山东黄河标准化堤防工程安全性评价研究
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摘要
黄河是一条举世闻名的“善淤、善决、善徙”的地上悬河,洪水灾害十分频繁,是世界上最难治理的河流,治理黄河的首要任务是保证黄河不决溢,保障大堤的安全。目前山东黄河正在大力推进标准化堤防建设,其建设标准多基于实践经验,建立规范全面的安全评价体系,在未经历洪水检验的情况下,客观的评价标准化堤防工程建设的作用和效果,对于山东黄河标准化堤防工程建设管理以及长期黄河治理规划具有重大的意义。
本文根据堤防工程层次性和动态性特点,把山东黄河堤防安全影响因素作为一个多层次结构体系,通过堤防工程安全因素调查结合专家赋分确定各基础指标的评价值,基于加速遗传-层次分析法相结合的综合评价方法(AGA-AHP)综合评价堤防工程的安全性。
经过相同堤段标准化建设前和建成后的综合安全性评价比较,标准化堤防工程建成后主要通过堤身条件、淤背条件、护坡条件等内部条件的改善,整个堤防的安全保障程度得到很大程度的增强和提高,充分证明标准化堤防建设是必要的,效果是显著的。同时,鉴于标准化堤防建设并没有改善堤基条件、地形条件,堤基土层的透水性问题、老口门堵复段的集中渗漏问题、临河二级悬河甚至堤沟河问题、背河近堤坑塘等问题通过标准化堤防建设尚不能得到彻底的治理和消除,需要其他技术手段和措施彻底根治,这也是标准化堤防建成后进一步提高堤防安全性的关键和重点。
The Yellow River is well known as the elevated river for its serious siltion, frequent dike breaching and channel shifting. It is much difficult to manage for frequent flood disasters. The primary task is to guarantee the safety of the yellow river from dike breaking. Presently the construction of standardizing embankment have been greatly promoted basing on the practical experience. By establishing standard safety evaluation system the function and the effects of the standard embankment can be evaluated objectively without flooding test, which plays a significant role in the construction of embankment standarization and Yellow river planning and management.
The paper takes the embankmen safety influencing factor of the Yellow river in Shandong as the multitiered construction system based on the characteristic of stratification and dynamics of the embankment project.
It evalues the embankment safety based on the accelerating genetic algorithm for computing rank weights in analytic hierarchy process through definiting the evaluation of the base values with the embankment safety factor investigatation and experts estatmation.
By Comparing safety evaluation of the dike after and before stardarized construction in the same section, it shows that the safety ensurement degree will be greatly strengthened and enhanced, and the standardization embankement costruction improved the inner condition such as the body of dike, warping site and slope protection etc. It proves that the standardized embankment is necessary and and the results is remarkable.
Meanwhile the embankment standarization didnt improve the embankment foundation, topographic condition, permeability of the dike foundation layer, leakage of the old breaking point, which need to be settled by some new technology and measures and it is the key point of dike safety.
本文根据堤防工程层次性和动态性特点,把山东黄河堤防安全影响因素作为一个多层次结构体系,通过堤防工程安全因素调查结合专家赋分确定各基础指标的评价值,基于加速遗传-层次分析法相结合的综合评价方法(AGA-AHP)综合评价堤防工程的安全性。
经过相同堤段标准化建设前和建成后的综合安全性评价比较,标准化堤防工程建成后主要通过堤身条件、淤背条件、护坡条件等内部条件的改善,整个堤防的安全保障程度得到很大程度的增强和提高,充分证明标准化堤防建设是必要的,效果是显著的。同时,鉴于标准化堤防建设并没有改善堤基条件、地形条件,堤基土层的透水性问题、老口门堵复段的集中渗漏问题、临河二级悬河甚至堤沟河问题、背河近堤坑塘等问题通过标准化堤防建设尚不能得到彻底的治理和消除,需要其他技术手段和措施彻底根治,这也是标准化堤防建成后进一步提高堤防安全性的关键和重点。
The Yellow River is well known as the elevated river for its serious siltion, frequent dike breaching and channel shifting. It is much difficult to manage for frequent flood disasters. The primary task is to guarantee the safety of the yellow river from dike breaking. Presently the construction of standardizing embankment have been greatly promoted basing on the practical experience. By establishing standard safety evaluation system the function and the effects of the standard embankment can be evaluated objectively without flooding test, which plays a significant role in the construction of embankment standarization and Yellow river planning and management.
The paper takes the embankmen safety influencing factor of the Yellow river in Shandong as the multitiered construction system based on the characteristic of stratification and dynamics of the embankment project.
It evalues the embankment safety based on the accelerating genetic algorithm for computing rank weights in analytic hierarchy process through definiting the evaluation of the base values with the embankment safety factor investigatation and experts estatmation.
By Comparing safety evaluation of the dike after and before stardarized construction in the same section, it shows that the safety ensurement degree will be greatly strengthened and enhanced, and the standardization embankement costruction improved the inner condition such as the body of dike, warping site and slope protection etc. It proves that the standardized embankment is necessary and and the results is remarkable.
Meanwhile the embankment standarization didnt improve the embankment foundation, topographic condition, permeability of the dike foundation layer, leakage of the old breaking point, which need to be settled by some new technology and measures and it is the key point of dike safety.
引文
[1]郭涛,谭徐明.中国历史洪水和洪水灾害的自然历史特征.自然灾害学报,1994.4,3(2)：34-40
[2]李国英.治理黄河思辨与践行.郑州：黄河水利出版社,2003
[3]黄河流域防洪减灾对策研究(中国防洪减灾对策研究).中国水利水电出版社,2002
[4]陈浩,周金星,陈中臣等.黄河中游流域环境要素对水沙变异的影响.地理研究,2002,2l(2)：180-188
[5]张蕾.黄河潜伏着大洪水的隐患.解放军理工大学学报,2000,1(6)：100-103
[6]张同德,李文家,杨希刚.黄河干支流防洪形势、总体布局及治理措施.人民黄河,2002.10,24(10)：6-7
[7]叶清超,尤联元,许炯心,龚国元,陈志清等.黄河下游地上河发展趋势与环境后效.郑州：黄河水利出版社,1997
[8][美]Wiliam J.Petak, Arthur A.Atkisson著,向立云,程晓陶等译.自然灾害风险评价与减灾政策.北京：地震出版社,1993
[9]J.D.O.基佛[爱尔兰].大坝安全和风险分析.水利水电快报,1999.1,20(1)：10-13
[10]A. A. BALKEMA Dikes and Revetments-Design, maintenance and safety assessment. Rijkswaterstaat, Hydraulic engineering Division,,1998
[11]G. M. Salmon& D.N.D. Hartford, Risk analysis for dam safety-part Ⅱ.International Water power& Dam Construction 47(3),1995b, pp 42-47.
[12]张建民.以知识信息产业为依托,展开国家防灾减灾的综合研究.中国软科学,1999.2
[13]匡少涛,李雷.澳大利亚大坝风险评价的法规与实践.水利发展研究,2002,10(2),55-58
[14]何金平,李珍照.大坝结构实测性态综合评价方法研究.大坝观测与土工测试,2000.12,24(6)：20-22
[15]Pilarczyk Krytlan W. Dikes and revetments-design, maintenance and safety assessment[R].Delft:Rijkswaterstaat, Hydraulic Engineering Division,1998.
[16]周小文,包伟力,吴昌瑜.基于堤防检测数据的安全评价模型研究.大坝观测与土工测试,2001.10,25(5)：17-20
[17]周小文,包伟力,吴昌瑜,徐言勇.现代化堤防安全监测与预警系统模式研究.水利学报,2002.6,(6)：113-117
[18]汪自力,顾冲时,陈红.堤防工程安全评估中几个问题的探讨.地球物理学进展,2003.9,18(3)：391-39
[19]张瑞怡,戴其祥,董美丽,张自玉.山东黄河堤防隐患特征与治理对策,人民黄河,2001.9,23(9)：10-11
[20]叶青超,影响黄河下游河道决溢的环境因素(一).人民黄河1994(9)：11-16
[21]叶青超,影响黄河下游河道决溢的环境因素(二).人民黄河1994,16(10)：16-19
[22]陈海峰.山东黄河大堤委编险点险段在“96·8”洪水中的表现及处理建议.人民黄河,1997.5,19(5)：58-60
[23]郭全明,张宝森,仵海英.黄河堤防险情调查分析.地质灾害与环境保护, 2003.9,14(3)：45-49
[24]夏富强,康相武,吴绍洪等.黄河下游悬河决溢风险评价指标体系的构建.地理科学进展.2004(9)：17-23
[25]程映雪,向衍荪,周长春.系统安全评价方法分析.中国安全科学学报,1995.12,5(增刊)42-47
[26]汪应洛主编.系统工程.北京：机械工业出版社,1999.6
[27]Raja Petra kina, Yacovy. haimes, Eugene stakhiv, David A. Risk analysis of dam failure and extreme food risk analysis and management of natural and man-made Hazards.1989,81-1223
[28]秦效启,杨修竹.重大工程灾害风险评估研究.自然灾害学报,1997.5,6(2)：7-10
[29]韩宇平,阮本清,解建仓.多层次多目标模糊优选模型在水安全评价中的应用.资源科学,2003.7,25(4)：37-42
[30]张庆彬.河道堤防工程老化评定初探.水土保持通报.1999.10：21-23
[31]黄健元.模糊集及其应用.宁夏：宁夏人民教育出版社,1999.11
[32]金菊良,魏一鸣,付强,丁晶.层次分析法在水环境系统工程中的应用.水科学进展.2002.7：467-470
[33]金菊良,魏一鸣,付强,丁晶.城市防洪规划方案的综合评价模型.水利学报.2002.11：20-26
[34]金菊良,丁晶.水资源系统工程.成都：四川科学技术出版社,2002.12
[35]邱东著.多指标综合评价方法的系统分析.北京：中国统计出版社,1991
[2]李国英.治理黄河思辨与践行.郑州：黄河水利出版社,2003
[3]黄河流域防洪减灾对策研究(中国防洪减灾对策研究).中国水利水电出版社,2002
[4]陈浩,周金星,陈中臣等.黄河中游流域环境要素对水沙变异的影响.地理研究,2002,2l(2)：180-188
[5]张蕾.黄河潜伏着大洪水的隐患.解放军理工大学学报,2000,1(6)：100-103
[6]张同德,李文家,杨希刚.黄河干支流防洪形势、总体布局及治理措施.人民黄河,2002.10,24(10)：6-7
[7]叶清超,尤联元,许炯心,龚国元,陈志清等.黄河下游地上河发展趋势与环境后效.郑州：黄河水利出版社,1997
[8][美]Wiliam J.Petak, Arthur A.Atkisson著,向立云,程晓陶等译.自然灾害风险评价与减灾政策.北京：地震出版社,1993
[9]J.D.O.基佛[爱尔兰].大坝安全和风险分析.水利水电快报,1999.1,20(1)：10-13
[10]A. A. BALKEMA Dikes and Revetments-Design, maintenance and safety assessment. Rijkswaterstaat, Hydraulic engineering Division,,1998
[11]G. M. Salmon& D.N.D. Hartford, Risk analysis for dam safety-part Ⅱ.International Water power& Dam Construction 47(3),1995b, pp 42-47.
[12]张建民.以知识信息产业为依托,展开国家防灾减灾的综合研究.中国软科学,1999.2
[13]匡少涛,李雷.澳大利亚大坝风险评价的法规与实践.水利发展研究,2002,10(2),55-58
[14]何金平,李珍照.大坝结构实测性态综合评价方法研究.大坝观测与土工测试,2000.12,24(6)：20-22
[15]Pilarczyk Krytlan W. Dikes and revetments-design, maintenance and safety assessment[R].Delft:Rijkswaterstaat, Hydraulic Engineering Division,1998.
[16]周小文,包伟力,吴昌瑜.基于堤防检测数据的安全评价模型研究.大坝观测与土工测试,2001.10,25(5)：17-20
[17]周小文,包伟力,吴昌瑜,徐言勇.现代化堤防安全监测与预警系统模式研究.水利学报,2002.6,(6)：113-117
[18]汪自力,顾冲时,陈红.堤防工程安全评估中几个问题的探讨.地球物理学进展,2003.9,18(3)：391-39
[19]张瑞怡,戴其祥,董美丽,张自玉.山东黄河堤防隐患特征与治理对策,人民黄河,2001.9,23(9)：10-11
[20]叶青超,影响黄河下游河道决溢的环境因素(一).人民黄河1994(9)：11-16
[21]叶青超,影响黄河下游河道决溢的环境因素(二).人民黄河1994,16(10)：16-19
[22]陈海峰.山东黄河大堤委编险点险段在“96·8”洪水中的表现及处理建议.人民黄河,1997.5,19(5)：58-60
[23]郭全明,张宝森,仵海英.黄河堤防险情调查分析.地质灾害与环境保护, 2003.9,14(3)：45-49
[24]夏富强,康相武,吴绍洪等.黄河下游悬河决溢风险评价指标体系的构建.地理科学进展.2004(9)：17-23
[25]程映雪,向衍荪,周长春.系统安全评价方法分析.中国安全科学学报,1995.12,5(增刊)42-47
[26]汪应洛主编.系统工程.北京：机械工业出版社,1999.6
[27]Raja Petra kina, Yacovy. haimes, Eugene stakhiv, David A. Risk analysis of dam failure and extreme food risk analysis and management of natural and man-made Hazards.1989,81-1223
[28]秦效启,杨修竹.重大工程灾害风险评估研究.自然灾害学报,1997.5,6(2)：7-10
[29]韩宇平,阮本清,解建仓.多层次多目标模糊优选模型在水安全评价中的应用.资源科学,2003.7,25(4)：37-42
[30]张庆彬.河道堤防工程老化评定初探.水土保持通报.1999.10：21-23
[31]黄健元.模糊集及其应用.宁夏：宁夏人民教育出版社,1999.11
[32]金菊良,魏一鸣,付强,丁晶.层次分析法在水环境系统工程中的应用.水科学进展.2002.7：467-470
[33]金菊良,魏一鸣,付强,丁晶.城市防洪规划方案的综合评价模型.水利学报.2002.11：20-26
[34]金菊良,丁晶.水资源系统工程.成都：四川科学技术出版社,2002.12
[35]邱东著.多指标综合评价方法的系统分析.北京：中国统计出版社,1991