基于复杂网络的供应链建模与性能分析研究
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摘要
供应链是具有开放性、动态性和不确定性的复杂社会经济系统。长期以来,供应链建模和分析一直是该领域研究的重点和难点。复杂网络理论的出现为供应链建模和分析提供了一种全新的方法。复杂网络理论通过对大量复杂系统的实证研究,揭示其结构的统计特征,并研究这些特征的形成机制以及它们与系统行为之间的内在联系。本文利用复杂网络理论作为工具,对供应链建模和性能分析展开研究。本文首先提出了供应链的结构演化模型。在此基础上,针对供应链的两个重要行为,网络的鲁棒性以及合作行为的演化,从拓扑结构角度进行了分析。本文主要研究工作和创新点如下：
1、针对供应链的结构特征,本文提出了基于增长、偏好连接和局部选择的供应链演化模型；分析了模型的重要统计特性：网络的平均最短路径,聚类系数,度分布,结构的异质性以及度度相关性。仿真发现,模型具有小世界效应；模型的聚类系数很小,接近为零；模型结构是异质的,具有无标度特征；模型中,连接度小的节点倾向于选择度值大的节点,即模型是异配网络。这些统计特征与相关的研究结果以及实证研究是一致的,表明该模型能较好地描述供应链的拓扑结构。
2、基于演化模型,本文研究了供应链的网络鲁棒性。本文将鲁棒性进一步分为静态鲁棒性和动态鲁棒性。在静态研究中,为了模拟针对供应链的不同破坏,提出了四种模拟规则,即随机删除节点,目标删除节点,随机删除连接边和目标删除连接边。考虑到节点的能力约束,动态鲁棒性研究了因节点过载而引起的级联故障对供应链的破坏力。为了模拟故障的级联效应,首次提出了供应链的故障传播算法。研究发现,针对不同类型的破坏,供应链呈现出不同的鲁棒性能。故障传播机制的引入导致了系统对随机破坏和目标破坏都表现出极为脆弱的鲁棒性能。
3、研究了供应链的合作行为演化。在空间演化博弈框架下,研究了供应链的合作行为演化过程。针对实体间不同的利益关系,将两种不同类型的博弈模型,囚徒困境博弈和雪堆博弈应用于合作演化分析中。同时,根据实体策略的选择偏好和动态调整特点,提出了基于Fermi去则实体策略演化算法。研究发现,虽然两种博弈类型不同,其策略的纳什均衡也不一样,但都可以得到相同的结论：网络结构的异质性、外部竞争压力和策略收益都直接影响着最终网络的合作水平。提高结构的异质性以及增加外部竞争压力有助于提升网络的合作水平。
Supply chains are complex socio-economic systems. Due to their inherent complexity, dynamics as well as uncertainties, it is hard to model supply chains and analyze their performances efficiently. The emergence of the complex network theory provides a novel approach to explore supply chains. Complex networks theory concentrates on investigating the mechanisms, which determine the topological properties observed in numerous complex systems, and exploring the relevance between these topological properties and the system behaviors. The main aim of this dissertation is to model supply chains and analyze their behaviors based on complex network theory. A structural evolving model for supply chain is proposed. Then two important behaviors, i.e. robustness to supply disruption and cooperation behaviors are investigated from the perspective of topological strucutures. The main results and contributions of this dissertation are as follows.
1. Propose a structural evolving model, which focuses on the structural characteristics in supply chains. This model incorporates three mechanisms, i.e., growth, attachment preference and local selection. Then some important statistical properties of the model are explored, which include average path length, clustering coefficient, degree distribution, structural heterogeneity and degree correlation. The simulation results show that the model follows"small-world" effect and its clustering coefficient is extremely small; the model's structure is heterogeneous and its degree distribution follow power-law distribution; the model is disassortative network. These model's properties are consistent with previous works and empirical research, indicating that the model can well describe the structures in supply chain.
2. Based on the structural evolving model, the robustness of supply chains is explored. The robustness in this dissertation is further divided into two categories: static and dynamic robustness. In the static analysis, four rules are introduced to simulate the different damages to supply chain, which include randomly deleting nodes, intentionally deleting nodes, randomly deleting links and intentionally deleting links. Considering nodes'capacity constraints, the cascading failures resulting from nodes' overloading are investigated in the dynamic analysis. In order to imitate cascading failures, a failure propagation process is proposed. Results show that supply chains exhibit different robustness to different damages and the failures propagation can result in supply chains extremely fragile to supply disruption.
3. Based on the structural evolving model, supply chains'cooperation behavior is studied. The strategy evolution of entities in supply chains is explored in the framework of evolutionary game and then two different games, prisoner's dilemma game and snowdrift game, are respectively applied to the strategy evolution. The results indicate that structural heterogeneity, competition pressure and strategy payoff are all involved with cooperation levels in supply chain. High structural heterogeneity and strong competition pressure are helpful to promote cooperation frequency.
1、针对供应链的结构特征,本文提出了基于增长、偏好连接和局部选择的供应链演化模型；分析了模型的重要统计特性：网络的平均最短路径,聚类系数,度分布,结构的异质性以及度度相关性。仿真发现,模型具有小世界效应；模型的聚类系数很小,接近为零；模型结构是异质的,具有无标度特征；模型中,连接度小的节点倾向于选择度值大的节点,即模型是异配网络。这些统计特征与相关的研究结果以及实证研究是一致的,表明该模型能较好地描述供应链的拓扑结构。
2、基于演化模型,本文研究了供应链的网络鲁棒性。本文将鲁棒性进一步分为静态鲁棒性和动态鲁棒性。在静态研究中,为了模拟针对供应链的不同破坏,提出了四种模拟规则,即随机删除节点,目标删除节点,随机删除连接边和目标删除连接边。考虑到节点的能力约束,动态鲁棒性研究了因节点过载而引起的级联故障对供应链的破坏力。为了模拟故障的级联效应,首次提出了供应链的故障传播算法。研究发现,针对不同类型的破坏,供应链呈现出不同的鲁棒性能。故障传播机制的引入导致了系统对随机破坏和目标破坏都表现出极为脆弱的鲁棒性能。
3、研究了供应链的合作行为演化。在空间演化博弈框架下,研究了供应链的合作行为演化过程。针对实体间不同的利益关系,将两种不同类型的博弈模型,囚徒困境博弈和雪堆博弈应用于合作演化分析中。同时,根据实体策略的选择偏好和动态调整特点,提出了基于Fermi去则实体策略演化算法。研究发现,虽然两种博弈类型不同,其策略的纳什均衡也不一样,但都可以得到相同的结论：网络结构的异质性、外部竞争压力和策略收益都直接影响着最终网络的合作水平。提高结构的异质性以及增加外部竞争压力有助于提升网络的合作水平。
Supply chains are complex socio-economic systems. Due to their inherent complexity, dynamics as well as uncertainties, it is hard to model supply chains and analyze their performances efficiently. The emergence of the complex network theory provides a novel approach to explore supply chains. Complex networks theory concentrates on investigating the mechanisms, which determine the topological properties observed in numerous complex systems, and exploring the relevance between these topological properties and the system behaviors. The main aim of this dissertation is to model supply chains and analyze their behaviors based on complex network theory. A structural evolving model for supply chain is proposed. Then two important behaviors, i.e. robustness to supply disruption and cooperation behaviors are investigated from the perspective of topological strucutures. The main results and contributions of this dissertation are as follows.
1. Propose a structural evolving model, which focuses on the structural characteristics in supply chains. This model incorporates three mechanisms, i.e., growth, attachment preference and local selection. Then some important statistical properties of the model are explored, which include average path length, clustering coefficient, degree distribution, structural heterogeneity and degree correlation. The simulation results show that the model follows"small-world" effect and its clustering coefficient is extremely small; the model's structure is heterogeneous and its degree distribution follow power-law distribution; the model is disassortative network. These model's properties are consistent with previous works and empirical research, indicating that the model can well describe the structures in supply chain.
2. Based on the structural evolving model, the robustness of supply chains is explored. The robustness in this dissertation is further divided into two categories: static and dynamic robustness. In the static analysis, four rules are introduced to simulate the different damages to supply chain, which include randomly deleting nodes, intentionally deleting nodes, randomly deleting links and intentionally deleting links. Considering nodes'capacity constraints, the cascading failures resulting from nodes' overloading are investigated in the dynamic analysis. In order to imitate cascading failures, a failure propagation process is proposed. Results show that supply chains exhibit different robustness to different damages and the failures propagation can result in supply chains extremely fragile to supply disruption.
3. Based on the structural evolving model, supply chains'cooperation behavior is studied. The strategy evolution of entities in supply chains is explored in the framework of evolutionary game and then two different games, prisoner's dilemma game and snowdrift game, are respectively applied to the strategy evolution. The results indicate that structural heterogeneity, competition pressure and strategy payoff are all involved with cooperation levels in supply chain. High structural heterogeneity and strong competition pressure are helpful to promote cooperation frequency.
引文
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