农村信用社信用风险管理研究
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摘要
农村信用社在近几年的改革进程中,化解了大量不良资产,取得了不少的阶段性成果,但离农村信用社改革的目标还很遥远。
农村信用社改革的终极目的是构建服务于农业、农村、农民的金融服务体系,目前的改革进展与趋势在产权制度安排、管理体制与组织机制设计、利益分享等方面还未达成共识,改革还在推进中。诚然,农村信用社股份制改革模式有可能出现背离服务“三农”的倾向,中央与地方政府双层管理可能面临地方财政风险和道德风险问题,省级信用合作联社可能不宜代行政府管理职能,农村信用社分红水平过高可能会导致管理层与一般社员的角色冲突。这些诸多问题都要在改革中解决。
本文通过对农村信用社信用风险管理一般原则、管理方法、相关理论和信用社信用风险管理的案例进行分析,探讨我国农信社信用风险管理的发展方向和基本方法。
在对农信社信用风险管理现状的分析上,本文得到:目前农村信用社的风险管理(信用风险、市场风险、操作风险)问题还尤为突出,特别是在农村信用社的信用风险管理方面,农村信用社的风险防控能力十分低下,信用风险控制和管理技术落后,风险识别能力低,定量分析少,基本上以简单的定性分析为主,信用风险的管理无组织保证,更未形成信用风险管理的良好文化。
从信用风险识别的角度,总结了西方银行信用风险的识别方法,发现我国农村信用社和商业银行的贷前、贷后的信用风险识别存在诸多问题,因此在改进我国农村信用社信用风险识别方面提出有益建议,主要包括:构建严格的责任追究制;建立以风险为核心的考核体系;改革目前信贷尽职调查方式,建立统一的定性分析与定量分析相结合的尽职调查模式;全面实施贷款的五级分类方法。
在信用风险的度量方面,我国目前的信用风险度量技术、管理水平与成熟的市场经济国家风险管理水平相比,可以说相距甚远,特别是农村信用社信用风险的度量管理更是比较落后。因此我们建议我国的农村信用社和商业银行应该建立违约数据库,进一步细化贷款风险分级,加大计量模型的开发研究力度,健全风险管理体系和绩效考核体系等。
从信用风险防控方面,对国际先进银行信用风险管理组织框架和良好的信用风险文化基础进行了介绍,并对构建我国农村信用社的信用风险防控体系方面进行了深入探讨,重点提出了四种防控措施。一是构建完善的信用风险管理体系,培育健康的信贷文化;二是合理提取呆帐准备金,补偿贷款风险损失;三是合理贷款定价,平衡风险收益关系;四是农村信用社应采取信贷资金多元配置的方式来分散信用风险。
In the reforms of recent years, rural credit cooperatives have settled a great deal of bad assets and produced remarkable stage results. But it is very far from the aim of rural credit cooperative.
The final aim of the reform of rural credit cooperative is to establish a financial system to serve agriculture, the countryside and farmers. The reform is going on. There are a series of long standing mistaken ideas of knowledge and it s practical operation in the present reform progress and tendency in respect of the rural credit cooperative’s property right , management system and the organizational mechanism design, the share of the interests, etc. The pattern of the stock holding system reform may have a tendency of deviating from serving“three agriculture problems”. The dual management of the central and local governments would probably face local fiscal risk and moral hazard problems. Perhaps, it is not suitable for the provincial credit cooperative to union to assume the government’s supervision function. The too high level of the dividend may cause the confliction of t he role between the administrative personnel and the common members. All the problems would be settled in the reforming.
Through analyzing the bank credit risk management principle, the way of management, the correlation theories and the analysis of bank credit risk management case, this article discusses the development direction and the essential method of credit risk management for rural credit cooperatives in China.
Concerning risk management analysis of rural credit cooperatives, this article found the problems of risk (including credit risk, marketing risk, operating risk) management for rural credit cooperative are most obvious. Especially in the credit risk management for rural credit cooperative, the ability of controlling risk and the level of management technology is in low condition. The qualitative analysis are many, the quantitative analysis are few. There is no organization guaranty and good credit culture in the credit risk management for rural credit cooperatives。
From distinguishing credit risk angle, we summarize methods of identifying credit risks in west banks, and then we found, there are many problems on the process of distinguishing credit risks of the loan to our country rural area credit cooperative and the commercial bank. So we bring forward beneficial suggestions on improving our country rural credit cooperatives’credit risk distinguishing aspect,including: we should construct the strict responsibility investigation system, and establish inspection system that takes risk as core, and reform the credit investigation way at present, and establish the credit investigation pattern which unifies qualitative analysis and the quantitative analysis, and roundly implement loan five level of classified method.
From credit risk measurement angle, comparing with developed country, we have very long way to go in level and technique of credit risk measurement, especially for rural credit cooperatives. We suggest that we need establish violation database, further refine loan risk graduation, pay more attention to develop and research measuring model, and perfect risk management system and achievement inspection system.
From credit risk controlling angle, we first discuss credit risk managing organization and good base on credit risk culture, and second we discuss deeply how to establish system of credit risk controlling for rural credit cooperatives, bring forward four kinds controlling measurement. First, we should construct perfect risk management system, cultivate good credit culture; Second, we reasonably extract reserve fund for bad debts to compensate loan risk loss; Third, we need fix loan price reasonably to balance relation between risk and income; Forth, we should adopt the way of multi-dimensional disposition for credit fund to disperse credit risk
农村信用社改革的终极目的是构建服务于农业、农村、农民的金融服务体系,目前的改革进展与趋势在产权制度安排、管理体制与组织机制设计、利益分享等方面还未达成共识,改革还在推进中。诚然,农村信用社股份制改革模式有可能出现背离服务“三农”的倾向,中央与地方政府双层管理可能面临地方财政风险和道德风险问题,省级信用合作联社可能不宜代行政府管理职能,农村信用社分红水平过高可能会导致管理层与一般社员的角色冲突。这些诸多问题都要在改革中解决。
本文通过对农村信用社信用风险管理一般原则、管理方法、相关理论和信用社信用风险管理的案例进行分析,探讨我国农信社信用风险管理的发展方向和基本方法。
在对农信社信用风险管理现状的分析上,本文得到:目前农村信用社的风险管理(信用风险、市场风险、操作风险)问题还尤为突出,特别是在农村信用社的信用风险管理方面,农村信用社的风险防控能力十分低下,信用风险控制和管理技术落后,风险识别能力低,定量分析少,基本上以简单的定性分析为主,信用风险的管理无组织保证,更未形成信用风险管理的良好文化。
从信用风险识别的角度,总结了西方银行信用风险的识别方法,发现我国农村信用社和商业银行的贷前、贷后的信用风险识别存在诸多问题,因此在改进我国农村信用社信用风险识别方面提出有益建议,主要包括:构建严格的责任追究制;建立以风险为核心的考核体系;改革目前信贷尽职调查方式,建立统一的定性分析与定量分析相结合的尽职调查模式;全面实施贷款的五级分类方法。
在信用风险的度量方面,我国目前的信用风险度量技术、管理水平与成熟的市场经济国家风险管理水平相比,可以说相距甚远,特别是农村信用社信用风险的度量管理更是比较落后。因此我们建议我国的农村信用社和商业银行应该建立违约数据库,进一步细化贷款风险分级,加大计量模型的开发研究力度,健全风险管理体系和绩效考核体系等。
从信用风险防控方面,对国际先进银行信用风险管理组织框架和良好的信用风险文化基础进行了介绍,并对构建我国农村信用社的信用风险防控体系方面进行了深入探讨,重点提出了四种防控措施。一是构建完善的信用风险管理体系,培育健康的信贷文化;二是合理提取呆帐准备金,补偿贷款风险损失;三是合理贷款定价,平衡风险收益关系;四是农村信用社应采取信贷资金多元配置的方式来分散信用风险。
In the reforms of recent years, rural credit cooperatives have settled a great deal of bad assets and produced remarkable stage results. But it is very far from the aim of rural credit cooperative.
The final aim of the reform of rural credit cooperative is to establish a financial system to serve agriculture, the countryside and farmers. The reform is going on. There are a series of long standing mistaken ideas of knowledge and it s practical operation in the present reform progress and tendency in respect of the rural credit cooperative’s property right , management system and the organizational mechanism design, the share of the interests, etc. The pattern of the stock holding system reform may have a tendency of deviating from serving“three agriculture problems”. The dual management of the central and local governments would probably face local fiscal risk and moral hazard problems. Perhaps, it is not suitable for the provincial credit cooperative to union to assume the government’s supervision function. The too high level of the dividend may cause the confliction of t he role between the administrative personnel and the common members. All the problems would be settled in the reforming.
Through analyzing the bank credit risk management principle, the way of management, the correlation theories and the analysis of bank credit risk management case, this article discusses the development direction and the essential method of credit risk management for rural credit cooperatives in China.
Concerning risk management analysis of rural credit cooperatives, this article found the problems of risk (including credit risk, marketing risk, operating risk) management for rural credit cooperative are most obvious. Especially in the credit risk management for rural credit cooperative, the ability of controlling risk and the level of management technology is in low condition. The qualitative analysis are many, the quantitative analysis are few. There is no organization guaranty and good credit culture in the credit risk management for rural credit cooperatives。
From distinguishing credit risk angle, we summarize methods of identifying credit risks in west banks, and then we found, there are many problems on the process of distinguishing credit risks of the loan to our country rural area credit cooperative and the commercial bank. So we bring forward beneficial suggestions on improving our country rural credit cooperatives’credit risk distinguishing aspect,including: we should construct the strict responsibility investigation system, and establish inspection system that takes risk as core, and reform the credit investigation way at present, and establish the credit investigation pattern which unifies qualitative analysis and the quantitative analysis, and roundly implement loan five level of classified method.
From credit risk measurement angle, comparing with developed country, we have very long way to go in level and technique of credit risk measurement, especially for rural credit cooperatives. We suggest that we need establish violation database, further refine loan risk graduation, pay more attention to develop and research measuring model, and perfect risk management system and achievement inspection system.
From credit risk controlling angle, we first discuss credit risk managing organization and good base on credit risk culture, and second we discuss deeply how to establish system of credit risk controlling for rural credit cooperatives, bring forward four kinds controlling measurement. First, we should construct perfect risk management system, cultivate good credit culture; Second, we reasonably extract reserve fund for bad debts to compensate loan risk loss; Third, we need fix loan price reasonably to balance relation between risk and income; Forth, we should adopt the way of multi-dimensional disposition for credit fund to disperse credit risk
引文
[1]田莹.我国商业银行信用风险管理技术研究[D].沈阳:东北大学, 2004
[2] Basel committee on Banking supervision. The New Basel Canpital Accord. April 2003
[3]赵晓菊.信息不对称与金融风险的控制管理[J].国际金融研究, 1999(5)
[4]彭江平.商业银行风险管理的理论与实践[M].西南财经大学出版社, 2001
[5]沈沛龙,任若恩.现代信用风险管理模型和方法的比较研究.经济科学, 2002(3). P32-41
[6]章彰.商业银行信用风险管理――兼论巴塞尔新资本协议.北京:中国人民大学出版社, 2002, P119-128
[7]崔滨洲.新巴塞尔协议与中国银行业的全面风险管理[J].武汉大学学报.哲学社会科学版, 2004(3)
[8]施华强.中国国有商业银行不良贷款内生性:一个基于双重软约束的分析框架.金融研究, 2004(6), P1-16
[9]惠晓峰,孙嘉鹏.商业银行信用风险识别:信用矩阵的实证应用研究.国际金融研究, 2004(3), P21-27
[10]徐林海.构建商业银行全面风险管理模式的探讨[N].天润财经, 2005.5.21
[11]武剑.我国商业银行内部评级体系(IRB)的建立与应用——花旗银行风险评级模式的借鉴和启示[J].新金融, 2002(7)
[12]张玲,张佳林.信用风险评估方法发展趋势[J].预测, 2000.4, P72-73
[13]李军彦.内部评级法.银行业风险管理新趋向[J].农村金融研究, 2003(1)
[14]张波.巴塞尔新协议与银行内部评级[J].中国城市金融, 2001(9-10)
[15]杨晓东.商业银行信用风险计量研究——IRB法的核心技术.兰州学刊, 2004.4
[16]邓云胜,刘莉亚.商业银行内部信用评级方法的比较研究.兰州学刊, 2004.5
[17] Angelo Arvanitis and Jon Gregory. Credit: The Complete Guide to Pricing, Hedging and Risk Management, p2-p6, Risk Waters Group Ltd, 2001
[18]汪其昌.银行信贷信用风险分析和度量.第一版.上海社会科学院出版社, 2000.11
[19] [英]鲍勃·斯坦纳著.李杰,郭福强,孙磊译.核心金融概念.第一版.华夏出版社, 2000.11
[20]梁琪.商业银行信贷风险度量研究.第一版.中国金融出版社, 2005.5
[21]中国银行业监督管理委员会农村信用社贷款风险五级分类领导小组办公室.农村合作金融机构贷款五级分类培训手册
[22]巴塞尔银行监督管理委员会公布的巴塞尔新资本协议
[23] [瑞士]汉斯·乌里希·德瑞克著.查萍,麦坚时译.金融服务运营风险管理手册.第一版.中信出版社, 2004.6
[24]陈仕亮主编.风险管理.第一版.西南财经大学出版社, 1994.8
[25] [美]詹姆斯·托宾,斯蒂芬·S·戈卢布著.张杰,陈未译.货币,信贷与资本. .第一版.东北财经大学出版社, 2000.4
[26]易宪容,赵春明主编..行为金融学.第一版.社会科学文献出版社, 2004.8
[27]杨磊.农信联社变身商业银行[N] . 21世纪经济报道, 2003208207.
[28] Greg M. Gupton, Daniel Gates and Lea V. Carty: Bank-Loan Loss Given Default, Moody’s Investors Service, Global Credit Research, November 2000.
[29] Basle Committee on Banking Supervision, Credit Risk Modeling: Current Practice and Applications, Consultative Paper, Basle, April 1999.
[30] Asarnow, E., Managing Bank Loan Porfolios for Total Return, Paper preserted at a conference on A New Market Equilibrium for the Credit Business, Frankfurt, Germany, March 11, 1999.
[31] Altman E.I., and A. Saunders, Credit Risk Measurement: Development over the last Twenty Years, Journal of Banking and Finance , December 1997: 1721-1742
[32]周剑波.贷款风险度量在农村信用社贷款管理中的应用[J].海南金融, 2004 (10)
[33]成思危.改革与发展:推进中国的农村金融[M ].经济科学出版社, 2005.
[34]李青.谈改革进程中欠发达地区农村信用社的风险管理[J].贵州财经学院学报, 2006(2) (总121)
[35]中国银行业监督管理委员会法规文件汇编[G].中国银行业监督管理委员会办公厅政策法规部, 2004.
[36]刘明.试析农村信用社改革的四大误区.西北农林科技大学学报(社会科学版) [J], 2005.3 [37 ]夏文慧,郑冲,赵郭陈.我国农村信用社面临的风险与应对措施[J].农业经济, 2003.4
[2] Basel committee on Banking supervision. The New Basel Canpital Accord. April 2003
[3]赵晓菊.信息不对称与金融风险的控制管理[J].国际金融研究, 1999(5)
[4]彭江平.商业银行风险管理的理论与实践[M].西南财经大学出版社, 2001
[5]沈沛龙,任若恩.现代信用风险管理模型和方法的比较研究.经济科学, 2002(3). P32-41
[6]章彰.商业银行信用风险管理――兼论巴塞尔新资本协议.北京:中国人民大学出版社, 2002, P119-128
[7]崔滨洲.新巴塞尔协议与中国银行业的全面风险管理[J].武汉大学学报.哲学社会科学版, 2004(3)
[8]施华强.中国国有商业银行不良贷款内生性:一个基于双重软约束的分析框架.金融研究, 2004(6), P1-16
[9]惠晓峰,孙嘉鹏.商业银行信用风险识别:信用矩阵的实证应用研究.国际金融研究, 2004(3), P21-27
[10]徐林海.构建商业银行全面风险管理模式的探讨[N].天润财经, 2005.5.21
[11]武剑.我国商业银行内部评级体系(IRB)的建立与应用——花旗银行风险评级模式的借鉴和启示[J].新金融, 2002(7)
[12]张玲,张佳林.信用风险评估方法发展趋势[J].预测, 2000.4, P72-73
[13]李军彦.内部评级法.银行业风险管理新趋向[J].农村金融研究, 2003(1)
[14]张波.巴塞尔新协议与银行内部评级[J].中国城市金融, 2001(9-10)
[15]杨晓东.商业银行信用风险计量研究——IRB法的核心技术.兰州学刊, 2004.4
[16]邓云胜,刘莉亚.商业银行内部信用评级方法的比较研究.兰州学刊, 2004.5
[17] Angelo Arvanitis and Jon Gregory. Credit: The Complete Guide to Pricing, Hedging and Risk Management, p2-p6, Risk Waters Group Ltd, 2001
[18]汪其昌.银行信贷信用风险分析和度量.第一版.上海社会科学院出版社, 2000.11
[19] [英]鲍勃·斯坦纳著.李杰,郭福强,孙磊译.核心金融概念.第一版.华夏出版社, 2000.11
[20]梁琪.商业银行信贷风险度量研究.第一版.中国金融出版社, 2005.5
[21]中国银行业监督管理委员会农村信用社贷款风险五级分类领导小组办公室.农村合作金融机构贷款五级分类培训手册
[22]巴塞尔银行监督管理委员会公布的巴塞尔新资本协议
[23] [瑞士]汉斯·乌里希·德瑞克著.查萍,麦坚时译.金融服务运营风险管理手册.第一版.中信出版社, 2004.6
[24]陈仕亮主编.风险管理.第一版.西南财经大学出版社, 1994.8
[25] [美]詹姆斯·托宾,斯蒂芬·S·戈卢布著.张杰,陈未译.货币,信贷与资本. .第一版.东北财经大学出版社, 2000.4
[26]易宪容,赵春明主编..行为金融学.第一版.社会科学文献出版社, 2004.8
[27]杨磊.农信联社变身商业银行[N] . 21世纪经济报道, 2003208207.
[28] Greg M. Gupton, Daniel Gates and Lea V. Carty: Bank-Loan Loss Given Default, Moody’s Investors Service, Global Credit Research, November 2000.
[29] Basle Committee on Banking Supervision, Credit Risk Modeling: Current Practice and Applications, Consultative Paper, Basle, April 1999.
[30] Asarnow, E., Managing Bank Loan Porfolios for Total Return, Paper preserted at a conference on A New Market Equilibrium for the Credit Business, Frankfurt, Germany, March 11, 1999.
[31] Altman E.I., and A. Saunders, Credit Risk Measurement: Development over the last Twenty Years, Journal of Banking and Finance , December 1997: 1721-1742
[32]周剑波.贷款风险度量在农村信用社贷款管理中的应用[J].海南金融, 2004 (10)
[33]成思危.改革与发展:推进中国的农村金融[M ].经济科学出版社, 2005.
[34]李青.谈改革进程中欠发达地区农村信用社的风险管理[J].贵州财经学院学报, 2006(2) (总121)
[35]中国银行业监督管理委员会法规文件汇编[G].中国银行业监督管理委员会办公厅政策法规部, 2004.
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