中国特色新型工业化水平测度及模式研究
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摘要
长期以来我国主要依靠资源、资金、廉价劳动力的高投入所推动的粗放型、外延型、速度型的增长方式造成了诸多弊端,如经济效益低、资源过度消耗、环境污染严重等。在科学技术迅速发展、经济全球化的新的时代背景下,面对知识经济、信息化和可持续发展的挑战,党的十七大明确提出坚持走中国特色新型工业化道路,这是我们党对实现工业化提出的重大方针。中国完成工业化不能通过传统的工业化道路来完成,必须走中国特色的新型工业化道路。
本文以中国特色新型工业化水平测度及模式为研究对象,结合当前经济发展中亟待解决的资源环境、人口就业、地区差距等重大问题,探寻适应中国基本国情和经济发展特点的中国特色新型工业化道路,既具有重要的理论意义,也有深刻的现实意义。
首先,对国内外有关新型工业化和中国特色新型工业化的理论进展、内涵、特征及模式的相关研究文献进行了综述。结合国内外工业化发展经验,深入剖析中国特色新型工业化的内涵、特征,并从科学发展观、内生增长理论、新制度经济学和发展经济学四个方面深入探讨了中国特色新型工业化道路选择的理论基础。紧接着,理清我国工业发展的历史脉络和现实状况,并且对国外主要工业国工业化模式进行归纳,为中国特色新型工业化水平测度与模式构建提供现实基础。
其次,构建了系统的基于综合赋权法的中国特色新型工业化指标体系。在中国特色新型工业化的内涵和特征分析基础上,为了对我国特色工业化水平进行测度以把握其进程,本文结合层次分析法和因子分析法,提出主观客观相结合的综合赋权法,并构建了一个包含目标层、3个准则、8个主题和34个指标四个层次的中国特色新型工业化指标体系。
在此基础上,对我国以及各地区新型工业化发展水平进行测评。实证结果表明我国新型工业化综合评价指数随着年份的增加保持总体上升的趋势,2005-2008年总体的发展速度相对比较缓慢,平均年增加率仅为12%左右；2008年之后新型工业化出现迅猛增长趋势,年增长率达16%。各地区特色新型工业化发展水平状况的测度结果表明新型工业化发展进展较快的地区一般是在东部沿海地区,而中部地区城市的新型工业化发展普遍处于中级阶段,而大部分处于新型工业化发展底层的地区则属于我国的西北部地区。
本文在充分把握新型工业化内涵,借鉴国内外工业化经验,提出了推进中国特色新型工业化建设的路径和模式,即以科学发展观为主线,结合邓小平理论和“三个代表”重要思想,以内生增长理论、新制度经济学理论和发展经济学为理论指导,借鉴国外新型工业化经验和典型模式,以中国特色为切入点,以动力创新、产业创新和要素创新为驱动力,以城乡统筹、人与自然协调、区域协调和国内国外统筹为保障,以实现经济增长由主要依靠投资、出口拉动向依靠消费、投资、出口协调拉动转变,由主要依靠第二产业带动向依靠第一、第二、第三产业协同带动转变,由主要依靠增加物质资源消耗向主要依靠科技进步、劳动者素质提高、管理创新转变三大转变为目标的新型工业化模式。
最后,论文提出实现中国特色新型工业化的路径,即依托动力创新、产业创新和要素创新“三大创新”和兼顾城乡统筹、人与自然协调、区域协调和国内国外协调“四个统筹”的新型工业化道路。为中国特色新型工业化道路的建设提供一定的理论支撑。
For a long time China's extensive pattern, extension type and speed type of growth which are mainly driven by its resources, capital and cheap labor have resulted in many problems, such as low economic efficiency, excessive consumption of resources and serious environmental pollution and so on. In the new era of rapid development of science and technology and economic globalization context, facing the challenges of knowledge economy, information technology and sustainable development, the Seventeenth National Party Congress clearly adhere to the new path of industrialization with Chinese characteristics, which is our party's major policy of industrialization. To complete industrialization, we must follow the new way with Chinese characteristics rather than the traditional way.
This dissertation is a study of the measure and mode of new industrialization level with Chinese characteristics, integrated with problems of environment, employment, regional disparity and other issues, which need to be solved urgently, in the current economic development. Exploring the new way of industrialization with Chinese characteristics, which adapts to the basic situation of country and characteristics of economic development is of great importance both in theory and practice.
Firstly, this dissertation summarizes the relevant literatures of the domestic and oversea studies of the theory, the meaning, features and the model of new industrialization. It makes a thorough analysis of the meaning and features of new industrialization with Chinese characteristics combined with experience in industrial development at home and abroad. It makes a thorough analysis of theoretical foundations of the choice of the new industrialization road of special features in China through the scientific outlook on development, the endogenous growth theory, the new institutional economics and development economics. And then, it combs the history line and the real situation of industrial development in China and summarizes the industrialization mode of major industrial countries that provides reality basis for measurement and model to new industrialization road of special features in China.
Secondly, in this dissertation we build an index system of new industrialization with Chinese characteristics based on Combination Weighing Approach. On the basis of analyzing the meaning and features of new industrialization with Chinese characteristics, and in order to measure the level of industrialization in China, we use AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process), Factor Analysis Method and Combination Weighing Approach to construct an index system of new industrialization with Chinese characteristics which contains one target layer,3 Principles,8 themes,34 indicators and 4 levels.
On this basis, we evaluate the new industrialization development level of China and several regions. The empirical study shows that the comprehensive index of China's new industrialization maintained an overall upward trend through last few years. In the year 2005 to 2008, the overall pace of development is relatively slow, as well as the average annual rate of increase is only about 12%. The years after 2008 witnessed a trend of rapid growth in new industrialization, which led to annual growth rate around 16%.The evaluation results of the level of development in new industrialization with Chinese characteristics in each China regions indicate that the eastern coastal areas have a more rapid development in general, while the central regions are in the intermediate stage and most of the regions at the bottom of the development are northwest ones.
Fully grasping the content of this new type of industrialization, learning from the experience of industrialization at home and abroad and evaluating the new industrialization development level of China, this dissertation proposes a mode and path for accelerating the construction of new industrialization with Chinese characteristics. This is the new industrialization which firstly, take the concept of scientific development as main line, together with Deng Xiaoping Theory and "Three Represents" theory;secondly, take endogenous growth theory, institutional economics theory and the evolution of economic theory as a theoretical guide;thirdly, learn from foreign experience and the typical model;fourthly, take Chinese characteristics as entry point;fifthly, take power innovation, industrial innovation and elements innovation as the driving force;sixthly, take urban and rural coordination, human and nature coordination, regional coordination and co-ordination of domestic and foreign as protection;seventhly take three major changes of economic growth as the target.It means that change the way of economic growth from depending on investment to relying on consumption, investment and exports, from relying on secondary industry driven to primary, secondary and tertiary industries jointly driven, from relying on increased consumption of material resources to relying mainly on scientific and technological progress, improving the quality of workers, management innovation.
Finally, the dissertation proposes the path to achieve the industrialization with Chinese characteristics. This is a new road to industrialization which relies on dynamic innovation, industrial innovation and elements innovation, i.e. "the three major innovations" and urban and rural areas coordination, human and nature coordination, regional coordination and coordination of domestic and foreign, i.e. "the four co-ordination". Hopefully this will provide some theoretical support to the building of new industrialization with Chinese characteristics.
本文以中国特色新型工业化水平测度及模式为研究对象,结合当前经济发展中亟待解决的资源环境、人口就业、地区差距等重大问题,探寻适应中国基本国情和经济发展特点的中国特色新型工业化道路,既具有重要的理论意义,也有深刻的现实意义。
首先,对国内外有关新型工业化和中国特色新型工业化的理论进展、内涵、特征及模式的相关研究文献进行了综述。结合国内外工业化发展经验,深入剖析中国特色新型工业化的内涵、特征,并从科学发展观、内生增长理论、新制度经济学和发展经济学四个方面深入探讨了中国特色新型工业化道路选择的理论基础。紧接着,理清我国工业发展的历史脉络和现实状况,并且对国外主要工业国工业化模式进行归纳,为中国特色新型工业化水平测度与模式构建提供现实基础。
其次,构建了系统的基于综合赋权法的中国特色新型工业化指标体系。在中国特色新型工业化的内涵和特征分析基础上,为了对我国特色工业化水平进行测度以把握其进程,本文结合层次分析法和因子分析法,提出主观客观相结合的综合赋权法,并构建了一个包含目标层、3个准则、8个主题和34个指标四个层次的中国特色新型工业化指标体系。
在此基础上,对我国以及各地区新型工业化发展水平进行测评。实证结果表明我国新型工业化综合评价指数随着年份的增加保持总体上升的趋势,2005-2008年总体的发展速度相对比较缓慢,平均年增加率仅为12%左右；2008年之后新型工业化出现迅猛增长趋势,年增长率达16%。各地区特色新型工业化发展水平状况的测度结果表明新型工业化发展进展较快的地区一般是在东部沿海地区,而中部地区城市的新型工业化发展普遍处于中级阶段,而大部分处于新型工业化发展底层的地区则属于我国的西北部地区。
本文在充分把握新型工业化内涵,借鉴国内外工业化经验,提出了推进中国特色新型工业化建设的路径和模式,即以科学发展观为主线,结合邓小平理论和“三个代表”重要思想,以内生增长理论、新制度经济学理论和发展经济学为理论指导,借鉴国外新型工业化经验和典型模式,以中国特色为切入点,以动力创新、产业创新和要素创新为驱动力,以城乡统筹、人与自然协调、区域协调和国内国外统筹为保障,以实现经济增长由主要依靠投资、出口拉动向依靠消费、投资、出口协调拉动转变,由主要依靠第二产业带动向依靠第一、第二、第三产业协同带动转变,由主要依靠增加物质资源消耗向主要依靠科技进步、劳动者素质提高、管理创新转变三大转变为目标的新型工业化模式。
最后,论文提出实现中国特色新型工业化的路径,即依托动力创新、产业创新和要素创新“三大创新”和兼顾城乡统筹、人与自然协调、区域协调和国内国外协调“四个统筹”的新型工业化道路。为中国特色新型工业化道路的建设提供一定的理论支撑。
For a long time China's extensive pattern, extension type and speed type of growth which are mainly driven by its resources, capital and cheap labor have resulted in many problems, such as low economic efficiency, excessive consumption of resources and serious environmental pollution and so on. In the new era of rapid development of science and technology and economic globalization context, facing the challenges of knowledge economy, information technology and sustainable development, the Seventeenth National Party Congress clearly adhere to the new path of industrialization with Chinese characteristics, which is our party's major policy of industrialization. To complete industrialization, we must follow the new way with Chinese characteristics rather than the traditional way.
This dissertation is a study of the measure and mode of new industrialization level with Chinese characteristics, integrated with problems of environment, employment, regional disparity and other issues, which need to be solved urgently, in the current economic development. Exploring the new way of industrialization with Chinese characteristics, which adapts to the basic situation of country and characteristics of economic development is of great importance both in theory and practice.
Firstly, this dissertation summarizes the relevant literatures of the domestic and oversea studies of the theory, the meaning, features and the model of new industrialization. It makes a thorough analysis of the meaning and features of new industrialization with Chinese characteristics combined with experience in industrial development at home and abroad. It makes a thorough analysis of theoretical foundations of the choice of the new industrialization road of special features in China through the scientific outlook on development, the endogenous growth theory, the new institutional economics and development economics. And then, it combs the history line and the real situation of industrial development in China and summarizes the industrialization mode of major industrial countries that provides reality basis for measurement and model to new industrialization road of special features in China.
Secondly, in this dissertation we build an index system of new industrialization with Chinese characteristics based on Combination Weighing Approach. On the basis of analyzing the meaning and features of new industrialization with Chinese characteristics, and in order to measure the level of industrialization in China, we use AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process), Factor Analysis Method and Combination Weighing Approach to construct an index system of new industrialization with Chinese characteristics which contains one target layer,3 Principles,8 themes,34 indicators and 4 levels.
On this basis, we evaluate the new industrialization development level of China and several regions. The empirical study shows that the comprehensive index of China's new industrialization maintained an overall upward trend through last few years. In the year 2005 to 2008, the overall pace of development is relatively slow, as well as the average annual rate of increase is only about 12%. The years after 2008 witnessed a trend of rapid growth in new industrialization, which led to annual growth rate around 16%.The evaluation results of the level of development in new industrialization with Chinese characteristics in each China regions indicate that the eastern coastal areas have a more rapid development in general, while the central regions are in the intermediate stage and most of the regions at the bottom of the development are northwest ones.
Fully grasping the content of this new type of industrialization, learning from the experience of industrialization at home and abroad and evaluating the new industrialization development level of China, this dissertation proposes a mode and path for accelerating the construction of new industrialization with Chinese characteristics. This is the new industrialization which firstly, take the concept of scientific development as main line, together with Deng Xiaoping Theory and "Three Represents" theory;secondly, take endogenous growth theory, institutional economics theory and the evolution of economic theory as a theoretical guide;thirdly, learn from foreign experience and the typical model;fourthly, take Chinese characteristics as entry point;fifthly, take power innovation, industrial innovation and elements innovation as the driving force;sixthly, take urban and rural coordination, human and nature coordination, regional coordination and co-ordination of domestic and foreign as protection;seventhly take three major changes of economic growth as the target.It means that change the way of economic growth from depending on investment to relying on consumption, investment and exports, from relying on secondary industry driven to primary, secondary and tertiary industries jointly driven, from relying on increased consumption of material resources to relying mainly on scientific and technological progress, improving the quality of workers, management innovation.
Finally, the dissertation proposes the path to achieve the industrialization with Chinese characteristics. This is a new road to industrialization which relies on dynamic innovation, industrial innovation and elements innovation, i.e. "the three major innovations" and urban and rural areas coordination, human and nature coordination, regional coordination and coordination of domestic and foreign, i.e. "the four co-ordination". Hopefully this will provide some theoretical support to the building of new industrialization with Chinese characteristics.
引文
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