基于生态相似性的船舶压载水风险评估模型
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摘要
随着中国加入WTO以后,我国与世界的贸易往来更加密切。外来物种通过贸易、旅游、交通运输等途径进入我国,很大一部分引起了生物入侵,不仅造成巨大的经济损失,而且严重危害生态环境。其中水生生态系统的情况最为严重。外来海洋生物主要是通过船舶压载水入侵,造成的影响极其复杂,已经引起了世界各国的广泛关注。就此问题,该论文通过风险评估手段来预防外来海洋生物入侵。
本文以外来海洋生物入侵的研究现状为基础,详细分析了影响外来海洋生物入侵的因素,借鉴《国际船舶压载水和沉积物控制和管理公约》第A-4条规定的风险评估导则(G7)以及全球压载水管理项目(GloBallast)和本课题组前期建立的模型,对其风险因子进行优化,重新构筑权重,对新模型的各个风险因子进行修正,计算出风险值,最终确立源港口对目的港的风险程度。对于修正和完善了的风险评估模型进行系统开发,来进一步推广该模型的应用。主要工作如下：
第一,本模型包含群落结构相似性,环境相似性,危险物种因素,船舱最大容积因素,以及最短存储时间因素五个风险因子,是将五个因子通过层次分析法,运用模糊统计思想建立而成。
第二,选用大连港和敖德萨港作为目的港,进行模型验证,将风险计算结果与全球压载水管理项目相比较,所得结果合理,说明优化的新模型具有实用性。
第三,本文采用Visual Basic语言,结合Access数据库进行系统开发。将系统分为三个模块：查询／增加港口信息模块、增加／查询访问信息模块、港口风险因子查询与编辑模块。该风险评估模型系统实现了信息查询、增加和显示功能。
经过模型验证,新模型具有可行性和可操作性,可以进行系统开发。开发的系统最终提交给海事管理部门,协助其进行船舶压载水管理,从而有效控制船舶压载水所携带的外来海洋生物,降低生物入侵的风险,避免其入侵造成危害。
With China's accession to WTO, China has been communicating with other countries more frequently, and also economic has developed more rapidly. Alien species enter the country through trade, tourism, transport and other means, a lot of which have caused the invasion. The invasive species not only cause huge economic losses, but also damage the environment seriously. The invasion of aquatic ecosystem is the most serious situation. Ballast water is the main invasion way of alien aquatic organisms. The complex effects caused by the aquatic organisms via ballast water have attracted world wide attention. With this regard, the paper used risk assessment to prevent the invasion of alien aquatic organisms.
Based on the research of the invasion by alien marine species, the paper analyzed the factors which can impact the invasion of alien aquatic organisms in detail. Refer to the "international convention of ship ballast water and sediment control and management" the A-4 provided guidelines for risk assessment within the (G7), Globallast project and the initial model of our group, the new model has changed the factors. And it has used different weight to analysis the factors. The paper optimized the risk factors, constructed new weight and modified each risk factor, calculated value at risk and finally established the risk degree of source ports for destination ports. The paper developed a new system following the correction and perfect model, to promote the application of this model for further time. Main tasks are as follows:
First, this model contains community structure similarity, environmental similarity, risk species factor, maximum tank volume factor and minimum storage time factor. This ballast water risk assessment model is established by hierarchical analysis and fuzzy statistical thinking.
Second, the paper has selected Odessa Port and Dalian Port as the destination port to verify the model and the results compared to the globllast project, ultimately the results are reasonable. That indicates that the new model by optimization is practical.
Third, the paper has used Visual Basic language, combined with Access database to development the system. The system is divided into three modules:query/additional port information modules, add/query access information module, port risk factor check and edit the content. The risk assessment model system can provide information, such as, query, add and display.
After the model validation, the new model is feasible and practical, which can develop a system. The developed system will be submitted to the Marine Management Department eventually, to assist in ship's ballast water management, which can control the emission of the ship's ballast water which carried alien aquatic organisms. So that it can reduce the invasion risk of alien aquatic organisms and avoid the damage by the invasion.
本文以外来海洋生物入侵的研究现状为基础,详细分析了影响外来海洋生物入侵的因素,借鉴《国际船舶压载水和沉积物控制和管理公约》第A-4条规定的风险评估导则(G7)以及全球压载水管理项目(GloBallast)和本课题组前期建立的模型,对其风险因子进行优化,重新构筑权重,对新模型的各个风险因子进行修正,计算出风险值,最终确立源港口对目的港的风险程度。对于修正和完善了的风险评估模型进行系统开发,来进一步推广该模型的应用。主要工作如下：
第一,本模型包含群落结构相似性,环境相似性,危险物种因素,船舱最大容积因素,以及最短存储时间因素五个风险因子,是将五个因子通过层次分析法,运用模糊统计思想建立而成。
第二,选用大连港和敖德萨港作为目的港,进行模型验证,将风险计算结果与全球压载水管理项目相比较,所得结果合理,说明优化的新模型具有实用性。
第三,本文采用Visual Basic语言,结合Access数据库进行系统开发。将系统分为三个模块：查询／增加港口信息模块、增加／查询访问信息模块、港口风险因子查询与编辑模块。该风险评估模型系统实现了信息查询、增加和显示功能。
经过模型验证,新模型具有可行性和可操作性,可以进行系统开发。开发的系统最终提交给海事管理部门,协助其进行船舶压载水管理,从而有效控制船舶压载水所携带的外来海洋生物,降低生物入侵的风险,避免其入侵造成危害。
With China's accession to WTO, China has been communicating with other countries more frequently, and also economic has developed more rapidly. Alien species enter the country through trade, tourism, transport and other means, a lot of which have caused the invasion. The invasive species not only cause huge economic losses, but also damage the environment seriously. The invasion of aquatic ecosystem is the most serious situation. Ballast water is the main invasion way of alien aquatic organisms. The complex effects caused by the aquatic organisms via ballast water have attracted world wide attention. With this regard, the paper used risk assessment to prevent the invasion of alien aquatic organisms.
Based on the research of the invasion by alien marine species, the paper analyzed the factors which can impact the invasion of alien aquatic organisms in detail. Refer to the "international convention of ship ballast water and sediment control and management" the A-4 provided guidelines for risk assessment within the (G7), Globallast project and the initial model of our group, the new model has changed the factors. And it has used different weight to analysis the factors. The paper optimized the risk factors, constructed new weight and modified each risk factor, calculated value at risk and finally established the risk degree of source ports for destination ports. The paper developed a new system following the correction and perfect model, to promote the application of this model for further time. Main tasks are as follows:
First, this model contains community structure similarity, environmental similarity, risk species factor, maximum tank volume factor and minimum storage time factor. This ballast water risk assessment model is established by hierarchical analysis and fuzzy statistical thinking.
Second, the paper has selected Odessa Port and Dalian Port as the destination port to verify the model and the results compared to the globllast project, ultimately the results are reasonable. That indicates that the new model by optimization is practical.
Third, the paper has used Visual Basic language, combined with Access database to development the system. The system is divided into three modules:query/additional port information modules, add/query access information module, port risk factor check and edit the content. The risk assessment model system can provide information, such as, query, add and display.
After the model validation, the new model is feasible and practical, which can develop a system. The developed system will be submitted to the Marine Management Department eventually, to assist in ship's ballast water management, which can control the emission of the ship's ballast water which carried alien aquatic organisms. So that it can reduce the invasion risk of alien aquatic organisms and avoid the damage by the invasion.
引文
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[3]www. chinabiodiversity. com.
[4]付保荣,惠秀娟.生态环境安全与管理.北京：化学工业出版社,2005.41-43.
[5]张平清.外来有害生物入侵风险分析方法与风险管理措施研究(博士学位论文).国防科学技术大学,2005.
[6]李元.环境生态学导论.北京：科学出版社,2009.225.
[7]夏大庆,徐刚,彭涛等.生物入侵的危害及原因分析.长春师范学院学报,2005,24(1)：43-44.
[8]苏荣辉.对生物入侵研究对策的思考.中国科学院院刊.科技与社会,2002,5：22-24.
[9]赵曙国.外来物种入侵途径及防治方法的探讨.检验检疫科学,2006,Vol.16：77-79.
[10]吴恒.船舶动力装置技术管理.大连：大连海事大学出版社,1999.73.
[11]IMO. Harmful aquatic organisms in ballast water, Report of the Working Group on Ballast Water convened during MEPC 41.IMO/MEPC.1998:8-42.
[12]张硕慧.船舶压载水转移外来物种机制的探讨.中国航海.2002,1：43-47.
[13]刘述锡,梁玉波.外来海洋生物的入侵及其生态危害.大自然.2004,2：54-55.
[14]McCarthy H. P, L. B. Crowder. An Overlooked Scale of Global Transport: Phytoplankton Species Richness in Ships'Ballast Water. Biological Invasions, 2000,2(4):321-322.
[15]Barber, F. G. Macroalgae at 75 m in Hudson Bay. Canadian Technical Report of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences.1983, No.1179:17.
[16]Howarth J. The presence and implication of foreign organisms in ship ballast waters discharged into the Great Lakes. Environment Protection Service.1981,5: 19.
[17]David M. Results from the first ballast water sampling study in the Mediterranean Sea-the Port of Koper study. Marine Pollution Bulletin.2007. 54(1):53-65.
[18]R. J. Williams, F. B. Griffiths, E. J. Van der Wal et al. Cargo vessel ballast water as a vector for the transport of non-indigenous marine species. Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science.1988.26(4):409-420.
[19]J. T. Carlton, J. B. Geller. Ecological roulette:the global transport of non-indigenous marine organisms. Science.1993.261 (5117):78-82
[20]Carlton, J.T. Transoceanic and Interoceanic Dispersal of Coastal Marine Organisms:the biology of ballast water. Oceanographic Marine Biology Annual Review.1985,23:313-374.
[21]Gollasch, S., Lenz, J., Dammer, M., et al. Survival of tropical ballast water organisms during a cruise from the Indian Ocean to the north Sea. Journal of Plankton Research.2000,22,923-937.
[22]Gollasch, S., Rosenthal, H., Botnen, H.,et al. Fluctuations of zooplankton taxa in ballast water during short-term and long-term ocean-going voyages. International Review of Hydrobiology.2000,85:597-608.
[23]白希尧,白敏冬,杨波等.外来有害生物入侵性传播灾害和治理方法研究.自然杂志.2002,24(4)：223-226.
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