欠发达地区资源消耗、环境污染与经济发展耦合关系比较研究
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摘要
随着经济发展水平的提高,经济活动对自然界的干扰强度也在不断加强,随之而来的是世界范围内的资源短缺、环境污染和生态破坏问题的不断加剧。在此背景之下,人类越来越关注经济发展过程中产生的各种资源与环境问题,经济发展与环境关系的研究也逐渐成为了学术界的研究热点。现有研究得出的一致结论是：传统的线性发展模式造成了今天环境资源问题不断加剧的形势,但对两者之间的关系曲线、曲线的演变趋势及其原因,学术界还存在很大争议。欠发达地区经济发展水平低下,目前正处于工业化和城市化的前期或者中期阶段,且经济发展方式粗放,生态环境较为脆弱,面临着经济发展与资源节约和环境保护的双重压力。因此,欠发达地区经济发展与环境关系的研究对于该地区转变经济发展模式、制定可持续发展政策具有一定的理论和实践意义。
本研究以地处西北欠发达地区的甘肃中部(兰州、白银、临夏、定西和甘南)为研究区域,首先,对各研究区经济发展与资源消耗、环境污染之间在时间尺度上的耦合路径进行分析,阐释了前者与后两者之间的耦合机制；并通过对各地区耦合关系进行横向空间比较,揭示了耦合关系的空间分异特点。第二,通过比较各地区传统全要素生产率、仅考虑自然资源和综合考虑环境资源要素条件下的全要素生产率的变化情况,定量分析了资源投入和环境污染要素对经济产出效率的影响程度。第三,对影响研究区资源消耗和环境污染的重要社会经济驱动力因素进行辨识,并定量分析了这些因素的影响程度。最后,在以上实证分析的基础上,提出了研究区资源-环境-经济耦合系统实现可持续发展的政策建议。本研究的具体工作内容总结如下：
(1)本研究利用Johansen协整检验模型,分别验证分析了各研究区能源消耗-空气污染-经济发展、水资源消耗-水污染-经济发展和环境负荷-环境污染-经济发展变量系统中各指标变量之间是否存在长期稳定的均衡关系。在此基础上,运用广义脉冲响应模型和广义预测方差分解模型,分析了经济发展与能源消耗和空气污染、经济发展与水资源消耗和水污染以及经济发展与环境总负荷和环境总污染之间的冲击响应关系轨迹,研究阐释了耦合作用机制。并通过对不同研究区的耦合作用关系进行空间横向比较,总结了耦合作用关系的空间分异特征。
(2)基于DEA的Malmquist指数分析模型,通过比较全要素生产率在不同条件下(传统经济学分析框架、仅考虑自然资源投入条件下和综合考虑资源投入和环境污染条件下)的变化情况,定量分析自然资源(能源投入、水资源投入和总资源投入)投入和环境污染(空气污染、水污染和总环境污染)要素对经济系统产出效率的影响程度。
(3)利用STIRPAT模型,采用偏最小二乘法,对各研究区资源消耗、环境污染变化的重要社会经济驱动力要素进行辨识,并分析了各驱动力要素对资源消耗和环境污染的影响程度。
(4)基于以上实证分析结论,提出了研究区实现可持续发展的政策建议。
As the economy develops, the worldwide problems of resource shortage, environmental pollution and ecological degradation are getting worse due to the increasing disturbance of economic activities on natural system. In this context, human concerns about various environmental problems during the economic process. So the studies on the relationship between economic development and resource consumption, environmental pollution became the focus of related scientific fields. Current studies agree that the traditional "linear model of economic production" leads to the present situation of aggravating resource and environmental problems, but as to the relationship-curve, evolution of relationship and its driving factors, there are many controversial views. With a low level of economic development, an extensive economic development mode and fragile environment, under-developed area, which is at the early or medium stage of industrialization and urbanization, faces the dual pressure of economic development and environmental protection. Therefore, the studies on economic development and environment have profound practical and theoretical significance for under-developed area in switching the economic development model and making sustainable development policy.
This thesis takes the Central Gansu province (includes Lanzhou City, Baiyin City, Linxai Hui Autonomous Prefecture, Dingxi City, and Ganan Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture), an under-developed area in Northwest of China, as the research area. First, the thesis analyzed the temporal coupling path between resource consumption, environmental pollution and economic development, to elucidate the coupling mechanism. Then the characters of spatial distribution of the coupled relationship have been unveiled by comparing the coupled relationship in different research area. Secondly, the thesis evaluated the impacts of resource input and environmental pollution factors on the economic efficiency by comparing the variation of Total Factor Productivity (TFP) under the different conditions. Third, the main social-economic driving factors of resource consumption and environmental pollution have been identified, and the impacts of driving factors have been evaluated as well. At the end of the thesis, based on the previous analytical results, the policies for sustainable development of coupled resource-environmental-economic system have been proposed. The content of this thesis are summarized as following:
(1) The thesis applied Johansen co-integration test model to verify if there is a stable long-term equilibrium relationship between the indicator of resource consumption, environmental pollution and economic development in various variable system which includes Energy-Environmental-Economic, Water-Environmental-Economic, and Environmental Load-Environmental Pollution-Economic variable system. Subsequently, by adopting Generalized Impulse Response and Variance Decomposition model, the thesis respectively analyzed the two-way impulse-response relationship between energy consumption, air pollution and economic development; water consumption, water pollution and economic development; total resource consumption, total pollution and economic development. Then the characters of spatial distribution of the coupled relationship have been unveiled by comparing the coupled relationship in various research areas.
(2) Using the DEA-Malmquist index model, the thesis evaluated the impacts of natural resource input (energy, water and total inputs) on economic efficiency through comparing variation of Total Factor Productivity (TFP) under different conditions.
(3) The thesis applied STIRPAT and partial Least Square (PLS) to indentify the main social-economic driving factors which influent resource consumption and environmental pollution significantly in research area. And the impacts of the driving factors on resource consumption and environmental pollution have been evaluated subsequently.
(4) Based on the previous analytical results, the thesis proposed some policy suggestions for sustainable development of coupled resource, environmental, economic system in central Gansu Province.
本研究以地处西北欠发达地区的甘肃中部(兰州、白银、临夏、定西和甘南)为研究区域,首先,对各研究区经济发展与资源消耗、环境污染之间在时间尺度上的耦合路径进行分析,阐释了前者与后两者之间的耦合机制；并通过对各地区耦合关系进行横向空间比较,揭示了耦合关系的空间分异特点。第二,通过比较各地区传统全要素生产率、仅考虑自然资源和综合考虑环境资源要素条件下的全要素生产率的变化情况,定量分析了资源投入和环境污染要素对经济产出效率的影响程度。第三,对影响研究区资源消耗和环境污染的重要社会经济驱动力因素进行辨识,并定量分析了这些因素的影响程度。最后,在以上实证分析的基础上,提出了研究区资源-环境-经济耦合系统实现可持续发展的政策建议。本研究的具体工作内容总结如下：
(1)本研究利用Johansen协整检验模型,分别验证分析了各研究区能源消耗-空气污染-经济发展、水资源消耗-水污染-经济发展和环境负荷-环境污染-经济发展变量系统中各指标变量之间是否存在长期稳定的均衡关系。在此基础上,运用广义脉冲响应模型和广义预测方差分解模型,分析了经济发展与能源消耗和空气污染、经济发展与水资源消耗和水污染以及经济发展与环境总负荷和环境总污染之间的冲击响应关系轨迹,研究阐释了耦合作用机制。并通过对不同研究区的耦合作用关系进行空间横向比较,总结了耦合作用关系的空间分异特征。
(2)基于DEA的Malmquist指数分析模型,通过比较全要素生产率在不同条件下(传统经济学分析框架、仅考虑自然资源投入条件下和综合考虑资源投入和环境污染条件下)的变化情况,定量分析自然资源(能源投入、水资源投入和总资源投入)投入和环境污染(空气污染、水污染和总环境污染)要素对经济系统产出效率的影响程度。
(3)利用STIRPAT模型,采用偏最小二乘法,对各研究区资源消耗、环境污染变化的重要社会经济驱动力要素进行辨识,并分析了各驱动力要素对资源消耗和环境污染的影响程度。
(4)基于以上实证分析结论,提出了研究区实现可持续发展的政策建议。
As the economy develops, the worldwide problems of resource shortage, environmental pollution and ecological degradation are getting worse due to the increasing disturbance of economic activities on natural system. In this context, human concerns about various environmental problems during the economic process. So the studies on the relationship between economic development and resource consumption, environmental pollution became the focus of related scientific fields. Current studies agree that the traditional "linear model of economic production" leads to the present situation of aggravating resource and environmental problems, but as to the relationship-curve, evolution of relationship and its driving factors, there are many controversial views. With a low level of economic development, an extensive economic development mode and fragile environment, under-developed area, which is at the early or medium stage of industrialization and urbanization, faces the dual pressure of economic development and environmental protection. Therefore, the studies on economic development and environment have profound practical and theoretical significance for under-developed area in switching the economic development model and making sustainable development policy.
This thesis takes the Central Gansu province (includes Lanzhou City, Baiyin City, Linxai Hui Autonomous Prefecture, Dingxi City, and Ganan Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture), an under-developed area in Northwest of China, as the research area. First, the thesis analyzed the temporal coupling path between resource consumption, environmental pollution and economic development, to elucidate the coupling mechanism. Then the characters of spatial distribution of the coupled relationship have been unveiled by comparing the coupled relationship in different research area. Secondly, the thesis evaluated the impacts of resource input and environmental pollution factors on the economic efficiency by comparing the variation of Total Factor Productivity (TFP) under the different conditions. Third, the main social-economic driving factors of resource consumption and environmental pollution have been identified, and the impacts of driving factors have been evaluated as well. At the end of the thesis, based on the previous analytical results, the policies for sustainable development of coupled resource-environmental-economic system have been proposed. The content of this thesis are summarized as following:
(1) The thesis applied Johansen co-integration test model to verify if there is a stable long-term equilibrium relationship between the indicator of resource consumption, environmental pollution and economic development in various variable system which includes Energy-Environmental-Economic, Water-Environmental-Economic, and Environmental Load-Environmental Pollution-Economic variable system. Subsequently, by adopting Generalized Impulse Response and Variance Decomposition model, the thesis respectively analyzed the two-way impulse-response relationship between energy consumption, air pollution and economic development; water consumption, water pollution and economic development; total resource consumption, total pollution and economic development. Then the characters of spatial distribution of the coupled relationship have been unveiled by comparing the coupled relationship in various research areas.
(2) Using the DEA-Malmquist index model, the thesis evaluated the impacts of natural resource input (energy, water and total inputs) on economic efficiency through comparing variation of Total Factor Productivity (TFP) under different conditions.
(3) The thesis applied STIRPAT and partial Least Square (PLS) to indentify the main social-economic driving factors which influent resource consumption and environmental pollution significantly in research area. And the impacts of the driving factors on resource consumption and environmental pollution have been evaluated subsequently.
(4) Based on the previous analytical results, the thesis proposed some policy suggestions for sustainable development of coupled resource, environmental, economic system in central Gansu Province.
引文
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