我国二氧化碳减排问题的政策建模与实证研究
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摘要
全球气候变化是人类迄今面临的最重大环境问题，也是21世纪人类面临的最复杂挑战之一，围绕减缓气候变暖的国际谈判不仅关系到人类的生存环境，而且直接影响发展中国家的现代化与可持续发展进程。目前国际科学界认为，气候变化至少部分是由人类活动引起的，解决气候变化问题的根本措施之一是减少温室气体的人为排放。中国是世界上最大的发展中国家，同时也是仅次于美国的第二大二氧化碳排放国家，中国的二氧化碳减排已经成为国内外学术界、环境界和各国政府共同关注的热点问题。研究中国二氧化碳排放问题具有十分重要的意义，不仅有利于中国的可持续发展，而且对缓和全球气候变暖有突出贡献。
因此，本论文利用一些模型和方法定量地研究了中国减缓二氧化碳排放增长速度的潜力何在，以及未来可能的不同的减排政策对中国经济-社会的影响。主要取得了以下创新：
(1)二氧化碳排放主要受哪些因素的影响，哪些因素对二氧化碳排放起着决定性的作用，收入水平对此是否有影响?分析研究上述问题是开展二氧化碳减排行动以及政府部门制定减排战略和政策的基础。因此，国际上针对二氧化碳排放的主要因素建立一系列的模型，但是都是针对多个国家的，没有单独针对中国的研究。本文利用STIRPAT模型，定量地分析了世界、中国、高收入水平国家、较高的中等收入水平国家、较低的中等收入水平国家和低收入水平国家的人口、经济、技术因素对二氧化碳排放的影响。通过研究我们发现：人口对二氧化碳排放量的影响很大，尤其是15-64岁人口所占比例，对高收入国家是负向影响；对其他类别的国家，是正向影响；人均实际GDP的增长对二氧化碳排放量的影响，基本随经济发展水平的提高而呈下降趋势；通过提高能源效率来减少二氧化碳排放量，其效果的好坏受各国经济发展水平和能源消费结构的制约，对高收入国家、低收入国家和较高的中等收入国家，能源强度对于二氧化碳排放量的影响小，对较低的中等收入国家，对二氧化碳排放量的影响相对较大。因此，决策者在制定二氧化碳减排的长期战略中应结合实际情况充分考虑人口、经济、技术的影响。
(2)结合中国城乡差距较大的二元社会结构特点，本文利用CLA(Consumer Lifestyle Approach)方法分析了中国城镇居民和农村居民生活行为对能源消费及二氧化碳排放的直接影响和间接影响。1999-2002年我国每年全部
Global climate change is hitherto the most serious environmental problem, and is also one of the most complicated challenges in the 21st century. The international negotiations aiming to mitigate global climate warming not only related to the people's surviving, but also influence directly the modernization and sustainable development of developing countries. Now the scientific community has reached a consensus that people's activities should be responsible for the part of global climate warming at least, and international negotiations have been also underway to try to reach a consensus on cutting the CO_2 emissions worldwide in order to solve it at all. As the largest developing country and the second largest CO_2 emissions source next to the US, China's CO_2 emissions reductions have been one of the hottest problems discussed by academe, environmental administers and all governments in the world. It is of great importance to analyze China's CO_2 emissions, which is beneficial to China's sustainable development, but also can contribute to mitigate the global climate warming.
Therefore, this paper quantifies what potential exits in mitigating the growth of China's CO_2 emissions, and what impacts possible different abatement policies will have on economy in the future based on some models and approaches. Our main innovations are as follows:
(1) What factors can have some impacts on the growth of CO_2 emissions? And what factors are definitively driving the growth of CO_2 change? Both questions are necessary base to establish carbon emissions reduction strategies and abatement policies, and even mitigate the growth of CO_2 emissions or cut CO_2 emissions for decision-makers. Based on STIRPAT model, this paper quantifies the impacts of population, affluence and technology on the total CO_2 emissions at the high income level, upper-middle income level, lower-middle income level, low income level, the world and China over the period 1975-2000. Our main results show that the impact of population on CO_2 emissions is great, especially the proportion of the population between ages 15 and 64. It has a negative impact on the total CO_2 emissions of countries at the high income level, but the impact is positive at other income levels.
因此，本论文利用一些模型和方法定量地研究了中国减缓二氧化碳排放增长速度的潜力何在，以及未来可能的不同的减排政策对中国经济-社会的影响。主要取得了以下创新：
(1)二氧化碳排放主要受哪些因素的影响，哪些因素对二氧化碳排放起着决定性的作用，收入水平对此是否有影响?分析研究上述问题是开展二氧化碳减排行动以及政府部门制定减排战略和政策的基础。因此，国际上针对二氧化碳排放的主要因素建立一系列的模型，但是都是针对多个国家的，没有单独针对中国的研究。本文利用STIRPAT模型，定量地分析了世界、中国、高收入水平国家、较高的中等收入水平国家、较低的中等收入水平国家和低收入水平国家的人口、经济、技术因素对二氧化碳排放的影响。通过研究我们发现：人口对二氧化碳排放量的影响很大，尤其是15-64岁人口所占比例，对高收入国家是负向影响；对其他类别的国家，是正向影响；人均实际GDP的增长对二氧化碳排放量的影响，基本随经济发展水平的提高而呈下降趋势；通过提高能源效率来减少二氧化碳排放量，其效果的好坏受各国经济发展水平和能源消费结构的制约，对高收入国家、低收入国家和较高的中等收入国家，能源强度对于二氧化碳排放量的影响小，对较低的中等收入国家，对二氧化碳排放量的影响相对较大。因此，决策者在制定二氧化碳减排的长期战略中应结合实际情况充分考虑人口、经济、技术的影响。
(2)结合中国城乡差距较大的二元社会结构特点，本文利用CLA(Consumer Lifestyle Approach)方法分析了中国城镇居民和农村居民生活行为对能源消费及二氧化碳排放的直接影响和间接影响。1999-2002年我国每年全部
Global climate change is hitherto the most serious environmental problem, and is also one of the most complicated challenges in the 21st century. The international negotiations aiming to mitigate global climate warming not only related to the people's surviving, but also influence directly the modernization and sustainable development of developing countries. Now the scientific community has reached a consensus that people's activities should be responsible for the part of global climate warming at least, and international negotiations have been also underway to try to reach a consensus on cutting the CO_2 emissions worldwide in order to solve it at all. As the largest developing country and the second largest CO_2 emissions source next to the US, China's CO_2 emissions reductions have been one of the hottest problems discussed by academe, environmental administers and all governments in the world. It is of great importance to analyze China's CO_2 emissions, which is beneficial to China's sustainable development, but also can contribute to mitigate the global climate warming.
Therefore, this paper quantifies what potential exits in mitigating the growth of China's CO_2 emissions, and what impacts possible different abatement policies will have on economy in the future based on some models and approaches. Our main innovations are as follows:
(1) What factors can have some impacts on the growth of CO_2 emissions? And what factors are definitively driving the growth of CO_2 change? Both questions are necessary base to establish carbon emissions reduction strategies and abatement policies, and even mitigate the growth of CO_2 emissions or cut CO_2 emissions for decision-makers. Based on STIRPAT model, this paper quantifies the impacts of population, affluence and technology on the total CO_2 emissions at the high income level, upper-middle income level, lower-middle income level, low income level, the world and China over the period 1975-2000. Our main results show that the impact of population on CO_2 emissions is great, especially the proportion of the population between ages 15 and 64. It has a negative impact on the total CO_2 emissions of countries at the high income level, but the impact is positive at other income levels.
引文
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