基于MIKE和GIS洪水风险计算的应用研究
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摘要
洪水风险计算即分析不同强度的洪水发生的淹没特征信息及其可能造成的洪灾损失,是洪水风险管理的基础性工作,起着十分重要的作用。由此而绘制的洪水风险图可以综合直观反映某一区域洪灾发生时的淹没特征信息、区域的地理特征信息和社会经济,使洪水风险图成为洪水风险管理的重要科学依据。因此,洪水风险计算对于洪水管理是非常重要的。由于地理信息系统(Geographical Information System, GIS)对现实世界的空间关系认识得更为具体、直观,而且具有强大的空间数据分析和管理能力,因而在洪水风险计算中引入GIS是十分有必要的。
本文比较不同的洪水风险计算方法,根据实际情况采用水力学法结合历史水灾法进行洪水风险计算,在堤防险情模拟与实地考察基础上进行不同溃口、不同频率洪水的一维河道和二维洪泛区相耦合的洪水演进计算,得到洪水淹没范围、水深、历时等洪水淹没特征信息。为了将洪水特征信息以风险图的形式实现可视,应用相关软件实现洪水数据结果的批量处理和分析,以满足制图等使用要求,实现洪水数据的制图可视。本文进而根据相应的洪水淹没结果,对区域的避险建设的单因素进行分析,在地理信息系统环境中使用模糊隶属函数评价分析单因素特征,确定各因素的影响权重后进行模糊综合评价,得到区域的避险建设区划图,为洪泛区的规划建设提供决策信息,进一步扩展洪水风险结果应用范围。
Flood risk calculation is the step that analyzes the probability of different intensity flood occurring and the following loses, and it is the groundwork for flood risk management, acting an important role. Flood risk map drawn from the above step can exhibits flood features, geographic elements and socio-economic information in the submerged area comprehensively and directly, and it can serve as the significant basis for flood risk management. Therefore, flood risk calculation is very important for successfully managing flood. Because Geographical Information System (GIS) has a more specific and direct understanding of spatial relations with its powerful spatial data analysis and management capacity, the introduction of GIS into flood risk calculation is very necessary.
In this thesis, we study the theory and characteristic of different flood risk analysis methods and their relative technical routes. Then hydraulic method combined with history-flood method is adopted for flood risk analysis according to the actual situation. On the base of levee dangerous condition simulation and field visit in vulnerable places, the thesis calculates flood submerging by the way of coupling one-dimension river way and two-dimension flood plain in different vulnerable places and different flood frequency. For the purpose of visualizing flood data in the form of flood risk map, we realize the batch processing of flood result data to satisfy the demand of mapping. Finally, we analyze the single factor that affecting site construction, combining flood submerged area, and then fuzzy membership function is employed to analyze these factors. In the following, division map in the floodplain is figured out by the method of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, so that it can be used to provide decision information for flood plain construction and planning, and expand the application range of flood risk result.
本文比较不同的洪水风险计算方法,根据实际情况采用水力学法结合历史水灾法进行洪水风险计算,在堤防险情模拟与实地考察基础上进行不同溃口、不同频率洪水的一维河道和二维洪泛区相耦合的洪水演进计算,得到洪水淹没范围、水深、历时等洪水淹没特征信息。为了将洪水特征信息以风险图的形式实现可视,应用相关软件实现洪水数据结果的批量处理和分析,以满足制图等使用要求,实现洪水数据的制图可视。本文进而根据相应的洪水淹没结果,对区域的避险建设的单因素进行分析,在地理信息系统环境中使用模糊隶属函数评价分析单因素特征,确定各因素的影响权重后进行模糊综合评价,得到区域的避险建设区划图,为洪泛区的规划建设提供决策信息,进一步扩展洪水风险结果应用范围。
Flood risk calculation is the step that analyzes the probability of different intensity flood occurring and the following loses, and it is the groundwork for flood risk management, acting an important role. Flood risk map drawn from the above step can exhibits flood features, geographic elements and socio-economic information in the submerged area comprehensively and directly, and it can serve as the significant basis for flood risk management. Therefore, flood risk calculation is very important for successfully managing flood. Because Geographical Information System (GIS) has a more specific and direct understanding of spatial relations with its powerful spatial data analysis and management capacity, the introduction of GIS into flood risk calculation is very necessary.
In this thesis, we study the theory and characteristic of different flood risk analysis methods and their relative technical routes. Then hydraulic method combined with history-flood method is adopted for flood risk analysis according to the actual situation. On the base of levee dangerous condition simulation and field visit in vulnerable places, the thesis calculates flood submerging by the way of coupling one-dimension river way and two-dimension flood plain in different vulnerable places and different flood frequency. For the purpose of visualizing flood data in the form of flood risk map, we realize the batch processing of flood result data to satisfy the demand of mapping. Finally, we analyze the single factor that affecting site construction, combining flood submerged area, and then fuzzy membership function is employed to analyze these factors. In the following, division map in the floodplain is figured out by the method of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, so that it can be used to provide decision information for flood plain construction and planning, and expand the application range of flood risk result.
引文
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[3]王静,李娜.山区小流域典型洪水淹没图制作——以江西省黎川县大源水为例[J].中国防汛抗旱,2010,20(2)：56-58.
[4]骆莉,孙淑云,刘学工.遥感影像解译技术在防洪管理中的应用—洪水淹没图[J].水利信息化.中国水利学会第二届青年科技论坛论文集,2005,539-543.
[5]马健明,许静,朱云枫等.国外洪水风险图编制综述[J].中国水利,2005,(17)：29-31.
[6]张旭,万群志,程晓陶等.关于全国推广洪水风险图的认识与设想[J].自然灾害学报,1997,6(4)：61-67.
[7]许有鹏,李立国,蔡国民等.GIS支持下中小流域洪水风险图系统研究[J].地理科学,2004,24(4)：452-457.
[8]周健,柏奎盛,逯馨华等.模糊信息化处理在自然灾害风险分析中的应用及展望[J].应用基础与工程科学学报,2006,14(8)：258-265.
[9]Francisco Nunes Correia, et al. Flood Hazard Assessment and Management:Interface with the Public [J]. Water Resources Management,1998,12(9):209-227.
[10]王义成等.我国洪水风险图编制技术标准化的探讨[J].中国水利水电科学研究院学报,2006,4(1)：8-14.
[11]Chen Shi-rong, et al. Flood Loss Evaluation System Using Remote Sensing And GIS[J]. IEEE Transactions on Geosciences and Remote Sensing,2003,12(6):2511-2513.
[12]T. Takagi, T. Oguchi, et al. Channel braiding and stability of the Brahmaputra River, Bangladesh, since 1967:. GIS and remote sensing analyses [J]. Geomorphology, 2007,85 (3):294-305.
[13]王栋,潘少明,吴吉春等.洪水的风险分析[J].应用基础与工程科学学报,2004,12(7)：134-140.
[14]谭徐明,张伟兵.从灾害研究灾害——美国区域自然灾害风险分析的一种新方法[J].水利发展研究,2002,2(12)：74-76.
[15]M. Besio, A. Ramell, A. Bobbe, et al. Risk maps:theoretical concepts and techniques [J]. Journal of Hazardous Materials,1998,61(1):299-304.
[16]周成虎,万庆,黄诗峰等.基于GIS的洪水灾害风险区划研究[J].地理学报,2000,55(1)：15-24.
[17]唐川,朱大奎.基于GIS技术的泥石流风险评价研究[J].地理科,2002,22(6):300-304.
[18]TANG Chuan, ZHU Jing. Torrent risk zonation in the Upstream Red River Basin based on GIS [J]. J Geographical Sciences,2006,16(4):479-486.
[19]Xiong Ying, Zeng Guang-Minga, Chen Gui-Qiua, et al. Combining AHP with GIS in synthetic evaluation of eco-environment quality—A case study of Hunan Province, China [J]. Ecological modelling,2007,209(2):97-109.
[20]Qiang Wu, Mingyu Wang. A framework for risk assessment on soil erosion by water using an integrated and systematic approach [J]. Journal of Hydrology,2007,337(1): 1.1-21.
[20]Saaty, T.. L. How to make a decision:The Analytic Hierarchy Process [J]. European Journal of Operational Research,1990,48(1):9-26.
[22]Ni-Bin Chang, Ying-Hsi Chang, Ho-Wen Chen. Fair fund distribution for a municipal incinerator using GIS-based fuzzy analytic hierarchy process [J]. Journal of Environmental Management,2009,90(1):441-454.
[23]Abolghasem Sadeghi, Niaraki Kyehyun Kim. Ontology based personalized route planning system using a multi-criteria decision making approach [J]. Expert Systems with Applications,2009,36(2):2250-2259.
[24]陈晓利,祁生文,叶洪.基于GIS的地震滑坡危险性的模糊综合评价研究[J].北京大学学报(自然科学版),2007,2(2)：1-6.
[25]Jason K. Levy. Multiple criteria decision making and decision support systems for flood risk management [J]. Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess,2005,19(6):438-447.
[26]Bheshem, Serwan M. J. Babanb. Developing a GIS based integrated approach to flood management in Trinidad, West Indies [J]. Journal of Environmental Management,2008, 88(4):1131-1140.
[27]Darka Mioc, Gengsheng Liang. Decision Support for Flood Event Prediction and Monitoring [J]. IEEE Transactions on Geosciences and Remote Sensing,2007,7(9): 2439-2442.
[28]Hu Zhuowei, Zhu Liying. Flood Disaster Response and Decision-making Support System Based On Remote Sensing and GIS [J]. IEEE Transactions on Geosciences and Remote Sensing,2007,9(7):2435-2438.
[29]A. Fassio, C. Giupponi, R. Hiederer, et al. A decision support tool for simulating the effects of alternative policies affecting water resources:an application at the European scale [J]. Journal of Hydrology,2005,304(7):462-476.
[30]Iain Brown. Modelling future landscape change on coastal floodplains using a rule-based GIS [J]. Environmental Modelling & Software,2006,21(10):1479-1490
[31]Venkatesh Merwade, Aaron Cook, et al. GIS techniques for creating river terrain models for hydrodynamic modelling and flood inundation mapping [J]. Environmental Modelling & Software,2008,23 (10):1300-1311
[32]Colin R. Robins, Brenda J. Buck,; Amanda J. Williams, Robins, C. R., et al. Comparison of flood hazard assessments on desert piedmonts and playas:A case study in Ivanpah Valley, Nevad [J]. Geomorphology,2008, artical in press.
[33]Marc Bonazountas, et al. A decision support system for managing forest fire casualties [J]. Journal of Environmental Management,2007,.84(12):412-418.
[34]Kirlna Skeppstrom, Bo Olofsson. A prediction method for radon in groundwater using GIS and multivariate statistics [J]. Science of the Total Environment,2006, 367(2):666-680.
[35]赵士鹏,周成虎,谢又予等.泥石流危险度评价的与专家系统集成方法研究[J].环境遥感,1996,11(3)：212-219.
[36]S. Lee, Chang, Choi and E. Shin, et al. Regional Susceptibility, Possibility and Risk Analyses of Landslide in Ulsan Metropolitan City, Korea [J]. IEEE Transactions on Geosciences and Remote Sensing,2001,7(1):1690-1692.
[37]Gavin Fleming, Marnavan der Merwe, Graeme McFerren. Fuzzy expert systems and GIS for cholera health risk prediction in southern Africa [J]. Environmental Modelling & Software,2007,22(10):442-448.
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