东亚货币一体化
摘要
1961年,围绕固定汇率制与浮动汇率制的争论,蒙代尔提出了最优货币区理论,并因其对国际经济学的卓越贡献而成为1999年度诺贝尔经济学奖获得者。此后数十年来,大量学者对该理论进行了持续的完善与更新,有力地指导了世界各地区的货币合作实践。其中,最有影响力的就是1999年1月1日欧元的成功问世。
1997年和2008年的两次金融危机为东亚货币合作提供了背景和动力,2000年《清迈倡议》的签订更是东亚货币合作进程中的一座里程碑,为实现进一步的货币合作铺开道路。在东亚摸索货币一体化道路的进程中,欧元区的建立有着显著的借鉴意义。于是,本文在吸取欧盟货币一体化实践经验和教训的基础上,以最优货币区理论作为切入点分五章分析东亚货币一体化：
文章首先阐述了选题背景和意义,并对国内外关于货币一体化的文献进行了介绍,明确了论文的研究思路与方法。
其次回顾了区域货币一体化的理论支持——最优货币区理论的产生与发展过程,并结合欧洲和拉美货币合作的实践提出了区域货币一体化的三种主要路径选择,同时分析了东亚当前的合适路径。
然后具体描述了东亚货币一体化取得的成就,并总结出了该地区在货币合作进程中面临的三大困难。
再次以OCA理论的判断标准分析东亚各经济体是否具备组建单一货币区的条件,在量化分析的基础上以加入货币区的成本收益分析作为组建货币联盟的充分条件,从而得出东亚建立货币区的必然性。
最后根据前面的分析结果指出东亚货币一体化是一个层次性的渐进过程,先进行次区域的合作,待条件成熟再组建真正意义上的单一货币区。
通过以上章节的分析,本文得到的观点如下：
1.按照1979年欧洲货币成立时具备的条件,东亚目前建立货币联盟的可能性很大,而且从1997年至今,已经取得了一系列成绩。但该地区的货币合作仍处于初级阶段,还没有一个成型的货币合作机制,地区性的汇率协调方案是当前东亚货币合作的重点。
2.虽然东亚整体合作仅取得一些阶段性的初级成果,但次区域间的合作频繁且符合单一货币区的建立条件,因此东亚适宜采用多重货币联盟的路径,即先形成次区域货币区,然后这些次区域货币区之间加强融合,最后过渡到东亚单一货币区。
3.东亚的一体化进程应该从2009年欧洲主权债务危机中吸取教训,《稳定与增长公约》中的规定是否符合每个成员国的利益,如何处理好成员国之间经济发展目标不一致的问题,在货币政策让渡后如何充分发挥财政政策的作用而不损害其他成员国利益,诸多此类问题都是需要反思的。
In 1961, Mundell first put forward the theory of Optimum Currency Area (OCA) with the argument of fixed exchange rate and flexible exchange rate. Due to the outstanding contribution to international economics of OCA theory, he was the winner of 1999's Nobel Prize in Economics. In the following several decades, a large number of scholars developed the theory continuously and strongly put it into practice of monetary integration all over the world. The successful creating of Euro in 1st January, 1991 is the most influential example of the practice.
The eruption of 1997 and 2008 financial crisis provided the background and motivation for East Asian monetary integration. Chiang Mai Initiative was signed in 2000, which was a milestone in the process of monetary integration and paved the road of further monetary cooperation in East Asia. The establishment of Euro was a significant guide for East Asia. On the base of experience and lesson from European monetary integration, the paper analyses East Asian's monetary integration in five parts with the OCA theory.
Firstly, I elaborate the background and meaning of the paper and introduce related literature of monetary integration around the world.
Secondly, after the review of the development of OCA theory, which was the theory of regional monetary integration, three main forms of currency union are put forward with the practice in Europe and Latin America. Simultaneously, the current integration method adopted by East Asia is discussed, namely a multiple-currency union.
Thirdly I describe the achievements and three obstacles of East Asian monetary integration in detail.
Fourthly, this paper discusses the feasibility of establishing a single currency union in East Asia by OCA theory judge criteria. On the basis of numerical analysis, this paper then compares the costs and benefits of joining in the currency union, and comes to the conclusion that it is natural of establishing a currency union within East Asia.
Finally, according to the results of the previous chapter I consider monetary integration in East Asia is a hierarchical and gradual process. We can make some cooperation between second-level regional scopes and extend these second-level areas to a real single currency area when the conditions are mature.
The main viewpoints and conclusions of the paper are as follows:
Compared with the situation of EMS in 1979 it is likely to establish a currency union in East Asia. It has made some profound achievements since 1997. However, with respect to the whole phrases of monetary integration, East Asia is still at the tentative level which lacks a mature monetary mechanism. The coordination of regional exchange rate is the focus in East Asian monetary cooperation.
Although East Asian monetary integration has not made much process in the whole region, the second-level regions cooperate frequently and satisfy the qualification of a single currency union, so the feasible pathway might be a multi-currency union in East Asia.
It is critical for all countries to learn lesson from European Sovereign Debt Crisis. Whether the provisions in the Pact of Stability and Growth are consistent with the interests of each member, how to handle the problem of inconsistent economic targets among all members, as well as how to make full use of fiscal policy after giving away the right of drawing up monetary policy, not being to the prejudice of others in the region is the concern.
1997年和2008年的两次金融危机为东亚货币合作提供了背景和动力,2000年《清迈倡议》的签订更是东亚货币合作进程中的一座里程碑,为实现进一步的货币合作铺开道路。在东亚摸索货币一体化道路的进程中,欧元区的建立有着显著的借鉴意义。于是,本文在吸取欧盟货币一体化实践经验和教训的基础上,以最优货币区理论作为切入点分五章分析东亚货币一体化：
文章首先阐述了选题背景和意义,并对国内外关于货币一体化的文献进行了介绍,明确了论文的研究思路与方法。
其次回顾了区域货币一体化的理论支持——最优货币区理论的产生与发展过程,并结合欧洲和拉美货币合作的实践提出了区域货币一体化的三种主要路径选择,同时分析了东亚当前的合适路径。
然后具体描述了东亚货币一体化取得的成就,并总结出了该地区在货币合作进程中面临的三大困难。
再次以OCA理论的判断标准分析东亚各经济体是否具备组建单一货币区的条件,在量化分析的基础上以加入货币区的成本收益分析作为组建货币联盟的充分条件,从而得出东亚建立货币区的必然性。
最后根据前面的分析结果指出东亚货币一体化是一个层次性的渐进过程,先进行次区域的合作,待条件成熟再组建真正意义上的单一货币区。
通过以上章节的分析,本文得到的观点如下：
1.按照1979年欧洲货币成立时具备的条件,东亚目前建立货币联盟的可能性很大,而且从1997年至今,已经取得了一系列成绩。但该地区的货币合作仍处于初级阶段,还没有一个成型的货币合作机制,地区性的汇率协调方案是当前东亚货币合作的重点。
2.虽然东亚整体合作仅取得一些阶段性的初级成果,但次区域间的合作频繁且符合单一货币区的建立条件,因此东亚适宜采用多重货币联盟的路径,即先形成次区域货币区,然后这些次区域货币区之间加强融合,最后过渡到东亚单一货币区。
3.东亚的一体化进程应该从2009年欧洲主权债务危机中吸取教训,《稳定与增长公约》中的规定是否符合每个成员国的利益,如何处理好成员国之间经济发展目标不一致的问题,在货币政策让渡后如何充分发挥财政政策的作用而不损害其他成员国利益,诸多此类问题都是需要反思的。
In 1961, Mundell first put forward the theory of Optimum Currency Area (OCA) with the argument of fixed exchange rate and flexible exchange rate. Due to the outstanding contribution to international economics of OCA theory, he was the winner of 1999's Nobel Prize in Economics. In the following several decades, a large number of scholars developed the theory continuously and strongly put it into practice of monetary integration all over the world. The successful creating of Euro in 1st January, 1991 is the most influential example of the practice.
The eruption of 1997 and 2008 financial crisis provided the background and motivation for East Asian monetary integration. Chiang Mai Initiative was signed in 2000, which was a milestone in the process of monetary integration and paved the road of further monetary cooperation in East Asia. The establishment of Euro was a significant guide for East Asia. On the base of experience and lesson from European monetary integration, the paper analyses East Asian's monetary integration in five parts with the OCA theory.
Firstly, I elaborate the background and meaning of the paper and introduce related literature of monetary integration around the world.
Secondly, after the review of the development of OCA theory, which was the theory of regional monetary integration, three main forms of currency union are put forward with the practice in Europe and Latin America. Simultaneously, the current integration method adopted by East Asia is discussed, namely a multiple-currency union.
Thirdly I describe the achievements and three obstacles of East Asian monetary integration in detail.
Fourthly, this paper discusses the feasibility of establishing a single currency union in East Asia by OCA theory judge criteria. On the basis of numerical analysis, this paper then compares the costs and benefits of joining in the currency union, and comes to the conclusion that it is natural of establishing a currency union within East Asia.
Finally, according to the results of the previous chapter I consider monetary integration in East Asia is a hierarchical and gradual process. We can make some cooperation between second-level regional scopes and extend these second-level areas to a real single currency area when the conditions are mature.
The main viewpoints and conclusions of the paper are as follows:
Compared with the situation of EMS in 1979 it is likely to establish a currency union in East Asia. It has made some profound achievements since 1997. However, with respect to the whole phrases of monetary integration, East Asia is still at the tentative level which lacks a mature monetary mechanism. The coordination of regional exchange rate is the focus in East Asian monetary cooperation.
Although East Asian monetary integration has not made much process in the whole region, the second-level regions cooperate frequently and satisfy the qualification of a single currency union, so the feasible pathway might be a multi-currency union in East Asia.
It is critical for all countries to learn lesson from European Sovereign Debt Crisis. Whether the provisions in the Pact of Stability and Growth are consistent with the interests of each member, how to handle the problem of inconsistent economic targets among all members, as well as how to make full use of fiscal policy after giving away the right of drawing up monetary policy, not being to the prejudice of others in the region is the concern.
引文
1伊特韦尔等.新帕尔格雷夫经济学大辞典.北京：经济科学出版社,1992
1吴品懿.从最优货币区理论看东亚货币一体化.厦门大学硕士学位论文,2006：37
2 Jeffery, Lewis. Asian vs. International:Structuring an Asian Monetary Fund. Asian Quarterly,1999,Vol 3:4
1钟伟.无人负责亚洲.中国改革,2002,2：17
1万志宏.东亚货币合作的经济基础研究.北京：中国商务出版社,2004：59-60
1万志宏.东亚货币合作的经济基础研究.北京：中国商务出版社,2004：60
1徐明棋.最优货币区理论：能否解释东亚货币合作?世界经济研究,2003,10：66
1李翀.我国对外开放程度的度量与比较.经济研究,1998,1：26-29
1朱孟楠,陈淼鑫.最优货币区理论及东亚单一货币区的构想.亚太经济,2001,6：14
2吴品懿.从最优货币区理论看东亚货币一体化.厦门大学硕士学位论文,2006：28
1陈喆.东亚货币合作与中国的战略研究.浙江大学硕士学位论文,2002
1何慧刚.最优货币区理论与东亚货币合作问题研究.北京：中国财政经济出版社,2005,1：279
1何慧刚.最优货币区理论与东亚货币合作问题研究.北京：中国财政经济出版社,2005,1：282
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[18]吴晓霞.东亚货币合作研究,吉林大学博士学位论文,2009
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1吴品懿.从最优货币区理论看东亚货币一体化.厦门大学硕士学位论文,2006：37
2 Jeffery, Lewis. Asian vs. International:Structuring an Asian Monetary Fund. Asian Quarterly,1999,Vol 3:4
1钟伟.无人负责亚洲.中国改革,2002,2：17
1万志宏.东亚货币合作的经济基础研究.北京：中国商务出版社,2004：59-60
1万志宏.东亚货币合作的经济基础研究.北京：中国商务出版社,2004：60
1徐明棋.最优货币区理论：能否解释东亚货币合作?世界经济研究,2003,10：66
1李翀.我国对外开放程度的度量与比较.经济研究,1998,1：26-29
1朱孟楠,陈淼鑫.最优货币区理论及东亚单一货币区的构想.亚太经济,2001,6：14
2吴品懿.从最优货币区理论看东亚货币一体化.厦门大学硕士学位论文,2006：28
1陈喆.东亚货币合作与中国的战略研究.浙江大学硕士学位论文,2002
1何慧刚.最优货币区理论与东亚货币合作问题研究.北京：中国财政经济出版社,2005,1：279
1何慧刚.最优货币区理论与东亚货币合作问题研究.北京：中国财政经济出版社,2005,1：282
[1]陈喆.东亚货币合作与中国的战略研究.浙江大学硕士学位论文,2002
[2]刁幕蓉,程永锋.东亚区域货币一体化的可行性与前景研究.亚太经济,2004,6：9-11
[3]戴金平,熊性美.东亚货币合作的阶段确定与形态选择.南开经济研究,2001,4：23-29
[4]戴金平,万志宏.东亚地区货币金融合作的经济基础研究.云南大学学报(社会科学版),2005,2：74-96
[5]戴金平,万志宏.APEC的货币金融合作——经济与政治分析.天津：南开大学出版社,2005
[6]何帆,覃东海.东亚建立货币联盟的成本与收益分析.世界经济,2005,1：3-16,80
[7]何帆.危机之后的亚洲货币合作.国际经济评论,2001,1-2：23-26
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