区域水安全战略的仿真评价研究
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摘要
水是区域社会经济协调健康发展的战略性基础资源,也是区域生态环境系统持续良性循环的控制性要素,水安全危机是人类生存、生产及发展正面临的最严重挑战之一。研究采取科学合理的区域水安全战略,对于区域经济社会和生态环境的发展至关重要。
本文在以往研究基础上,明确了水安全战略体系的主体和主要构成要素,系统分析了水安全的战略方针、战略目标、战略措施、战略重点和战略步骤等主要构成要素的内涵,及其相互关系,建立了区域水安全战略系统的框架体系。定量刻化了水与社会、经济、环境发展之间的互动影响关系,将包括供水、防洪和水生态环境等主要涉水要素,与社会、经济、环境系统,耦合成一个复杂的水安全战略模拟系统,利用系统动力学的基本理论和方法,建立起了完整的区域水安全战略的系统动力学仿真模型。由投影寻踪法与遗传算法等方法耦合,提出了基于实数编码加速遗传算法的改进投影寻踪方法(GPPGE),建立了基于实数编码加速遗传算法的改进投影寻踪方法的区域水安全等级评价模型(GPPGE)。该模型可以利用最佳投影方向,自动确定水安全评价指标的权重,避免了其它评价方法中人工定权的主观性。论文最后以广东省北江下游及其三角洲地区为例,进行了系统概化与实证分析研究。根据研究区域的特点和具体情况,设计了8个水安全战略方案,进行水安全战略的系统动力学仿真模型(SD)模拟运行,和水安全等级评价模型(GPPGE)计算分析,得出各方案未来50年水安全与社会经济环境耦合系统的发展趋势,以及不同时期的水安全综合评价等级,并在评价结果分析的基础上,得出了保障该地区水安全的战略建议。
Water is commonly considered as not only a strategically basic resource that supporting the coordinated and healthily sustained development of regional society and economy, but a factor that controlling the sustainable benign cycle between the regional ecosystem and the environment. Water security crisis is one of the most serious challenges to human's living, producing and development. Researches on scientific and reasonable regional water security strategy are of most importance to developments of regional economic society and ecological environment.This dissertation proposes the conception and the connotation of regional water security strategy, as well as attributes, characteristics, structure and its framework according to the principles and objectives of overall coordinated, sustained development of regional social economy and ecological environment. According to scientific development conception, a system dynamics model is established on thoughts of sustainable development, systematic analysis and strategy using a regional scale, which is a application of theory and methodology of system dynamics, basing on a systematic analysis on relations of interactive effects between the development of regional population, economy, society, ecology and environment and regional water security system. This model is used to carry a dynamic simulation of water security strategy and evaluate the effects resulting from the simulation.Based on conception of reasonableness and according to the overall, coordinated and sustained scientific development conception, the evaluation index system of regional water security is constructed and a GPPGE model is also developed in this dissertation combined with one of the improved real-code speedup genetic algorithms—projection trace approach. Scientific evaluation is executed on the new established model. The effects of measures of water security strategy to social economy and environment within a certain period to come are analyzed to provide the scientific basis for regional sustainable development. the lower reaches of North River in Guangdong province are considered as the case study to simulate dynamically the system of regional water strategy. Reasonableness evaluation is made on the simulation results. Conclusions and the relative suggestions are represented at the end of the dissertation.
本文在以往研究基础上,明确了水安全战略体系的主体和主要构成要素,系统分析了水安全的战略方针、战略目标、战略措施、战略重点和战略步骤等主要构成要素的内涵,及其相互关系,建立了区域水安全战略系统的框架体系。定量刻化了水与社会、经济、环境发展之间的互动影响关系,将包括供水、防洪和水生态环境等主要涉水要素,与社会、经济、环境系统,耦合成一个复杂的水安全战略模拟系统,利用系统动力学的基本理论和方法,建立起了完整的区域水安全战略的系统动力学仿真模型。由投影寻踪法与遗传算法等方法耦合,提出了基于实数编码加速遗传算法的改进投影寻踪方法(GPPGE),建立了基于实数编码加速遗传算法的改进投影寻踪方法的区域水安全等级评价模型(GPPGE)。该模型可以利用最佳投影方向,自动确定水安全评价指标的权重,避免了其它评价方法中人工定权的主观性。论文最后以广东省北江下游及其三角洲地区为例,进行了系统概化与实证分析研究。根据研究区域的特点和具体情况,设计了8个水安全战略方案,进行水安全战略的系统动力学仿真模型(SD)模拟运行,和水安全等级评价模型(GPPGE)计算分析,得出各方案未来50年水安全与社会经济环境耦合系统的发展趋势,以及不同时期的水安全综合评价等级,并在评价结果分析的基础上,得出了保障该地区水安全的战略建议。
Water is commonly considered as not only a strategically basic resource that supporting the coordinated and healthily sustained development of regional society and economy, but a factor that controlling the sustainable benign cycle between the regional ecosystem and the environment. Water security crisis is one of the most serious challenges to human's living, producing and development. Researches on scientific and reasonable regional water security strategy are of most importance to developments of regional economic society and ecological environment.This dissertation proposes the conception and the connotation of regional water security strategy, as well as attributes, characteristics, structure and its framework according to the principles and objectives of overall coordinated, sustained development of regional social economy and ecological environment. According to scientific development conception, a system dynamics model is established on thoughts of sustainable development, systematic analysis and strategy using a regional scale, which is a application of theory and methodology of system dynamics, basing on a systematic analysis on relations of interactive effects between the development of regional population, economy, society, ecology and environment and regional water security system. This model is used to carry a dynamic simulation of water security strategy and evaluate the effects resulting from the simulation.Based on conception of reasonableness and according to the overall, coordinated and sustained scientific development conception, the evaluation index system of regional water security is constructed and a GPPGE model is also developed in this dissertation combined with one of the improved real-code speedup genetic algorithms—projection trace approach. Scientific evaluation is executed on the new established model. The effects of measures of water security strategy to social economy and environment within a certain period to come are analyzed to provide the scientific basis for regional sustainable development. the lower reaches of North River in Guangdong province are considered as the case study to simulate dynamically the system of regional water strategy. Reasonableness evaluation is made on the simulation results. Conclusions and the relative suggestions are represented at the end of the dissertation.
引文
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