基于ExternE模型的我国省级区域工业大气污染损失评估
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摘要
粗放型的工业增长模式以及以煤炭为主的能源消费结构造成了我国严重的煤烟型大气污染。大气污染给人体健康以及农作物生长造成了很大的危害,并造成了巨大的经济损失。如何运用定量化和货币化的手段准确评估工业大气污染造成的经济损失对于尚处于工业化发展道路上的我国具有十分重要的指导意义。本文应用ExternE模型对我国工业大气污染造成的经济损失进行核算,一方面是对于我国艰难开展的绿色国民经济核算活动的一项有益尝试和探索;另一方面,核算所得损失也为我国决策者开展环境改善活动提供了效益费用分析的依据。
本文主要研究内容和结论包括:
(1)分析我国工业废气排放实物量并运用熵值法综合评估了31个省、市、自治区工业大气污染物排放强度,并以综合评估结果表征各地区的清洁生产水平。研究发现,我国中部地区在工业废气排放总量以及各类大气污染物排放总量方面数值较大;北京、上海、天津等发达地区污染物排放强度较小,清洁生产水平较高;宁夏、青海、贵州等西部不发达地区污染物排放强度较大,清洁生产水平较低;我国的清洁生产水平与经济发展程度有较大关系。
(2)计算并分析全国31个省级区域在工业废气治理上投入的大气治理成本。总体而言,全国在大气污染治理的投入非常不均衡,最高值(山东)是最低值(西藏)的3700多倍;就各省级区域大气治理成本的构成来看,多数区域运行费用比例在70%-80%左右,新增污染治理投资较弱。
(3)通过对国外“典型设施”、我国大气环境质量标准以及环境影响评价导则等的分析,结合我国国家废气重点监控企业的信息,合理地估计了ExternE模型中所需的基础数据并运用该模型估算了2008年我国工业大气污染损失。结果显示,2008年该损失高达7067.25亿元,其中人体健康损失占90.07%,粮食损失占9.93%。31个省、市、自治区两类损失比例又有所差异,但人体健康损失占的比例均在60%以上。
相关性分析结果显示,运用ExternE模型计算所得的工业大气污染损失与工业废气的物理排放之间存在一定的相关性,一定程度上反映了计算结果的合理性。对比我国各省级区域大气污染治理成本与大气污染损失,发现绝大部分地区治理成本占大气污染损失的比例不到1/3,我国在大气污染治理投入力度仍显不足。
(4)使用工业大气污染损失与我国GDP的比值指标评估我国工业的生态破坏情况。从全国的工业生态破坏情况来看,工业可持续发展态势不容乐观。几近一半的省级区域大气污染侵蚀的地区GDP超过2%,江西、山西、山东、河北、贵州等地的这一指标超过3%,陕西甚至超过了5%。本文对工业大气污染的生态破坏与清洁生产之间的关联度研究结果显示两者之间的相关性不够显著。
(5)我国工业大气污染的政策建议。针对工业大气污染造成的巨额经济损失,本文从工业生产源头、工业生产过程、以及工业生产污染行为的事后处理三个层次提出了相应的政策建议。
Extensive growth model for our industry and coal-dominated energy consumption structure causes serious coal-burning air pollution. Air pollution brings about great harms to human health and the crops, which causes huge economic losses. How to use quantitative and currency means to assess the economic losses of industrial air pollution is meaningful for China which is still on an industrialization development road. The paper uses ExternE model to evaluate the cost caused by air pollution of industry of China. On the one hand, it is a useful attempt and exploration; and on the other hand, the results can provide evidences of benefit and cost for deciders to carry on environmental activities.
The main contents and results of this paper are:
(1) The paper analyzes physical volume of the industrial emissions and uses entropy method to evaluate the emission intensity of kinds of industrial air pollution comprehensively and uses the result to stand for the level of the cleaner production. We found that the middle of China had more industrial emissions; Beijing, Shanghai, Tianjin and other developed areas had low emission intensity, the level of cleaner production was high; Ningxia, Qinghai, Guizhou and other developing areas had high emission intensity, the level of cleaner production was low which stated that the cleaner production related to the level of economic development.
(2) The paper calculates and analyzes the actual atmospheric management cost of the 31 provinces. Overall, the costs on waste gas governance of China is quite uneven, the highest one (Shandong) is the lowest (Tibet) 3700 times; in terms of the composition structure of the actual atmospheric management cost, the operating expense of the most provinces accounts for 70%-80%, the investment cost is insufficiency.
(3) The paper estimates the data of the ExternE model reasonably and uses the model to evaluate the cost caused by air pollution of industry of China on the basis of typical installation, the air quality standards and guidelines for environmental impact assessment of China, and state-monitored enterprises with exhaust emission. The results indicated that the industrial air pollution losses of China in 2008 was as high as 706.73 billions, of which human health damages accounted for 90.07% and crops losses accounted for 9.93%.
Correlation analysis showed that the economic losses of industrial air pollution calculated by the ExternE model was related to physical volume of the industrial emissions, which proved the reasonability of the losses. The paper also made the comparison with the losses and management cost on air pollution of industry, and the latter was less than 1/3 of the former in the most areas. It stated that our investment on air pollution control efforts remained inadequate.
(4) The paper uses the ratio of losses of industrial air pollution to GDP to measure the industrial ecological damage situation. The situation was not optimistic for industrial sustainable development situation in China. Almost half of province areas were over 2%. The number of Jiangxi, Shanxi, Shandong, Hebei and Guizhou was more than 3%, Shaanxi was even 5%. The paper also indicated that the correlation between the industrial ecological damage and the level of cleaner production was not significant.
(5) The paper puts forwards some suggestions about airborne pollution of industry. In terms of the huge economic losses caused by industrial air pollution, the paper provides some advice from the industrial source to industrial process and the management after the industrial pollution.
本文主要研究内容和结论包括:
(1)分析我国工业废气排放实物量并运用熵值法综合评估了31个省、市、自治区工业大气污染物排放强度,并以综合评估结果表征各地区的清洁生产水平。研究发现,我国中部地区在工业废气排放总量以及各类大气污染物排放总量方面数值较大;北京、上海、天津等发达地区污染物排放强度较小,清洁生产水平较高;宁夏、青海、贵州等西部不发达地区污染物排放强度较大,清洁生产水平较低;我国的清洁生产水平与经济发展程度有较大关系。
(2)计算并分析全国31个省级区域在工业废气治理上投入的大气治理成本。总体而言,全国在大气污染治理的投入非常不均衡,最高值(山东)是最低值(西藏)的3700多倍;就各省级区域大气治理成本的构成来看,多数区域运行费用比例在70%-80%左右,新增污染治理投资较弱。
(3)通过对国外“典型设施”、我国大气环境质量标准以及环境影响评价导则等的分析,结合我国国家废气重点监控企业的信息,合理地估计了ExternE模型中所需的基础数据并运用该模型估算了2008年我国工业大气污染损失。结果显示,2008年该损失高达7067.25亿元,其中人体健康损失占90.07%,粮食损失占9.93%。31个省、市、自治区两类损失比例又有所差异,但人体健康损失占的比例均在60%以上。
相关性分析结果显示,运用ExternE模型计算所得的工业大气污染损失与工业废气的物理排放之间存在一定的相关性,一定程度上反映了计算结果的合理性。对比我国各省级区域大气污染治理成本与大气污染损失,发现绝大部分地区治理成本占大气污染损失的比例不到1/3,我国在大气污染治理投入力度仍显不足。
(4)使用工业大气污染损失与我国GDP的比值指标评估我国工业的生态破坏情况。从全国的工业生态破坏情况来看,工业可持续发展态势不容乐观。几近一半的省级区域大气污染侵蚀的地区GDP超过2%,江西、山西、山东、河北、贵州等地的这一指标超过3%,陕西甚至超过了5%。本文对工业大气污染的生态破坏与清洁生产之间的关联度研究结果显示两者之间的相关性不够显著。
(5)我国工业大气污染的政策建议。针对工业大气污染造成的巨额经济损失,本文从工业生产源头、工业生产过程、以及工业生产污染行为的事后处理三个层次提出了相应的政策建议。
Extensive growth model for our industry and coal-dominated energy consumption structure causes serious coal-burning air pollution. Air pollution brings about great harms to human health and the crops, which causes huge economic losses. How to use quantitative and currency means to assess the economic losses of industrial air pollution is meaningful for China which is still on an industrialization development road. The paper uses ExternE model to evaluate the cost caused by air pollution of industry of China. On the one hand, it is a useful attempt and exploration; and on the other hand, the results can provide evidences of benefit and cost for deciders to carry on environmental activities.
The main contents and results of this paper are:
(1) The paper analyzes physical volume of the industrial emissions and uses entropy method to evaluate the emission intensity of kinds of industrial air pollution comprehensively and uses the result to stand for the level of the cleaner production. We found that the middle of China had more industrial emissions; Beijing, Shanghai, Tianjin and other developed areas had low emission intensity, the level of cleaner production was high; Ningxia, Qinghai, Guizhou and other developing areas had high emission intensity, the level of cleaner production was low which stated that the cleaner production related to the level of economic development.
(2) The paper calculates and analyzes the actual atmospheric management cost of the 31 provinces. Overall, the costs on waste gas governance of China is quite uneven, the highest one (Shandong) is the lowest (Tibet) 3700 times; in terms of the composition structure of the actual atmospheric management cost, the operating expense of the most provinces accounts for 70%-80%, the investment cost is insufficiency.
(3) The paper estimates the data of the ExternE model reasonably and uses the model to evaluate the cost caused by air pollution of industry of China on the basis of typical installation, the air quality standards and guidelines for environmental impact assessment of China, and state-monitored enterprises with exhaust emission. The results indicated that the industrial air pollution losses of China in 2008 was as high as 706.73 billions, of which human health damages accounted for 90.07% and crops losses accounted for 9.93%.
Correlation analysis showed that the economic losses of industrial air pollution calculated by the ExternE model was related to physical volume of the industrial emissions, which proved the reasonability of the losses. The paper also made the comparison with the losses and management cost on air pollution of industry, and the latter was less than 1/3 of the former in the most areas. It stated that our investment on air pollution control efforts remained inadequate.
(4) The paper uses the ratio of losses of industrial air pollution to GDP to measure the industrial ecological damage situation. The situation was not optimistic for industrial sustainable development situation in China. Almost half of province areas were over 2%. The number of Jiangxi, Shanxi, Shandong, Hebei and Guizhou was more than 3%, Shaanxi was even 5%. The paper also indicated that the correlation between the industrial ecological damage and the level of cleaner production was not significant.
(5) The paper puts forwards some suggestions about airborne pollution of industry. In terms of the huge economic losses caused by industrial air pollution, the paper provides some advice from the industrial source to industrial process and the management after the industrial pollution.
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