中美出口绩效影响因素研究及对比分析
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摘要
始于美国次贷危机的全球金融风暴致使各国经济长期萎靡不振,复苏缓慢。如今,世界政治局势相对稳定,但经济形势却十分紧张。一国之内,同业企业激烈地争夺有限的资源和消费市场;国家之间,各出口厂商都在想方设法提高自身的市场份额、扩大出口范围,同时还要考虑如何与进口国同行企业展开较量。严峻的竞争形势加上经济危机的冲击,让众多贸易企业命悬一线,大量的外贸公司破产倒闭,导致失业率的普遍上升,各国政府被迫出面干预,进行宏观调控和其他贸易保护措施。
贸易领域常用比较优势的概念来评判出口的实力和预测出口的前景,并以出口绩效作为标杆来测量出口活动的好坏。然而,目前尚没有全球统一的出口绩效评估标准和普遍适用的指标体系用于指导实证研究,但是这并不能削弱研究出口绩效决定因素的实际价值。出口绩效是果,影响因素是因,如果能够知其然且知其所以然,国家和企业在发展出口事业时就能有章可循、有据可依,就可以把主要精力放对重点,起到事半功倍的效果。
论文以宏观经济政治环境为背景,展示了中美两国以及一些主要发达和发展中国家的出口绩效现状,研究比较了决定中美两国出口绩效的主导因素。论文收集了大量的统计数据,并通过对国内外学者相关实证研究成果的研读,提出了六个相关假设,构建了一个包含四个实变量和四个虚拟变量的出口绩效决定性模型。此外,论文从三个方面着重分析和比较了中美两国近年经济和贸易的状况,为解释回归结论奠定了基础。论文运用最小二乘估计的方法对时间序列数据(1973-2008年)进行了分析和相关检验,在对回归结果进行了逐条分析和解释的同时,比较了中美两国回归结果的差异和原因,最后证明了中美两国的出口绩效与本国经济发展状况以及出口导向和优惠政策存在紧密的联系。
In the first decade of 21st century, we have experienced a lot of trouble and disaster, such as the earthquake and the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis. As a result, the economy of most countries in the world has gone to a long term recession. It is recovering recently, but very slow. The current global political situation is relatively stable, but the economic situation is serious. Commercial war may exist domestically as well as internationally.
It is hard to evaluate the affect precisely but we use comparative advantage to show one’s superiority in trade activities. Likewise, we use export performance to estimate weather the export activity is good or not. It is important to know what factors can influence the performance, since they might be the key to improve export achievements.
This paper sets out the main determinants of export performances in China and the USA using time-series data for the period 1973 to 2008. Based on the findings of previous research, an innovative linear model, including four common variables as well as four dummy variables, was built to analyze the relationships between selected factors and the performances of export. In order to figure out any possible casual relationships, OLS and relative tests were applied to analyze the basic regression model. Besides, a number of comparisons of data characteristics between China and the USA as well as illustrations of the current economic and export situation were offered, which provided an important background to explain the findings. Our empirical results suggest that changes in the growth rate of GDP were closely related to changes in the performances of exports for both countries. In other words, the expansion of GDP is positively associated with the development in exports. Moreover, the domestic export stimulate policy will also lead a better performance.
贸易领域常用比较优势的概念来评判出口的实力和预测出口的前景,并以出口绩效作为标杆来测量出口活动的好坏。然而,目前尚没有全球统一的出口绩效评估标准和普遍适用的指标体系用于指导实证研究,但是这并不能削弱研究出口绩效决定因素的实际价值。出口绩效是果,影响因素是因,如果能够知其然且知其所以然,国家和企业在发展出口事业时就能有章可循、有据可依,就可以把主要精力放对重点,起到事半功倍的效果。
论文以宏观经济政治环境为背景,展示了中美两国以及一些主要发达和发展中国家的出口绩效现状,研究比较了决定中美两国出口绩效的主导因素。论文收集了大量的统计数据,并通过对国内外学者相关实证研究成果的研读,提出了六个相关假设,构建了一个包含四个实变量和四个虚拟变量的出口绩效决定性模型。此外,论文从三个方面着重分析和比较了中美两国近年经济和贸易的状况,为解释回归结论奠定了基础。论文运用最小二乘估计的方法对时间序列数据(1973-2008年)进行了分析和相关检验,在对回归结果进行了逐条分析和解释的同时,比较了中美两国回归结果的差异和原因,最后证明了中美两国的出口绩效与本国经济发展状况以及出口导向和优惠政策存在紧密的联系。
In the first decade of 21st century, we have experienced a lot of trouble and disaster, such as the earthquake and the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis. As a result, the economy of most countries in the world has gone to a long term recession. It is recovering recently, but very slow. The current global political situation is relatively stable, but the economic situation is serious. Commercial war may exist domestically as well as internationally.
It is hard to evaluate the affect precisely but we use comparative advantage to show one’s superiority in trade activities. Likewise, we use export performance to estimate weather the export activity is good or not. It is important to know what factors can influence the performance, since they might be the key to improve export achievements.
This paper sets out the main determinants of export performances in China and the USA using time-series data for the period 1973 to 2008. Based on the findings of previous research, an innovative linear model, including four common variables as well as four dummy variables, was built to analyze the relationships between selected factors and the performances of export. In order to figure out any possible casual relationships, OLS and relative tests were applied to analyze the basic regression model. Besides, a number of comparisons of data characteristics between China and the USA as well as illustrations of the current economic and export situation were offered, which provided an important background to explain the findings. Our empirical results suggest that changes in the growth rate of GDP were closely related to changes in the performances of exports for both countries. In other words, the expansion of GDP is positively associated with the development in exports. Moreover, the domestic export stimulate policy will also lead a better performance.
引文
[1] DIAMANTOPOULOS A, INGLIS K. Identifying differences between high- and low-involvement exporters [J]. International Marketing Review, 1988, 5(2): 52-60.
[2] LIU X H, SHU C. Determinants of Export Performance: Evidence from Chinese Industries [J]. Economics of Planning, 2003, 36: 45–67.
[3] CAVUSGIL S T. Differences among exporting firms based on their degree of internationalization [J]. Journal of Business Research, 1984, 12(3): 195-208.
[4] KAYNAK E, EROL C. The export propensity of Turkish manufacturing and trading house firms [J]. Journal of Marketing Management, 1989, 5 (2): 211-29.
[5] ZOU S, STAN S. The determinants of export performance: a review of the empirical literature between 1987 and 1997[J]. International Marketing Review, 1998, 15(5): 333– 356.
[6] REID S D. Managerial and firm influences on export behavior [J]. Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science, 1983, 11: 323-32.
[7] CZINKOTA M R, JOHNSTON W J. Exporting: does sales volume make a difference? [J]. Journal of International Business Studies, 1983, 14: 147-53.
[8] COOPER R G, KLEINSCHMIDT E. The impact of export strategy on export sales performance [J]. Journal of International Business Studies, 1985, 16: 37-56.
[9] CAVUSGIL S T, NAOR J. Firm and management characteristics as discriminators of export marketing activity [J]. Journal of Business Research, 1987, 15 (3): 221-35.
[10] MADSEN T K. Successful export marketing management: some empirical evidence [J]. International Marketing Review, 1989, 6 (4): 41-57.
[11] CHRISTENSEN C H, DA R A, GERTNER R K. An empirical investigation of the factors influencing exporting success of Brazilian firms [J]. Journal of International Business Studies, 1987, 19: 61-77.
[12] CHETTY S K, Hamilton R T. Firm-level determinants of export performance: a metaanalysis [J]. International Marketing Review, 1993, 10(3): 26-34.
[13] CULPAN R. Export behavior of firms: relevance of firm size [J]. Journal of Business Research, 1989, 18(3): 207-218.
[14] GRIPSRUD G. The Determinants of Export Decisions and Attitudes to a Distant Market: Norwegian Fishery Exports to Japan [J]. Journal of International Business Studies, 1990, 21(3): 469-485.
[15] KAYNAK E, KUAN W K. Environment, strategy, structure, and performance in the context ofexport activity: an empirical study of Taiwanese manufacturing firms [J]. Journal of Business Research, 1993, 27: 33-49.
[16] KALDOR N. Strategic factors in economic development[M], Cornell University Press, 1967.
[17] MICLIAELY M. Exports and growth: An empirical investigation [J]. Journal of Development Economics, 1977, 4(1):49-54.
[18] KRUEGER A O. Alternative Trade Strategies and Employment in LDCs [J]. The American Economic Review, 1978, 68(2): 270-274.
[19] BILKEY W J. An Attempted Integration of the Literature on the Export Behavior of Firms [J]. Journal of International Business Studies, 1978, 9(1): 33-46.
[20] GREENAWAY D, SAPSFORD D. What does trade liberalization do for exports and growth? [J]. Review of World Economics, 1994, 131:152-74.
[21] POMPONIO X Z. A causality analysis of growth and export performance [J]. Atlantic Economic Journal, 1996, 24 (2):168-176.
[22] HATEMI A J, IRANDOUST M. Export Performance and Economic Growth Causality: An Empirical Analysis [J]. Atlantic Economic Journal, 2000, 28(4):412-426.
[23] KAYNAK E, KOTHARI V. Export behavior of small manufacturers: a comparative study of American and Canadian firms [J]. European Management Journal, 1984, 2: 41-7.
[24] KARAFAKIOGLU M. Export activities of Turkish manufacturers [J]. International Marketing Review, 1986, 3(4): 34-43.
[25] COOPER R G, KLEINSCHMIDT E. The impact of export strategy on export sales performance [J]. Journal of International Business Studies, 1985, 16: 37-56.
[26] KIRPALANI V, MACINTOSH N. International marketing efficiency of echnology-oriented small firms [J]. Journal of International Business Studies, 1980, 11: 81-90.
[27] DOMINQUEZ L V, SEQUEIRA C G. Determinants of LDC exporters’performance: a cross-national study [J]. Journal of International Business Studies, 1993, 24: 19-40.
[28] RANKIN N. How Do South African Exports Respond to Price and Exchange Rate Changes? An econometric Analysis of the Manufacturing Sector. Trade and Industrial Policy Strategies, 2002 Annual Forum at Glenburn Lodge, Muldersdrift, 2002.
[29]刘飞.中小出口企业营销资源与出口绩效的关系研究[P].浙江大学, 2005.
[30]汪蕾.中小企业社会资本,国外市场知识及出口绩效的关系研究[P].浙江大学, 2007.
[31]邵永发,贺广红.国际直接投资对中国出口效应的实证分析[J].武汉工程职业技术学院学报, 2004, 16(4): 61-65.
[32]孙霄翀,宋逢明.人民币汇率升值对我国贸易影响的评估[J].国际贸易问题, 2008, 1: 87-97.
[33]周露.企业吸收能力对其出口绩效影响的实证研究[J].企业技术开发, 2008, 27(12):46-48.
[34]许和连,赖明勇.人民币实际有效汇率与中国工业制成品对外贸易平衡的长期关系分析[J].商业研究, 2002: 8.
[35]隋月红,赵振华.出口贸易结构的形成机理:基于我国1980-2005年的经验研究[J].国际贸易问题, 2008, 3: 9-16.
[36]张婧.出口市场导向及其原因变量和绩效结果研究[J].兰州商学院学报, 2004,20(1): 18-21.
[37] BALASSA B. Exports and economic growth: Further evidence [J]. Journal of Development Eoiconomics, 1978, 5:181 -189.
[38] KATSIKEAS C S, PIERCY N F, IOANNIDIS C. Determinants of export performance in a European context [J]. European Journal of Marketing, 1996, 30(6): 6-35.
[39] DRAPER N. Export performance. CPB Report, 1999, 2:42-45.
[40] BALDAUF A, CRAVENS D W, WAGNER U. Examining determinants of export performance in small open economies[J]. Journal of World Business, 2000, 35(1):61-79.
[41]姚枝仲.中国出口绩效指数:近年来出口运行状况及展望[R].中国社会科学院国际金融研究中心, 2006.
[42] COCCARI, R.L. Alternative Models for Forecasting U. S. Exports [J] Journal of International Business Studies, 1978, 9 (1): 73-84.
[43]赵瑾.中美经济摩擦的焦点和主要问题[J].世界经济, 2004, 3: 17-21
[44] PERKINS, F.C. Export Performance and Enterprise Reform in China’s Coastal Provinces [J]. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 1997, 45(3): 501-539.
[45]达莫达尔·古亚拉提著.经济计量学精要[M].北京:机械工业出版社, 2000.
[2] LIU X H, SHU C. Determinants of Export Performance: Evidence from Chinese Industries [J]. Economics of Planning, 2003, 36: 45–67.
[3] CAVUSGIL S T. Differences among exporting firms based on their degree of internationalization [J]. Journal of Business Research, 1984, 12(3): 195-208.
[4] KAYNAK E, EROL C. The export propensity of Turkish manufacturing and trading house firms [J]. Journal of Marketing Management, 1989, 5 (2): 211-29.
[5] ZOU S, STAN S. The determinants of export performance: a review of the empirical literature between 1987 and 1997[J]. International Marketing Review, 1998, 15(5): 333– 356.
[6] REID S D. Managerial and firm influences on export behavior [J]. Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science, 1983, 11: 323-32.
[7] CZINKOTA M R, JOHNSTON W J. Exporting: does sales volume make a difference? [J]. Journal of International Business Studies, 1983, 14: 147-53.
[8] COOPER R G, KLEINSCHMIDT E. The impact of export strategy on export sales performance [J]. Journal of International Business Studies, 1985, 16: 37-56.
[9] CAVUSGIL S T, NAOR J. Firm and management characteristics as discriminators of export marketing activity [J]. Journal of Business Research, 1987, 15 (3): 221-35.
[10] MADSEN T K. Successful export marketing management: some empirical evidence [J]. International Marketing Review, 1989, 6 (4): 41-57.
[11] CHRISTENSEN C H, DA R A, GERTNER R K. An empirical investigation of the factors influencing exporting success of Brazilian firms [J]. Journal of International Business Studies, 1987, 19: 61-77.
[12] CHETTY S K, Hamilton R T. Firm-level determinants of export performance: a metaanalysis [J]. International Marketing Review, 1993, 10(3): 26-34.
[13] CULPAN R. Export behavior of firms: relevance of firm size [J]. Journal of Business Research, 1989, 18(3): 207-218.
[14] GRIPSRUD G. The Determinants of Export Decisions and Attitudes to a Distant Market: Norwegian Fishery Exports to Japan [J]. Journal of International Business Studies, 1990, 21(3): 469-485.
[15] KAYNAK E, KUAN W K. Environment, strategy, structure, and performance in the context ofexport activity: an empirical study of Taiwanese manufacturing firms [J]. Journal of Business Research, 1993, 27: 33-49.
[16] KALDOR N. Strategic factors in economic development[M], Cornell University Press, 1967.
[17] MICLIAELY M. Exports and growth: An empirical investigation [J]. Journal of Development Economics, 1977, 4(1):49-54.
[18] KRUEGER A O. Alternative Trade Strategies and Employment in LDCs [J]. The American Economic Review, 1978, 68(2): 270-274.
[19] BILKEY W J. An Attempted Integration of the Literature on the Export Behavior of Firms [J]. Journal of International Business Studies, 1978, 9(1): 33-46.
[20] GREENAWAY D, SAPSFORD D. What does trade liberalization do for exports and growth? [J]. Review of World Economics, 1994, 131:152-74.
[21] POMPONIO X Z. A causality analysis of growth and export performance [J]. Atlantic Economic Journal, 1996, 24 (2):168-176.
[22] HATEMI A J, IRANDOUST M. Export Performance and Economic Growth Causality: An Empirical Analysis [J]. Atlantic Economic Journal, 2000, 28(4):412-426.
[23] KAYNAK E, KOTHARI V. Export behavior of small manufacturers: a comparative study of American and Canadian firms [J]. European Management Journal, 1984, 2: 41-7.
[24] KARAFAKIOGLU M. Export activities of Turkish manufacturers [J]. International Marketing Review, 1986, 3(4): 34-43.
[25] COOPER R G, KLEINSCHMIDT E. The impact of export strategy on export sales performance [J]. Journal of International Business Studies, 1985, 16: 37-56.
[26] KIRPALANI V, MACINTOSH N. International marketing efficiency of echnology-oriented small firms [J]. Journal of International Business Studies, 1980, 11: 81-90.
[27] DOMINQUEZ L V, SEQUEIRA C G. Determinants of LDC exporters’performance: a cross-national study [J]. Journal of International Business Studies, 1993, 24: 19-40.
[28] RANKIN N. How Do South African Exports Respond to Price and Exchange Rate Changes? An econometric Analysis of the Manufacturing Sector. Trade and Industrial Policy Strategies, 2002 Annual Forum at Glenburn Lodge, Muldersdrift, 2002.
[29]刘飞.中小出口企业营销资源与出口绩效的关系研究[P].浙江大学, 2005.
[30]汪蕾.中小企业社会资本,国外市场知识及出口绩效的关系研究[P].浙江大学, 2007.
[31]邵永发,贺广红.国际直接投资对中国出口效应的实证分析[J].武汉工程职业技术学院学报, 2004, 16(4): 61-65.
[32]孙霄翀,宋逢明.人民币汇率升值对我国贸易影响的评估[J].国际贸易问题, 2008, 1: 87-97.
[33]周露.企业吸收能力对其出口绩效影响的实证研究[J].企业技术开发, 2008, 27(12):46-48.
[34]许和连,赖明勇.人民币实际有效汇率与中国工业制成品对外贸易平衡的长期关系分析[J].商业研究, 2002: 8.
[35]隋月红,赵振华.出口贸易结构的形成机理:基于我国1980-2005年的经验研究[J].国际贸易问题, 2008, 3: 9-16.
[36]张婧.出口市场导向及其原因变量和绩效结果研究[J].兰州商学院学报, 2004,20(1): 18-21.
[37] BALASSA B. Exports and economic growth: Further evidence [J]. Journal of Development Eoiconomics, 1978, 5:181 -189.
[38] KATSIKEAS C S, PIERCY N F, IOANNIDIS C. Determinants of export performance in a European context [J]. European Journal of Marketing, 1996, 30(6): 6-35.
[39] DRAPER N. Export performance. CPB Report, 1999, 2:42-45.
[40] BALDAUF A, CRAVENS D W, WAGNER U. Examining determinants of export performance in small open economies[J]. Journal of World Business, 2000, 35(1):61-79.
[41]姚枝仲.中国出口绩效指数:近年来出口运行状况及展望[R].中国社会科学院国际金融研究中心, 2006.
[42] COCCARI, R.L. Alternative Models for Forecasting U. S. Exports [J] Journal of International Business Studies, 1978, 9 (1): 73-84.
[43]赵瑾.中美经济摩擦的焦点和主要问题[J].世界经济, 2004, 3: 17-21
[44] PERKINS, F.C. Export Performance and Enterprise Reform in China’s Coastal Provinces [J]. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 1997, 45(3): 501-539.
[45]达莫达尔·古亚拉提著.经济计量学精要[M].北京:机械工业出版社, 2000.