国有企业经营绩效三预管理模式研究
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摘要
国有企业是我国国民经济的支柱,对我国经济发展做出了显著的贡献。国有企业经营绩效是企业直接目标,国有企业经营绩效管理的最终目的是帮助企业实现经营发展的各种目标,实现企业的稳定健康发展。随着我国国有企业正在努力跻身于竞争日益激烈国际市场,国有企业经营机制和管理的越来越不适应企业的发展要求,严重影响国有企业的经营和发展。
我国传统的国有企业经营绩效管理都是基于事后控制的管理系统,虽能对企业经营情况做出客观的评价,但无法对企业经营活动进行管理并对未来进行预测和预警,这是企业经营战略思维短期化的表现。从长远来说势必会导致企业核心竞争力的丧失,导致企业在激烈的竞争中被淘汰。如何有效的防止国有企业经营中面临的种种风险,成为国家以及国有企业有关决策部门急需解决的重大现实问题,也是学术界需要深入研究的重大理论问题。
本文通过分析国有企业经营绩效出现的问题并对其形成原因进行了研究,提出了对国有企业经营绩效进行预测、预警和预防的三预管理模式,并建立了国有企业经营绩效三预管理模式综合评价模型。通过设计一些相关的指标建立了基于层次分析法和德尔菲法的评价模型,并以L公司为对象进行了实证研究。实证分析表明该方法能有效地评价国有企业经营绩效,符合客观实际,评价结果全面、合理。
文章共分为五个部分:第一章为绪论,对选题背景、研究目的、研究意义、国內外研究现状、研究目标、研究内容和研究方法作了简单的介绍:第二章为与本文研究内容相关的基本理论:第三章为国有企业经营绩效三预管理模式的构建,分别建立的关于国有企业经营绩效的预测模型、基于预测模型的国有企业经营绩效的预警体系和国有企业经营绩效的预防系统,并对国有企业经营绩效三预管理模式的内涵进行了研究,首先利用灰色系统方法建立了国有企业经营绩效的预测模型,然后综合利用系统理论、风险管理理论以及企业预警管理理论建立了基于预测模型的国有企业经营绩效预警管理体系,最后提出了国有企业经营绩效的预防系统,来有效的对国有企业经营绩效进行管理。第四章建立了国有企业经营绩效三预管理的评价模型,首先确立了国有企业绩效三预管理评价指标的设计原则,其次选出了国有企业绩效三预管理模式评价的指标,最后运用层次分析法和德尔菲法结合建立了国有企业经营绩效三预管理的评价模型,并对进行了实证研究。第五章为全文总结和对未来的研究展望,主要对文章的主要内容进行了分析,并明确了本文的主要创新点,随后对未来的研究进行了展望。
本文的主要创新点在于通过构建国有企业经营绩效的预测模型、预警和预防机制,建立了国有企业经营绩效的三预管理模式,通过层次分析法得出了国有企业经营绩效三预管理的综合得分。
The state-owned enterprises are the pillar of the national economy and they have made a significant contribution to the development of China's economic. The direct target of the state-owned enterprises is the enterprises' operating performance. The ultimate goal of the state-owned enterprise performance management is to help enterprises get a variety of development targets, to achieve a stable and healthy development. As China's state-owned enterprises are trying to come to increasingly competitive international market, the operational mechanism and management of the state-owned enterprise can not meet the requirements of the enterprises' development, which seriously affect the development of the state-owned enterprises.
At present, China's state-owned enterprises' performance management are based on post-control system. It can make objective assessment of the situation, but it can not manage the enterprises' business. It also could not make forecasts and early warning for the enterprises, which reflect the short-sighted of the enterprises. As it be away it will lead to the core competitiveness of enterprises in the loss of business resulting in a fierce competition has been eliminated. How to effectively prevent the state-owned enterprises operating from various risks has become a significant problem for both enterprise managers and relevant experts.
This thesis puts forward state-owned enterprises operating performance three pre-management mode which consists of prediction, early-warning and prevention management by analyzing state-owned enterprises operating problems. Then it builds three pre-management evaluation model for state-owned enterprises operating performance. Analytical Hierarchy Process and Delphi Method are used to design the related indexes and build the evaluation model. L company is carried out as an empirical study. The example shows that the method can effectively evaluate performance of state-owned enterprises in line with the objective reality, the evaluation results of a comprehensive and rational.
This thesis consists of five chapters: the first chapter is introduction. It introduces the background of the selected topics, the purpose of the study, the meaning of the research, current situation of the domestic and international research, the contents and approaches of the research; the second chapter discusses the relevant theory of this thesis. The third chapter is construction of the three pre-management mode of the state-owned enterprises' performance. This part builds state-owned enterprises' performance predict model and early warning system and prevention mechanism. Firstly the state-owned enterprises operating performance prediction model is established by gray system method. Secondly the state-owned enterprise performance early-warning management mechanism is put forward which based on systems theory, risk management theory and corporate early-warning management theory. At last state-owned enterprises prevention performance systems is made to manage enterprises' business effectively. The fourth chapter is the evaluation index system of the state-owned enterprises' performance three pre-management. Firstly it determines the design principles, then elects evaluation indexes, using Analytical Hierarchy Process and Delphi Method to design evaluation model and Empirical Study. The fifth chapter is the summary of the thesis and the future outlook of the study. It mainly analysis the main elements of the thesis and point out the main innovation of this article, then predicts the future of the study.
The innovation spot of this thesis lies in constructing state-owned enterprises' operating performance prediction model, early warning system and prevention mechanisms, building state-owned enterprises' three pre-management mode, using AHP to obtain the synthesis score of state-owned enterprises' three pre-management.
我国传统的国有企业经营绩效管理都是基于事后控制的管理系统,虽能对企业经营情况做出客观的评价,但无法对企业经营活动进行管理并对未来进行预测和预警,这是企业经营战略思维短期化的表现。从长远来说势必会导致企业核心竞争力的丧失,导致企业在激烈的竞争中被淘汰。如何有效的防止国有企业经营中面临的种种风险,成为国家以及国有企业有关决策部门急需解决的重大现实问题,也是学术界需要深入研究的重大理论问题。
本文通过分析国有企业经营绩效出现的问题并对其形成原因进行了研究,提出了对国有企业经营绩效进行预测、预警和预防的三预管理模式,并建立了国有企业经营绩效三预管理模式综合评价模型。通过设计一些相关的指标建立了基于层次分析法和德尔菲法的评价模型,并以L公司为对象进行了实证研究。实证分析表明该方法能有效地评价国有企业经营绩效,符合客观实际,评价结果全面、合理。
文章共分为五个部分:第一章为绪论,对选题背景、研究目的、研究意义、国內外研究现状、研究目标、研究内容和研究方法作了简单的介绍:第二章为与本文研究内容相关的基本理论:第三章为国有企业经营绩效三预管理模式的构建,分别建立的关于国有企业经营绩效的预测模型、基于预测模型的国有企业经营绩效的预警体系和国有企业经营绩效的预防系统,并对国有企业经营绩效三预管理模式的内涵进行了研究,首先利用灰色系统方法建立了国有企业经营绩效的预测模型,然后综合利用系统理论、风险管理理论以及企业预警管理理论建立了基于预测模型的国有企业经营绩效预警管理体系,最后提出了国有企业经营绩效的预防系统,来有效的对国有企业经营绩效进行管理。第四章建立了国有企业经营绩效三预管理的评价模型,首先确立了国有企业绩效三预管理评价指标的设计原则,其次选出了国有企业绩效三预管理模式评价的指标,最后运用层次分析法和德尔菲法结合建立了国有企业经营绩效三预管理的评价模型,并对进行了实证研究。第五章为全文总结和对未来的研究展望,主要对文章的主要内容进行了分析,并明确了本文的主要创新点,随后对未来的研究进行了展望。
本文的主要创新点在于通过构建国有企业经营绩效的预测模型、预警和预防机制,建立了国有企业经营绩效的三预管理模式,通过层次分析法得出了国有企业经营绩效三预管理的综合得分。
The state-owned enterprises are the pillar of the national economy and they have made a significant contribution to the development of China's economic. The direct target of the state-owned enterprises is the enterprises' operating performance. The ultimate goal of the state-owned enterprise performance management is to help enterprises get a variety of development targets, to achieve a stable and healthy development. As China's state-owned enterprises are trying to come to increasingly competitive international market, the operational mechanism and management of the state-owned enterprise can not meet the requirements of the enterprises' development, which seriously affect the development of the state-owned enterprises.
At present, China's state-owned enterprises' performance management are based on post-control system. It can make objective assessment of the situation, but it can not manage the enterprises' business. It also could not make forecasts and early warning for the enterprises, which reflect the short-sighted of the enterprises. As it be away it will lead to the core competitiveness of enterprises in the loss of business resulting in a fierce competition has been eliminated. How to effectively prevent the state-owned enterprises operating from various risks has become a significant problem for both enterprise managers and relevant experts.
This thesis puts forward state-owned enterprises operating performance three pre-management mode which consists of prediction, early-warning and prevention management by analyzing state-owned enterprises operating problems. Then it builds three pre-management evaluation model for state-owned enterprises operating performance. Analytical Hierarchy Process and Delphi Method are used to design the related indexes and build the evaluation model. L company is carried out as an empirical study. The example shows that the method can effectively evaluate performance of state-owned enterprises in line with the objective reality, the evaluation results of a comprehensive and rational.
This thesis consists of five chapters: the first chapter is introduction. It introduces the background of the selected topics, the purpose of the study, the meaning of the research, current situation of the domestic and international research, the contents and approaches of the research; the second chapter discusses the relevant theory of this thesis. The third chapter is construction of the three pre-management mode of the state-owned enterprises' performance. This part builds state-owned enterprises' performance predict model and early warning system and prevention mechanism. Firstly the state-owned enterprises operating performance prediction model is established by gray system method. Secondly the state-owned enterprise performance early-warning management mechanism is put forward which based on systems theory, risk management theory and corporate early-warning management theory. At last state-owned enterprises prevention performance systems is made to manage enterprises' business effectively. The fourth chapter is the evaluation index system of the state-owned enterprises' performance three pre-management. Firstly it determines the design principles, then elects evaluation indexes, using Analytical Hierarchy Process and Delphi Method to design evaluation model and Empirical Study. The fifth chapter is the summary of the thesis and the future outlook of the study. It mainly analysis the main elements of the thesis and point out the main innovation of this article, then predicts the future of the study.
The innovation spot of this thesis lies in constructing state-owned enterprises' operating performance prediction model, early warning system and prevention mechanisms, building state-owned enterprises' three pre-management mode, using AHP to obtain the synthesis score of state-owned enterprises' three pre-management.
引文
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[3]沈燕.现行国企绩效评价系统的主要不足及完善设想[J].学习月刊,2005.4:31-37
[4]Fredrik Weissenrieder.Value Based Management:EVA OR CVA[J].Economic&Styrning,1996(5):68-79
[5]Madden,B.J.CFROI Valuation:A Total System Approach to Valuating the Firm[M].Butterworth Heinemann,Boston.1999:122-130
[6]Robert S.Kaplan,David P.Norton.The Balanced Scorecard-Measures that Drive Performance[M].Harvard Business Review,1992(9-10):71-80
[7]Kaplan,R.S.,Norton,D.P.The Strategy-Focused Organization[M].Harvard Business School Press,Boston.2001:111-123
[8]宋小敏,杨青,万君康.高新技术企业综合评价研究[J].科学学研究,2002.1:81-83
[9]金颖.平衡记分卡的应用初探[J].商业会计,2005.(12B):58-59
[10]徐富平.基于动态平衡计分卡的供电企业绩效预测及应用研究[J].重庆大学硕士学位论文,33-37
[11]陈静.上市公司财务恶化预测的实证分析[J].会计研究,1999(4):31-38
[12]吴世农,卢贤义.我国上市公司财务困境的预测模型研究[J].经济研究,2001(6):46-55
[13]孙红湘,沈思.我国房地产开发的灰色预测和分析[J].西安科技学院学报,2003.9:343-346
[14]陈力华.我国民航客运市场的分析和预测[J].上海交通大学学报,2003.4:623-625
[15]曹建安,王春丽.科技人员与企业规模、绩效的相关性与预测模型[J].科技管理研究,2007.5:73-75
[16]国家能源办综合组.加快建立我国能源预测预警系统[J].宏观经济管理,2006.1:33-35
[17]易跃明.企业财务状况预测的神经网络模型[J].统计与决策,2007.2:145-148
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