我国港口国监督检查选船机制的研究及实际应用
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摘要
港口国监督(PSC)作为船旗国监督的补充在国际海事监管中正发挥着越来越重要的作用,其选船机制对于有效利用有限的港口国监督资源具有举足轻重的作用。本文从介绍港口国监督的产生背景、概念、目的入手,系统、全面分析港口国监督检查选船机制的发展及研究现状,包括东京备忘录组织在内的各备忘录组织以及其他国家的相关基本内容及特点分析,从数学理论、实践应用、法律法规等不同角度,查找目前我国所采取的港口国监督检查选船机制及其应用过程中的不足之处,进而提出构建中国港口国监督检查选船系统新的观点与建议。
本文以东京备忘录的港口国选船机制为研究对象,运用信用管理理论、高斯分布临界法、并根据“马太效应”的正反馈效应,提出了结合正反馈限制广义相加模型的修正方法。在最后,本文提供了具体演算实例,并分析了改善后的选船机制的优越性:
(1)充分考虑了某船舶在某一时刻的状态与同时期整体船舶样本数据之间的相对关系。
(2)采用高斯分布的方法进行了连续的正反馈修。
(3)现有的东京备忘录组织的选船机制是简单的线性模型,不考虑对历史数据的分析和反馈;而新的模型由于采用了当今世界统计领域最为领先的GAM模型,甚至比神经网络的计算方法还要灵活和精确。
(4)新的选船机制可以结合该样本数据的检查特征,并将该特征予以分析和量化,具有较强的针对性。
(5)新的选船机制可以结合新的参数,诸如事故因素、公司管理因素等等,具有较强的延伸性。
Port state control is playing more important role in the international maritime monitoring as a supplementary of flag supervision, whose ship selection mechanism has a vital role in using the limited port state control resources effectively. This thesis starts from introducing the background, concept; purpose of PSC, analyzing the research and development of PSC ship selection mechanism systematically and comprehensively, it includes Memorandum organizations such as Tokyo Memorandum as well as the basic related content and analysis of characteristics of other countries. Looking for the shortage of PSC ship selection mechanism and in the process of its application from the view of mathematical theory, practice, laws and regulations. Then the thesis proposes new view and suggestions of building PSC ship selection system.
The thesis studies the port state ship selection mechanism of Tokyo MOU using the theory of credit management, Gaussian critical law, and brings forward correction method which combines with the positive feedback restriction generalized additive model according to the additive feedback effect "Matthew Effect", in conclusion, the thesis provides the concrete examples of figures, and analyzes the superiority of improved ship selection mechanism.
(1) Having taken into account the relative relationship of ship state at some moment and the whole ship sample data during the same time fully
(2) Doing positive feedback repair consecutively using the Gaussian distribution method.
(3) The existing ship selection mechanism of Tokyo Moue is simple linear model, without considering the analysis and feedback of historical data; but the new model is even more flexible and precise than the computing method of neural network for adopting the most leading GAM model in the statistical field in the world.
(4) The new ship selection mechanism can be combined with the inspection characteristics of sample data, and analyze and quantify the characteristics, so it is targeted highly.
(5) The new ship selection mechanism can be combined with new parameters, such as accidents, corporate managements, so that it can extend strongly.
本文以东京备忘录的港口国选船机制为研究对象,运用信用管理理论、高斯分布临界法、并根据“马太效应”的正反馈效应,提出了结合正反馈限制广义相加模型的修正方法。在最后,本文提供了具体演算实例,并分析了改善后的选船机制的优越性:
(1)充分考虑了某船舶在某一时刻的状态与同时期整体船舶样本数据之间的相对关系。
(2)采用高斯分布的方法进行了连续的正反馈修。
(3)现有的东京备忘录组织的选船机制是简单的线性模型,不考虑对历史数据的分析和反馈;而新的模型由于采用了当今世界统计领域最为领先的GAM模型,甚至比神经网络的计算方法还要灵活和精确。
(4)新的选船机制可以结合该样本数据的检查特征,并将该特征予以分析和量化,具有较强的针对性。
(5)新的选船机制可以结合新的参数,诸如事故因素、公司管理因素等等,具有较强的延伸性。
Port state control is playing more important role in the international maritime monitoring as a supplementary of flag supervision, whose ship selection mechanism has a vital role in using the limited port state control resources effectively. This thesis starts from introducing the background, concept; purpose of PSC, analyzing the research and development of PSC ship selection mechanism systematically and comprehensively, it includes Memorandum organizations such as Tokyo Memorandum as well as the basic related content and analysis of characteristics of other countries. Looking for the shortage of PSC ship selection mechanism and in the process of its application from the view of mathematical theory, practice, laws and regulations. Then the thesis proposes new view and suggestions of building PSC ship selection system.
The thesis studies the port state ship selection mechanism of Tokyo MOU using the theory of credit management, Gaussian critical law, and brings forward correction method which combines with the positive feedback restriction generalized additive model according to the additive feedback effect "Matthew Effect", in conclusion, the thesis provides the concrete examples of figures, and analyzes the superiority of improved ship selection mechanism.
(1) Having taken into account the relative relationship of ship state at some moment and the whole ship sample data during the same time fully
(2) Doing positive feedback repair consecutively using the Gaussian distribution method.
(3) The existing ship selection mechanism of Tokyo Moue is simple linear model, without considering the analysis and feedback of historical data; but the new model is even more flexible and precise than the computing method of neural network for adopting the most leading GAM model in the statistical field in the world.
(4) The new ship selection mechanism can be combined with the inspection characteristics of sample data, and analyze and quantify the characteristics, so it is targeted highly.
(5) The new ship selection mechanism can be combined with new parameters, such as accidents, corporate managements, so that it can extend strongly.
引文
[1]杨新宅、谢辉,港口国监督,大连海事大学出版社;
[2]艾亚钊,港口国监督(PSC)产生背景及原因分析,交通科技,2003年;
[3]港口国管理船舶检查要点,中远(香港)集团有限公司,大连海事大学出版社
[4]ASIA-PACIFIC PORT STATE CONTROL MANUAL,国家海事研究委员会港口国监督分委会
[5]水上千之,船舶国籍与方便旗船籍,大连海事大学出版社,2000年;
[6]On the effectiveness of port state control inspections,Pierre Cariou,Transportation Research Part E;
[7]徐俊池编译,港口国监督己摆上IMO的议事日程,中国海事,2000年第5期,中国海事局主办,P45
[8]高德毅主编,港口国监督检查问答,大连海事大学出版社,2002年6月,P3
[9]董玖丰,海上安全的最后防线,北京:人民交通出版社,1997
[10]于晓丹,区域间港口国监督的发展现状及实施比较,武汉船舶职业技术学院学报,2006年;
[11]黄志,对主要水域港口国检查现状及发展趋势的分析,集美大学学报,2004年;
[12]ANNUAL REPORT ON PORT STATE CONTROL IN THE ASIA-PACIFIC REGION 2007(亚太地区港口国监督2007年报)
[13]陈向良,港口国监督效率与质量控制研究,硕士论文,大连海事大学2007
[14]吴兆麟编著,海事调查与分析,大连海事大学出版社,1993,5 P109
[15]杨志,港口国监督检查“选船”标准的量化研究硕士论文大连海事大学2002
[16]Econometric analysis on the effect of port state control inspections on the probability of casualty Can targeting of substandard ships for inspections be improved? Sabine Knapp,Marine Policy 31(2007) 550-563:
[17]http://www.parismou.org/ParisMOU/home/MEI/xp/menu.3985/default.aspx
[18]Paris MOU Secretariat.THE PARIS MOU oN PORT STATE CONTROL ANNUAL REPORT,2007
[19]亚太地区港口国监督手册,中华人民共和国海事局;
[20]http://www.tokyo-mou.org/
[21]http://www.uscg.mil/hq/g-m/pscweb/index.htm
[22]澳大利亚船舶检查决策支持系统和相关策略;
[23]周驰,港口国监督检查选船如何避免产生“马太效应”中国海事,2008;
[24]正确理解和运用“马太效应”[j]地质科技管理,1994 83-84
[25]陈伯卫,国际港口国监督检查新动向,航海技术,2005年;
[26]李勇,PSC的法律依据与检查,中国海事,2002年第5期,中华人民共利国海事局主办,P31
[27]韦之杰,论船舶安全检查工作的评价指标体系,中国海事,2000年第2期,P11-14
[28]徐高法 港口国滞留决策标准的统一性研究,硕士论文,大连海事大学2004
[29]王宏波 郝勇,港口国监控中黑—灰—白名单的确定方法,武汉理工人学航运学院,交通科技,2004年第一期
[30]the Thomas Theorem and the Malthew Effect,Robert K.Merton,Social Forces,Vol.74,NO.2(Dec.1995)
[31]杨丹,吴兆麟,运用综合评估等级法确定PSC检查的重点,大连海事大学航海学院,大连海事大学学报,1998年03期
[2]艾亚钊,港口国监督(PSC)产生背景及原因分析,交通科技,2003年;
[3]港口国管理船舶检查要点,中远(香港)集团有限公司,大连海事大学出版社
[4]ASIA-PACIFIC PORT STATE CONTROL MANUAL,国家海事研究委员会港口国监督分委会
[5]水上千之,船舶国籍与方便旗船籍,大连海事大学出版社,2000年;
[6]On the effectiveness of port state control inspections,Pierre Cariou,Transportation Research Part E;
[7]徐俊池编译,港口国监督己摆上IMO的议事日程,中国海事,2000年第5期,中国海事局主办,P45
[8]高德毅主编,港口国监督检查问答,大连海事大学出版社,2002年6月,P3
[9]董玖丰,海上安全的最后防线,北京:人民交通出版社,1997
[10]于晓丹,区域间港口国监督的发展现状及实施比较,武汉船舶职业技术学院学报,2006年;
[11]黄志,对主要水域港口国检查现状及发展趋势的分析,集美大学学报,2004年;
[12]ANNUAL REPORT ON PORT STATE CONTROL IN THE ASIA-PACIFIC REGION 2007(亚太地区港口国监督2007年报)
[13]陈向良,港口国监督效率与质量控制研究,硕士论文,大连海事大学2007
[14]吴兆麟编著,海事调查与分析,大连海事大学出版社,1993,5 P109
[15]杨志,港口国监督检查“选船”标准的量化研究硕士论文大连海事大学2002
[16]Econometric analysis on the effect of port state control inspections on the probability of casualty Can targeting of substandard ships for inspections be improved? Sabine Knapp,Marine Policy 31(2007) 550-563:
[17]http://www.parismou.org/ParisMOU/home/MEI/xp/menu.3985/default.aspx
[18]Paris MOU Secretariat.THE PARIS MOU oN PORT STATE CONTROL ANNUAL REPORT,2007
[19]亚太地区港口国监督手册,中华人民共和国海事局;
[20]http://www.tokyo-mou.org/
[21]http://www.uscg.mil/hq/g-m/pscweb/index.htm
[22]澳大利亚船舶检查决策支持系统和相关策略;
[23]周驰,港口国监督检查选船如何避免产生“马太效应”中国海事,2008;
[24]正确理解和运用“马太效应”[j]地质科技管理,1994 83-84
[25]陈伯卫,国际港口国监督检查新动向,航海技术,2005年;
[26]李勇,PSC的法律依据与检查,中国海事,2002年第5期,中华人民共利国海事局主办,P31
[27]韦之杰,论船舶安全检查工作的评价指标体系,中国海事,2000年第2期,P11-14
[28]徐高法 港口国滞留决策标准的统一性研究,硕士论文,大连海事大学2004
[29]王宏波 郝勇,港口国监控中黑—灰—白名单的确定方法,武汉理工人学航运学院,交通科技,2004年第一期
[30]the Thomas Theorem and the Malthew Effect,Robert K.Merton,Social Forces,Vol.74,NO.2(Dec.1995)
[31]杨丹,吴兆麟,运用综合评估等级法确定PSC检查的重点,大连海事大学航海学院,大连海事大学学报,1998年03期