中国化学肥料制造业生产率研究
|
摘要
中国是一个人口众多,而耕地后备资源又相对不足的国家,她能以占世界7%的耕地养活了占世界22%的人口,可以说化肥起到举足轻重的作用。化肥是农业生产最重要的投入要素之一,对提高农产品产量和改善农产品品质具有非常重要的作用。中国化肥年生产量由解放初的3.9万吨上升到2005年的4897.5万吨,化肥施用量在解放初期为1.3万吨,中国的改革开放和化肥工业的迅速发展极大地促进了化肥的需求,化肥消费量以年均16.5%的速度提高,到2005年为5000多万吨,约占世界总消费量的30%。中国化肥的进口量由1980年的544万吨上升到2005年的1397万吨,其中1995年进口量曾达到最高峰为1991万吨。随着中国人口增加、城市化进程加快、人民生活水平的不断提高以及食物结构的不断变化,耕地将不可避免地减少,人地矛盾更加突出,这进一步推动了作为提高农业综合生产能力必不可缺少的重要生产资料一一化肥的需求。
然而化肥生产面临的资源约束越来越强,虽然我国可以通过国际贸易调剂化肥余缺,但作为一个大国,我国不能过度依赖国际市场,因为它是关系到国计民生,影响政治稳定的特殊商品。中国国内的化肥生产与一些发达的化肥生产国相比,在资源及原材料价格、生产成本、规模及技术装备水平、管理水平、营销服务水平等方面都有较大的差距(张红宇、高铁生,2005)。那么如何通过合理配置资源减少资源消耗,降低生产成本,提高中国化学肥料制造业的投入产出效率,直接关系到增加中国国内化肥市场的有效供给,对全社会化肥供需平衡产生非常积极深远的影响。同时实现化学肥料制造业增长的可持续性,是当前面临的一个重要课题。现有文献缺乏对此深入和进一步的研究,特别是实证研究方面。因此本文将以化学肥料制造业为研究对象,以其生产率及效率分析为起点,考察中国化学肥料制造业的生产率及效率的变动趋势,并探讨生产率变动的因素等将有重要意义。
论文在回顾生产率理论、生产率测算方法和中国化学肥料制造业发展的基础上,首先运用基于DEA的SBM超效率模型从传统三大地带,不同地区以及不同经济类型的角度考察了1998—2005年问中国化学肥料制造业的技术效率、纯技术效率、规模效率情况,随后运用TOBIT模型分析了技术装备水平、资本.劳动密度、所有制、企业规模、地理位置、管理水平和时间等因素对中国化学肥料制造业技术效率的影响;再以收敛理论为基础,采用标准差、变异系数及Barro的回归方程等进一步考察中国化学肥料制造业各地区差异的变动态势;然后用基于DEA的Malmquist生产率指数从行业总体和不同地区方面考察了1998—2005年间中国化学肥料制造业的全要素生产率的变动状况,找出肥料制造业增长的源泉:生产效率的改善或是技术进步,并分析了全要素生产率增长及构成部分的主要影响因素;最后根据生产成本和供给理论,探讨化肥供给的影响因素,给出了本文的研究结论和政策含义。
论文根据1998—2005年间的省际面板数据,采用非参数方法及其它计量经济方法,通过必要的实证分析和检验,得出以下结论:
(1)使用非参数方法从总体、不同地区、不同经济类型等角度对中国化学肥料制造业的技术效率进行测算,结果表明,中国化学肥料制造业全国的平均技术效率水平虽有波动,但总体是上升的,从1998年的0.8525上升到2005年的0.8882,年平均技术效率水平为0.8626,与可变艄艮酬下的纯技术效率水平0.8703相比,不变规模报酬下的技术效率水平要低0.77%。再从传统三大地区来看,东部地区的年均技术效率水平高于中部和西部,且技术效率水平分别是0.8768,0.8599和0.8519。对于不同类型的企业而言,无论是横向比较还是纵向比较,国有企业的技术效率水平都相对较低,且低于当年的平均水平。技术效率水平由低到高依次是股份合作企业、集体企业、股份制企业、私营企业、其他企业和外商港澳台企业,且外商港澳台企业的技术效率平均水平高达0.3062,是国有企业的1.75倍。
(2)本文考察了不同技术装备水平、资本-劳动密度、所有制、企业规模、地理位置、管理水平和时间等主要变量对中国化学肥料制造业技术效率的影响,在理论分析的基础上,实证检验了它们对技术效率的作用方向和影响程度。资本-劳动密度、企业规模、集聚水平对中国化学肥料制造业技术效率产生明显的反作用,而时间、企业销售费用和地理位置对中国化学肥料制造业技术效率产生显著的积极作用,其他因素对技术效率的影响均无统计上的显著性。
(3)在分析收敛定义的基础上,用标准差、变异系数和Barro的回归方程来验证了全国范围内和三大地区内部技术效率的收敛情况。在1998—2002年间,东部、中部、西部乃至全国的技术效率之间的差距随时间的推移均呈现非常明显的收敛迹象。在2002—2005年间,只有西部地区的技术效率之间的差距出现了收敛迹象且不明显,东部、中部和全国的技术效率之间的差距都出现了发散趋势。在样本的整个研究期间即1998—2005年间,总体看来,不管是东部、中部、西部还是全国,其技术效率之间的差距都出现不同明显程度的收敛态势。
(4)从行业总体考察中国化学肥料制造业生产率变动,研究显示,中国化学肥料制造业全要素生产率在1998—2005年间,除1998—1999年度有所下降外,其他年度均表现为持续提高。东部地区全要素生产率的变化情况与全国相似;中部地区除了2000—2001年度全要素生产率水平有所下降外,其他年份全要素生产率水平得到了提升;西部地区的全要素生产率水平只在1998—1999和2002—2003两个年度表现为下降。从总体平均来看,全要素生产率的年平均增长率为0.6%,技术效率的年平均增长率为0.5%,技术进步的年平均增长率为0.2%,全要素生产率的增长是由技术效率改善与技术进步上升共同作用的结果,但更主要地取决于技术效率的明显提升。
(5)从不同地区角度来看,中国肥料制造业生产率变动的结果显示,在1998—2005年期间,东部地区全要素生产率的变化情况与全国相似;中部地区除了2000—2001年度全要素生产率水平有所下降外,其他年份全要素生产率水平得到了提升;西部地区的全要素生产率水平只在1998—1999和2002—2003两个年度表现为下降。东部、中部和西部地区,中国肥料制造业全要素生产率的年平均增长率分别为0.60%、0.33%和0.89%,主要原因是技术效率改善和技术进步水平提高共同作用的结果。具体到各省市,只有北京和吉林两省市的全要素生产率指数小于1,且分别为0.9872和0.9772,其他省份的全要素生产率指数大于1;北京、广东、山西、吉林和甘肃省的技术效率指数小于1,其他省份的技术效率指数大于1;上海和青海的技术进步指数小于1,其他省份的技术进步指数大于1。
(6)本文检验了资本-劳动密度、化肥价格指数、原材料、燃料、动力价格、所有制结构变化、企业规模、企业的销售费用、管理费用和市场占有率等主要变量对中国化学肥料制造业生产率增长及构成的影响。其中,企业规模对生产率增长及构成都有显著的影响;资本-劳动密度和市场占有率对全要素生产率的增长和技术效率的变化均产生显著的负影响,对技术进步有积极作用但不明显;化肥零售价格和管理费用对技术进步有明显的促进作用,对技术效率的改善却有显著的负影响,二者对全要素生产率的增长作用不明显;企业的销售费用也是只对技术进步和技术效率改善产生明显的正、负影响,而对全要素生产率的增长作用不明显;原材料、燃料、动力价格对生产率增长及构成都没有显著的影响作用。
(7)实证分析了化肥供给的影响因素,结果表明,原材料、燃料动力等价格变化、化肥税收政策与进出口政策对化肥供给的变化均产生负面影响,且都通过了显著性检验,而技术效率的变化、化肥零售价格的变化、农作物总播种面积和惠农政策对化肥供给的变化产生正向作用,也都通过了显著性检验。农作物种植结构的变化对化肥供给的变化产生正向影响,但没有通过显著性检验。我们可看到,在化肥供给的影响因素中,技术效率的变化对化肥供给的影响是最明显的,且技术效率每提高1%,化肥供给量就增加4.7057%。
China is a populous country with relatively low back-up cultivated resources; Fertilizers greatly contribute to world's 22%population fed by 7%arable land of the world. Fertilizers are one of the most important investment factors for agricultural production,as well as the improvement of agricultural qualities and quantities.The annual aggregate of production increases from 39,000 tons prior to the founding of China to 48975,000 tons in 2005.The number of fertilizers application was 13,000 tons during the initial stage of country liberty period.China's reform and opening up to the outside and rapid development in the field of fertilizers greatly facilitate the demand for fertilizers.The fertilizers consumption grows at the speed of 16.5%annually reach over 50million tons in 2005, approximately account for 30%of the total amount in the world.The fertilizers export amount rises up from 5,440,000 tons in the yeas of 1980 to 13,970,000 tons in 2005,in the year of 1995,the imported fertilizers reached the peak at 19,910,000 tons.With population grows,urbanization processing accelerates,upgrading the level of life for the people,and food structure changes,arable lands will be bound to result in diminish,the contradiction between human beings and lands is sharpening.Fertilizers are still the indispensable important productive materials,which will further spur requirements for fertilizers.
However,fertilizer industry is facing more and more resources restrictions;we can swap oversupply or shortage of fertilizers through international trade.But as a large country, we cannot rely on world market excessively,for the product of fertilizer is a specific commodity,impacting on political stability and related to national well-being and people's livelihood.Furthermore,the domestic fertilizer production has a big disparity from some fertilizer developed countries in raw materials prices,cost,scales,technological equipment level,management level,and marketing service level.Therefore,reasonable allocation of resources,cost reduction,and input-output efficiency promotion in fertilizers manufacturing industry have a rather important significance on domestic fertilizers markets effective supply,and take positive and profound influence on fertilizers' supply and demand balance.Meanwhile,the sustainable growth of fertilizer manufacturing industry is a major theme we are facing.How about the productivity of regional fertilizer manufacturing industry? Does the chang of productivity tend to be the convergence or the divergence? What is the factor that takes influences on productivity? The current presence of documentary is lacking in-depth research,especially demonstration's examples.
Looking back theories on productivity,calculating measures for productivity and the development of Chinese fertilizer manufacturing,of which are the basis of this thesis. taking Chinese fertilizer manufacturing industry as a research object,from three traditional zones,various regions and different economic patterns,this paper studies Chinese fertilizer manufacturing industry's technological efficiency,pure technological efficiency,scale efficiency from 1998-2005,later in the paper analysis the influences of equipment level, capital-labor density,ownership,enterprise scale,geographical position,managerial level and timing on Chinese fertilizer manufacturing industries' technology.On the top of that, on the basis of convergence theories,adopt standard,variation coefficient and Barro regression equations to further explore the Chinese fertilizer manufacturing industries'fluctuations in different regions,in the light of fluctuations of Chinese fertilizer manufacturing industries in different regions and general from 1998-2005,discover the resources of continuous increases of Chinese fertilizer manufacturing industry,productive efficiency improvement or technological advancement,and analysis the main influential factors for total factors productivity increases and composition.
Last but not the least,according to productive cost and supply theory,this paper discusses the influences of productive efficiency on the supply and demand of fertilizer,and proposes the conclusion and policy suggestions.
On the basis of provincial panel statistics from 1998 to 2005,adopting non-parameter and other measuring ways for economy,through the necessary theory analysis and the empirical test,some main conclusion about this paper are listed as follows:
(1) Calculating Chinese fertilizer manufacturing industries' technological efficiency through non- parameter way from different regions,different economic patterns and in general.The result reflects the per capita technological efficiency level in Chinese fertilizer manufacture fluctuates,while it tend to increase in general.It grows from 0.8525 to 0.8882 from the year of 1998 to 2005,the annual per capita technological efficiency is 0.8626, 0.77%lower than the technological efficiency under the context of fixed scale pay.Then we can find that annual technological efficiency is 0.8768,0.8599 and 0.8519 respectively in three traditional regions,higher than the middle and west parts of China.Compare it vertically or horizontally,the overall technological efficiency of state-owned enterprises is relatively low,even lower than this year's average level.The efficiency level ranks are from low to top level,collective corporations,shareholders corporations,private sectors,other corporations and overseas,Hongkong,Macro&Taiwan corporations,among of them, technological efficiency average level of the typ ecorporation of the overseas Hongkong, Macro&Talwan corporations is top to 0.3062,being 1.75 times of that of state-owned enterprises.
(2) This paper has studied the main influences of different technological and equipment level,capital-labor density,ownership,enterprise scale,geographical locations, managerial and timing on the technological efficiency of Chinese fertilizer manufacturing industry.On the basis of theory analysis,experiment inspects the influential directions and depth on technological efficiency.Capital-labor density,enterprises scale,gathering level have taken a remarkable adverse effect on Chinese fertilizer manufacturing industry technological efficiency,while time,enterprise sale cost and geographical position have taken positive roles.Other factors don't have remarkable influences in statistics.
(3) On the basis of convergence,this paper demonstrates the situations of internal technological efficiency within the state and in the three regions inspected with standard deviation,coefficient of variation,and Barro regression equation.From the year of 1998 to 2002,the disparity of technological efficiency levels between the east,west and nation has revealed an obvious convergence phenomenon as time went by.From 2002 to 2005,only disparity of technological efficiency level in west parts are not obvious and emerged convergence phenomenon.Emission trends can be found in the technological efficiency level in the east,middle and the whole country.During the whole research period,namely from 1998-2005,generally,no matter in the east,middle,west or the whole country,the gaps of their technological efficient level between east,west,middle,or the whole country reflect convergence trend in degrees.
(4) Exploring Chinese fertilizer industry productivity fluctuation stems from the general conditions of this industry.Researches reveal Chinese fertilizer industries' total factors productivity ascend range from 1998 to 2005,except a period from 1998-1999.Total factors productivity fluctuations happened in the east are as same as it happened in other parts of china.The middle parts of china secure growth,while in the year of 2000 and 2001, total factor production level decreases a bit.The west regions rise up in general apart from 1998 to 1999 and 2002 to 2003.Accompanied by the improvement of annual growth of technological efficiency and technological progresses,and mainly contributed to the obvious promotion of technological efficiency,total factor productivity obtains increases.
(5) Fertilizer manufacturing industry productivity fluctuations in different regions reveal that during the period from 1998 to 2005,the fluctuating of total factor productivity in east is as similar as it happened in the whole country.Except from 2000 to 2001,total factor productivity level decrease,while in the rest years it ascended.In the west,only during two periods from 1998 to 1999,and from 2002 to 2003,total factor productivity went down the hill.The average growth of fertilizer manufacturing industry in the middle and west are 0.6%,0.33%and 0.89%respectively,which are mainly contributed to technological efficiency improvement and technological level advancement.Specifically, other provinces' total factor productivity index are bigger than 1,only Beijing and Jilin differs from it,0.9872 and 0.9772 respectively.Technological efficiency index are below 1 in Beijing,Guangdong,Shanxi,Jilin and Gansu provinces,other provinces with index below 1;technological advances index in shanghai and Qinghai are smaller than 1,other provinces are bigger than 1.
(6) This paper has examined capital-labor intensive density,fertilizer price index,raw materials,fuels,powerful prices,ownership structure changes,corporate scale,enterprise sale and managerial cost and market occupation rate,of which have imposed influences on Chinese fertilizer productivity growth and composition.Enterprise scales have remarkable influences on the growth of productivity and composition.Capital-labor density and market occupation have taken remarkable negative effects on total factor productivity growth and technological efficiency changes,and positive functions over technological efficiency improvement but not obvious.Having no obvious functions on promote all factor productivity,fertilizer retail price and managerial expense.have obvious improvement to technological advances,and remarkable negative effects on technological efficiency improvement.Enterprises sale costs have bring about great positive and negative influences on technological advances and technological efficiency improvement,and play insignificant role in all factor productivity growth.Raw materials,fuels,power prices have taken a negligible role in productivity improvement and composition.
(7) This paper analysis the factors of fertilizer supply.The result reveals that raw materials & fuels power prices,national revenue policies and import & export of fetilizer have brought great adverse effects.Change of technological efficiency,the planting areas of crops and policies of favour agriculture,favour country and favour farmer have take remarkable positive influences.Agricultural plant structure has positive effect on fertilize suplly,which is not conspicuous in statistics.Especially,change of technological efficiency is the most important element of which take effect on fertilizer supply.
然而化肥生产面临的资源约束越来越强,虽然我国可以通过国际贸易调剂化肥余缺,但作为一个大国,我国不能过度依赖国际市场,因为它是关系到国计民生,影响政治稳定的特殊商品。中国国内的化肥生产与一些发达的化肥生产国相比,在资源及原材料价格、生产成本、规模及技术装备水平、管理水平、营销服务水平等方面都有较大的差距(张红宇、高铁生,2005)。那么如何通过合理配置资源减少资源消耗,降低生产成本,提高中国化学肥料制造业的投入产出效率,直接关系到增加中国国内化肥市场的有效供给,对全社会化肥供需平衡产生非常积极深远的影响。同时实现化学肥料制造业增长的可持续性,是当前面临的一个重要课题。现有文献缺乏对此深入和进一步的研究,特别是实证研究方面。因此本文将以化学肥料制造业为研究对象,以其生产率及效率分析为起点,考察中国化学肥料制造业的生产率及效率的变动趋势,并探讨生产率变动的因素等将有重要意义。
论文在回顾生产率理论、生产率测算方法和中国化学肥料制造业发展的基础上,首先运用基于DEA的SBM超效率模型从传统三大地带,不同地区以及不同经济类型的角度考察了1998—2005年问中国化学肥料制造业的技术效率、纯技术效率、规模效率情况,随后运用TOBIT模型分析了技术装备水平、资本.劳动密度、所有制、企业规模、地理位置、管理水平和时间等因素对中国化学肥料制造业技术效率的影响;再以收敛理论为基础,采用标准差、变异系数及Barro的回归方程等进一步考察中国化学肥料制造业各地区差异的变动态势;然后用基于DEA的Malmquist生产率指数从行业总体和不同地区方面考察了1998—2005年间中国化学肥料制造业的全要素生产率的变动状况,找出肥料制造业增长的源泉:生产效率的改善或是技术进步,并分析了全要素生产率增长及构成部分的主要影响因素;最后根据生产成本和供给理论,探讨化肥供给的影响因素,给出了本文的研究结论和政策含义。
论文根据1998—2005年间的省际面板数据,采用非参数方法及其它计量经济方法,通过必要的实证分析和检验,得出以下结论:
(1)使用非参数方法从总体、不同地区、不同经济类型等角度对中国化学肥料制造业的技术效率进行测算,结果表明,中国化学肥料制造业全国的平均技术效率水平虽有波动,但总体是上升的,从1998年的0.8525上升到2005年的0.8882,年平均技术效率水平为0.8626,与可变艄艮酬下的纯技术效率水平0.8703相比,不变规模报酬下的技术效率水平要低0.77%。再从传统三大地区来看,东部地区的年均技术效率水平高于中部和西部,且技术效率水平分别是0.8768,0.8599和0.8519。对于不同类型的企业而言,无论是横向比较还是纵向比较,国有企业的技术效率水平都相对较低,且低于当年的平均水平。技术效率水平由低到高依次是股份合作企业、集体企业、股份制企业、私营企业、其他企业和外商港澳台企业,且外商港澳台企业的技术效率平均水平高达0.3062,是国有企业的1.75倍。
(2)本文考察了不同技术装备水平、资本-劳动密度、所有制、企业规模、地理位置、管理水平和时间等主要变量对中国化学肥料制造业技术效率的影响,在理论分析的基础上,实证检验了它们对技术效率的作用方向和影响程度。资本-劳动密度、企业规模、集聚水平对中国化学肥料制造业技术效率产生明显的反作用,而时间、企业销售费用和地理位置对中国化学肥料制造业技术效率产生显著的积极作用,其他因素对技术效率的影响均无统计上的显著性。
(3)在分析收敛定义的基础上,用标准差、变异系数和Barro的回归方程来验证了全国范围内和三大地区内部技术效率的收敛情况。在1998—2002年间,东部、中部、西部乃至全国的技术效率之间的差距随时间的推移均呈现非常明显的收敛迹象。在2002—2005年间,只有西部地区的技术效率之间的差距出现了收敛迹象且不明显,东部、中部和全国的技术效率之间的差距都出现了发散趋势。在样本的整个研究期间即1998—2005年间,总体看来,不管是东部、中部、西部还是全国,其技术效率之间的差距都出现不同明显程度的收敛态势。
(4)从行业总体考察中国化学肥料制造业生产率变动,研究显示,中国化学肥料制造业全要素生产率在1998—2005年间,除1998—1999年度有所下降外,其他年度均表现为持续提高。东部地区全要素生产率的变化情况与全国相似;中部地区除了2000—2001年度全要素生产率水平有所下降外,其他年份全要素生产率水平得到了提升;西部地区的全要素生产率水平只在1998—1999和2002—2003两个年度表现为下降。从总体平均来看,全要素生产率的年平均增长率为0.6%,技术效率的年平均增长率为0.5%,技术进步的年平均增长率为0.2%,全要素生产率的增长是由技术效率改善与技术进步上升共同作用的结果,但更主要地取决于技术效率的明显提升。
(5)从不同地区角度来看,中国肥料制造业生产率变动的结果显示,在1998—2005年期间,东部地区全要素生产率的变化情况与全国相似;中部地区除了2000—2001年度全要素生产率水平有所下降外,其他年份全要素生产率水平得到了提升;西部地区的全要素生产率水平只在1998—1999和2002—2003两个年度表现为下降。东部、中部和西部地区,中国肥料制造业全要素生产率的年平均增长率分别为0.60%、0.33%和0.89%,主要原因是技术效率改善和技术进步水平提高共同作用的结果。具体到各省市,只有北京和吉林两省市的全要素生产率指数小于1,且分别为0.9872和0.9772,其他省份的全要素生产率指数大于1;北京、广东、山西、吉林和甘肃省的技术效率指数小于1,其他省份的技术效率指数大于1;上海和青海的技术进步指数小于1,其他省份的技术进步指数大于1。
(6)本文检验了资本-劳动密度、化肥价格指数、原材料、燃料、动力价格、所有制结构变化、企业规模、企业的销售费用、管理费用和市场占有率等主要变量对中国化学肥料制造业生产率增长及构成的影响。其中,企业规模对生产率增长及构成都有显著的影响;资本-劳动密度和市场占有率对全要素生产率的增长和技术效率的变化均产生显著的负影响,对技术进步有积极作用但不明显;化肥零售价格和管理费用对技术进步有明显的促进作用,对技术效率的改善却有显著的负影响,二者对全要素生产率的增长作用不明显;企业的销售费用也是只对技术进步和技术效率改善产生明显的正、负影响,而对全要素生产率的增长作用不明显;原材料、燃料、动力价格对生产率增长及构成都没有显著的影响作用。
(7)实证分析了化肥供给的影响因素,结果表明,原材料、燃料动力等价格变化、化肥税收政策与进出口政策对化肥供给的变化均产生负面影响,且都通过了显著性检验,而技术效率的变化、化肥零售价格的变化、农作物总播种面积和惠农政策对化肥供给的变化产生正向作用,也都通过了显著性检验。农作物种植结构的变化对化肥供给的变化产生正向影响,但没有通过显著性检验。我们可看到,在化肥供给的影响因素中,技术效率的变化对化肥供给的影响是最明显的,且技术效率每提高1%,化肥供给量就增加4.7057%。
China is a populous country with relatively low back-up cultivated resources; Fertilizers greatly contribute to world's 22%population fed by 7%arable land of the world. Fertilizers are one of the most important investment factors for agricultural production,as well as the improvement of agricultural qualities and quantities.The annual aggregate of production increases from 39,000 tons prior to the founding of China to 48975,000 tons in 2005.The number of fertilizers application was 13,000 tons during the initial stage of country liberty period.China's reform and opening up to the outside and rapid development in the field of fertilizers greatly facilitate the demand for fertilizers.The fertilizers consumption grows at the speed of 16.5%annually reach over 50million tons in 2005, approximately account for 30%of the total amount in the world.The fertilizers export amount rises up from 5,440,000 tons in the yeas of 1980 to 13,970,000 tons in 2005,in the year of 1995,the imported fertilizers reached the peak at 19,910,000 tons.With population grows,urbanization processing accelerates,upgrading the level of life for the people,and food structure changes,arable lands will be bound to result in diminish,the contradiction between human beings and lands is sharpening.Fertilizers are still the indispensable important productive materials,which will further spur requirements for fertilizers.
However,fertilizer industry is facing more and more resources restrictions;we can swap oversupply or shortage of fertilizers through international trade.But as a large country, we cannot rely on world market excessively,for the product of fertilizer is a specific commodity,impacting on political stability and related to national well-being and people's livelihood.Furthermore,the domestic fertilizer production has a big disparity from some fertilizer developed countries in raw materials prices,cost,scales,technological equipment level,management level,and marketing service level.Therefore,reasonable allocation of resources,cost reduction,and input-output efficiency promotion in fertilizers manufacturing industry have a rather important significance on domestic fertilizers markets effective supply,and take positive and profound influence on fertilizers' supply and demand balance.Meanwhile,the sustainable growth of fertilizer manufacturing industry is a major theme we are facing.How about the productivity of regional fertilizer manufacturing industry? Does the chang of productivity tend to be the convergence or the divergence? What is the factor that takes influences on productivity? The current presence of documentary is lacking in-depth research,especially demonstration's examples.
Looking back theories on productivity,calculating measures for productivity and the development of Chinese fertilizer manufacturing,of which are the basis of this thesis. taking Chinese fertilizer manufacturing industry as a research object,from three traditional zones,various regions and different economic patterns,this paper studies Chinese fertilizer manufacturing industry's technological efficiency,pure technological efficiency,scale efficiency from 1998-2005,later in the paper analysis the influences of equipment level, capital-labor density,ownership,enterprise scale,geographical position,managerial level and timing on Chinese fertilizer manufacturing industries' technology.On the top of that, on the basis of convergence theories,adopt standard,variation coefficient and Barro regression equations to further explore the Chinese fertilizer manufacturing industries'fluctuations in different regions,in the light of fluctuations of Chinese fertilizer manufacturing industries in different regions and general from 1998-2005,discover the resources of continuous increases of Chinese fertilizer manufacturing industry,productive efficiency improvement or technological advancement,and analysis the main influential factors for total factors productivity increases and composition.
Last but not the least,according to productive cost and supply theory,this paper discusses the influences of productive efficiency on the supply and demand of fertilizer,and proposes the conclusion and policy suggestions.
On the basis of provincial panel statistics from 1998 to 2005,adopting non-parameter and other measuring ways for economy,through the necessary theory analysis and the empirical test,some main conclusion about this paper are listed as follows:
(1) Calculating Chinese fertilizer manufacturing industries' technological efficiency through non- parameter way from different regions,different economic patterns and in general.The result reflects the per capita technological efficiency level in Chinese fertilizer manufacture fluctuates,while it tend to increase in general.It grows from 0.8525 to 0.8882 from the year of 1998 to 2005,the annual per capita technological efficiency is 0.8626, 0.77%lower than the technological efficiency under the context of fixed scale pay.Then we can find that annual technological efficiency is 0.8768,0.8599 and 0.8519 respectively in three traditional regions,higher than the middle and west parts of China.Compare it vertically or horizontally,the overall technological efficiency of state-owned enterprises is relatively low,even lower than this year's average level.The efficiency level ranks are from low to top level,collective corporations,shareholders corporations,private sectors,other corporations and overseas,Hongkong,Macro&Taiwan corporations,among of them, technological efficiency average level of the typ ecorporation of the overseas Hongkong, Macro&Talwan corporations is top to 0.3062,being 1.75 times of that of state-owned enterprises.
(2) This paper has studied the main influences of different technological and equipment level,capital-labor density,ownership,enterprise scale,geographical locations, managerial and timing on the technological efficiency of Chinese fertilizer manufacturing industry.On the basis of theory analysis,experiment inspects the influential directions and depth on technological efficiency.Capital-labor density,enterprises scale,gathering level have taken a remarkable adverse effect on Chinese fertilizer manufacturing industry technological efficiency,while time,enterprise sale cost and geographical position have taken positive roles.Other factors don't have remarkable influences in statistics.
(3) On the basis of convergence,this paper demonstrates the situations of internal technological efficiency within the state and in the three regions inspected with standard deviation,coefficient of variation,and Barro regression equation.From the year of 1998 to 2002,the disparity of technological efficiency levels between the east,west and nation has revealed an obvious convergence phenomenon as time went by.From 2002 to 2005,only disparity of technological efficiency level in west parts are not obvious and emerged convergence phenomenon.Emission trends can be found in the technological efficiency level in the east,middle and the whole country.During the whole research period,namely from 1998-2005,generally,no matter in the east,middle,west or the whole country,the gaps of their technological efficient level between east,west,middle,or the whole country reflect convergence trend in degrees.
(4) Exploring Chinese fertilizer industry productivity fluctuation stems from the general conditions of this industry.Researches reveal Chinese fertilizer industries' total factors productivity ascend range from 1998 to 2005,except a period from 1998-1999.Total factors productivity fluctuations happened in the east are as same as it happened in other parts of china.The middle parts of china secure growth,while in the year of 2000 and 2001, total factor production level decreases a bit.The west regions rise up in general apart from 1998 to 1999 and 2002 to 2003.Accompanied by the improvement of annual growth of technological efficiency and technological progresses,and mainly contributed to the obvious promotion of technological efficiency,total factor productivity obtains increases.
(5) Fertilizer manufacturing industry productivity fluctuations in different regions reveal that during the period from 1998 to 2005,the fluctuating of total factor productivity in east is as similar as it happened in the whole country.Except from 2000 to 2001,total factor productivity level decrease,while in the rest years it ascended.In the west,only during two periods from 1998 to 1999,and from 2002 to 2003,total factor productivity went down the hill.The average growth of fertilizer manufacturing industry in the middle and west are 0.6%,0.33%and 0.89%respectively,which are mainly contributed to technological efficiency improvement and technological level advancement.Specifically, other provinces' total factor productivity index are bigger than 1,only Beijing and Jilin differs from it,0.9872 and 0.9772 respectively.Technological efficiency index are below 1 in Beijing,Guangdong,Shanxi,Jilin and Gansu provinces,other provinces with index below 1;technological advances index in shanghai and Qinghai are smaller than 1,other provinces are bigger than 1.
(6) This paper has examined capital-labor intensive density,fertilizer price index,raw materials,fuels,powerful prices,ownership structure changes,corporate scale,enterprise sale and managerial cost and market occupation rate,of which have imposed influences on Chinese fertilizer productivity growth and composition.Enterprise scales have remarkable influences on the growth of productivity and composition.Capital-labor density and market occupation have taken remarkable negative effects on total factor productivity growth and technological efficiency changes,and positive functions over technological efficiency improvement but not obvious.Having no obvious functions on promote all factor productivity,fertilizer retail price and managerial expense.have obvious improvement to technological advances,and remarkable negative effects on technological efficiency improvement.Enterprises sale costs have bring about great positive and negative influences on technological advances and technological efficiency improvement,and play insignificant role in all factor productivity growth.Raw materials,fuels,power prices have taken a negligible role in productivity improvement and composition.
(7) This paper analysis the factors of fertilizer supply.The result reveals that raw materials & fuels power prices,national revenue policies and import & export of fetilizer have brought great adverse effects.Change of technological efficiency,the planting areas of crops and policies of favour agriculture,favour country and favour farmer have take remarkable positive influences.Agricultural plant structure has positive effect on fertilize suplly,which is not conspicuous in statistics.Especially,change of technological efficiency is the most important element of which take effect on fertilizer supply.
引文
[1]安福,刘欢.加入WTO对我国化肥行业的对策措施[J].当代石油石化,2002,10(6):17-21.
[2]陈宽,谢千里,罗斯基等.中国国营工业固定资产的评估[J].中国社会科学,1987,(6):67-74.
[3]冯元琦.化肥的布局品种和节能-为“十一五”建言献策[J].中国农资,2006,(1).
[4]高铁生,郭东乐..中国化肥市场改革与发展报告[M].中国市场出版社,2006.
[5]高伟,何枫.我国家电行业上市公司技术效率分析—基于随机前沿技术的实证研究[J].数量经济及技术经济研究,2005(3):48-53.
[6]顾乃华,李江帆.中国服务业技术效率区域差异的实证分析[J].经济研究,2006,(1):46-56.
[7]桂熙娟.化肥流通历程:在计划与市场之间[J].中国农资,2006,64-65.
[8]扈映、侯建军.我国化肥行业限价管理政策的经济学分析[J].价格理论与实践,2004,28-29.
[9]华中生,梁梁.《应用DEA方法对合肥地区工业行业效率的评价》[J].《系统工程与电子技术》1994,11.
[10]黄照明.入世后我国化肥行业受到的影响及对策[J].华东经济管理,2002,16(1):74-75.
[11]金继运,李家康,李书田.化肥与粮食安全[J].植物营养与肥料学报,2006,12(5):601-609.
[12]金相郁.区域经济增长收敛的分析方法[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2006,(3):102-110.
[13]孔翔,Robert Marks,万广华.国有企业全要素生产率变化及其决定因素:1991-1994.[J]经济研究,1999,(7):40-48.
[14]李静.中国省区经济增长进程中的生产率角色研究[D].南京农业大学,2006.
[15]李京文,D.乔根森,黑田昌裕.生产率与中美日经济增长研究[M].中国社会科学出版社.1993.4.1-50.
[16]李京文,钟学义.中国生产率分析前沿[M].社会科学文献出版社,1998.
[17]李林茂.化肥问题的根本出路在于市场化[J].价格月刊,2005,(6):3-5.
[18]李双杰,颜伦琴.中国电子行业上市公司效率的数据包络分析.[J].数量经济技术经济研究.2003.3.131-136.
[19]李宪宾.入世后化肥经营的形势与对策.农资科技[J].2001,(5):7-11.
[20]李小平,朱钟棣.中国工业行业的全要素生产率测算[J].管理世界,2005,(4).
[21]李志坚.加入WTO对中国化肥行业的影响[J].化肥工业.2000,28(1):3-7.
[22]梁琦.产业集聚论[M].商务印书馆.2004:284.
[23]林毅夫,刘明兴.中国的经济增长收敛与收入分配[J].世界经济,2003,(8):3-14.
[24]刘伟,李绍荣.所有制变化与经济增长和要素效率提升[J].经济研究.2001,(1):3-9.
[25]刘小玄,郑京海.国有企业效率的决定因素:1985.1994[J].经济研究,1998,(1):37-46.
[26]马常宝.我国化肥需求趋势分析[J].化肥工业,2004,31(2):3-8。
[27]孟令杰.中国农业产出技术效率动态研究[J].农业技术经济,2000,(5):1-4.
[28]孟淑娟,李蔚.入世对化肥公元的影响及对策[J].化工质量,2005,(5):22-25.
[29]彭国华.中国地区收入差距、全要素生产率及其收敛分析[J].经济研究,2005,(9):19-29.
[30]祁玉军.加入WTO对我国化肥价格的影响[J].中国物价,2002,9:18-20.
[31]祁玉军.加入WTO与我国化肥工业的应对之策[J].中国物价,2000,28-29.
[32]祁玉军.近年来我国化肥价格持续下降的原因分析及对策建议[J].中国物价,2000,(5):30-32.
[33]沈能.中国制造业全要素生产率地区空间差异的实证研究[J].中国软科学,2006,(6):101-110.
[34]孙琳琳,任若恩.中国资本投入和全要素生产率的估算[J].世界经济,2005,(12):3-13.
[35]孙巍,叶正波.转轨时期中国工业的效率与生产率[J].中国管理科学,2002,(4):1.
[36]谭仲池.健全农业生产资料价格调控体系的对策研究[J].中国物价,2006,(5):12-15.
[37]涂俊,吴贵生.基于DEA-Tobit两步法的区域农业创新系统评价及分析[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2006,(4):136-145.
[38]涂正革,肖耿.中国工业生产力革命[J].经济研究,2005.(3).
[39]王艾敏.中国饲料加工业地区集中度与绩效的实证研究[D].南京农业大学,2007.
[40]王光龙,谷守玉,许秀成.我国化肥肥料市场的发展趋势[J].化工技术经济,2003,21(10):19-22.
[41]王光龙,谷守玉,许秀成.我国化学肥料市场的研究[J].化肥工业,2003,30(6):3-8.
[42]王志刚,龚六堂,陈玉宇.地区间生产效率与全要素生产率增长分解(1978-2003)[J].中国社会科学,2006,(2):55-66.
[43]王志鹏,李子奈.外资对中国工业企业生产效率的影响研究[J].管理世界,2003,(4):17-25.
[44]吴方卫,孟令杰等.中国农业的增长与效率[M].上海财经大学出版社.2000.4.
[45]伍宏业.当前化肥工业宏观调控的几个主要问题[J].磷肥与复肥.1996(5):1-5.
[46]许秀成.进行市场机会研究有利于我国复肥工业健康发展[J].磷肥与复肥,2003,18(4):8-13.
[47]许秀成.应谨慎预测未来化肥需求量[J].磷肥与复肥,2004,19(2):7-10.
[48]颜鹏飞,王兵.技术效率、技术进步与生产率增长:基于DEA的实证分析[J].经济研究,2004,(12):55-65.
[49]杨帆.中国肥料产业现状与市场需求分析[J].磷肥与复肥,2004,19(2):1-6.
[50]杨根成.化肥市场价格监管的构想[J].价格与市场,2005,(6)
[51]杨向阳.中国服务业的增长与效率研究[D].2007
[52]杨延干.对中国工业全要素生产率测度方法的看法[J].当代财经,1994,(4).
[53]仪斌娟.入世后我国化肥工业的现状和出路[J].大众标准化,2002,(5):42-43.
[54]原鹏飞,何枫.中国制造业生产效率变迁实证研究[J].软科学,2005,19(6):31-33.
[55]岳杰林.加入WTO对化肥市场的影响及对策[J].卢天化科技.2001,(1):74-77.
[56]曾宪坤.我国化肥市场探析[J].磷肥与复肥.1998.(6):1-5.
[57]张国初.前沿生产函数、要素使用效率的全要素生产率[J].数量经济技术经济研究.1996.(9):32-34.
[58]张红宇、金继运.中国肥料产业研究报告[M].中国财政经济出版社,2003.
[59]张军,施少华.中国经济全要素生产率变动:1952-19986[J].世界经济文汇,2003,(2):17-24.
[60]张莉侠.中国乳制品业的效率与绩效[D].南京农业大学,2007.
[61]赵秉强,张福锁等。我国新型肥料发展战略研究[J].植物营养与肥料学报,2002,10(5):536-545.
[62]赵永武.化肥产销形势分析和政策建议[J].磷肥与复肥.1998.(2):1-6.
[63]郑京海,刘小玄,Ame Bigsten.1980-1994期间中国国有企业的效率、技术进步和最佳实践.[J]经济学,2002,1(3):521-539.
[64]郑京海,刘小玄,Ame Bigsten.1980—1994期间中国国有企业的效率、技术进步和最佳实践[J].经济学季刊,第1卷第3期,2002年4月.
[65]郑玉歆,张晓,张思奇.技术效率,技术进步及其对生产率的贡献.沿海工业企业调查的初步分析[J].数量经济技术经济研究.1995.12.20-27.
[66]郑玉歆.《生产率与中国工业经济增长》,载李京文、钟学义主编:《中国生产率分析前沿》,社会科学文献出版社,1998年.
[67]中国农业百科全书.农业化学卷[M].北京:农业出版社,1996:174.
[68]中国市场学会,中国商业联合会课题组.中国化肥市场:改革发展思路与政策支持体系研究[J].经济研究参考,2006,(5).
[69]朱南,卓贤.关于我国国有商业银行效率的实证分析与改革策略[J].管理世界.2004(2):18-26.
[70]A.P.Barnes,Does multi-functionality affect technical efficiency? A non-parametric analysis of the Scottish dairy industry,Journal of Environmental Management Volume 80,Issue 4,September 2006,Pages 287-294.
[71]Antonio Alvarez,Carlos Arias.Technical efficiency and farm size:a conditional analysis.Agricultural Economics 30(2004)241-250.
[72]Bain,Joes,Industrial Organization.New York:Harvard University Press 1959.
[73]Barro,R J.and Xavier Sala-i-Martin.Convergence.Journal of Political Economy.1992,100,223-251.
[74]Basil Manos,Moss.Anjuman Ara Begum,Mohd,Kamruzzaman,Ioanna Nakou,Jason Papathanasiou.Fertilizer price policy,the environment and farmers behavior.Journal of Policy Modeling,2007,29,87-97.
[75]Baumol W.Productivity Growth,Convergence and Welfare:What the Long-Run Data Show. American Economic Review,1986,76(5):1072-1085.
[76]Caves,D.W.,L.R.Christensen,and W.E.Diewert..The Economic Theory of IndexNumbers and the Measurement of Input,Output,and Productivity.Econometrica 50(6),(1982):1393-1414.
[77]Charnes,A.,W.Cooper,and L.M.Seiford..Data envelopment analysis:Theory,methodology,and application.Dordrecht;Boston and London:Kluwer Academic.1994.
[78]Chilingerian.A Multivariate Analysis of Best Practices.European Journal of Operational Research,1995(80):548-574.
[79]Collins,S.M.and Bosworth,B.P."Economic growth in East Asia:accumulation versus assimilation,Washington,DC.1996.
[80]Demsets,H.Industry Structure,Market Rivalry,and Public Policy,Journal of Lawand Economics,16,(1)(1973):1-91.
[81]Donald R.Davis,David E.Weinstein,Market size,Linkages and productivity:a study of Japaneses regions NBER Working Paper 8518,Cambridge,MA 02138 October 2001.
[82]F.J.Arcelus,P.Arozena,Measuring sectoral productivity across time and across countries,European Journal of Operational Research 119(1999):254-266.
[83]Fare,R.,S.Grosskopf,M.Norris et al.Productivity Growth,Technical Progress and Efficiency Changes in Industrialized Countries.American Economic Review,1994,84:66-83.
[84]Farrell,M.J,The measurement of productive efficiency.Journal of the Royal Statistical Society,Series A:General,120(1957),253-281.
[85]Fengxia Dong,The Outlook for Asian Dairy Markets:The Role of Demographics,Income,and Prices,Center for Agricultural and Rural DevelopmentWorking Paper 05-WP 399 June 2005.
[86]Femando Vega-Redondo,Technological change and market structure:An evolutionary approach,International Journal of Industrial Organization 14(1996):203-226.
[87]Frank Fuller,John Beghin,Stephane De Cara,Jacinto Fabiosa,Cheng Fang,and Holger Matthey,China's Accession to the WTO:What Is at Stake for Agricultural Markets? Center for Agricultural and Rural Development Iowa State University,Working Paper 01-WP 276,June 2001.
[88]Frank H.Fuller,Jikun Huang,Hengyun Ma,and Scott Rozelle.The rapid rise of China's dairy sector:Factor behind the growth in demand and supply.CARD Working Paper 05-WP 394,Center for Agricultural and Rural Development,Iowa State University,May.2005.
[89]H.Ade Freeman,Wachira Kaguongo.Fertilizer market liberalization and private retail trade in Kenya.Food Policy,2003,28,505-518.
[90]Harry Bloch,and Sam Hak Kan Tang.Technical change and total factor productivity growth:a study of Singapore's manufacturing industries.Applied economics letters.1999.6.697-701.
[91]J.C.Abbott.Fertilizer marketing componets in rural development projects.Agricultttral Administration,1983,13(3):153-163.
[92]Jiro Nemoto,Mika Goto,Productivity,efficiency,scale economies and technical change:A new decomposition analysis of TFP applied to the Japanese prefectures,Japanese Int.Economies 19(2005) 617-634.
[93]Joe Zhu,Super-efficiency and DEA sensitivity analysis,European Journal of Operational Research 129(2001) 443-455.
[94]Jon A.Chilingerian,Evaluating physician efficiency in hospitals:A multivariate nalysis of best practices.European Journal of Operational Research 80,(1995)548-574.
[95]Khodabakhshi.A super-efficiency model based on improved outputsin data envelopment analysis Applied Mathematics and Computation 184(2007):695-703.
[96]Kirjavainen,T1,&Loikkanen,H1A,Efficiency Differences of Finnish Senior Secondary Schools:An Application of DEA and Tobit Analysis,Economics of Education Review,Vol117,No14(1998):377-3941.
[97]Leigh Drake,Maximilian J.B.Hall,Richard Simper,The impact of maeroeconomie and regulatory factors on bank efficiency:A non-parametric analysis of Hong Kong's banking system Journal of Banking & Finance 30(2006):1443-1466.
[98]Leung.Singapore's manufacturing industries' total factor productivity growth(TFPG).Applied Economics Letters.1999.4.194-199.
[99]M.Renuka,and P.Kalirajan.On measuring total factor productivity growth in Singapore's manufacturing industries.Applied economics letters.1999.6.295-298.
[100]Malmquist S.Index Numbers and Indifference Curres.Trabajos de Estatistica(S0081-4539),1953,4:209-242.
[101]Maria Teresa Balaguer-Coll,Diego Prior,Emili Tortosa-Ausina,On the determinants of local government performance:A two-stage nonparametric approach,European Economic Review,51(2007) 425-451.
[102]Mark Cooper,John Davis.The Irish fertilizer industry.Irish Academic Press,2004,385.
[103]Marshal.A.Principles of Economies[M].Sth edn,London Macmillan,1920:21.
[104]Patrick Kormawa,Augustin Munyemana,Bio Soule.Fertilizer market reforms and factors influencing fertilizer use by small-scale farmers in Benin.Agriculture Ecosystems &Environment,2003,100,129-136.
[105]Peter Bogetoft,Jens Leth Hougaard,Super efficiency evaluations based on potential slack,European Journal of Operational Research 152(2004) 14-21.
[106]Rajiv D.Banker,Hsihui Chang,The super-efficiency procedure for outlier identification,not for ranking efficient units European Journal of Operational Research 175(2006) 1311-1320.
[107]Rawson,2001,Data Envelopment Analysis of Technical Efficiency in the UK Insurance Industry,Nottingham University Thesis Series.
[108]Raymond Z.H.Renfro.Fertilizer price and subsidy policies in Bangladesh.Available online 22March,2002.
[109]Renuka Mahadean.How technically efficient are Singapore's manufacturing industries?Applied economics.2000.32.2007-2014.
[110]Ross Flett,Fiona Alpass,Steve Hurnphries,Claire Massey,Stuart Morriss,Nigel Long,The technology acceptance model and use of technology in New Zealand dairy farming,Agricultural Systems 80(2004) 199-211.
[111]Sara D.Short,Characteristics and Production Costs of U.S.Dairy Operations,Electronic Report from the Economic Research Service,United States Department of Agriculture,Statistical Bulletin Number 974-6,February 2004.
[112]Shanling Li,G.R.Jahanshahloo,M.Khodabakhshi,A super-efficiency model for ranking efficient units in data envelopment analysis,Applied Mathematics and Computation 184(2007)638-648.
[113]Solow R M.A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth.Quarterly Journal of.Economics.1956,70,1(February):65-94.
[114]Suchada Langley,Don Blayney,Jim Stout,Agapi Somwaru,Mary Anne Normile,Jim Miller,Seok Yoon,A note on the market structure and performance in Korean manufacturing industries,Journal of Policy Modeling 26(2004) 733-746.
[115]T.S.Jayne,J.Govereh,M.Wanzala,M.Demeke.Fertilizer market development:a comparative anardysis of Ethoipia,Kenya,and Zambia.Food Policy,2003,28,293-316.
[116]Tingjun Peng and Thomas L.Cox,An Economic Analysis of the Impacts of Trade Liberalization on Asian Dairy Market Agricultural and Applied Economics,Staff Paper NO.490,University of Wisconsin-Madison Department of Agricultural &AppliedEeonomies,August,2005.
[117]Tone,K.A Slacks-Based Measure of Efficiency in Data Envelopment Analysis.European Journal of Operational Research,130(2001).498-509.
[118]Tone,K.A slacks-based measure of super-efficiency in data envelopment analysis.European Journal of Operational Research,143(2002).32-41.
[119]W.W.Cooper,K.Tone,Measures of inefficiency in data envelopment analysis and stochastic. frontier estimation European Journal of Operational Research 99(1997) 72-88.
[120]Yao Chen,A non-radial Malmquist productivity index with an illustrative application to Chinese major industries,Int.J.Production Economics 83(2003) 27-35.
[121]Yao Chen,H.David Sherman.The benefits of non-radial vs.radial super-efficiency DEA:an application to burden-sharing amongst NATO member nations,Socio-Eeonomie Planning Sciences 38(2004) 307-320.
[122]Yao Chen,Measuring super-efficiency in DEA in the presence of infeasibility,European Journal of Operational Research 161(2005) 545-551
[2]陈宽,谢千里,罗斯基等.中国国营工业固定资产的评估[J].中国社会科学,1987,(6):67-74.
[3]冯元琦.化肥的布局品种和节能-为“十一五”建言献策[J].中国农资,2006,(1).
[4]高铁生,郭东乐..中国化肥市场改革与发展报告[M].中国市场出版社,2006.
[5]高伟,何枫.我国家电行业上市公司技术效率分析—基于随机前沿技术的实证研究[J].数量经济及技术经济研究,2005(3):48-53.
[6]顾乃华,李江帆.中国服务业技术效率区域差异的实证分析[J].经济研究,2006,(1):46-56.
[7]桂熙娟.化肥流通历程:在计划与市场之间[J].中国农资,2006,64-65.
[8]扈映、侯建军.我国化肥行业限价管理政策的经济学分析[J].价格理论与实践,2004,28-29.
[9]华中生,梁梁.《应用DEA方法对合肥地区工业行业效率的评价》[J].《系统工程与电子技术》1994,11.
[10]黄照明.入世后我国化肥行业受到的影响及对策[J].华东经济管理,2002,16(1):74-75.
[11]金继运,李家康,李书田.化肥与粮食安全[J].植物营养与肥料学报,2006,12(5):601-609.
[12]金相郁.区域经济增长收敛的分析方法[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2006,(3):102-110.
[13]孔翔,Robert Marks,万广华.国有企业全要素生产率变化及其决定因素:1991-1994.[J]经济研究,1999,(7):40-48.
[14]李静.中国省区经济增长进程中的生产率角色研究[D].南京农业大学,2006.
[15]李京文,D.乔根森,黑田昌裕.生产率与中美日经济增长研究[M].中国社会科学出版社.1993.4.1-50.
[16]李京文,钟学义.中国生产率分析前沿[M].社会科学文献出版社,1998.
[17]李林茂.化肥问题的根本出路在于市场化[J].价格月刊,2005,(6):3-5.
[18]李双杰,颜伦琴.中国电子行业上市公司效率的数据包络分析.[J].数量经济技术经济研究.2003.3.131-136.
[19]李宪宾.入世后化肥经营的形势与对策.农资科技[J].2001,(5):7-11.
[20]李小平,朱钟棣.中国工业行业的全要素生产率测算[J].管理世界,2005,(4).
[21]李志坚.加入WTO对中国化肥行业的影响[J].化肥工业.2000,28(1):3-7.
[22]梁琦.产业集聚论[M].商务印书馆.2004:284.
[23]林毅夫,刘明兴.中国的经济增长收敛与收入分配[J].世界经济,2003,(8):3-14.
[24]刘伟,李绍荣.所有制变化与经济增长和要素效率提升[J].经济研究.2001,(1):3-9.
[25]刘小玄,郑京海.国有企业效率的决定因素:1985.1994[J].经济研究,1998,(1):37-46.
[26]马常宝.我国化肥需求趋势分析[J].化肥工业,2004,31(2):3-8。
[27]孟令杰.中国农业产出技术效率动态研究[J].农业技术经济,2000,(5):1-4.
[28]孟淑娟,李蔚.入世对化肥公元的影响及对策[J].化工质量,2005,(5):22-25.
[29]彭国华.中国地区收入差距、全要素生产率及其收敛分析[J].经济研究,2005,(9):19-29.
[30]祁玉军.加入WTO对我国化肥价格的影响[J].中国物价,2002,9:18-20.
[31]祁玉军.加入WTO与我国化肥工业的应对之策[J].中国物价,2000,28-29.
[32]祁玉军.近年来我国化肥价格持续下降的原因分析及对策建议[J].中国物价,2000,(5):30-32.
[33]沈能.中国制造业全要素生产率地区空间差异的实证研究[J].中国软科学,2006,(6):101-110.
[34]孙琳琳,任若恩.中国资本投入和全要素生产率的估算[J].世界经济,2005,(12):3-13.
[35]孙巍,叶正波.转轨时期中国工业的效率与生产率[J].中国管理科学,2002,(4):1.
[36]谭仲池.健全农业生产资料价格调控体系的对策研究[J].中国物价,2006,(5):12-15.
[37]涂俊,吴贵生.基于DEA-Tobit两步法的区域农业创新系统评价及分析[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2006,(4):136-145.
[38]涂正革,肖耿.中国工业生产力革命[J].经济研究,2005.(3).
[39]王艾敏.中国饲料加工业地区集中度与绩效的实证研究[D].南京农业大学,2007.
[40]王光龙,谷守玉,许秀成.我国化肥肥料市场的发展趋势[J].化工技术经济,2003,21(10):19-22.
[41]王光龙,谷守玉,许秀成.我国化学肥料市场的研究[J].化肥工业,2003,30(6):3-8.
[42]王志刚,龚六堂,陈玉宇.地区间生产效率与全要素生产率增长分解(1978-2003)[J].中国社会科学,2006,(2):55-66.
[43]王志鹏,李子奈.外资对中国工业企业生产效率的影响研究[J].管理世界,2003,(4):17-25.
[44]吴方卫,孟令杰等.中国农业的增长与效率[M].上海财经大学出版社.2000.4.
[45]伍宏业.当前化肥工业宏观调控的几个主要问题[J].磷肥与复肥.1996(5):1-5.
[46]许秀成.进行市场机会研究有利于我国复肥工业健康发展[J].磷肥与复肥,2003,18(4):8-13.
[47]许秀成.应谨慎预测未来化肥需求量[J].磷肥与复肥,2004,19(2):7-10.
[48]颜鹏飞,王兵.技术效率、技术进步与生产率增长:基于DEA的实证分析[J].经济研究,2004,(12):55-65.
[49]杨帆.中国肥料产业现状与市场需求分析[J].磷肥与复肥,2004,19(2):1-6.
[50]杨根成.化肥市场价格监管的构想[J].价格与市场,2005,(6)
[51]杨向阳.中国服务业的增长与效率研究[D].2007
[52]杨延干.对中国工业全要素生产率测度方法的看法[J].当代财经,1994,(4).
[53]仪斌娟.入世后我国化肥工业的现状和出路[J].大众标准化,2002,(5):42-43.
[54]原鹏飞,何枫.中国制造业生产效率变迁实证研究[J].软科学,2005,19(6):31-33.
[55]岳杰林.加入WTO对化肥市场的影响及对策[J].卢天化科技.2001,(1):74-77.
[56]曾宪坤.我国化肥市场探析[J].磷肥与复肥.1998.(6):1-5.
[57]张国初.前沿生产函数、要素使用效率的全要素生产率[J].数量经济技术经济研究.1996.(9):32-34.
[58]张红宇、金继运.中国肥料产业研究报告[M].中国财政经济出版社,2003.
[59]张军,施少华.中国经济全要素生产率变动:1952-19986[J].世界经济文汇,2003,(2):17-24.
[60]张莉侠.中国乳制品业的效率与绩效[D].南京农业大学,2007.
[61]赵秉强,张福锁等。我国新型肥料发展战略研究[J].植物营养与肥料学报,2002,10(5):536-545.
[62]赵永武.化肥产销形势分析和政策建议[J].磷肥与复肥.1998.(2):1-6.
[63]郑京海,刘小玄,Ame Bigsten.1980-1994期间中国国有企业的效率、技术进步和最佳实践.[J]经济学,2002,1(3):521-539.
[64]郑京海,刘小玄,Ame Bigsten.1980—1994期间中国国有企业的效率、技术进步和最佳实践[J].经济学季刊,第1卷第3期,2002年4月.
[65]郑玉歆,张晓,张思奇.技术效率,技术进步及其对生产率的贡献.沿海工业企业调查的初步分析[J].数量经济技术经济研究.1995.12.20-27.
[66]郑玉歆.《生产率与中国工业经济增长》,载李京文、钟学义主编:《中国生产率分析前沿》,社会科学文献出版社,1998年.
[67]中国农业百科全书.农业化学卷[M].北京:农业出版社,1996:174.
[68]中国市场学会,中国商业联合会课题组.中国化肥市场:改革发展思路与政策支持体系研究[J].经济研究参考,2006,(5).
[69]朱南,卓贤.关于我国国有商业银行效率的实证分析与改革策略[J].管理世界.2004(2):18-26.
[70]A.P.Barnes,Does multi-functionality affect technical efficiency? A non-parametric analysis of the Scottish dairy industry,Journal of Environmental Management Volume 80,Issue 4,September 2006,Pages 287-294.
[71]Antonio Alvarez,Carlos Arias.Technical efficiency and farm size:a conditional analysis.Agricultural Economics 30(2004)241-250.
[72]Bain,Joes,Industrial Organization.New York:Harvard University Press 1959.
[73]Barro,R J.and Xavier Sala-i-Martin.Convergence.Journal of Political Economy.1992,100,223-251.
[74]Basil Manos,Moss.Anjuman Ara Begum,Mohd,Kamruzzaman,Ioanna Nakou,Jason Papathanasiou.Fertilizer price policy,the environment and farmers behavior.Journal of Policy Modeling,2007,29,87-97.
[75]Baumol W.Productivity Growth,Convergence and Welfare:What the Long-Run Data Show. American Economic Review,1986,76(5):1072-1085.
[76]Caves,D.W.,L.R.Christensen,and W.E.Diewert..The Economic Theory of IndexNumbers and the Measurement of Input,Output,and Productivity.Econometrica 50(6),(1982):1393-1414.
[77]Charnes,A.,W.Cooper,and L.M.Seiford..Data envelopment analysis:Theory,methodology,and application.Dordrecht;Boston and London:Kluwer Academic.1994.
[78]Chilingerian.A Multivariate Analysis of Best Practices.European Journal of Operational Research,1995(80):548-574.
[79]Collins,S.M.and Bosworth,B.P."Economic growth in East Asia:accumulation versus assimilation,Washington,DC.1996.
[80]Demsets,H.Industry Structure,Market Rivalry,and Public Policy,Journal of Lawand Economics,16,(1)(1973):1-91.
[81]Donald R.Davis,David E.Weinstein,Market size,Linkages and productivity:a study of Japaneses regions NBER Working Paper 8518,Cambridge,MA 02138 October 2001.
[82]F.J.Arcelus,P.Arozena,Measuring sectoral productivity across time and across countries,European Journal of Operational Research 119(1999):254-266.
[83]Fare,R.,S.Grosskopf,M.Norris et al.Productivity Growth,Technical Progress and Efficiency Changes in Industrialized Countries.American Economic Review,1994,84:66-83.
[84]Farrell,M.J,The measurement of productive efficiency.Journal of the Royal Statistical Society,Series A:General,120(1957),253-281.
[85]Fengxia Dong,The Outlook for Asian Dairy Markets:The Role of Demographics,Income,and Prices,Center for Agricultural and Rural DevelopmentWorking Paper 05-WP 399 June 2005.
[86]Femando Vega-Redondo,Technological change and market structure:An evolutionary approach,International Journal of Industrial Organization 14(1996):203-226.
[87]Frank Fuller,John Beghin,Stephane De Cara,Jacinto Fabiosa,Cheng Fang,and Holger Matthey,China's Accession to the WTO:What Is at Stake for Agricultural Markets? Center for Agricultural and Rural Development Iowa State University,Working Paper 01-WP 276,June 2001.
[88]Frank H.Fuller,Jikun Huang,Hengyun Ma,and Scott Rozelle.The rapid rise of China's dairy sector:Factor behind the growth in demand and supply.CARD Working Paper 05-WP 394,Center for Agricultural and Rural Development,Iowa State University,May.2005.
[89]H.Ade Freeman,Wachira Kaguongo.Fertilizer market liberalization and private retail trade in Kenya.Food Policy,2003,28,505-518.
[90]Harry Bloch,and Sam Hak Kan Tang.Technical change and total factor productivity growth:a study of Singapore's manufacturing industries.Applied economics letters.1999.6.697-701.
[91]J.C.Abbott.Fertilizer marketing componets in rural development projects.Agricultttral Administration,1983,13(3):153-163.
[92]Jiro Nemoto,Mika Goto,Productivity,efficiency,scale economies and technical change:A new decomposition analysis of TFP applied to the Japanese prefectures,Japanese Int.Economies 19(2005) 617-634.
[93]Joe Zhu,Super-efficiency and DEA sensitivity analysis,European Journal of Operational Research 129(2001) 443-455.
[94]Jon A.Chilingerian,Evaluating physician efficiency in hospitals:A multivariate nalysis of best practices.European Journal of Operational Research 80,(1995)548-574.
[95]Khodabakhshi.A super-efficiency model based on improved outputsin data envelopment analysis Applied Mathematics and Computation 184(2007):695-703.
[96]Kirjavainen,T1,&Loikkanen,H1A,Efficiency Differences of Finnish Senior Secondary Schools:An Application of DEA and Tobit Analysis,Economics of Education Review,Vol117,No14(1998):377-3941.
[97]Leigh Drake,Maximilian J.B.Hall,Richard Simper,The impact of maeroeconomie and regulatory factors on bank efficiency:A non-parametric analysis of Hong Kong's banking system Journal of Banking & Finance 30(2006):1443-1466.
[98]Leung.Singapore's manufacturing industries' total factor productivity growth(TFPG).Applied Economics Letters.1999.4.194-199.
[99]M.Renuka,and P.Kalirajan.On measuring total factor productivity growth in Singapore's manufacturing industries.Applied economics letters.1999.6.295-298.
[100]Malmquist S.Index Numbers and Indifference Curres.Trabajos de Estatistica(S0081-4539),1953,4:209-242.
[101]Maria Teresa Balaguer-Coll,Diego Prior,Emili Tortosa-Ausina,On the determinants of local government performance:A two-stage nonparametric approach,European Economic Review,51(2007) 425-451.
[102]Mark Cooper,John Davis.The Irish fertilizer industry.Irish Academic Press,2004,385.
[103]Marshal.A.Principles of Economies[M].Sth edn,London Macmillan,1920:21.
[104]Patrick Kormawa,Augustin Munyemana,Bio Soule.Fertilizer market reforms and factors influencing fertilizer use by small-scale farmers in Benin.Agriculture Ecosystems &Environment,2003,100,129-136.
[105]Peter Bogetoft,Jens Leth Hougaard,Super efficiency evaluations based on potential slack,European Journal of Operational Research 152(2004) 14-21.
[106]Rajiv D.Banker,Hsihui Chang,The super-efficiency procedure for outlier identification,not for ranking efficient units European Journal of Operational Research 175(2006) 1311-1320.
[107]Rawson,2001,Data Envelopment Analysis of Technical Efficiency in the UK Insurance Industry,Nottingham University Thesis Series.
[108]Raymond Z.H.Renfro.Fertilizer price and subsidy policies in Bangladesh.Available online 22March,2002.
[109]Renuka Mahadean.How technically efficient are Singapore's manufacturing industries?Applied economics.2000.32.2007-2014.
[110]Ross Flett,Fiona Alpass,Steve Hurnphries,Claire Massey,Stuart Morriss,Nigel Long,The technology acceptance model and use of technology in New Zealand dairy farming,Agricultural Systems 80(2004) 199-211.
[111]Sara D.Short,Characteristics and Production Costs of U.S.Dairy Operations,Electronic Report from the Economic Research Service,United States Department of Agriculture,Statistical Bulletin Number 974-6,February 2004.
[112]Shanling Li,G.R.Jahanshahloo,M.Khodabakhshi,A super-efficiency model for ranking efficient units in data envelopment analysis,Applied Mathematics and Computation 184(2007)638-648.
[113]Solow R M.A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth.Quarterly Journal of.Economics.1956,70,1(February):65-94.
[114]Suchada Langley,Don Blayney,Jim Stout,Agapi Somwaru,Mary Anne Normile,Jim Miller,Seok Yoon,A note on the market structure and performance in Korean manufacturing industries,Journal of Policy Modeling 26(2004) 733-746.
[115]T.S.Jayne,J.Govereh,M.Wanzala,M.Demeke.Fertilizer market development:a comparative anardysis of Ethoipia,Kenya,and Zambia.Food Policy,2003,28,293-316.
[116]Tingjun Peng and Thomas L.Cox,An Economic Analysis of the Impacts of Trade Liberalization on Asian Dairy Market Agricultural and Applied Economics,Staff Paper NO.490,University of Wisconsin-Madison Department of Agricultural &AppliedEeonomies,August,2005.
[117]Tone,K.A Slacks-Based Measure of Efficiency in Data Envelopment Analysis.European Journal of Operational Research,130(2001).498-509.
[118]Tone,K.A slacks-based measure of super-efficiency in data envelopment analysis.European Journal of Operational Research,143(2002).32-41.
[119]W.W.Cooper,K.Tone,Measures of inefficiency in data envelopment analysis and stochastic. frontier estimation European Journal of Operational Research 99(1997) 72-88.
[120]Yao Chen,A non-radial Malmquist productivity index with an illustrative application to Chinese major industries,Int.J.Production Economics 83(2003) 27-35.
[121]Yao Chen,H.David Sherman.The benefits of non-radial vs.radial super-efficiency DEA:an application to burden-sharing amongst NATO member nations,Socio-Eeonomie Planning Sciences 38(2004) 307-320.
[122]Yao Chen,Measuring super-efficiency in DEA in the presence of infeasibility,European Journal of Operational Research 161(2005) 545-551