农产品贸易虚拟水对水资源可持续利用的影响分析
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摘要
如何实现水资源的可持续利用,以支持经济社会的可持续发展,已经成为当前全世界普遍关注的问题。我国水资源分布在空间和时间上显著不平衡,与经济结构以及人口分布格局也明显不匹配。这对我国水资源的可持续开发、利用以及管理提出了长期的挑战,我国水资源管理的理论以及实践需要有创新的思路与战略指导。
虚拟水概念的提出以及虚拟水战略的研究、应用就是近年来水资源可持续利用领域的一个全新的研究热点。本文在综合了水资源可持续利用以及农产品虚拟水贸易相关研究的基础上,构建了水资源压力指数对我国区域水资源利用现状作出描述,计算了2002-2007年我国主要农产品的虚拟水贸易量,并针对虚拟水贸易对区域水资源可持续利用的影响作出实证分析,结果表明:
第一,我国各省区的水资源可持续利用压力及其变动表现出较大的差异性。按照东、中、西部省区进行划分:东部地区水资源可持续利用压力最大,变动方向上呈现出明显的两极分化的特征;中部省区整体水资源利用压力整体处于中等水平,且水资源利用压力整体变动不大;西部省区水资源利用的压力整体来看是最低的,但水资源压力整体呈上升趋势。
第二,自2002年以来我国在虚拟水贸易上一直是净进口国,虚拟水净进口总量整体呈现出逐步增长的态势,近年来增势有所放缓并趋于平稳。其中,东部地区整体表现为虚拟水净进口,西部地区整体为虚拟水净出口,中部省区农产品虚拟水进出口情况则差异较大。
第三,农产品虚拟水贸易对我国不同省区水资源可持续利用压力影响也表现出不同的特征:东部省区通过虚拟水净进口整体对区域水资源压力有很大的降低作用;西部省区整体为虚拟水净出口,水资源压力有一定程度的增大,水资源压力逐渐提升也将是这些地区的一个重要趋势;中部省区农产品虚拟水贸易对区域水资源压力的影响则表现出较大的差异性。
综合来看,虚拟水战略近年来已经在我国得到了良好的应用,而随着我国水资源利用的压力从中低压力逐渐向中高压力转变,虚拟水战略在我国有必要扩大应用,应进一步将农产品贸易进口虚拟水作为实现水资源可持续利用的有效途径。但是,各省区在进一步引进和扩大应用虚拟水战略的实践中,还需要具体结合区域经济社会发展状况、水资源利用现状等多方面进行综合决策。
Currently it has become a common concern all over the world about how to realizesustainable utilization of water resource to support sustainable development of society andeconomy. In China, distribution of water resource in space and time shows a significant imbalance.Meantime, China’s water distribution apparently does not match with its economic structure andspatial pattern of population. It challenges the sustainable development, utilization andmanagement of water resource so severely that China's water resource management in both theoryand practice requires innovative thinking and strategic direction.
In recent years, the proposal of the concept virtual water and studies as well as application ofvirtual water strategy is a brand-new focus in the field of sustainable utilization of water resource.Based on comprehensive study in water sustainable and virtual water trade in agriculturecommodity, this paper builds water resource stress indicator to picture the current situation ofregional water use in China, counts the trade volume of the virtual water in main agricultureproducts in 2002-2007, and makes a empirical analysis of how the virtual water trade affects thesustainable utilization of regional water resource. The result shows in the follows.
1. Pressure as well as its change on water resource sustainable utilization shows a greatdifference between China’s provinces. Dividing the provinces into eastern, central and westernpart, we can see that the eastern region suffers the greatest stress when its change in pressuresuffered shows a significant polarization and central provinces as a whole at a medium levelsteadily while the pressure on water resource in western China is the lowest but has an overallupward trend.
2. Since 2002 China has been a net importer in the virtual water trade and the total importgrows gradually. On the other hand, in recent years the rising tendency has slowed down andstabilized. To be specific, the eastern region shows a net import and the western region is a netexporter, while the central provinces has great differences in virtual water import and export ofagricultural products.
3. The influence of virtual water trade over the pressure on sustainable utilization of regionalwater resource is different, too. The eastern provinces as a whole reduce their pressure to a greatextent through a net import of virtual water. As a net exporter of virtual water, western regionbears an increasing pressure, which will be an important trend in these areas. Central provincesshow considerable variability of the influence.
The virtual water strategy has a good application in China in recent years. As pressure onwater use gradually transfers from medium low level to medium high level, China has to expandthe application of the virtual water strategy and value importing virtual water through agriculturetrade as an efficient way to realize sustainable utilization of water resource. Each province shouldcombine their specific status of social and economic development, water resource utilization, etc.to make integrated decision when introducing and promoting application of virtual water strategy.
虚拟水概念的提出以及虚拟水战略的研究、应用就是近年来水资源可持续利用领域的一个全新的研究热点。本文在综合了水资源可持续利用以及农产品虚拟水贸易相关研究的基础上,构建了水资源压力指数对我国区域水资源利用现状作出描述,计算了2002-2007年我国主要农产品的虚拟水贸易量,并针对虚拟水贸易对区域水资源可持续利用的影响作出实证分析,结果表明:
第一,我国各省区的水资源可持续利用压力及其变动表现出较大的差异性。按照东、中、西部省区进行划分:东部地区水资源可持续利用压力最大,变动方向上呈现出明显的两极分化的特征;中部省区整体水资源利用压力整体处于中等水平,且水资源利用压力整体变动不大;西部省区水资源利用的压力整体来看是最低的,但水资源压力整体呈上升趋势。
第二,自2002年以来我国在虚拟水贸易上一直是净进口国,虚拟水净进口总量整体呈现出逐步增长的态势,近年来增势有所放缓并趋于平稳。其中,东部地区整体表现为虚拟水净进口,西部地区整体为虚拟水净出口,中部省区农产品虚拟水进出口情况则差异较大。
第三,农产品虚拟水贸易对我国不同省区水资源可持续利用压力影响也表现出不同的特征:东部省区通过虚拟水净进口整体对区域水资源压力有很大的降低作用;西部省区整体为虚拟水净出口,水资源压力有一定程度的增大,水资源压力逐渐提升也将是这些地区的一个重要趋势;中部省区农产品虚拟水贸易对区域水资源压力的影响则表现出较大的差异性。
综合来看,虚拟水战略近年来已经在我国得到了良好的应用,而随着我国水资源利用的压力从中低压力逐渐向中高压力转变,虚拟水战略在我国有必要扩大应用,应进一步将农产品贸易进口虚拟水作为实现水资源可持续利用的有效途径。但是,各省区在进一步引进和扩大应用虚拟水战略的实践中,还需要具体结合区域经济社会发展状况、水资源利用现状等多方面进行综合决策。
Currently it has become a common concern all over the world about how to realizesustainable utilization of water resource to support sustainable development of society andeconomy. In China, distribution of water resource in space and time shows a significant imbalance.Meantime, China’s water distribution apparently does not match with its economic structure andspatial pattern of population. It challenges the sustainable development, utilization andmanagement of water resource so severely that China's water resource management in both theoryand practice requires innovative thinking and strategic direction.
In recent years, the proposal of the concept virtual water and studies as well as application ofvirtual water strategy is a brand-new focus in the field of sustainable utilization of water resource.Based on comprehensive study in water sustainable and virtual water trade in agriculturecommodity, this paper builds water resource stress indicator to picture the current situation ofregional water use in China, counts the trade volume of the virtual water in main agricultureproducts in 2002-2007, and makes a empirical analysis of how the virtual water trade affects thesustainable utilization of regional water resource. The result shows in the follows.
1. Pressure as well as its change on water resource sustainable utilization shows a greatdifference between China’s provinces. Dividing the provinces into eastern, central and westernpart, we can see that the eastern region suffers the greatest stress when its change in pressuresuffered shows a significant polarization and central provinces as a whole at a medium levelsteadily while the pressure on water resource in western China is the lowest but has an overallupward trend.
2. Since 2002 China has been a net importer in the virtual water trade and the total importgrows gradually. On the other hand, in recent years the rising tendency has slowed down andstabilized. To be specific, the eastern region shows a net import and the western region is a netexporter, while the central provinces has great differences in virtual water import and export ofagricultural products.
3. The influence of virtual water trade over the pressure on sustainable utilization of regionalwater resource is different, too. The eastern provinces as a whole reduce their pressure to a greatextent through a net import of virtual water. As a net exporter of virtual water, western regionbears an increasing pressure, which will be an important trend in these areas. Central provincesshow considerable variability of the influence.
The virtual water strategy has a good application in China in recent years. As pressure onwater use gradually transfers from medium low level to medium high level, China has to expandthe application of the virtual water strategy and value importing virtual water through agriculturetrade as an efficient way to realize sustainable utilization of water resource. Each province shouldcombine their specific status of social and economic development, water resource utilization, etc.to make integrated decision when introducing and promoting application of virtual water strategy.
引文
1、Allan JA.,“Fortunately there are substitutes for water otherwise our hydro- political futures would be impossible”,Priorities for water resources allocation and management,ODA,London,1993.
2、Allan JA.,“Virtual water: A long term solution for water short Middle Eastern economics?”Paper Presented at the 1997 British Association Festival of Science,University of Leeds,9 September 1997.
3、程国栋:《虚拟水——中国水资源安全战略的新思路》[J],中国科学院院刊,2003(4).
4、刘毅,贾若祥,侯晓丽:《中国区域水资源可持续利用评价及类型划分》[J],环境科学,2005(1).
5、刘恒,耿雷华,陈晓燕:《区域水资源可持续利用评价指标体系的建立》[J],水科学进展,2003(5).
6、朱玉仙,黄义星,王丽杰:《水资源可持续开发利用综合评价方法》[J],吉林大学学报,2002(1).
7、卞建民,杨建强:《水资源可持续利用评价的指标体系研究》[J],水土保持通报,2000(8).
8、王慧敏,刘新仁,徐立中:《水资源可持续利用评价的指标体系研究》[J],系统工程,2001(5).
9、Chapagain A K., Hoekstra A Y.,“Virtual water trade: A quantification of virtual water flows between nations in relation to international trade of livestock and 1ivestock products”, Virtual Water Flows Between Nations in Relation to Trade in Livestock and Livestock Products,Value of Water Research Report Series No.13,IHE,Delft,the Netherlands,2003.
10、Zimmer D.and Renault D.,“Virtual water in food Production and global trade:Review of Methodological issues and preliminary results”,Hoekstra A.Y.,Virtual water trade: Proceedings of the International Expert Meeting on Virtual Water Trade, Value of Water Research Report Series No.12,IHE,Delft,the Netherlands,2003.
11、Oki T.,Sato M.,Kawamusa A. et al,“Virtual Trade to Japan and In the World”, Hoekstra A.Y.,Virtual water trade: Proceedings of the International Expert Meeting on Virtual Water Trade,Value of Water Research Report Series No.12,IHE,Delft,the Netherlands,2003.
12、曹建廷,李原园,张文胜:《农畜产品虚拟水研究的背景、方法及意义》[J],水科学进展,2004,(6).
13、王红瑞,王军红:《中国畜产品的虚拟水含量》[J],环境科学,2006(4).
14、黄小荣,裴源生,梁川:《宁夏虚拟水贸易计算的投入产出方法》[J],水科学进展,2005,(7).
15、Dennis Wichelins,“The Role of Virtual Water in Efforts to Achieve Food Security and Other National Goals,with an Example from Egypt”,Agricultural Water Management:2001,(49).
16、龙爱华,徐中民,张志强:《西北四省(区)2000年的水资源足迹》[J],冰川冻土,2003(12).
17、柯兵,柳文华,段光明,严岩,邓红兵,赵景柱:《虚拟水在解决农业生产和粮食安全问题中的作用研究》[J],环境科学,2004(3).
18、王新华:《中部四省虚拟水贸易的初步研究》[J],中国农村水利水电,2004(9).
19、Allan J.A.,“Virtual Water Eliminates water wars? A case study of Jordan River Basin[J]”,SAIS Journal,2002(2).
20、秦丽杰,邱红,陶国芳:《粮食贸易与水资源安全》[J],世界地理研究,2006(3).
21、龙爱华,徐中民,张志强:《虚拟水理论方法与西北4省(区)虚拟水实证研究》[J],地球科学进展,2004(8).
22、严晓玲,刘茂祥,陈维哲,刘民:《三江平原的虚拟水战略与经济的分析》[J],现代化农业,2006(2).
23、钟华平,耿雷华:《虚拟水与水安全》[J],中国水利,2004(3).
24、姜文来:《中国21世纪水资源安全对策研究》[J],水科学进展,2001(3).
25、Yang H., Zehnder A.J.B.,“Water scarcity and food import: a case study for southern Mediterranean countries”[J]. World Develop,30(8).
26、Dabo Guan, Klaus Hubacek,“Assessmentof regional trade and virtual water flows in China”[J],Ecological Economics, 2006(22).
27、A.Y. Hoekstra,“An Introduction of Virtual Water Trade”, Value of Water Research Report Series,IHE,Delft,2003.
28、柳长顺,陈献,刘昌明,杨红:《虚拟水交易:解决中国水资源短缺与粮食安全的一种选择》[J],资源科学,2005(3).
29、马静,汪党献, Hoekstra A.Y.:《虚拟水贸易与跨流域调水》[J],中国水利,2004(7).
30、左东启,戴树声,袁汝华,李鸿业,芮孝芳:《水资源评价指标体系研究》[J],水科学进展,1996(12).
31、钟定胜,孙亚梅,张宏伟,李闫:《水资源可持续开发的综合评价指标体系研究与应用》[J],天津工业大学学报,2005(4).
32、李飞,贾屏,张运鑫,齐青青:《区域水资源可持续利用评价指标体系及评价方法研究》[J],水利科技与经济,2007(11).
33、贾绍凤,张军岩,张士锋:《区域水资源压力指数与水资源安全评价指标体系》[J],地理科学进展,2002(11).
34、韩宇平,阮本清:《中国区域发展的水资源压力及空间分布》[J],四川师范学院学报,2002(9).
35、吴佩林:《我国区域发展的水资源压力分析》[J],西北农林科技大学学报,2005(10).
36、刘幸菡:《中国虚拟水贸易战略初探》,北京工业大学硕士学位论文,2007(5).
37、纪尚安:《我国农产品虚拟水贸易研究》,青岛大学硕士学位论文,2008(5).
2、Allan JA.,“Virtual water: A long term solution for water short Middle Eastern economics?”Paper Presented at the 1997 British Association Festival of Science,University of Leeds,9 September 1997.
3、程国栋:《虚拟水——中国水资源安全战略的新思路》[J],中国科学院院刊,2003(4).
4、刘毅,贾若祥,侯晓丽:《中国区域水资源可持续利用评价及类型划分》[J],环境科学,2005(1).
5、刘恒,耿雷华,陈晓燕:《区域水资源可持续利用评价指标体系的建立》[J],水科学进展,2003(5).
6、朱玉仙,黄义星,王丽杰:《水资源可持续开发利用综合评价方法》[J],吉林大学学报,2002(1).
7、卞建民,杨建强:《水资源可持续利用评价的指标体系研究》[J],水土保持通报,2000(8).
8、王慧敏,刘新仁,徐立中:《水资源可持续利用评价的指标体系研究》[J],系统工程,2001(5).
9、Chapagain A K., Hoekstra A Y.,“Virtual water trade: A quantification of virtual water flows between nations in relation to international trade of livestock and 1ivestock products”, Virtual Water Flows Between Nations in Relation to Trade in Livestock and Livestock Products,Value of Water Research Report Series No.13,IHE,Delft,the Netherlands,2003.
10、Zimmer D.and Renault D.,“Virtual water in food Production and global trade:Review of Methodological issues and preliminary results”,Hoekstra A.Y.,Virtual water trade: Proceedings of the International Expert Meeting on Virtual Water Trade, Value of Water Research Report Series No.12,IHE,Delft,the Netherlands,2003.
11、Oki T.,Sato M.,Kawamusa A. et al,“Virtual Trade to Japan and In the World”, Hoekstra A.Y.,Virtual water trade: Proceedings of the International Expert Meeting on Virtual Water Trade,Value of Water Research Report Series No.12,IHE,Delft,the Netherlands,2003.
12、曹建廷,李原园,张文胜:《农畜产品虚拟水研究的背景、方法及意义》[J],水科学进展,2004,(6).
13、王红瑞,王军红:《中国畜产品的虚拟水含量》[J],环境科学,2006(4).
14、黄小荣,裴源生,梁川:《宁夏虚拟水贸易计算的投入产出方法》[J],水科学进展,2005,(7).
15、Dennis Wichelins,“The Role of Virtual Water in Efforts to Achieve Food Security and Other National Goals,with an Example from Egypt”,Agricultural Water Management:2001,(49).
16、龙爱华,徐中民,张志强:《西北四省(区)2000年的水资源足迹》[J],冰川冻土,2003(12).
17、柯兵,柳文华,段光明,严岩,邓红兵,赵景柱:《虚拟水在解决农业生产和粮食安全问题中的作用研究》[J],环境科学,2004(3).
18、王新华:《中部四省虚拟水贸易的初步研究》[J],中国农村水利水电,2004(9).
19、Allan J.A.,“Virtual Water Eliminates water wars? A case study of Jordan River Basin[J]”,SAIS Journal,2002(2).
20、秦丽杰,邱红,陶国芳:《粮食贸易与水资源安全》[J],世界地理研究,2006(3).
21、龙爱华,徐中民,张志强:《虚拟水理论方法与西北4省(区)虚拟水实证研究》[J],地球科学进展,2004(8).
22、严晓玲,刘茂祥,陈维哲,刘民:《三江平原的虚拟水战略与经济的分析》[J],现代化农业,2006(2).
23、钟华平,耿雷华:《虚拟水与水安全》[J],中国水利,2004(3).
24、姜文来:《中国21世纪水资源安全对策研究》[J],水科学进展,2001(3).
25、Yang H., Zehnder A.J.B.,“Water scarcity and food import: a case study for southern Mediterranean countries”[J]. World Develop,30(8).
26、Dabo Guan, Klaus Hubacek,“Assessmentof regional trade and virtual water flows in China”[J],Ecological Economics, 2006(22).
27、A.Y. Hoekstra,“An Introduction of Virtual Water Trade”, Value of Water Research Report Series,IHE,Delft,2003.
28、柳长顺,陈献,刘昌明,杨红:《虚拟水交易:解决中国水资源短缺与粮食安全的一种选择》[J],资源科学,2005(3).
29、马静,汪党献, Hoekstra A.Y.:《虚拟水贸易与跨流域调水》[J],中国水利,2004(7).
30、左东启,戴树声,袁汝华,李鸿业,芮孝芳:《水资源评价指标体系研究》[J],水科学进展,1996(12).
31、钟定胜,孙亚梅,张宏伟,李闫:《水资源可持续开发的综合评价指标体系研究与应用》[J],天津工业大学学报,2005(4).
32、李飞,贾屏,张运鑫,齐青青:《区域水资源可持续利用评价指标体系及评价方法研究》[J],水利科技与经济,2007(11).
33、贾绍凤,张军岩,张士锋:《区域水资源压力指数与水资源安全评价指标体系》[J],地理科学进展,2002(11).
34、韩宇平,阮本清:《中国区域发展的水资源压力及空间分布》[J],四川师范学院学报,2002(9).
35、吴佩林:《我国区域发展的水资源压力分析》[J],西北农林科技大学学报,2005(10).
36、刘幸菡:《中国虚拟水贸易战略初探》,北京工业大学硕士学位论文,2007(5).
37、纪尚安:《我国农产品虚拟水贸易研究》,青岛大学硕士学位论文,2008(5).