金融危机背景下欧洲央行应对措施与效果评价
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摘要
自从凯恩斯革命以来,货币政策成为调控宏观经济的主要手段之一,扩张的货币政策是各国央行应对经济衰退的惯用政策,但利用货币政策来治理由金融危机导致的经济衰退的有效性仍存在争论。2007年美国次贷危机导致金融危机全面爆发以来,各主要经济体纷纷调整货币政策以应对金融危机。
欧洲央行成立于1999年,它的主要职责是保持物价稳定,为欧洲经济发展提供良好环境。作为一个超国家的中央银行,欧洲央行面对更加复杂的经济信息,针对金融危机的不同阶段采取了包括注资银行系统、降低基准利率、增强信贷供给、支持担保债券市场以及证券市场计划等有力措施。货币政策治理金融危机是否有效?欧洲央行应对金融危机措施实施效果如何?欧洲央行在应对本次金融危机中存在哪些不足?本文对上述问题进行了初步的研究。
本文通过对2007年以来欧洲央行采取的措施对金融市场和实体经济各项相关指标的影响进行分析,并对此期间基准利率和货币供给增加与经济增长之间的关系进行实证检验,得出以下结论：
在全球金融危机的背景下,欧洲央行采取的廉价货币政策和量化宽松的政策是有效的,对欧洲金融市场的稳定和实体经济的复苏起到了积极作用。具体来讲,在次贷危机期间,欧洲央行迅速注资银行部门,稳定了货币市场；在金融危机全面爆发阶段,欧洲央行采取降低利率和强化信贷供给政策,成功地减缓信贷收缩,并在稳定担保债券市场方面发挥了明显作用；主权债务危机阶段,欧洲央行采取了证券市场计划,虽起到暂时稳定成员国国债利率的作用,但无助于消除欧元区内部失衡和成员国财政收支失衡这一问题根源。本文利用VAR模型实证检验结果显示金融危机期间欧元区的基准利率和货币供给量与经济增长之间具有较强的相关性,这表明欧洲央行采取降低基准利率和量化宽松的货币政策对经济增长起到了积极作用。
欧洲央行应对金融危机的过程中也存在不足：首先,当欧洲央行面临通胀压力和金融市场混乱之间两难选择时,其非常规操作的引入和退出时机选择值得商榷。其次,欧洲央行作为超国家中央银行,暴露了其体制上的固有弱点。本文针对上述问题提出改进建议,包括加强金融系统风险预警、加强与成员国中央银行之间合作、引入成员国债务内部评级以及统一的金融监管等。最后,在前文基础上对我国央行应对金融危机的货币政策进行了思考。
Since Keynesian revolution, monetary policy has become one of the most important measures for macroeconomic regulation, in which expanded policy is quite a common method in the circumstance of economic recession. However, there is some argues about whether expanded monetary policy is an effective way for the recessions caused by financial crisis. After subprime crisis in 2007, almost every economy adjusted its monetary policy in order to relieve the negative impacts of this crisis.
ECB, whose primary aim is stabilizing prices, has provided a pretty well environment for the development of European economics. In the past 12 years, euro zone witnessed an increased economic scale as well as an enhanced international status. As a supranational central bank, ECB is facing a more complicated circumstance than others. During this financial crisis, ECB has implemented different measures, such as funding bank system, decreasing Key interest rate, enhancing credit supports and supporting Covered bond markets, to response to different market environments.
This paper focus on the evaluation of ECB's performance and effects of its policy measures in this crisis, as well as the effectiveness of monetary policy in financial crisis. After bundles of theoretical analysis and empirical tests, this paper concludes that under the background of global financial crisis, ECB's cheap and quantitative easing monetary policy is effective and has some positive influence on the stabilizing of European financial market and recovery of its real economy. Generally speaking, some measures, such as funding banking sectors, slowing down credit shrinking and stabilizing bond markets are obviously in effect.
However, in the respect of coping with sovereign debt crisis, current measures can only help stable the bond interest rates of member countries, and the deeper factors, which include the imbalance of internal economy and fiscal expenses in member countries will exist in a relative long terms. Of course, there are still some problems in the process of crisis response. Firstly, ECB falls into a dilemma between stabilizing prices and enhancing economic growth. Secondly, there are some institutional defects in ECB. According to these problems, this paper also gives some advices for improvement, as well as some inspirations for China's central bank.
欧洲央行成立于1999年,它的主要职责是保持物价稳定,为欧洲经济发展提供良好环境。作为一个超国家的中央银行,欧洲央行面对更加复杂的经济信息,针对金融危机的不同阶段采取了包括注资银行系统、降低基准利率、增强信贷供给、支持担保债券市场以及证券市场计划等有力措施。货币政策治理金融危机是否有效?欧洲央行应对金融危机措施实施效果如何?欧洲央行在应对本次金融危机中存在哪些不足?本文对上述问题进行了初步的研究。
本文通过对2007年以来欧洲央行采取的措施对金融市场和实体经济各项相关指标的影响进行分析,并对此期间基准利率和货币供给增加与经济增长之间的关系进行实证检验,得出以下结论：
在全球金融危机的背景下,欧洲央行采取的廉价货币政策和量化宽松的政策是有效的,对欧洲金融市场的稳定和实体经济的复苏起到了积极作用。具体来讲,在次贷危机期间,欧洲央行迅速注资银行部门,稳定了货币市场；在金融危机全面爆发阶段,欧洲央行采取降低利率和强化信贷供给政策,成功地减缓信贷收缩,并在稳定担保债券市场方面发挥了明显作用；主权债务危机阶段,欧洲央行采取了证券市场计划,虽起到暂时稳定成员国国债利率的作用,但无助于消除欧元区内部失衡和成员国财政收支失衡这一问题根源。本文利用VAR模型实证检验结果显示金融危机期间欧元区的基准利率和货币供给量与经济增长之间具有较强的相关性,这表明欧洲央行采取降低基准利率和量化宽松的货币政策对经济增长起到了积极作用。
欧洲央行应对金融危机的过程中也存在不足：首先,当欧洲央行面临通胀压力和金融市场混乱之间两难选择时,其非常规操作的引入和退出时机选择值得商榷。其次,欧洲央行作为超国家中央银行,暴露了其体制上的固有弱点。本文针对上述问题提出改进建议,包括加强金融系统风险预警、加强与成员国中央银行之间合作、引入成员国债务内部评级以及统一的金融监管等。最后,在前文基础上对我国央行应对金融危机的货币政策进行了思考。
Since Keynesian revolution, monetary policy has become one of the most important measures for macroeconomic regulation, in which expanded policy is quite a common method in the circumstance of economic recession. However, there is some argues about whether expanded monetary policy is an effective way for the recessions caused by financial crisis. After subprime crisis in 2007, almost every economy adjusted its monetary policy in order to relieve the negative impacts of this crisis.
ECB, whose primary aim is stabilizing prices, has provided a pretty well environment for the development of European economics. In the past 12 years, euro zone witnessed an increased economic scale as well as an enhanced international status. As a supranational central bank, ECB is facing a more complicated circumstance than others. During this financial crisis, ECB has implemented different measures, such as funding bank system, decreasing Key interest rate, enhancing credit supports and supporting Covered bond markets, to response to different market environments.
This paper focus on the evaluation of ECB's performance and effects of its policy measures in this crisis, as well as the effectiveness of monetary policy in financial crisis. After bundles of theoretical analysis and empirical tests, this paper concludes that under the background of global financial crisis, ECB's cheap and quantitative easing monetary policy is effective and has some positive influence on the stabilizing of European financial market and recovery of its real economy. Generally speaking, some measures, such as funding banking sectors, slowing down credit shrinking and stabilizing bond markets are obviously in effect.
However, in the respect of coping with sovereign debt crisis, current measures can only help stable the bond interest rates of member countries, and the deeper factors, which include the imbalance of internal economy and fiscal expenses in member countries will exist in a relative long terms. Of course, there are still some problems in the process of crisis response. Firstly, ECB falls into a dilemma between stabilizing prices and enhancing economic growth. Secondly, there are some institutional defects in ECB. According to these problems, this paper also gives some advices for improvement, as well as some inspirations for China's central bank.
引文
1 Ben Bernake, "Nonmonetary Effects of the Financial Crisis in the Propagation the Great Depression ", America Economic Review 73(1983)
2 CLAUSEN V HAYO B, Monetary policy in the Euro area---Iessons from the first years[J], International Economics and Economic Policy 2005,(1).
3 AGNOR P,R MONTIEL, Monetary Policy Analysis in a Small Open Credit-Based Economy[J]. Open Econ Rev,2008, (19)
4巴曙松,中国货币政策有效性经济学分析[M],经济科学出版社,2000
5丁纯,金融危机冲击下的欧洲经济：表现、成因和前景[J],《欧洲研究》2010
6数据来源Eurostat (http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat)
7数据来源Eurostat (http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat)
8丁纯,金融危机中欧盟典型国家的表现和成因分析[J],学术交流,2010,7
9丁纯,金融危机冲击下的欧洲经济：表现、成因和前景[J],《欧洲研究》2010
10丁纯,金融危机冲击下的欧洲经济：表现、成因和前景[J]，《欧洲研究》2010
11 Monthly Bulletin 2009.5, ECB(www.ecb.int)
12 http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/eu borrower/greek_loan_facility/index_en.htm
13 Official Journal of the European Union,2010,5,20, ECB
14 Almunia, Joaquin. Fehlende Koordinierung[J]. Wirtscha Ftwpche,2009,(30)
15指银行愿意为互换协议持续期间接受欧元平均隔夜利率所付的因定利率,它反映了与隔夜利率相同的信用和流动性溢价。
16 Euro money market study,2010.10, ECB
17 Euro money market study,2010.10, ECB
18欧元担保债券指数(iBoxx Euro Covered index)是关于欧元担保债券组合和相同期限利率互换收益率之间的差额,非担保银行高级债券指数(iBoox Euro Bank Senior index)是非担保银行债券和相同期限利率互换收益率之间的差额。
19 "Covered bond market developments and the covered bond purchase programme", Monthly Bulletin, ECB, August 2010.
20 Final monthly report on the Eurosystem's Covered bond Purchase programme,2010.6, ECB
21指2005.1-2007.6期间参与欧洲央行主导再融资操作参与方的平均数目,Monthly Bulletin 2010.10, ECB
22刘丽荣,《金融危机与欧洲央行的对策研究》[J]，同济大学学报,2011(2)
23 Annual Account of ECB,2010
24数据均来自于欧洲央行网站www.ecb.int
25 Lessons from the crisis, Jean-Claude Trichet, Paris,2010.12.3
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2 CLAUSEN V HAYO B, Monetary policy in the Euro area---Iessons from the first years[J], International Economics and Economic Policy 2005,(1).
3 AGNOR P,R MONTIEL, Monetary Policy Analysis in a Small Open Credit-Based Economy[J]. Open Econ Rev,2008, (19)
4巴曙松,中国货币政策有效性经济学分析[M],经济科学出版社,2000
5丁纯,金融危机冲击下的欧洲经济：表现、成因和前景[J],《欧洲研究》2010
6数据来源Eurostat (http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat)
7数据来源Eurostat (http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat)
8丁纯,金融危机中欧盟典型国家的表现和成因分析[J],学术交流,2010,7
9丁纯,金融危机冲击下的欧洲经济：表现、成因和前景[J],《欧洲研究》2010
10丁纯,金融危机冲击下的欧洲经济：表现、成因和前景[J]，《欧洲研究》2010
11 Monthly Bulletin 2009.5, ECB(www.ecb.int)
12 http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/eu borrower/greek_loan_facility/index_en.htm
13 Official Journal of the European Union,2010,5,20, ECB
14 Almunia, Joaquin. Fehlende Koordinierung[J]. Wirtscha Ftwpche,2009,(30)
15指银行愿意为互换协议持续期间接受欧元平均隔夜利率所付的因定利率,它反映了与隔夜利率相同的信用和流动性溢价。
16 Euro money market study,2010.10, ECB
17 Euro money market study,2010.10, ECB
18欧元担保债券指数(iBoxx Euro Covered index)是关于欧元担保债券组合和相同期限利率互换收益率之间的差额,非担保银行高级债券指数(iBoox Euro Bank Senior index)是非担保银行债券和相同期限利率互换收益率之间的差额。
19 "Covered bond market developments and the covered bond purchase programme", Monthly Bulletin, ECB, August 2010.
20 Final monthly report on the Eurosystem's Covered bond Purchase programme,2010.6, ECB
21指2005.1-2007.6期间参与欧洲央行主导再融资操作参与方的平均数目,Monthly Bulletin 2010.10, ECB
22刘丽荣,《金融危机与欧洲央行的对策研究》[J]，同济大学学报,2011(2)
23 Annual Account of ECB,2010
24数据均来自于欧洲央行网站www.ecb.int
25 Lessons from the crisis, Jean-Claude Trichet, Paris,2010.12.3
[1]Axel A. Weber, Rafael Gerke and Andreas Worms, "Change in euro monetary transmission?"[J], Applied Financial Economics,2011,21,131-145
[2]Annual Report 2009, ECB
[3]Andre Fourcans, Radu Vranceanu, "The ECB monetary policy:Choices and challenges"[J], Journal of Policy Modeling,2007(29)
[4]Bernanke, Ben S. and Ilian Mihov (1995), "Measuring Monetary Policy," NBER Working PaperNo.5145, June.
[5]Bernanke, Ben and Alan Blinder [1992]. "The Federal Funds Rate and the Channels of Monetary Transmission," American Economic Review 82,901-921.
[6]Bernanke Ben S., "Credit in the Macroeconomy", Federal Reverse Bank of New York Quarterly Review, Vol.18,50-70
[7]Borio.C.E.V(1995), "The structure of credit to the non-government sector and the transmission mechanism of monetary policy:a cross country comparison", BIS Working paper No.24
[8]Berumentmh,Togay S,Sahin A. Identifying the Liquidity Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks for a Small Open Economy:Turkey[J]. Open Econ Rev 2003.
[9]Barry Eichengreen, "Europe, the euro and the ECB:Monetary success, fiscal failure"[J], Journal of Policy Modeling,2005(27)477-439
[10]Carlo Cottarelli and Angeliki Kourelis," Financial Structure, Bank Lending Rates, and the Transmission Mechanism of monetary policy", IMF Staff papers Vol.41, NO.4
[11]Clausen V, Hayo B, "Monetary policy in the Euro area---lessons from the first years"[J],International Economics and Economic Policy,2005,(1):349-64.
[12]Caporale T, Mckiernan B. Monetary Policy Shocks and Interest Rates:Further Evidence on the Liquidity Effect[J]. Review of World Economics,2005,135(2).
[13]"Euro Money Market Study", ECB,2010.12
[14]Eric M. Leeper, Christopher A. Sims, and Tao Zha, What Does Monetary Policy Do?, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity.1996:2
[15]European Commission. Economic Crisis in Europe:Causes, Consequences and Responses [Z]
[16]European Commission. The EU's response to support the real economy during the economic crisis:an overview o f Member States'recovery measures[Z]
[17]"European Economic Forecast-2010 Autumn ", ECB,2010.7
[18]Friedman, Benjamin F. and Kenneth N. Kuttner [1992], "Money, Income, Prices, and Interest Rates," American Economic Review 82, June,472-92.
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