.
[3] Quigley,John M. Real Estate and the Asian Crisis [J].journal of Housing Economics, 2001, 10(2): 129-161.
[4]苗天青.我国房地产业:结构、行为与绩效[M].北京:经济科学出版社,2004.
[5]郑恒.炒楼投机对房地产价格的影响分析[J].预测, 2004, 23(4): 41-44.
[6]施建刚,朱华.影响房价的相关性因素实证分析[J].上海房地产, 2004, 7: 35-39.
[7] B. christopher,Barry,Mauricio Rodriguez. Risk and return characteristics of property indices in emerging markets [J].Emerging Markets Review, 2004, 5(2): 131-159.
[8] A.P. Stephen,E.R. Stephen,L.B. Waldo. Real Estate Cycles and Their strategic Implications for Investors and portfolio Managers in the Global Economy[J].Journal of Real Estate Research, 1999, 18(1): 7-68.
[9] J.B. Delong,A. Shleifer,L.H. Summers, et al. Positive Feedback Investment Strategies and Destabilizing Rational Speculation[J].The Journal of Finance, 1990, 45(2): 379-395.
[10] szymon Borak,Kai Detlefsen,Wolfgang Hardle. FFT Based Option Pricing[M]. Berlin:SFB 649 Discussion Paper,2005.
[11]曾尚璀,沈华.基于MATLAB系统的信号FFT频谱分析与显示[J].科学通报, 2000, 16(4): 241-246.
[12]梁云芳.我国经济转轨时期房地产增长周期波动[D]:博士学位论文.大连:东北财经大学,2007.
[13]康东霞.金融发展和经济增长关系的谱分析[D]:硕士学位论文.青岛:青岛大学,2005.
[14]金森久雄.景气预测入门[M].东京:日本经济新闻出版社,1977.
[15]梁桂.中国不动产经济波动与周期的实证研究[J].经济研究, 1996, 7: 18-23.
[16] Brown Stephen J;Liu crocker H. A Global Perspective on Real Estate Cycles[D]:Salomon Center series on Financial Markets and Institutions 2001.
[17]韩立达.我国城市房地产预警系统研究[D]:成都:2004.
[18]陈则明.房地产泡沫、房地产热与景气周期的学术观点辨析[J].理论探索与争鸣, 2004, 1: 22-24.
[19] Karl E.Case,John M.Quigley,Robert J.shiller. Comparing Wealth Effects:the stock market versus the housing market [J].Advance in Macroeconomics, 2005, 5(1): 1-32.
[20]贾海.建立全国房地产开发业发展综合指数的初步研究[J].统计研究, 1997, 6: 22-27.
[21]时筠仑.房地产波动规律研究[D]:博士学位论文.上海:同济大学,2005.
[22]才元.中国房地产业波动对国民经济的影响研究[D]:博士学位论文.长春:吉林大学,2007.
[23] Peijie wang. Econometrics Analysis of the Real Estate Marker and Investment [M].Routledge,2001.
[24]张元瑞.关于房地产和住宅发展形式的分析[J].中国房地产, 2003, 4: 4-6.
[25]李国柱.中国房地产市场价格波动数量研究[D]:成都:西南财经大学,2004.
[26]李深.中国房地产政策走势与房地产企业的对策研究[D]:南宁:2005.
[27]陈磊.我国宏观经济指标周期波动相关性的互谱分析[J].经济统计, 2001: 38-41.
[28]黄建国.现代谱分析的发展及应用(一)[J].数据采集与处理, 1990, 6(1): 47-55.
[29]郭晶;孙伟娟.小波分析理论与MATLAB7实现[M].北京:电子工业出版社,2005.
[30]冉启文,谭立英.小波分析与分数傅里叶变换及应用[M].北京:国防工业出版社,2002.
[31]陈磊.我国转轨时期经济周期波动的谱分析[J].数量经济技术经济研究, 2001: 18-21.
[32]徐梅,李宗耀.谱分析方法在经济波动分析中的应用研究[J].系统工程学报, 1999, 14: 272-275.
[33]詹姆斯D。汉密尔顿.时间序列分析[M].北京:中国社会科学出版社,1999.
[34]曾峣.经济周期与谱分析研究[J].贵州财经学院学报, 1999: 43-46.
[35] Victor Z.Geoftver H. Sequential Signals of Recession and Recover[J].journal of Business, 1982, 55(1): 345-352.
[36]郭仕剑,邱志模,陆静芳. MATLAN入门与实战[M].北京:人民邮电出版社,2008.
[37]李金明、李金荣. MATLAB基础及其应用教程[M].北京:电子工业出版社,2009.
[38]段新生. MATLAB财务建模与分析[M].北京:中国金融出版社,2007.
[39]阳明盛,熊西文,林建华. MATLAB基础及数学软件[M].大连:大连理工出版社,2003.
[40]张树德. MATLAB金融计算与金融数据处理[M].北京:北京航空航天大学出版社,2008.
[41]李正周. matlab数字信号处理与应用[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2008.
[42]刘嵩,罗敏.基于MATLAB的Welch法功率谱估计[J].湖北民族学院学报, 2007, 25(2): 215-216.
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