货币供应量作为我国货币政策中介目标的探讨
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摘要
1996年以来，我国开始将货币供应量作为货币政策的中介目标，货币供应量在我国货币政策体系中占有非常重要的地位，但这一货币政策框架在我国一直存在广泛的争议，何种层次货币供应量作为货币政策中介目标也没有取得一致性意见，因此，深入探讨货币供应量作为我国货币政策中介目标的合理性和有效性，并对此进行实证考察具有重要的理论和现实意义。
本文首先考察了货币供应量作为中介目标的理论基础，战后西方主要国家货币政策中介目标的演变，在此基础上从金融体系结构、利率市场化进程和中央银行独立性三个角度分析评估了我国货币政策的运行环境。本文认为，在我国目前的政治、经济和金融环境下，货币供应量作为中介目标仍然具有优势。
本文随后基于货币需求和货币供给角度对货币供应量作为中介目标的相关性和可控性进行了实证考察。本文研究发现，我国货币需求相对稳定，利率弹性较低，货币流通速度可以进行预测，从货币需求的角度来看，货币供应量可以作为货币政策的中介目标，并且，狭义货币M_1与物价之间的关系更为紧密。因此，从货币需求角度来看，狭义货币M_1作为中介目标具有一定优势。
从货币供给来看，虽然目前的外汇管理体制对基础货币投放形成制约，但是中央银行仍然可以控制基础货币的增长。本文在调整后的基础货币的基础上重新评价我国货币乘数的波动，发现剔除政策变动的货币乘数的波动大幅降低，货币乘数因素占我国货币供应量波动的比重不大，基础货币占据更为重要的作用。从短期来看，基础货币和M_1的波动具有显著的相关性，而M_2和基础货币的关系较弱，但如果充分考虑滞后影响，M_2可控性则高于M_1。
在货币需求和货币供给分析的基础上，本文在一个综合的分析框架下比较了M_1和M_2作为货币政策中介目标的效果，认为如果综合考虑中介目标的相关性和可控性要求，M_2更加适合作为货币政策中介目标，人民银行货币控制的重点应该是M_2的变动。本文还基于泰勒规则框架对货币供应量作为我国货币政策目标的实施效果进行了考察，发现1996年我国宣布货币供应量作为中介目标后，市场利率的弹性明显增强，名义利率的变动幅度大于通货膨胀率的变动幅度，降低了经济整体的波动性，我国货币政策框架中引入货币供应量作为中介目标的制度设计的效果是显著的。此外，实证研究表明，人民银行公开宣布的货币增长目标对其货币政策的实施具有实质性影响，并且，人民银行在实际货币操作中相对而言更关注M_2的增长目标。
本文认为货币供应量作为中介目标的货币政策框架符合我国现阶段的经济金融体系要求，有必要继续保持，并提出相关政策建议，包括提高中央银行独立性、加强对中央银行监督、实行更加灵活的汇率制度、适当提高法定准备金、取消超额准备金利率，以改善货币供应量作为我国货币政策中介目标的基础环境，进一步提高我国货币政策的实施效果。
Since 1996, China began to use money supply as the intermediate target of monetary policy, so money supply has the important position in China's monetary policy system. However, there are still lots of controversies about this monetary policy framework, in addition, about which measure of money aggregates should be the right one to target. Therefore, it has the theoretical and realistic significance to further discuss the effectiveness of the money supply as the monetary policy intermediate target.
This paper first investigates the theoretical basis and the evolutionary process of money supply as the intermediate target in western countries, and analyzes the monetary policy environment in China, from the perspectives of financial system structure, interest rate liberalization stage and the central bank independence. This paper argues money supply still has the advantage to be the intermediate target in China's current political, economical and financial environment.
From the money demand and money supply perspectives, this paper makes empirical studies on the relatedness and controllability of money supply as the intermediate target. It discovers that China's money demand function is relatively stable with low interest rate elasticity, and money velocity could be forecasted. So from the angle of money demand, money supply could be the intermediate target of monetary policy. Furthermore, the empirical study shows that the narrow money has a closer relationship with the price, so narrow money as the intermediate target has the advantage.
From the angle of money supply, this paper argues our central bank still could control the monetary base in spite of challenges of current foreign exchange system. It re-evaluates the volatility of money multipliers based on the adjusted monetary base (AMB), discoveres that the volatility of money multipliers substantially decrease after taking monetary policy change into consideration. Monetary base explainds most part of money supply volatility while the money multiplier contributes rather little proportion in money supply volatility. In short term Ml has a closer relationship with monetary base than M2, however, if lagged influence is taken full consideration, the controllability of M2 is better than M1.
On the basis of discussion above, this paper compares the overall effectiveness of Ml and M2 as the intermediate target of monetary policy, and finds that M2 is more suitable to be the intermediate target of monetary policy if taking money demand and supply effects in a single framework, which means that the central bank should target M2 growth. Based on Taylor Rule, this paper also studies the money supply targeting practice in China and finds that the interest rate elasticity is substantially enhanced and the change of nominal interest rate is larger than that of inflation rate since China applied money supply as the intermediate target in 1996. So the money supply targeting in China reduces the economic volatility and improves monetary policy practice. In addition, the empirical study also shows that PBOC declared money growth target has substantial influence on its monetary policy actions and PBOC pays more attention to M2 growth in practice.
This paper concludes that the monetary policy framework of money supply as the intermediate target is consonant with China's current financial system and insists that it should be kept on. This paper also forwords the policy suggestions, including enhancing central bank independence, strengthening supervision on the central bank, implementing more flexible exchange rate system, raising required reserve ratio and canceling excessive reserve interest, etc.
本文首先考察了货币供应量作为中介目标的理论基础，战后西方主要国家货币政策中介目标的演变，在此基础上从金融体系结构、利率市场化进程和中央银行独立性三个角度分析评估了我国货币政策的运行环境。本文认为，在我国目前的政治、经济和金融环境下，货币供应量作为中介目标仍然具有优势。
本文随后基于货币需求和货币供给角度对货币供应量作为中介目标的相关性和可控性进行了实证考察。本文研究发现，我国货币需求相对稳定，利率弹性较低，货币流通速度可以进行预测，从货币需求的角度来看，货币供应量可以作为货币政策的中介目标，并且，狭义货币M_1与物价之间的关系更为紧密。因此，从货币需求角度来看，狭义货币M_1作为中介目标具有一定优势。
从货币供给来看，虽然目前的外汇管理体制对基础货币投放形成制约，但是中央银行仍然可以控制基础货币的增长。本文在调整后的基础货币的基础上重新评价我国货币乘数的波动，发现剔除政策变动的货币乘数的波动大幅降低，货币乘数因素占我国货币供应量波动的比重不大，基础货币占据更为重要的作用。从短期来看，基础货币和M_1的波动具有显著的相关性，而M_2和基础货币的关系较弱，但如果充分考虑滞后影响，M_2可控性则高于M_1。
在货币需求和货币供给分析的基础上，本文在一个综合的分析框架下比较了M_1和M_2作为货币政策中介目标的效果，认为如果综合考虑中介目标的相关性和可控性要求，M_2更加适合作为货币政策中介目标，人民银行货币控制的重点应该是M_2的变动。本文还基于泰勒规则框架对货币供应量作为我国货币政策目标的实施效果进行了考察，发现1996年我国宣布货币供应量作为中介目标后，市场利率的弹性明显增强，名义利率的变动幅度大于通货膨胀率的变动幅度，降低了经济整体的波动性，我国货币政策框架中引入货币供应量作为中介目标的制度设计的效果是显著的。此外，实证研究表明，人民银行公开宣布的货币增长目标对其货币政策的实施具有实质性影响，并且，人民银行在实际货币操作中相对而言更关注M_2的增长目标。
本文认为货币供应量作为中介目标的货币政策框架符合我国现阶段的经济金融体系要求，有必要继续保持，并提出相关政策建议，包括提高中央银行独立性、加强对中央银行监督、实行更加灵活的汇率制度、适当提高法定准备金、取消超额准备金利率，以改善货币供应量作为我国货币政策中介目标的基础环境，进一步提高我国货币政策的实施效果。
Since 1996, China began to use money supply as the intermediate target of monetary policy, so money supply has the important position in China's monetary policy system. However, there are still lots of controversies about this monetary policy framework, in addition, about which measure of money aggregates should be the right one to target. Therefore, it has the theoretical and realistic significance to further discuss the effectiveness of the money supply as the monetary policy intermediate target.
This paper first investigates the theoretical basis and the evolutionary process of money supply as the intermediate target in western countries, and analyzes the monetary policy environment in China, from the perspectives of financial system structure, interest rate liberalization stage and the central bank independence. This paper argues money supply still has the advantage to be the intermediate target in China's current political, economical and financial environment.
From the money demand and money supply perspectives, this paper makes empirical studies on the relatedness and controllability of money supply as the intermediate target. It discovers that China's money demand function is relatively stable with low interest rate elasticity, and money velocity could be forecasted. So from the angle of money demand, money supply could be the intermediate target of monetary policy. Furthermore, the empirical study shows that the narrow money has a closer relationship with the price, so narrow money as the intermediate target has the advantage.
From the angle of money supply, this paper argues our central bank still could control the monetary base in spite of challenges of current foreign exchange system. It re-evaluates the volatility of money multipliers based on the adjusted monetary base (AMB), discoveres that the volatility of money multipliers substantially decrease after taking monetary policy change into consideration. Monetary base explainds most part of money supply volatility while the money multiplier contributes rather little proportion in money supply volatility. In short term Ml has a closer relationship with monetary base than M2, however, if lagged influence is taken full consideration, the controllability of M2 is better than M1.
On the basis of discussion above, this paper compares the overall effectiveness of Ml and M2 as the intermediate target of monetary policy, and finds that M2 is more suitable to be the intermediate target of monetary policy if taking money demand and supply effects in a single framework, which means that the central bank should target M2 growth. Based on Taylor Rule, this paper also studies the money supply targeting practice in China and finds that the interest rate elasticity is substantially enhanced and the change of nominal interest rate is larger than that of inflation rate since China applied money supply as the intermediate target in 1996. So the money supply targeting in China reduces the economic volatility and improves monetary policy practice. In addition, the empirical study also shows that PBOC declared money growth target has substantial influence on its monetary policy actions and PBOC pays more attention to M2 growth in practice.
This paper concludes that the monetary policy framework of money supply as the intermediate target is consonant with China's current financial system and insists that it should be kept on. This paper also forwords the policy suggestions, including enhancing central bank independence, strengthening supervision on the central bank, implementing more flexible exchange rate system, raising required reserve ratio and canceling excessive reserve interest, etc.
引文
1 支持物价稳定作为货币政策单一目标的理论基础主要在于货币政策中性理论的发展。以弗里德曼为代表的货币主义和以卢卡斯为代表的理性预期学派最先提出货币中性理论，他们认为，从长期来看，货币政策不能影响产出和就业，而仅是影响物价水平；近年来发展起来的真实经济周期理论同样认为货币政策不影响产出和其他真实经济变量，只有资本劳动和生产技术等真实变量的变动才是经济周期的根源。从长期来看，不存在通货膨胀与产出之间的替代关系，即菲利普斯曲线在长期是垂直的，货币政策只能以稳定物价作为单一目标。
2 存款准备金是货币当局的负债，货币当局通过垄断存款准备金的供给，可以有效控制整个银行体系存款准备金的变动(Friedman B．M．，2000)。
3 弗里德曼认为财富应该包括人力财富，从而人力财富与非人力财富的比率也是影响货币需求的变量(W)，但是Laidler(1989)认为，仍然可以使用更狭义更方便的非人力财富作为财富的代表，并且这个问题好像不是至关重要的。
4 参见莱德勒，《货币需求：理论、证据和问题》，上海三联出版社，1993，第81页。
5 弗里德曼把货币供应量增长对利率产生的动态效应归结为流动性效应、所得效应和价格预期效应3种：其中只有流动性效应是利率按照传统认识的方向变化，而所得效应则使利率恢复到原来的水平，价格预期效应又使利率继续上升，以至于达到比起点更高的水平，鉴于以上原因，弗里德曼认为中央银行无法控制利率水平，因而反对利率作为货币政策的中介目标。
6 当然，也有学者认为不能排除商业周期领先于货币存量的变动，但是Friedman & Schwartz认为，按照这种解释，相关分布的离散程度(以标准差衡量)明显变大，并且序列相关性变差，证据倾向于货币存量正向领先于商业周期的变化。
7 Bordo and Schwartz(1983)对美国战后货币供应量波动和产出波动的关系进行了考察，证实了二者存在紧密的关系。
8 转引自Ben Bernanke, Thomas Laubach, Frederic S. Mishkin& Adam S. Posen, Inflation Targeting: Lessons from the International Experience, Princeton University, 2001, 第44-45页。
9 资料来源于钱荣堃，“西方七国中央银行战后50年内调控宏观经济的经验”，《国际金融专题研究》，南开大学，1995，第5-9页，以及谢杭生等，“战后西方国家货币政策目标比较”，《金融研究》，1997年第6期，第39页。
10 Federal Reserve Bank of New York, 1994。
1 货币收益率采用数量加权平均方式计算。
2 当然，对此现象还存在其他合理的解释，如人民银行在年初制定的货币增长目标并不是一个合理的目标，人民银行在实际执行时根据具体的经济环境对相应目标进行调整，即人民银行并没有严格按照年初预定的货币增长目标进行操作。此外，这也可能反映了人民银行的货币政策缺乏自主性。
3 有些学者认为中央银行通过发行短期票据回笼基础货币增加了货币调控的成本，这种观点是值得商榷的。笔者认为，中央银行发行短期票据在政策效果上相当于提高了存款准备金比率，由于我国存款准备金本来就是付息的，因此短期票据的利息并不是该项货币政策工具的操作成本，短期票据利率与超额准备金利率之间的差额才构成该项货币政策工具的操作成本。
4 转引自时卫干，“对中央银行干预和冲销操作成本的研究”，经济发展论坛工作论文，2005。
5 严格地讲，货币供应量和基础货币的一阶差分也可能是非平稳的，比如，它们如果保持以10％的速度增长，一阶差分的值将变得越来越大。但是，在小样本中，这个问题并不会十分严重。
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2 存款准备金是货币当局的负债，货币当局通过垄断存款准备金的供给，可以有效控制整个银行体系存款准备金的变动(Friedman B．M．，2000)。
3 弗里德曼认为财富应该包括人力财富，从而人力财富与非人力财富的比率也是影响货币需求的变量(W)，但是Laidler(1989)认为，仍然可以使用更狭义更方便的非人力财富作为财富的代表，并且这个问题好像不是至关重要的。
4 参见莱德勒，《货币需求：理论、证据和问题》，上海三联出版社，1993，第81页。
5 弗里德曼把货币供应量增长对利率产生的动态效应归结为流动性效应、所得效应和价格预期效应3种：其中只有流动性效应是利率按照传统认识的方向变化，而所得效应则使利率恢复到原来的水平，价格预期效应又使利率继续上升，以至于达到比起点更高的水平，鉴于以上原因，弗里德曼认为中央银行无法控制利率水平，因而反对利率作为货币政策的中介目标。
6 当然，也有学者认为不能排除商业周期领先于货币存量的变动，但是Friedman & Schwartz认为，按照这种解释，相关分布的离散程度(以标准差衡量)明显变大，并且序列相关性变差，证据倾向于货币存量正向领先于商业周期的变化。
7 Bordo and Schwartz(1983)对美国战后货币供应量波动和产出波动的关系进行了考察，证实了二者存在紧密的关系。
8 转引自Ben Bernanke, Thomas Laubach, Frederic S. Mishkin& Adam S. Posen, Inflation Targeting: Lessons from the International Experience, Princeton University, 2001, 第44-45页。
9 资料来源于钱荣堃，“西方七国中央银行战后50年内调控宏观经济的经验”，《国际金融专题研究》，南开大学，1995，第5-9页，以及谢杭生等，“战后西方国家货币政策目标比较”，《金融研究》，1997年第6期，第39页。
10 Federal Reserve Bank of New York, 1994。
1 货币收益率采用数量加权平均方式计算。
2 当然，对此现象还存在其他合理的解释，如人民银行在年初制定的货币增长目标并不是一个合理的目标，人民银行在实际执行时根据具体的经济环境对相应目标进行调整，即人民银行并没有严格按照年初预定的货币增长目标进行操作。此外，这也可能反映了人民银行的货币政策缺乏自主性。
3 有些学者认为中央银行通过发行短期票据回笼基础货币增加了货币调控的成本，这种观点是值得商榷的。笔者认为，中央银行发行短期票据在政策效果上相当于提高了存款准备金比率，由于我国存款准备金本来就是付息的，因此短期票据的利息并不是该项货币政策工具的操作成本，短期票据利率与超额准备金利率之间的差额才构成该项货币政策工具的操作成本。
4 转引自时卫干，“对中央银行干预和冲销操作成本的研究”，经济发展论坛工作论文，2005。
5 严格地讲，货币供应量和基础货币的一阶差分也可能是非平稳的，比如，它们如果保持以10％的速度增长，一阶差分的值将变得越来越大。但是，在小样本中，这个问题并不会十分严重。
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