中国“双顺差”的可维持性及改善对策研究
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摘要
随着全球经济一体化程度的加深,世界各国经济的联系越来越紧密,各国也因此面临着开放带来的机遇和挑战。国际收支作为反映一国对外经济交易和经济开放发展战略及政策的最完整记录,值得更多的关注和更加深入的研究。
20世纪90年代以来,我国国民经济迅速发展,经常账户顺差和资本与金融账户顺差规模连年巨额增加,带来我国国际储备大幅度增长,提高政府的国际清偿力,促进我国经济发展,提高人民生活水平等等一系列好处。但也因此致使我国遭受贸易摩擦增多、进口资源依存度提、贸易条件恶化等一系列不可避免的问题。我国“双顺差”的收支结构是否可维持,在哪个阶段可维持,在哪个阶段不可维持,不可维持时应该如何应对的问题,一直缠绕着中国政界和学术界。
以往的国际收支研究从总体情况出发,忽略了国际收支结构性问题。本文拟从国际收支理论忽略的结构入手,分五章来分析我国“双顺差”的可维持性及改善对策。第一章是绪论。第一节分析了选题背景及研究意义,指出我国“双顺差”短期内(5至10年)可维持,只是“双顺差”的内部结构随着我国经济的发展会有所变动:货物贸易顺差规模将缓慢下降,服务贸易逆差规模将下降甚至转为小额顺差,投资收益逆差规模还将小幅上升,外商直接投资规模有所下降但仍然保持顺差,证券投资和其他投资逆差规模下降;长期内我国“双顺差”不可维持。第二节详细叙述了本文的研究方法和主要内容。第三节从六个方面提出本文的创新点。第二章是相关理论综述,第一节、第二节分别界定国际收支结构及国际收支机构可维持性概念,并提出国际收支结构可维持性分为国际收支机构短期可维持性和国际收支机构长期可维持性。第三节在界定“双顺差”概念的基础上述评了相关理论。第三章对我国“双顺差”的现状进行了分析。第一节,从结构入手,分析了各一级账户及次级账户之间的关系。第二节、第三节、第四节运用图表分析法分别从我国国际收支及外汇储备的总体情况、经常账户结构情况、资本与金融账户结构情况三方面详细概括我国“双顺差”的状况。第四章是分析我国“双顺差”的可维持性。第一节给出了“双顺差”可维持模型。第二节在该模型的基础上从经常账户和资本与金融账户两个角度实证分析了我国“双顺差”短期可维持。第三节结合该模型以及维持“双顺差”基础薄弱、维持“双顺差”代价巨大分析了我国“双顺差”长期不可维持。第五章,从国际收支调节政策、外贸外资政策、产业政策三方面提出实现我国国际收支结构长期可维持性对策,并着重强调促进产业结构升级、转变经济增长方式、扩大内需的政策措施。
Along with the global economic integration degree deepening, the various countries economy relation is more and more tight. Therefore, the various countries are also facing the opportunity and the challenge what the opening brings. The international payment balance is most complete record that reflected a country foreign economical transaction and the economical opening developmental strategy and the policy, and is worth more attention and more thorough research.
Since 1990s, our country national economy rapidly develop, the checking account favorable balance and the capital and the financial account favorable balance’s scale has increased in large amount for successive years, which brings our country international reserve in large scale growth, enhances the government internationally to pay off the strength, promotes our country economy to develop, raises the lives of the people level and so on a series of advantage. But which also causes our country to suffer the trade friction to increase, the import resources degree of dependency raises, the trade condition worsening and so on a series of inevitable questions. The double favorable balance of our country is whether the revenue and expenditure structure can maintain, which stage can maintain, which stage can't maintain, and how to deal with the question, is twining Chinese Political circle and the academic circles continuously.
The former international payment balance research embarked from the overall situation, but has neglected the international payment balance constitutive question. This article draws up from international payment balance theory neglecting structure obtaining, and divides five chapters that analyze the double favorable balance of our country may maintain and the improvement countermeasure. First chapter is the introduction. First section has analyzed the selected topic background and the research significance, pointed out the double favorable balance of our country in the short-term (5 to 10 years) may maintain, and the internal structure of double favorable balance can have the change along with our country economy development: The cargo trade surplus scale will be slow drops, the service trade deficit scale will drop even transfers the jot favorable balance, the investment income trade deficit scale also rises the small scale, but the foreign direct investment scale had the drop still to maintain the favorable balance, the negotiable securities investment and other investment trade deficit scale drops; Long-term the double favorable balance of our country cannot maintain. Second section narrated this article research technique and the primary coverage in detail. Third section proposes this article innovation spot from six aspects. Second chapter is the summary of correlation theories. First, second limits the concept of international payment balance structure and the international payment balance organization’s maintenance separately, and proposed the international payment balance structure’s maintenance divides into the international payment balance organization in short-term to be possible to maintain and the international payment balance organization may maintain for a long time. Third section was limiting the double favorable balance and in the concept foundation commenting correlation theories. Third chapter to double favorable balance of the present situation has carried on the analysis. First section, from structure obtaining, has analyzed between various levels account and the secondary account relations. Second section, third, fourth using the graph analytic method separately from our country international payment balance and the foreign exchange reserve overall situation, the checking account structure situation, the capital and the financial account structure situation three aspects summarizes the condition of the double favorable balance in detail. Fourth chapter analyzes that the double favorable balance may maintain. First section gave the model of double favorable balance to be possible to maintain. Second section analyzed our country in this model foundation from the checking account and the capital and the financial account diagnoses the double favorable balance to be possible to maintain in the short-term. The third tubercle from the model as well as the maintenance of the double favorable balance’s the weak foundation, and the maintenance of the double favorable balance’s the price greatly analyzes the double favorable balance not to be possible to maintain for a long time. Fifth chapter, from the three facts of the international payment balance adjustment policy, the foreign trade foreign capital policy, and the industrial policy, realizes our country international payment balance structure to be possible to maintain the countermeasure for a long time, and emphasized emphatically the promotion industrial structure promoted the special operational policy measures, the transformation of economy growth way, the expansion needs.
20世纪90年代以来,我国国民经济迅速发展,经常账户顺差和资本与金融账户顺差规模连年巨额增加,带来我国国际储备大幅度增长,提高政府的国际清偿力,促进我国经济发展,提高人民生活水平等等一系列好处。但也因此致使我国遭受贸易摩擦增多、进口资源依存度提、贸易条件恶化等一系列不可避免的问题。我国“双顺差”的收支结构是否可维持,在哪个阶段可维持,在哪个阶段不可维持,不可维持时应该如何应对的问题,一直缠绕着中国政界和学术界。
以往的国际收支研究从总体情况出发,忽略了国际收支结构性问题。本文拟从国际收支理论忽略的结构入手,分五章来分析我国“双顺差”的可维持性及改善对策。第一章是绪论。第一节分析了选题背景及研究意义,指出我国“双顺差”短期内(5至10年)可维持,只是“双顺差”的内部结构随着我国经济的发展会有所变动:货物贸易顺差规模将缓慢下降,服务贸易逆差规模将下降甚至转为小额顺差,投资收益逆差规模还将小幅上升,外商直接投资规模有所下降但仍然保持顺差,证券投资和其他投资逆差规模下降;长期内我国“双顺差”不可维持。第二节详细叙述了本文的研究方法和主要内容。第三节从六个方面提出本文的创新点。第二章是相关理论综述,第一节、第二节分别界定国际收支结构及国际收支机构可维持性概念,并提出国际收支结构可维持性分为国际收支机构短期可维持性和国际收支机构长期可维持性。第三节在界定“双顺差”概念的基础上述评了相关理论。第三章对我国“双顺差”的现状进行了分析。第一节,从结构入手,分析了各一级账户及次级账户之间的关系。第二节、第三节、第四节运用图表分析法分别从我国国际收支及外汇储备的总体情况、经常账户结构情况、资本与金融账户结构情况三方面详细概括我国“双顺差”的状况。第四章是分析我国“双顺差”的可维持性。第一节给出了“双顺差”可维持模型。第二节在该模型的基础上从经常账户和资本与金融账户两个角度实证分析了我国“双顺差”短期可维持。第三节结合该模型以及维持“双顺差”基础薄弱、维持“双顺差”代价巨大分析了我国“双顺差”长期不可维持。第五章,从国际收支调节政策、外贸外资政策、产业政策三方面提出实现我国国际收支结构长期可维持性对策,并着重强调促进产业结构升级、转变经济增长方式、扩大内需的政策措施。
Along with the global economic integration degree deepening, the various countries economy relation is more and more tight. Therefore, the various countries are also facing the opportunity and the challenge what the opening brings. The international payment balance is most complete record that reflected a country foreign economical transaction and the economical opening developmental strategy and the policy, and is worth more attention and more thorough research.
Since 1990s, our country national economy rapidly develop, the checking account favorable balance and the capital and the financial account favorable balance’s scale has increased in large amount for successive years, which brings our country international reserve in large scale growth, enhances the government internationally to pay off the strength, promotes our country economy to develop, raises the lives of the people level and so on a series of advantage. But which also causes our country to suffer the trade friction to increase, the import resources degree of dependency raises, the trade condition worsening and so on a series of inevitable questions. The double favorable balance of our country is whether the revenue and expenditure structure can maintain, which stage can maintain, which stage can't maintain, and how to deal with the question, is twining Chinese Political circle and the academic circles continuously.
The former international payment balance research embarked from the overall situation, but has neglected the international payment balance constitutive question. This article draws up from international payment balance theory neglecting structure obtaining, and divides five chapters that analyze the double favorable balance of our country may maintain and the improvement countermeasure. First chapter is the introduction. First section has analyzed the selected topic background and the research significance, pointed out the double favorable balance of our country in the short-term (5 to 10 years) may maintain, and the internal structure of double favorable balance can have the change along with our country economy development: The cargo trade surplus scale will be slow drops, the service trade deficit scale will drop even transfers the jot favorable balance, the investment income trade deficit scale also rises the small scale, but the foreign direct investment scale had the drop still to maintain the favorable balance, the negotiable securities investment and other investment trade deficit scale drops; Long-term the double favorable balance of our country cannot maintain. Second section narrated this article research technique and the primary coverage in detail. Third section proposes this article innovation spot from six aspects. Second chapter is the summary of correlation theories. First, second limits the concept of international payment balance structure and the international payment balance organization’s maintenance separately, and proposed the international payment balance structure’s maintenance divides into the international payment balance organization in short-term to be possible to maintain and the international payment balance organization may maintain for a long time. Third section was limiting the double favorable balance and in the concept foundation commenting correlation theories. Third chapter to double favorable balance of the present situation has carried on the analysis. First section, from structure obtaining, has analyzed between various levels account and the secondary account relations. Second section, third, fourth using the graph analytic method separately from our country international payment balance and the foreign exchange reserve overall situation, the checking account structure situation, the capital and the financial account structure situation three aspects summarizes the condition of the double favorable balance in detail. Fourth chapter analyzes that the double favorable balance may maintain. First section gave the model of double favorable balance to be possible to maintain. Second section analyzed our country in this model foundation from the checking account and the capital and the financial account diagnoses the double favorable balance to be possible to maintain in the short-term. The third tubercle from the model as well as the maintenance of the double favorable balance’s the weak foundation, and the maintenance of the double favorable balance’s the price greatly analyzes the double favorable balance not to be possible to maintain for a long time. Fifth chapter, from the three facts of the international payment balance adjustment policy, the foreign trade foreign capital policy, and the industrial policy, realizes our country international payment balance structure to be possible to maintain the countermeasure for a long time, and emphasized emphatically the promotion industrial structure promoted the special operational policy measures, the transformation of economy growth way, the expansion needs.
引文
①王晓畅.我国的国际收支结构分析及政策思考[D].大连:东北财经大学.2005.
①姜波克(1999)在提出资本账户开放的八大条件时,首次提到了可维持的国际收支结构,但还没有明确提出国际收支结构可维持性概念。[8]直到在《资本账户开放研究:一种基于内外均衡的分析框架》一文中,姜波克、朱云高(2004)首次明确提出了“国际收支结构可维持性”概念,从短期来看,是指经济和金融体系在适当的宏观经济政策下,可以承受、消化和扭转大规模短期资金的逆向流动,从而使国际收支免遭重大影响,经济保持稳定增长。从长期来看,是指在不危及内部均衡的条件下,一项账户的差额可以被另一项账户的反差额所弥补,即国际收支能保持当期均衡;或一个时期的国际收支差额可以被另一个时期的反差额所弥补,即国际收支能保持跨期均衡。[9]
②许建挺(2004)认为在今后的5-10年内,中国的贸易顺差仍可维持,货物收支顺差与服务收支逆差的平衡关系将依然存在,投资收益逆差有可能趋于缩小,这样总的经常账户顺差仍有持续性,因而也不会产生国际收支危机问题。[26]
③朱云高.论资本账户开放和国际收支结构可维持性[D].上海:复旦大学.2005.
④肖崎.中国“双顺差”结构的可维持性分析[J].亚太经济.2006,(3).
①唐建伟(2007)[21]、余永定(2009)[29]、姜波克(2004)[9]等,结合我国国际收支账户差额的数据,利用图表方法分析我国“双顺差”由来已久,其规模在不断地扩大当中。
①裴平,孙兆斌(2006)建议:提高涉外经济政策的对称性,调整出口税负及相关激励政策,实施出口政策的国民待遇和积极的进口政策,强化对货币错配的管理。[19]彭兴韵(2006)建议:改革现行的结售汇制度,实施意愿结售汇制度。[20]
②卢孔标(2006)指出亚洲国家应当增加相互间的合作来应对这一区域问题,完善区域合作协调机制,形成在全球经济协商中的一致声音,加强区域货币合作。[15]
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①姜波克(1999)在提出资本账户开放的八大条件时,首次提到了可维持的国际收支结构,但还没有明确提出国际收支结构可维持性概念。[8]直到在《资本账户开放研究:一种基于内外均衡的分析框架》一文中,姜波克、朱云高(2004)首次明确提出了“国际收支结构可维持性”概念,从短期来看,是指经济和金融体系在适当的宏观经济政策下,可以承受、消化和扭转大规模短期资金的逆向流动,从而使国际收支免遭重大影响,经济保持稳定增长。从长期来看,是指在不危及内部均衡的条件下,一项账户的差额可以被另一项账户的反差额所弥补,即国际收支能保持当期均衡;或一个时期的国际收支差额可以被另一个时期的反差额所弥补,即国际收支能保持跨期均衡。[9]
②许建挺(2004)认为在今后的5-10年内,中国的贸易顺差仍可维持,货物收支顺差与服务收支逆差的平衡关系将依然存在,投资收益逆差有可能趋于缩小,这样总的经常账户顺差仍有持续性,因而也不会产生国际收支危机问题。[26]
③朱云高.论资本账户开放和国际收支结构可维持性[D].上海:复旦大学.2005.
④肖崎.中国“双顺差”结构的可维持性分析[J].亚太经济.2006,(3).
①唐建伟(2007)[21]、余永定(2009)[29]、姜波克(2004)[9]等,结合我国国际收支账户差额的数据,利用图表方法分析我国“双顺差”由来已久,其规模在不断地扩大当中。
①裴平,孙兆斌(2006)建议:提高涉外经济政策的对称性,调整出口税负及相关激励政策,实施出口政策的国民待遇和积极的进口政策,强化对货币错配的管理。[19]彭兴韵(2006)建议:改革现行的结售汇制度,实施意愿结售汇制度。[20]
②卢孔标(2006)指出亚洲国家应当增加相互间的合作来应对这一区域问题,完善区域合作协调机制,形成在全球经济协商中的一致声音,加强区域货币合作。[15]
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