3M公司汽车相关新产品扩散模型及库存优化
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摘要
为了满足中国汽车市场快速增长带来的巨大市场需求,3M公司将新产品研发和推广作为增强和稳固市场领导地位的重要手段,这给库存控制提出了挑战:准确的需求分析是基础;在生产能力确定的前提下如何减少库存成本。因此,基于3M企业自身特点,找到解决上述问题的方法,是本文的研究目的。
首先,基于BASS模型理论在相同营销渠道、相同市场推广体系及相同库存管理方法下同类产品具有相同市场扩散特性,通过对已有产品销售数据的数学抽象,可推知新产品市场扩散特性。本文对公司55种汽车相关产品数据拟和,运用非线性最小二乘法完成计算。分析发现,不同类别产品P、Q值具有不同分布特性,反映不同产品之间客户、渠道、市场策略的不同。从而基于P、Q值进行归类,运用于新产品预测。
然后,将BASS模型的预测作为输入函数,运用动态规划方法,对每期的控制方案进行寻优,从总体上得到最优解。包括三个步骤:1.根据3M公司库存管理特点,得到动态规划数学模型。2.将库存运营过程转化为可用于动态规划的网络图。3.将动态规划网络图在EXCEL中实现。通过算例分析,不仅验证了计算的有效性,更针对不同成本分布特性得到了具体的库存控制方法。
通过以上两方面研究,本文得到了运用于3M汽车相关新产品库存优化控制的理论模型及相应计算方法,并在EXCEL中实现。
In order to catch the booming demand in Chinese automotive market and maintain stable marketing share, 3M keeps dedicating to new product development. It challenges the supply chain making more accurate forecast and getting the low cost solutions at certain manufacturing capability. The target of this thesis is to find ways with 3M characteristics.
Firstly, based on Bass model, the innovation factor and diffusion factor are obtained respectively with the nonlinear least square regression from the historical 55 kinds of automobile products sales data of 3M, which shows the inclination of different product series. Using these factors, the future sales volume can be predicted for new products.
Then, using the dynamic programming method, and with Bass model forecast as the input function, the production control points of each time scale is obtained, which can contribute the lowest inventory cost. It includes 3 steps: 1) Get dynamic programming mathematics model base on 3M inventory control metrics; 2) Draw production planning matrix maps; and 3) Work out the optimized result in Excel file. By the analysis of 5 examples, not only the calculation process is validated, but also the detailed inventory control method of different cost structure is mapped out.
By the research of these two facets, this thesis figures out the academic model and calculating method which can be used for inventory control process of automobile products in 3M company.
首先,基于BASS模型理论在相同营销渠道、相同市场推广体系及相同库存管理方法下同类产品具有相同市场扩散特性,通过对已有产品销售数据的数学抽象,可推知新产品市场扩散特性。本文对公司55种汽车相关产品数据拟和,运用非线性最小二乘法完成计算。分析发现,不同类别产品P、Q值具有不同分布特性,反映不同产品之间客户、渠道、市场策略的不同。从而基于P、Q值进行归类,运用于新产品预测。
然后,将BASS模型的预测作为输入函数,运用动态规划方法,对每期的控制方案进行寻优,从总体上得到最优解。包括三个步骤:1.根据3M公司库存管理特点,得到动态规划数学模型。2.将库存运营过程转化为可用于动态规划的网络图。3.将动态规划网络图在EXCEL中实现。通过算例分析,不仅验证了计算的有效性,更针对不同成本分布特性得到了具体的库存控制方法。
通过以上两方面研究,本文得到了运用于3M汽车相关新产品库存优化控制的理论模型及相应计算方法,并在EXCEL中实现。
In order to catch the booming demand in Chinese automotive market and maintain stable marketing share, 3M keeps dedicating to new product development. It challenges the supply chain making more accurate forecast and getting the low cost solutions at certain manufacturing capability. The target of this thesis is to find ways with 3M characteristics.
Firstly, based on Bass model, the innovation factor and diffusion factor are obtained respectively with the nonlinear least square regression from the historical 55 kinds of automobile products sales data of 3M, which shows the inclination of different product series. Using these factors, the future sales volume can be predicted for new products.
Then, using the dynamic programming method, and with Bass model forecast as the input function, the production control points of each time scale is obtained, which can contribute the lowest inventory cost. It includes 3 steps: 1) Get dynamic programming mathematics model base on 3M inventory control metrics; 2) Draw production planning matrix maps; and 3) Work out the optimized result in Excel file. By the analysis of 5 examples, not only the calculation process is validated, but also the detailed inventory control method of different cost structure is mapped out.
By the research of these two facets, this thesis figures out the academic model and calculating method which can be used for inventory control process of automobile products in 3M company.
引文
[1]宋海荣,简学琴,营销中的新产品基本扩散模型,沈阳工程学院学报,2007(3),50-52
[2]盛亚,吴健中,张志强,新产品市场扩散模型研究,外国经济与管理,1999(1),16-20
[3]刘超,董景荣,新产品市场扩散模型综述,统计与决策,2007(2),124-128
[4]盛亚,吴健中,新产品市场扩散BASS模型族的研究,预测,1999(2),71-74
[5]易余胤,盛昭瀚,新产品市场扩散的演化分析,预测,2003(2),55-59
[6] Norton, J.A and Bass, F.M. A Diffusion Theory Model of Adoption and Substitution for Successive Generations of High-Technology Products, Management Science,1987,33: 1069-1086
[7]官建成,创新扩散模型的研究进展与展望(上),科学与科学技术管理,1995,16(12),14-18
[8]官建成,创新扩散模型的研究进展与展望(下),科学与科学技术管理,1996,17(1),45-49
[9] Daisuke Satoh,A Discrete Bass Model and Its Parameter Estimation, Journal of the Operations Research Society of Japan,2001,44:1-18
[10]杨杰,非平稳需求库存控制策略研究,[博士学位论文],中国科学技术大学,合肥,2007
[11]胡知能,创新产品市场扩散模型及其应用,[博士学位论文],四川大学,成都,2005
[12]胡知能、徐玖平,创新产品扩散的多阶段动态模型,系统工程理论与实践,2005(4),15-21
[13] Debabrata Talukdar, K Sudhir, Andrew Ainslie, Investigating new product diffusion across products and countries, 2002
[14] Vijay Mahajan, Robert A. Peterson, Models for Innovation Diffusion[M], Sage University Paper Series on Quantitative Applications in the Social Sciences, Beverly Hills and London: Sage Pubns,1985
[15] Paul R.Steffens, A model of multiple unit ownership as a diffusion process [J]. Technological Forecasting & Social Change,2003,70:901-917
[16] James T C, Teng, Varun Gover, Wolfgang Gutler. Information Technology Innovations: General Diffusion Patterns and its Relationships to Innovation Characteristics[J], IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management,2002,49(1):13-27
[17] Dodson J A, Muller E. Models for New Product Diffusion through Advertising and Word of Mouth[J], Management Science,1978,24:1568-1578
[18] Silverberg G, Dosi G, Orsenigo L. Innovation, diversity and diffusion: A self-organizing model [J]. The Economics of Innovation, 1988,94:68-104
[19]杨敬辉,Bass模型及其两种扩展型的应用研究,[博士学位论文],大连理工大学,大连,2005
[20]徐微,肖庭廷,新产品扩散模型参数估计的稳定算法,高等学校计算数学学报,2005(S1)
[21]王秀峰,江红涛,程冰编著,数据分析与科学绘图软件ORIGIN详解,化学工业出版社,北京,2008
[22]吴育华,杜刚编著,管理科学基础,天津大学出版社,天津,2001
[23]运筹学教材编写组,运筹学,清华大学出版社,北京,2005
[24]余福茂肖亮编著,动态物流联盟系统规划技术研究,航空工业出版社,北京,2005
[25] (美)温斯顿,李乃文崔群法林细财周辉译,运筹学概率模型应用范例与解法,清华大学出版社,北京,2006
[2]盛亚,吴健中,张志强,新产品市场扩散模型研究,外国经济与管理,1999(1),16-20
[3]刘超,董景荣,新产品市场扩散模型综述,统计与决策,2007(2),124-128
[4]盛亚,吴健中,新产品市场扩散BASS模型族的研究,预测,1999(2),71-74
[5]易余胤,盛昭瀚,新产品市场扩散的演化分析,预测,2003(2),55-59
[6] Norton, J.A and Bass, F.M. A Diffusion Theory Model of Adoption and Substitution for Successive Generations of High-Technology Products, Management Science,1987,33: 1069-1086
[7]官建成,创新扩散模型的研究进展与展望(上),科学与科学技术管理,1995,16(12),14-18
[8]官建成,创新扩散模型的研究进展与展望(下),科学与科学技术管理,1996,17(1),45-49
[9] Daisuke Satoh,A Discrete Bass Model and Its Parameter Estimation, Journal of the Operations Research Society of Japan,2001,44:1-18
[10]杨杰,非平稳需求库存控制策略研究,[博士学位论文],中国科学技术大学,合肥,2007
[11]胡知能,创新产品市场扩散模型及其应用,[博士学位论文],四川大学,成都,2005
[12]胡知能、徐玖平,创新产品扩散的多阶段动态模型,系统工程理论与实践,2005(4),15-21
[13] Debabrata Talukdar, K Sudhir, Andrew Ainslie, Investigating new product diffusion across products and countries, 2002
[14] Vijay Mahajan, Robert A. Peterson, Models for Innovation Diffusion[M], Sage University Paper Series on Quantitative Applications in the Social Sciences, Beverly Hills and London: Sage Pubns,1985
[15] Paul R.Steffens, A model of multiple unit ownership as a diffusion process [J]. Technological Forecasting & Social Change,2003,70:901-917
[16] James T C, Teng, Varun Gover, Wolfgang Gutler. Information Technology Innovations: General Diffusion Patterns and its Relationships to Innovation Characteristics[J], IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management,2002,49(1):13-27
[17] Dodson J A, Muller E. Models for New Product Diffusion through Advertising and Word of Mouth[J], Management Science,1978,24:1568-1578
[18] Silverberg G, Dosi G, Orsenigo L. Innovation, diversity and diffusion: A self-organizing model [J]. The Economics of Innovation, 1988,94:68-104
[19]杨敬辉,Bass模型及其两种扩展型的应用研究,[博士学位论文],大连理工大学,大连,2005
[20]徐微,肖庭廷,新产品扩散模型参数估计的稳定算法,高等学校计算数学学报,2005(S1)
[21]王秀峰,江红涛,程冰编著,数据分析与科学绘图软件ORIGIN详解,化学工业出版社,北京,2008
[22]吴育华,杜刚编著,管理科学基础,天津大学出版社,天津,2001
[23]运筹学教材编写组,运筹学,清华大学出版社,北京,2005
[24]余福茂肖亮编著,动态物流联盟系统规划技术研究,航空工业出版社,北京,2005
[25] (美)温斯顿,李乃文崔群法林细财周辉译,运筹学概率模型应用范例与解法,清华大学出版社,北京,2006