中国环境与经济增长的定量分析
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摘要
在人类社会经济发展过程中,资源耗竭和能源短缺日益凸显,环境污染和生态破坏日益严重,我们面临的环境问题从局部扩展为全球,从当代延续到后代,异常的气候变化不断敲响生态环境恶化的警钟。在这一背景下,环境质量与经济增长的关系这一环境的时间配置问题成为可持续发展的中心议题之一,需要从理论和经验两方面分析和验证环境和经济均衡发展的可能性和演变路径,为环境政策的制定和实施提供有益的参考。
本文在宏观经济学的基本框架下,从中国现实的经济、环境状况出发,运用定量分析方法讨论环境恶化与经济增长之间的作用和反馈机制,分析环境质量演化的内在机理。文章首先建立环境和经济增长的理论模型,而后采用中国的数据从全局和区域差异的角度进行实证分析,同时考察环境质量变化的机理,最后讨论经济增长和环境质量(包括污染排放和能源消费)的相互作用机制。
本文的内容和主要研究结论如下：
第一章介绍选题的动机和意义、研究的范畴和内容。第二章是关于环境与经济增长的理论模型和实证文献综述,为本文的研究提供理论基础。
第三章是理论模型构建,以新古典增长模型中的索洛模型为基础,构建了将环境看作一种资本投入的环境索洛模型,使用数理经济学的动态均衡分析方法进行研究。分析的结果表明,在一定条件下,环境质量和经济发展的均衡增长路径是可实现的,与生态环境质量相比,资源和能源是生产中更重要的投入要素,因此价格机制更容易在相对较短的时期内发挥作用,使资源利用和经济增长自发达到稳态水平。但是污染排放是生产活动的副产品,在现阶段的技术水平条件下无法完全消除,因而其负外部效应不能通过市场的自动调节使之内部化,对经济增长的制约作用相对滞后,而且由于人们对自然规律认识的局限,无法精确判断和预料生态阈值的存在和达到阈值的表现,以及生态破坏超过阈值对人类和自然界的影响程度和范围,因此需要外部力量干预生产活动,从而达到生态环境质量提高和经济增长的均衡增长路径。
第四章到第七章是经验研究。第四章从全局的角度分析中国环境质量和经济增长的关系。以时间序列分析方法为工具,验证我国环境-收入关系的曲线形状以及寻找环境质量发生转折时的人均收入水平,从时序维度考察环境与经济增长之间的长期均衡和短期波动。其中,简化模型和误差修正模型呈现的环境-收入关系说明EKC假定在我国现阶段不成立。通过环境与经济增长的VAR和SVAR模型估计,以及广义脉冲响应函数的模拟结构和方差分析发现,人均收入的正向冲击会导致能源消费和污染排放量增加,但是这一影响有滞后效应；利用环境规制等外部因素减少污染排放有短期增加人均GDP的效果,但是降低能源消费的强制性措施会对经济增长产生明显的负面影响；能源消费对人均GDP增长的贡献率达到40%以上,而工业三废对解释人均GDP的预测方差的贡献相对较小。得到的结果说明能源对经济增长产生的瓶颈作用已经越来越明显,但是污染排放对经济增长的制约作用还没有得到充分体现,这种反馈作用的滞后期比能源消费的滞后效应时间更长。
第五章分析环境质量变化的机理,以环境污染影响因素分解模型为基础,利用LMDI分解方法将总的污染物排放量变化分解为经济规模、人口增长、产业结构和排放强度四种效应,并且从理论和实证两方面检验隐藏在经济增长背后的各种驱动因素对环境质量变化的作用。实证结果发现,在我国经济发展的现阶段,经济规模和人口规模的扩大会增加工业三废的产生和排放,产业结构对工业三废排放变化的影响不确定,短期内产业结构的改变未能对工业污染物排放起到扭转作用,技术进步对污染排放的贡献为负,这是中和规模效应和人口效应的重要因素,是污染物排放降低的主要原因。这一部分同时利用分位数回归方法检验了其他因素对污染排放的影响。
第六章考察环境与经济增长关系的区域差异,利用我国各省区的面板数据建立Panel Data模型,从东中西部地理区域的角度研究环境污染与经济增长的关系。得到的结论是,虽然部分污染物与经济增长的关系符合EKC倒U型的假定,但是从转折点的位置看,我国大部分省份仍然处于污染物产生量和排放量上升的阶段,而且东中西部的污染-收入关系不尽相同。总的看来,工业污染排放仍然随着人均收入水平的上升而增加,但是在经济相对发达地区,部分生活污染物排放开始呈现下降的趋势,然而与此同时,这些地区的垃圾围城现象比较严重。
第七章研究环境污染、能源消费与经济增长的相互作用机制,利用我国各省区的面板数据,通过构建同时包含产出方程、污染方程、能源方程的3E模型,进一步考察环境与经济增长之间的内在反馈机制,同时检验经济系统外生变量对均衡产出、污染排放和能源消费的影响。估计结果显示,传统的生产要素投入,物质资本和劳动力是我国现阶段经济增长的主要推动力,我国的经济增长仍然处于投资驱动阶段；污染排放和能源消费的转折点还未达到,在现阶段,污染排放是产出无法避免的副产品,经济的快速增长必然伴随着工业污染的增加；能源作为生产过程中重要的资源投入,其消费的增加对产出水平有显著的促进作用。
第八章对全文的主要观点、结论和创新点进行了总结,并且在此基础上提出了环境和经济协调发展的政策建议。
本文的主要创新点如下：
1.传统的新古典增长模型中没有考虑环境资源因素对产出水平的影响,随着环境问题的凸显,环境资本作为和人力资本类似的独立于物质资本的一种生产要素,对经济增长的作用越来越不容忽视。另外,关于环境与经济增长的理论模型大多以效用函数为基础,利用最优化理论进行分析,极少从生产函数的角度考虑环境问题与经济增长的关系,以及其他外生因素对二者的影响。基于这两点理由,本文以索洛增长模型为基础,在其中加入环境资本(包括资源存量和生态环境质量)作为生产要素之一,建立环境索洛模型,并利用动态均衡分析方法对其进行定性分析。
2.利用LMDI因素分解方法将污染排放变化分解为规模效应、人口效应、结构效应、技术效应。虽然理论文献大多从规模效应、结构效应和技术效应三个角度综合推导出环境库兹涅茨倒U型曲线的存在,但在实证文献中很少有文章真正将影响收入变化的环境效应进行分解,本文填补了这项实证研究的空白,借鉴将能源消费变化进行分解的方法,采用LMDI因素分解方法将污染排放变化分解为规模效应、人口效应、结构效应和技术效应,发现环境污染-收入关系正是这四种效应正负折中的结果,为理论模型提供了更直接的经验支持。
3.以内生增长产出模型和EKC假定为基础,建立包含产出方程、环境污染方程和能源方程的3E (Economy Environment and Energy)模型对经济、环境污染和能源的相互作用和反馈机制进行分析,进一步考察三者之间的关系,同时分析各种经济因素对经济-资源-环境系统的影响。
4.分离生产和生活污染物,对于两类污染物EKC的实证分析,选用不同的指标衡量经济增长等影响因素。生产性污染物的产生和排放的经济主体是企业,而生活性污染物的排放主体是居民,因此需要建立不同的估计方程,考察不同的经济因素的影响。本文将这两类污染物区别对待,分别用人均GDP和居民消费水平衡量两个方程中的经济增长,对于其他的影响因素也根据经济理论和现实情况进行选择,更清楚的探讨了决定二者的经济因素,为设计环境规制时对两类污染物实施不同的政策手段提供了有价值的参考。
5.本文采用时间序列数据和面板数据,使用现代计量经济分析工具,从不同的模型入手,对能源消费和污染排放两大类环境问题与经济因素之间的关系进行了全面系统的分析,同时考察了污染排放的区域差异。其中SVAR模型和分位数回归模型应用于环境质量与经济增长关系的分析在国内尚未见到相关文献,这些计量方法为更深入细致的研究提供了有益的工具。
以上述环境质量与经济增长的定量研究为依据,本文提出了二者协调发展的政策建议,促进我国的资源和环境可持续发展这一目标的实现。
The increasingly fast depletion of energy and natural resources has become prominent in the social and economic development of the humankind. The everlasting environment pollution and ecological destruction means that the environmental problems that we face have extended from local areas into the entire globe and from the current generation into the next generation. The frequent abnormal climate changes keep warning us of the aggravating ecological deterioration. Against such a background, the relationship between environment quality and economic growth, an issue of time allocation about environment, has become one of the central themes in the studies of sustainable development, which requires both empirical and theoretical analyses on the possibility and path of evolution to the balanced development between environment and economy, on the basis of which some tentative suggestions can be offered on the decision-making and implementation of environment policies.
Beginning with the current Chinese economy and environment quality, this dissertation analyses quantitatively the interaction between environment deterioration and economic growth within the fundamental framework of macroeconomics with a view to discover the internal mechanism of environmental evolution. A theoretical model on environment and economic growth is first built, and then an empirical analysis with Chinese data is conducted from the perspective of the national and local differences. Meanwhile, the mechanism of environment changes is studied and finally the interaction between economic growth and environment quality (including pollution emission and energy consumption) is discussed.
The main contents and conclusions are as follows:
The first chapter introduces the purpose and scope of the study. The second chapter is a literature review of theoretical and empirical models on environment and economic growth, which provides a solid theoretical basis for this study.
The third chapter builds a theoretical model on the basis of the neoclassical growth model---the Solow Model. The new Environmental Solow Model incorporates environment as a capital input and utilizes the dynamic equilibrium analyses in mathematical economics. The results of study demonstrate that under certain conditions the path towards the balanced development between environment quality and economic growth can be found. Compared with ecological and environmental quality, natural resources and energy are more important factors of production, thus the price system, which will produce the equilibrium between resource utilization and economic growth, is likely to have more effects within a relatively short period. However, environment pollution is a byproduct of production, which cannot be completely eliminated at the current technological level. Consequently, the negative externalities of environment pollution can not be internalized through the market mechanism and the restraints on economic development have relative hysteresis. Moreover, because we have very limited knowledge about the law of nature, we can not determine exactly the existence of ecological threshold and the consequences on the humankind and the nature after reaching the threshold. Therefore, we need external forces to intervene in production so as to reach the path towards the balanced development of environment improvement and economic growth.
An empirical research is elaborated on from chapter 4 to chapter 7. Chapter 4 analyses the general relationship between environment quality and economic growth in China. With the tools of time series analyses, the curve shape of the relationship between environment and income is tested so as to identify the average income levels of the turning points of environmental quality. The long-term equilibrium and short-term fluctuation between environment quality and economic growth is studied from the perspective of time series. The simplified model and the error correction model show that the Environment Kuznets Curve Hypothesis does not hold. Through the VAR and SVAR model and the simulated structure and variance analysis of the generalized impulse response function, it is found that the positive impact of average income will result in the increase in energy consumption and pollution emission, but this impact has hysteresis; external forces to reduce pollution such as environmental regulations tend to increase average GDP in the short run, compulsory measures to reduce energy consumption will have evident negative effects on economic growth; the contribution of energy consumption to the growth of average GDP is over 40%, while solid waste, waste water, and waste gas contribute very little to the variance projection of average GDP. The results show that energy has an increasingly evident bottleneck effect on economic growth. However, the restraints of environment pollution on economic growth have not fully been embodied. Such feedbacks have a longer time lag than that of energy consumption.
The fifth chapter analyses the mechanism of environment quality changes, which is based on the decomposition analysis of environment pollution factors. The LMDI approach to decomposition analysis is used to decompose the changes of pollutant emission into the impacts of economic scale, population growth, industrial structure and emission intensity, and then a theoretical and empirical research tests the effects of all driving forces behind economic growth on the changes of environment quality. The results of the empirical research show that in the current stage of economic development the expansion of economic scale and the increase of population will increase the production and emission of solid waste, waste water and waste gas while the impact of industrial structure on the changes of pollutant emission is unstable because in the short run the change in industrial structure can not turn around the trend of industrial pollutant emission and technological progress has negative impacts on pollutant emission, which is an important factor in neutralizing the effect of scale and population and is the main reason for the reduction of pollutant emission. In this chapter the quantile regression is also used to test the impacts of other elements on pollutant emission.
The sixth chapter focuses on the regional differences in the relationship between environment and economic growth. A panel data model is built on the basis of relevant provincial data and the relationship between environment pollution and economic growth is tested on the data of the east, middle and west regions. The conclusion shows that the relationship between some pollutants and economic growth shows an inverted U shape, which is in conformity with the EKC hypothesis. However, from the perspective of all turning points, the production and emission of pollutants in most provinces are still on the rise and moreover the relationship between pollution and average income is different in different regions. Generally speaking, industrial pollutant emission still increases with the growth of average income level, but in some regions with relatively high average income the emission of some domestic pollutants has begun to decline while at the same time these regions are confronted with the serious problem of inadequate garbage landfills.
The seventh chapter studies the interaction between environment pollution, energy consumption and economic growth. A simultaneous system of equations including production function, pollution function, and energy function is built on the basis of Chinese provincial data with a view to examine the internal feedback mechanism between environment and economic growth and to test the impacts of exogenous variables in the economic system on equilibrium production, pollutant emission and energy consumption. The results of estimation demonstrate that traditional factors of production such as physical capital and labor are the major driving force of economic growth in current stage and Chinese economic development is still driven by investment; the turning point of pollution emission and energy consumption has yet to be reached; in current stage pollution emission is an inevitable byproduct of production and the fast economic growth will inevitably be concomitant with the increase in industrial pollution; energy consumption as an important input in the production process will promote a drastic increase in production.
The eighth chapter summarizes the main conclusions and innovative ideas of the dissertation, on the basis of which some tentative suggestions on the coordinated development of environment and economic growth are proposed.
The main innovative ideas of this dissertation are as follows:
1. The traditional neoclassical growth model excludes the impacts of environment on production. With the increasing prominence of environment problems, environmental capital, as a factor of production similar to human capital and independent from physical capital, has an increasingly undeniable impact on economic growth. In addition, most theoretical models on environment and economic growth are based on utility function which utilizes optimization theories. However, very few models examine the relationship between environment and economic growth from the perspective of production function and the impact of other exogenous variables on both elements. Therefore, on the basis of Solow growth model, this dissertation builds an Environment Solow Model which includes environment capital as a factor of production (including resource stock and ecological and environment quality) and conducts qualitative analysis with dynamic equilibrium approach.
2. The LMDI decomposition approach is used to decompose the changes of pollutant emissions into scale effect, population effect, structure effect and technological effect. Most theoretical articles prove the existence of the EKC from the three perspectives of scale, structure and technology, but very few empirical researches really decompose the effect of income changes on environment. This dissertation fills this gap and uses LMDI decomposition approach to decompose the changes of pollutant emissions into scale effect, population effect, structure effect and technological effect. The result shows that the pollution-income relationship is the mixed result of the four effects, which provides more direct empirical support for relevant theoretical models.
3. On the basis of endogenous growth model and the EKC hypothesis, a 3E model (Economy, Environment and Energy) including production function, pollution function and energy function is built to analyze the interaction and feedback between economy, environment and energy and to analyze the impact of all economic factors on the Economy-Resource-Environment system.
4. This dissertation separates industrial and domestic wastes, conducts empirical researches to test the EKC of the two kinds of wastes, and chooses different indexes to measure elements such as economic growth. Enterprises produce and discharge most industrial pollutants while residents produce most domestic wastes, therefore different estimation function need to be built in order to examine the impacts of different economic elements. This dissertation discriminates these two types of wastes and measures economic growth with average GDP and resident consumption level respectively in two functions. The other factors are selected according to economic theories and current realities. The economic factors that determine the two types of wastes are clarified and valuable policy suggestions for the two types of pollutants are proposed.
5. This dissertation adopts time series data and panel data, uses modern econometric tools, begins with different models and conducts a systematic and comprehensive analysis on the relationship between two environment problems including energy consumption and pollutant emission and economic growth
Building on the quantitative research on the relationship between environment quality and economic growth, this dissertation proposes some policy suggestions to coordinate the relationship between environment quality and economic growth with a view to facilitate the achievement of the sustainable development of resource and environment.
本文在宏观经济学的基本框架下,从中国现实的经济、环境状况出发,运用定量分析方法讨论环境恶化与经济增长之间的作用和反馈机制,分析环境质量演化的内在机理。文章首先建立环境和经济增长的理论模型,而后采用中国的数据从全局和区域差异的角度进行实证分析,同时考察环境质量变化的机理,最后讨论经济增长和环境质量(包括污染排放和能源消费)的相互作用机制。
本文的内容和主要研究结论如下：
第一章介绍选题的动机和意义、研究的范畴和内容。第二章是关于环境与经济增长的理论模型和实证文献综述,为本文的研究提供理论基础。
第三章是理论模型构建,以新古典增长模型中的索洛模型为基础,构建了将环境看作一种资本投入的环境索洛模型,使用数理经济学的动态均衡分析方法进行研究。分析的结果表明,在一定条件下,环境质量和经济发展的均衡增长路径是可实现的,与生态环境质量相比,资源和能源是生产中更重要的投入要素,因此价格机制更容易在相对较短的时期内发挥作用,使资源利用和经济增长自发达到稳态水平。但是污染排放是生产活动的副产品,在现阶段的技术水平条件下无法完全消除,因而其负外部效应不能通过市场的自动调节使之内部化,对经济增长的制约作用相对滞后,而且由于人们对自然规律认识的局限,无法精确判断和预料生态阈值的存在和达到阈值的表现,以及生态破坏超过阈值对人类和自然界的影响程度和范围,因此需要外部力量干预生产活动,从而达到生态环境质量提高和经济增长的均衡增长路径。
第四章到第七章是经验研究。第四章从全局的角度分析中国环境质量和经济增长的关系。以时间序列分析方法为工具,验证我国环境-收入关系的曲线形状以及寻找环境质量发生转折时的人均收入水平,从时序维度考察环境与经济增长之间的长期均衡和短期波动。其中,简化模型和误差修正模型呈现的环境-收入关系说明EKC假定在我国现阶段不成立。通过环境与经济增长的VAR和SVAR模型估计,以及广义脉冲响应函数的模拟结构和方差分析发现,人均收入的正向冲击会导致能源消费和污染排放量增加,但是这一影响有滞后效应；利用环境规制等外部因素减少污染排放有短期增加人均GDP的效果,但是降低能源消费的强制性措施会对经济增长产生明显的负面影响；能源消费对人均GDP增长的贡献率达到40%以上,而工业三废对解释人均GDP的预测方差的贡献相对较小。得到的结果说明能源对经济增长产生的瓶颈作用已经越来越明显,但是污染排放对经济增长的制约作用还没有得到充分体现,这种反馈作用的滞后期比能源消费的滞后效应时间更长。
第五章分析环境质量变化的机理,以环境污染影响因素分解模型为基础,利用LMDI分解方法将总的污染物排放量变化分解为经济规模、人口增长、产业结构和排放强度四种效应,并且从理论和实证两方面检验隐藏在经济增长背后的各种驱动因素对环境质量变化的作用。实证结果发现,在我国经济发展的现阶段,经济规模和人口规模的扩大会增加工业三废的产生和排放,产业结构对工业三废排放变化的影响不确定,短期内产业结构的改变未能对工业污染物排放起到扭转作用,技术进步对污染排放的贡献为负,这是中和规模效应和人口效应的重要因素,是污染物排放降低的主要原因。这一部分同时利用分位数回归方法检验了其他因素对污染排放的影响。
第六章考察环境与经济增长关系的区域差异,利用我国各省区的面板数据建立Panel Data模型,从东中西部地理区域的角度研究环境污染与经济增长的关系。得到的结论是,虽然部分污染物与经济增长的关系符合EKC倒U型的假定,但是从转折点的位置看,我国大部分省份仍然处于污染物产生量和排放量上升的阶段,而且东中西部的污染-收入关系不尽相同。总的看来,工业污染排放仍然随着人均收入水平的上升而增加,但是在经济相对发达地区,部分生活污染物排放开始呈现下降的趋势,然而与此同时,这些地区的垃圾围城现象比较严重。
第七章研究环境污染、能源消费与经济增长的相互作用机制,利用我国各省区的面板数据,通过构建同时包含产出方程、污染方程、能源方程的3E模型,进一步考察环境与经济增长之间的内在反馈机制,同时检验经济系统外生变量对均衡产出、污染排放和能源消费的影响。估计结果显示,传统的生产要素投入,物质资本和劳动力是我国现阶段经济增长的主要推动力,我国的经济增长仍然处于投资驱动阶段；污染排放和能源消费的转折点还未达到,在现阶段,污染排放是产出无法避免的副产品,经济的快速增长必然伴随着工业污染的增加；能源作为生产过程中重要的资源投入,其消费的增加对产出水平有显著的促进作用。
第八章对全文的主要观点、结论和创新点进行了总结,并且在此基础上提出了环境和经济协调发展的政策建议。
本文的主要创新点如下：
1.传统的新古典增长模型中没有考虑环境资源因素对产出水平的影响,随着环境问题的凸显,环境资本作为和人力资本类似的独立于物质资本的一种生产要素,对经济增长的作用越来越不容忽视。另外,关于环境与经济增长的理论模型大多以效用函数为基础,利用最优化理论进行分析,极少从生产函数的角度考虑环境问题与经济增长的关系,以及其他外生因素对二者的影响。基于这两点理由,本文以索洛增长模型为基础,在其中加入环境资本(包括资源存量和生态环境质量)作为生产要素之一,建立环境索洛模型,并利用动态均衡分析方法对其进行定性分析。
2.利用LMDI因素分解方法将污染排放变化分解为规模效应、人口效应、结构效应、技术效应。虽然理论文献大多从规模效应、结构效应和技术效应三个角度综合推导出环境库兹涅茨倒U型曲线的存在,但在实证文献中很少有文章真正将影响收入变化的环境效应进行分解,本文填补了这项实证研究的空白,借鉴将能源消费变化进行分解的方法,采用LMDI因素分解方法将污染排放变化分解为规模效应、人口效应、结构效应和技术效应,发现环境污染-收入关系正是这四种效应正负折中的结果,为理论模型提供了更直接的经验支持。
3.以内生增长产出模型和EKC假定为基础,建立包含产出方程、环境污染方程和能源方程的3E (Economy Environment and Energy)模型对经济、环境污染和能源的相互作用和反馈机制进行分析,进一步考察三者之间的关系,同时分析各种经济因素对经济-资源-环境系统的影响。
4.分离生产和生活污染物,对于两类污染物EKC的实证分析,选用不同的指标衡量经济增长等影响因素。生产性污染物的产生和排放的经济主体是企业,而生活性污染物的排放主体是居民,因此需要建立不同的估计方程,考察不同的经济因素的影响。本文将这两类污染物区别对待,分别用人均GDP和居民消费水平衡量两个方程中的经济增长,对于其他的影响因素也根据经济理论和现实情况进行选择,更清楚的探讨了决定二者的经济因素,为设计环境规制时对两类污染物实施不同的政策手段提供了有价值的参考。
5.本文采用时间序列数据和面板数据,使用现代计量经济分析工具,从不同的模型入手,对能源消费和污染排放两大类环境问题与经济因素之间的关系进行了全面系统的分析,同时考察了污染排放的区域差异。其中SVAR模型和分位数回归模型应用于环境质量与经济增长关系的分析在国内尚未见到相关文献,这些计量方法为更深入细致的研究提供了有益的工具。
以上述环境质量与经济增长的定量研究为依据,本文提出了二者协调发展的政策建议,促进我国的资源和环境可持续发展这一目标的实现。
The increasingly fast depletion of energy and natural resources has become prominent in the social and economic development of the humankind. The everlasting environment pollution and ecological destruction means that the environmental problems that we face have extended from local areas into the entire globe and from the current generation into the next generation. The frequent abnormal climate changes keep warning us of the aggravating ecological deterioration. Against such a background, the relationship between environment quality and economic growth, an issue of time allocation about environment, has become one of the central themes in the studies of sustainable development, which requires both empirical and theoretical analyses on the possibility and path of evolution to the balanced development between environment and economy, on the basis of which some tentative suggestions can be offered on the decision-making and implementation of environment policies.
Beginning with the current Chinese economy and environment quality, this dissertation analyses quantitatively the interaction between environment deterioration and economic growth within the fundamental framework of macroeconomics with a view to discover the internal mechanism of environmental evolution. A theoretical model on environment and economic growth is first built, and then an empirical analysis with Chinese data is conducted from the perspective of the national and local differences. Meanwhile, the mechanism of environment changes is studied and finally the interaction between economic growth and environment quality (including pollution emission and energy consumption) is discussed.
The main contents and conclusions are as follows:
The first chapter introduces the purpose and scope of the study. The second chapter is a literature review of theoretical and empirical models on environment and economic growth, which provides a solid theoretical basis for this study.
The third chapter builds a theoretical model on the basis of the neoclassical growth model---the Solow Model. The new Environmental Solow Model incorporates environment as a capital input and utilizes the dynamic equilibrium analyses in mathematical economics. The results of study demonstrate that under certain conditions the path towards the balanced development between environment quality and economic growth can be found. Compared with ecological and environmental quality, natural resources and energy are more important factors of production, thus the price system, which will produce the equilibrium between resource utilization and economic growth, is likely to have more effects within a relatively short period. However, environment pollution is a byproduct of production, which cannot be completely eliminated at the current technological level. Consequently, the negative externalities of environment pollution can not be internalized through the market mechanism and the restraints on economic development have relative hysteresis. Moreover, because we have very limited knowledge about the law of nature, we can not determine exactly the existence of ecological threshold and the consequences on the humankind and the nature after reaching the threshold. Therefore, we need external forces to intervene in production so as to reach the path towards the balanced development of environment improvement and economic growth.
An empirical research is elaborated on from chapter 4 to chapter 7. Chapter 4 analyses the general relationship between environment quality and economic growth in China. With the tools of time series analyses, the curve shape of the relationship between environment and income is tested so as to identify the average income levels of the turning points of environmental quality. The long-term equilibrium and short-term fluctuation between environment quality and economic growth is studied from the perspective of time series. The simplified model and the error correction model show that the Environment Kuznets Curve Hypothesis does not hold. Through the VAR and SVAR model and the simulated structure and variance analysis of the generalized impulse response function, it is found that the positive impact of average income will result in the increase in energy consumption and pollution emission, but this impact has hysteresis; external forces to reduce pollution such as environmental regulations tend to increase average GDP in the short run, compulsory measures to reduce energy consumption will have evident negative effects on economic growth; the contribution of energy consumption to the growth of average GDP is over 40%, while solid waste, waste water, and waste gas contribute very little to the variance projection of average GDP. The results show that energy has an increasingly evident bottleneck effect on economic growth. However, the restraints of environment pollution on economic growth have not fully been embodied. Such feedbacks have a longer time lag than that of energy consumption.
The fifth chapter analyses the mechanism of environment quality changes, which is based on the decomposition analysis of environment pollution factors. The LMDI approach to decomposition analysis is used to decompose the changes of pollutant emission into the impacts of economic scale, population growth, industrial structure and emission intensity, and then a theoretical and empirical research tests the effects of all driving forces behind economic growth on the changes of environment quality. The results of the empirical research show that in the current stage of economic development the expansion of economic scale and the increase of population will increase the production and emission of solid waste, waste water and waste gas while the impact of industrial structure on the changes of pollutant emission is unstable because in the short run the change in industrial structure can not turn around the trend of industrial pollutant emission and technological progress has negative impacts on pollutant emission, which is an important factor in neutralizing the effect of scale and population and is the main reason for the reduction of pollutant emission. In this chapter the quantile regression is also used to test the impacts of other elements on pollutant emission.
The sixth chapter focuses on the regional differences in the relationship between environment and economic growth. A panel data model is built on the basis of relevant provincial data and the relationship between environment pollution and economic growth is tested on the data of the east, middle and west regions. The conclusion shows that the relationship between some pollutants and economic growth shows an inverted U shape, which is in conformity with the EKC hypothesis. However, from the perspective of all turning points, the production and emission of pollutants in most provinces are still on the rise and moreover the relationship between pollution and average income is different in different regions. Generally speaking, industrial pollutant emission still increases with the growth of average income level, but in some regions with relatively high average income the emission of some domestic pollutants has begun to decline while at the same time these regions are confronted with the serious problem of inadequate garbage landfills.
The seventh chapter studies the interaction between environment pollution, energy consumption and economic growth. A simultaneous system of equations including production function, pollution function, and energy function is built on the basis of Chinese provincial data with a view to examine the internal feedback mechanism between environment and economic growth and to test the impacts of exogenous variables in the economic system on equilibrium production, pollutant emission and energy consumption. The results of estimation demonstrate that traditional factors of production such as physical capital and labor are the major driving force of economic growth in current stage and Chinese economic development is still driven by investment; the turning point of pollution emission and energy consumption has yet to be reached; in current stage pollution emission is an inevitable byproduct of production and the fast economic growth will inevitably be concomitant with the increase in industrial pollution; energy consumption as an important input in the production process will promote a drastic increase in production.
The eighth chapter summarizes the main conclusions and innovative ideas of the dissertation, on the basis of which some tentative suggestions on the coordinated development of environment and economic growth are proposed.
The main innovative ideas of this dissertation are as follows:
1. The traditional neoclassical growth model excludes the impacts of environment on production. With the increasing prominence of environment problems, environmental capital, as a factor of production similar to human capital and independent from physical capital, has an increasingly undeniable impact on economic growth. In addition, most theoretical models on environment and economic growth are based on utility function which utilizes optimization theories. However, very few models examine the relationship between environment and economic growth from the perspective of production function and the impact of other exogenous variables on both elements. Therefore, on the basis of Solow growth model, this dissertation builds an Environment Solow Model which includes environment capital as a factor of production (including resource stock and ecological and environment quality) and conducts qualitative analysis with dynamic equilibrium approach.
2. The LMDI decomposition approach is used to decompose the changes of pollutant emissions into scale effect, population effect, structure effect and technological effect. Most theoretical articles prove the existence of the EKC from the three perspectives of scale, structure and technology, but very few empirical researches really decompose the effect of income changes on environment. This dissertation fills this gap and uses LMDI decomposition approach to decompose the changes of pollutant emissions into scale effect, population effect, structure effect and technological effect. The result shows that the pollution-income relationship is the mixed result of the four effects, which provides more direct empirical support for relevant theoretical models.
3. On the basis of endogenous growth model and the EKC hypothesis, a 3E model (Economy, Environment and Energy) including production function, pollution function and energy function is built to analyze the interaction and feedback between economy, environment and energy and to analyze the impact of all economic factors on the Economy-Resource-Environment system.
4. This dissertation separates industrial and domestic wastes, conducts empirical researches to test the EKC of the two kinds of wastes, and chooses different indexes to measure elements such as economic growth. Enterprises produce and discharge most industrial pollutants while residents produce most domestic wastes, therefore different estimation function need to be built in order to examine the impacts of different economic elements. This dissertation discriminates these two types of wastes and measures economic growth with average GDP and resident consumption level respectively in two functions. The other factors are selected according to economic theories and current realities. The economic factors that determine the two types of wastes are clarified and valuable policy suggestions for the two types of pollutants are proposed.
5. This dissertation adopts time series data and panel data, uses modern econometric tools, begins with different models and conducts a systematic and comprehensive analysis on the relationship between two environment problems including energy consumption and pollutant emission and economic growth
Building on the quantitative research on the relationship between environment quality and economic growth, this dissertation proposes some policy suggestions to coordinate the relationship between environment quality and economic growth with a view to facilitate the achievement of the sustainable development of resource and environment.
引文
①《中华人民共和国环境保护法》(2003)。
②参见阿尼尔·马康德雅等(2006)《环境经济学辞典》第116页。
①参见鲁传一(2004)《资源与环境经济学》第6页。
②参见高敏雪(2004)《资源环境统计》第18-20页。
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②参见阿尼尔·马康德雅等(2006)《环境经济学辞典》第116页。
①参见鲁传一(2004)《资源与环境经济学》第6页。
②参见高敏雪(2004)《资源环境统计》第18-20页。
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