能源技术变迁的复杂性研究
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摘要
技术系统是一个开放的系统，是一个包含物理元素、社会元素和信息元素的相互关联的网络。作为不断发展变化的复杂社会经济系统的一个子系统，技术系统与其他子系统之间有着千丝万缕的、非线性的相互作用，使得技术变迁具有动态性、系统性和不确定性等特征。
本文针对技术变迁过程呈现出的动态性、系统性和不确定性，以实证研究与规范研究相结合，采用定性与定量分析方法，对能源技术系统变迁的动态性、系统性和不确定性进行了研究和分析。并基于定量研究的结果，对能源技术政策的制定，提出了若干政策建议。主要开展了以下创新性的工作：
(1) 能源技术变迁的演化特征研究
以演化经济学的视角，着重研究了能源技术变迁的演化特征，企业创新和使用技术的能力与激励，技术系统和社会系统的动态行为，以及公共政策在形成新的技术轨迹中的作用。以技术范式等理论分析框架为基础，分别从宏观层次和中观层次，研究了能源技术经济范式的变迁，和能源产业技术变迁的演化特征。提出了能源技术经济范式的三阶段划分，揭示了技术系统和社会系统在不同能源技术经济范式下的动态行为，以及市场环境、社会制度、技术竞争和政策环境等对能源技术变迁的复杂影响与作用。
(2) 能源技术变迁的动态性分析
技术变迁的动态性是指技术总在不断的发展和进步，同时，其发展和进步的过程受到各种因素的影响，总是处在不断的改变，并适应其所依赖的环境的。借鉴蛛网模型，我们研究了世界能源技术研发投入的动态特征，和响应石油危机冲击的模式；利用熵统计方法，研究了世界能源技术研发投入在技术组合和国家分布上的变化特征。研究发现，世界能源研发投入的技术维度熵从20世纪80年代的1.2左右提高到2000年后的1.65，反映了技术多样化的动态趋势；而国家维度熵值则从20世纪80年代中期的1.8下降到2000年后的1.1左右，反映了能源技术研发投入集中于少数国家的趋势；而在各国家则呈现出倾向于自身优先技术领域的动态发展趋势。通过对世界能源技术研发投入变化的实证分
Technology system is an open system, a complex network that containing physical elements, social elements and information elements. As a sub-system of the socio-economic complex system, technology system has various non-linear interactions with other sub-systems, thus dynamic, systemic and uncertain features emerge in the process of technological change.
This dissertation, combining empirical analysis and norm research, applying qutitative analysis methods, emphasizes on the dynamic, systemic and uncertain features of energy technological change, based on which energy technology policy implications are drawn. Contributions of this dissertation are as follows:
(1) Evolution character of energy technological change
From the evolutionary perspective, we focus on the evolutionary character of energy technological change, the capabilities and incentives of firms to produce and use new technologies, the dynamic behavior of technological and social systems and the role of public policy in shaping new technological paths. Based on the theoretical framework of technological paradigm, we identify the transitions of energy techno-economic paradigms on the macro level, and investigate the evolution character of technological change in energy sectors, which reveals the dynamic behavior of technological and social systems under different paradigms, and the complex impacts of market environment, institution, technology competition and government regulation on energy technological change.
(2) Dynamic feature of energy technological change
Dynamic means technology is always developing, and during the process the direction and pace of technological change is influenced by many factors around. Technology has to adapt to the environment it rests. Borrowing the concept of cobweb model, we investigate the dynamics of world energy R&D expenditures and the reaction patterns of energy R&D investment to oil shocks. Furthermore, the entropy statistics is applied to analyze the dynamic features of portfolio in
本文针对技术变迁过程呈现出的动态性、系统性和不确定性，以实证研究与规范研究相结合，采用定性与定量分析方法，对能源技术系统变迁的动态性、系统性和不确定性进行了研究和分析。并基于定量研究的结果，对能源技术政策的制定，提出了若干政策建议。主要开展了以下创新性的工作：
(1) 能源技术变迁的演化特征研究
以演化经济学的视角，着重研究了能源技术变迁的演化特征，企业创新和使用技术的能力与激励，技术系统和社会系统的动态行为，以及公共政策在形成新的技术轨迹中的作用。以技术范式等理论分析框架为基础，分别从宏观层次和中观层次，研究了能源技术经济范式的变迁，和能源产业技术变迁的演化特征。提出了能源技术经济范式的三阶段划分，揭示了技术系统和社会系统在不同能源技术经济范式下的动态行为，以及市场环境、社会制度、技术竞争和政策环境等对能源技术变迁的复杂影响与作用。
(2) 能源技术变迁的动态性分析
技术变迁的动态性是指技术总在不断的发展和进步，同时，其发展和进步的过程受到各种因素的影响，总是处在不断的改变，并适应其所依赖的环境的。借鉴蛛网模型，我们研究了世界能源技术研发投入的动态特征，和响应石油危机冲击的模式；利用熵统计方法，研究了世界能源技术研发投入在技术组合和国家分布上的变化特征。研究发现，世界能源研发投入的技术维度熵从20世纪80年代的1.2左右提高到2000年后的1.65，反映了技术多样化的动态趋势；而国家维度熵值则从20世纪80年代中期的1.8下降到2000年后的1.1左右，反映了能源技术研发投入集中于少数国家的趋势；而在各国家则呈现出倾向于自身优先技术领域的动态发展趋势。通过对世界能源技术研发投入变化的实证分
Technology system is an open system, a complex network that containing physical elements, social elements and information elements. As a sub-system of the socio-economic complex system, technology system has various non-linear interactions with other sub-systems, thus dynamic, systemic and uncertain features emerge in the process of technological change.
This dissertation, combining empirical analysis and norm research, applying qutitative analysis methods, emphasizes on the dynamic, systemic and uncertain features of energy technological change, based on which energy technology policy implications are drawn. Contributions of this dissertation are as follows:
(1) Evolution character of energy technological change
From the evolutionary perspective, we focus on the evolutionary character of energy technological change, the capabilities and incentives of firms to produce and use new technologies, the dynamic behavior of technological and social systems and the role of public policy in shaping new technological paths. Based on the theoretical framework of technological paradigm, we identify the transitions of energy techno-economic paradigms on the macro level, and investigate the evolution character of technological change in energy sectors, which reveals the dynamic behavior of technological and social systems under different paradigms, and the complex impacts of market environment, institution, technology competition and government regulation on energy technological change.
(2) Dynamic feature of energy technological change
Dynamic means technology is always developing, and during the process the direction and pace of technological change is influenced by many factors around. Technology has to adapt to the environment it rests. Borrowing the concept of cobweb model, we investigate the dynamics of world energy R&D expenditures and the reaction patterns of energy R&D investment to oil shocks. Furthermore, the entropy statistics is applied to analyze the dynamic features of portfolio in
引文
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