淮河流域农业种植制度的气候风险评估
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摘要
本文应用生态适宜度理论和模糊数学方法,建立适宜度模型,并在气候适宜度的基础上,综合考虑适宜度及其概率分布,构建风险度模型,对淮河流域双季稻、水稻-冬小麦和夏玉米-冬小麦三种种植制度的气候适宜度和气候风险度进行评估。最后,结合IPCC A2气候情景下稻麦、玉麦、双季稻的气候适宜度和气候风险度的状况,对淮河流域的种植制度进行分类。
(1)淮河流域不同种植制度的气候风险度差异明显。双季稻种植制度的气候风险度最高,区域分布由中部向东部沿海以及西部、西南部山区递增;稻麦种植制度的气候风险度较低,其空间分布主要由东部沿海向西部山区递增;玉麦种植制度的气候风险度最低,空间分布呈现出由东南沿海向西北内陆增加的趋势。
(2)淮河流域双季稻、稻麦、玉麦三种种植制度的气候风险度都呈递增趋势,但风险度变化存在着区域差异,主要表现为东部气候风险度呈递减趋势,西部气候风险度呈递增趋势。
(3)从时间上看,淮河流域双季稻、稻麦、玉麦三种种植制度的气候适宜度都呈下降趋势;其中,温度适宜度呈上升趋势,降水适宜度和日照适宜度呈递减趋势。从空间上看,双季稻气候适宜度强减型横贯整个流域中部,弱增型则分布在淮河流域北部和南部山区;稻麦气候适宜度强减型主要集中在流域的西部,弱增型则集中在流域的东南部;玉麦气候适宜度强减型主要集中在流域的西部山区,弱增型则集中在东北部以及东南部的平原区域。
(4)在未来气候变化情景下,淮河流域稻麦、玉麦、双季稻的气候适宜度都有所升高,且双季稻和玉麦种植制度下的气候适宜度空间格局发生了较大的变化;三种种植制度的气候风险度都有明显的下降趋势,其中,双季稻的气候风险度下降幅度最大,玉麦的气候风险度下降幅度最小。
(5)综合三种种植制度的气候适宜度及气候风险度可知,淮河流域北部适合发展玉麦种植制度;南部适合发展稻麦种植制度;双季稻目前气候适宜度仍然不高,风险度大,不宜大面积发展。但在未来气候情景下,随着双季稻气候风险度的大幅度下降,可以大面积推广。
Based on the eco-fitness theory and fuzzy mathematics method , this paper establishes climate suitability model; and then , under consideration of the climate suitability and its probability distribution, this paper establishes climate risk model and evaluates climate suitability and climate risk of double-crop rice, wheat-rice and wheat-corn cropping systems . Finally, this paper classify the cropping system of Huaihe Watershed by climate suitability and climate risk of wheat-rice, wheat-corn, double cropping rice under the IPCC A2 climate scenario.
(1) The climate risk degree is significantly different in different cropping system. Double cropping rice is the highest, and the climate risk degree gradually increases from the central coast to the east and west; wheat-rice cropping system is lower and the distribution gradually increases from east coast to the western mountains; wheat-corn cropping system is the lowest and it shows an increasing trend from the southeast to the northwest coast.
(2) The climate risk degree of cropping system in Huaihe Watershed are all increased, but the change of climate risk degree is different in spatial distribution, the eastern shows weak reduction and the Western shows increased trend.
(3) Judging from the entire time series, the climate suitability of cropping system are gradually decreasing; which the temperature suitability rises, precipitation and sunshine suitability shows decreasing. Judging from spatial distribution, the climate suitability of double cropping rice intensively decreases across the entire watershed; wheat-rice intensively decreases in west; wheat-corn strongly decreases in the west valley.
(4) Under the future climate scenario, the climate suitability of the double cropping rice, wheat-rice and wheat-corn double cropping system are increases at different levels in Huaihe Watershed; and the spatial distribution of climate suitability of double cropping rice and wheat-corn has changed a lot; the climate risk degree of the three kinds of cropping system has clear downward trend, in which the climate risk of double cropping rice drops sharply, and wheat-corn drops in minimum.
(5) Compositing the climate suitability and climate risk degree of three cropping system, the results showed that the wheat-corn cropping system is suitable to the northern; the wheat-rice cropping system is suitable to the Southern. Nowadays the double cropping rice shows low climate suitability and high climate risk degree, so it is not suitable to development in most area in Huaihe Watershed. Through studied on the future climate change scenario, it shows that the climate risk of double cropping rice will descend sharply, it can be promote to planting in most area.
(1)淮河流域不同种植制度的气候风险度差异明显。双季稻种植制度的气候风险度最高,区域分布由中部向东部沿海以及西部、西南部山区递增;稻麦种植制度的气候风险度较低,其空间分布主要由东部沿海向西部山区递增;玉麦种植制度的气候风险度最低,空间分布呈现出由东南沿海向西北内陆增加的趋势。
(2)淮河流域双季稻、稻麦、玉麦三种种植制度的气候风险度都呈递增趋势,但风险度变化存在着区域差异,主要表现为东部气候风险度呈递减趋势,西部气候风险度呈递增趋势。
(3)从时间上看,淮河流域双季稻、稻麦、玉麦三种种植制度的气候适宜度都呈下降趋势;其中,温度适宜度呈上升趋势,降水适宜度和日照适宜度呈递减趋势。从空间上看,双季稻气候适宜度强减型横贯整个流域中部,弱增型则分布在淮河流域北部和南部山区;稻麦气候适宜度强减型主要集中在流域的西部,弱增型则集中在流域的东南部;玉麦气候适宜度强减型主要集中在流域的西部山区,弱增型则集中在东北部以及东南部的平原区域。
(4)在未来气候变化情景下,淮河流域稻麦、玉麦、双季稻的气候适宜度都有所升高,且双季稻和玉麦种植制度下的气候适宜度空间格局发生了较大的变化;三种种植制度的气候风险度都有明显的下降趋势,其中,双季稻的气候风险度下降幅度最大,玉麦的气候风险度下降幅度最小。
(5)综合三种种植制度的气候适宜度及气候风险度可知,淮河流域北部适合发展玉麦种植制度;南部适合发展稻麦种植制度;双季稻目前气候适宜度仍然不高,风险度大,不宜大面积发展。但在未来气候情景下,随着双季稻气候风险度的大幅度下降,可以大面积推广。
Based on the eco-fitness theory and fuzzy mathematics method , this paper establishes climate suitability model; and then , under consideration of the climate suitability and its probability distribution, this paper establishes climate risk model and evaluates climate suitability and climate risk of double-crop rice, wheat-rice and wheat-corn cropping systems . Finally, this paper classify the cropping system of Huaihe Watershed by climate suitability and climate risk of wheat-rice, wheat-corn, double cropping rice under the IPCC A2 climate scenario.
(1) The climate risk degree is significantly different in different cropping system. Double cropping rice is the highest, and the climate risk degree gradually increases from the central coast to the east and west; wheat-rice cropping system is lower and the distribution gradually increases from east coast to the western mountains; wheat-corn cropping system is the lowest and it shows an increasing trend from the southeast to the northwest coast.
(2) The climate risk degree of cropping system in Huaihe Watershed are all increased, but the change of climate risk degree is different in spatial distribution, the eastern shows weak reduction and the Western shows increased trend.
(3) Judging from the entire time series, the climate suitability of cropping system are gradually decreasing; which the temperature suitability rises, precipitation and sunshine suitability shows decreasing. Judging from spatial distribution, the climate suitability of double cropping rice intensively decreases across the entire watershed; wheat-rice intensively decreases in west; wheat-corn strongly decreases in the west valley.
(4) Under the future climate scenario, the climate suitability of the double cropping rice, wheat-rice and wheat-corn double cropping system are increases at different levels in Huaihe Watershed; and the spatial distribution of climate suitability of double cropping rice and wheat-corn has changed a lot; the climate risk degree of the three kinds of cropping system has clear downward trend, in which the climate risk of double cropping rice drops sharply, and wheat-corn drops in minimum.
(5) Compositing the climate suitability and climate risk degree of three cropping system, the results showed that the wheat-corn cropping system is suitable to the northern; the wheat-rice cropping system is suitable to the Southern. Nowadays the double cropping rice shows low climate suitability and high climate risk degree, so it is not suitable to development in most area in Huaihe Watershed. Through studied on the future climate change scenario, it shows that the climate risk of double cropping rice will descend sharply, it can be promote to planting in most area.
引文
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[3]於利,曹明奎,李克让.全球气候变化背景下生态系统的脆弱性评价[J].地理科学进展.2005,24(1):61-69.
[4] IPCC.Climate Change 2001:Impacts,Adaptation and Vulnerability.Third assessment report of Working GroupⅡ.eds.Cambridge,UK:Cambridge University Press.2001.
[5]薛昌颖,霍治国,李世奎,等.华北北部冬小麦干旱和产量灾损的风险评估[J].自然灾害学报,2003,12(1):131-139.
[6]马建华,千怀遂,管华,等.秦岭黄淮平原交界自然地理若干特征分析[J].地理科学,2004,24(6):666-743.
[7]杨建平,丁永建,陈任升,等.亚洲季风与中国干湿、农牧气候界线之关系[J].地理科学,2005,25(4):441-447.
[8]刘新立.区域水灾风险评估的理论与实践[M].北京:北京大学出版社,2005.
[9]侯向阳.北亚热带过渡带的变迁及其农业景观生态意义[J].中国农史,2000,19(2):86-92.
[10]姜会飞,霍治国,潘学标,等.中国小麦生产的区域比较气候风险研究[J].自然灾害学报,2006,15(3):58-65.
[11] Svirezhev,Yu.M.etal.Climate Impact on Social System:the Risk Assessment Approac- h.Environment Modeling and Assessment[J],1999,(4):287-294.
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