实物期权理论在国际投资决策中的应用
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摘要
本文用实物期权方法针对国际贸易与投资进行了一定的研究，从理论和建模两方面着手，内容包括融合实物期权的FDI理论、基于汇率的出口贸易相关策略以及国际投资方式的转换决策。
第一章对实物期权理论做了一个综述，介绍了从传统DCF方法到结合金融期权定价方法的实物期权理论的发展过程。着重介绍了有关实物期权的重要文献及其基本概念和实用方法。
第二章尝试创建了融合实物期权思想的FDI理论。传统的FDI理论都从FDI的外部环境出发来考虑问题，我们则从FDI的特点出发，建立了国际化生产以追求包含实物期权价值的净现值最大化为目标的基础观点。并用此观点合理的解释了FDI优于其他国际化模式的原因；FDI近来快速增长的现象：折衷理论在所有权优势上的缺陷，还对东道国如何吸引外资提出了建议，最后，以海尔集团为实例进一步证明我们的观点。
第三章基于波动汇率对出口贸易决策进行研究。原有的关于出口贸易的决策研究都是以何时何地进行贸易为主要研究方向，我们考虑到最近的人民币升值问题，针对波动汇率，结合破产决策，以债务人价值最大化为条件，在此基础上求得宣告破产的汇率临界值，分析了销售价格、投资成本与不确定性对汇率临界值的影响。还在考虑迟滞现象的前提下结合筹资策略，分析出口投资的进入决策，通过汇率给出了筹资策略与投资时间之间的相互关系，得到的结果可以供投资与筹资者借鉴。
第四章用实物期权方法对国际投资方式的转换进行建模分析。与原有研究不
This thesis is focused on the real options approach applied to international trades and investments. The main content includes the FDI theory with real options thinking; the export decisions in presence of exchange rate uncertainty and the switching decisions about international investment modes.
In the chapter 1, a review is given about real options theory. We introduce the develop process from traditional DCF approach to real options theory combined with financial options valuation approach. And the emphasis is the literatures about real options , the basic concepts and the practically methods.
In the chapter 2, we tried to establish a FDI theory combined with real options thinking. The traditional FDI theory is thinking over the problem from exterior environment, while our thinking is from the characteristic about FDI. We establish the basic point -the international productions' aim is pursuing the maximize of the net present value including real options' value. And we use this point to explain the reason of why FDI preferred to other international modes; the appearance of FDI's rapid increasing; OIL theory's limitation in ownership advantage; and give our advises about how to attract the overseas investment. Finally, Haier group is used as a example.
In the chapter 3, we researched the exporting decisions in presence
第一章对实物期权理论做了一个综述，介绍了从传统DCF方法到结合金融期权定价方法的实物期权理论的发展过程。着重介绍了有关实物期权的重要文献及其基本概念和实用方法。
第二章尝试创建了融合实物期权思想的FDI理论。传统的FDI理论都从FDI的外部环境出发来考虑问题，我们则从FDI的特点出发，建立了国际化生产以追求包含实物期权价值的净现值最大化为目标的基础观点。并用此观点合理的解释了FDI优于其他国际化模式的原因；FDI近来快速增长的现象：折衷理论在所有权优势上的缺陷，还对东道国如何吸引外资提出了建议，最后，以海尔集团为实例进一步证明我们的观点。
第三章基于波动汇率对出口贸易决策进行研究。原有的关于出口贸易的决策研究都是以何时何地进行贸易为主要研究方向，我们考虑到最近的人民币升值问题，针对波动汇率，结合破产决策，以债务人价值最大化为条件，在此基础上求得宣告破产的汇率临界值，分析了销售价格、投资成本与不确定性对汇率临界值的影响。还在考虑迟滞现象的前提下结合筹资策略，分析出口投资的进入决策，通过汇率给出了筹资策略与投资时间之间的相互关系，得到的结果可以供投资与筹资者借鉴。
第四章用实物期权方法对国际投资方式的转换进行建模分析。与原有研究不
This thesis is focused on the real options approach applied to international trades and investments. The main content includes the FDI theory with real options thinking; the export decisions in presence of exchange rate uncertainty and the switching decisions about international investment modes.
In the chapter 1, a review is given about real options theory. We introduce the develop process from traditional DCF approach to real options theory combined with financial options valuation approach. And the emphasis is the literatures about real options , the basic concepts and the practically methods.
In the chapter 2, we tried to establish a FDI theory combined with real options thinking. The traditional FDI theory is thinking over the problem from exterior environment, while our thinking is from the characteristic about FDI. We establish the basic point -the international productions' aim is pursuing the maximize of the net present value including real options' value. And we use this point to explain the reason of why FDI preferred to other international modes; the appearance of FDI's rapid increasing; OIL theory's limitation in ownership advantage; and give our advises about how to attract the overseas investment. Finally, Haier group is used as a example.
In the chapter 3, we researched the exporting decisions in presence
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